Sunday, August 11, 2019

How different type of comments (emotional/factual content, supportive/contradicting content, low/high number of likes) could influence the credibility of the associated information? Seems that nothing at all

Martončik, Marcel, and Matus Adamkovic. 2019. “Comments' Influence on Message Credibility.” PsyArXiv. July 31. doi:10.31234/osf.io/euj9m

Abstract: In the present era full of hoaxes, conspiracies, and fake news, the credibility of information is a necessary and important attribute that internet media, and especially news publishers, strive to achieve. It is natural that readers evaluate the trustworthiness of information they read. According to the previous research, such an evaluation could be influenced by many cues, for example, the presence of discussion comments, likes or shares. In the present article, we examine how different type of comments (emotional/factual content, supportive/contradicting content, low/high number of likes) could influence the credibility of the associated information. The research sample consisted of 924 participants from Slovakia. Using a path analysis and MANCOVA, none of the experimental conditions had a substantial effect on the perceived message credibility. The obtained results contradict the existing empirical evidence. One of the explanations of the null results might dwell in the underpowered design of the existing studies. Many of them have low sensitivity to detect even medium effects or are absenting any form of corrections of the family-wise error rate.

Spider monkeys are more sensitive to the taste of ethanol than rats and humans, and they prefer ecologically relevant suprathreshold concentrations of ethanol over water

Taste responsiveness of spider monkeys to dietary ethanol. Daniel Dausch Ibañez, Laura Teresa Hernandez Salazar, Matthias Laska. Chemical Senses, August 11 2019, bjz049, https://doi.org/10.1093/chemse/bjz049

Abstract: Recent studies suggest that frugivorous primates might display a preference for the ethanol produced by microbia in overripe, fermenting fruit as an additional source of calories. We therefore assessed the taste responsiveness of eight spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) to the range of ethanol concentrations found in overripe, fermenting fruit (0.05-3.0%) and determined taste preference thresholds as well as relative taste preferences for ethanol presented in sucrose solutions and in fruit matrices, respectively. Using a two-bottle preference test of short duration (1 min) we found that spider monkeys are able to detect ethanol concentrations as low as 0.5%, that they prefer ethanol concentrations up to 3% over water, and that they prefer sucrose solutions and pureed fruit spiked with ethanol over equimolar sucrose solutions and pureed fruit without ethanol. However, when presented with an ethanol-spiked sucrose solution and a higher-concentrated sucrose solution without ethanol the animals clearly preferred the latter, even when the sucrose-ethanol mixture contained three times more calories. These results demonstrate that spider monkeys are more sensitive to the taste of ethanol than rats and humans, and that they prefer ecologically relevant suprathreshold concentrations of ethanol over water. Tests with sucrose solutions and pureed fruits that were either spiked with ethanol or not suggest that sweetness may be more important for the preferences displayed by the spider monkeys than the calories provided by ethanol. The present results therefore do not support the notion that dietary ethanol might be used by frugivorous primates as a supplemental source of calories.

Keywords: dietary ethanol, taste preference threshold, relative taste preference, spider monkeys, Ateles geoffroyi

Orgasm, gender, and responses to heterosexual casual sex

Orgasm, gender, and responses to heterosexual casual sex. Jennifer L. Piemonte, Terri D. Conley, Staci Gusakova. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 151, 1 December 2019, 109487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.06.030

Abstract: There is a persistent gender difference in how positively young adults react to casual sex, with men reporting slightly more positive responses than women. Multiple factors have been studied as possible explanations for the gender difference, but nothing has completely accounted the variance between women and men's responses to casual sex. Although prior research identifies sexual pleasure as a primary factor associated with positive responses, women and men may understand or report on this construct differently due to gendered socialization, making it difficult to compare responses across groups. One measure that is less subject to subjective interpretation or response bias may be whether a person orgasms during a given casual sex encounter. In the present research, we test the relationships between gender, orgasm, and reactions following most recent casual sex encounter across three samples of young adults. Results indicate that orgasm mediates the gender difference in how positively participants respond to casual sex. Specifically, men are more likely to orgasm during casual sex, and people who orgasm during casual sex are more likely to experience positive reactions afterwards. Therefore, while gender may be one way to describe the discrepancy in how positive people feel following casual sex, orgasm explains it.

Keywords: Casual sexGender differencesEmotional reactionsOrgasmEmerging adults

Parrots Voluntarily Help Each Other to Obtain Food Rewards

Brucks, Désirée and von Bayern, Auguste, Parrots Voluntarily Help Each Other to Obtain Food Rewards (July 26, 2019). CURRENT-BIOLOGY-D-19-01163. SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3427278

Abstract: Helping others to obtain benefits, even at a cost to oneself (altruism), poses an evolutionary puzzle (Clutton-Brock 2009). While kin selection explains such ‘selfless’ acts amongst relatives, only reciprocity (paying back received favours) entails fitness benefits for unrelated individuals (Taborsky et al. 2016). So far, experimental evidence for both altruistic helping and reciprocal altruism has been reported in a few mammals but no avian species (Massen et al. 2015). In order to gain insights into the evolutionary origin of altruistic helping and reciprocity, the capacity for altruism of non-mammalian species needs to be investigated. We tested two parrot species in an instrumental helping paradigm involving ‘token transfer’. Here, actors could provide tokens to their neighbour, who could exchange them with an experimenter for food. To verify whether the parrots understood the task’s contingencies, we systematically varied the presence of a partner and the possibility for exchange. We found that African grey parrots voluntarily and spontaneously transferred tokens to conspecific partners, whereas significantly fewer transfers occurred in the control conditions. Additionally, transfers were affected by the strength of the dyads’ affiliation and partially by the receivers’ attention-getting behaviours. Furthermore, the birds reciprocated the help once the roles were reversed. Blue-headed macaws, in contrast, transferred hardly any tokens. Species differences in social tolerance might explain this discrepancy. These findings show that altruistic helping based on a prosocial attitude, accompanied but not necessarily sustained by reciprocity, is present in parrots, suggesting that this capacity evolved convergently in this avian group and mammals.

Keywords: altruism, altruistic helping, prosociality, parrots, reciprocity, social tolerance

School Enjoyment at Age 6 Predicts Later Educational Achievement as Strongly as Socioeconomic Background and Gender

Morris, Tim, Danny Dorling, Neil M. Davies, and George D. Smith. 2019. “School Enjoyment at Age 6 Predicts Later Educational Achievement as Strongly as Socioeconomic Background and Gender.” SocArXiv. August 10. doi:10.31235/osf.io/e6c37

Abstract: Education is influenced by a broad range of factors including socioeconomic background, cognitive ability, and the school environment. However, there has been limited research into the role that school enjoyment, particularly at the start of schooling, plays in the development of pupil’s education and their final attainment. In this study we used data from a UK cohort, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children to answer three related research questions. Is school enjoyment patterned by gender, socioeconomic background of cognitive ability? How well does school enjoyment explain later educational attainment? Does early school enjoyment at age 6 explain social or gender differences in later educational attainment at age 16? Our results show that school enjoyment measured at age 6 associates with gender and cognitive ability, but not with family socioeconomic background. For example, girls were over two and half times more likely to report enjoying school than boys (OR: 2.62; 95% Confidence Interval: 2.11, 3.24). School enjoyment and later attainment were also associated, whereby pupils who reported enjoying school at both ages scored on average 29.9 (20.2, 39.6) more points, equivalent to a 5-grade increase across all GCSE’s, and were 72% more likely to obtain 5+ A*-C GCSE’s including Maths and English (OR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.38, 2.08) than those who did not enjoy school. Differences in school enjoyment helped to statistically explain the gender attainment gap, with boys’ GCSE attainment more strongly linked to school enjoyment than girls. These results highlight the importance of school enjoyment for educational attainment. As a potentially more modifiable factor than socioeconomic background, cognitive ability or gender, school enjoyment may represent a promising intervention target for reducing educational inequalities and future experimental designs are required to test causation.


Neural Responses to Sexual Stimuli in Heterosexual and Homosexual Men and Women: Men’s Responses Are More Specific

Neural Responses to Sexual Stimuli in Heterosexual and Homosexual Men and Women: Men’s Responses Are More Specific. Adam Safron et al. August 9 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-019-01521-z

Abstract: Patterns of genital arousal in response to gendered sexual stimuli (i.e., sexual stimuli presenting members of only one sex at a time) are more predictive of men’s than of women’s sexual orientations. Additional lines of evidence may shed light on the nature of these differences. We measured neural activation in homosexual and heterosexual men and women using fMRI while they viewed three kinds of gendered sexual stimuli: pictures of nude individuals, pictures of same-sex couples interacting, and videos of individuals self-stimulating. The primary neural region of interest was the ventral striatum (VS), an area of central importance for reward processing. For all three kinds of stimuli and for both VS activation and self-report, men’s responses were more closely related to their sexual orientations compared with women’s. Furthermore, men showed a much greater tendency to respond more positively to stimuli featuring one sex than to stimuli featuring the other sex, leading to higher correlations among men’s responses as well as higher correlations between men’s responses and their sexual orientations. Whole-brain analyses identified several other regions showing a similar pattern to the VS, and none showed an opposite pattern. Because fMRI is measured identically in men and women, our results provide the most direct evidence to date that men’s sexual arousal patterns are more gender specific than women’s.

Keywords: Sexual orientation Sexual arousal fMRI Sex differences Ventral striatum Reward Category specificity

Singles of both sexes expedite reproduction: Shifts in sexual-timing strategies before and after the typical age of female menopause

Singles of both sexes expedite reproduction: Shifts in sexual-timing strategies before and after the typical age of female menopause. Samantha E. Cohen et al. Evolution and Human Behavior, August 10 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2019.08.001

Abstract: How do singles' strategies for engaging in sexual activity with a new partner vary across the adult lifespan? Using three large and independent demographically representative cross-sectional samples of heterosexual single adults in the U.S., we found that females approaching the typical age of menopause became less likely to establish relationship exclusivity prior to sexual activity with a new partner. However, after the typical age of menopausal onset, females returned to earlier levels of commitment choosiness. These changes in commitment choosiness surrounding the age of menopause were consistent across two studies (including a larger dataset combining two samples). Findings suggest that single females approaching menopause—a major life history milestone—alter their behavior to achieve reproductively relevant partnering goals but abandon this mating strategy once the typical reproductive period has ended. Males exhibited similar, though attenuated, changes in expected relationship commitment before sexual activity during midlife as well. Age-related changes in commitment corresponded with the amount of stress expressed regarding one's “biological clock”. However, reduced commitment choosiness did not vary with frequency of sexual thoughts, frequency of sexual behaviors, or external pressures to find a romantic partner. Results are discussed in terms of life history theory and sex differences in sexuality.

Keywords: Reproduction expeditingLife history theorySexual behaviorSexual timingMating strategiesMenopause

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Mate choice is generally regarded as an independent event; there is a growing evidence that it can be influenced by social information provided by conspecifics, including to copy mate choice or rejection

Factors that affect non-independent mate choice. Ryan C Scauzillo, Michael H Ferkin
Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, blz112, August 6 2019, https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blz112

Abstract: Mate choice is generally regarded as an independent event, but a growing body of evidence indicates that it can be influenced by social information provided by conspecifics. This is known as non-independent mate choice. Individuals use information gathered by observing interactions between conspecifics to copy or not copy the mate choice of these conspecifics. In this review, we examine the factors that affect non-independent mate choice and mate choice copying and how it is influenced by social and environmental information that is available to the subject or focal individual. Specifically, we discuss how non-independent mate choice and whether individuals copy the choices of conspecifics can be influenced by factors such as habitat and differences in ecology, mating system and parental care. We focus on the social information provided to the focal animal, the model and the audience. Nearly all studies of non-independent mate choice and mate copying have focused on individuals in species that use visual cues as the source of social information. Nevertheless, we highlight studies that indicate that individuals in some species may use chemical cues and signals as sources of social information that may affect non-independent mate choice and mate copying.

Keywords: audience effect context, focal individuals, mate choice copying, non-independent mate choice, social information



Religiosity significantly correlated with self-report measures of prosociality (r = .15), but among samples using a behavioral measure of prosociality, the effect was only marginally significant (r = .04)

A meta-analysis of religious prosociality. Kelly, John Michael. Thesis, Univ of California at Irvine, 2019. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/74r7n99q

Abstract: This meta-analysis explores the longstanding and heavily debated question of whether religiosity is associated with prosocial and antisocial behavior. In an analysis of 179 effects across 89 samples, encompassing 167,508 participants, a significant relationship of r = .10 was found between religiosity and prosociality. However, substantial heterogeneity of methods was identified, and several potential moderators of this relationship were explored. The effect was most powerfully moderated by the type of measurement used to assess prosocial or antisocial behavior. Religiosity significantly correlated with self-report measures of prosociality at r = .15, but among samples using a behavioral measure of prosociality, the effect was only a marginally significant r = .04. Three possible explanations of this moderation are discussed, namely that 1) lab-based methods do not accurately capture religious prosociality; 2) the self-report effect is explained by religious self-enhancement; or 3) both religiosity and self-reported prosociality are explained by self-enhancement. Recommendations for future research are discussed that may help resolve these possible explanations. Other potential moderators are analyzed, including whether religiosity is differently related to prosocial and antisocial behavior.

Users seek to maintain favorable impressions by balancing personal vs public information, maintaining a sense of authenticity; resending inspirational news seems to threaten that in Twitter

Spreading the Good News: Analyzing Socially Shared Inspirational News Content. Qihao Ji et al. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, December 11, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699018813096

Abstract: Past research indicates that people often share awe-inspiring news online. However, little is known about the content of those stories. In this study, more broadly defined “inspirational” articles shared through The New York Times website over a 6-month period were analyzed, with the goals of describing the content and identifying characteristics that might predict inspirationality and measures of retransmission. The results provided a snapshot of content found within inspirational news stories; they also revealed that self-transcendent language use predicted the inspirationality of a news story, as well as how long an article appeared on a most shared list.

Keywords: self-transcendent media experiences, inspirational media, news sharing, news retransmission, content analysis

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Twitter was the least likely platform for inspirational news retransmission [...] users generally seek to maintain favorable impressions by balancing the disclosure of personal versus public information, avoiding certain topics of discussion, and maintaining a sense of authenticity. Many inspirational stories might challenge that balance, perhaps being viewed as “too personal” for broadcasting platforms by some users. Such concerns would seemingly be minimized—or perhaps virtually nonexistent—when private or narrowcast communication means (like email) are used to share such content with specific individuals. Additional studies empirically testing these propositions are encouraged.

Why We Verify a News Report? Lower intent to verify when we believe the headline is not true (because of low trust in the source or because it goes against our politics); we verify to win debates

When Do Audiences Verify? How Perceptions About Message and Source Influence Audience Verification of News Headlines. Stephanie Edgerly et al. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, August 5, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699019864680

Abstract: In today’s media landscape, people are encouraged to verify the news and information they encounter. Using an online experiment, this study explores audience’s intent to verify a news headline by manipulating whether the headline is true or false, from a source that varies in credibility, and perceived to be congruent or incongruent with participants’ partisanship. Results show that participants exhibit a higher intent to verify when they believe the headline is true, which is predicted by perceived congruency with preexisting ideological leanings. We discuss these findings in terms of the normative limitations of audience verification.

Keywords: audience verification, partisanship, news evaluations, motivated reasoning


Côté et al. argue that societies with a higher level of inequality foster a sense of entitlement in high-income individuals, which in turn leads them to be less generous; this last is not reproducible

Does economic inequality moderate the effect of class on prosocial behavior? A large-scale test of a recent hypothesis by Côté et al. Hagen von Hermanni, Andreas Tutić. PLOS, August 9, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220723

Abstract: Empirical research has provided mixed evidence regarding the question of whether higher social class promotes prosocial behavior. Recently, Côté et al. [1] hypothesized that these conflicting evidences might result from a hitherto neglected interaction between the individual’s level of income and the degree of inequality in one’s society. They argue that societies with a higher level of inequality foster a sense of entitlement in high-income individuals, which in turn leads them to be less generous. We put this reasoning to a large-scale test using observational data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and push the scope of our investigation towards a broader conception of social class, using next to income two additional measures of class. First, we examine whether high-class individuals in societies with high levels of inequality do in fact feel more entitled than their counterparts in more equal societies. While we find that an individual’s class and the disposition towards entitlement are strongly correlated, our results show a negative interaction with inequality, i.e. the effect of class on the personal sense of entitlement is weaker in societies with high levels of inequality. Second, we test whether the effect of class on prosocial behavior is moderated by economic inequality with respect to two real-life acts of prosocial behavior, namely engaging in volunteer work and donating money to a humanitarian organization. Our results indicate a substantial positive effect of class on prosocial behavior throughout, as well as a moderate, yet positive, interaction effect of class and inequality.


One proposed function of imagery is to make thoughts more emotionally evocative through sensory simulations; novel test of this theory utilizing a special population with no visual imagery: Aphantasia

The critical role of mental imagery in human emotion: insights from Aphantasia. Marcus Wicken, Rebecca Keogh, Joel Pearson. bioRxiv, Aug 6 2019. https://doi.org/10.1101/726844

Abstract: One proposed function of imagery is to make thoughts more emotionally evocative through sensory simulations. Here we report a novel test of this theory utilizing a special population with no visual imagery: Aphantasia. After using multi-method verification of aphantasia, we show that this condition, but not the general population, is associated with a flat-line physiological response to frightening written, but not perceptual scenarios, supporting imagery’s critical role in emotion.

Intelligence is a well-studied construct that has correlations with many educational, employment, & health outcomes; there is a lack of education in the area, & so incorrect beliefs about intelligence are widespread

Warne, Russell T., and Jared Z. Burton. 2019. “The Neglected Intelligence Course: Needs and Suggested Solutions.” PsyArXiv. January 8. doi:10.31234/osf.io/epu2s (https://psyarxiv.com/epu2s/)

Abstract: Intelligence is a well-studied construct in psychology that has correlational relationships with many educational, employment, and health outcomes. However, prior research indicates that incorrect beliefs about intelligence are widespread. In an effort to discern the degree to which the psychology curriculum is responsible for these inaccuracies, we collected course descriptions and catalog information from 303 American colleges and universities. We found that college courses dedicated to mainstream intelligence science are rare. Because the lack of intelligence education within psychology is a plausible contributor to incorrect beliefs about intelligence, we present an outline for a college-level course on intelligence. We also provide advice for implementing a course, including course readings and advice for handling controversies.



The human imagination: the cognitive neuroscience of visual mental imagery

The human imagination: the cognitive neuroscience of visual mental imagery. Joel Pearson.
Nature Reviews Neuroscience (2019). August 5 2019. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41583-019-0202-9

Abstract: Mental imagery can be advantageous, unnecessary and even clinically disruptive. With methodological constraints now overcome, research has shown that visual imagery involves a network of brain areas from the frontal cortex to sensory areas, overlapping with the default mode network, and can function much like a weak version of afferent perception. Imagery vividness and strength range from completely absent (aphantasia) to photo-like (hyperphantasia). Both the anatomy and function of the primary visual cortex are related to visual imagery. The use of imagery as a tool has been linked to many compound cognitive processes and imagery plays both symptomatic and mechanistic roles in neurological and mental disorders and treatments.

Friday, August 9, 2019

Among tens of thousands of camgirls (seen 35+ mn times per day), competition is won by those clothed with their face fully shown; it seems men prefer some slow-building 'courtship'

Laura Johnsen, Isaac Cormier, Maryanne L. Fisher (2019). An Ethological Study of Camgirls: Plentiful, Sexually Available Virtual Women for Hire. Human Ethology, 34(Suppl.), HES39, Aug 2019. https:// doi.org/10.22330/he/34/suppl

ABSTRACT: Camgirls are defined as “young women that operate their own webcams to communicate with a broad audience online, often engaging in explicit behaviour in real-time in return for financial compensation” (Bleakley, 2014, p. 893). The number of camgirls is staggering; LiveJasmin.com reported over 2000 models at any given moment, with 35-40 million daily visitors in 2017. The unfettered access to live-action explicit performances can be overwhelming for viewers, and given that there are numerous websites, and therefore tens of thousands of camgirls, there is competition amongst the performers to solicit interest from viewers. We examined the various behaviours camgirls use to obtain viewers and explore whether their appearance and behaviors reflect evolutionary themes regarding mate preferences. Data were collected from the models featured on the homepage of a popular live streaming adult webcam platform. Over seven days, we took screenshots of the first 15 camgirls on the homepage of the site twice a day. We coded their behaviors (ranging from clothed with no stimulation to fully nude with stimulation), facial appearance (e.g., full face shown, partial face shown, face not shown), and body type. Number of views per show were also recorded. Preliminary analysis suggests that camgirls that are clothed and have their face fully shown have a higher number of viewers than those with full nudity or partial face covering.  This may indicate that an appealing aspect of camgirls is related to the viewer engaging in a slow-building ‘courtship’ that ends with a sexual interaction as opposed to viewing the camgirls in mid-performance for a brief sexual release.

Is the global prevalence rate of adult mental illness increasing? Systematic review and meta‐analysis says no.

Is the global prevalence rate of adult mental illness increasing? Systematic review and meta‐analysis. Dirk Richter, Abbie Wall, Ashley Bruen, Richard Whittington. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, August 8 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/acps.13083

Abstract
Objectives: The question whether mental illness prevalence rates are increasing is a controversially debated topic. Epidemiological articles and review publications that look into this research issue are often compromised by methodological problems. The present study aimed at using a meta‐analysis technique that is usually applied for the analysis of intervention studies to achieve more transparency and statistical precision.

Methods: We searched Pubmed, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Google Scholar and reference lists for repeated cross‐sectional population studies on prevalence rates of adult mental illness based on ICD‐ or DSM‐based diagnoses, symptom scales and distress scales that used the same methodological approach at least twice in the same geographical region. The study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018090959).

Results: We included 44 samples from 42 publications, representing 1,035,697 primary observations for the first time point and 783,897 primary observations for the second and last time point. Studies were conducted between 1978 and 2015. Controlling for a hierarchical data structure, we found an overall global prevalence increase odds ratio of 1.179 (95%‐CI: 1.065 – 1.305). A multivariate meta‐regression suggested relevant associations with methodological characteristics of included studies.

Conclusions: We conclude that the prevalence increase of adult mental illness is small and we assume that this increase is mainly related to demographic changes.


Compared to fictional agents, religious agents were ascribed a higher proportion of abilities that violated folk psychology & fewer abilities that violated folk physics and biology

The Mickey Mouse problem: Distinguishing religious and fictional counterintuitive agents. Thomas Swan, Jamin Halberstadt. PLOS, August 8, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220886

Abstract: The Mickey Mouse problem refers to the difficulty in predicting which supernatural agents are capable of eliciting belief and religious devotion. We approached the problem directly by asking participants to invent a “religious” or a “fictional” agent with five supernatural abilities. Compared to fictional agents, religious agents were ascribed a higher proportion of abilities that violated folk psychology or that were ambiguous–violating nonspecific or multiple domains of folk knowledge–and fewer abilities that violated folk physics and biology. Similarly, participants rated folk psychology violations provided by the experimenter as more characteristic of religious agents than were violations of folk physics or folk biology, while fictional agents showed no clear pattern. Religious agents were also judged as more potentially beneficial, and more ambivalent (i.e., similar ratings of benefit and harm), than fictional agents, regardless of whether the agents were invented or well-known to participants. Together, the results support a motivational account of religious belief formation that is facilitated by these biases.

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Discussion

Cognitive scientists of religion still don’t know why only some counterintuitive agents are believable and worthy of devotion. We examined the characteristics of religious and nonreligious supernatural agents directly and found four ways in which they differ. First, counterintuitive abilities that violate folk psychology were more salient for participant-invented religious agents than for nonreligious agents and were more closely associated with religious agents than other types of violations. Second, counterintuitive abilities that were ambiguous–violating nonspecific or multiple folk domains–were more salient for invented religious agents than for nonreligious agents. Third, both invented and well-known religious agents were rated more of a potential benefit than their nonreligious counterparts. Fourth, both invented and well-known religious agents were more ambivalent (i.e., the difference between a religious agent’s threat and benefit rating was relatively small) than nonreligious agents, which were more valenced towards extremes of heroism (high benefit, low threat) or villainy (low benefit, high threat).
We suggest that these biases collectively provide a template for predicting which counterintuitive agents can become objects of religious devotion. In particular, the biases for more beneficial and less threatening abilities (the latter only for well-known agents) suggest that “successful” agents must also be motivationally compelling: minimally counterintuitive traits make agents memorable, but memorable agents must satisfy psychobiological needs to become gods. Such gods are not necessarily more “powerful” or “fitness relevant” overall; it is the beneficial traits that distinguish religious agents, while threatening traits may often be higher for nonreligious agents.
Religious agents’ tendency to violate folk psychology over other folk beliefs is also consistent with this motivational interpretation. In a previous study, we found that agents with abilities that violate folk psychology were rated more of a potential opportunity (i.e., more beneficial) than agents violating folk physics or biology [35]. We surmised that agents violating folk psychology represent an opportunity to gain access to socially strategic knowledge—an opportunity that is particularly salient given our recent evolutionary history in which social threats have become increasingly costly and ubiquitous [54]. Indeed, the fact that agents have greater scope to violate folk psychology expectations may account for why agents feature prolifically in religious narratives [55], and appear more than other ontological categories (e.g., objects) in statements rated religious [14].
Nevertheless, these data only provide partial support for the motivational hypothesis. A motivation to believe in agents with beneficial abilities would not necessarily culminate in the formation of religious beliefs via motivated reasoning (i.e., biased strategies for accessing, constructing, and evaluating beliefs [28]). Belief formation also likely depends on an individual’s personality, cultural environment, and/or developmental history, among other factors. For example, people with a strong or temporarily elevated “fear of death” might possess a stronger motivation to believe in immortal beings than people with less fear [37, 38]. We consider it likely that at least some people form religious beliefs via a motivational path [3745], however, widespread belief would depend on the commonality and thresholds of these individual and cultural factors.
The ambiguous traits used to describe religious agents, while not necessarily motivationally compelling in and of themselves, may interact with other motivational states to facilitate belief. When traits are defined ambiguously, abstractly [56], or metaphorically [57, 58] it becomes easier to attribute them in motivationally attractive ways. For example, the “better than average effect,” in which people rate themselves above average on positive traits and below average on negative traits [28, 59], is smaller when traits are precisely defined (e.g., neat, athletic, sarcastic, clumsy) than when they are ambiguous (e.g., idealistic, sophisticated, impractical, insecure) [29, 60], suggesting that ambiguity allows people to reason their way toward favored conclusions more easily. Similarly, the ambiguous content attributed to religious agents may facilitate motivated reasoning, making it easier to reason toward a belief in these agents. Counterintuitive abilities that can be demonstrated in a variety of ways (violating nonspecific or multiple folk domains), might permit gods to influence manifold situations of motivational significance [24], without precluding or disconfirming their involvement in any [26]. A god’s omnipotence, control of nature, magical powers, or “mysterious ways”, for example, can be applied in whatever manner a believer deems necessary.
A common argument against motivation-based theories of religion is that some gods are not comforting–they’re scary–and why would anyone want to believe in a scary god? We suggest that, like ambiguity, ambivalence facilitates the motivated reasoning process. We think anxiety and uncertainty attributed to threat-capable gods [61] can motivate belief-reinforcing behaviors, such as rituals and other deferential practices [45, 46, 62, 63], and that these behaviors become more intuitively compelling if the agent to whom they are directed is ambivalent. For example, rituals and prayers often depict a transaction in which a god is requested to perform a counterintuitive act in return for worship, good behavior, or a tangible offering. An entirely malevolent god would have little interest in accepting requests, just as an entirely benevolent god would have little interest in refusing them. Thus, an ambivalent god is the only god for whom transactional prayers and rituals make sense. Furthermore, an ambivalent god with whom we can communicate and occasionally extract positive outcomes may be more appealing, and more plausible, than a valenced god, or a god that acts capriciously or randomly. Thus, ambivalence should help make rituals and prayers an intuitively compelling avenue through which gods can deliver benefits (see [64] for other intuitively compelling ritual content), facilitating motivated reasoning towards a belief in these gods.
One anomalous finding is that well-known fictional agents were rated more threatening than well-known religious agents, but this wasn’t the case for invented agents. Negative information, such as about threatening agents, is more cognitively attractive than positive information [65]. A cultural unfolding of this negativity bias, constrained by the motivation to disbelieve overly threatening agents, may explain why it was restricted to culturally popular fictional agents. Such agents might share or even surpass the cognitive attractiveness of religious agents, in being counterintuitive and threatening, but may lack motivational attractiveness, resulting in popular but unbelievable beings. In other cases, threat may be lacking while benefit is not, which might result in motivationally attractive beings that don’t demand our attention for long enough to become religiously established (e.g., Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny). The cognitive attractiveness of threat may therefore be an alternative or additional reason why ambivalence appears to be a key feature of religious beings.
Nevertheless, it is adaptive to pay attention to threats, and possibly also to believe the reality of those threats in some contexts. In evolutionary terms, the cost of falsely believing a threatening agent is absent should be greater than falsely believing it is present, and this negative credulity bias [66] may explain why (an apparent minority of) religious agents deviate from ambivalence into malevolence [67]. Some cultural environments may require and activate our agency detection device more than others [68], making malevolent deities more likely.
Although American participants, mostly Christian, provided our data, we would expect similar results in other cultural contexts to the extent that they afford and foster similar motivations that are natural to the human mind (e.g., to avoid negative affective states). Conversely, cultural differences in the characteristics of religious agents may reflect motivations that arise or are more salient as a consequence of particular environments. Similarly, individual differences within cultures may reflect idiosyncratic motivations (e.g., for more social contact) associated with particular traits (e.g., death anxiety). This essentially motivational account of the characteristics of religious agents has the advantage of catering to the existence of atheists: despite observing the same content and contexts as everyone else, they lack belief, presumably because they lack a motivation for which this content is relevant.
Although the current study contributes to the development of a “belief template” that could, eventually, predict which agents are most likely to inspire religious devotion, it is just a start, with several acknowledged limitations. For example, we did not measure levels of belief in the well-known agents cited by participants, which could provide a better understanding of the role of individual differences. In addition, our distinction between religious and fictional entities neglects some counterintuitive agents, such as ghosts and spirits, that many people believe exist, but that are not necessarily objects of religious devotion. Future work might present participants with specific beings, entities, and other paranormal phenomena with a diverse range of a-priori plausibility before measuring belief and their perceived features. Similarly, our request for supernatural abilities restricted the number of intuitive features that participants attributed to their invented agents. Although we found no difference in rated intuitiveness or the number of intuitive abilities listed, the trend was towards religious agents being more intuitive, as found in other work [16, 17]. Finally, our proposed template neglects some religious agents, such as Satan and Loki, that are apparently neither beneficent nor ambivalent. It could be argued that belief in such agents (and polytheism in general) is declining, in line with the template’s proposed optimum, however, in less optimal settings, the ambivalence criterion might also be applied to groupings or entire pantheons of agents. Thus, we acknowledge that cultural and environmental factors may affect the reliability of the template, which is more a measure of cultural evolutionary success than a strict set of exclusionary criteria.
These limitations notwithstanding, we suggest a religious agent template, tentatively comprising beneficent yet ambivalent agents with ambiguous and folk-psychology-violating abilities, goes some way to solving the Mickey Mouse problem. Mickey Mouse lacks the necessary beneficence, ambivalence, and ambiguity, and we therefore lack the motivation and latitude to believe he is real.

Do emotions affect the decision between change and the status quo? Data on more than 870,000 municipal vote outcomes in Switzerland: Rain decreases the share of votes for political change

Rain, Emotions and Voting for the Status Quo. Armando N. Meier, Lukas Schmid, Alois Stutzer. European Economic Review, August 8 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.014

Abstract: Do emotions affect the decision between change and the status quo? We exploit exogenous variation in emotions caused by rain and analyze data on more than 870,000 municipal vote outcomes in Switzerland to address this question. The empirical tests are based on administrative ballot outcomes and individual postvote survey data. We find that rain decreases the share of votes for political change. Our robustness checks suggest that this finding is not driven by changes in the composition of the electorate and changes in information acquisition. In addition, we provide evidence that rain might have altered the outcome of several high-stake votes. We discuss the psychological mechanism and document that rain reduces the willingness to take risks, a pattern that is consistent with the observed reduction in the support for change.

Thursday, August 8, 2019

Suicide by abdominal wounds suggesting seppuku: Case reports from Romania and an international literature review

Suicide by abdominal wounds suggesting seppuku: Case reports from Romania and an international literature review. Claudia Judea-Pusta, Alexandru Rusu, Andreea Camarasan. Aggression and Violent Behavior, Volume 47, July–August 2019, Pages 68-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2019.03.006

Highlights
•    In Romania this type of suicide is rarely practiced, commonly seen in older males.
•    Frequently the victims suffer from a mental illness, or are alcohol users.
•    The tool used is the knife; the lesions are located in the middle abdominal axis.
•    The mortality rate is higher in cases of abdominal wounds suggesting seppuku.
•    It is important to establish a differential diagnosis between suicide and homicide.

Abstract: Seppuku is a traditional suicide method practiced by honorable Japanese samurai. Today this method of suicide is rarely used in Japan or worldwide and may be exceptionally encountered in patients suffering from psychiatric disorders, the majority of them being older men. It is well known that clinical and cultural factors also play a role in practicing this method of suicide. The mortality rate is significantly higher in cases of abdominal wounds suggesting seppuku, compared to the mortality rate caused by simple stab wounds. Death can occur immediately through massive external or/and internal hemorrhage as well as later on through complications, often septic. In the Romanian forensic literature files, suicide by abdominal stabbing suggesting seppuku is rarely encountered and documented. When investigating violent deaths owing to sharp force, the role of the forensic pathologist is not only to establish the cause of death and the mechanism used for creating the lesions, but also to identify the object used for inflicting the injuries, the type of the injuries, allowing thus to formulate a conclusion from legal perspective upon the act itself: suicide or homicide? The present paper reviews the international literature and presents three cases of suicide by self- inflected abdominal stab wounds suggesting seppuku, autopsied at the Bihor County Forensic Service, Romania, during 2013–2017.


The role of media exposure on relational aggression: Exposure to relational aggression has the strongest effect on subsequent relational aggression; these results support cross-over effect

The role of media exposure on relational aggression: A meta-analysis. Nicole Martins, Andrew Weaver. Aggression and Violent Behavior, Volume 47, July–August 2019, Pages 90-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2019.03.001

Highlights
•    Exposure to relational aggression has the strongest effect on subsequent relational aggression
•    Exposure to non-specific media content has the weakest effect on relational aggression
•    Exposure to physical aggression fell in the middle of the two content types; supports cross-over effect
•    Future research should study these issues among heterogeneous populations so moderating variables can be further examined.

Abstract: We conducted a meta-analysis of 33 studies that examined the effects of media exposure on relationally aggressive behaviors and cognitions (a total of 66 effect sizes, N = (20,990). Across all types of aggressive content, there was a small positive effect (r = 0.15) on relational aggression. However, a comparison of effects sizes demonstrate that exposure to relational aggression had the strongest effect (r = 0.21), whereas exposure to non-specific media content had the weakest effect (r = 0.08). Exposure to physical aggression fell in the middle of the two content types (r = 0.15). Potential explanations for these effects as well as moderators that could influence the results are considered, and the practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Homicide and suicide appear to be more prevalent in democracies

Government political structure and violent death rates: A longitudinal analysis of forty-three countries, 1960–2008. PhillipMarotta et al. Aggression and Violent Behavior, August 8 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2019.07.008

Abstract
Objectives: Currently, little is known regarding the effect of regime type on mortality on a global level. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of regime type on the rates of violent deaths (homicide, suicide, and combined rates).

Methods: Three measures of democracy were used to quantify regime type, the independent variable. Homicide and suicide rates were obtained from the World Health Organization. Multivariate conditional fixed-effects models were run to examine associations between regime characteristics and logged rates of homicide, suicide, and violent deaths. Models were adjusted for unemployment and economic inequality.

Results: Nations that scored higher on democracy indices, especially emerging democracies, experienced increased mortality due to violence. Homicide and suicide were divergent, showing a different time course and decreasing statistical power as a combined variable. Unemployment and inequality were associated with higher violence-related mortality.

Conclusions: Homicide and suicide appear to be more prevalent in democracies. Future analyses should examine which aspects of democracies lead to higher rates of violent death and should seek to use independently collected mortality data.

From the neuroimaging data, we conclude that we cannot define the content of our thoughts during "mind blanking" because our inner speech system does not work at that time

The neural correlates of “mind blanking”: When the mind goes away. Toshikazu Kawagoe  Keiichi Onoda  Shuhei Yamaguchi. Human Brain Mapping, August 7 2019. https://doi.org/10.1002/hbm.24748

Abstract: Mind blanking (MB) is the state where our minds are seemingly “nowhere,” and attention calls no perceptual input into conscious awareness. It is little investigated, perhaps partly because it is difficult to detect the mysterious periods of blanking. In this study, we found that our participants could intentionally produce a state of MB whose neural correlates were deactivation of Broca's area and parts of the default mode network (namely, the hippocampus) which would be active during mind wandering (MW), in addition to activity in another region in the default mode network (namely, anterior cingulate cortex). Because the behavioral finding replicates a previous report of ours, we suggest that the simple instructions that we used to induce MB should be effective. From the neuroimaging data, we conclude that we cannot define the content of our thoughts during MB because our inner speech system does not work at that time. Another possibility is that we actually think of nothing in the MB state. Although more sophisticated studies would be needed to uncover the mechanism of such a phenomenon, the present study provides a methodology and clues for understanding MB and related concepts such as MW, awareness, and metacognitive ability.

Death anxiety and death acceptance in atheists and other nonbelievers: The more certainty of Atheism, the less fear of death

Death anxiety and death acceptance in atheists and other nonbelievers. Jacob S. Sawyer, Melanie E. Brewster & Melissa M. Ertl. Death Studies, Aug 7 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/07481187.2019.1648339

Abstract: This study explores how age, certainty of belief, belief in science and gender is related to death anxiety and death acceptance. Results from a sample of atheists and other nonbelievers (N = 270) in the United States suggested that age and certainty of belief were significantly related to death anxiety and death acceptance, while belief in science was not a significant predictor. In addition, women reported higher levels of death anxiety compared to men. Implications and directions for future research in death perspectives for atheists and other nonbelievers are discussed.

Check also Menzies, Ross G and Menzies, Rachel E. Fear of death: Nature, development and moderating factors [online]. In: Menzies, RE (Editor); Menzies, RG (Editor); Iverach, L (Editor). Curing the Dread of Death Theory, Research and Practice. Samford Valley, QLD: Australian Academic Press, 2018: 21-39. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/12/fear-of-death-nature-development-and.html

Also Monastic Tibetan Buddhists showed significantly greater fear of death than any other group. The monastics were also less generous than other groups about the prospect of giving up a slightly longer life in order to extend the life of another:
Nichols, S., Strohminger, N., Rai, A. and Garfield, J. (2018), Death and the Self. Cogn Sci. doi:10.1111/cogs.12590. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/monastic-tibetan-buddhists-showed.html

Do Relatives With Greater Reproductive Potential Get Help First?: A Test of the Inclusive Fitness Explanation of Kin Altruism

Do Relatives With Greater Reproductive Potential Get Help First?: A Test of the Inclusive Fitness Explanation of Kin Altruism. Jordan Schriver et al. Evolutionary Psychology, August 8, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704919867094

Abstract: According to inclusive fitness theory, people are more willing to help those they are genetically related to because relatives share a kin altruism gene and are able to pass it along. We tested this theory by examining the effect of reproductive potential on altruism. Participants read hypothetical scenarios and chose between cousins (Studies 1 and 2) and cousins and friends (Study 3) to help with mundane chores or a life-or-death rescue. In life-or-death situations, participants were more willing to help a cousin preparing to conceive rather than adopt a child (Study 1) and a cousin with high rather than low chance of reproducing (Studies 2 and 3). Patterns in the mundane condition were less consistent. Emotional closeness also contributed to helping intentions (Studies 1 and 2). By experimentally manipulating reproductive potential while controlling for genetic relatedness and emotional closeness, we provide a demonstration of the direct causal effects of reproductive potential on helping intentions, supporting the inclusive fitness explanation of kin altruism.

Keywords: altruism, inclusive fitness, reproduction, emotional closeness, family relationships

Aesthetic empowerment through music

Aesthetic empowerment through music. Elvira Brattico, Ulrika Varankaitė. Musicae Scientiae, July 20, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1029864919850606

Abstract: This article describes how aesthetic enjoyment accompanying musical activities can empower individuals in health and disease. First, we explain the biological determinants of music enjoyment and how they can be studied. In doing so, we distinguish between core sensory pleasure and conscious liking, and we illustrate their respective contributions to aesthetic appreciation and expressive interaction with music. Second, we review findings illustrating the long-term impact of listening to favourite music on the brains of healthy musicians as well as on the brains and behaviour of individuals with pathological symptoms. Based on these findings, we propose a set of putative neural mechanisms underlying aesthetic empowerment through music. We also emphasize the importance of considering individual differences in sensitivity to aesthetic experiences of music, as evidenced, for instance, by neuroimaging and imaging genetics studies, drawing the connections between dopamine neurotransmission and dopaminergic genes with the reactivity of music–brain functions.

Keywords: Aesthetics, neuroaesthetics, liking, pleasure, enjoyment, clinical applications

You’re dead to me! Social estrangements and social transgressions: A high number of estrangements corresponded to high scores on depressive tendencies and anxious attachment as well as low scores on social support

You’re dead to me! The evolutionary psychology of social estrangements and social transgressions. Glenn Geher et al. Current Psychology, August 8 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-019-00381-z

Abstract: In our species, social connections with a broad array of individuals are foundational to success. On the flip side, we have evolved so as to not be exploited by others. This dynamic is the focus of the studies described here. Study 1 examined the psychology of social estrangements. The main prediction was that the number of estrangements one has would be predictive of various adverse psychological outcomes. Using a sample of 315 young adults, we found evidence for this prediction: A high number of estrangements corresponded to high scores on depressive tendencies and anxious attachment as well as low scores on social support. In Study 2, using a between-participants methodology, we manipulated transgression intensity, target of the transgression, and whether an apology was included. 288 young adults participated. Each participant was presented with a set of stimuli representing one level of each of the three independent variables and then provided ratings for several dependent variables, such as how angry and betrayed he or she would feel in the situation. Transgression intensity and target of the transgression had consistent significant effects on the dependent variables in the predicted directions. Presence of an apology generally had little effect. In both Studies 1 and 2, high scores on the Dark Triad predicted the outcomes as well: In Study 1, a high number of estrangements corresponded to high scores on the Dark Triad. In Study 2, high scores on the Dark Triad corresponded to strong negative responses to social transgressions. Implications for the evolutionary psychology of interpersonal relationships are discussed.

Keywords: Reciprocal altruism Estrangement Social transgression Apology Forgiveness Positive evolutionary psychology

Abstract information alone is capable of changing a majority of clinicians’ care decisions; when unadjusted analyses or secondary outcomes are given undue attention in abstracts, the overall appraisal of a paper's contents is altered

Jellison S, Roberts W, Bowers A, et al. Evaluation of spin in abstracts of papers in psychiatry and psychology journals. BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine, August 5 2019, DOI: 10.1136/bmjebm-2019-111176

Introduction
Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) serve as the gold standard in psychiatry. Given the importance of such trials to clinical practice, it is imperative that results be reported objectively.

Researchers are encouraged to conduct studies and report findings according to the highest ethical standards.1 2 This standard means reporting results completely, in accordance with a protocol that outlines primary and secondary endpoints and prespecified subgroups and statistical analyses. However, authors are free to choose how to report or interpret study results. In an abstract, authors may include only the results they want to highlight or the conclusions they wish to draw. These results and conclusions, however, may not accurately summarise the findings of the study. When such a misrepresentation of study results occurs, there is said to be spin. Spin has been defined as, ‘the use of specific reporting strategies, from whatever motive, to highlight that the experimental treatment is beneficial, despite a statistically nonsignificant difference for the primary outcome, or to distract the reader from statistically nonsignificant results’.3 Many practices contribute to spin, including the selective reporting of outcomes,4 5 p-hacking,6 7 inappropriate application of statistical measures like relative risk8 and manipulation of figures or graphs.9 10

Spin in abstracts has recently been discussed in a systematic review.11 Evidence suggests that abstract information alone is capable of changing a majority of clinicians’ care decisions.12 For example, when unadjusted analyses or secondary outcomes are given undue attention in abstracts, readers’ overall appraisal of the contents of a manuscript is altered.13 Additionally, a previous systematic review showed there to be a higher rate of favourable conclusions in industry-funded studies compared with other sponsorships.14

We have evaluated the prevalence of spin in abstracts of RCTs with nonsignificant primary endpoints in the psychology and psychiatry literature and have explored the association between spin and industry funding.


Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Recreational marijuana laws reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids

The Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Dispensing on Opioid Mortality. Nathan W. Chan, Jesse Burkhardt, Matthew Flyr. Economic Enquiry, August 6 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12819

Abstract: This study documents how the changing legal status of marijuana has impacted mortality in the United States over the past two decades. We use a difference‐in‐difference approach to estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MML) and recreational marijuana laws (RML) on fatalities from opioid overdoses, and we find that marijuana access induces sharp reductions in opioid mortality rates. Our research corroborates prior findings on MMLs and offers the first causal estimates of RML impacts on opioid mortality to date, the latter of which is particularly important given that RMLs are far more expansive in scope and reach than MMLs. In our preferred econometric specification, we estimate that RMLs reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids. In further analysis, we demonstrate how RML impacts vary among demographic groups, shedding light on the distributional consequences of these laws. Our findings are especially important and timely given the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States and simultaneously evolving attitudes and regulations on marijuana use. (JEL I18, K32, H75)

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Why "the scale of the opioid crisis in the" US? Why are you working in this area and know not of other places with similar issues? Less passion and more data, it is happening also in parts of the UK (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/world/europe/scotland-heroin-deaths.html).

Though we are not yet capable of fully determining who conspiracy theorists are, conspiratorial thinking, paranormal beliefs, & political orientations are good predictors of conspiracy beliefs

Who Are Conspiracy Theorists? A Comprehensive Approach to Explaining Conspiracy Beliefs. Adam M. Enders, Steven M. Smallpage. Social Science Quarterly, August 6 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12711

Abstract
Objective: This study disentangles the known correlates of conspiracy beliefs—such as the general predisposition toward conspiratorial thinking, authoritarianism, and partisan and ideological predispositions—in order to better understand the psychological antecedents of such beliefs and answer the question: Who are conspiracy theorists?

Methods: We use classification and regression tree models to explain individual beliefs in specific conspiracy theories, employing a large set of known correlates of conspiratorial thinking.

Results: Depending on the characteristics of the conspiracy theory employed on the survey, we find that political orientations and conspiratorial thinking provide the most analytical leverage in predicting individual conspiracy beliefs. Furthermore, paranormal beliefs were more predictive than previous literature suggests, while psychological biases demonstrated very limited predictive utility.

Conclusions: The psychological antecedents of conspiracy beliefs used to explain those beliefs vary considerably by the stimuli or events at the center of a given conspiracy theory. Therefore, disproportionately favoring one type of conspiracy theory on one's survey may result in inferences about conspiracy theorists that do not translate across studies. Furthermore, though we are not yet capable of fully determining who conspiracy theorists are, conspiratorial thinking, paranormal beliefs, and political orientations are more predictive of particular conspiracy beliefs than other attitudes, predispositions, and orientations.

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A great deal of recent research has demonstrated that conspiracy beliefs are a central component of modern culture and politics (e.g., Brotherton, 2015; Oliver and Wood, 2014; Uscinski and Parent, 2014), rather than indicators of radical alienation or psychopathology. More commonplace than once thought, belief in conspiracy theories can have negative effects on individuals and democratic society. For example, mere exposure to conspiracy theories has been found to reduce individual intention to vote and make political donations (Butler, Koopman, and Zimbardo, 1995), participate in politics more generally (Jolley and Douglas, 2014), and place trust in government services and institutions (Einstein and Glick, 2015). Thus, understanding conspiracy theories and those who believe them has positive implications not only for “conspiracy theorists,” but also for those around them, as well as normative implications for theories of culture and government. The rapidly expanding, albeit nascent, literature on conspiracy theories has identified a substantial set of attitudes, predispositions, orientations, and psychological mechanisms that are related to conspiracy beliefs. One characteristic shared by many of these studies is a focus on one, or a small subset of, correlate(s) of conspiracy beliefs. It is perfectly reasonable and expected that a young literature may move forward in such a piecemeal fashion as researchers strive to build a theoretical foundation for the subfield. However, such an erratic procession is not without consequential limitations. While we have learned a great deal about the correlates of conspiracy beliefs in a vacuum, we have little empirical foundation for understanding how those correlate work together. Indeed, we have only a tenuous grasp of who conspiracy theorists are.
In this article, we offer information about which factors related to conspiracy beliefs provide the most analytical leverage in correctly predicting individual conspiracy beliefs. Such information is useful for both identifying the relevant characteristics of conspiracy theorists more precisely, and in further developing our theories about the psychological antecedents of specific conspiracy beliefs (Wood, 2017). Ultimately, a firmer understanding of the characteristics of conspiracy theorists can help us understand what about the conspiratorial frame of mind gives rise to the negative effects of conspiracism, and possibly help combat such effects.
To be more specific, this study offers three important developments of recent work on the correlates of conspiracy beliefs. First, we decipher which correlates seem to analytically matter most when a substantial set of previously identified factors are accounted for. In doing this, we find that the most predictive correlates of nine specific and commonly employed conspiracy beliefs are conspiratorial thinking, political orientations, and paranormal beliefs, while measures of several psychological biases and sociodemographic characteristics offer little utility in correctly classifying conspiracy beliefs. Second, we identify the characteristics of specific conspiracy theories that seem to affect which correlates are most predictive of related beliefs. More specifically, we find that the previously identified correlates differentially affect different “types” of conspiracy theories—namely, those with and without partisan political content. Finally, we discuss our general ability to answer the question “who are conspiracy theorists?” and provide practical recommendations for scholars interested in explaining conspiracy theories and those who believe them.
Background
A conspiracy theory is a “proposed explanation of events that cites as a main causal factor a small group of persons (the conspirators) acting in secret for their own benefit, against the common good” (Uscinski, Klofstad, and Atkinson, 2016:2). A conspiracy belief, then, is a belief in a specific conspiracy theory. Perhaps the most obvious theoretical cause of specific conspiracy beliefs is “conspiratorial thinking,” a psychological state that is the amalgamation of “stable individual differences in the general tendency to engage with conspiracist explanations for events” (Brotherton, French, and Pickering, 2013:1). Conspiratorial thinking is a general tendency to view the world a certain way (Brotherton, 2015) rather than any specific trait, predisposition, or set of attitudes. A great deal of recent work on conspiratorial thinking has turned its attention away from specific conspiracy beliefs and toward the goal of identifying this mindset in individuals (e.g., Imhoff and Bruder, 2014; Lantian et al., 2016; Uscinski and Parent, 2014; Wood, 2017). Most of the unique measurement strategies utilized to identify conspiracy theorists ask survey respondents to what extent they agree with claims such as “I think that events which superficially seem to lack a connection are often the result of secret activities” (Bruder et al., 2013), or “Much of our lives are being controlled by plots hatched in secret places” (Uscinski and Parent, 2014).
Conceptually related to conspiratorial thinking are specific psychological biases that may cause—individually or cumulatively—one to view the world through the lens of conspiracism. Patternicity, the predisposition to delineate patterns from what are truly random events, is an obvious hallmark of conspiratorial thinking (Brotherton, 2015). Those individuals who are particularly susceptible to patternicity are more likely to “see” the connections between disparate events. Brotherton and French (2014, 2015) have also identified susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy and intentionality bias as characteristics of individuals with conspiracy beliefs. Indeed, conspiracy theorists are likely to believe in several conspiracy theories that are logically at odds with each other and ascribe intention to perceived actions that are truly accidental or coincidental in nature.
Political scientists focusing on the role of political identities and orientations have found that partisanship and ideological self‐identifications are significantly related to many American conspiracy theories. For instance, Hartman and Newmark (2012) and Pasek et al. (2015) identify partisanship as a key predictor of conspiracy beliefs about the birthplace of Barack Obama. Miller, Saunders, and Farhart (2016) find that left–right political orientations serve as the latent structure that underlies a host of American beliefs in conspiracy theories about climate change, the birthplace of Barack Obama, the 9/11 terror attacks, and electoral fraud. The effects of partisan and ideological orientations also appear to translate in nature, though not exact character, across political context. van Prooijen, Andre, and Pollet (2015) find politically extreme individuals—those who reside on the edges of scales of ideological orientations, regardless of political context—tend to be more conspiratorial than their moderate counterparts.
A host of other individual differences have also been identified as correlates of conspiracy beliefs. Authoritarianism, for example, has long been a fixture in the literature on conspiracy beliefs (Abalakina‐Paap et al., 1999; McHoskey, 1995). Since authoritarian individuals are more likely to blame others for their problems, they are also more likely to believe in conspiracy theories that tend to posit that some unknown force is guiding events. More recent work has also identified paranormal thinking—the tendency to believe in the role of supernatural forces in everyday life, and individuals' ability to engage such forces—as an important correlate of conspiracy beliefs (Darwin, Neave, and Homes, 2011; Oliver and Wood, 2014). Lastly, personality characteristics (Swami, Chamorro‐Premuzic, and Furnham, 2010), anomia (Goertzel, 1994), and self‐uncertainty and belongingness (van Prooijen, 2016) have been found to correlate with conspiratorial thinking.
Finally, some have asserted the role of nonpsychological characteristics, such as age, race, gender, socioeconomic status, and educational attainment, in promoting conspiratorial thinking. Much of this work comes from a more historical, sociological tradition that emphasized “fringe” status in society as a major cause of conspiratorial worldview (e.g., Hofstadter, 1964). Although we are more interested in the psychological correlates of conspiracy beliefs, we nevertheless consider whether sociodemographic characteristics affect conspiratorial thinking in addition to other psychological variables.
We do not purport to have included every known correlate of conspiracy beliefs in the above lists, but we do believe that our review of the literature conveys the simple point that there are a great many of such correlates. And, even though none of the correlates of conspiracy beliefs we have outlined above strikes us as unreasonable or improbable, we are left wondering which of these correlates actually matters for classifying conspiracy beliefs. Very little of the research outlined above considers simultaneously the effects of several of the identified constructs on conspiracy beliefs. Gaining some grasp on this question is important for two reasons. First, it will help us better understand which predispositions, orientations, and attitudes best characterize conspiracy theorists. An understanding of the characteristics of conspiracy theorists will aid us in deciphering the best candidates for causal first‐movers of conspiracy beliefs. This has implications for our theories of the psychological antecedents of conspiracy beliefs, and the measurement strategies we employ to capture and explain such beliefs. Second, this work will help us more fully answer perhaps the most illusive question faced by the literature: Who are conspiracy theorists?

Does Exposure to Gender Role Models Increase Women’s Political Ambition? It seems not.

Does Exposure to Gender Role Models Increase Women’s Political Ambition? A Field Experiment with Politicians. Florian Foos and Fabrizio Gilardi. Journal of Experimental Political Science, August 7 2019. https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2019.21

Abstract: There is a persistent gender gap in motivations to run for political office. While exposure to role models is widely believed to increase women’s political ambition, there is little field experimental evidence on whether exposure to female politicians in realistic settings can increase political ambition. We conducted a field experiment in which a sample of 612 female students was randomly assigned to receive emails inviting them to an event that included career workshops with female politicians, or no email. The treatment increased interest in the ongoing national election campaign, but, against expectations, did not have any positive effect on political ambition. Our results suggest that female politicians who discuss their experience bluntly, instead of following a motivational script, may fail to motivate other women to pursue a political career. These results highlight the need for more research into the type of events and messages that bring more women into politics.

We identify evolutionary advantages that may incentivize tolerance toward extra‐group individuals in humans & nonhuman primates, including enhanced benefits in the domains of transfer, mating, & food acquisition


The evolution of intergroup tolerance in nonhuman primates and humans. Anne C. Pisor, Martin Surbeck. Evolutionary Anthropology: Issues, News, and Reviews, August 6 2019. https://doi.org/10.1002/evan.21793

Abstract: Primate individuals use a variety of strategies in intergroup encounters, from aggression to tolerance; however, recent focus on the evolution of either warfare or peace has come at the cost of characterizing this variability. We identify evolutionary advantages that may incentivize tolerance toward extra‐group individuals in humans and nonhuman primates, including enhanced benefits in the domains of transfer, mating, and food acquisition. We highlight the role these factors play in the flexibility of gorilla, chimpanzee, bonobo, and human behavior. Given humans have an especially broad range of intergroup behavior, we explore how the human foraging ecology, especially large spatial and temporal fluctuations in resource availability, may have selected for a greater reliance on tolerant between‐community relationships—relationships reinforced by status acquisition and cultural institutions. We conclude by urging careful, theoretically motivated study of behavioral flexibility in intergroup encounters in humans and the nonhuman great apes.

1 INTRODUCTION

Attempting to explain the prevalence of intergroup aggression in primates, especially in humans (Homo sapiens sapiens), evolutionary anthropologists have focused extensively on intergroup contest and warfare. In response, other evolutionary anthropologists have focused extensively on peace systems in primates, especially in humans. Focusing on these two ends of the spectrum—war or peacefulness—has come at the cost of fully characterizing within‐species variation in individuals' behavioral strategies in intergroup encounters (e.g., Refs. 1-4; see also, Ref. 5: table 22‐1). Furthermore, both of these approaches emphasize selection pressures that favor or disfavor intergroup aggression; less researched are the selection pressures that, given disincentives for intergroup aggression, favor tolerant encounters and the prolongment of tolerant encounters in intergroup association.

In the present review, our goal is to call for explicit theorization about the individual‐level selection pressures that favored flexible behavior in intergroup encounters in humans and nonhuman primates, especially the often‐overlooked pressures that may favor tolerant encounters and association given disincentives for aggression. We review how tolerant behavior toward extra‐group conspecifics in specific domains—such as food access, mating, and reconnaissance before transfer—may have been favored by natural selection in nonhuman primates. In the course of this review, we pay special attention to the group‐living, nonhuman great apes, but not because these species are necessarily the best analogies for intergroup behavior in humans. We focus on these species for two reasons: first, due to our common ancestry, humans and the extant nonhuman great apes share a number of traits derived within the Primate order, suggesting that there is (at least some) insight to be gained by drawing comparisons between these species; and second, to highlight how little we still know about intergroup encounters in the nonhuman great apes, especially in gorillas and bonobos.

Given what has been observed of intergroup behavior in nonhuman primates, we assess whether consideration of the potential selective benefits favoring intergroup encounter and association in these species provides insight into human behavior. Our review of the literature suggests that the particularly high prevalence of intergroup tolerant encounter and association in humans may be derived, even within the great apes; we hypothesize that this high prevalence reflects human reliance on resources that vary extensively in their availability across space and time. Given that our field has invested much energy into studying the selection pressures favoring or disfavoring intergroup aggression, we conclude by urging evolutionary anthropologists to explicitly theorize about individual‐level selection pressures that may favor intergroup tolerant encounters, and even prolonged intergroup association, so that we can better understand the variation in intergroup behavior within and between species.


4 DISCUSSION

In evolutionary anthropology and in disciplines influenced by it, a common current assumption made by researchers is a “strong human universal toward parochial altruism”—in‐group favoritism at out‐group cost.86 Research focus on chimpanzees as a referential model for human behavior34 tends to promote this perspective. However, evidence suggests that individual behavior in intergroup encounters is actually quite flexible, both in humans (e.g., per the study from which the preceding quote was drawn86) and in the group‐living great apes generally. Disincentives for intergroup aggression have been thoroughly discussed by other reviews; however, these disincentives provide insight only into when selection could favor individual tolerance toward extra‐group members, but not why it does under these circumstances. Here, drawing on existing observations of nonhuman primates, we assembled potential fitness benefits that may favor intergroup tolerant encounter and association (Table 1). Though scientists know comparatively little about intergroup encounters in bonobos and gorillas relative to chimpanzees—a situation that should be remedied—the fitness benefits we identified seem to account for at least some of the observed variability in intergroup behavior in bonobos and gorillas.

Our review of the literature suggests that the benefits favoring intergroup tolerant encounter and association in nonhuman primates can account for some, but not all, of the flexibility of intergroup tolerance in humans. In both humans and nonhuman primates, mating and transfer, as facilitated by visitation, and opportunities for social learning are potential benefits to be gained from intergroup tolerant encounter and association. Likewise, across the Primate order, kinship and partner preferences can further amplify the benefits and minimize the costs of encounter. However, humans have a much higher prevalence of intergroup tolerant encounter and association than do nonhuman primates—at least, as observed to date. Evidence from anthropology and across the social sciences suggests that humans' reliance on resources with extensive spatial and temporal variability has necessitated flexible interest in between‐community relationships as a means of managing the risks of resource shortfalls and ensuring access to nonlocally available resources. When and where the benefits of between‐community resource access have been high, cultural institutions and social status have also enhanced and reinforced these benefits. This is not to say that humans do not engage in intergroup aggression—the ethnographic, archaeological, and contemporary records provide ample evidence of parochialism and warfare—but rather that human intergroup behavior can be both more tolerant and more aggressive than what we have observed in our closest relatives and that this flexibility in intergroup behavior is functional.

We advance the hypotheses outlined in this review for testing by the evolutionary anthropological community. Similar ideas with respect to the importance of between‐community resource access have been outlined by functionalist anthropologists, archaeologists, and human behavioral ecologists previously—although usually without treatment of why between‐community resource access is of particular importance in humans. We hope that by amalgamating these perspectives and building upon them, the present paper inspires newfound interest in the flexibility of human and nonhuman great ape intergroup behavior, moving our discipline beyond its current focus on parochialism. In addition to our larger hypothesis with respect to the human foraging ecology, we wish to highlight other related questions to be addressed by future work. (1) The higher the frequency of shortfalls, the more likely that individuals will recall these shortfalls (whether via their own memories or even via oral traditions) and maintain between‐community relationships accordingly50, 51—but how frequent must they be? Is once every several generations enough? (2) Will the connections we drew between status acquisition, cultural institutions, and the relative importance of between‐community resource access be supported by additional data? To date, the connection between status and between‐community relationships has been more theoretical than empirical. (3) Which poses stronger selection pressure in humans: benefits gained via intergroup tolerant encounters and association in the currency of between‐community resource access, or the cost of mortality risk from aggression and warfare,37 potentially reduced by intergroup tolerant encounters and association?

To answer the above questions and improve the accuracy of our characterizations of sociality in both humans and nonhuman great apes, researchers will need to collect targeted data assessing the predictors of intergroup behavior. For field researchers studying humans, we urge caution with respect to reliance on observational data and “complete” social networks. Asking participants about their social strategies for mitigating shortfalls,49 their preferences for same‐community vs between‐community relationships,41, 42 and their extra‐community ties85 may provide a more accurate picture of the flexibility of human sociality. Furthermore, the dedication of increased research effort to intergroup encounters and association in gorillas and bonobos, as well as habituation of neighboring groups, will improve our understanding of sociality in the group‐living nonhuman great apes.

In the present review, we opted not to unpack the nature of human “groups” nor human group psychology. Humans are adept at cognizing groups of various kinds—from groups formed in experimental contexts to interest‐based groups to ethnic or religious groups—and at recognizing their boundaries. A number of the papers and book chapters we reviewed here discuss potential derived functions of group living in humans (see Refs. 53, 54, 56, 69). Our larger point is that human reliance on resources that vary in their spatial and temporal availability often necessitates relationships spanning distance; in general, the group‐living great apes evidence flexible interest in intergroup encounters and association (Box 1), and it is likely that this flexible interest became even more important in the human lineage (Section 3.2). While relationships spanning distance sometimes span ethnolinguistic boundaries, for example, or religious boundaries, they do not necessarily. As such, questions of the proliferation of different types of human groups, and how ethnic groups may have been built on the scaffolding of social relationships through which nonlocal resources could be accessed (e.g.,83), we leave to other papers.

Given the lack of attention the benefits of intergroup tolerant encounter and association have received in evolutionary anthropology, the present review reflects initial theorizing about these incentives; as such, we have not explored the roles of constraints, including phylogeny and life history constraints, nor the affordances of a comparative approach with non‐primate species. Phylogeny and life history constraints likely affect the prevalence and flexibility of intergroup tolerance in different species of primates. For example, the relationship between intergroup tolerance and the ecological and social factors discussed here may partially reflect a third variable, phylogenetic signal. Whether such constraints explain existing observational data is a question to be answered by future work. Furthermore, we chose not to pursue a comparative approach with non‐primate species. Though the high incentives for intergroup tolerant encounter and association observed in humans may have better analogies among non‐primate vertebrates or even insects,2 our goal here was to explore intergroup tolerance in humans in the context of nonhuman primates rather than to find the closest‐match analogy for human behavior.

5 CONCLUSION
Intergroup behavior in primates is flexible, and the prevalence of intergroup tolerant encounters and association varies across species. To be sure, incentives for aggression vary, as discussed extensively in existing work; however, when incentives for aggression are low or absent, why would natural selection favor tolerant behavior toward extra‐group members—or even increased rates of intergroup tolerant encounter and association? Drawing inferences from the existing primatological literature, we highlighted benefits favoring intergroup tolerant encounter and association in the Primate order, including in group‐living nonhuman apes and humans, such as transfer, mating, and food acquisition. Humans are unique among primates in our high prevalence of intergroup tolerance, however, and data from across the social sciences suggest the relevance of the human foraging ecology—especially the spatial and temporal availability of resources on which we depend—in explaining the human pattern. Future research should work to better document the variability in intergroup behavior in the group‐living apes, especially in gorillas, bonobos, and humans, using methods of data collection designed specifically for this endeavor.