Saturday, February 22, 2020

Shorter and longer durations of sleep are associated with an increased twelve-month prevalence of psychiatric and substance use disorders

Shorter and longer durations of sleep are associated with an increased twelve-month prevalence of psychiatric and substance use disorders: Findings from a nationally representative survey of US adults (NESARC-III). Pierre A. Geoffroy et al. Journal of Psychiatric Research, February 21 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2020.02.018

Highlights
• This study present nationally representative data on the prevalence of mental disorders stratified by duration of sleep.
• A U-shaped association was observed between sleep duration and all psychiatric and substance use disorders.
• Highest risks, exceeding a 3-fold increase for some mental disorders, were observed for short sleepers, especially for the <5 h/night group compared with the 7 h/night reference group.
• These results suggest that adequate sleep duration may have general clinical benefits, calling for actions for primary prevention in public health settings.

Abstract: The lack of comprehensive data on the association between psychiatric and substance use disorders and habitual sleep duration represents a major health information gap. This study examines the 12-month prevalence of mental disorders stratified by duration of sleep. Data were drawn from face-to-face interviews conducted in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III, a nationally representative survey of US adults (N = 36,309). There were 1893 (5.26%) participants who reported <5h of sleep/night; 2434(6.76%) 5 h/night; 7621(21.17%) 6 h/night; 9620(26.72%) 7 h/night; 11,186(31.07%) 8 h/night, and 3245(9.01%) ≥9 h/night. A U-shaped association was observed between sleep duration and all mental disorders. The prevalence of mental disorders was 55% for individuals with <5 h/night and 47.81% for ≥9 h/night, versus 28.24% for the 7 h/night (aOR = 1.90 and 1.39 respectively). The greatest odds ratios were for the <5 h/night group, with an increased risk above 3-fold for panic disorder (PD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), psychotic disorder, and suicide attempt; between 2 and 3 fold for major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD), and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD); and between 1 and 2 fold for tobacco and drug use disorders, specific and social phobias. The ≥9 h/night group had an increased risk above 1 to 2-fold regarding tobacco and drug use disorders, MDD, BD, PD, social phobia, GAD, PTSD, psychotic disorder, and suicide attempt. U-shaped associations exist between sleep duration and mental disorders, calling for respect to recommendations for adequate sleep duration in routine clinical care as well as to actions for primary prevention in public health settings.

Keywords: SleepCircadian rhythmsPsychiatric disordersPsychiatryAddictions

Weaker copyrights encouraged the creation of follow-on science by a reduction in access costs, allowing scientists at less affluent institutions to use existing knowledge in new follow-on research

Effects of Copyrights on Science: Evidence from the WWII Book Republication Program. Barbara Biasi and Petra Moser. Feb 2020. https://www.dropbox.com/s/3go6y47fplwt6nf/BRP.pdf

Abstract: Copyrights, which establish intellectual property in music, science,and other creative goods, are intended to encourage creativity. Yet, copyrights also raise the cost of accessing existing work - potentially discouraging future innovation.This paper uses an exogenous shift towards weak copyrights(and low access costs) during WWII to examine the potentially adverse effects of copyrights on science. Using two alternative identification strategies, we show that weaker copyrights encouraged the creation of follow-on science, measured by citations.This change is driven by a reduction in access costs, allowing scientists at less affluent institutions to use existing knowledge in new follow-on research.

Previously: Effects of Copyrights on Science - Evidence from the US Book Republication Program
Barbara Biasi, Petra Moser. NBER Working Paper No. 24255, January 2018. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24255

Abstract: Copyrights for books, news, and other types of media are a critical mechanism to encourage creativity and innovation. Yet economic analyses continue to be rare, partly due to a lack of experimental variation in modern copyright laws. This paper exploits a change in copyright laws as a result of World War II to examine the effects of copyrights on science. In 1943, the US Book Republication Program (BRP) granted US publishers temporary licenses to republish the exact content of German-owned science books. Using new data on citations, we find that this program triggered a large increase in citations to German-owned science books. This increase was driven by a significant reduction in access costs: Each 10 percent decline in the price of BRP book was associated with a 43 percent increase in citations. To investigate the mechanism by which lower book prices influence science, we collect data on library holdings across the United States. We find that lower prices helped to distribute BRP books across US libraries, including less affluent institutions. Analyses of the locations of citing authors further indicate that citations increased most for locations that gained access to BRP books. Results are confirmed by two alternative measures of scientific output: new PhDs and US patents that use knowledge in BRP books.

Shifting the distribution of daily energy intake towards the breakfast meal may be a potential strategy to reduce overall energy intake and improve dietary intakes

Breakfast size is associated with daily energy intake and diet quality. Wenjie Wang et al. Nutrition, February 17 2020, 110764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nut.2020.110764

Highlights
• Consuming more energy at breakfast relative to daily energy intake was associated with better dietary profiles and lower daily energy intake in a large nutrition survey
• Those consuming more than 25.5% of energy at breakfast had higher diet quality scores but similar daily energy intakes than breakfast skippers
• Shifting the distribution of daily energy intake towards the breakfast meal may be a potential strategy to improve dietary intakes and reduce overall energy intake

Abstract
Objective  The aim of this study was to investigate the role of breakfast consumption and breakfast size on daily energy, nutrient intakes and diet quality.

Methods  One-day 24-hour recall data from 2011-12 National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey (n=9,341, adults ≥ 19 years) was analysed, where respondents were classified into breakfast consumers or skippers. Breakfast consumers were further classified into quartile of breakfast size (energy intake (EI) from breakfast x 100% / daily EI). Diet quality was assessed using the Healthy Eating Index for Australian Adults (HEIFA-2013). General linear modelling was undertaken to compare groups, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results  Overall, 85.9% of adults consumed breakfast, contributing a mean of 19.9 ± SD10.9% of daily EI for consumers. Among breakfast consumers, obtaining a higher proportion of daily EI from breakfast was associated with lower daily intakes of energy, added sugars, saturated fat and alcohol (%E) and higher intakes of dietary fibre (%E) and most micronutrients (per 1,000 kJ) and better HEIFA-2013 scores (Ptrend<0.0001). Additionally, those in the highest quartile of breakfast size (>25.5% EI) had higher diet quality scores (P <0.001) but similar daily EI (P =0.751) compared with breakfast skippers.

Conclusions  These findings indicate that obtaining a higher proportion of daily EI from breakfast may result in more favourable dietary profiles and lower daily EI. Further research is needed to confirm this.

Keywords: BreakfastMeal sizeEnergy intakeDiet qualityAdultsNutrition survey

Quiet rooms have a larger impact on patient satisfaction than medical quality; communication with nurses affects satisfaction far more than the hospital-level risk of dying, medical excellence or patient safety

Patients as Consumers in the Market for Medicine: The Halo Effect of Hospitality. Cristobal Young, Xinxiang Chen. Social Forces, soaa007, February 13 2020, https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soaa007

Abstract: Consumer-driven health care is often heralded as a new quality paradigm in medicine. However, patients-as-consumers face difficulties in judging the quality of their medical treatment. With a sample of 3,000 U.S. hospitals, we find that neither medical quality nor patient survival rates have much impact on patient satisfaction with their hospital. In contrast, patients are very sensitive to the “room and board” aspects of care that are highly visible. Quiet rooms have a larger impact on patient satisfaction than medical quality, and communication with nurses affects satisfaction far more than the hospital-level risk of dying. Hospitality experiences create a halo effect of patient goodwill, while medical excellence and patient safety do not. Moreover, when hospitals face greater competition from other hospitals, patient satisfaction is higher but medical quality is lower. Consumer-driven health care creates pressures for hospitals to be more like hotels. These findings lend broader insight into unintended consequences of marketization.


For many traits, males show greater variability than females; largest-ever mega-analysis of brain structure (international data spanning nine decades of life) shows greater male variability

Greater male than female variability in regional brain structure across the lifespan. Lara M Wierenga et al. bioRxiv, Feb 17 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.17.952010

Abstract: For many traits, males show greater variability than females, with possible implications for understanding sex differences in health and disease. Here, the ENIGMA (Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis) Consortium presents the largest-ever mega-analysis of sex differences in variability of brain structure, based on international data spanning nine decades of life. Subcortical volumes, cortical surface area and cortical thickness were assessed in MRI data of 16,683 healthy individuals 1-90 years old (47% females). We observed patterns of greater male than female between-subject variance for all brain measures. This pattern was stable across the lifespan for 50% of the subcortical structures, 70% of the regional area measures, and nearly all regions for thickness. Our findings that these sex differences are present in childhood implicate early life genetic or gene-environment interaction mechanisms. The findings highlight the importance of individual differences within the sexes, that may underpin sex-specific vulnerability to disorders.


Truth tellers reported more verifiable digital details & sources than liars; also provided more unverifiable detail than liars, which was not predicted & goes against the findings in previous studies

Fading lies: applying the verifiability approach after a period of delay. Louise Marie Jupe,Aldert Vrij,Sharon Leal & Galit Nahari. Psychology, Crime & Law, Sep 25 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/1068316X.2019.1669594

ABSTRACT: We tested the utility of applying the Verifiability Approach (VA) to witness statements after a period of delay. The delay factor is important to consider because interviewees are often not interviewed directly after witnessing an event. A total of 64 liars partook in a mock crime and then lied about it during an interview, seven days later. Truth tellers (n = 78) partook in activities of their own choosing and told the truth about it during their interview, seven days later. All participants were split into three groups, which provided three different verbal instructions relating to the interviewer’s aim to assess the statements for the inclusion of verifiable information: no information protocol (IP) (n = 43), the standard-IP (n = 46) and an enhanced-IP (n = 53). In addition to the standard VA approach of analysing verifiable details, we further examined verifiable witness information and verifiable digital information and made a distinction between verifiable details and verifiable sources. We found that truth tellers reported more verifiable digital details and sources than liars.

KEYWORDS: Deception, verifiability approach, investigative interviews, delay

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We also found that truth tellers provided more unverifiable detail than liars, which was not predicted and goes against the findings in previous studies. We are unable to explain these different findings in our experiment compared to previous work. It could be related to the delay, but to test this an immediate condition needs to be included in the design. One of our initial aims was to see if the VA was still applicable in delay conditions. We did not include an immediate condition as we did not expect significant differences between the immediate and delay conditions. With hindsight, an immediate condition should have been included.

China & South Korea: Drivers had a greater intention to bully automated vehicles than to bully humans; Chinese (vs Korean), male (vs female), & younger (vs older) had a greater intention to drive aggressively

Ready to bully automated vehicles on public roads? Peng Liu, Yong Du, Lin Wang, Da Young Ju. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 137, March 2020, 105457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105457

Highlights
• We designed an eleven-item bullying intention questionnaire.
• Participants in China and South Korea had a greater intention to bully AVs than to bully other human drivers.
• Chinese (vs. Korean) participants reported a greater intention to drive aggressively.
• Male (vs. female) participants reported a greater intention to drive aggressively.
• Younger (vs. older) participants reported a greater intention to drive aggressively.

Abstract: Automated vehicles (AVs), the wide adoption of which is expected to improve traffic safety significantly, are penetrating our roads. The AVs that are testing on public roads have been bullied by human road users. We are not sure whether the bullying incidents are isolated or will be common in the future. In a cross-national survey (N = 998 drivers in China and South Korea), we developed an eleven-item bullying intention questionnaire. We assumed and confirmed that, overall, participants had a greater intention to bully machine drivers than to bully other human drivers. Compared to the Korean participants, the Chinese participants reported a greater intention to drive aggressively. The correlations of their intention to bully AVs with their attitude toward AVs and with risk-benefit perception of AVs were weak. Male participants (vs. female participants) and younger participants (vs. older participants) reported a greater intention to drive aggressively. Drivers' aggressive behaviors toward AVs might be common in the future, which might increase traffic risk and hinder the implementation of this technology.

Keywords: automated vehiclesintention to bullymixed traffic flowbullying intention questionnaireaggressive driving



The unique contribution of blushing to the development of social anxiety disorder symptoms: results from a longitudinal study

The unique contribution of blushing to the development of social anxiety disorder symptoms: results from a longitudinal study. Milica Nikolić  Mirjana Majdandžić  Cristina Colonnesi  Wieke de Vente  Eline Möller  Susan Bögels. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, February 20 2020 https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.13221

Abstract
Background  Self‐conscious emotional reactivity and its physiological marker – blushing has been proposed to be an etiological mechanism of social anxiety disorder (SAD), but so far, untested in longitudinal designs. This study tested, for the first time, whether self‐conscious emotional reactivity (indexed as physiological blushing) contributes to the development of SAD symptoms over and above social behavioral inhibition (BI), which has been identified as the strongest predictor of SAD development in early childhood.

Methods  One hundred fifteen children (45% boys) and their mothers and fathers participated at ages 2.5, 4.5, and 7.5 years. Social BI was observed at all time points in a stranger approach task, and physiological blushing (blood volume, blood pulse amplitude, and temperature increases) was measured during a public performance (singing) and watching back the performance at ages 4.5 and 7.5. Child early social anxiety was reported by both parents at 4.5 years, and SAD symptoms were diagnosed by clinicians and reported by both parents at 7.5 years.

Results  Higher social BI at 2.5 and 4.5 years predicted greater social anxiety at 4.5 years, which, in turn, predicted SAD symptoms at 7.5 years. Blushing (temperature increase) at 4.5 years predicted SAD symptoms at 7.5 years over and above the influence of social BI and early social anxiety.

Conclusions  That blushing uniquely contributes to the development of SAD symptoms over and above social BI suggests two pathways to childhood SAD: one that entails early high social BI and an early onset of social anxiety symptoms, and the other that consists of heightened self‐conscious emotional reactivity (i.e. blushing) in early childhood.


Large beauty premium: Attractiveness & trustworthiness perception increased with makeup wearing; male trustors transferred more money to women with makeup; effect is larger for less attractive females

Is the beauty premium accessible to all? An experimental analysis. Angela Cristiane Santos Póvoa et al. Journal of Economic Psychology, February 21 2020, 102252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102252

Highlights
• There is a large beauty premium caused by makeup wearing.
• Both attractiveness and trustworthiness perception increased with makeup wearing.
• Makeup wearing increased transfers in the trust game.
• Male trustors transferred more money to women with makeup than female trustors did.
• The makeup effect is larger in magnitude for less attractive female trustees.

Abstract: We conducted a trust game experiment to investigate whether women are trusted more when they wear makeup than when they do not. Facial attractiveness, which was manipulated through the application of makeup by a professional makeup artist, was measured before and after makeovers. Trustors were shown a photograph of their female counterparts before they made decisions about money transfers to trustees. The results showed that wearing makeup increased perceived attractiveness, which in turn led trustors to make larger transfers to female trustees during the trust game. Additionally, we discovered a pure makeup premium that was mediated by gender. Specifically, female trustees with makeup received larger transfers than female trustees without makeup when the trustors were men, even after controlling for female trustees’ levels of attractiveness.

Keywords: trusttrust gamebeauty premiummakeupgender
Jel Code: C71 D003 C91



Older adults more strongly endorsed a nonlimited account of energy, which perceived as more available for social activities; also saw higher negative cross-domain energy spillover after physical exertion

Cardini, B. B., & Freund, A. M. (2020). More or less energy with age? A motivational life-span perspective on subjective energy, exhaustion, and opportunity costs. Psychology and Aging, Feb 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/pag0000445

Abstract: Two studies investigated subjective conceptualizations of energy for goal pursuit across adulthood. Study 1 (N = 276, 20–92 years of age) explored age-related differences in the (a) endorsement of a limited versus nonlimited account of energy for goal pursuit, (b) amount of energy available for physically, mentally, socially, and emotionally demanding activities, and (c) extent to which spending energy on a demanding activity inhibits or facilitates energy expenditure for subsequent activities, both within and across functional domains. Study 2 (N = 147, 18–86 years of age) experimentally induced energy loss through a 20-min physical exercise and examined age-related differences in the increase of subjective exhaustion and opportunity costs as a motivational cue for goal disengagement. With increasing age, adults more strongly endorsed a nonlimited account of energy and perceived having more energy available for personally relevant social activities. However, older adults also reported higher negative cross-domain energy spillover after physical exertion. Multilevel growth curve models further revealed that, compared with younger adults, older adults reported a steeper initial increase in exhaustion and opportunity costs during physical exercise, but converged with the younger age groups again at the close of the exercise session. The discussion centers around the importance of selectivity in older adulthood and motivational accounts of effort and exhaustion.



Athletic scholarships are negatively associated with intrinsic motivation for sports, even decades later: Evidence for long-term undermining

Moller, A. C., & Sheldon, K. M. (2020). Athletic scholarships are negatively associated with intrinsic motivation for sports, even decades later: Evidence for long-term undermining. Motivation Science, 6(1), 43–48, Feb 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/mot0000133

Abstract: In the United States, many colleges offer some student athletes scholarships contingent on maintaining high-level performance at a particular sport. Consistent with the well-supported “undermining effect,” studies have demonstrated that such scholarships can reduce athletes’ intrinsic motivation for their sport during their college playing career. The present study examines what happens to former college athletes’ intrinsic motivation after college, even decades later. Three hundred forty-eight former Division I college athletes completed an online survey (67.5% men, Mage = 49.2, 76% formerly on scholarship). Even after controlling for time elapsed since college, scholarship (vs. no scholarship) status was positively related to felt external motivation during college, and negatively related to present-day enjoyment of the target sport. Our findings suggest that undermining effects may persist much longer than previously documented (i.e., for decades, as opposed to hours, weeks, or months).


Friday, February 21, 2020

Can artificial intelligence, in particular, machine learning algorithms, replace the idea of simple rules, such as first possession and voluntary exchange in free markets, as a foundation for public policy?

Simple Rules for a Complex World with Artificial Intelligence. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde. , February 21, 2020. https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Simple_Rules_AI.pdf

Abstract: Can artificial intelligence, in particular, machine learning algorithms, replace the idea of simple rules, such as first possession and voluntary exchange in free markets, as a foundation for public policy? This paper argues that the preponderance of the evidence sides with the interpretation that while artificial intelligence will help public policy along with several important aspects, simple rules will remain the fundamental guideline for the design of institutions and legal environments. “Digital socialism” might be a hipster thing to talk about in Williamsburg or Shoreditch, but is as much of a chimera as “analog socialism.”

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, machine learning, economics, law, rule of law.
JEL codes: D85, H10, H30.

5 ML and central planning

Over the last few years, a few observers have made the bold prediction that, thanks to AI,
central planning is about to return (Saros, 2014, Wang and Li, 2017, Phillips and Rozworski,
2019, and Morozov, 2019). Some of these observers are rather prominent. For example, Jack
Ma, founder of Alibaba, stated in November 2016:
Over the past 100 years, we have come to believe that the market economy is
the best system, but in my opinion, there will be a significant change in the next
three decades, and the planned economy will become increasingly big. Why?
Because with access to all kinds of data, we may be able to find the invisible
hand of the market.
The planned economy I am talking about is not the same as the one used by
the Soviet Union or at the beginning of the founding of the People’s Republic of
China. The biggest difference between the market economy and planned economy
is that the former has the invisible hand of market forces. In the era of big data,
the abilities of human beings in obtaining and processing data are greater than
you can imagine.
With the help of artificial intelligence or multiple intelligence, our perception of
the world will be elevated to a new level. As such, big data will make the market
smarter and make it possible to plan and predict market forces so as to allow us
to finally achieve a planned economy.19
These proposals forget the final lesson of the socialist calculation debate, which came from Hayek (1945). The objections to central planning are not that solving the associated
optimization problem is extremely complex, which it is and increasingly so in an economy
with a maddening explosion of products, or that we need to gather the data and process it
sufficiently fast. If that were the case, AI and ML could perhaps solve the problem, if not
now, then in a few more iterations of Moore’s Law. The objections to central planning are that the information one needs to undertake is dispersed and, in the absence of a market
system, agents will never have the incentives to reveal it or even to create new information
through the entrepreneurial and innovative activity. As Steve Jobs put it: “A lot of times,
people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.”20
A simple, real-life application of central planning illustrates the point. Every year, the
department of economics at the University of Pennsylvania faces the challenge of setting up
a teaching matrix for the next academic year.21 Each member of the faculty submits her
preferences in terms of courses to be taught, day of week, time of day, etc. Given the teaching
needs and submitted requests, the computational burden of finding the optimal allocation
is quite manageable. We have around 32 faculty members and, once you consider that the
average member of the theory group will never request to teach econometrics and vice versa,
the permutations to consider are limited. A few hours in front of Excel deliver the answer:
it seems that the central teaching planner at Penn Economics can do her job.
The real challenge is that, when I submit my teaching requests, I do not have an incentive
to reveal the truth about my preferences or to think too hard about developing a new course
that students might enjoy. I might not mind too much teaching a large undergraduate
session on a brand-new hot topic and, if I am a good instructor, the students will be better
off. However, I will not be compensated for the extra effort, even if it is not high, and I will
have an incentive to request a small section for advanced undergrads on an old-fashioned
topic. This request is not optimal: if the Dean could, for instance, pay me an extra stipend,
I would teach the large, innovative section, the students would be happier, and I would be
wealthier.22
An obvious solution would be, then, not to submit a teaching request, but a schedule of
teaching requests and a supply curve to do so, i.e., I will teach “the economics of big data”
at 9.00 am on Mondays and Wednesdays at price x or “advanced monetary theory” at 1.00
pm on Tuesdays and Wednesdays at price 0.4x. The central teaching planner will use the
supply curves to clear the teaching market and assign a faculty member to each course. This
new scheme would increase the computational challenge of setting up the teaching matrix
by one order of magnitude, but I can still write a short Julia program that will deliver an answer in a few minutes.
The drawback is that such a system of teaching requests and supply curves would open
the door to all sorts of strategic behavior: I will consider, when I submit my supply curve,
what I know about my colleagues’ tastes regarding teaching large, innovative courses. If I
believe they genuinely dislike doing so, I will communicate a higher supply curve to teach
such courses in order to clear the market at a higher price and increase my revenue. The
outcome of the teaching matrix will not be efficient because I am not telling the truth, but
playing strategically.
We can push the argument further. Knowing that the department will assign duties
using a teaching request and a supply curve, I can manipulate from the day I am hired how
I behave in front of my colleagues and the teaching requests and supply curves I submit. In
such a way, I can introduce noise in their signal about my teaching preferences and exploit
their incorrect inferences about my type when I submit my teaching requests and supply
curve in the future. My colleagues would know that and act accordingly, changing their
supply curve to reflect that they understand I tried to manipulate them. But I would also
know my colleagues know that and I will respond appropriately, and so on and so forth for
one iteration after another. Those who do not believe the faculty would behave in such a
way have not had experience managing academic departments.23
There is an additional problem. Once I am assigned a course, how does Penn ensure
I teach it at the “optimal” quality level? Note that “optimal” cannot mean the highest
possible quality. If I were to prepare every lecture that I give as a job market talk at
my dream department, the current students would love it, but I would not have time to
undertake research, and my future students would get worse lectures, since my knowledge of
the field would depreciate as I fall behind the frontier.
Even forgetting about that intertemporal aspect, how do we trade off one extra minute of
research (which increases Penn’s visibility and reputation) with one extra minute of teaching
preparation?24 And how do we address heterogeneity in the comparative ability between
research and teaching among faculty members when both efforts into each activity are, to a
large extent, unobservable?
Finally, we face the friction that I can carry my research with me to my next job (i.e., the
publications in my C.V.) much more easily than my teaching evaluations (i.e., I can always
“lose” the terrible teaching evaluation I got 15 years ago and nobody will be the wiser; after
all, most recruiting committees only ask for the most recent evaluations). Also, once I get
over some threshold of minimum quality in the teaching evaluations, nobody will pay much
attention to an extra half point. Thus, I have an incentive to teach a course that is below
the socially-optimal quality.
ML will never fix the problem of how to determine the teaching matrix at Penn Economics and to induce the “optimal” quality of the course. The problem was never about computing an optimal solution to teaching assignments given some data. The problem is, and will always be, determining the preferences, abilities, and effort of the faculty in a world where everyone has an incentive to misrepresent those preferences, abilities, and effort.
The only reliable method we have found to aggregate those preferences, abilities, and efforts is the market because it aligns, through the price system, incentives with information revelation. The method is not perfect, and the outcomes that come from it are often unsatisfactory. Nevertheless, like democracy, all the other alternatives, including “digital socialism,” are worse.25

The Neurology of Acquired Pedophilia: Twenty-two cases fit our inclusion criteria, all but one were men, and in only one case the injury was localized to the left hemisphere; 18 were hypersexualized

The Neurology of Acquired Pedophilia. Pedro Maranhão Gomes Lopes et al. The Neural Basis of Cognition, Feb 20 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/13554794.2020.1727929

ABSTRACT: The clinicoanatomic cases of acquired pedophilia that have been published in the medical and forensic literature up to 2019 are reviewed. Twenty-two cases fit our inclusion criteria. All but one were men, and in only one case the injury was localized to the left hemisphere. Hypersexuality was present in 18 cases. The damaged areas fell within the frontotemporoinsular cortices and related subcortical nuclei; however, the anterior hypothalamus was spared. Damage to parts of the right frontotemporoinsular lobes with sparing of the anterior hypothalamus seems to be critical for the emergence of acquired pedophilia.

KEYWORDS: Acquired pedophilia, acquired sociopathy, frontotemporoinsular cortices, medial forebrain bundle, hypersexuality, perifornical region



Online sexually explicit material appeared to have a negligible role in individuals’ current sexual functioning and mental well-being

A lack of association between online pornography exposure, sexual functioning, and mental well-being. Ruth Chari et al. Sexual and Relationship Therapy, Feb 20 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/14681994.2020.1727874

Abstract: To inform debate around potential influences of online pornography, we applied a contemporary media-effects model to examine the relationship between online sexually explicit material (oSEM) exposure and several psychosocial outcomes – including sexual satisfaction, body satisfaction, sexist attitudes, and mental well-being. Perceived realism of oSEM (the extent to which it is believed to be a realistic portrayal of sexual experience) was assessed as a potential mediator of exposure-outcome relationships. Furthermore, family communication about sex and gender were investigated as potential moderators of any indirect relationships (via perceived realism). Using a convenience sample of cisgender, heterosexual adults (N = 252) and a cross-sectional questionnaire design, we found no significant direct or indirect relationships between oSEM-use and the psychosocial outcomes in question; equivalence testing demonstrated that (for all outcomes other than body satisfaction) we could reject effect sizes (rs) > ±.20. Overall, findings do not favour a negative or positive relationship between oSEM and the psychosocial outcomes under examination – oSEM appeared to have a negligible role in individuals’ current sexual functioning and mental well-being.

Keywords: Pornography, sexuality, media effects, perceived realism, family communication, online


Randomly assigned confederates or participants to act extraverted or introverted; interaction partners showed more positive social behaviors with extraverted actors

Does acting extraverted evoke positive social feedback? Mariya Davydenko et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 159, 1 June 2020, 109883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.109883

Highlights
•    Randomly assigned confederates or participants to act extraverted or introverted.
•    Interaction partners showed more positive social behaviors with extraverted actors.
•    Behaviors were rated by the participant, confederate, and an observer.
•    Extraverted behavior has the potential to evoke positive social feedback in others.

Abstract: Personality traits describe average tendencies, yet momentary behaviors in trait domains vary widely. Notably, both dispositional introverts and extraverts experience greater positive affect when behaving in extraverted ways. We test a potential explanation: extraverted behavior may evoke more positive social feedback from others. In Study 1, participants who were randomly assigned to interact with confederates who acted extraverted (vs. introverted) displayed more positive verbal and nonverbal social behaviors during interactions. Behaviors were rated by the participant, confederate, and an observer (via video). Study 2 reversed roles; neutral confederates who interacted with participants who were randomly assigned to act extraverted (vs. introverted) displayed more positive social behaviors. This research extends previous findings by examining how enacted extraversion influences interaction dynamics.








Dark personality features were positively associated with competitive worldviews; sometimes had indirect associations with social dominance orientation through competitive worldviews, but not with right-wing authoritarianism

The darker angels of our nature: Do social worldviews mediate the associations that dark personality features have with ideological attitudes? Virgil Zeigler-Hill et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 160, 1 July 2020, 109920. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.109920

Highlights
•    Dark personality features were positively associated with competitive worldviews.
•    Dark personality features sometimes had indirect associations with SDO through competitive worldviews.
•    Dark personality features had, at best, weak associations with dangerous worldviews.

Abstract: The present studies examined the associations that narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, sadism, and spitefulness had with the competitive and dangerous social worldviews as well as the possibility that these worldviews may explain, at least in part, the associations that these dark personality features had with the ideological attitudes of social dominance orientation (SDO) and right-wing authoritarianism (RWA). Across three studies (N = 2,103), we found the dark personality features to be positively associated with the competitive social worldview in Studies 1 and 3 but these associations were much weaker in Study 2. Narcissism, psychopathy, and spitefulness had indirect associations with the dominance and anti-egalitarianism aspects of SDO through the competitive social worldview in Study 3 but not in Study 2. In contrast, the dark personality features had, at best, weak associations with the dangerous social worldview as well as divergent associations with aspects of RWA. More specifically, narcissism and spitefulness were positively associated with aspects of RWA but psychopathy was negatively associated with RWA. Discussion focuses on the role that social worldviews – especially perceptions of the world as being a highly competitive environment – may play in the connections that dark personality features have with various outcomes including ideological attitudes.





Thursday, February 20, 2020

We got psychological defenses against manipulation, also in politics; demagogues and disinformation can be explained as tools for achieving coordination of those predisposed for conflict rather than manipulated into conflict

The Evolutionary Psychology of Mass Mobilization: How Disinformation and Demagogues Coordinate Rather Than Manipulate. Michael Bang Petersen. Current Opinion in Psychology, February 20 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.02.003

Highlights
•    Violent mobilization is often attributed to manipulation from, for example, demagogues.
•    The human mind contains psychological defenses against manipulation, also in politics.
•    Mass mobilization requires that the attention of group members is coordinated.
•    Demagogues and disinformation can be explained as tools for achieving coordination.
•    Mobilized individuals are predisposed for conflict rather than manipulated into conflict.

Abstract: Large-scale mobilization is often accompanied by the emergence of demagogic leaders and the circulation of unverified rumors, especially if the mobilization happens in support of violent or disruptive projects. In those circumstances, researchers and commentators frequently explain the mobilization as a result of mass manipulation. Against this view, evolutionary psychologists have provided evidence that human psychology contains mechanisms for avoiding manipulation and new studies suggest that political manipulation attempts are, in general, ineffective. Instead, we can understand decisions to follow demagogic leaders and circulate fringe rumors as attempts to solve a social problem inherent to mobilization processes: The coordination problem. Essentially, these decisions reflect attempts to align the attention of individuals already disposed for conflict.



From 2012... Japanese herbivore men: Heterosexual men 20-34 who lack ambition, engage in feminine consumption practices, & shirk relationships with the opposite sex; instead of corporate careers, they prefer lower paying, less demanding jobs

The Rise of 草食系男子 (Soushokukei Danshi) Masculinity and Consumption in Contemporary Japan: A Historic and Discursive Analysis. Steven Chen. In book: Gender, Culture and Consumption. Cele Otnes, Linda Zayer (eds.). January 2012. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307108482

Abstract: In Soushoku Danshi Sedai Heisei Danshi Zukan (Handbook of Man in the Heisei Period), Maki Fukasawa (2009) coins the term soushokukei danshi (“grass-eating type men” or “herbivore men”) to describe heterosexual Japanese men who lack ambition, engage in feminine consumption practices, and shirk relationships with the opposite sex. Typically young men between the ages of 20 and 34, soushokukei danshi are less status conscious than men from previous generations; rather than pursue corporate careers, they prefer lower paying, less demanding jobs. A key marker of soushokukei danshi is their feminized consumption practices, which include shopping, beautification practices, and fine dining. Rather than pursue relationships with women, they prefer being alone playing video games and surfing the Internet. As a result of their consumption practices, the popular media labels them “girly men” or “ladylike.” Soushokukei danshi are not social deviants, but rather an emergent form of Japanese masculinity. In Japan, aggressive masculinities embodied by the salaryman and nikushokukei danshi (“meat-eating type men” or “carnivore men”) represent masculine ideals, but a shift in masculine values is under way (Dasgupta, 2009). According to a 2009 study conducted by M1 F1 Soken, a marketing research firm, 60% of unmarried Japanese men between the ages of 20 and 34 identify themselves as soushokukei danshi. The finding that many Japanese men associate themselves with “feminized” masculinity is notable in a society that was once considered the most masculine in the world.

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Soushokukei danshi consumption practices echo those of Western metrosexuals (Rinallo, 2007; Simpson, 2002; Tuncay, 2006; Tuncay & Otnes, 2008b). They are fashion conscious and sport ensembles that are considered feminine by Japanese society, such as tight pants with long flowing shirts. They are also concerned with their body and engage in beautification practices such as slimming treatments, day spas, facials, and eyebrow grooming practices (Miller, 2003). Other consumption practices include shopping, taking leisurely walks, and eating fine desserts. In everyday parlance, soushokukei danshi consumption is feminine because beautification and shopping are activities that are traditionally gendered female (Davis, 2003; Otnes & McGrath, 2001; Roberts, 1998).

Soushokukei danshi exhibit a weak career orientation. Many contemporary Japanese men reject traditional masculine ideals of elite education, high income, and physical stature (Roberson & Suzuki, 2003). Rather than pursuing upward social mobility through an intense work ethic, they prefer comfortable lifestyles, which allow time for hedonic pursuits. Aphorisms like “life is short” and “doing okay is okay” drive their life philosophies. But there is a trade-off. To maximize their leisure time, many soushokukei danshi select jobs with lower salaries.

Soushokukei danshi are heterosexual men, but are purportedly uninterested in relationships with the opposite sex (Fukasawa, 2009). However, soushokukei danshi’s inability to sustain long-term, sexual relationships is more likely a result of their low income than their purported lack of interest in sex. Spa!, a Japanese marketing firm, surveyed men between the ages of 25 and 39 who earned less than 2 million yen (roughly $24,000) a year, a benchmark for classifying the “working poor,” and found that 65% of men in this bracket are discontent with their sex lives, 19.3% have given up on sex, and 20% are still virgins. The video game company Konami finds that 20% of men surveyed expressed interest in dating a female video game character. There are now a variety of love simulation games, such as Love Plus, which allow players to date video game avatars.


Sex differences in familiarity and valence were found for 70 iOS smiley emojis; women reported greater overall use of emojis and had higher familiarity ratings, & rated the negative emojis as more negative than did the men

Sex differences in emoji use, familiarity, and valence. Lara L. Jones et al. Computers in Human Behavior, February 20 2020, 106305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2020.106305

Highlights
•    Sex differences in familiarity and valence were found for 70 iOS smiley emojis.
•    Women reported greater overall use of emojis and had higher familiarity ratings.
•    Women rated the negative emojis as more negative than did the men.
•    No sex differences in valence judgments were found for the positive emojis.

Abstract: Emojis (particularly smiley emojis, ☺) are increasingly used in computer-mediated communication as well as in applied domains within marketing, healthcare, and psychology. The emotional negativity bias in the facial emotion processing literature posits that women are more sensitive to negative facial emotion than are men. Given the similarity in neural processing between human faces and smiley emojis, women may likewise view negative smiley emojis as more negative than do men. Moreover, the familiarity of the emoji and the participants' overall emoji use may increase the positivity of the emoji. To investigate these potential influences of sex, familiarity, and emoji use on the valence of smiley emojis, we assessed the familiarity and the perceived valence for 70 iOS facial emojis in a large sample (N = 299; 163 women) of United States college students (Mage = 19.66, SDage = 2.72). Results indicated higher emoji usage and familiarity ratings for women than for men. In assessing valence we found higher overall positive ratings for men than for women. Consistent with the emotional negativity bias, this sex difference was limited to the negative smiley emojis with no sex difference in valence for the positive emojis. The obtained sex differences in smiley emojis’ use, familiarity, and valence are an important consideration in the selection of such stimuli in future studies.

Environmental enrichment (EE) reduces sucrose seeking and taking by rats; both overnight (acute) and one month (chronic) EE reduce sucrose seeking and taking

Environmental enrichment reduces food seeking and taking in rats: A review. Jeffrey W. Grimm, Frances Sauter. Pharmacology Biochemistry and Behavior, February 19 2020, 172874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pbb.2020.172874

Highlights
•    Environmental enrichment (EE) reduces sucrose seeking and taking by rats.
•    Both overnight (acute) and one month (chronic) EE reduce sucrose seeking and taking.
•    Effects persist for over 8 h within-session and over 48 h between-sessions.
•    EE may alter dopamine signaling in meso-cortico-limbic terminals.
•    EE may affect processing of incentive valence.

Abstract: Environmental enrichment (EE) for rodents is generally defined as providing subjects with an environment enhanced with access to conspecifics, novel and tactile stimuli, and in many preparations, more space. EE exposure, in particular as an “intervention” in adult rodents, decreases food and drug seeking and taking. This review focuses on the reduction of sucrose seeking and taking in rats assessed in operant-based procedures. The operant-based model provides a means to evaluate addiction-related behaviors. Findings using the model might translate to clinically-relevant addiction behaviors directed towards both drugs and food. Both overnight (acute) and one month (chronic) EE effects on behavior are described, including a recent evaluation of the persistence of EE effects following its removal. EE effects on neurobiology related to sucrose seeking using the model are outlined, with a special emphasis on meso-cortico-limbic terminals. Overall, our working hypothesis for how EE reduces sucrose seeking and taking is that EE alters processing of incentive valence. This may also be accompanied by changes in learning and affect. Anti-seeking and anti-taking effects of EE have translational implications for the prevention and treatment of both drug addiction and food-focused behaviors (“food addiction”).

Too much of a good thing? Excessive technology use is not uniquely harmful to mental health; additionally, the negative effects of excessive technology use on psychopathology are partly explained by self-criticism

Zendle, David. 2020. “Too Much of a Good Thing? Excessive Use Across Behaviours and Associations with Mental Health.” PsyArXiv. February 19. doi:10.31234/osf.io/pnx2e

Abstract
Background and Aims: The case for the existence of pathological video game and social media use is often supported by two arguments. First, that excessive usage of these technologies is particularly associated with psychopathological conditions such as depression and anxiety. Second, that specific features of these technologies make them particularly likely to be used to excess. However, it is presently unclear whether this is the case.

Design: Two large scale online surveys were conducted on representative samples of UK adults. The first (n=1430) investigated correlations between psychopathology and excessive engagement in a variety of common leisure pursuits including video gaming and social media use. The second (n=1184) examined whether video games and social media were more likely to be engaged in to excess than other common pursuits.

Sample Studied: Two nationally representative samples of UK adults aged 18+ were recruited via prolific.co, an online panel provider.

Measurements: Excessive engagement in a variety of activities were measured via adaptations of the Internet Gaming Disorder Scale. Depression and anxiety were measured via administration of the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 respectively.

Findings: Excessive engagement in all measured activities was linked to both depression and anxiety. All relationships were of a clinically important magnitude. Using IGD criteria, excessive gaming was more prevalent than excessive engagement in other leisure pursuits. It is unclear whether this reflects actual differences in excessive use or limitations of the IGD symptoms. Relationships remained significant when self-criticism was accounted for, but were reduced in magnitude to potentially sub-clinical levels. 

Conclusions:  Links to psychopathology were similar across a wide variety of activities, suggesting that excessive technology use is not uniquely harmful to mental health. Additionally, the negative effects of excessive technology use on psychopathology are partly explained by self-criticism, highlighting the importance of this factor in the future measurement of behavioural overuse conditions.  Using IGD criteria, excessive gaming is more prevalent than excessive engagement in other activities, which may reflect either the special nature of games, or problems with the IGD criteria.



Both helpers and recipients reported that the benefits of help outweighed the costs (i.e., the help was non-zero-sum); helpers underestimated the degree to which recipients felt indebted as a result of receiving help

Helping behavior is non-zero-sum: Helper and recipient autobiographical accounts of help. Michael R. Ent et al. Evolution and Human Behavior, February 19 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2020.02.004

Abstract: In three studies (n = 427), participants wrote and answered questions about autobiographical episodes involving helping behavior from the perspective of the helper vs. the recipient. Both helpers and recipients reported that the benefits of help outweighed the costs (i.e., the help was non-zero-sum). Helpers underestimated the degree to which recipients felt indebted as a result of receiving help. Recipients displayed a pattern of language use indicative of self-focus to a greater extent than helpers. These effects were found whether helpers and recipients reflected on the same helping episode (Study 1) or different episodes (Studies 2 and 3). People who recalled helping strangers reported that the benefits outweighed the costs to a greater extent than those who recalled helping friends or family members (Study 3), largely because the costs were greater when helping friends and family.


Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Decreasing use of counting & increasing use of direct retrieval & derived facts through years 1–4, girls using counting substantially more and the other two strategies substantially less than boys

Sex differences in mental strategies for single-digit addition in the first years of school. Pernille B. Sunde, Peter Sunde & Judy Sayers. Educational Psychology, An International Journal of Experimental Educational Psychology. Volume 40, 2020 - Issue 1, Pages 82-102. https://doi.org/10.1080/01443410.2019.1622652

Abstract: Strategy use in single-digit addition is an indicator of young children’s numeracy comprehension. We investigated Danish primary students’ use of strategies in single-digit addition with interview-based assessment of how they solved 36 specific single-digit addition problems, categorised as either ‘error’, ‘counting’, ‘direct retrieval’ or ‘derived facts’. The proportional use of each strategy was analysed as multi-level functions of school age and sex. In a first study (260 interviews, 147 students) we found decreasing use of counting and increasing use of direct retrieval and derived facts through years 1–4, girls using counting substantially more and the other two strategies substantially less than boys, equal to more than 2 years’ development. Similar results appeared in a subsequent study (155 interviews, 83 students), suggesting that the pattern is pervasive in Danish primary schools. Finally, we ask whether sex differences in strategy use is generally under-reported since many studies do not explicitly address them.

Keywords: Sex differences, single-digit addition, strategies, years 1–4, mathematics

Implications
The marked sex-difference in development of strategy may have implications for research as well as teaching practice. Regarding research of variation and development of strategy use, our results suggest that sex may be a significant component of variation that should not only be tested for (or neutralised by balanced study designs), but incorporated in the statistical analyses instead of appearing as apparent statistical background noise. Sex differences in strategy use (or any other behaviour or skill) may also be of interest in its own right in order to identify differences between boys and girls in a given age or cultural context. For teaching practice, knowledge of the existence of substantial variation in different students’ development of strategy use, much of which connecting to the individual’s sex may also be of importance. For instance, students who overly rely on counting in single-digit problem solving (of which girls are overrepresented) may need explicit teaching and encouragement to memorise number facts and patterns in number bonds. Thus, if instruction in the early years of school focus on counting strategies and procedural knowledge in the teaching of arithmetic this would disadvantage the girls as they are more prone to construct narrow knowledge and rely on the taught algorithms (Hornburg et al., 2017). Furthermore, Laski et al. (2013) points out that girls’ persistent counting provide them with fewer opportunities to practice derived fact strategies and retrieval and that might lead to girls’ poorer accuracy in these strategies. Considering the findings of this study, it would be relevant to investigate the effects of different aspects of instructional practices on sex specific development of strategies in arithmetic in the early years. For example, boys are known to be more willing to take risks in a competitive environment and it could be that teaching promoting a competitive learning environment may be more beneficial for boys, whereas girls might experience a reinforcement of the feedback loop (Bailey et al., 2012).

Conclusion and perspectives
We have shown the existence of considerable specific sex differences in one of the foundational aspects of teaching number in the early years arithmetic, in the very first years of formal Danish schooling. Considering the lack of research on the learning and development of number and arithmetic in the early years of school in Denmark, as well as early sex differences, we find that it is important that these findings are reported. The reasons behind these sex differences, equalling 2–3 year’s, remain to be explicated. No matter the reasons behind these sex differences, their sheer magnitude in this as well as in at least one previous study (Bailey et al., 2012) may suggest that sex differences and their underlying causes deserves more attention than appear to be standard in most studies of arithmetic in early years of school. Although a systematic review of the extent to which the presence and magnitude of sex differences in arithmetic research is beyond the scope of this paper, it seems that sex differences are sometimes not quantified in research papers, which means that sex differences in arithmetic patterns possibly could be underreported. The occurrence of differences in arithmetic patterns between boys and girls may be considered politically sensitive and vulnerable to partisan misinterpretations, but this does not change the fact that they sometimes exist and should be investigated, quantified and explained as any other predictor variable in education research. Knowledge on how individual differences and sociocultural factors interact to produce the resulting sex differences might thus prove useful to inform targeted teaching and educational practice that ‘decrease’ rather than unintentionally enhance sex differences no matter what have caused them.

Lassitude: Reducing energetically expensive movement to make more energy available to the immune system, reducing exposure to additional infections and injuries, deploying strategies that elicit caregiving behavior from social allies

Lassitude: The emotion of being sick. Joshua M. Schrock, J. Josh Snodgrass, Lawrence S. Sugiyama. Evolution and Human Behavior, Volume 41, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2019.09.002

Abstract: Our long co-evolutionary history with infectious agents likely began soon after the rise of the first single-celled organisms. This ongoing evolutionary arms race has generated complex host adaptations, many highly conserved, for resisting infection (e.g., innate and acquired immune systems, infection-sensitive developmental programs, sexual reproduction). A large body of evidence suggests that, in humans, pathogen-avoidance disgust is an emotion that motivates avoidance of cues associated with pathogens, thereby reducing infection. However, the question of whether there is an emotion that coordinates resistance to active infection has received less attention. We propose that lassitude is such an emotion. It is triggered by cues of active infection and coordinates the fight against infection by: (a) reducing energetically expensive movement to make more energy available to the immune system, (b) reducing exposure to additional infections and injuries that would compound the immune system's workload, (c) promoting thermoregulatory behaviors that facilitate immunity, (d) regulating food consumption to be beneficial for the host but detrimental to pathogens, and (e) deploying strategies that elicit caregiving behavior from social allies. Lassitude exhibits the core features of an emotion – it is triggered by cues of an adaptive problem (i.e., infection), generates a characteristic facial expression (e.g., slack facial muscles, drooping eyelids, slightly parted lips), and has distinct qualia (e.g., profound tiredness, reduced appetite, feelings of vulnerability, altered temperature perception, increased pain sensitivity). We outline the information-processing structure of lassitude, review existing evidence, suggest directions for future research, and discuss implications of lassitude for models of human evolution.


5. Lassitude: a new emotion?

Our approach to characterizing lassitude is informed by Tooby and Cosmides' framework: “[the emotions] are the neurocomputational adaptations that have evolved in response to the adaptive problem of matching arrays of mechanism activation to the specific adaptive demands imposed by alternative situations” (Tooby & Cosmides, 2008, p. 117). Lassitude satisfies this definition of an emotion. It is a coordinating system that functions to orchestrate various mechanisms to solve the adaptive problem of fighting infectious disease.
Other theoretical approaches emphasize the distinctive facial expression and qualia of an emotion (Ekman & Oster, 1979; Frijda, 2005). We propose that lassitude has a distinctive facial expression generated by less muscle tension relative to a neutral facial expression (i.e., slack facial muscles). In particular, it consists of a long crown-to-chin length, drooping eyelids, and slightly parted lips. A recent study showed participants pictures of faces of people who had been injected with LPS or with placebo (Axelsson et al., 2018). Participants correctly identified the faces of sick people at a higher rate than chance, even though individuals in the photos were instructed to exhibit a neutral facial expression, which may have resulted in partial masking of the facial expression of lassitude. The faces of sick people were rated as having droopy corners of the mouth, having hanging eyelids, looking more tired, having redder eyes, and having paler, puffier skin. We propose that lassitude also has distinct qualia – profound tiredness, greater relative preference for close social allies, reduced overall appetite but stronger relative preference for particular food items, greater feelings of vulnerability, increased pain sensitivity, greater susceptibility to nausea, and altered perceptions of ambient temperature. Not all of these qualia are present in all cases of infection – the presence of each component depends on context-sensitive regulation of the underlying motivational system.
Panksepp's account of basic emotions emphasizes universality across species of mammals and conserved neural circuitry (Panksepp, 1982). Lassitude involves specific immune and neural signaling pathways that have been mapped with increasing thoroughness in animal models (McCusker & Kelley, 2013). Lassitude-like regulatory states exist not only in mammals but also birds (Owen-Ashley & Wingfield, 2007), amphibians (Llewellyn et al., 2011), and possibly even fish (Kirsten, Fior, Kreutz, & Barcellos, 2018).
Based on the criteria discussed here, lassitude is an emotion, albeit one that has gone unrecognized. It is worth noting that there are at least two ways in which our account of lassitude is not novel. First, Tooby and Cosmides hypothesized that malaise during infection might be an evolved emotion but did not elaborate (Tooby & Cosmides, 2008). Second, scholars who study sickness behavior, focusing mostly on non-humans, have proposed that many infection-induced behavioral changes are evolutionarily adaptive (Adelman & Martin, 2009; Hart, 1990). However, the sickness behavior literature largely focuses on the description of infection-related behavior and its physiological mechanisms. It has largely neglected to characterize the evolutionary background, information-processing structure, and functional logic of the regulatory system that generates sickness behavior.

6. Directions for future research

6.1. Social support and immunity

Humans provide care to social allies during illness and injury (see section 2.2.5). This is an important buffer against the opportunity costs of reducing movement when sick. A compelling hypothesis to explain the placebo effect is that one function of visible illness symptoms is to elicit care from others (Steinkopf, 2015). When others provide care, the signaling function of the symptoms is fulfilled and the symptoms become less severe (ibid). We predict that cues of social support (or a lack thereof) are also key inputs for modulating the regulation of lassitude during infection. Infected individuals who are socially isolated may be unable to afford to devote as much energy to fighting infection, and may therefore experience longer-lasting infections and higher mortality risks. In support of this hypothesis, there is evidence to suggest that those who are socially isolated tend to suffer from poorer health (Cacioppo & Cacioppo, 2014).

6.2. Lassitude in healthcare settings

We hypothesize that cues of infection increase the relative preference for contact with social allies. Furthermore, we propose that sick individuals boost signals of vulnerability when in the presence of social allies (in order to elicit care) and mask signals of vulnerability in front of strangers and antagonists (in order to reduce the risk of social and physical danger during the vulnerable state of sickness). This suggests that the degree to which a patient sees a healthcare provider as a social ally may have a major influence on a patient's decision to pursue care, and ability to elicit it.
Patients who do not see providers as social allies may be less likely to seek healthcare, and when they do, may have greater difficulty eliciting useful care, due to the fact that they are (perhaps inadvertently) masking signals of vulnerability. This may help explain why many patients highly value good “bedside manner” in healthcare providers (Thompson & Anderson, 1982).

6.3. Lassitude and chronic disease

There is evidence to suggest that chronic diseases (e.g., heart disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder) may activate a response that resembles a chronic version of lassitude (Swain, 2000). This may be due, in part, to the fact that chronic somatic damage activates some of the same pro-inflammatory immune pathways that trigger lassitude during infection (Del Giudice & Gangestad, 2018; McCusker & Kelley, 2013). This poses a problem because one of most effective interventions for preventing and treating chronic disease is to engage in healthy levels of physical activity (Warburton, Nicol, & Bredin, 2006). The motivational state of lassitude directly opposes this goal. Thus, even sub-clinical levels of chronic morbidity may trigger a vicious, self-reinforcing cycle in which greater chronic morbidity leads to greater lassitude, and greater lassitude leads to even greater chronic morbidity. This cycle may help explain why chronic disease epidemics emerge when populations transition to economic sectors with a greater proportion of sedentary occupations (Omran, 2005).

6.4. Lassitude in relation to time, reward, and risk preferences

We hypothesize that lassitude modifies the cost-benefit structure of a wide range of decisions. Individuals in a state of lassitude place a lower value on some types of rewards (e.g., food, sex). Higher levels of lassitude may therefore generate a greater willingness to delay some kinds of payoffs in temporal discounting scenarios (Green, Myerson, & Mcfadden, 1997). We also propose that individuals in a state of lassitude place a greater value on avoiding social and physical risks. Thus, lassitude may induce greater risk aversion when the risks are social or physical. On the other hand, lassitude may induce less aversion to the risk of losing a potential payoff that has lower value during lassitude (e.g., food, sex). Researchers who study time-, reward-, and risk-related decision-making should therefore consider incorporating lassitude into their studies and theoretical models.

6.5. Approach-avoidance conflict

The fact that humans systematically help social allies during illness suggests that we have cognitive mechanisms for detecting signs of illness in others and deciding how to respond. The occurence of illness in a social conspecific poses a potential motivational conflict. On one hand, helping the sick individual may induce the target of aid to reciprocate in the future, when the roles are reversed (Gurven et al., 2000; Sugiyama, 2004; Sugiyama & Chacon, 2000). Furthermore, helping sick individuals provides a costly signal of the helper's quality as a social ally (Steinkopf, 2015). On the other hand, the effort required for providing aid is costly, and providing aid to a sick person may increase the helper's risk of getting sick (Tybur et al., 2012). Thus, navigating the motivational conflict between approaching a sick individual (to help them) and avoiding them (to reduce infection risk) is an important adaptive problem for humans. Variables that influence the decision to help or avoid a sick person may include the relationship/kinship of the sick person to the helper, the sick person's reputation as a reciprocator, the helper's vulnerability to illness, and the social audience that would be aware of the helping behavior.

Sexting is a common behavior among emerging adults (18-29 y.o.); the prevalence of non-consensual forwarding of sexts was also frequent in emerging adults (15.0%)

The Prevalence of Sexting Behaviors Among Emerging Adults: A Meta-Analysis. Camille Mori, Jessica E. Cooke, Jeff R. Temple, Anh Ly, Yu Lu, Nina Anderson, Christina Rash & Sheri Madigan. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Feb 18 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01656-4

Abstract: Sexting is the sharing of sexually explicit images, videos, and/or messages via electronic devices. Prevalence estimates of sexting have varied substantially, potentially due to broad age ranges being examined. The current study sought to synthesize relevant findings examining the prevalence of consensual and non-consensual sexting in a specific developmental period, emerging adulthood (≥ 18–< 29), to try to explain discrepancies in the literature. Searches were conducted in electronic databases for articles published up to April 2018. Relevant data from 50 studies with 18,122 emerging adults were extracted. The prevalence of sexting behaviors were: sending 38.3% (k = 41; CI 32.0–44.6), receiving 41.5% (k = 19; CI 31.9–51.2), and reciprocal sexting 47.7% (k = 16; CI 37.6–57.8). Thus, sexting is a common behavior among emerging adults. The prevalence of non-consensual forwarding of sexts was also frequent in emerging adults at 15.0% (k = 7; CI 6.9–23.2). Educational awareness initiatives on digital citizenship and psychological consequences of the non-consensual forwarding of sexts should be targeted to youth and emerging adults with the hopes of mitigating this potentially damaging and illegal behavior.



Proust had the intuition that olfactory stimuli are very powerful to recall old episodic memories; olfactory function & memory rapidly decline with age; he didn't know that in addition to remembering the past, memory is used to predict the future

Did Proust predict the existence of episodic memory? Michel Baudry. Neurobiology of Learning and Memory, February 19 2020, 107191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nlm.2020.107191

Highlights
•    Proust had the intuition that olfactory stimuli are very powerful to recall old episodic memories.
•    Olfactory function and memory rapidly decline with age.
•    The hippocampus, in addition to place cells, has odor cells.
•    In addition to remembering the past, memory is used to predict the future.
•    Proust was one of several writers who predicted the existence of episodic memory.

Abstract: Cognitive psychologists have often discussed the idea that when Proust used in his books the concept of involuntary memories, which could be retrieved by an odor or a taste, he was in fact predating the notion of modern episodic memory. Since the publication of his famous “In Search of Lost Time”, considerable progress has been made on our understanding of various types of memory and of the mechanisms involved in different brain circuits and synapses responsible for their long-term storage. This review will focus on the role of hippocampus in episodic memory, including its role in encoding time and various elements of episodes, in particular olfactory information. Our conclusion is that Proust did indeed predict the existence of episodic memory, although he did not realize that, in addition to remembering things past, memory is also used to predict the future.



Citations have become the dominant way to evaluate scientific contributions & scientists; this way to measure productivity shifted scientist rewards & behavior toward incremental science & away from exploratory projects that are more likely to fail

Stagnation and Scientific Incentives. Jay Bhattacharya, Mikko Packalen. NBER Working Paper No. 26752, February 2020. DOI 10.3386/w26752

Abstract: New ideas no longer fuel economic growth the way they once did. A popular explanation for stagnation is that good ideas are harder to find, rendering slowdown inevitable. We present a simple model of the lifecycle of scientific ideas that points to changes in scientist incentives as the cause of scientific stagnation. Over the last five decades, citations have become the dominant way to evaluate scientific contributions and scientists. This emphasis on citations in the measurement of scientific productivity shifted scientist rewards and behavior on the margin toward incremental science and away from exploratory projects that are more likely to fail, but which are the fuel for future breakthroughs. As attention given to new ideas decreased, science stagnated. We also explore ways to broaden how scientific productivity is measured and rewarded, involving both academic search engines such as Google Scholar measuring which contributions explore newer ideas and university administrators and funding agencies utilizing these new metrics in research evaluation. We demonstrate empirically that measures of novelty are correlated with but distinct from measures of scientific impact, which suggests that if also novelty metrics were utilized in scientist evaluation, scientists might pursue more innovative, riskier, projects.

 


Trypophobia (disgust evoked by clusters of holes or round objects) might be a modern emotion and hence, urbanization possibly plays key roles in it; & older people in less urban area did not experience as much trypophobia

Zhu, Siqi, Kyoshiro Sasaki, Yue Jiang, Kun Qian, and Yuki Yamada. 2019. “Trypophobia as an Urbanized Emotion: Comparative Research in Ethnic Minority Regions of China.” PsyArXiv. August 30. doi:10.31234/osf.io/u54vb

Abstract: Trypophobia is a strong emotion of disgust evoked by clusters of holes or round objects (e.g., lotus seed pod). It has become increasingly popular and been studied since 2010s, mainly in the West and Japan. Considering this, trypophobia might be a modern emotion and hence, urbanization possibly plays key roles in trypophobia. To address this issue, we compared the degree of trypophobia between urban and less urban people in China. In an experiment, we asked participants about their degree of discomfort from trypophobic images. The results showed that trypophobia occurred in both groups, although the effect size was larger in urban than less urban people. Moreover, post-experimental interviews and post-hoc analyses revealed that older people in less urban area did not experience as much trypophobia. Our findings suggest that trypophobia links to urbanization and age-related properties.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Non-published World Bank study: Aid disbursements to highly aid-dependent countries coincide with sharp increases in bank deposits in offshore financial centers known for bank secrecy

Elite Capture of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts. Jørgen Juel Andersen, Niels Johannesen, Bob Rijkers. Conditionally accepted to the World Bank Working Paper series, December 13, 2019. https://www.nielsjohannesen.net/wp-content/uploads/AidAndHiddenWealth-FullPaper-WEB18Feb2020.pdf

Abstract: Do elites capture foreign aid? We document that aid disbursements to highly aid-dependent countries coincide with sharp increases in bank deposits in offshore financial centers known for bank secrecy and private wealth management, but not in other financial centers. The estimates are not confounded by contemporaneous shocks such as civil conflicts, natural disasters and financial crises, and are robust to instrumenting with predetermined aid commitments. The implied leakage rate is 7.5% at the sample mean and exhibits a strong correlation with the ratio of aid to GDP. Our findings are consistent with aid capture in the most aid-dependent countries.

JEL: D73; F35, P16


Excerpts:

An important feature of all of our empirical specifications is the log-transformation of foreign deposits, which captures the statistical assumption that foreign deposits change exponentially. This assumption has strong economic foundations. First, absent withdrawals and new deposits, compound interest mechanically makes account balances grow exponentially. Second, many theoretical models will predict that changes in deposits in response to changes in the economic environment, e.g. business cycles and policy interventions, are proportional to the stock of deposits. Such considerations have led almost three decades’ of literature on foreign deposits to estimate models in log-levels (Alworth and Andresen, 1992; Huizinga and Nicodeme, 2004; Johannesen, 2014; Johannesen and Zucman, 2014; Menkhoff and Miethe, 2019; OECD, 2019) or log-differences (Andersen et al., 2017).

The main disadvantage of the log-transformation is that the resulting model does not deliver the structural parameter of interest, the leakage rate, directly. It is therefore natural to consider alternatives, for instance to scale deposits by GDP. However, scaling does not preserve the appealing features of the logarithmic transformation when countries are structurally different. For instance, in case two countries exhibit a ratio of haven deposits to GDP of 2% and 10% respectively, compound interest at the rate of 5% increases the ratio of haven deposits to GDP by 0.1% in one country and by 0.5% in the other. Moreover, scaling both deposits (the dependent variable) and aid (the explanatory variable) with GDP may create a mechanical positive correlation. In light of these difficulties, we first estimate the model in log-differences and later retrieve the leakage rate with a simple back-of-the-envelope computation. 

4.1 Main Findings

We present the results from our baseline model in Table 2. Controlling for GDP growth, country fixed effects and time fixed effects, we find that aid disbursements are strongly associated with increases in haven deposits, but do not vary systematically with non-haven deposits. Specifically, as shown in Column (1), an aid disbursement equivalent to one percent of GDP in a given quarter induces a statistically significant increase in haven deposits of around 3.4%. By contrast, as shown in Column (2), the analogous effect on non-haven deposits is a statistically insignificant decrease of around 1.5%. The final specification highlights the difference: an aid disbursement equivalent to one percent of GDP is associated with a statistically significant increase in haven deposits, measured over and above the increase in non-haven deposits, of around 5%, as shown in Column (3).

The results are consistent with aid capture by ruling elites: diversion to secret accounts, either directly or through kickbacks from private sector cronies, can explain the sharp increase in money held in foreign banking centers specializing in concealment and laundering. If the transfers to havens were caused by confounding shocks correlating with aid disbursements, we should expect to see similar transfers to other foreign banking centers; however, there is no evidence of such responses.


Pregnant women may strategically employ sexual behavior to secure or reinforce investment in their future offspring, perhaps by reinforcing a partner's perception of paternity


Women’s sexual strategies in pregnancy. Jaclyn Magginetti, Elizabeth G. Pillsworth. Evolution and Human Behavior, Volume 41, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 76-86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2019.10.001

Abstract: Humans exhibit an unusual pattern of sexual behavior compared to other mammalian females. Women's extended sexuality has been hypothesized to be related to a variety of possible benefits, especially non-genetic reproductive benefits, such as securing male investment via reinforced pairbonds or paternity confusion. But sexual behavior also comes at a cost, particularly for pregnant women, in terms of energetic costs, potential disease, and possible harm to the fetus. We hypothesize, therefore, that sexual behavior in pregnant women should reflect adaptive strategies and that pregnant women will be particularly strategic about their sexual behavior in order to maximize potential benefits while minimizing potential costs. One hundred twelve pregnant women completed a survey of their partners' qualities and their sexual desires toward their primary partners and men other than their primary partners. Results showed that women's perceptions of relationship threat positively predicted sexual desire for primary partners, while their perceptions of their partner's investing qualities negatively predicted sexual desire for extra-pair mates. These qualities, as well as cues to partner's genetic quality and gestation age, also interacted in ways that suggest that pregnant women's sexual desires are sensitive to cues of future investment and relationship stability.

4. Discussion

The results from this study provide much-needed insight into the strategic use of sexual behavior in pregnant women. The data suggest that sexual behavior in pregnancy reflects a strategic tool designed to benefit women's reproductive success through a variety of means. In contrast to previous literature that has reported a general decline in sexual desire across pregnancy, and in contrast to some studies that have documented apparent increases in desire specifically during the second trimester, we found no evidence of any direct effect of gestational age on in-pair sexual desire, either in a linear or curvilinear fashion. This suggests that variation in sexual desire during pregnancy is neither a simple hormonal response, nor likely to be a physiological byproduct of pregnancy.
Based on existing primate literature, one specific function that post-conception copulation may serve is to confuse paternity, which may be beneficial either in the context of potential risks posed by non-fathers to the offspring or if non-fathers may be able to provide additional investment or resources to the child. While misattributed paternity is only likely to occur if multiple mating takes place relatively early in pregnancy, cultures that exhibit beliefs in partible paternity provide an example of how sexual behavior throughout pregnancy can impact the paternal investment and resources available to a woman and her child (e.g., Walker et al., 2010). In our data, we saw no evidence that extra-pair sexual attraction was directly related to gestation age, but we did find that other factors that were related to women's experience of extra-pair sexual attraction tended to have greater effects earlier in pregnancy compared to later.
Many lines of evidence have shown that even the suggestion of possible infidelity can provoke extremely costly responses in male partners, from relationship desertion to homicide (Buss & Shackelford, 1997; Buunk & Massar, 2019; Jewkes, 2002; Wilson & Daly, 1993). Therefore, we expect that the potential benefits of pursuing any sort of extra-pair strategy should only exceed the likely costs if the benefits provided by the primary partner are low. Our data showed a pattern consistent with this prediction, though statistically weak, in which those women who rated their partners as less satisfactory in terms of their investing qualities were more likely to also report experiencing extra-pair sexual desire or flirtation, particularly early in pregnancy. It is important to note that our composite variable of extra-pair attraction included measures of both desire and potentially observable behavior, specifically, flirting with extra-pair men. Even subtle forms of overt behavior are likely to carry risks of partner retribution or more general social sanctions, and thus we find in many studies of human sexual strategies that measures of desire are more useful in illuminating the underlying sexual psychology that ultimately direct sexual behavior than are measures of the behaviors themselves (e.g. Brtnicka, Weiss, & Zverina, 2009; Haselton & Gangestad, 2006; Larson, Pillsworth, & Haselton, 2012; Pillsworth & Haselton, 2006; Roney & Simmons, 2013). In this study, too, we found that the predicted patterns were more evident when excluding overt behaviors and looking only at the unobservable factor of desire.
In addition to the predicted effect of partner investing qualities on pregnant women's extra-pair desires, we also observed a surprising effect of partner's physical attractiveness. Studies of women's extra-pair sexual desires across the ovulatory cycle have consistently shown that fertile women are more likely to experience extra-pair sexual desire if their primary partners are low in physical attractiveness (e.g. Pillsworth & Haselton, 2006). We observed the opposite effect among pregnant women; it was those with more physically attractive partners who experienced greater extra-pair sexual desire. This effect, like that of partner investing quality, was most evident in early pregnancy, when paternity confusion is most likely to occur. Previous research has suggested that men with greater cues to genetic quality, such as physical attractiveness, are, on average, less likely to be reliable investing long-term partners (Aitken, Lyons, & Jonason, 2013; Fisher, 2003). Perhaps those women who have conceived with “cads” are more likely to be seeking “dads” early in pregnancy. Although this is a striking pattern, and theoretically consistent with our overall argument, we caution against overinterpreting this finding. While statistically significant, this pattern is less robust than the others observed in our data, and could be susceptible to undue influence by outliers in the data. We suggest that this is an area that warrants further research.
We also predicted that an extra-pair strategy, whether with the motive of confusing paternity, extracting resources from more than one male, or mate-switching, should be predicted by perceived threats to the current relationship. We did not, however, observe any evidence that perceived threats predicted extra-pair attraction in our participants. Given that relationship maintenance, discussed below, and extra-pair tactics are ultimately opposing strategies, it seems likely that any attempt to pursue both simultaneously could easily result in failure at both. Our participant sample was heavily biased toward women in stable, committed relationships who expressed very high satisfaction with their partners, particularly in terms of their partners' investing qualities. A relationship maintenance strategy is likely, on average, to be more beneficial than a extra-pair strategy in this context, and may account for our failure to find any effect of perceived relationship threats on extra-pair attraction among this sample of pregnant women. Future research would benefit from examining strategic variation within a wider range of relationship contexts to uncover the contextual features that will predict one strategy over the other.
The two final strategies that have been proposed to explain post-conception copulations in the primate literature are relationship maintenance (in the context of “friendships,” “consortships,” or pairbonds) and intrasexual competition. Both of these strategies focus on engaging the primary partner (often, but not always, the father) in sexual interactions. However, the cues that should evince the behavior are likely to differ based on the strategy. If the aim is to secure future resources from a cooperative male partner, then pregnant women's in-pair sexual desire should best be predicted by both the value of that investment and cues that such investment may be at risk. If, on the other hand, the behavior is primarily intended to disrupt the reproduction of other women, then it should be less sensitive to features related to the male partner's likely investment and more sensitive to cues of female competitors' reproductive status. Because we did not have information in our data regarding the reproductive status, including fertility, of female competitors, we can not completely disambiguate these two strategies, but in general the data are consistent with a relationship maintenance strategy.
In our measure of perceived threats to the relationship, we distinguished between “perceived poaching attempts” (perceptions that other women were interested in or trying to “steal” one's partner) and “perceived cheating” (perceptions that the primary partner was, in fact, engaging in extra-pair sexual or romantic behavior). We found perceived relationship threat was the single biggest predictor of pregnant women's in-pair sexual desires, but only in the context of perceived poaching attempts. Perceived partner cheating had no effect on any outcome variables. As discussed above, however, our sample was heavily biased toward women in stable and satisfying relationships, the vast majority of whom reported no suspicions of partner cheating at all. We suggest that in a more representative sample, we would likely find distinct patterns based on the different types of threat, with perceived cheating being more likely to evoke a mate-switching strategy, resulting in increased extra-pair attraction. This should especially be the case if the primary partner is perceived as a less reliable investor. It is also possible that the increase in in-pair sexual desire in the context of potential mate poaching might be better explained as an effect of mate copying (Place, Todd, Penke, & Asendorpf, 2010) than of relationship maintenance, and that women simply find their partners more attractive when other women also find them desirable. In our data, however, perceptions of poaching threat and partner cheating had similarly negative relationships with women's satisfaction with their partner's investing qualities and physical attractiveness, making that explanation less likely. This is another area of research that deserves more attention going forward.
In our data, neither independent partner qualities, such as partner's physical attractiveness or investing qualities, nor dyadic qualities, such as sexual compatibility, had any statistically significant direct effects on pregnant women's experience of in-pair sexual desire. These findings suggest that it is the quality or stability of the relationship itself, rather than the specific qualities of the partner, that is most important to the pregnant woman in predicting her experience of sexual desire for her partner. It is particularly informative that, controlling for sexual compatibility, a partner's physical attractiveness was unrelated to women's sexual desire for her partner. This strongly suggests that sexual desire, in pregnant women as in fertile women, follows a strategic logic and is not simply the result of being faced with an attractive partner.
While there were no direct effects of partner qualities on women's in-pair sexual desire, we did find, as predicted, that the partner's qualities interacted with perceived threats to the relationship to predict women's in-pair sexual desire. A partner's willingness and ability to invest in a woman and her children will define, in part, the cost of losing the relationship. And in fact, we did observe a trend in the data suggesting that the effect of perceived mate poaching attempts on in-pair sexual desire was stronger among those women who rated their partners as better investors compared to those who rated their partners as poorer investors (see Fig. 3). This trend did not reach statistical significance, but we were, again, limited by the small range of variation in women's ratings of their partners' investing qualities. It is relevant to note here that factor analysis indicated that among our sample of pregnant women, parenting qualities (e.g., “good parenting,” “ability to be kind and understanding,” and “desire for children”) and resource-related qualities (e.g., “financial resources,” “social status,” and “ambition”) all loaded onto a single factor that we interpreted as investing qualities. In previous studies using a similar measure with non-pregnant women, these two types of investment (parenting and resources) have appeared to be separable to participants (e.g. Roberts, Craig Roberts, & Little, 2008). This further indicates that the stability of the relationship, and the cooperative parenting benefits that can be obtained therein, are likely to be of particular importance to pregnant women.
Finally, we also observed an unpredicted interaction between perceived poaching attempts and gestational age on women's in-pair sexual desires. As illustrated in Fig. 4, this pattern demonstrates that the effect of perceived threats on pregnant women's sexual desire is more pronounced among women who are earlier in their pregnancies, relative to those who are further along. While not specifically predicted, this pattern is consistent with the general hypothesis that pregnant women may strategically employ sexual behavior to secure or reinforce investment in their future offspring, perhaps by reinforcing a partner's perception of paternity. A promising direction for future research would be to investigate whether actual likelihood of misattributed paternity or even a partner's unfounded skepticism of paternity could influence the practice and timing of sexual behavior in response to perceived threats to the stability of the relationship.
The current study has some limitations, chief among them the relatively small and largely homogenous sample population. Despite recruiting online and receiving responses from all over the U.S., the sample was largely Caucasian, middle-class, and more-or-less happily married. To more fully investigate the strategic patterns of women's sexuality in pregnancy, it will be necessary to have a more diverse sample in terms of relationship status, resource access, and social support. Another limitation was that our sample lacked women very early in pregnancy. 95% of our sample were at least a month into their pregnancies, and while we think it is unlikely that this negatively affected the ability to test our hypotheses, future studies would benefit from recruiting women trying to conceive and those in the post-partum period in order to test predictions from the time of conception through the first weeks of parenthood.