A sales tax is better at promoting healthy diets than the fat tax (a tax on "unhealthy" food) and the thin subsidy (a subsidy on "healthy" food)

A sales tax is better at promoting healthy diets than the fat tax and the thin subsidy. Zarko Kalamov. Health Economics, 2020;1–14, DOI: 10.1002/hec.3987

Abstract: We analyze how a sales tax levied on all food products impacts the consumption of healthy food, unhealthy food, and obesity. The sales tax can stimulate the consumption of healthy meals by lowering the time costs of food preparation. Moreover, the sales tax lowers obesity under more general conditions than a tax on unhealthy food (fat tax) and a subsidy on healthy food (thin subsidy). We calibrate the model using recent consumption and time use data from the US. The thin subsidy is counterproductive and increases weight. While both the sales tax and the fat tax mitigate obesity, the former imposes a lower excess burden on consumers.

Keywords: fat tax, obesity, sales tax, thin subsidy
JEL: D11; I12; I18; H31; H51


1  INTRODUCTION
Many countries tax unhealthy foods to address the obesity epidemic: Chile, France, Ireland, Mexico, and the UK among others tax sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), Finland taxes sweets and non-alcoholic beverages, while Hungary taxes food products with health risks. However, these policies may be ineffective or even counterproductive in reducing obesity, as consumers may substitute to untaxed unhealthy food alternatives (Schroeter, Lusk, & Tyner, 2008). To minimize this problem, governments can broaden the tax base (Finkelstein, Zhen, Nonnemaker, & Todd, 2010; Harding & Lovenheim, 2017; Miao, Beghin, & Jensen, 2013). Therefore, nutrient taxes (such as a sugar tax or a fat tax) are more effective than product taxes (such as a tax on SSBs). This article is the first to propose a sales tax on all food products as an instrument that promotes healthy diets. A sales tax may stimulate healthy consumption by lowering the opportunity cost of cooking time. Moreover, a sales tax imposes a low excess burden on consumers, measured both per kcal reduction in consumption and per dollar of tax revenues. We model a representative consumer in a model akin to that of Yaniv, Rosin, and Tobol (2009) and take explicitly into account the higher opportunity cost in terms of time of healthy consumption. The individual chooses between consumption of healthy and unhealthy food and has a fixed out-of-work time constraint, which she can spend on cooking meals and leisure. The individual consumes unhealthy meals away-from-home (defined as food prepared away-from-home), and their preparation is not time-consuming. Healthy food is produced at home using both time and ingredients.

We show that the sales tax lowers the opportunity cost of time in food preparation and may thus stimulate healthy consumption. If the elasticity of substitution between healthy and unhealthy food is sufficiently high, the sales tax exerts a positive effect on the demand for healthy meals. A tax on unhealthy foods (called for simplicity a fat tax) and a subsidy to healthy consumption (called a thin subsidy) have qualitatively similar effects on the demand for healthy and unhealthy food. Moreover, we show that the policy, which reduces obesity under the least restrictive conditions, is a positive sales tax in the absence of a fat tax and a thin subsidy.
Our model builds on the empirical observation that home-cooked meals are healthier than away-from-home food. Compared to the consumption of away-from-home meals, intake of home-cooked food is associated with higher intake of fiber, iron, and calcium; lower intake of fat, sodium, and cholesterol; lower calorie density (Guthrie, Lin, & Frazao, 2002; Lin & Frazao, 1997; Lin & Frazao, 1999) and lower weight (Chou, Grossman, & Saffer, 2004; French, Harnack, & Jeffery, 2000). Furthermore, a higher frequency of food preparation raises the consumption of fruits and vegetables and lowers the intake of fat, SSBs and fast-food (Larson, Perry, Story, & Neumark-Sztainer, 2006; Laska, Larson, Neumark-Sztainer, & Story, 2012; McLaughlin, Tarasuk, & Kreiger, 2003; Monsivais, Aggarwal, & Drewnowski, 2014; Wolfson & Bleich, 2015b). The positive dietary impact of frequent cooking occurs irrespectively of the weight-loss intentions of individuals (Wolfson & Bleich, 2015a). Kolodinsky and Goldstein (2011) estimate that ten additional minutes of cooking time lower BMI by 0.13 points. Zick, Stevens, and Bryant (2011) find that ten minutes food preparation lower the BMI of women by 0.17 points and do not affect the BMI of men, who, however, are a small share of the meal preparers in their data.

In Section 4, we calibrate the model according to recent U.S. consumption and time allocation data. We estimate the home production function, the dietary characteristics of at-home- and away-from-home-food and the time allocation decisions such that they match data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2010 (CDC, 2010) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2010 (BLS, 2010). The simulated model makes predictions regarding the own- and cross-price elasticities of healthy and unhealthy food that match existing empirical data on these elasticities.

We find in the benchmark case of our simulation that a 10% sales tax lowers away-from-home consumption of men and women by 7.9% and 4.8%, respectively. On the other hand, men's at-home consumption declines by just 0.01% and that of women rises by 0.01%. Hence, the intake of at-home food remains almost unaffected. As a result, men lose 4% of their weight and women 1.8%. On the other hand, a 10% fat tax induces a stronger substitution of at-home for away-from-home consumption. Consequently, it leads to a lower weight decrease. Moreover, the excess burden of the sales tax, measured using the compensating variation, is lower than that of the fat tax, irrespective of whether we calculate the excess burden as the welfare loss per dollar of tax revenues or per reduction in calorie intake. Furthermore, the sales tax's excess burden is also small in absolute value. It equals around 1 − 1.7 cents per dollar of tax revenues and 2 − 2.9 cents per 100 kcal reduction in consumption. Lastly, an introduction of a thin subsidy stimulates strong substitution of healthy for unhealthy food, such that weight slightly increases following the subsidy's implementation. The article from Yaniv et al. (2009) is most related to our paper. They analyze the fat tax and thin subsidy under consideration of the time costs of home-food preparation. Neither policy instrument is unambiguously obesity-reducing because of indeterminate substitution effects on away-from-home food consumption and physical activity.

Bishai (2015) considers the welfare implications of a tax plus subsidy system that raises (lowers) the price of unhealthy (healthy) nutrients but leaves the final product prices unchanged. He shows that such a system may improve welfare.

There is strong empirical evidence that a fat tax does not necessarily reduce weight, because of a possible switch to untaxed alternatives (Chouinard, Davis, LaFrance, & Perloff, 2007; Fletcher, Frisvold, & Tefft, 2010b; Schroeter et al., 2008; Zhen, Finkelstein, Nonnemaker, Karns, & Todd, 2014). Schroeter et al. (2008) estimate that a tax on food-away-from-home and a subsidy on fruit and vegetables may increase obesity. Zhen et al. (2014) show that a tax on SSBs can reduce their consumption at the cost of higher intake of fat and sodium. Furthermore, Fletcher, Frisvold, and Tefft (2010a), Fletcher et al. (2010b) find empirical support that such taxes have a significant effect on SSB consumption, but an insignificant effect on weight. Jeffery, French, Raether, and Baxter (1994) and French et al. (1997) find a significant short-term impact of subsidizing fruits and salads at university and high school cafeteria, which vanishes after the removal of the subsidy. [...]


5 CONCLUSIONS

This paper has compared three different policy instruments, which can be used to address the problem of rising obesity levels: a fat tax (levied on food-away-from-home), a thin subsidy (levied on groceries that enter home food preparation) and a sales tax on all food items. First, we show that a sales tax may stimulate time-intensive healthy consumption by lowering the opportunity cost of time spent on food preparation. Therefore, it may exert a positive effect on the demand for healthy meals. If healthy and unhealthy meals are perfect substitutes, then all three policy instruments have the same qualitative impact on the consumer's demand: they reduce the consumption of unhealthy meals and raise the consumption of healthy food. Second, the policy which reduces obesity under the most general conditions is a sales tax in the absence of the fat tax and the thin subsidy.

A calibration of the model shows that the sales tax mitigates obesity at the lowest welfare cost for consumers. Furthermore, the deadweight cost of the sales tax is small is absolute value. It imposes an excess burden of less than 2 cents per dollar of tax revenues and 3 cents per 100 kcal reduction in the calorie-intake.

Our results open ample opportunities for future research. While this article extends the model of Yaniv et al. (2009) to include a general elasticity of substitution between food at-home and away-from-home and the possibility of non-food purchases, we do not consider the choice of physical exercise. Including it may produce further interesting results on the effects of a sales tax.

Additionally, this article hightlights the role of the price of time in consumption choices. It explains the higher time spent cooking by women through lower opportunity cost of leisure. Gender differences in the price of time are likely caused by the gender wage gap, as documented by Zick et al. (2011). These authors use wage regressions from the March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) and find the opportunity cost of time for men and women to be 20.57 $∕hour and 16.84 $∕hour, respectively. The gender wage gap is also likely to contribute to unequal distribution of cooking time in non single-adult households. Moreover, closing of the gap is likely to affect this distribution. Hence, more research is necessary to analyze how different opportunity costs of time and the elimination of these differences may affect household production.

Moreover, future work should compare the sales tax to nutrient-specific taxes such as a tax on sugar or fat content. The sales tax may be more efficient in promoting healthy diets as it targets several unhealthy nutrients at once by lowering away-from-home consumption. Furthermore, a comparison to the tax plus subsidy system of Bishai (2015) along the same lines is necessary.

This paper has contributed to the literature by emphasizing the time costs of healthy consumption and showing their importance for the optimal policy design. Future research should focus on analyzing other policies that lower the opportunity cost of home food preparation or provide other incentives for cooking. Two public health programs that have already been implemented in the US are the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Healthy Incentives Pilot which provides financial incentives for the purchase of fruits and vegetables and the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Farmer's Market Nutrition program which issues coupons to participants to buy foods from farmers (Smith, Ng, & Popkin, 2013). An evaluation of the effects of these programs on the participants' cooking habits is an important research agenda.

Taxing all food products may be regressive, as poor households spend a larger proportion of their income on food relative to rich households. As a result, an important agenda for future research is to quantify this effect and analyze how governments should spend the tax receipts, such that the tax becomes less regressive. Additionally, it is well-known that a fat tax is also regressive (see, e.g., Chouinard et al. (2007)). Therefore, future work should compare the regressivity of a fat tax to that of a sales tax.

Liberian experiment: After one academic year, students in outsourced schools scored 0.18 σ higher in English and mathematics

Outsourcing Education: Experimental Evidence from Liberia. Mauricio Romero, Justin Sandefur, and Wayne Aaron Sandholtz. American Economic Review. Feb 2020, Vol. 110, No. 2: Pages 364-400. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20181478

Abstract: In 2016, the Liberian government delegated management of 93 randomly selected public schools to private providers. Providers received US$50 per pupil, on top of US$50 per pupil annual expenditure in control schools. After one academic year, students in outsourced schools scored 0.18 σ higher in English and mathematics. We do not find heterogeneity in learning gains or enrollment by student characteristics, but there is significant heterogeneity across providers. While outsourcing appears to be a cost-effective way to use new resources to improve test scores, some providers engaged in unforeseen and potentially harmful behavior, complicating any assessment of welfare gains. (JEL H41, I21, I28, O15)

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Tyler Cowen says (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/the-private-school-experiment-in-liberia.html):

[...] The gains are real, and not the result of student selection.  That said costs are higher with the private contracting.  Better partner selection would have improved the program greatly, though the authors note that some of the most promising partners ex ante ended up being the biggest troublemakers ex post.  Some of the schools, for instance, allowed a possibly unacceptably degree of sexual abuse of the students.  There is perhaps potential for dynamic reoptimization of permissible partners to yield very real gains, though this may or may not be supported by the available political economy incentives.

The authors suggest, by the way, that outsourcing or contracting out to the private sector often does better when quality is relatively simple, such as with water services, food distribution, and simple forms of primary health care, such as immunization.  In their view, for advanced health care and prisons, contracting is less effective, due to the vaguer nature of product quality.

Unwantedness across birth order explains a substantial part of the documented birth order effects in education & employment; we find no birth order effects in families who have more control over their fertility

Birth order and unwanted fertility. Wanchuan Lin, Juan Pantano, Shuqiao Sun. Journal of Population Economics, April 2020, Volume 33, Issue 2, pp 413–440. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-019-00747-4

Abstract: An extensive literature documents the effects of birth order on various individual outcomes, with later-born children faring worse than their siblings. However, the potential mechanisms behind these effects remain poorly understood. This paper leverages US data on pregnancy intention to study the role of unwanted fertility in the observed birth order patterns. We document that children higher in the birth order are much more likely to be unwanted, in the sense that they were conceived at a time when the family was not planning to have additional children. Being an unwanted child is associated with negative life cycle outcomes as it implies a disruption in parental plans for optimal human capital investment. We show that the increasing prevalence of unwantedness across birth order explains a substantial part of the documented birth order effects in education and employment. Consistent with this mechanism, we document no birth order effects in families who have more control over their own fertility.

Keywords: Birth order Unwanted births Fertility intentions
JEL Classification: J13 J22 J24

The growth of behavioural complexity as well as the ex-vivo accumulation of human behaviour (non-genetically inherited behaviourome), cannot be explained by genetic/epigenetic mechanisms of inheritance

Mechanisms of a near-orthogonal ultra-fast evolution of human behaviour as a source of culture development. Christian P. Müller. Behavioural Brain Research, February 2 2020, 112521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbr.2020.112521

Highlights
• A new mechanism for the recent time evolution of human behaviour is proposed
• Non-genetic inheritance (NGI) and accumulation of behaviour is crucial for culture
• The human behaviourome concept is introduced
• Mechanisms of a near-orthogonal and ultra-fast NGI of the behaviourome are suggested
• Behaviourome mutations can be target-directed
• Ex-vivo storage and -accumulation of the behaviourome are pivotal for culture

Abstract: Current human culture is characterized by an increasing rate of accumulating potential and actually performed behaviours. The growth of behavioural complexity as well as the ex-vivo accumulation of human behaviour, here identified as the non-genetically inherited (NGI) behaviourome, cannot be explained by genetic/epigenetic mechanisms of inheritance. As human beings derive their socio-cultural identity predominantly from their behaviourome, mechanisms of heritability should predominantly consider inheritance and accumulation of the NGI behaviourome. Here we propose key mechanisms of a near-orthogonal and ultra-fast evolution of the NGI human behaviourome that provide a foundation not only of unique human culture development, but also of its recent acceleration. Thereby, the evolution of the human NGI behaviourome underlies similar features as genetically based evolution. However, specific mechanisms of mutation and selection work largely independent (orthogonal) from genetic/epigenetic mechanisms. We suggest a mechanism of how adaptive changes (mutations) in the NGI behaviourome work target-directed and how selection works on an ultra-fast time scale. Selection results are mostly not fatal for the individual which allows for a much increased mutation rate. For crucial accumulation of the NGI behaviourome, ex-vivo storage and retrieval systems of virtually unlimited capacity are described. We discuss the great potential of the human NGI behaviourome in respect of speculative human super-reproduction and homosexual reproduction success, as well as a possible unique human way to avoid reproduction failure in childlessness. Altogether, this model of human behavioural reproduction and accumulation of behaviour may provide a base for better understanding and prediction of uniquely human cultural development.

Keywords: behaviouromebehavioural accumulationcultural evolutionex-vivo storagenear-orthogonal evolutionnon-genetic inheritancereplication failure, super-reproductiontargeted mutationultra-fast selection

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9. Childless and homosexual reproduction success

It is speculated that a considerable part of the human population which appears threatened by reproduction failure are childless and homosexual man and women, which were denied a direct genetic reproduction. In non-human animals, the lack of genetically-related offspring and homosexuality leads to a general reproduction failure which may, however, be partly overcome by supporting kin and their offspring [182]. In humans, the individual NGI behaviourome constitutes a large part of the personal identity. This can be passed on in a gradual way, from almost complete to small traces of the individual NGI behaviourome. The individual NGI behaviourome may very well be inherited in small or even large proportions by NGI mechanisms, may it be to foster children or even children not being in any legal care responsibility. By that way, also childless and/or homosexual human individuals may reproduce their individual behavioural phenotype to a considerable extent. The degree of this reproduction may even be so large that genetically unrelated foster children are seen as a fully accepted biological offspring [242]. For example, many cuckoo children are not recognized by their fathers as not-genetically related, especially when the inherited paternal NGI behaviourome is copied to a significant degree [17].

Behavioural teaching in humans is often outsourced from the pedigree, e.g. in the kinder garden, in schools, or universities. There, teachers not only teach the macro social environment shared part of the NGI behaviourome (e.g. common knowledge and social behaviour), but also to some extent their own individual NGI behaviourome. As such, pupils may inherit always some parts of their teacher’s individual NGI behaviourome. And depending on the teacher, this can be quite large and influential for the non-kin recipients. Based on the above described proximal mechanisms of NGI, this may be one reason why teachers often prefer and treat in a more affectionate and supportive way those pupils that show a strong similarity in their individual behaviourome to the own one. When a non-kin relationship between teacher and pupil is likely or known, similarity in the NGI behavioural phenotype is preferred to similarity in the physical phenotype which would otherwise serve as a proxy indicator of genetic overlap. This may go as far as considering non-kin pupils like a “son in mind” (and behaviour), although being well aware that they are non-kin.

Even super-reproduction of the NGI behaviourome appears possible for childless and/or homosexual individuals by whom the behaviourome is transmitted to a very large population of recipients. This may or may not include homosexuality and related behaviours. Famous artists may serve here as outstanding examples for behavioural reproduction, such as e.g. Leonardo da Vinci or Oscar Wilde. Their live records (as behavioural instructions) and achievements as artists (as successful results of their NGI behaviourome) are still serving as blue prints for young artist’s attitudes and working modes. They are often seen as brilliant examples of their profession.

An as yet unanswered question in human evolution has been why do homosexuals not die out when their genome is not inherited [182]? A potential new answer to this question may be provided by NGI of the behaviourome. Homosexual partner preference and associated behavioural patterns may readily be assumed to be part of the NGI behaviourome, which is not inherited from genetic parents. At least, no genetic source for this behaviour has been discovered; neither as a preserved genetic base, nor in the shape of de novo genetic mutations [207]. Nevertheless, homosexual behaviour can be copied from non-kin and from ex-vivo sources (e.g. written records), or may be established as a de novo behaviour. Likewise, it may be passed on effectively to next generation non-kin, and become ex-vivo stored. But how is it providing any fitness benefit for those who copy and express it? The advantage may be in saving on resources that heterosexual individuals have to spend on genetic reproduction. This may set capacity free to innovate new NGI behaviours and to develop more sophisticated NGI behaviouromes that can contribute more than average to the general population NGI behaviourome pool and, thus, to culture. And as long as cultural advancement, i.e. the qualitative or quantitative expansion of the NGI behaviourome, is rewarded in a human society and enhances chances of survival for the individual, this behavioural trait may remain in the NGI behavioural pool. Nonetheless, it should be noted that certain societies do actively punish the behavioural trait of homosexuality and its in-vivo and ex-vivo inheritance and replication. Gay people are threatened by death penalty and books/movies about this behavioural phenotype are prohibited and prosecuted. The relative persistence of this behaviour may arise from the delayed nature of the cultural benefit. While the perceived threat of genetic replication failure is immediately perceived by a group, the potential benefits in cultural advancement are delayed. As such, the behavioural trait of homosexuality is submitted to a reward discounting in a group/society, which can yield opposite outcomes depending on how immediate vs. delayed reward are valued. If the immediate risk of replication failure is valued higher, the behavioural trait may become supressed, i.e. actively punished by society. If the delayed reward is valued higher, homosexuality may become accepted and even actively rewarded.

[...]

11. Empirical testing of the proposed mechanisms of a near-orthogonal ultra-fast evolution of human behaviour in culture development

Here, we described a mechanism of human NGI behaviourome evolution that was characterized as near-orthogonal and ultra-fast acting compared to genetic/epigenetic based evolution and claimed it to be a major source of present day human culture. As this is currently only a speculative account, all components of this claim would need empirical testing and the opportunity of falsification. This may be done by addressing each feature separately.

The “near-orthogonal” claim can be falsified when evidence shows that the human NGI behaviourome has a predominant genetic/epigenetic base that essentially displays the same temporal dynamic change as the human behavioural phenotype. For that, it would be an important research goal to empirically classify the full human NGI behaviourome in all its current complexity and to empirically monitor its changes closely from now on. From the starting point of a categorized present day human NGI behaviourome, one should estimate backwards its dynamic change over the last five thousand years. This may be paralleled by measurements of the human genome/epigenome development backward and forward. Behavioural and genetic/epigenetic data may then allow testing of whether and to what extent the dynamic development of the human behaviourome over that time is best described by a process near-orthogonal and, thus, largely independent from genetic/epigenetic evolution. Likewise the “ultra-fast” nature can be tested by comparing time scales and the degree of behaviourome change. Time scales for alterations of the human genome/epigenome that are known to have changed human behaviour and the dynamic of behavioural changes for which no genetic base can be identified, may be compared in the relevant 5000 years.

A proposed unique characteristic of the evolution of the human NGI behaviourome is its capability for targeted mutations of behaviour, e.g. during puberty. Thereby, the proposed Lamarckian mechanism may be experimentally tested in longitudinal studies where single parental behaviours may be artificially introduced that would be mildly maladaptive for the offspring, and trans-generational mutation rate is measured together with rate and quality of newly invented behaviours that can replace the abandoned/non-replicated ones. However, when ethical concerns should limit this experimental approach, also quasi-experimental post hoc analysis of behavioural mutations during puberty would provide some clues.

If the claim that the presented mechanism is a major driving force for human culture, it would be critical to test for an accumulation of the NGI behaviourome, i.e. the sheer number of human behaviours should increase in the relevant time span, which should not be paralleled by an increase in behaviourally relevant genes or epigenetic modifications.

12. Summary and outlook

If a biological, psychological or cultural theory of evolution wishes to explain development and current diversity of life, it also has to capture the present appearance of human beings. It has to provide a reasonable account of its radical transformation in the last few thousand years. Here we tried to identify and characterize mechanisms of a near-orthogonal and ultra-fast evolution of human behaviour which serve as an essential prerequisite for human cultural development in the last 5.000 years of human history. In that they are not meant to replace a genetic/epigenetic based evolution, but to largely expand them by mechanisms which allow to better explain many features of human culture that cannot be readily captured by genetic evolution. The Darwinian account of evolution comprises all living beings on earth, may they express behaviour or not. Human behavioural evolution theory, in contrast, captures only a relatively small aspect of biology, the NGI component of the human behaviourome. Nevertheless, this is the one that has submitted the surface of earth to probably the most profound changes induced by living species ever recorded in the history of life on earth, with significant effects on virtually all other species and on inanimate nature. Among those changes is what we consider as human culture, a vast array of NGI behaviours that are no longer genetically coded, but inherited, externally stored, spread and accumulated. In that the present account attempts to provide an explanatory scheme of how distinct genetically inherited features gave rise to human culture.

The "diversity equity and inclusion statement" required of anyone hired by the University of California: Only those statements scoring high enough are passed on for scholarly review

Wokeademia. John Cochrane. Thursday, January 30, 2020. https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/01/wokeademia.html

I'm working on an economic view of political polarization. One aspect of that project is the extent to which many institutions in our society have become politicized. Today's post is one little data point in that larger story. It tells a little story of how to politicize an institution and silence dissenters.

Jerry Coyne reports on the "diversity equity and inclusion statement" required of anyone hired by the University of California, or desiring a raise or promotion. This is a required statement each candidate must write "Demonstrating Interest in and Ability to Advance Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion." It's not about whether you are "diverse," meaning belonging to a racial, gender, or sexual-preference group the University wishes to hire. It is a statement, as it says, of your active participation in a  political movement.

Jerry's news in this post is that the statements are now being scored numerically, and only the files of those scoring high enough are passed on for scholarly review. 

[...]

The university not only requires the statements, but gives

these statements precedence in the hiring process, so that if your statement doesn’t exceed a minimum numerical cutoff for promoting diversity, increasing it in your past, and promulgating it in the future should you be hired, your candidacy is terminated

[...]

Jerry links to the UC Rubric to assess candidate contributions to diversity equity and inclusion. It's lovely that they are so secure they don't think they have to hide this sort of thing.

 [Impressive, read it all: https://ofew.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/rubric_to_assess_candidate_contributions_to_diversity_equity_and_inclusion.pdf]


Much more details, links at the original post.

When facing others who hold beliefs different from our own, we do not find these encounters disturbing because of the different beliefs per se, but because we are convinced that others hold false beliefs

The Othello Effect: People are more disturbed by others' wrong beliefs than by different beliefs. Andras Molnar, George Loewenstein. Carnegie Mellon University, PA, January 2020. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338828490

Abstract: We propose an alternative account to the theory of belief homophily--that people have an intrinsic distaste for encountering differences in beliefs. We argue that when people face others who hold beliefs different from their own, they do not find these encounters disturbing because others hold different beliefs per se, but because they are convinced that others hold false beliefs. In three preregistered studies (N = 1408) featuring self-recalled personal experiences and vignette scenarios, we demonstrate that participants are more disturbed when others hold false beliefs, compared to cases in which others' beliefs are different, even when participants' objective knowledge about the validity of beliefs is held constant. This effect is robust across contexts and types of social interactions, and is present among all ages and both sexes. We also show that higher confidence that others hold wrong beliefs, but not different beliefs, evokes stronger negative emotions.

How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’ degree of conformity

Conformity and Individuals’ Response to Information About Aggregate Turnout. André Blais, Rafael Hortala-Vallve. Political Behavior, February 1 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-020-09595-5

Abstract: How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’ degree of conformity. We argue that in addition to the classic calculus of voting, conformist voters have an added incentive to ‘follow the pack’ and vote when turnout is high while abstain when turnout is low. We conduct two separate experiments, the first a survey experiment with a representative sample of the UK population and the second a lab experiment in Canada. Both studies confirm our hypothesis. These findings highlight the importance of taking individuals’ level of conformity into account when explaining their decision to vote or abstain.

Keywords: Conformity Turnout Survey experiment Lab experiment

Conclusion

Our research highlights the importance of including social conformity in the study of political phenomena. Recent research in political psychology has focused on the Big Five personality traits (see especially Mondak et al. 2010) but our study suggests that we should go beyond these personality traits. Politics is very much about collective decision-making, so there is an underlying tension between the desire for personal autonomy and the need for social norms that are respected and followed by everyone in the community. Citizens strike a different balance between these two considerations, and this is bound to shape their behavior.

We have combined a survey experiment conducted in Britain and a lab experiment performed in Canada to test our hypothesis. Both studies produced remarkably similar findings: in both instances, people who score higher on the social conformity scale are more prone to vote (abstain) when they know that most other people vote (abstain) while those who score low on the conformity scale have exactly the opposite reaction. If a predicted high turnout makes conformists more inclined to vote and if there are many conformists in the electorate, then a relatively high turnout would be an equilibrium.

The implications of our study hinge in good part of the distribution of individuals across the conformity scale in a given society at a given point in time. To the best of our knowledge there are no time-series or cross-section data about the distribution of conformity across societies or over time. The data that we have collected in Britain (see Fig. A1 in Online Appendix A1) suggest a relatively normal distribution, with the mean (7.52 on a 0 to 17 scale) indicating a slight majority of non-conformists. The point remains that, at least in our representative poll of British society, there are many people with conformist leanings.

We therefore end with a call for more attention to be paid to an individual’s social conformity. A huge literature exists in social psychology about the role of conformity, yet little research has been devoted to its impact in political life. Our study suggests that it is a crucial variable in the decision to vote or abstain. There are good reasons to believe that it shapes other political phenomena such as the decision to participate in demonstrations or to engage in strategic or bandwagon voting. It makes sense to assume that many people pay attention to information about what others in the community are likely to do when deciding whether to vote or abstain. Political scientists need to integrate such considerations into their models and analyses.

Our study also raises important questions about the relationship between social conformity and other factors that may affect voter turnout. One such question pertains to the relationship between social conformity and sense of civic duty. Are conformists more prone to believe that they have a moral obligation to vote? Are both attitudes shaped by personality traits? Another set of questions is about the relationship between social conformity and social pressure. We would expect conformists to pay attention to social pressure. But what kind of social pressure? In this study, we have examined how conformists react to information about aggregate turnout. But what happens when conformists are exposed to conflicting information, if/when for instance they learn that turnout in the country is going to be high but that most friends/relatives are going to abstain? These are big questions about which we have no clear answer.

Macaques in the wild cooperating for copulation: Males actively shared the mating opportunities, i.e., a male copulated with a female, while his ally waited his turn and guarded them

Cooperation for copulation: a novel ecological mechanism underlying the evolution of coalition for sharing mating opportunities. Aru Toyoda, Tamaki Maruhashi, Suchinda Malaivijitnond, Hiroki Koda, Yasuo Ihara. bioRxiv, January 31, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.927772

Abstract: Cooperation, or the act of benefiting others at the cost of the benefactor's fitness, has been a central issue in evolutionary theory. Non-human animals sometimes show coalitions or male-male cooperation to confront a male rival and challenge the rank hierarchy. Here we observed novel types of coalitions in wild stump-tailed macaques; multiple males actively shared the mating opportunities, i.e., a male copulated with a female, while his ally waited his turn and guarded them. Our mathematical simulations revealed that lack of estrous signs, as well as large numbers of males in a group, possibly enhance facultative sharing of females. This is the first demonstration of the sharing of females in non-human primates, and shed light on the evolutionary theory of cooperation.

DISCUSSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first mammalian observation of collaborative
mate guarding by males, followed by facultative sharing of mating opportunities. Males in other
species, such as chimpanzees, olive baboons, and lions, also collaborate to guard females against
other males. The "cooperative mate guarding by coalition males" in these species appear to be
similar to those in the stump-tailed macaque; however, they fundamentally differ in social
relationships between/among coalition allies or non-allies. The stump-tailed macaque forms
multi-male multi-female societies, which includes a large number of males in the group, among
which only certain individuals tolerate sexual competition and show exclusive attitude toward
others. Male allies in a coalition exclude rivals and then share the mating opportunities with each
other. Thus, coalitions of stump-tailed macaques act as dominant males’ strategy for overcoming
reproductive competition within a group, by sharing the mating opportunities, as well as by
excluding other rivals. In the case of lions, a pride is the unit of a group, which mainly consists
of females and only few males, who collectively defend the females from other invasive males.
This is similar to coalitions of stump-tailed macaques, although alpha (the highest ranking) males
mostly monopolize the mating opportunities, whereas subordinate allies may either have no
access to the females or are allowed limited number of copulations, albeit not through active
sharing. Similarly, olive baboons are a well-known species forming male-male “coalition for
reproduction”, but differ from the stump-tailed macaques regarding the formation of coalitions.
The subordinate baboons form a coalition to jointly attack the dominant male, thereby increasing
their future access to females, while not showing any active sharing of copulations. The
observations made with one chimpanzee group might be comparable to our observations
regarding the stump-tailed macaque, where active sharing copulation (a female copulated with 8
males within a short period) was observed [29]. However, these were considered exceptions only
in the Ngogo population, which are considerably larger than the other populations [see section of
‘Contrasts with other chimpanzee communities’ in 29].
In stark contrast, stump-tailed macaques showed active sharing of mating opportunities
that they jointly obtain among the male allies. In this novel type of coalition, the alpha male
appeared to pay a reproductive cost by giving mating opportunities away to benefit his allies, and
the subordinate males in return repay in terms collaborative work efforts, as a result of which
they gain reproductive advantage as a team. Furthermore, the cooperation among three males is
another novel feature. Generally, coalition formation has been observed in the context of
aggression, characterized by triadic relations, such as the attacker, attack recipient, and supporter.
In the cognitive aspect, coalition formation may require higher abilities of social cognition,
termed "triadic awareness" [30–33], where the individual must recognize not only the dyadic
relationship between two individuals, but also the relationships with other individuals [34]. The
collaboration among three individuals, which is rarely observed in non-human animals, may
require the more expanded capacity of social cognition in this species. Hence, we consider
coalition formation in stump-tailed macaques as a unique instance of male-male cooperation to
achieve reproductive gain, which we believe is rare in non-human animals.
Why do male stump-tailed macaques, unlike males of closely related species, exhibit this
peculiar behavior? To put it in another way, what are the socio-ecological factors in stump-tailed
macaques that may have favored the evolution of this behavior? Here, we tentatively hypothesize
that the absence of signs of ovulation in female stump-tailed macaques is key to understanding
the evolution of male-male coalition, followed by facultative sharing. In many primate species,
the females exhibit visual or olfactory signs of ovulation during the fertile period of the
reproductive cycle. Conspicuous estrous signals such as sexual swellings enhance male-male
competition, providing females more opportunities for mate choice [35–37]. Advertisement of
female reproductive status is often seen in Old World monkeys living in multi-male multi-female
societies, such as most macaques, baboons, and chimpanzees [35–37]. When female
reproductive status is advertised, it is relatively easy for the alpha male to monopolize
fertilizations, as in that case he can concentrate all his guarding efforts on the females fertile at
that moment. On the other hand, when female ovulation is cryptic, the alpha male is no longer
able to adopt the selective guarding strategy, and reproductive monopoly is only possible if all
cycling females are guarded all the time. Our hypothesis is that the difficulty in establishing
reproductive monopoly by the alpha male due to concealed ovulation may have promoted
coalition formation of top-ranking males. Despite the low copulating frequency, it is surprising
that the males adopt a strategy to efficiently monopolize and share the copulating
opportunities—a critical reproductive resource—among multiple coalition males.
Our discovery of male-male coalition, followed by active sharing of mating opportunities
in stump-tailed macaques, demands a revision of the existing socioecological models in primate
social systems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first documented case in non-human
primates of non-kin collaborative effort for acquiring resources based on active sharing among
allies. We have hypothesized that the lack of estrous signs in female stump-tailed macaques,
unlike many Old World monkeys, is a key factor enhancing male-male coalition coupled with
active sharing. Concealed ovulation is likely to reduce the extent to which fertilizations are
monopolized by dominant males. In our mathematical model, this effect is represented by the
reduction in parameter ". The model predicts that male-male coalition is more likely to occur
when " is small, confirming the logical consistency of our hypothesis. From the female's
perspective, monopolization by dominant males is indicative of limited opportunities for females
to select mates, particularly when they prefer copulations with subordinate or out-group males.
Thus, concealed ovulation may be considered as a female strategy to facilitate mate choice.
Further extending the argument, the formation of coalition followed by active sharing of mating
opportunities may be a counter strategy of dominant males. In other words, being unable to
control female reproduction on his own, the alpha male may be better suited surrendering some
fertilization opportunities to elicit cooperation by subordinates. Hence, the intensified sperm
competition in stump-tailed macaques may be a joint consequence of female concealment of
fertility states and male sharing of mating opportunities. In addition, a potentially relevant
observation is that female stump-tailed macaques do not produce copulation calls [38]. Although
the function of female copulation calls is still a matter of contention [39,40], a possible
interpretation is that female stump-tailed macaques do not make any effort to induce male mate
guarding.
The present study has also revealed the importance of the number of males in a group as
a predictor for the formation of copulation coalitions among dominant males. In other words,
male-male coalition is more likely to be formed when there are more males in a group. In our
field site, we observed five groups of stump-tailed macaques consisting of 391 individuals, or on
an average 78.2 individuals per group. The relatively large group size is primarily due to the
semi-provisioning conditions in our study site, and this factor also appears to affect the
socioeconomic sex ratio, i.e., the ratio of the number of adult females to the number of adult
males. The average socioeconomic sex ratio in our sample is 1.33, while those that have been
previously reported for other populations of stump-tailed macaques are approximately 5.7 [18].
The smaller socioeconomic sex ratio indicates more intense male-male contest. Hence, both large
number of males per group and small socioeconomic ratio may have facilitated the occurrence of
coalition formation by dominant males in our study population.
Per our observational data, the coalition sizes were two or three, but did not exceed four;
however, our current model predicts the monotonic increase of the coalition size over four,
depending on the number of males in a group. This “discrepancy” might indicate three as the
limit of the coalition size in non-human animals. Actually, psychological experiments on
cooperative tasks revealed possibilities of collaboration by two or three subjects, but difficulties
were encountered with four or more subjects even in chimpanzees, probably due to the
limitations of social cognition. For the recognition of quadradic relations, an individual has to
recognize the possible combinations of dyadic and triadic relations, exponentially increasing the
socio-cognitive loading in the brain. Thus, such a socio-cognitive background might limit the
coalition size in stump-tailed macaques. In contrast, humans have evolved a hyper-cooperative
manner beyond the triadic allies, as suggested by the Machiavellian intelligence hypothesis.
We have also observed within-species variation to the extent to which copulations are
monopolized by dominant males, which is represented by " in our model. Despite the marked
ecological similarities between groups, the estimated "′ ranged from 0.30 to 0.97. In the Third
("Z = 0.97) and Wngklm ("Z = 0.78) groups, copulations were almost completely monopolized
by the alpha males, a situation that is called "despotic." This contrasts with the conventional
classification of primate societies, in which stump-tailed macaques are characterized as having
"egalitarian" societies [41], or class 3 social systems [42]. The traditional classification intends to
place each species on a single position on the despotic-egalitarian spectrum, based largely on the
species-level characterizations of ecological factors, such as whether or not a given species is
seasonal breeder, or the abundance and spatial distribution of food resources [43]. However, our
observations clearly suggest that the level of despotism as indicated by " is determined not
necessarily in such a top-down manner, but in a more bottom-up way, such that it may vary
within species according to the idiosyncrasies of each group. For example, our field observation
indicates that the despotic nature of the Third group may have been caused not only by the
physical strength of the alpha male, THR-M01, but by the absence of competent rivals; in fact,
other males seem either too old or immature to challenge him. Therefore, it appears that bottom5 up mechanisms determine " in each group, which then determines whether the alpha male will
adopt the solo monopolization strategy or the coalition strategy.
Finally, our model predicts the future dynamics in the stump-tailed macaque groups. For
example, when youngsters in the Third group become sufficiently mature to challenge the alpha
male, and as a consequence " is reduced, our model predicts that the alpha male will form
coalition with other males. We expect that a longitudinal observation of wild stump-tailed
macaques will confirm these model predictions. In conclusion, stump-tailed macaques are
characterized by societies ranging from despotism to egalitarianism, and from monopolization of
females by a dominant male to male-male coalition coupled with active sharing of mating
opportunities. Future studies on wild stump-tailed macaques may shed new light on the origins
and evolution of altruism and cooperation in mammalian societies, including the hypercooperation in human societies.

Policy interventions aimed at correcting self-servingly biased misperceptions are unlikely to be effective in the long run due to people’s ability to forget or suppress information that threatens their desired views

The Dynamics of Motivated Beliefs. Florian Zimmermann. American Economic Review. Feb 2020, Vol. 110, No. 2: Pages 337-363. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20180728

Abstract: A key question in the literature on motivated reasoning and self-deception is how motivated beliefs are sustained in the presence of feedback. In this paper, we explore dynamic motivated belief patterns after feedback. We establish that positive feedback has a persistent effect on beliefs. Negative feedback, instead, influences beliefs in the short run, but this effect fades over time. We investigate the mechanisms of this dynamic pattern, and provide evidence for an asymmetry in the recall of feedback. Finally, we establish that, in line with theoretical accounts, incentives for belief accuracy mitigate the role of motivated reasoning. (JEL C91, D83, D91)

---
We find that negative feedback is indeed recalled with significantly lower accuracy, compared to positive feedback, which suggests that the dynamic belief pattern we have identified is indeed driven by the selective recall of information. Next, we make use of additional outcome variables and a placebo condition to delve into how selective recall operates. In a nutshell, the following patterns emerge. Our results suggest that participants are able to suppress the recall of unwanted memories. Furthermore, participants appear to suppress the recall of not only negative feedback but also the IQ test more broadly. Our results lend direct support to key modeling assumptions in Bénabou and Tirole (2002, 2004). From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that policy interventions aimed at correcting self-servingly biased misperceptions via information or feedback are unlikely to be effective in the long run due to people’s ability to forget or suppress information that threatens their desired views.

Kissing frequency was a strong indicator of both specific sexual quality & global relationship connectivity, barometer of the more immediate quality of sexual relationships & the overall relationship quality

A kiss is not just a kiss: kissing frequency, sexual quality, attachment, and sexual and relationship satisfaction. Dean M. Busby,Veronica Hanna-Walker &Chelom E. Leavitt. Sexual and Relationship Therapy, Jan 31 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/14681994.2020.1717460

Abstract: Kissing can be thought of as a relationship maintenance behavior and/or as part of the sexual repertoire. Using data from 1,605 participants in committed relationships for at least two years, we analyzed how kissing frequency was associated with specific aspects of the two most recent sexual experiences, attachment, and global sexual and relationship satisfaction using a structural equation model. Kissing frequency had a significant, positive association with all specific aspects of recent sexual experiences (levels or arousal, experience of orgasm, and event-specific sexual satisfaction) and global sexual and relationship satisfaction. Kissing frequency had a significant, negative association with anxious and avoidant attachment. The associations with attachment and specific aspects of recent sexual experiences only partially mediated the relationship between kissing frequency and global relationship and sexual satisfaction. The results indicated that kissing frequency was a strong indicator of both specific sexual quality and global relationship connectivity and may be a promising variable to utilize as a barometer of both the more immediate quality of sexual relationships as well as overall relationship quality.

Keywords: Kissing, attachment, sexual satisfaction, relationship satisfaction

Small-scale societies: Divinatory statements provide a version of the situation that most participants are motivated to agree with, providing efficient coordination at a minimal cost for almost all participants

Why Divination? Evolved Psychology and Strategic Interaction in the Production of Truth. Pascal Boyer. Current Anthropology, Jan 14, 2020. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706879

Abstract: Divination is found in most human societies, but there is little systematic research to explain (1) why it is persuasive or (2) why divination is required for important collective decisions in many small-scale societies. Common features of human communication and cooperation may help address both questions. A highly recurrent feature of divination is “ostensive detachment,” a demonstration that the diviners are not the authors of the statements they utter. As a consequence, people spontaneously interpret divination as less likely than other statements to be influenced by anyone’s intentions or interests. This is enough to give divination an epistemic advantage compared with other sources of information, answering question 1. This advantage is all the more important in situations where a diagnosis will create differential costs and benefits, for example, determining who is responsible for someone’s misfortune in a small-scale community. Divinatory statements provide a version of the situation that most participants are motivated to agree with, as it provides a focal point for efficient coordination at a minimal cost for almost all participants, which would answer question 2.

Despite motivation to alleviate discomfort and to maintain a morally good self-concept, more severe moral transgressions are actually remembered more frequently, more vividly, and with more detail

The phenomenology of remembering our moral transgressions. Shenyang Huang, Matthew L. Stanley Felipe De Brigard. Memory & Cognition, January 27 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13421-019-01009-0

Abstract: People tend to believe that they truly are morally good, and yet they commit moral transgressions with surprising frequency in their everyday lives. To explain this phenomenon, some theorists have suggested that people remember their moral transgressions with fewer details, lower vivacity, and less clarity, relative to their morally good deeds and other kinds of past events. These phenomenological differences are thought to help alleviate psychological discomfort and to help people maintain a morally good self-concept. Given these motivations to alleviate discomfort and to maintain a morally good self-concept, we might expect our more egregious moral transgressions, relative to our more minor transgressions, to be remembered less frequently, with fewer details, with lower vivacity, and with a reduced sense of reliving. More severe moral transgressions might also be less central to constructions of personal identity. In contrast to these expectations, our results suggest that participants’ more severe moral transgressions are actually remembered more frequently, more vividly, and with more detail. More severe moral transgressions also tend to be more central to personal identity. We discuss the implications of these results for the motivation to maintain a morally good self-concept and for the functions of autobiographical memory.

Keywords: Autobiographical memory Moral psychology Identity Self Phenomenology

British football leagues: Male height is positively associated with social dominance; but the ‘Napoleon complex’/‘small man syndrome’ suggests that smaller males are more assertive & punitive to compensate

Referee height influences decision making in British football leagues. Dane McCarrick, Gayle Brewer, Minna Lyons, Thomas V. Pollet & Nick Neave. BMC Psychology volume 8, Article number: 4 (2020). January 17. https://bmcpsychology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40359-020-0370-4

Abstract
Background Male height is positively associated with social dominance, and more agonistic/competitive behaviours. However, the ‘Napoleon complex’ or ‘small man syndrome’ suggests that smaller males are more assertive and punitive to compensate for lack of height and social dominance. Here, we assess possible relationships between height and punitive behaviours in a real-world setting.

Methods Using a non-experimental correlational design, we analysed data on 61 male association football referees from four professional leagues in England, and explored relationships between their height and punitive behaviours in the form of yellow cards, red cards and penalties given during an entire season.

Results Overall there was no effect of referee height on fouls awarded. However, there was a main effect of height on yellow cards awarded, with shorter referees issuing more yellow cards. The same effect was found for red cards and penalties, though this was moderated by league. In the lower leagues, more red cards and penalties were awarded by relatively shorter referees, but in the higher leagues more red cards and penalties were awarded by relatively taller referees.

Conclusions These findings from real-life public dominance encounters show that height is associated with punitive behaviours, but is sensitive to context.

Rolf Degen summarizing... People are reluctant to adopt low-carbon behaviors as long as "the rich" and the “egoistic people” are not doing their part

Revisiting the Psychology of Denial Concerning Low-Carbon Behaviors: From Moral Disengagement to Generating Social Change. Susanne Stoll-Kleemann, Tim O’Riordan. Sustainability 2020, 12(3), 935, January 27 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030935

Abstract: This paper reassesses the scope for shifting high-carbon personal behaviors in the light of prevailing insufficient political and regulatory action. Our previous research has shown that citizens regard such behavioral shifts as extremely daunting and create a number of psychological denial mechanisms that draw attention to the inaction of others, including governments. Further theoretical insights and relevant new findings have been attained from a more recent survey of more than 1000 German residents. This reveals that direct denial of anthropogenic climate change is replaced by a denial of responsibility for individual climate action. Ways of moral disengagement play a more dominant role, such as the diffusion and displacement of responsibility, although a majority is aware of—and very much concerned about—the climate crisis. More attention needs to be given for further reinterpretation of the role of moral disengagement to single out adequate strategies for different individuals and groups of people, such as making role models more visible to encourage social learning that could accelerate further necessary moral and behavioral transformations.

Keywords: climate change; behavior change; denial; emotions; low-carbon behavior; moral disengagement; collective action; responsibility; self-efficacy

All religious, etchnic, and racial groups appear to make use of pornography; its use is associated with greater health, knowledge, and standard of living, and lower homophobia

Pornography Use: What Do Cross-Cultural Patterns Tell Us? David L. Rowland, Dudbeth Uribe. In: Cultural Differences and the Practice of Sexual Medicine pp 317-334. January 28 2020. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-36222-5_18

Abstract: Access to online pornography has increased greatly over the past decade. In this chapter we first review purported effects of pornography use. We then present data compiled from one source of internet pornography use, namely Pornhub, and review findings from a cross-cultural perspective. Specifically, we investigate age and gender patterns across various regions of the world and relate pornography use to a number of sociocultural indices. Results indicate changing age and gender patterns with respect to pornography use, as well as relationships with indices of human development, gender inequality, trans/homophobia, and internet access. Given that internet pornography may increasingly serve as a means of sex education in many cultures, the importance of implementing meaningful and balanced sex education that promotes healthy sexual relationships is critically important.

Keywords: Pornography Cross-cultural Online Gender Age Worldwide trends Effects

Our expressed virtue judgments of specific traits may function, in part, as self-interested propaganda, by influencing the social value assigned by local others to the traits we happen to possess

Morality and the Modular Mind: Propagandistic Self-Interest and Perceptions of Virtue. Schwab, Leon T. California State University, Fullerton, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2019. 27547780. https://search.proquest.com/openview/d3e07a339e0df51cfc8a674b86ab3f5c/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=2026366&diss=y

ABSTRACT: The underlying cognitive mechanisms that regulate how people formulate moralistic judgements of others’ behaviors and traits are poorly understood. This study tests the novel prediction, based on a hypothesized function of self-interested propaganda, that the extent to which a given trait is perceived as virtuous is positively influenced by one’s own standing on that trait. In a first study, data were gathered from 237 participants who completed an online survey. Participants rated the same list of traits for (i) their self-perceived standing on those traits, and (ii) their judgment of those traits as being virtuous. Some notable correlations between self-perceived trait possession and virtue ratings of those traits are Patriotism (r = 0.56, p < .01), Religiosity (r = 0.56, p < .01), Attractiveness (r = 0.5, p < .01), and Strength (r = 0.49, p < .01). A second study replicated these findings when controlling for participants’ estimates of (i) what others in their immediate social world would perceive as virtues, and (ii) what others in their distant social world would perceive as virtues. Although preliminary, these initial findings suggest that our expressed virtue judgments of specific traits may function, in part, as self-interested propaganda, by influencing the social value assigned by local others to the traits we happen to possess.

1985-2017: Media representations of climate change have become increasingly politicized, whereby political actors are increasingly featured and scientific actors less so

Politicization and Polarization in Climate Change News Content, 1985-2017. Sedona Chinn, P. Sol Hart, Stuart Soroka. Science Communication, January 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547019900290

Abstract: Despite concerns about politicization and polarization in climate change news, previous work has not been able to offer evidence concerning long-term trends. Using computer-assisted content analyses of all climate change articles from major newspapers in the United States between 1985 and 2017, we find that media representations of climate change have become (a) increasingly politicized, whereby political actors are increasingly featured and scientific actors less so and (b) increasingly polarized, in that Democratic and Republican discourses are markedly different. These findings parallel trends in U.S. public opinion, pointing to these features of news coverage as polarizing influences on climate attitudes.

Keywords: climate change, computerized content analysis, news, politicization


Check also Merkley, Eric, and Dominik Stecula. 2020. “Party Cues in the News: Democratic Elites, Republican Backlash and the Dynamics of Climate Skepticism.”  British Journal of Political Science. Preprint January 25. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/01/supporters-of-republican-party-have.html

And Political leanings are the strongest predictors of climate change beliefs, particularly among the more knowledgeable:

Climate Change: A Partisan and Polarized Issue in the United States. Risa Palm, Toby Bolsen. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in South Florida pp 15-40, January 2 2020. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/01/political-leanings-are-strongest.html

The Smartphone as a Pacifying Technology: In moments of stress, engaging with one’s smartphone provides greater stress relief than one’s laptop or a similar smartphone belonging to someone else

The Smartphone as a Pacifying Technology. Shiri Melumad, Michel Tuan Pham. Journal of Consumer Research, ucaa005, January 27 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucaa005

Abstract: In light of consumers’ growing dependence on their smartphones, this article investigates the nature of the relationship that consumers form with their smartphone and its underlying mechanisms. We propose that in addition to obvious functional benefits, consumers in fact derive emotional benefits from their smartphone, in particular, feelings of psychological comfort and, if needed, actual stress relief. In other words, in a sense, smartphones are not unlike “adult pacifiers.” This psychological comfort arises from a unique combination of properties that turn smartphones into a reassuring presence for their owners: the portability of the device, its personal nature, the subjective sense of privacy experienced while on the device, and the haptic gratification it affords. Results from one large-scale field study and three laboratory experiments support the proposed underlying mechanisms and document downstream consequences of the psychological comfort that smartphones provide. The findings show, for example, that (a) in moments of stress, consumers exhibit a greater tendency to seek out their smartphone (study 2); and (b) engaging with one’s smartphone provides greater stress relief than engaging in the same activity with a comparable device such as one’s laptop (study 3) or a similar smartphone belonging to someone else (study 4).

Keyword: product attachment, psychology of technology, mobile marketing, digital marketing

Exaggerated psychological stress reactivity linked to increase in risk factors for cardiovascular disease; blunted reactivity predicted future increased obesity, greater illness frequency, poorer cognitive ability

Psychological stress reactivity and future health and disease outcomes: A systematic review of prospective evidence. Anne I. Turner et al . Psychoneuroendocrinology, February 1 2020, 104599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2020.104599

Highlights
• SAM system and HPA axis reactivity predict future health and disease outcomes
• Exaggerated and blunted responses predict different health and disease outcomes
• Reactivity-related health and disease outcomes are both physical and mental
• Intermediate stress responses (“Goldilocks” responses) may be the most adaptive
• A “bidirectional multi-system reactivity hypothesis” is proposed

Abstract
Background Acute psychological stress activates the sympatho-adrenal medullary (SAM) system and hypothalamo-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. The relevance of this stress reactivity to long-term health and disease outcomes is of great importance. We examined prospective studies in apparently healthy adults to test the hypothesis that the magnitude of the response to acute psychological stress in healthy adults is related to future health and disease outcomes.

Methods We searched Medline Complete, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete and Embase up to 15 Aug 2019. Included studies were peer-reviewed, English-language, prospective studies in apparently healthy adults. The exposure was acute psychological stress reactivity (SAM system or HPA axis) at baseline. The outcome was any health or disease outcome at follow-up after ≥ 1 year.

Results We identified 1,719 papers through database searching and 1 additional paper through other sources. Forty-seven papers met our criteria including 32,866 participants (range 30 – 4100) with 1-23 years of follow-up. Overall, one third (32%; 83/263) of all reported findings were significant and two thirds (68%; 180/263) were null. With regard to the significant findings, both exaggerated (i.e. high) and blunted (i.e. low) stress reactivity of both the SAM system and the HPA axis at baseline were related to health and disease outcomes at follow-up. Exaggerated stress reactivity at baseline predicted an increase in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and decreased telomere length at follow-up. In contrast, blunted stress reactivity predicted future increased adiposity and obesity, more depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms, greater illness frequency, musculoskeletal pain and regulatory T-Cell percentage, poorer cognitive ability, poorer self-reported health and physical disability and lower bone mass.

Conclusion Exaggerated and blunted SAM system and HPA axis stress reactivity predicted distinct physical and mental health and disease outcomes over time. Results from prospective studies consistently indicate stress reactivity as a predictor for future health and disease outcomes. Dysregulation of stress reactivity may represent a mechanism by which psychological stress contributes to the development of future health and disease outcomes.

Keywords: acute stressblood pressureheart rateepinephrinenorepinephrinecortisolsympatho-adrenal medullary systemhypothalamo-pituitary adrenal axishealth outcomesdisease outcomes

When honest people cheat, and cheaters are honest: Cognitive control processes override our moral default

When honest people cheat, and cheaters are honest: Cognitive control processes override our moral default. Sebastian P.H. Speer, Ale Smidts, Maarten A.S. Boksem. bioRxiv, Jan 24 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.907634

Abstract: Every day, we are faced with the conflict between the temptation to cheat for financial gains and maintaining a positive image of ourselves as being a ‘good person’. While it has been proposed that cognitive control is needed to mediate this conflict between reward and our moral self-image, the exact role of cognitive control in (dis)honesty remains elusive. Here, we identify this role, by investigating the neural mechanism underlying cheating. We developed a novel task which allows for inconspicuously measuring spontaneous cheating on a trial-by-trial basis in the MRI scanner. We found that activity in the Nucleus Accumbens promotes cheating, particularly for individuals who cheat a lot, while a network consisting of Posterior Cingulate Cortex, Temporoparietal Junction and Medial Prefrontal Cortex promotes honesty, particularly in individuals who are generally honest. Finally, activity in areas associated with Cognitive Control (Anterior Cingulate Cortex and Inferior Frontal Gyrus) helped dishonest participants to be honest, whereas it promoted cheating for honest participants. Thus, our results suggest that cognitive control is not needed to be honest or dishonest per se, but that it depends on an individual’s moral default.

Highly educated parents are more able to preserve their family's elite status in the next generation

The social and genetic inheritance of educational attainment: Genes, parental education, and educational expansion. Meng-Jung Lin. Social Science Research, Volume 86, February 2020, 102387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.102387

Abstract: Recently, several genome-wide association studies of educational attainment have found education-related genetic variants and enabled the integration of human inheritance into social research. This study incorporates the newest education polygenic score (Lee et al., 2018) into sociological research, and tests three gene-environment interaction hypotheses on status attainment. Using the Health and Retirement Study (N = 7599), I report three findings. First, a standard deviation increase in the education polygenic score is associated with a 58% increase in the likelihood of advancing to the next level of education, while a standard deviation increase in parental education results in a 53% increase. Second, supporting the Saunders hypothesis, the genetic effect becomes 11% smaller when parental education is one standard deviation higher, indicating that highly educated parents are more able to preserve their family's elite status in the next generation. Finally, the genetic effect is slightly greater for the younger cohort (1942–59) than the older cohort (1920–41). The findings strengthen the existing literature on the social influences in helping children achieve their innate talents.

Keywords: Educational attainmentParental educationCohortGene-environment interactionEducational expansion in higher education

People do not realize that failures contain useful information; therefore, people undershare failures in and beyond organizations settings

Hidden failures. Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 157, March 2020, Pages 57-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.11.007

Highlights
• People do not realize that failures contain useful information.
• Therefore, people undershare failures in and beyond organizations settings.
• Highlighting the information in failure makes people more likely to share it.

Abstract: Failure often contains useful information, yet across five studies involving 11 separate samples (N = 1238), people were reluctant to share this information with others. First, using a novel experimental paradigm, we found that participants consistently undershared failure—relative to success and a no-feedback experience—even though failure contained objectively more information than these comparison experiences. Second, this reluctance to share failure generalized to professional experiences. Teachers in the field were less likely to share information gleaned from failure than information gleaned from success, and employees were less likely to share lessons gleaned from failed versus successful attempts to concentrate at work. Why are people reluctant to share failure? Across experimental and professional failures, people did not realize that failure contained useful information. The current investigation illuminates an erroneous belief and the asymmetrical world of information it produces: one where failures are common in private, but hidden in public.

Keywords: SharingFailureInformationSuccessKnowledge transfer

Pseudo-profound statement attributed to the Dalai Lama seems even more profound: "We are non‐local beings that localize as a dot then inflate to become non‐local again. The universe is mirrored in us."

“Who said it?” How contextual information influences perceived profundity of meaningful quotes and pseudo‐profound bullshit. Vukašin Gligorić  Ana Vilotijević. Applied Cognitive Psychology, December 20 2019. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3626

Summary: Psychological research on pseudo‐profound bullshit—randomly assembled buzz words plugged into a syntactic structure—has only recently begun. Most such research has focused on dispositional traits, such as thinking styles or political orientation. However, none has investigated contextual factors. In two studies, we introduce a new paradigm by investigating the contextual effect on pseudo‐profound bullshit and meaningful quotes. In Study 1, all participants rated the profundity of statements in three contexts: (a) isolated, (b) as allegedly said by a famous author, or (c) within a vignette (short story). Study 2 serves as a conceptual replication in which participants rated statements in only one of three contexts. Overall, our results demonstrate that although contextual information such as author's name increases the perceived profundity of bullshit, it has an inconsistent effect on meaningful quotes. The present study helps to better understand the bullshit receptivity while offering a new line of research.

4 GENERAL DISCUSSION

In the present research, we tried to add to the small amount of literature on pseudo‐profound bullshit, while offering a new paradigm. Across two studies, we demonstrated that pseudo‐profound bullshit is susceptible to the labeling effect—bullshit being rated as more profound when presented as being uttered by a famous author. On the contrary, this contextual effect for meaningful quotes was inconsistent, as profundity ratings were increased only in the second study.

The labeling effect for pseudo‐profound bullshit is similar to the ratings of poems attributed to famous or bogus poets (Bar‐Hillel et al., 2012). Although we did not investigate any underlying mechanisms of the effect, it is plausible to assume the similar process to those where expectation led to genuinely different feeling (e.g. Bar‐Hillel et al., 2012; Lee et al., 2006). That is, after seeing a famous author's name next to the statement, participants might have been primed by the author's name and construed the meaning in the statement. However, the power of different authorities remains; it may happen that one is seduced by an authority from an unfamiliar field (e.g., art/Dali), whereas this could not be the case for the familiar field (e.g., physics/Plank). Specifically, one of the directions for future research could be to examine whether certain authorities (i.e., based on occupation) have a larger or smaller impact on bullshit receptivity. Taken together, it would be beneficial to test whether this tendency is irrational or not (as in heuristics, for example).

Interestingly, increase in profundity was inconsistent for meaningful quotes as it emerged only in the second study. All meaningful quotes from Study 2 were taken as excerpts from particular authors' work, which makes them decontextualized. This might be the reason why there was a contextual effect on these quotes. As quotes usually depict the author's views represented by their own words on a certain topic (Conrad, 1999), this way of recruiting can constrain their application. Alternatively, short and widely applicable sayings (such as Latin phrases, e.g., “He conquers who conquers himself”) might be immune to the contextual effect due to their life‐oriented message and widespread use. This might be one of the avenues for future research.

Another possible path of label influence is through the contextualization of the statement. For example, when one reads a short story (or book excerpt), she might relate the bullshit to that story so that “non‐local beings that localize as a dot” actually relate to the protagonists of the story (e.g., signifying the old man's unimportance in the world). Even though our data do not support these conclusions, vignette condition had higher absolute ratings than the isolated condition. It might be the case that our short stores in Study 1 did not have enough literary value to increase the profundity. Although the vignette condition (book excerpt) improved ratings in Study 2, it also contained the author's name, making it impossible to distinguish whether effect occurred due to the author or the excerpt. However, this condition had higher absolute values than the author‐only condition, supporting our notions. These questions remain open for other researchers to answer.

Surprisingly, in Study 2, meaningful quotes and pseudo‐profound bullshit were rated as equally deep, which is in contrast to results from Study 1 and findings from bullshit research (e.g., Čavojova et al., 2018; Pennycook et al., 2015). One plausible reason is the selection of the deepest pseudo‐profound items from the original 30‐item scale. Higher mean profundity ratings for bullshit items in Study 2 (M = 3.2 compared with M = 2.9 in Study 1) support this notion. Therefore, although the same five pseudo‐profound items had similar ratings in two studies (M = 3.17 and M = 3.20), the mean bullshit score was lower in the first study as it contained other bullshit items that had lower ratings. Second, our selection of meaningful quotes does not necessarily guarantee their profundity—mean profundity ratings for meaningful quotes was lower in Study 2 (M = 3.3 compared with M = 3.7 in Study 1). That is, some of the meaningful quotes in Study 2 might seem like contemporary motivational quotes (e.g., “They always say that time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself.”) and therefore have lower ratings. Indeed, this quote had the lowest ratings along with the Dostoevsky's quote (“To go wrong in one's own way is better than to go right in someone else's.”).

In conclusion, our results suggest that pseudo‐profound bullshit is susceptible to contextual effects—attributing a statement to a famous person alters its perception. Although it might be only economically exploited (as in the case of New Age leading figures), other kinds of bullshit (for example, political), might be more dangerous. Demonstrating how easily people might evaluate pseudo‐profound statements as more profound just because they were presented with an author's name; we should be aware of potential abuse of this type of effect.

Lying to appear honest: People may lie to appear honest in cases where the truth is highly favorable to them, such that telling the truth might make them appear dishonest to others

Choshen-Hillel, S., Shaw, A., & Caruso, E. M. (2020). Lying to appear honest. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. Jan 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000737

Abstract: People try to avoid appearing dishonest. Although efforts to avoid appearing dishonest can often reduce lying, we argue that, at times, the desire to appear honest can actually lead people to lie. We hypothesize that people may lie to appear honest in cases where the truth is highly favorable to them, such that telling the truth might make them appear dishonest to others. A series of studies provided robust evidence for our hypothesis. Lawyers, university students, and MTurk and Prolific participants said that they would have underreported extremely favorable outcomes in real-world scenarios (Studies 1a–1d). They did so to avoid appearing dishonest. Furthermore, in a novel behavioral paradigm involving a chance game with monetary prizes, participants who received in private a very large number of wins reported fewer wins than they received; they lied and incurred a monetary cost to avoid looking like liars (Studies 2a–2c). Finally, we show that people’s concern that others would think that they have overreported is valid (Studies 3a–3b). We discuss our findings in relation to the literatures on dishonesty and on reputation.

Sexual orientation explains < 1% of the variation in consumption-favoring behaviors; the common belief of a stylish & extremely wealthy gay consumer must be questioned; differences decrease with age

Sexual orientation and consumption: Why and when do homosexuals and heterosexuals consume differently? Martin Eisend, Erik Hermann. International Journal of Research in Marketing, Jan 31 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2020.01.005

Highlights
• Sexual orientation explains < 1% of the variation in consumption-favoring behaviors.
• The common belief of a stylish and extremely wealthy gay consumer must be questioned.
• Consumption differences between homosexuals and heterosexuals decrease with age.
• Consumption differences increase when comparing homosexuals and heterosexuals of the same gender.

Abstract: The increasing visibility of homosexuality in society, combined with the lesbian and gay community's considerable buying power, has triggered marketers and researchers' interest in understanding homosexual consumers' consumption patterns. Prior research on whether homosexual consumers behave differently from heterosexual consumers has yielded mixed results, and researchers and practitioners still do not know whether any substantial differences exist, what these differences look like, and how they can be explained. The findings from a meta-analysis reveal that sexual orientation explains on average < 1% of the variation in consumption behavior across 45 papers, indicating only slightly different consumption behaviors. Findings from a moderator analysis contradict conventional wisdom and lay theories, while partly supporting assumptions that are rooted in evolutionary and biological theories that show consumption differences decrease with age; they increase when comparing homosexuals and heterosexuals of the same gender. These findings, which question long-held beliefs about homosexual consumers, help marketers to successfully adjust their strategies.

Keywords: Sexual orientationConsumptionMeta-analysis

The art of flirting: What are the traits that make it effective?

The art of flirting: What are the traits that make it effective? Menelaos Apostolou, Christoforos Christoforou. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 158, 1 May 2020, 109866. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.109866

Highlights
•    Identified 47 traits which turn flirting effective.
•    Classified the 47 traits into nine factors which turn flirting effective.
•    Found that women rated gentle approach, while men rated good looks as more effective.
•    Found that older participants rated factors, gentle approach as more effective.

Abstract: Flirting is an essential aspect of human interaction and key for the formation of intimate relationships. In the current research, we aimed to identify the traits that turn it more effective. In particular, in Study 1 we used open-ended questionnaires in a sample of 487 Greek-speaking participants, and identified 47 traits that make flirting effective. In Study 2, we asked 808 Greek-speaking participants to rate how effective each trait would be on them. Using principal components analysis, we classified these traits into nine broader factors. Having a good non-verbal behavior, being intelligent and having a gentle approach, were rated as the most important factors. Sex difference were found for most of the factors. For example, women rated gentle approach as more effective on them, while men rated good looks as more effective. Last but not least, older participants rated factors, such as the “Gentle approach,” to be more effective on them.

Check also A considerable proportion of people in postindustrial societies experience difficulties in intimate relationships and spend considerable time being single:

The Association Between Mating Performance, Marital Status, and the Length of Singlehood: Evidence From Greece and China. Menelaos Apostolou, Yan Wang. Evolutionary Psychology, November 13, 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/11/a-considerable-proportion-of-people-in.html

Search for meaning is positively associated with presence of meaning only for those with greater maladaptive traits; & the search for meaning in adverse circumstances appears to be more effective than in benign conditions

Is the Search for Meaning Related to the Presence of Meaning? Moderators of the Longitudinal Relationship. Steven Tsun-Wai Chu & Helene Hoi-Lam Fung. Journal of Happiness Studies, January 30 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-020-00222-y

Abstract: Meaning in life is an important element of psychological well-being. Intuitively, the search for meaning is associated with greater presence of meaning, but whether the relationship exists is met with mixed findings in the literature. The present studies aim to investigate the moderators of this relationship. Two studies, a one-month longitudinal study (N = 166, retention rate = 100%) and a six-month longitudinal study (N = 181, retention rate = 83%) were carried out. Participants completed measures on meaning in life, personality variables, and psychological needs in the baseline survey, and meaning in life in the follow-up survey. Multiple regression analysis showed that optimism, BIS, and psychological needs emerged to be significant moderators of the longitudinal relationship. Search for meaning at baseline was positively associated with presence of meaning at follow-up only for those with greater maladaptive traits. The search for meaning in adverse circumstances appears to be more effective than in benign conditions. Deficiency search is functional.

Drug makers feel burned: By the time the vaccine was ready—after the peak of the outbreak—public fear of the new flu had subsided; many people didn’t want the vaccine, and some countries refused to take their full orders

From 2018... Who will answer the call in the next outbreak? Drug makers feel burned by string of vaccine pleas. Helen Branswell. Stat News, January 11, 2018. https://www.statnews.com/2018/01/11/vaccines-drug-makers/

Excerpts:

Every few years an alarming disease launches a furious, out-of-the-blue attack on people, triggering a high-level emergency response. SARS. The H1N1 flu pandemic. West Nile and Zika. The nightmarish West African Ebola epidemic.

In nearly each case, major vaccine producers have risen to the challenge, setting aside their day-to-day profit-making activities to try to meet a pressing societal need. With each successive crisis, they have done so despite mounting concerns that the threat will dissipate and with it the demand for the vaccine they are racing to develop.

Now, manufacturers are expressing concern about their ability to afford these costly disruptions to their profit-seeking operations. As a result, when the bat-signal next flares against the night sky, there may not be anyone to respond.

...

Drug makers “have very clearly articulated that … the current way of approaching this — to call them during an emergency and demand that they do this and that they reallocate resources, disrupt their daily operations in order to respond to these events — is completely unsustainable,” said Richard Hatchett, CEO of CEPI, an organization set up after the Ebola crisis to fund early-stage development of vaccines to protect against emerging disease threats.

...

Nearly all the major pharmaceutical companies that work on these vaccines have found themselves holding the bag after at least one of these outbreaks.

GSK stepped up during the Ebola crisis, but has since essentially shelved the experimental vaccine it once raced to try to test and license. Two other vaccines — Merck’s and one being developed by Janssen, the vaccines division of Johnson & Johnson — are still slowly wending their ways through difficult and costly development processes. Neither company harbors any hope of earning back in sales the money it spent on development.

A number of flu vaccine manufacturers were left on the hook with ordered but unpaid for vaccine during the mild 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. By the time the vaccine was ready — after the peak of the outbreak — public fear of the new flu had subsided. Many people didn’t want the vaccine, and some countries refused to take their full orders. GSK, Sanofi Pasteur, and Novartis — which has since shed its vaccines operation — produced flu vaccine in that pandemic.

Dr. Rip Ballou, who heads the U.S. research and development center for GSK Global Vaccines, told STAT it’s not in the “company’s DNA” to say “no” to pleas to respond to appeals in an emergency. But the way it has responded in the past is no longer tenable.

“We do not want to have these activities compete with in-house programs,” said Ballou. “And our learnings from Ebola, from pandemic flu, from SARS previously, is that it’s very disruptive and that’s not the way that we want to do business going forward.”

GSK has proposed using a facility it has in Rockville, Md., as a production plant for vaccines needed in emergencies, but the funding commitments that would be needed to turn that idea into reality haven’t materialized.

...

Sanofi Pasteur has also taken several enormous hits in the successive rounds of disease emergency responses. In the early 2000s, the company worked on a West Nile virus vaccine. Though the disease still causes hundreds of cases of severe illness in the U.S. every year and is estimated to have been responsible for over 2,000 deaths from 1999 to 2016, public fear abated, taking with it the prospects for sales of a vaccine. Sanofi eventually pulled the plug.

...

At the same time, the company bore the brunt of a barrage of criticism for not publicly committing to a low-price guarantee for developing countries. Facing horrible PR and no sales prospects, Sanofi announced late last summer that it was out.

...

In an emergency, regulatory agencies may be willing to bend some rules. But once the crisis subsides, they revert to normal operating procedures — as Merck has found out as it tries to persuade regulators to accept data from an innovative ring-vaccination trial conducted on its Ebola vaccine.

“This is sort of a human nature problem. People pay attention to the burning house, and maybe not the one that’s got bad wiring, right, that’s down the street,” Shiver said.

Predictive Pattern Classification Can Distinguish Gender Identity Subtypes (the subjective perception of oneself belonging to a certain gender) from Behavior and Brain Imaging

Predictive Pattern Classification Can Distinguish Gender Identity Subtypes from Behavior and Brain Imaging. Benjamin Clemens, Birgit Derntl, Elke Smith, Jessica Junger, Josef Neulen, Gianluca Mingoia, Frank Schneider, Ted Abel, Danilo Bzdok, Ute Habel. Cerebral Cortex, bhz272, January 29 2020, https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhz272

Abstract: The exact neurobiological underpinnings of gender identity (i.e., the subjective perception of oneself belonging to a certain gender) still remain unknown. Combining both resting-state functional connectivity and behavioral data, we examined gender identity in cisgender and transgender persons using a data-driven machine learning strategy. Intrinsic functional connectivity and questionnaire data were obtained from cisgender (men/women) and transgender (trans men/trans women) individuals. Machine learning algorithms reliably detected gender identity with high prediction accuracy in each of the four groups based on connectivity signatures alone. The four normative gender groups were classified with accuracies ranging from 48% to 62% (exceeding chance level at 25%). These connectivity-based classification accuracies exceeded those obtained from a widely established behavioral instrument for gender identity. Using canonical correlation analyses, functional brain measurements and questionnaire data were then integrated to delineate nine canonical vectors (i.e., brain-gender axes), providing a multilevel window into the conventional sex dichotomy. Our dimensional gender perspective captures four distinguishable brain phenotypes for gender identity, advocating a biologically grounded reconceptualization of gender dimorphism. We hope to pave the way towards objective, data-driven diagnostic markers for gender identity and transgender, taking into account neurobiological and behavioral differences in an integrative modeling approach.

Keywords: fMRI, gender identity, machine learning, resting-state functional connectivity, transgender