Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Daily associations between alcohol and sexual behavior in young adults: Low-level intoxication was associated with increased likelihood of engaging in oral sex or protected intercourse (relative to no sex)

Simons, J. S., Simons, R. M., Maisto, S. A., Hahn, A. M., & Walters, K. J. (2018). Daily associations between alcohol and sexual behavior in young adults. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology, 26(1), 36-48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pha0000163

Abstract: We tested within-person effects of alcohol on sexual behavior among young adults in a longitudinal burst design (N = 213, 6,487 days) using data collected from a previously published parent study. We differentiated effects of alcohol on likelihood of sexual activity versus use of protection against sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) or pregnancy on intercourse occasions by testing a multilevel multinomial model with 4 outcomes (no sex, oral sex without intercourse, protected intercourse, and unprotected intercourse). At the within-person level, effects of alcohol were hypothesized to be conditional upon level of intoxication (i.e., curvilinear effect). We also tested effects of four between-person moderators: gender, typical length of relationship with sexual partners, and two facets of self-control (effortful control and reactivity). Consistent with our hypothesis, low-level intoxication was associated with increased likelihood of engaging in oral sex or protected intercourse (relative to no sex) but was not related to likelihood of unprotected intercourse. The effect of intoxication on unprotected versus protected intercourse was an accelerating curve, significantly increasing likelihood of unprotected intercourse at high levels of intoxication. Between-person factors moderated associations between intoxication and sexual behavior. Effects of intoxication on both protected and unprotected intercourse were diminished for individuals with more familiar sexual partners. Effortful control exhibited a protective effect, reducing the effects of intoxication on likelihood of unprotected intercourse. Hypothesized effects of reactivity were not supported. Intoxication was a stronger predictor of oral sex and protected intercourse (but not unprotected intercourse) for women relative to men. Results highlight the inherent complexities of the alcohol-sexual behavior nexus.

Marmosets would systematically share more food with immatures when no audience was present; helpers do not take advantage of the opportunity to engage in reputation management. Rather, the results appear to reflect a genuine concern for the immatures' well-being

Reverse audience effects on helping in cooperatively breeding marmoset monkeys. R. K. Brügger, T. Kappeler-Schmalzriedt, J. M. Burkart. Royal Society Biology Letters, 10.1098/rsbl.2018.0030

Abstract: Cooperatively breeding common marmosets show substantial variation in the amount of help they provide. Pay-to-stay and social prestige models of helping attribute this variation to audience effects, i.e. that individuals help more if group members can witness their interactions with immatures, whereas models of kin selection, group augmentation or those stressing the need to gain parenting experience do not predict any audience effects. We quantified the readiness of adult marmosets to share food in the presence or absence of other group members. Contrary to both predictions, we found a reverse audience effect on food-sharing behaviour: marmosets would systematically share more food with immatures when no audience was present. Thus, helping in common marmosets, at least in related family groups, does not support the pay-to-stay or the social prestige model, and helpers do not take advantage of the opportunity to engage in reputation management. Rather, the results appear to reflect a genuine concern for the immatures' well-being, which seems particularly strong when solely responsible for the immatures.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Myth and Measurement — The Case of Medical Bankruptcies

Myth and Measurement — The Case of Medical Bankruptcies. Carlos Dobkin et al. N Engl J Med 2018; 378:1076-1078, 10.1056/NEJMp1716604. March 22, 2018

Though there is compelling evidence that medical expenses do cause bankruptcies in the United States, they may cause far fewer than has been claimed. Overemphasizing such events may distract from an understanding of the true nature of health-related economic hardship.

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During the push to pass the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama often described the “crushing cost of health care” that was causing millions of Americans to “live every day just one accident or illness away from bankruptcy” and repeatedly stated that the high cost of health care “causes a bankruptcy in America every 30 seconds.” Stories of illnesses and injuries with financial consequences so severe that they caused households to file for bankruptcy were used as a major argument in support of the 2010 Affordable Care Act. And in 2014, Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) cited medical bills as “the leading cause of personal bankruptcy” when introducing the Medical Bankruptcy Fairness Act, which would have made the bankruptcy process more forgiving for “medically distressed debtors.” But it turns out that the existing evidence for “medical bankruptcies” suffers from a basic statistical fallacy; when we eliminated this problem, we found compelling evidence of the existence of medical bankruptcies but discovered that medical expenses cause many fewer bankruptcies than has been claimed.

Policymakers’ beliefs about the frequency of medical bankruptcies are based primarily on two highprofile articles that claim that medical events cause approximately 60% of all bankruptcies in the United States.1,2 In these studies, people who had gone bankrupt were asked whether they’d experienced health-related financial stress such as substantial medical bills or income loss due to illness. People were also asked whether they went bankrupt because of medical bills. People who reported any of these events were described as having experienced a medical bankruptcy. This approach assumes that whenever a person who reports having substantial medical bills experiences a bankruptcy, the bankruptcy was caused by the medical debt. The fact that, according to a 2014 report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, about 20% of Americans have substantial medical debt, yet in a given year less than 1% of Americans file for personal bankruptcy, suggests that this assumption is problematic.  Clearly, many people face medical debt but do not go bankrupt.  Even after correction for overly broad definitions of “medical” expenses, 3 the existing, widely cited evidence on medical bankruptcy is built on the fallacy that when two things occur together there is necessarily a causal relationship between them.

To understand the problem, consider an analogous line of inquiry: suppose we want to know which factors increase a person’s chances of becoming a technology billionaire. Investigation of recent technology giants might suggest that dropping out of college is a high-return strategy (think: Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg [dropping out of Harvard seems to have a particularly high payoff]). By examining only college dropouts who have already became technology billionaires rather than all college dropouts, this analysis misses the fact that most college dropouts do not go on to lucrative careers in the tech business. A similar problem pervades the current literature on medical bankruptcy. The studies mentioned above examine the experiences only of people who went bankrupt, but it is impossible to infer the role of medical expenses in causing bankruptcy without information on the proportion of the population with large medical expenses that did not go bankrupt.

To estimate the share of bankruptcies actually caused by medical factors, we therefore selected a sample of people who were admitted to the hospital in California and tracked information on their annual credit reports, including whether and when they filed for bankruptcy. Because we examined the relationship between when people go to the hospital and the timing of any bankruptcy, we were able to estimate the increase in bankruptcy filings caused by illness or injury, rather than the fraction of people filing for bankruptcy who happen to have substantial medical expenses.  Our study was based on a random stratified sample of adults 25 to 64 years of age who, between 2003 and 2007, were admitted to the hospital (for a non–pregnancyrelated stay) for the first time in at least 3 years. We linked more than half a million such people to their detailed credit-report records for each year from the period 2002–2011. The graph shows the results of our analysis.  The results show a clear effect of hospital admission on bankruptcy: the rate of bankruptcies rises sharply in the years after hospital admission, and this change is statistically significant (at conventional levels) both 1 and 4 years after the admission, after which bankruptcies appear to level off. This finding indicates that the expenses that result from the illness or injury that caused the hospital admission — for example, out-of-pocket medical costs and lost labor income — cause some people to file for bankruptcy.  However, the magnitude of the bankruptcy effect is much smaller than previously thought: we estimate that hospitalizations cause only 4% of personal bankruptcies among nonelderly U.S. adults, which is an order of magnitude smaller than the previous estimates described above.

We calculated this estimate as follows: the graph shows that, on average, a hospitalization increases the annual probability of going bankrupt in the following 4 years by 0.004. Multiplying this figure by the annual hospitalization rate of 7.8% for our population (which we calculated using the 1999–2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey) reveals that 0.031% (0.004 × 0.078) of the population goes bankrupt each year as the result of a hospitalization.  Given that the annual household bankruptcy rate is 0.8% among the nonelderly,4 hospitalizations cause about 4% (0.031 ÷ 0.8) of bankruptcies among nonelderly adults. A similar calculation for a subsample of uninsured adults reveals that even in that population, hospitalizations are responsible for only 6% of bankruptcies4; for this population, the effect of a hospitalization on the likelihood of bankruptcy is (not surprisingly) larger, but the hospitalization rate is lower than in the overall nonelderly population.

Of course, these results do not cover all potential medical bankruptcies.  They do not consider hospitalizations for children or for the elderly — although in other work we found that hospitalizations have no effect on bankruptcy rates among the elderly.4 Our results are also specific to our population — people in California hospitalized for non–childbirth- related conditions who have not had a hospital admission in the previous 3 years (although they may, and often do, have additional admissions over the subsequent years). However, as we have described elsewhere, recent related research using different sample populations (but also using large administrative data sets and a similar research design) also revealed a limited effect of health shocks on bankruptcy rates.4 Perhaps most obviously, our analysis excludes illness and injuries that do not result in a hospital admission. However, our sample of hospitalized people is likely to include most people with large medical expenses: in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated that about 63% of people in the top 5% of annual medical spending (at least $8,433) had had a hospitalization in that year. This finding suggests that focusing on hospitalized people probably does not lead to vast underestimation of the effect of all illness and injury on bankruptcy rates.

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The Effect of Hospitalization on the Likelihood of Filing for Bankruptcy.

The x axis shows time relative to the index hospital admission. Each data point represents the proportion of people who filed for personal bankruptcy between the year before the start of our credit-report data and the indicated date, after adjustment for any patterns in bankruptcy rates by calendar year. The dashed line shows the estimates from fitting a flexible, nonlinear function quantifying the relationship between the timing of hospital admission and the bankruptcy rate, again with adjustment for calendar-year trends. (More detail on the sample and estimators can be found in Dobkin et al.4)
--Graph--

Our results also do not speak to the financial costs of hospital admissions outside the bankruptcy- filing decision. We have found that hospitalizations cause increased out-of-pocket spending on medical care, increased medical debt, and decreased employment and income.4 These costs may have considerable adverse consequences, and evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment indicates that they can be partially ameliorated by health insurance.5 But our findings suggest that medical factors play a much smaller role in causing U.S.  bankruptcies than has previously been claimed. Overemphasizing “medical bankruptcies” may distract from an understanding of the true nature of economic hardship arising from high-cost health problems.

1. Himmelstein DU, Warren E, Thorne D, Woolhandler S. Illness and injury as contributors to bankruptcy. Health Aff (Millwood) 2005; 24: Suppl Web Exclusives: W5- 63–W5-73.
2. Himmelstein DU, Thorne D, Warren E, Woolhandler S. Medical bankruptcy in the United States, 2007: results of a national study. Am J Med 2009; 122: 741-6.
3. Dranove D, Millenson ML. Medical bankruptcy: myth versus fact. Health Aff (Millwood) 2006; 25(2): w74-w83.
4. Dobkin C, Finkelstein A, Kluender R, Notowidigdo MJ. The economic consequences of hospital admissions. Am Econ Rev 2018; 108: 308-52.
5. Finkelstein A, Taubman S, Wright B, et al. The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: evidence from the first year. Q J Econ 2012; 127: 1057-106.  DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1716604

With a few hundred twins, authors examined genetic & environmental influence on all pairwise functional connections between 264 brain regions (~35,000 functional connections) & found high non-shared environmental influence across the entire connectome, moderate heritability in roughly half of all connections, & weak-to-moderate shared environmental influences

Genetic and environmental influence on the human functional connectome. Andrew E. Reineberg, Alexander S. Hatoum, John K. Hewitt, Marie T. Banich, Naomi P. Friedman. bioRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/277996

Abstract: Detailed mapping of genetic and environmental influences on the functional connectome is a crucial step toward developing intermediate phenotypes between genes and clinical diagnoses or cognitive abilities. Historical attempts to estimate the genetic etiology of the connectome have focused on large-scale brain networks - obscuring possible heterogeneity among or novel communities of small network subcomponents. In the current study, we analyze resting-state data from two, adult twin samples - 198 twins from the Colorado Longitudinal Twin Sample and 422 twins from the Human Connectome Project - to examine genetic and environmental influence on all pairwise functional connections between 264 brain regions (~35,000 functional connections). We find high non-shared environmental influence across the entire connectome, moderate heritability in roughly half of all connections, and weak-to-moderate shared environmental influences. The pattern of genetic influence across the connectome is related to a priori notions of functional brain networks but also highly heterogeneous as confirmed by a hierarchical clustering analysis of the genetic profile of all 264 regions. Additionally, we confirm genetic influences on connections are independent of genetic influences shared with a global summary measure of brain connectivity - an important validation analysis for future, high-dimensionality genetic neuroimaging studies. Together, our analyses reveal a novel genetic taxonomy of brain regions and have implications for studies employing multivariate signals for prediction purposes. Variation across the population in those neurobiological signals is influenced by genes and the environment in different spatial locations and to different degrees suggesting genetic risk factors may be limited to a subset of the connectome.

Behavioral evidence suggestive of frontal lobe pathology in the amnesic H.M.

Behavioral evidence suggestive of frontal lobe pathology in the amnesic H.M. William Winter. Brain and Cognition, Volume 123, June 2018, Pages 136-141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bandc.2018.03.005

Highlights
•    H.M. displayed behaviors that cannot be explained by temporal lobe amnesia.
•    Such behaviors have previously been attributed to amygdalar damage.
•    Frontal lobe lesions were detected by MRI and in post-mortem examination.
•    These behaviors are most parsimoniously explained as due to frontal lobe pathology.

Abstract: From the earliest published reports, Henry Gustav Molaison—who until his death in 2008 was known simply by his initials H.M.—was characterized as having a profound anterograde amnesia subsequent to mid temporal lobe resection, and that this amnestic condition was uncomplicated by other cognitive or behavioral impairments. Post-mortem neuropathological examination has detected—in addition to the expected temporal lobe lesions—previously unreported frontal lobe and white matter pathology, inviting questions concerning the behavioral and cognitive consequences that might result from such lesions. The purpose of this article is to recount published descriptions of a range of anomalous behaviors by H.M. that can not be explained by the memory impairments typically associated with anterograde amnesia, to counter previous claims that these behaviors are attributable to amygdalar damage, and to advance the interpretation that these behaviors are instead consistent with well-documented effects of frontal lobe pathology. Transcripts of interviews with H.M. which feature disjointed, often contradictory, and arguably confabulatory responses are presented in support of this argument.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Low Honesty & Openness & high Emotionality predicted the number of children; low Openness & high Conscientiousness predicted number of grandchildren; Extraversion was negatively related to the age at first birth; seems that personality is related to biological fitness in contemporary human populations

Revealing complex relations between personality and fitness: HEXACO personality traits, life-time reproductive success and the age at first birth. Janko Mededovic et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 129, 15 July 2018, Pages 143-148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.03.014

Highlights
•    We explored the relations between HEXACO personality traits and evolutionary fitness.
•    Low Honesty and Openness and high Emotionality predicted the number of children.
•    Low Openness and high Conscientiousness predicted the number of grandchildren.
•    Extraversion was negatively related to the age at first birth.
•    Findings suggest that HEXACO traits are likely under current natural selection.

Abstract: HEXACO personality framework represents one of the most prominent models of human personality traits. Despite of this, there are no empirical studies that estimate the fitness outcomes of HEXACO traits, although this topic represents a basic foundation for the study of the contemporary evolution of personality. In the present research we explored the relations between HEXACO personality traits, and three fitness indicators: the number of children, the number of grandchildren and the age at first birth. Participants were selected from the community population of individuals in a post-reproductive stage (N = 255; Mage = 64.9 years). Results from the regression analyses showed that the number of children was associated with lower scores on Honesty and Openness and higher scores on Emotionality; Agreeableness was positively associated with this criterion but only in males. The number of grandchildren was predicted by low Openness and marginally by high Conscientiousness, while Honesty had positive zero-order correlation with the criterion measure. Individuals with higher Extraversion tended to reproduce earlier in their lifetime. Findings contribute to the empirical data which suggest that personality is related to biological fitness in contemporary human populations: this means that personality is likely under natural selection and hence, it continues to evolve.

Women scored higher in Anxiety, Vulnerability, Openness to Emotions, Altruism, and Sympathy; men only scored higher (d > 0.20) in Excitement-seeking and Openness to Intellect

Sex differences in 30 facets of the five factor model of personality in the large public (N = 320,128). Petri J.Kajonius, John Johnson. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 129, 15 July 2018, Pages 126-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.03.026

Highlights
•    We studied the sex gap in 30 facet traits (IPIP-NEO) in a large US sample (N = 320,128).
•    Women scored higher (d > 0.50) in Anxiety, Vulnerability, Openness to Emotions, Altruism, and Sympathy.
•    Men only scored higher (d > 0.20) in Excitement-seeking and Openness to Intellect.

Abstract: The present study reports on the scope and size of sex differences in 30 personality facet traits, using one of the largest US samples to date (N = 320,128). The study was one of the first to utilize the open access version of the Five-Factor Model of personality (IPIP-NEO-120) in the large public. Overall, across age-groups 19–69 years old, women scored notably higher than men in Agreeableness (d = 0.58) and Neuroticism (d = 0.40). Specifically, women scored d > 0.50 in facet traits Anxiety, Vulnerability, Openness to Emotions, Altruism, and Sympathy, while men only scored slightly higher (d > 0.20) than women in facet traits Excitement-seeking and Openness to Intellect. Sex gaps in the five trait domains were fairly constant across all age-groups, with the exception for age-group 19–29 years old. The discussion centers on how to interpret effects sizes in sex differences in personality traits, and tentative consequences.


h/t: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf

Check also Sex Differences in the Big Five Model Personality Traits: A Behavior Genetics Exploration. Susan C. South,  Amber M. Jarnecke1, Colin E. Vize. Journal of Research in Personality, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/03/sex-differences-on-big-five-traints.html

The palliative function of system justification is more homogeneously distributed across individual &collective measures of social status than proposed by the theory, cause the function was unaffected either by society‐level inequality or by individual‐level social status

System justification enhances well‐being: A longitudinal analysis of the palliative function of system justification in 18 countries. Salvador Vargas‐Salfate et al. British Journal of Social Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12254

Abstract: According to the palliative function of ideology hypothesis proposed by System Justification Theory, endorsing system‐justifying beliefs is positively related to general psychological well‐being, because this fulfils existential, epistemic, and relational needs. We discuss and address three main issues: (1) the role of societal inequality, (2) comparisons by social status, and (3) cross‐sectional versus longitudinal research. We used a longitudinal survey of representative online samples (N = 5,901) from 18 countries. The results supported the main argument proposed by the theory, in that system justification was positively and significantly related to life satisfaction and negatively related to anxiety and depression. The pattern of results suggested that the palliative function of system justification is more homogeneously distributed across individual and collective measures of social status than proposed by the theory, because the function was unaffected either by society‐level inequality or by individual‐level social status. These results allow us to infer that one of the reasons for the high stability of social arrangements is located in the psychological domain of palliative effects.

Is belief superiority justified by superior knowledge?

Is belief superiority justified by superior knowledge? Michael P. Hall, Kaitlin T. Raimi. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Volume 76, May 2018, Pages 290–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2018.03.001

Highlights
•    People expressing belief superiority claim enhanced knowledge on that topic.
•    Belief superiority is unassociated with true knowledge of many political issues.
•    Belief superiority is associated with increased congenial selective exposure bias.
•    Manipulations of belief superiority decreased subsequent selective exposure.

Abstract: Individuals expressing belief superiority—the belief that one's views are superior to other viewpoints—perceive themselves as better informed about that topic, but no research has verified whether this perception is justified. The present research examined whether people expressing belief superiority on four political issues demonstrated superior knowledge or superior knowledge-seeking behavior. Despite perceiving themselves as more knowledgeable, knowledge assessments revealed that the belief superior exhibited the greatest gaps between their perceived and actual knowledge. When given the opportunity to pursue additional information in that domain, belief-superior individuals frequently favored agreeable over disagreeable information, but also indicated awareness of this bias. Lastly, experimentally manipulated feedback about one's knowledge had some success in affecting belief superiority and resulting information-seeking behavior. Specifically, when belief superiority is lowered, people attend to information they may have previously regarded as inferior. Implications of unjustified belief superiority and biased information pursuit for political discourse are discussed.

Keywords: Belief superiority; Knowledge; Selective exposure; Metacognition


Studying dream content using the archive and search engine on DreamBank.net: Sexual intercourse in dreams

Studying dream content using the archive and search engine on DreamBank.net. G. William Domhoff, Adam Schneider. Consciousness and Cognition, 17, 1238-1247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.concog.2008.06.010

3.3. Sexual intercourse in dreams

Although dreams and sexuality are often closely related in popular culture, perhaps in part due to Freud’s well-known theory concerning the hidden sexual meanings said to be present in most dreams, systematic studies of dream content suggest that there is very little explicit sexual content in dreams. In the Hall and Van de Castle (1966, p. 181) normative sample, only 12% of male dreams and 4% of women’s dreams had as much as a sensual thought or a romantic kiss.

Since our past research suggests that a relative handful of terms are usually used by adults in reporting their sexual activities in dreams, it is possible to attempt generic searches for references to sexual activities in dreams. Such searches will miss some references to sexual activities, and will pick up some false positives, such as ‘‘we decided not to have sex,” but the baselines and samples that are obtained are nonetheless useful for studying sexuality in dreams. The most useful terms for this purpose include the past and present tenses of ‘‘making love,” ‘‘having sex,” and ‘‘kissing.” Exact terms and euphemisms referring to sexual organs also can lead to references to sexual interactions. In studies of long dream series from individuals, it is possible, and indeed essential, to tailor the sexual references word string to include pet terms and idiosyncratic phrases, thereby making the searches even more encompassing.

For purposes of this paper, the focus will be on the frequency of sexual intercourse because terms like ‘‘kissing” and terms for sexual parts lead to many false positives. (The word string used in his study to find references to sexual intercourse can be found in the Appendix A.) When the various tenses of ‘‘making love” and ‘‘having sex” are searched for in the same dream reports that Hall and Van de Castle used to create their normative findings, the results show an even lower frequency of references to sexual intercourse than that found with the Hall and Van de Castle’s coding categories: 2.0% for men (vs. 3.4% in the Hall and Van de Castle normative sample) and 0.4% for women (vs. 1.0% in the Hall and Van de Castle normative sample). However, this result does provide a cross-validation in that the frequency of sexual intercourse is very low and men have more mentions of sexual intercourse than women according to both methods.

As was the case with religious and spiritual elements, the search for sexual elements provides a sample of dreams that can be studied for themes or patterns in sex dreams, from which we learn that sometimes the sexual activity is interrupted by others or is rendered problematic in the dreamer’s mind because the partner is an unexpected one. The findings from this search also raise the same general question raised by the findings on religious elements. Why is thinking about sexuality more pervasive in waking thought than it appears to be in dreaming?

Pathological personality traits and immoral tendencies

Pathological personality traits and immoral tendencies. Jennifer K. Vrabela et al. Personality and Individual Differences, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.02.043

Highlights
•    Antagonism and disinhibition were associated with most of the immoral tendencies.
•    Negative affectivity had positive associations with greed and anger.
•    Negative affectivity had positive associations with benign and malicious envy.
•    Detachment was associated with malicious envy.
•    Psychoticism was not associated with any of the immoral tendencies.

Abstract: The overarching goal of the present studies was to explore the connections between pathological personality traits and an array of immoral tendencies. Across three studies, we predicted that individuals with certain pathological personality traits (e.g., antagonism) would be more likely to exhibit immoral tendencies (e.g., greed, envy). The results of Study 1 (N = 714) revealed that antagonism, disinhibition, and negative affectivity had unique positive associations with greed. The results of Study 2 (N = 1134) showed that antagonism and negative affectivity had unique positive associations with benign and malicious envy, whereas detachment had a positive association with malicious envy. The results of Study 3 (N = 476) showed that antagonism and disinhibition had unique positive associations with most of the “seven deadly sins” (e.g., anger, lust, pride), whereas negative affectivity had less consistent associations with the seven deadly sins. Discussion focuses on the implications of these results for understanding the links between pathological personality traits and immoral tendencies.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Approximately 95% of the potential predictive accuracy attainable for an individual is available within the social ties of that individual only, without requiring the individual's data

Information flow reveals prediction limits in online social activity. James P. Bagrow, Xipei Liu, Lewis Mitchell. arXiv, https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.04575

Abstract: Modern society depends on the flow of information over online social networks, and popular social platforms now generate significant behavioral data. Yet it remains unclear what fundamental limits may exist when using these data to predict the activities and interests of individuals. Here we apply tools from information theory to estimate the predictive information content of the writings of Twitter users and to what extent that information flows between users. Distinct temporal and social effects are visible in the information flow, and these estimates provide a fundamental bound on the predictive accuracy achievable with these data. Due to the social flow of information, we estimate that approximately 95% of the potential predictive accuracy attainable for an individual is available within the social ties of that individual only, without requiring the individual's data.

Chimpanzee and gorilla humor: progressive emergence from origins in the wild to captivity to sign language learning

Chimpanzee and gorilla humor: progressive emergence from origins in the wild to captivity to sign language learning. Paul McGhee. International Journal of Humor Research, https://doi.org/10.1515/humor-2018-0017

Abstract: This article examines available (mainly anecdotal) evidence related to the experience of humor among chimpanzees and gorillas in the wild, in captivity and following systematic sign language training. Humor is defined as one form of symbolic play. Positive evidence of object permanence, cross-modal perception, deferred imitation and deception among chimpanzees and gorillas is used to document their cognitive capacity for humor. Playful teasing is proposed as the primordial form of humor among apes in the wild. This same form of humor is commonly found among signing apes, both in overt behavior and in signed communications. A second form of humor emerges in the context of captivity, consisting of throwing feces at human onlookers—who often respond to this with laughter. This early form of humor shows up in signing apes in the form of calling others “dirty,” a sign associated with feces. The diversity of forms of signing humor shown by apes is linked to McGhee, Paul E. Humor: Its origin and development. San Francisco, CA: W. H. Freeman & Co, McGhee, Paul E. Understanding and promoting the development of children’s humor. Dubuque, IA: Kendall/Hunt. model of humor development.

Keywords: Chimpanzee; coping; gorilla; humor; mischief; play; pretend; scatological; sign language; slapstick; teasing
Caruana, Fausto. "Laughter as a Neurochemical Mechanism Aimed at Reinforcing Social Bonds: Integrating Evidence from Opioidergic Activity and Brain Stimulation." Journal of Neuroscience 37, no. 36 (September 6, 2017): 8581-8582. DOI: 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.1589-17.2017

Manninen, Sandra, Lauri Tuominen, Robin Dunbar, Tomi Karjalainen, Jussi Hirvonen, Eveliina Arponen, Riitta Hari, Iiro P. Jääskeläinen, Mikko Sams, and Lauri Nummenmaa. "Social Laughter Triggers Endogenous Opioid Release in Humans." Journal of Neuroscience (May 23, 2017): 0688-16. DOI: 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0688-16.2017

O’Nions, Elizabeth, César F. Lima, Sophie K. Scott, Ruth Roberts, Eamon J. McCrory, Essi Viding. "Reduced Laughter Contagion in Boys at Risk for Psychopathy." Current Biology (Published online September 28, 2017) DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2017.08.062

Davila-Ross, M., Allcock, B., Thomas, C., & Bard, K. A. (2011). Aping expressions? Chimpanzees produce distinct laugh types when responding to laughter of others. Emotion, 11(5), 1013-1020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0022594

Brian Knutson et al., “Anticipation of play elicits high-frequency ultrasonic vocalizations in young rats”, Journal of Comparative Psychology, 1998

Uwe Jürgens, “Neural pathways underlying vocal control”, Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, March 2002

Matthew Gervais and David Sloan Wilson, “The evolution and functions of laughter and humor: A synthetic approach”, The Quarterly Review of Biology, December 2005

Carolyn McGettigan et al., “Individual differences in laughter perception reveal roles for mentalizing and sensorimotor systems in the evaluation of emotional authenticity”, Cerebral Cortex, 2013

Uta Frith and Christopher D. Frith, “Development and neurophysiology of mentalizing”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, March 2003

Joyce W. Yuan et al., “Physiological down-regulation and positive emotion in marital interaction”, Emotion, August 2010

Sophie Scott et al., “The social life of laughter”, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, December 2014

Julia Vettin and Dietmar Todt, “Laughter in conversation: Features of occurrence and acoustic structure”, Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, June 2004

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Zoon Politikon: The Evolutionary Origins of Human Socio-political Systems

Zoon Politikon: The Evolutionary Origins of Human Socio-political Systems. Herbert Gintis, Carel van Schaik, Christopher Boehm. Behavioural Processes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.beproc.2018.01.007

Highlights

•    Strong social interdependence plus availability of lethal weapons in early hominin society undermined the standard social dominance hierarchy.
•    The successful political structure that replaced the ancestral social dominance hierarchy was an egalitarian political system in which the group controlled its leaders.
•    The heightened social value of non-authoritarian leadership entailed enhanced biological fitness for such traits as linguistic facility, political ability, and human hypercognition.
•    This equalitarian political system persisted until cultural changes in the Holocene fostered accumulation of material wealth, when a social hierarchy with authoritarian leaders could again be sustained.

Abstract: We deploy the most up-to-date evidence available in various behavioral fields in support of the following hypothesis: The emergence of bipedalism and cooperative breeding in the hominin line, together with environmental developments that made a diet of meat from large animals adaptive, as well as cultural innovations in the form of fire, cooking, and lethal weapons, created a niche for hominins in which there was a significant advantage to individuals with the ability to communicate and persuade in a moral context. These forces added a unique political dimension to human social life which, through gene-culture coevolution, became Homo ludens—Man, the game player—with the power to conserve and transform the social order. Homo sapiens became, in the words of Aristotle’s Nicomachean Ethics, a zoon politikon.

Climate change believers were most likely to endorse federal climate policies; skeptics were most likely to report pro-environmental behavior

Believing in climate change, but not behaving sustainably: Evidence from a one-year longitudinal study. Michael P. Hall, Neil A. Lewis Jr, Phoebe C. Ellsworth. Journal of Environmental Psychology, Volume 56, April 2018, Pages 55–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2018.03.001

Highlights
•    We conducted a one-year longitudinal study of 600 Americans' climate beliefs.
•    Cluster analyses found three distinct groups based on climate belief trajectories.
•    Climate change believers were most likely to endorse federal climate policies.
•    Climate change skeptics were most likely to report pro-environmental behavior.

Abstract: We conducted a one-year longitudinal study in which 600 American adults regularly reported their climate change beliefs, pro-environmental behavior, and other climate-change related measures. Using latent class analyses, we uncovered three clusters of Americans with distinct climate belief trajectories: (1) the “Skeptical,” who believed least in climate change; (2) the “Cautiously Worried,” who had moderate beliefs in climate change; and (3) the “Highly Concerned,” who had the strongest beliefs and concern about climate change. Cluster membership predicted different outcomes: the “Highly Concerned” were most supportive of government climate policies, but least likely to report individual-level actions, whereas the “Skeptical” opposed policy solutions but were most likely to report engaging in individual-level pro-environmental behaviors. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Keywords: Climate change; Cluster analysis; Attitudes; Beliefs; Behavior

Schadenfreude towards initially successful persons was intensified when they displayed dominance (i.e., hubristic pride or general dominance) instead of prestige (i.e., authentic pride or general prestige) or other displays (i.e., embarrassment) following their achievement. This effect was mediated via inferiors’ malicious envy.

Lange, Jens,and Lea Boecker 2018. “Preprint - Schadenfreude as Social-functional Dominance Regulator”. Open Science Framework. March 22. osf.io/x72sk

Abstract: Schadenfreude follows from misfortunes happening to other individuals. It is therefore an essentially social emotion. However, previous research has mainly explored its intrapersonal functions. Complementing these findings, we propose a social-functional approach to schadenfreude. Seven studies (total N = 2,362) support that (a) schadenfreude is a reaction to a misfortune befalling an initially dominance-displaying individual and (b) the public expression of schadenfreude downregulates the dominance of the other person. Specifically, schadenfreude towards initially successful persons was intensified when they displayed dominance (i.e., hubristic pride or general dominance) instead of prestige (i.e., authentic pride or general prestige) or other displays (i.e., embarrassment) following their achievement (Studies 1 to 3). This effect was mediated via inferiors’ malicious envy (Study 4). The public expression of schadenfreude then reduced the perceived dominance of the initially successful person compared to private expressions of schadenfreude and awkward silence (Studies 5 and 6). This dominance reduction further had downstream consequences for the superior person (Study 7). The findings underline the social functioning of schadenfreude and provide avenues for research on schadenfreude at the intrapersonal, interpersonal, and intergroup level.

Dogs (Canis familiaris) stick to what they have learned rather than conform to their conspecifics’ behavior

Dogs (Canis familiaris) stick to what they have learned rather than conform to their conspecifics’ behavior. Markus Germar et al. PLoS, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194808

Abstract: In recent years, an increasing number of studies has investigated majority influence in nonhuman animals. However, due to both terminological and methodological issues, evidence for conformity in nonhuman animals is scarce and controversial. Preliminary evidence suggests that wild birds, wild monkeys, and fish show conformity, that is, forgoing personal information in order to copy the majority. By contrast, chimpanzees seem to lack this tendency. The present study is the first to examine whether dogs (Canis familiaris) show conformity. Specifically, we tested whether dogs conform to a majority of conspecifics rather than stick to what they have previously learned. After dogs had acquired a behavioral preference via training (i.e., shaping), they were confronted with counter-preferential behavior of either no, one or three conspecifics. Traditional frequentist analyses show that the dogs’ behavior did not differ significantly between the three conditions. Complementary Bayesian analyses suggest that our data provide moderate evidence for the null hypothesis. In conclusion, our results suggest that dogs stick to what they have learned rather than conform to the counter-preferential behavior of others. We discuss the possible statistical and methodological limitations of this finding. Furthermore, we take a functional perspective on conformity and discuss under which circumstances dogs might show conformity after all.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Independent Fiscal Councils: Tentatively associated with more accurate and less optimistic fiscal forecasts, as well as greater compliance with fiscal rules

Independent Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma; Xavier Debrun; Xiangming Fang; Young Kim; Victor Duarte Lledo; Samba Mbaye ; Xiaoxiao Zhang. IMF Working Paper No. 18/68, www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/03/23/Independent-Fiscal-Councils-Recent-Trends-and-Performance-45726

Abstract: Countries increasingly rely on independent fiscal councils to constrain policymakers’ discretion and curb the bias towards excessive deficits and pro-cyclical policies. Since fiscal councils are often recent and heterogeneous across countries, assessing their impact is challenging. Using the latest (2016) vintage of the IMF Fiscal Council Dataset, we focus on two tasks expected to strengthen fiscal performance: the preparation or assessment of forecasts, and the monitoring of compliance with fiscal rules. Tentative econometric evidence suggests that the presence of a fiscal council is associated with more accurate and less optimistic fiscal forecasts, as well as greater compliance with fiscal rules.

Personal Pornography Viewing and Sexual Satisfaction: Reductions in satisfaction tend to initiate once viewing reaches once a month, and that additional increases in the frequency of viewing lead to disproportionately larger decrements in satisfaction

Personal Pornography Viewing and Sexual Satisfaction: A Quadratic Analysis. Paul J. Wright, Ana J. Bridges, Chyng Sun, Matthew B. Ezzell & Jennifer A. Johnson. Journal of Sex & Marital Therapy, Volume 44, 2018 - Issue 3, Pages 308-315. https://doi.org/10.1080/0092623X.2017.1377131

ABSTRACT: Personal pornography viewing has been associated with lower sexual satisfaction in both experimental and observational research. The language used to hypothesize this relationship typically suggests that it is frequent viewing, rather than infrequent or only occasional viewing, that is responsible for any adverse effects. When the nature of the relationship between a predictor and a criterion depends on the levels of the predictor, a curvilinear relationship is indicated. Nevertheless, studies have assumed linearity in their analytical approach. Curvilinear relationships will go undetected unless they are specifically tested. This article presents results from a survey of approximately 1,500 U.S. adults. Quadratic analyses indicated a curvilinear relationship between personal pornography viewing and sexual satisfaction in the form of a predominately negative, concave downward curve. The nature of the curvilinearity did not differ as a function of participants' gender, relationship status, or religiosity. But the negative acceleration was slightly more pronounced for men than for women, for people not in a relationship than for people in a relationship, and for religious people than for nonreligious people. For all groups, negative simple slopes were present when viewing reached once a month or more. These results are correlational only. However, if an effects perspective were adopted, it would suggest that consuming pornography less than once a month has little or no impact on satisfaction, that reductions in satisfaction tend to initiate once viewing reaches once a month, and that additional increases in the frequency of viewing lead to disproportionately larger decrements in satisfaction.

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My comments: I disagree with these conclusions. And the guys I know that are avid porn consumers, all of them bisexual or gay, do not experience those effects.

Sex differences in facial emotion perception ability across the lifespan: emotion perception abilities peak between the ages of 15 and 30, with poorer performance by younger adults and declining performance after that

Sex differences in facial emotion perception ability across the lifespan. Sally Olderbak, Oliver Wilhelm, Andrea Hildebrandt & Jordi Quoidbach. Cognition and Emotion,  https://doi.org/10.1080/02699931.2018.1454403

ABSTRACT: Perception of emotion in the face is a key component of human social cognition and is considered vital for many domains of life; however, little is known about how this ability differs across the lifespan for men and women. We addressed this question with a large community sample (N = 100,257) of persons ranging from younger than 15 to older than 60 years of age. Participants were viewers of the television show “Tout le Monde Joue”, and the task was presented on television, with participants responding via their mobile devices. Applying latent variable modeling, and establishing measurement invariance between males and females and across age, we found that, for both males and females, emotion perception abilities peak between the ages of 15 and 30, with poorer performance by younger adults and declining performance after the age of 30. In addition, we show a consistent advantage by females across the lifespan, which decreases in magnitude with increasing age. This large scale study with a wide range of people and testing environments suggests these effects are largely robust. Implications are discussed.

KEYWORDS: Emotion perception, emotion recognition, sex differences, aging, latent variable modeling

Chimpanzees primarily eat plant source foods, but like vertebrate prey due to high fat content; 91pct of observed consumption of sub-adult prey was head-first due to soft skull. With adults, with robust skulls, chimps wanted viscera first, probably to harvest the liver.

Meat Eating by Wild Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii): Effects of Prey Age on Carcass Consumption Sequence. Ian C. Gilby, Daniel Wawrzyniak. International Journal of Primatology, February 2018, Volume 39, Issue 1, pp 127–140. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10764-018-0019-9

Abstract: Despite the fact that many primates consume vertebrate prey, surprisingly little is known about the nutritional benefits of eating meat for members of this diverse order. Although chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) primarily eat plant source foods, especially fruit, they consume vertebrate prey with excitement, attesting to its nutritional value. Meat is a concentrated source of macro- and micronutrients; however, a carcass is not a uniform package. For example, the mammalian brain has considerably higher fat content than lean muscle tissue. The brain both has great caloric value and contains high concentrations of long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, which are critical for normal brain function. It thus represents a large, nutrient-dense source of energy and essential nutrients that should be highly valued. We filmed consumption of 29 arboreal monkeys by chimpanzees at Gombe National Park, Tanzania, and recorded the order in which general regions of the body were consumed. Overall, the head was significantly more likely to be targeted first than either the torso (including viscera) or appendages. This result was driven by subadult prey, 91% of which were eaten head-first, probably because their skulls were relatively easy for chimpanzees to break with a single bite. Possessors of adult prey (with robust skulls) often first selected the viscera, probably to harvest the fat-rich liver, thus maximizing immediate return in the face of the threat of harassment or theft. This has important implications for our understanding of the nutritional benefits of meat eating among primates, and highlights the need for future studies that measure the nutritional content of specific tissues and examine which are preferentially consumed or shared.

Sex Differences on Big Five Traits: Phenotypic differences (women higher in neuroticism, agreeableness, conscientiousness), but no genetic or environmental sex differences in any trait

Sex Differences in the Big Five Model Personality Traits: A Behavior Genetics Exploration. Susan C. South, 1, , Amber M. Jarnecke1, Colin E. Vize. Journal of Research in Personality, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2018.03.002

Highlights
•    Mean level sex differences were found for Neuroticism, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness (women higher on all)
•    No evidence of qualitative genetic differences between men and women on any of the Big Five traits.
•    No evidence of quantitative genetic or environmental differences between men and women on any of the Big Five traits.

Abstract: The importance of genetic influences for the Five Factor/Big Five Model (BFM) traits is well established. Relatively understudied, however, are the presence and magnitude of sex differences in genetic and environmental variance of these traits. The current study tested if men and women differ 1) qualitatively in the genetic mechanisms, or 2) quantitatively, on the genetic and environmental variance, contributing to BFM personality domains. Results from a nationally representative U.S. adult twin sample (N=973 pairs) supported phenotypic (i.e., mean level) sex differences in three of five personality traits (i.e., Neuroticism, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness) but did not support genetic or environmental sex differences in any trait.

Keywords: Personality; Sex differences; Behavior genetics; Twin

Why Do Very Unattractive Workers Earn So Much?

Why Do Very Unattractive Workers Earn So Much? Satoshi Kanazawa, Shihao Hu, Adrien Larere. Economics & Human Biology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2018.03.003

Highlights
•    Very unattractive women (not men) are more likely to be married than others.
•    Spouses of very attractive women (not men) earn more than those of others.
•    Our findings can explain why very unattractive workers earn more.

Abstract: Kanazawa and Still (2018) showed that very unattractive workers earned more than unattractive workers, sometimes more than average-looking or attractive workers, because they had higher levels of intelligence and education, but they did not explain why very unattractive workers had higher intelligence and education. There are both theoretical and empirical reasons to expect that some intelligent men may prefer to marry very unattractive women. The analysis of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) shows that very unattractive women were significantly more likely to be married at Age 29 than unattractive or average-looking women, and their spouses or partners earned significantly more than those of unattractive or average-looking women. If intelligent men have historically preferred to marry very unattractive women generation after generation, then, because both general intelligence and physical attractiveness are highly heritable, this can explain why very unattractive workers are more intelligent and achieve higher education, thereby earning more. It can also explain why the positive correlation between intelligence and physical attractiveness is not larger despite assortative mating of intelligent men of higher status and physically attractive women over many generations.

Keywords: the Savanna-IQ Interaction Hypothesis; the intelligence paradox; mate preferences; evolutionary psychology


Thursday, March 22, 2018

Migrant children and adolescents of lower social status rapidly adjust in height towards average height of their hosts, but tend to mature earlier, and are prone to overweight. The mean height of colonial/military migrants does surpass that of the conquered and origin population

As tall as my peers – similarity in body height between migrants and hosts. Barry Bogin, Michael Hermanussen and Christiane Scheffler. Anthropol. Anz. 74/5 Supplement (2018), 365–376, J. Biol. Clin. Anthropol.

Abstract: Background: We define migrants as people who move from their place of birth to a new place of residence.

Migration usually is directed by "Push-Pull" factors, for example to escape from poor living conditions or to find more prosperous socio-economic conditions. Migrant children tend to assimilate quickly, and soon perceive themselves as peers within their new social networks. Differences exist between growth of first generation and second generation migrants.

Methods: We review body heights and height distributions of historic and modern migrant populations to test two hypotheses: 1) that migrant and adopted children coming from lower social status localities to higher status localities adjust their height growth toward the mean of the dominant recipient social network, and 2) social dominant colonial and military migrants display growth that significantly surpasses the median height of both the conquered population and the population of origin. Our analytical framework also considered social networks. Recent publications indicate that spatial connectedness (community effects) and social competitiveness can affect human growth.

Results: Migrant children and adolescents of lower social status rapidly adjust in height towards average height of their hosts, but tend to mature earlier, and are prone to overweight. The mean height of colonial/military migrants does surpass that of the conquered and origin population.

Conclusion: Observations on human social networks, non-human animal strategic growth adjustment, and competitive growth processes strengthen the concept of social connectedness being involved in the regulation of human migrant growth.

Keywords: growth of migrants, community effect on height, dominance, strategic growth adjustments, competitive growth

Effectiveness of Vehicle Safety Inspections: Ending these requirements did not result in a significant increase in the frequency or intensity of accidents due to car failur

It's No Accident: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Vehicle Safety Inspections. Alex Hoagland, Trevor Woolley. Contermporary Economic Policy, https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12284

Abstract: An increase in technology means that vehicles are more reliable than in the past. Accordingly, states have begun to discontinue their requirements for vehicle safety inspections. To gauge the effect of such changes, we examine traffic fatality data from 2000 to 2015, with emphasis on New Jersey, which ended safety inspection requirements in 2010. Utilizing a synthetic controls approach, we conclude that ending these requirements did not result in a significant increase in the frequency or intensity of accidents due to car failure, implying that the consumer and government expenditures used for inspections could be reallocated to other areas of travel safety.

JEL codes: R41, Z18, C23

Meta-analysis of effects of helping on the happiness of the helper: The overall effect of kindness on well-being is small-to-medium

Happy to help? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of performing acts of kindness on the well-being of the actor. Oliver Scott Curry et al. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2018.02.014

Highlights
•    Meta-analysis of effects of helping on the happiness of the helper
•    27 experimental studies included in review (total N = 4045)
•    The overall effect of kindness on well-being is small-to-medium (δ = 0.28).
•    No evidence of publication bias
•    Future research should test more specific theories of kindness.

Abstract: Do acts of kindness improve the well-being of the actor? Recent advances in the behavioural sciences have provided a number of explanations of human social, cooperative and altruistic behaviour. These theories predict that people will be ‘happy to help’ family, friends, community members, spouses, and even strangers under some conditions. Here we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the experimental evidence that kindness interventions (for example, performing ‘random acts of kindness’) boost subjective well-being. Our initial search of the literature identified 489 articles; of which 24 (27 studies) met the inclusion criteria (total N = 4045). These 27 studies, some of which included multiple control conditions and dependent measures, yielded 52 effect sizes. Multi-level modeling revealed that the overall effect of kindness on the well-being of the actor is small-to-medium (δ = 0.28). The effect was not moderated by sex, age, type of participant, intervention, control condition or outcome measure. There was no indication of publication bias. We discuss the limitations of the current literature, and recommend that future research test more specific theories of kindness: taking kindness-specific individual differences into account; distinguishing between the effects of kindness to specific categories of people; and considering a wider range of proximal and distal outcomes. Such research will advance our understanding of the causes and consequences of kindness, and help practitioners to maximise the effectiveness of kindness interventions to improve well-being.

A Reanalysis of Cohn Et Al. 2014, Nature, ‘‘Business Culture and Dishonesty in the Banking Industry’’: The use of flawed statistics methods, used routinely in so-called “evidence-based” science, led the authors to distort the “evidence”

Hupé, Jean-Michel, 2018. “Shortcomings of Experimental Economics to Study Human Behavior: A Reanalysis of Cohn Et Al. 2014, Nature 516, 86–89, ‘‘business Culture and Dishonesty in the Banking Industry’’”. SocArXiv. March 20. osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/nt6xk

Abstract: In the wake of financial scandals, Cohn and collaborators published a headline-grabber study in the field of behavioral economics. M.C. Villeval (2014), in the News and Views of the Nature issue where this papers was published, summarized the main message: the “experiment shows that although bank employees behave honestly on average, their dishonesty increases when they make decisions after having been primed to think about their professional identity.” Cohn et al. thus provide evidence that “the incentives and the business culture developed in the financial sector may undermine the honesty norms of ordinary employees.” This study may have important consequences for policy, since, Villeval continues, “it is crucial to ensure a business culture of honesty in this industry to restore trust in it.” Villeval also argues that “from a scientific perspective, this study […] supports the economic theory of social identity […], links this theory with the economic analysis of lying behavior [… and] shows how behavioural economists can contribute to a broader reflection in science about how people manage their 'multiple selves' ”. Here I show that the use of flawed statistics methods, yet used routinely in so-called “evidence-based” science, led the authors to distort the “evidence”. Should we therefore question the contribution of behavioral economics to the understanding of human behavior? I am also using this data-set as an interesting example to explore how we can use modeling and simulations to provide a fair account of the information and uncertainty conveyed by the data, based on Confidence Intervals. I provide the R-code. I conclude with considerations on honesty and science.


Wednesday, March 21, 2018

A Compensatory Effect on Mate Selection? Importance of Auditory, Olfactory, and Tactile Cues in Partner Choice among Blind and Sighted Individuals

A Compensatory Effect on Mate Selection? Importance of Auditory, Olfactory, and Tactile Cues in Partner Choice among Blind and Sighted Individuals. Agnieszka Sorokowska, Anna Oleszkiewicz, Piotr Sorokowski. Archives of Sexual Behavior, April 2018, Volume 47, Issue 3, pp 597–603. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-018-1156-0

Abstract: Human attractiveness is a potent social variable, and people assess their potential partners based on input from a range of sensory modalities. Among all sensory cues, visual signals are typically considered to be the most important and most salient source of information. However, it remains unclear how people without sight assess others. In the current study, we explored the relative importance of sensory modalities other than vision (smell, touch, and audition) in the assessment of same- and opposite-sex strangers. We specifically focused on possible sensory compensation in mate selection, defined as enhanced importance of modalities other than vision among blind individuals in their choice of potential partners. Data were obtained from a total of 119 participants, of whom 78 were blind people aged between 16 and 65 years (M = 42.4, SD = 12.6; 38 females) and a control sample of 41 sighted people aged between 20 and 64. As hypothesized, we observed a compensatory effect of blindness on auditory perception. Our data indicate that visual impairment increases the importance of audition in different types of social assessments for both sexes and in mate choice for blind men.

Punishing injustices is more pleasureable (reward system of the brain) than compensating the victims

Neurobiological Mechanisms of Responding to Injustice. Mirre Stallen, Filippo Rossi, Amber Heijne, Ale Smidts, Carsten K.W. De Dreu and Alan G. Sanfey. Journal of Neuroscience, March 21 2018, 38 (12) 2944-2954; https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.1242-17.2018

Abstract: People are particularly sensitive to injustice. Accordingly, deeper knowledge regarding the processes that underlie the perception of injustice, and the subsequent decisions to either punish transgressors or compensate victims, is of important social value. By combining a novel decision-making paradigm with functional neuroimaging, we identified specific brain networks that are involved with both the perception of, and response to, social injustice, with reward-related regions preferentially involved in punishment compared with compensation. Developing a computational model of punishment allowed for disentangling the neural mechanisms and psychological motives underlying decisions of whether to punish and, subsequently, of how severely to punish. Results show that the neural mechanisms underlying punishment differ depending on whether one is directly affected by the injustice, or whether one is a third-party observer of a violation occurring to another. Specifically, the anterior insula was involved in decisions to punish following harm, whereas, in third-party scenarios, we found amygdala activity associated with punishment severity. Additionally, we used a pharmacological intervention using oxytocin, and found that oxytocin influenced participants' fairness expectations, and in particular enhanced the frequency of low punishments. Together, these results not only provide more insight into the fundamental brain mechanisms underlying punishment and compensation, but also illustrate the importance of taking an explorative, multimethod approach when unraveling the complex components of everyday decision-making.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The perception of injustice is a fundamental precursor to many disagreements, from small struggles at the dinner table to wasteful conflict between cultures and countries. Despite its clear importance, relatively little is known about how the brain processes these violations. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, we combine methods from neuroscience, psychology, and economics to explore the neurobiological mechanisms involved in both the perception of injustice as well as the punishment and compensation decisions that follow. Using a novel behavioral paradigm, we identified specific brain networks, developed a computational model of punishment, and found that administrating the neuropeptide oxytocin increases the administration of low punishments of norm violations in particular. Results provide valuable insights into the fundamental neurobiological mechanisms underlying social injustice.

Check also: Preschool children and chimpanzees incur costs to watch punishment of antisocial others. Natacha Mendes, Nikolaus Steinbeis, Nereida Bueno-Guerra, Josep Call & Tania Singer. Nature Human Behaviour (2017). http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/12/preschool-children-and-chimpanzees.html

How many hours does it take to make a friend?

How many hours does it take to make a friend? Jeffrey A. Hall. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407518761225

Abstract: The question of this investigation is, how many hours does it take to make a new friend? Drawing from Dunbar’s social brain hypothesis and Communicate Bond Belong theory, friendship status was examined as a function of hours together, shared activities, and everyday talk. In Study 1, MTurk participants (N = 355) who had recently relocated estimated time spent with a new acquaintance. Hours together was associated with closer friendships. Time spent engaging in leisure activities also predicted closeness. In Study 2, first-year students (N = 112) reported the number of hours spent with two new acquaintances three times over 9 weeks. Hours together was associated changes in closeness between waves. Two types of everyday talk predicted changes in closeness.

Although we find that Democrats/liberals are somewhat more analytic than Republicans/conservatives overall, political moderates and non-voters are the least analytic whereas Libertarians are the most analytic

Cognitive Reflection and the 2016 US Presidential Election. Gordon Pennycook, David G Rand. February 2018, DOI 10.13140/RG.2.2.21167.64162

Description: It has often been claimed that conservatives tend to rely more on their intuitions and gut feelings than liberals. However, support for this claim is often indirect and inconsistent. Moreover, it is unclear how analytic thinking and political ideology interact to influence political behavior. Here we investigate the relationship between individual differences in analytic thinking (using the Cognitive Reflection Test) and political affiliation, ideology, and voting in the 2016 Presidential Election using a large online sample (N = 15,001). We find that individuals who voted for Donald Trump are less analytic than those who voted for Hillary Clinton or a 3rd party candidate. However, this difference was driven most by Democrats who chose Trump over Hillary Clinton (and, to a lesser degree, Independents). Among Republicans, in contrast, Clinton and Trump voters were similarly analytic, whereas those who voted for a third-party candidate showed more analytic thinking. Furthermore, although we find that Democrats/liberals are somewhat more analytic than Republicans/conservatives overall, political moderates and non-voters are the least analytic whereas Libertarians are the most analytic. Our results suggest that, in addition to the previously theorized positive relationship between analytic thinking and liberalism, there are three additional ways in which intuitive versus analytic thinking is relevant for political cognition: 1) Facilitating political apathy versus engagement, 2) Supporting the adoption of orthodox versus heterodox political positions and behavior, and 3) Drawing individuals toward political candidates who share an intuitive versus analytic cognitive style, and towards policy proposals which are intuitively versus analytically compelling.



Downward comparison (comparing to worse‐off others) and upward comparison (comparing to better‐off others) constitute two types of social comparisons that produce different neuropsychological consequences - Functional brain imaging studies on the downward and upward comparisons

Social comparison in the brain: A coordinate‐based meta‐analysis of functional brain imaging studies on the downward and upward comparisons. Yi Luo et al. Hum Brain Mapp 39:440–458, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/hbm.23854

Abstract: Social comparison is ubiquitous across human societies with dramatic influence on people's well‐being and decision making. Downward comparison (comparing to worse‐off others) and upward comparison (comparing to better‐off others) constitute two types of social comparisons that produce different neuropsychological consequences. Based on studies exploring neural signatures associated with downward and upward comparisons, the current study utilized a coordinate‐based meta‐analysis to provide a refinement of understanding about the underlying neural architecture of social comparison. We identified consistent involvement of the ventral striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex in downward comparison and consistent involvement of the anterior insula and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex in upward comparison. These findings fit well with the “common‐currency” hypothesis that neural representations of social gain or loss resemble those for non‐social reward or loss processing. Accordingly, we discussed our findings in the framework of general reinforcement learning (RL) hypothesis, arguing how social gain/loss induced by social comparisons could be encoded by the brain as a domain‐general signal (i.e., prediction errors) serving to adjust people's decisions in social settings. Although the RL account may serve as a heuristic framework for the future research, other plausible accounts on the neuropsychological mechanism of social comparison were also acknowledged.

Asleep at the automated wheel—Sleepiness and fatigue during highly automated driving

Asleep at the automated wheel—Sleepiness and fatigue during highly automated driving. Tobias Vogelpohl et al. Accident Analysis & Prevention, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.03.013

Abstract

Due to the lack of active involvement in the driving situation and due to monotonous driving environments drivers with automation may be prone to become fatigued faster than manual drivers (e.g. Schömig et al., 2015). However, little is known about the progression of fatigue during automated driving and its effects on the ability to take back manual control after a take-over request. In this driving simulator study with Nö=ö60 drivers we used a three factorial 2ö×ö2ö×ö12 mixed design to analyze the progression (12ö×ö5ömin; within subjects) of driver fatigue in drivers with automation compared to manual drivers (between subjects). Driver fatigue was induced as either mainly sleep related or mainly task related fatigue (between subjects). Additionally, we investigated the drivers’ reactions to a take-over request in a critical driving scenario to gain insights into the ability of fatigued drivers to regain manual control and situation awareness after automated driving.

Drivers in the automated driving condition exhibited facial indicators of fatigue after 15 to 35ömin of driving. Manual drivers only showed similar indicators of fatigue if they suffered from a lack of sleep and then only after a longer period of driving (approx. 40ömin). Several drivers in the automated condition closed their eyes for extended periods of time. In the driving with automation condition mean automation deactivation times after a take-over request were slower for a certain percentage (about 30%) of the drivers with a lack of sleep (Mö=ö3.2; SDö=ö2.1ös) compared to the reaction times after a long drive (Mö=ö2.4; SDö=ö0.9ös). Drivers with automation also took longer than manual drivers to first glance at the speed display after a take-over request and were more likely to stay behind a braking lead vehicle instead of overtaking it.

Drivers are unable to stay alert during extended periods of automated driving without non-driving related tasks. Fatigued drivers could pose a serious hazard in complex take-over situations where situation awareness is required to prepare for threats. Driver fatigue monitoring or controllable distraction through non-driving tasks could be necessary to ensure alertness and availability during highly automated driving.

Keywords: Fatigue; Sleep; Automated driving; Transition to manual; Take-over request

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Children develop skills foundational for identifying and creating opportunities for cooperation with others early, generating and distributing benefits. Apes have capacities for generating them, not for distributing them

How Children Solve the Two Challenges of Cooperation.  Felix Warneken. Annual Review of Psychology, Vol. 69:205-229 (January 2018). https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-122216-011813

Abstract: In this review, I propose a new framework for the psychological origins of human cooperation that harnesses evolutionary theories about the two major problems posed by cooperation: generating and distributing benefits. Children develop skills foundational for identifying and creating opportunities for cooperation with others early: Infants and toddlers already possess basic skills to help others and share resources. Yet mechanisms that solve the free-rider problem—critical for sustaining cooperation as a viable strategy—emerge later in development and are more sensitive to the influence of social norms. I review empirical studies with children showing a dissociation in the origins of and developmental change seen in these two sets of processes. In addition, comparative studies of nonhuman apes also highlight important differences between these skills: The ability to generate benefits has evolutionary roots that are shared between humans and nonhuman apes, whereas there is little evidence that other apes exhibit comparable capacities for distributing benefits. I conclude by proposing ways in which this framework can motivate new developmental, comparative, and cross-cultural research about human cooperation.

By age five, children begin to understand the broad importance of reputation and to engage in surprisingly sophisticated impression management

Pint-Sized Public Relations: The Development of Reputation Management. Ike M. Silver, Alex Shaw. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 22, Issue 4, April 2018, Pages 277–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2018.01.006

Abstract: Until recently, many psychologists were skeptical that young children cared about reputation. New evidence suggests that by age five, children begin to understand the broad importance of reputation and to engage in surprisingly sophisticated impression management. These findings prompt exciting new questions about the development of a fundamental social competency.

Keywords: Reputation; signaling; impression management; self-presentation; social cognitive development; morality

Patients’ perspectives on political self‐disclosure, the therapeutic alliance, and the infiltration of politics into the therapy room

Patients’ perspectives on political self‐disclosure, the therapeutic alliance, and the infiltration of politics into the therapy room in the Trump era. Nili Solomonov, Jacques P. Barber. Journal of Clinical Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1002/jclp.22609

Abstract: The primary aim of this study was to investigate the effects of the 2016 United States presidential election and ensuing political climate on patients’ experiences in psychotherapy. A sample of 604 self‐described Democrat and Republican patients from 50 states participated in the study. Results showed that most therapists disclosed their political stance (explicitly or implicitly) and most patients discussed politics with their therapists. 64% of Clinton supporters and 38% of Trump supporters assumed political similarity with their therapist. Stronger patient‐reported alliance levels were found for patients who (a) perceived political similarity; (b) reported implicit therapist political disclosure; and (c) found in‐session political discussions helpful. Additionally, Clinton (but not Trump) supporters reported significant pre‐post‐election decreases in expression of positive emotions and increases in both expression of negative emotions and engagement in discussions about socio‐political topics. Our findings suggest that the current political climate infiltrates the therapeutic space and affects therapeutic process and content.

Predictions about facial expressions drive social perception, deeply influencing how others are evaluated: individuals are judged as more likable and trustworthy when their facial expressions are anticipated

Chanes, L., Wormwood, J. B., Betz, N., & Barrett, L. F. (2018). Facial expression predictions as drivers of social perception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 114(3), 380-396. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000108

Abstract: Emerging perspectives in neuroscience indicate that the brain functions predictively, constantly anticipating sensory input based on past experience. According to these perspectives, prediction signals impact perception, guiding and constraining experience. In a series of six behavioral experiments, we show that predictions about facial expressions drive social perception, deeply influencing how others are evaluated: individuals are judged as more likable and trustworthy when their facial expressions are anticipated, even in the absence of any conscious changes in felt affect. Moreover, the effect of predictions on social judgments extends to both real-world situations where such judgments have particularly high consequence (i.e., evaluating presidential candidates for an upcoming election), as well as to more basic perceptual processes that may underlie judgment (i.e., facilitated visual processing of expected expressions). The implications of these findings, including relevance for cross-cultural interactions, social stereotypes and mental illness, are discussed.

Why Only Humans Shed Emotional Tears: Evolutionary and Cultural Perspectives

Why Only Humans Shed Emotional Tears: Evolutionary and Cultural Perspectives. Asmir Gračanin, Lauren M. Bylsma, Ad J. J. M. Vingerhoets. Human Nature, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12110-018-9312-8

Abstract: Producing emotional tears is a universal and uniquely human behavior. Until recently, tears have received little serious attention from scientists. Here, we summarize recent theoretical developments and research findings. The evolutionary approach offers a solid ground for the analysis of the functions of tears. This is especially the case for infant crying, which we address in the first part of this contribution. We further elaborate on the antecedents and (intra- and interpersonal) functions of emotional tears in adults. The main hypothesis that emerges from this overview is that crying evolved as an emotional expression that signals distress and promotes prosocial behaviors in conspecifics. Further, shedding tears may influence the mood of the crier and his/her outlook on life primarily as a consequence of fulfillment of the proposed signaling function of tears. We also describe how cultural phenomena such as ritual weeping nicely fit within this framework, as they often aim to support a request for help to a powerful person or deity and promote social bonding.

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Although there seems to be a consensus among contemporary scientists that weeping is uniquely human, there have been ample anecdotal descriptions of weeping animals (cf. Masson and McCarthy 1995; Vingerhoets 2013). For example, Homer described how a horse expressed its loyalty to its master, Patroclus, by weeping over his death. Also, crocodiles reportedly shed tears, initially not the proverbial (and hypocritical) crocodile tears, but rather to express real suffering when being physically abused
(Vingerhoets 2013). Deer also were said to weep after having shed their horns (Treacher-Collins 1932). Even Darwin (1872) discussed some observations of weeping animals, including macaques and, in particular, elephants. According to Reynolds (1924), weeping is a typical reaction of certain animals (particularly wolves) that signals exhaustion, which results in the tearful animal being placed at the rear of the pack to allow it to rest and recover. Further, Fossey (2000) described how Coco, a gorilla, wept when he was ill. Finally, in the documentary film The Weeping Camel (Davaa and Falorni 2003), the camel mother starts to produce tears at the moment that she reconnects with her previously rejected offspring and allows it to nurse.

However, the only more systematic study on this topic, a survey among people who work with animals professionally, including veterinarians and zookeepers failed to yield even a single observation of a weeping animal (Frey 1985). Murube (2009a) also concludes that animals generally do not produce emotional tears, although he admitted that several anecdotal reports deserve serious attention by investigators. Consequently, we must conclude that we currently do not have sufficient evidence to document weeping in nonhuman animals. If it does occur, it is extremely exceptional. The apparent uniqueness of human weeping suggests that tears might represent a functional response to adaptive challenges specific to the hominid lineage, which is crucial for understanding both the evolved functions and the proximate mechanisms of this complex behavior.

Personality traits doubled the variance accounted for (4% to 9%) indicating that Open, more Agreeable people were more Left-Wing and Introverted, more Conscientious people more Right-Wing

Personality and political orientation. Adrian Furnham, Mark Fenton-O'Creevy. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 129, 15 July 2018, Pages 88–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.03.020

Highlights
•    Personality and demographic factors were correlated with Left-Right political orientation (PO).
•    Better educated, less religious, females of higher social class were more Left-Wing.
•    Personality traits doubled the variance account for (4% to 9%).
•    Open, Agreeable people were Left-Wing and Introverted, Conscientious people Right-Wing.

Abstract: This study examined the incremental validity of the Big-Five personality traits over primarily demographic factors in predicting Left-Right political orientation (PO) in a large British adult sample. Gender and trait Openness was most strongly correlated with PO. The regression indicated that females who were better educated, less religious and of higher social class were more Left-Wing. Personality traits doubled the variance accounted for (4% to 9%) indicating that Open, more Agreeable people were more Left-Wing and Introverted, more Conscientious people more Right-Wing. Agreeableness and Neuroticism showed an interaction with social class, such that for high social class, Left-Wing orientation increased with Agreeableness (but not for low social class); and for high social class, Left-Wing orientation increased with Neuroticism, whilst for low social class, Right-Wing orientation increased with Neuroticism.

Keywords: Political orientation; Personality traits; Demographic variables

Are survivalists malevolent? Survivalists are disagreeable, low in rationality, and high in psychopathy, Machiavellianism and narcissism. This suggests relatively high malevolence as well as high capacity for self-preservation. They are also fantasizers of sensation seeking, deep learners, and high in entrepreneurial intent.

Are survivalists malevolent? Chris J. Jackson. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 129, 15 July 2018, Pages 104–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.03.006

Abstract: Survivalist plan and prepare for a major disaster. This research describes construction of the 8-item Survivalist Behavior Questionnaire (SBQ) and its nomological network which highlights that survivalists are disagreeable, low in rationality, and high in psychopathy, Machiavellianism and narcissism. This suggests relatively high malevolence as well as high capacity for self-preservation. They are also fantasizers of sensation seeking, deep learners, and high in entrepreneurial intent which suggests ingenuity and ambition. They are also of lower general ability and lower rationality which suggests some limitations in the way they analyze information. Compared to the general population, survivalists are potentially dangerous in terms of personality (e.g., they are high scorers on the Dark Triad) and behavior (e.g., they may stockpile weapons) but also have strong preservation instincts that might be of benefit, at least to themselves, should disaster strike.

Keywords: Survivalists; Apocalypse; Dark triad; Maverick; Entrepreneurism; HMLP; Gun control

Precarious Sexuality: How Men and Women Are Differentially Categorized for Similar Sexual Behavior

Precarious Sexuality: How Men and Women Are Differentially Categorized for Similar Sexual Behavior. Trenton D. Mize, Bianca Manago. American Sociological Review,  https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122418759544

Abstract: Are men and women categorized differently for similar sexual behavior? Building on theories of gender, sexuality, and status, we introduce the concept of precarious sexuality to suggest that men’s—but not women’s—heterosexuality is an especially privileged identity that is easily lost. We test our hypotheses in a series of survey experiments describing a person who has a sexual experience conflicting with their sexual history. We find that a single same-sex sexual encounter leads an observer to question a heterosexual man’s sexual orientation to a greater extent than that of a heterosexual woman in a similar situation. We also find that a different-sex sexual encounter is more likely to change others’ perceptions of a lesbian woman’s sexual orientation—compared to perceptions of a gay man’s sexual orientation. In two conceptual replications, we vary the level of intimacy of the sexual encounter and find consistent evidence for our idea of precarious sexuality for heterosexual men. We close with a general discussion of how status beliefs influence categorization processes and with suggestions for extending our theoretical propositions to other categories beyond those of sexual orientation.

Keywords: gender, sexuality, social psychology, status, stigma

Monday, March 19, 2018

A longitudinal analysis of shooter games and their relationship with conduct disorder and cself-reported delinquency: The role of violent video games in the development of youth psychopathology or crime is very little if any

A longitudinal analysis of shooter games and their relationship with conduct disorder and self-reported delinquency. Sven Smith, Chris Ferguson, Kevin Beaver. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, Volume 58, May–June 2018, Pages 48–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijlp.2018.02.008

Abstract

Purpose: Despite several decades of research, little scholarly consensus has emerged regarding the role of violent video games in the development of youth psychopathology or crime.

Method: The current study employed the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children longitudinal dataset to examine the impact of the shooter game genre ownership in childhood on later adolescent conduct disorder and criminal behavior.

Analysis: Multivariate Poisson regressions with the robust estimator correlation matrix were performed comparing effects of independent and confounding variables.

Results: Results revealed that early childhood mental health symptoms at age seven related to ADHD, depression and early conduct disorder predicted criminal behavior at age fifteen. Male gender also predicted criminal behavior at age fifteen. However, exposure to shooter games did not predict adolescent conduct disorder or criminal behavior.

Conclusion: We have found support that suggests that the role of violent video games in the development of youth psychopathology or crime is very little if any. Lack of a relationship between exposure to shooter games and later conduct and criminal behavior problems may be understood within the context of the Catalyst Model.

Keywords: Video games; Violence; Aggression; Crime; Mental health; ALSPAC


Each one-standard-deviation improvement in attractiveness is associated with approximately 3.9% reduction in the probability of winning the Nobel Prize

Nobel Beauty. Jan Fidrmuc, Boontarika Paphawasit, Cigdem Borke Tunali. The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Oct 2017,  WP 17- 27. https://ideas.repec.org/p/rim/rimwps/17-27.html

Abstract: We consider the effect of physical attractiveness, assessed using publicly available pictures of top scientists, on their probability of winning the Nobel Prize. There is now an extensive body of literature that finds that physically attractive people receive non-negligible benefits in the labor market, marriage market and social life. In contrast, we find that attractiveness is negatively correlated with the probability of being awarded the Nobel, with the magnitude of this effect being non-negligible. We discuss the potential mechanisms that could explain this result.

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We consider the effect of physical attractiveness on the probability of receiving the Nobel Prize. The previous literature has found plentiful evidence that attractiveness brings about benefits in the labor market, personal life and marriage, and even research (at least in terms of quality of academic publications and number of citations). The literature is inconclusive, nevertheless, as to whether these gains are due to discrimination in favor of attractive people or whether physical beauty is a signal of better health, higher intelligence, or competence.

In our analysis, we collected pictures of 324 top scientists in physics, chemistry, medicine and economics: these researchers were either predicted to be awarded the Nobel Prize, or have actually received it. We had these pictures rated for their attractiveness by a broad sample of UK undergraduate students. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that being more attractive reduces the probability of receiving the Nobel Prize. When we allow for the relationship being non-linear, it appears hump-shaped, with average-looking scientist having the best odds of being awarded the Nobel. The magnitude of the effect is potentially large: assuming the relationship is linear, each one-standard-deviation improvement in attractiveness is associated with approximately 3.9% reduction in the probability of winning the Nobel Prize. Given that winng the Prize is a very unlikely outcome, a probability difference of this magnitude is not negligible.

Our results reveal correlation rather than causality and we cannot tell what mechanism drives our findings. One possible explanation is discrimination, whereby the nominators and/or the selection committee (subconsciously) consider attractive scientists as less serious and not fitting the expectations that they have about what a top scientist looks like. A google image search for ‘typical scientist’ very clearly demonstrates the stereotypes that we hold about what a scientist should look like. Such a search produces few images of persons who would be generally considered attractive (being male, older, with eye glasses and bad hair apparently are among the chief hallmarks of achievement in science). Even fewer of them are women (let alone attractive women), suggesting that female scientists are especially likely to suffer from such stereotyping. Therefore, a top scientist whose appearance does not fit our expectations may have a harder time convincing others their merits. This is in line with a recent result by Gheorghiu, Callan and Skylark (2017), who find that attractive scientists are less likely to be seen as ‘good scientists’ by the participants in their experiment.

Another possibility, however, is that attractive scientists have better alternative options besides top research. Looking good boosts one’s labor market performance and promotion chances, so that attractive academics may be more likely to take up leadership positions with more responsibilities, better pay, higher administrative burden, and less time for pure science. Good looking researchers also have richer options in their social, love and family spheres of life. Therefore, attractive scientists may devote less time and effort to the kind of research that would be likely to lead to a path-breaking contribution that would earn them the Nobel Prize. The limited information that we have on our sample of scientists does not allow us to discriminate between these two alternative hypotheses.

Finally, it is interesting that the impact of physical attractiveness is different for top and mainstream scientists. In related research, Paphawasit and Fidrmuc (2017) consider the effect of good looks on publication quality (journal rank and impact factor) and citations of a broad cross-section of academics in the discipline of economics, and find a positive relationship of both outcomes with physical attractiveness. Therefore, attractive persons are more successful even in research, except at the very top of the distribution of talent.


Sunday, March 18, 2018

Knowledge of human nature: Harrods, and your job being to be sacked

An employee whose job was to be sacked. By Henry Tapper.
https://henrytapper.com/2010/01/09/an-employee-whose-job-was-to-be-sacked/ 
According to no less an authority than Danny Baker, this story is absolutely true.

Harrods in the sixties employed someone to be sacked- surely the best job in the world.
Apparently  the employee was paid to sit among the boxes on Harrods top-floor smoking his pipe and reading the Sporting Life. From time to time a bell would ring and he would be summoned to a department where an irate customer was  being mollified by the Head of the Department.

Let us say today that Lady Ponsonby-Waffles has discovered one of the precious china teacups she recently purchased is chipped.

The Department Head greets our friend with “Lady Ponsonby-Waffles is a most valued customer, your failure to check the quality of her china cups has led to her current predicament, you sir are fired.”

Despite Lady Ponsonby-Waffles pleas for mercy, the Head cannot be swayed. Our friend slopes disconsolately to the exit. Lady Ponsonby-Waffles drops her complaint convinced to the store’s determination to enforce the highest standards. Our friend, once passing the Department’s exit, slips back to his Sporting Life and his Pipe, to await the next occasion he would be called upon to be sacked.
Now, how likely is that this happened at all? Or is happening now? I would like to see your comments...

Fear of missing out: prevalence, dynamics, and consequences of experiencing FOMO

Fear of missing out: prevalence, dynamics, and consequences of experiencing FOMO. Marina Milyavskaya et al. Motivation and Emotion, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11031-018-9683-5

Abstract: Fear of missing out, known colloquially as FOMO, appears to be a common experience, and has recently become part of the vernacular, receiving frequent mentions in the popular media. The present paper provides a multi-method empirical examination of FOMO. In a first study, experience sampling was used to assess FOMO experiences among college freshmen. Nightly diaries and end-of-semester measures provided data on the short and long-term consequences of experiencing FOMO. Results showed that students experience FOMO frequently, particularly later in the day and later in the week, and while doing a required task like studying or working. More frequent experiences of FOMO were associated with negative outcomes both daily and over the course of the semester, including increasing negative affect, fatigue, stress, physical symptoms, and decreased sleep. A second experimental study investigated FOMO on a conceptual level, distinguishing FOMO from general self-regulation and exploring its links with social media.


Saturday, March 17, 2018

Intelligence and religious disbelief in the United States

Intelligence and religious disbelief in the United States. Tatiene C. Souza, Francisco Cribari–Netob. Intelligence, Volume 68, May–June 2018, Pages 48–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2018.02.004

Highlights
•    We estimate the impact of intelligence on religious disbelief in the U.S.
•    The impact is strictly increasing with average intelligence.
•    The impact is stronger the Extended Bible Belt.
•    There is a ‘hurdle effect’ that only takes place in the most religious area of the U.S.
•    If average intelligence in all fifty states were equal to the maximal value there would be an increase of approximately 20% in the number of atheists.

Abstract: We estimate the net effect of intelligence on the prevalence of atheists in the United States. We evaluate such an effect both at the mean and at different quantiles of the conditional distribution of the proportion of atheists using data on all fifty U.S. states. The results show that the net effect of intelligence on religious disbelief is strictly increasing. This pattern is different from that found elsewhere (Cribari-Neto and Souza, 2013) using data from over 100 countries in which the effect peaks and then weakens. We show that in the U.S. the effect is also stronger outside what we call the ‘Extended Bible Belt’. Our results also point to the existence of a ‘hurdle effect’ that only takes place the U.S. most religious area. In that area, the effect of average intelligence on the prevalence of religious disbelievers, albeit positive, loses strength above the conditional median, i.e., where there already are more atheists. Such a loss in strength above the conditional median does not happen in the rest of the country.

Keywords: Atheism; Beta regression; Intelligence; Quantile regression

Friday, March 16, 2018

Low subjective SES was related to increased aggression, and subjective SES was not negatively related to trait and state measures of prosociality

Does Low (vs. High) Subjective Socioeconomic Status Increase Both Prosociality and Aggression? Tobias Greitemeyer and Christina Sagioglou. Social Psychology (2018), 49, pp. 76-87. https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-9335/a000331

Abstract. Previous research has shown that people of low subjective socioeconomic status (SES) are more likely to experience compassion and provide help to others than people of high SES. However, low subjective SES also appears to be related to more hostile and aggressive responding. Given that prosociality is typically an antagonist of aggression, we examined whether low subjective SES individuals could be indeed more prosocial and antisocial. Five studies –two correlational, three experimental– found that low subjective SES was related to increased aggression. In contrast, subjective SES was not negatively related to trait and state measures of prosociality.

Keywords: socioeconomic status, aggression, prosocial behavior, empathy, social class

Decreased cognitive and motivational bias –cognitive ability, cognitive curiosity, and melancholy and introversion– predicted better social psychological skill

Social Psychological Skill and Its Correlates. Anton Gollwitzer and John A. Bargh. Social Psychology (2018), 49, pp. 88-102. https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-9335/a000332

Abstract. In six studies (N = 1,143), we investigated social psychological skill – lay individuals’ skill at predicting social psychological phenomena (e.g., social loafing, attribution effects). Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated reliable individual differences in social psychological skill. In Studies 2, 3, and 4, attributes associated with decreased cognitive and motivational bias – cognitive ability, cognitive curiosity, and melancholy and introversion – predicted social psychological skill. Studies 4 and 5 confirmed that social psychological skill is distinct from other skills (e.g., test-taking skills, intuitive physics), and relates directly to reduced motivational bias (i.e., self-deception). In Study 6, social psychological skill related to appreciating the situational causes of another individual’s behavior – reduced fundamental attribution error. Theoretical and applied implications are considered.

Keywords: social psychological skill, predicting social psychological phenomena, motivational bias, cognitive bias, generalized person perception

For women, coitus alone is insufficient for triggering orgasm, puzzling researchers who expect orgasm to be an outcome of procreative intercourse. We examine the evolutionary role for prosociality that such unreliability of orgasm at coitus might have played in human evolution

Kennedy J, Pavličev M. Female orgasm and the emergence of prosocial empathy: An evo-devo perspective. J Exp Zool (Mol Dev Evol). 2018;1–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/jez.b.22795

Abstract: In human females, direct or indirect stimulation of the clitoris plays a central role in reaching orgasm. A majority of women report that penetrative coitus alone is insufficient for triggering orgasm, puzzling researchers who expect orgasm to be an outcome of procreative intercourse. In the present paper, we turn our attention to the evolutionary role that such unreliability of orgasm at coitus might have played in human evolution. We emphasize that we do not thereby attempt an explanation of its origin, but its potential evolutionary effect. The present proposal suggests that the variable female orgasm, the position of the clitoris remote from the vagina, and the mismatch of the male refractory period with the female capacity for multiple orgasms, may have contributed to the evolution of human prosocial qualities.

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Prosocial empathy as discussed here is an essential feature of human social life and includes the quality sometimes called intersubjectivity or mind-reading. Related to theory of mind in psychology, this is the ability of individuals to know with some accuracy what another person is thinking and how they feel. The ability seems to function differently from ordinary objective inference from perception; intersubjectivity is a low-latency process that allows nearly instantaneous understanding of others. Although it is difficult to assess intersubjectivity in nonhuman species, there is evidence that some other species are capable of it to some degree (e.g., deWaal, 2010).

The present thesis is that the anatomical separation of orgasm from the reproductive function in humans may have led to the emergence of a new kind of prosocial empathy or intersubjectivity. The fact that coitus alone is reliably sufficient for the male's but not the female's orgasm set the stage for a selection criterion where females preferred to mate with males who had a particular kind of social insight, motivation, and self-discipline that enabled them to elicit orgasm. The preferred male would have been one showing an active interest in his partner's experience; he would have the interpersonal sensitivity to identify what “works” sexually and to adjust his behavior in response to her responding, and the motivation and self-discipline to defer his own ejaculation until she had reached orgasm.We are proposing that a cluster of empathic prosocial tendencies may have come to dominance in the human species as a consequence of this sexual selection process.

That is not to say that this is the only path leading to modern human eusociality; the ability to understand how others think and feel would have introduced advantages across the range of social behaviors that helped the species overcome several fitness challenges. In the long run, we would expect the effect of human sexual asymmetry to integrate into a comprehensive schema of human sociality, as several types of selective pressures converged to produce themodern human.

A recent approach to understanding intersubjective empathy has emerged from the discovery of mirror neurons (Di Pellegrino, Fadiga, Fogassi, Gallese,&Rizzolatti, 1992), which respond when a subject performs a behavior and also sympathetically when the subject observes another individual perform that same behavior. Iacobonni (2009) has argued that neural mirroring answers the question of how humans can have access and understanding of others’ minds. According to this view, intersubjectivity ormind-reading emerges from a real-time mental simulation of the other person's behavior, with the subject literally feeling what it is like to be the other person. This simultaneous simulation can support social collaboration and interaction at a level unknown to species lacking the ability. A population of individuals sympathetically tuned to one another may produce a “shared manifold” (Gallese, 2003) comprising a communal empathic understanding of selves and others.

Mirror neuron research provoked great initial interest, which has been followed by the current phase of caution and skeptical enthusiasm asmore thorough knowledge is gained about the function of these specialized neurons in humans. Whether mirror neurons are found to be the mechanism for it or not, the concept of real-time simulation of others has suggested a new way of looking at social empathy. Citing mirror neuron research in apes and humans, deWaal (2010) emphasizes that human mind-reading abilities are continuous with those of other species. Attributing intersubjective empathy to other apes as well as humans, de Waal (2010) points to the importance of “body-mapping,” of identifying one's body with another's, where an individual can feel in their own body what the other person is experiencing in theirs. In de Waal's narrative, empathy and self-awareness are linked, and are not unique to human beings; he demonstrates the existence of empathy in elephants, dolphins, and apes, and notes that among these species it is comparable to empathy in humans.

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Check also Gallup, G. G., Jr., Towne, J. P., & Stolz, J. A. (2017). An Evolutionary Perspective on Orgasm. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/11/an-evolutionary-perspective-on-orgasm.html

And: Male Qualities and Likelihood of Orgasm. James M. Sherlock, Morgan J Sidari. In T.K. Shackelford, V.A. Weekes-Shackelford (eds.), Encyclopedia of Evolutionary Psychological Science, www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/male-qualities-and-likelihood-of-orgasm.html