Saturday, June 13, 2020

Coral reef islands can accrete vertically in response to sea level rise

Coral reef islands can accrete vertically in response to sea level rise. Gerd Masselink, Eddie Beetham, Paul Kench. Science Advances, Jun 10 2020, Vol. 6, no. 24, eaay3656. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay3656

Abstract: Increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR) is expected to render reef islands, defined as sandy or gravel islands on top of coral reef platforms, uninhabitable within decades. Such projections generally assume that reef islands are geologically inert landforms unable to adjust morphologically. We present numerical modeling results that show reef islands composed of gravel material are morphodynamically resilient landforms that evolve under SLR by accreting to maintain positive freeboard while retreating lagoonward. Such island adjustment is driven by wave overtopping processes transferring sediment from the beachface to the island surface. Our results indicate that such natural adaptation of reef islands may provide an alternative future trajectory that can potentially support near-term habitability on some islands, albeit with additional management challenges. Full characterization of SLR vulnerability at a given reef island should combine morphodynamic models with assessments of climate-related impacts on freshwater supplies, carbonate sediment supply, and future wave regimes.

DISCUSSION
Our numerical model simulations, validated against small-scale physical model tests, indicate that reef islands will undergo physical transformations in response to SLR and can maintain island surfaces above sea level. Notably, we present the first process-based numerical model simulations of future island change that highlight lateral displacement of shorelines and vertical building of the island crest and island surface. These adjustments are mediated through island rollover, driven by overtopping and overwash processes, and a tentative threshold separating these two regimes for our modeled gravel barrier subjected to wave conditions of Hs = 2–4 m is a mean overwash discharge across the island crest of 0.01 m3 m−1 s−1 associated with maximum overwash depths of 0.2 to 0.4 m. Our results further indicate that the magnitude and pace of change will be dependent on both the rate of SLR and changing wave regimes. These modeled trajectories of island dynamics are consistent with modes of island change observed in recent studies throughout the Indo-Pacific (17, 19, 20–22).

The morphological modeling approach adopted here considers coral reef island response to climate change only as a result of rising sea level. However, increased ocean water temperature is expected to increase the intensity of tropical storms, resulting in enhanced coastal flooding (31), thereby accelerating the rollover process identified in this study, and also has substantial adverse effects on the health of coral reef systems that may modify carbonate sediment production regimes that contribute to island building and maintenance (32). In addition, island habitability is not only a function of island freeboard it also depends on the island planform area, which, without sediment input from the reef structure, may reduce as a result of rollover. Storlazzi et al.(4) have demonstrated that enhanced coastal flooding due to SLR is expected to lead to increased contamination of the freshwater aquifer, where they occur, a process not accounted for in the present numerical modeling approach. It is also important to emphasize that the reef island modeled here is made of gravel, and because of the reduced mobility and increased hydraulic conductivity of gravel compared with that of sand, it could be argued that gravel islands may be particularly responsive and able to keep up with rising sea level. Notwithstanding a modeling approach that only considers the morphodynamic impacts of SLR and the complex set of factors that influence island habitability (33–35), our results confirm recent assertions that the physical foundations for island communities may persist (21). Compared with a static reef island model, the vertical buildup of island elevation by overwash processes modeled here can also offset the increase in future flood risk due to SLR. However, our results also indicate that communities are likely to be confronted with ongoing and escalating rates of island physical change that will stress populations and require careful consideration of the full spectrum of adaptation strategies.

Our analysis provides an empirical basis to help inform appropriate adaptation pathways in island nations, with continued habitation of islands underpinning the majority of these approaches (Fig. 4). The simulated morphodynamic trajectories suggest a cascade of responses is likely, beginning with island keep-up and marginal island narrowing under slower rates of SLR and dominant overtopping regimes. Faster-paced lateral migration of islands and increased reduction in freeboard are projected under faster rates (and greater magnitudes) of SLR and higher wave regimes, producing dominant overwash regimes (Fig. 4). In the most extreme cases, dominant overwashing forces loss of freeboard and rapid rollover of island sediment reservoirs. This cascade of morphological changes supports recent studies (21, 36) that indicate that physical responses are likely to vary between islands, reflecting differences in antecedent condition (e.g., sedimentary fabric and abundance, island size, and presence/absence of conglomerate platform) and environmental boundary conditions (storm wave climate and rate of SLR). Such differences in morphodynamic behavior present the opportunity to develop nuanced adaptation solutions in different island settings, rather than adopt a one-solution approach that ultimately results in island abandonment and relocation (10). Islands with artificial shoreline defenses compromise the ability of shorelines to undergo natural adjustment to changes in the process regime and lock communities into hard structural solutions and a maladaptive dependency. Under extreme scenarios of change, islands may become uninhabitable, and community relocation and structural solutions may become the only alternatives. However, between the binary outcomes—hold the line and community migration—exist a suite of alternate solutions that reflect the dynamic nature of island change and allow planning and soft engineering strategies. Furthermore, given the progressive nature of island transformations, the suite of options provide opportunities for adaptive planning pathways to be developed at the island scale (37), which allows resources to be deployed in a more efficient manner and avoid maladaptive interventions (38).

[Fig. 4 Conceptual diagram of reef island morphological adjustment to future SLR under different environmental and management scenarios.]

Island response is driven by extrinsic factors (rate of SLR, storm characteristics, and overtopping/overwashing balance) and controlled by intrinsic factors (presence/absence of conglomerate platform beneath the island, reef growth, size of the island, and sediment supply). The most appropriate adaptation strategy (managed realignment, nourishment, coastal defense, and relocation) to deal with island change is strongly determined by the type of island response to SLR. For example, an island that is narrowing, but maintaining freeboard, could benefit more from nourishment than coastal defense. If an island is already completely defended, preventing overtopping and overwashing, the only way to maintain habitation is upgrading the coastal defenses (or relocation). The width of the black bars represents the magnitude/importance/relevance of the factor in question.

The pursuit of alternate adaptation pathways does not negate the need to pursue ongoing mitigation action to curtail future SLR and climatic changes on small island nations. However, morphodynamic modeling provides a basis to resolve island-specific trajectories of change to underpin the development of adaptation strategies that may extend the duration of habitation of these islands to at least more than several decades. Future morphodynamic modeling of reef island response to SLR must not only explore further SLR and wave conditions but also need to incorporate the different environmental factors, such as island morphology, reef platform adjustment, and sediment supply.

From 2018... Women’s Pornography. In Pornographies: Critical Positions

Attwood, F. ‘Women’s Pornography’. In Katherine Harrison and Cassandra A. Ogden (Editors) Pornographies: Critical Positions, 2018. ISBN 978-1-908258-32-8. Chester: University of Chester Press. https://www.academia.edu/31463313

Pornography has often been presented as a form of violence against women or an expression of patriarchy, and more recently, as the source of the sexualization of mainstream culture with significant negative impacts on women. At the same time the development of feminist porn studies (see for example, Penley et al., 2013; Maina, 2014) and ‘The ‘Fifty Shades phenomenon’ in which EL James’ book trilogy (2011-2013) became a worldwide bestseller, followed by a widely publicized film (2015), has made women more visible than ever as producers and consumers of pornography.

In this chapter I provide an introduction and brief overview of some of the developments in pornographies that are produced and consumed by women. This is necessarily highly partial given both the timescale I am interested in (1970s to the present day), the wide range of pornographies and other varieties of sexually explicit material that are available, and the relative scarcity of academic work on the production, content and reception of pornographies for women. My aim here is to introduce some of the key contributions to academic literature in the area, chart some of the most well-known areas of production and consumption during the period, and consider three key themes - characterizing women’s porn, authenticity, and participation.

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Porn comics have also been a popular site for women’s pornography. Little academic attention has been paid to Anglophone porn comics for women produced within the US market (Roberts, 2015) but the development of a Japanese tradition has been quite widely researched. Originating in shojo-manga (girls comics), originally dominated by male mangaka, shonen-ai– a genre of male-male romance was developed by female mangaka during the 1970s, focusing on intense, eroticized relationships between bishonen or ‘beautiful boys’ (Madill, forthcoming; see also McLelland, 2000; Levi, McHarry and Pagliassotti, 2010; Nagaike and Suganuma, 2013). A related genre - ‘ladies comics’ (see Shamoon, 2004, p. 82) - portrayed ‘real (or at least realistic) women actively pursuing their own sexual pleasureand ‘taking the initiative in sexual experimentation(Shamoon, 2004, p. 79; see also Jones, 2005), the comic format allowing for the portrayal of female pleasure and orgasm in a way that is not possible on film. Whereas ladies comics virtually excluded the male body, putting the female body on display (2004, p. 83) - as Anglophone comics for women have also tended to do (Roberts, 2015) - boyslove manga focused on men’s bodies and sex between men.

Based on the shonen-ai of the 1970s a wider range of BoysLove (BL) media, often focusing on uke (‘bottom) and seme (‘top) pairings (see Sihombing, 2011), featuring a range of sexual themes including rape, non-consensual sex, BDSM, incest, and underage sex, with a mainly female fan-base and mostly created by women (Mizoguchi, 2003), has gained increasingly wide circulation. Through the mid- to late-1990s Boys’ Love (often called yaoi outside Japan and with a corresponding genre in China called ‘danmei’, see Chao, forthcoming) developed a global market and transnational fandom (Nagaike & Suganuma, 2013; Wood, 2006; Wood, 2013), becoming the site of many amateur online productions.

A focus on men’s bodies has continued to be a popular one for many female consumers of porn. As Alexandra Hambleton (forthcoming) notes, the female-friendly porn films produced by Silk Labo draw on aspects of popular Japanese media culture such as tv dramas with their focus on ‘stressed career women, lonely women who have given up on men, university students looking for love, young couples dating in fashionable or exotic locations’ and J pop ‘idols’ who provide the style template for Silk Labo’s ‘eromen’ performers. Lucy Neville (in press) suggests that women’s pleasures in m/m (male/male) porn are partly explained by the lack of pressure to identify with any of the performers. Participants in her research reported feeling less anxious about the enjoyment of watching male performers, and appreciating what they viewed as the better production values and acting, more experimental and interesting performances, and wider range of body types in m/m porn.


Men holding cats were viewed as less masculine; more neurotic, agreeable, and open; and less dateable

Not the Cat’s Meow? The Impact of Posing with Cats on Female Perceptions of Male Dateability. Lori Kogan and Shelly Volsche. Animals 2020, 10(6), 1007; June 9 2020, https://doi.org/10.3390/ani10061007

Simple Summary: People use dating sites to look for both long-term and short-term potential partners. Previous research suggests that the presence of a pet may add to women’s perceptions of male attractiveness and dateability. This study sought to understand to what degree, if any, the presence of a cat has on women’s perceptions of men. Women responded to an online survey and rated photos of men alone and men holding cats on measures of masculinity and personality. Men holding cats were viewed as less masculine; more neurotic, agreeable, and open; and less dateable. These results varied slightly depending whether the women self-identified as a “dog person” or a “cat person.” This study suggests that a closer look at the effects of different companion species on perceived masculinity and dateability is warranted.

Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate whether men were considered more attractive when posing for a photo alone or holding a cat. Prior research suggests that women view pet owners as more attractive and dateable than non-pet owners; however, this effect was strongest with dog owners. We hypothesized that men posing with cats would be more attractive than those posing alone. Using an online survey, women viewed images of a man posing alone or with a cat and rated the men on the Bem Sex Role Inventory (BSRI) and the Big Five Inventory. Women viewed men as less masculine when holding the cat; higher in neuroticism, agreeableness, and openness; and less dateable. These findings suggest that pets continue to play a role in women’s mate choices and dating preferences, but that a closer look at the effects of different species of pets is warranted.

Keywords: dating; cats; personality; sex roles; human–animal interactions

To be or to appear to be: Evidence that authentic people seek to appear authentic rather than be authentic

To be or to appear to be: Evidence that authentic people seek to appear authentic rather than be authentic. William Hart et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 166, 1 November 2020, 110165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110165

Abstract: Self-presentation theory suggests that all people strategically self-present, so it struggles to account for self-proclaimed “authentic” people who are apparently unaware or unconcerned with the impressions they make. But, we addressed whether self-proclaimed authentic people create authentic identities via strategic displays that communicate authentic images but are inconsistent with the self's objective experiences. Participants (N = 240) completed a (bogus) color-gazing task under the presumption that authentic people see colors become more (more-intense condition) or less intense (less-intense condition) while gazing at them. Participants reported perceiving color as more intense in the more-intense condition, but this biased responding—consistent with appearing authentic—was enhanced by trait-authenticity indicators. This biased responding was not open to awareness. Also, participants higher in trait-authenticity indicators reported possessing more authentic characteristics, and mediation evidence traced these reports to their more biased responding on the task. Self-presentation is fundamental to human nature, and this includes “authentic” people.

Keywords: Impression managementSelf-presentationAuthenticitySelf-verification

The Cost of Torture: Evidence from the Spanish Inquisition

The Cost of Torture: Evidence from the Spanish Inquisition. Ron E. Hassner. Security Studies, May 13 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2020.1761441

Abstract: Empirical evidence on contemporary torture is sparse. The archives of the Spanish Inquisition provide a detailed historical source of quantitative and qualitative information about interrogational torture. The inquisition tortured brutally and systematically, willing to torment all who it deemed as withholding evidence. This torture yielded information that was often reliable: witnesses in the torture chamber and witnesses that were not tortured provided corresponding information about collaborators, locations, events, and practices. Nonetheless, inquisitors treated the results of interrogations in the torture chamber with skepticism. This bureaucratized torture stands in stark contrast to the “ticking bomb” philosophy that has motivated US torture policy in the aftermath of 9/11. Evidence from the archives of the Spanish Inquisition suggests torture affords no middle ground: one cannot improvise quick, amateurish, and half-hearted torture sessions, motivated by anger and fear, and hope to extract reliable intelligence.


Friday, June 12, 2020

Rolf Degen summarizing... Meta-analysis of placebo-controlled clinical trials: Psychedelic-assisted therapy achieves larger effects in mental disorders than typical psychopharmacological or psychotherapy interventions

Luoma, Jason B. 2020. “A Meta-analysis of Placebo-controlled Trials of Psychedelic-assisted Therapy.” PsyArXiv. June 12. doi:10.1080/02791072.2020.1769878

Abstract: After a two-decade hiatus in which research on psychedelics was essentially halted, placebo-controlled clinical trials of psychedelic-assisted therapy for mental health conditions have begun to be published. We identified nine randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of psychedelic-assisted therapy published since 1994. Studies examined psilocybin, LSD (lysergic acid diethylamide), ayahuasca (which contains a combination of N,N-dimethyltryptamine and harmala monoamine oxidase inhibitor alkaloids), and MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine). We compared the standardized mean difference between the experimental and placebo control group at the primary endpoint. Results indicated a significant mean between-groups effect size of 1.21 (Hedges g), which is larger than the typical effect size found in trials of psychopharmacological or psychotherapy interventions. For the three studies that maintained a placebo control through a follow-up assessment, effects were generally maintained at follow-up. Overall, analyses support the efficacy of psychedelic-assisted therapy across four mental health conditions—post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety/depression associated with a life-threatening illness, unipolar depression, and social anxiety among autistic adults. While study quality was high, we identify several areas for improvement regarding the conduct and reporting of trials. Larger trials with more diverse samples are needed to examine possible moderators and mediators of effects, and to establish whether effects are maintained over time.


2000-2018: Sexual inactivity increased among US men such that approximately 1 in 3 men aged 18 to 24 years reported no sexual activity in the past year; inactivity also increased among men & women aged 25-34 years

Trends in Frequency of Sexual Activity and Number of Sexual Partners Among Adults Aged 18 to 44 Years in the US, 2000-2018. Peter Ueda et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(6):e203833, June 12, 2020, doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.3833

Question  Did the distribution of sexual frequency and number of sexual partners in the past year among US adults change between 2000 and 2018, and was there an association between sexual activity and sociodemographic variables?

Findings  In this survey study of US adults from 2000 to 2018, sexual inactivity increased among men aged 18 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years and women aged 25 to 34 years during the study period, with the increase among men mainly occurring among unmarried individuals. Men with lower income and with part-time or no employment were more likely to be sexually inactive, as were men and women who were students.

Meaning  This study found that sexual inactivity increased among US adults, predominantly younger men, between 2000 and 2018, with potential public health implications.

Abstract
Importance  Sexual relationships are important for well-being and health. Recent trends in sexual activity among US adults are unknown.

Objectives  To examine trends in reported frequency of sexual activity and number of sexual partners by sex and age and the association between measures of sexual activity and sociodemographic variables.

Design, Setting, and Participants  In this survey study, repeat, cross-sectional analyses of participants aged 18 to 44 years from 10 rounds of the General Social Survey (2000-2018), a US nationally representative survey, were performed for men and women separately.

Main Outcomes and Measures  Sexual frequency in the past year (sexual inactivity, once or twice per year, 1-3 times per month, or weekly or more) and number of sexual partners in the past year (0, 1, 2, or ≥3 partners). The association between measures of sexual activity and sociodemographic variables were assessed using logistic regression.

Results  The study population included 4291 men and 5213 women in the analysis of sexual frequency and 4372 men and 5377 women in the analysis of number of sexual partners (mean [SD] age, 31.4 [7.6] years; survey response rate, 59.5%-71.4%). Between 2000-2002 and 2016-2018, the proportion of 18- to 24-year-old individuals who reported having had no sexual activity in the past year increased among men (18.9% vs 30.9%; age-adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for trend across survey periods, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39) but not among women (15.1% vs 19.1%; aOR for trend, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.89-1.18). Smaller absolute increases in sexual inactivity were observed among those aged 25 to 34 years for both men (7.0% vs 14.1%; aOR for trend, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.42) and women (7.0% vs 12.6%; aOR for trend, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01-1.35) but not among those aged 35 to 44 years. The increase in sexual inactivity coincided with decreases in the proportion reporting weekly or more sexual frequency (men aged 18-24 years: 51.8% vs. 37.4%; aOR for trend, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.79-0.99]; men aged 25-34 years: 65.3% vs 50.3%; aOR for trend, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.81-0.94]; women aged 25-34 years: 66.4% vs. 54.2%; aOR for trend, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.84-0.96]) or 1 sexual partner (men aged 18-24 years: 44.2% vs. 30.0%; aOR for trend, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.80-0.98]; women aged 25-34 years: 79.6% vs 72.7%; aOR for trend, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.84-0.99]) and occurred mainly among unmarried men (unmarried men aged 18-44 years: 16.2% vs 24.4%; aOR for trend, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.25]). Among married men and women, weekly or more sexual frequency decreased (men: 71.1 % vs 57.7%; aOR for trend, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.79-0.93]; women: 69.1% vs 60.9%; aOR for trend, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.99]). Men with lower income (aOR for men with an annual income of ≥$50 000 vs $0-$9999, 0.37 [95% CI, 0.15-0.90]) and with part-time (aOR vs full-time employment, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.48-2.93) and no employment (aOR vs full-time employment, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.48-2.93) were more likely to be sexually inactive, as were men (aOR vs full-time employment, 2.94; 95% CI, 2.06-4.21) and women (aOR vs full-time employment, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.68-3.35) who were students.

Conclusions and Relevance  This survey study found that from 2000 to 2018, sexual inactivity increased among US men such that approximately 1 in 3 men aged 18 to 24 years reported no sexual activity in the past year. Sexual inactivity also increased among men and women aged 25 to 34 years. These findings may have implications for public health.


Observers viewed extreme protest actions to be immoral, reducing observers’ emotional connection to the movement and, in turn, reducing identification with and support for the movement

Feinberg, M., Willer, R., & Kovacheff, C. (2020). The activist’s dilemma: Extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social movements. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, May 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000230

Abstract: How do protest actions impact public support for social movements? Here we test the claim that extreme protest actions—protest behaviors perceived to be harmful to others, highly disruptive, or both—typically reduce support for social movements. Across 6 experiments, including 3 that were preregistered, participants indicated less support for social movements that used more extreme protest actions. This result obtained across a variety of movements (e.g., animal rights, anti-Trump, anti-abortion) and extreme protest actions (e.g., blocking highways, vandalizing property). Further, in 5 of 6 studies, negative reactions to extreme protest actions also led participants to support the movement’s central cause less, and these effects were largely independent of individuals’ prior ideology or views on the issue. In all studies we found effects were driven by diminished social identification with the movement. In Studies 4–6, serial mediation analyses detailed a more in-depth model: observers viewed extreme protest actions to be immoral, reducing observers’ emotional connection to the movement and, in turn, reducing identification with and support for the movement. Taken together with prior research showing that extreme protest actions can be effective for applying pressure to institutions and raising awareness of movements, these findings suggest an activist’s dilemma, in which the same protest actions that may offer certain benefits are also likely to undermine popular support for social movements.


Visual Features Influence Thought Content in the Absence of Overt Semantic Information

Schertz, Kathryn E., Omid Kardan, and Marc Berman. 2019. “Visual Features Influence Thought Content in the Absence of Overt Semantic Information.” PsyArXiv. September 10. doi:10.31234/osf.io/ptxdr

Abstract: It has recently been shown that the perception of visual features of the environment can influence thought content. Both low-level (e.g., fractalness) and high-level (e.g., presence of water) visual features of the environment can influence thought content, in real-world and experimental settings where these features can make people more reflective and contemplative in their thoughts. It remains to be seen, however, if these visual features retain their influence on thoughts in the absence of overt semantic content, which could indicate a more fundamental mechanism for this effect. In this study, we removed this limitation, by creating scrambled edge versions of images, which maintain edge content from the original images but remove scene identification. Non-straight edge density is one visual feature which has been shown to influence many judgements about objects and landscapes, and has also been associated with thoughts of spirituality. We extend previous findings by showing that non-straight edges retain their influence on the selection of a “Spiritual & Life Journey” topic after scene identification removal. These results strengthen the implication of a causal role for the perception of low-level visual features on the influence of higher-order cognitive function, by demonstrating that in the absence of overt semantic content, low-level features, such as edges, influence cognitive processes.

Thursday, June 11, 2020

The Gap Between Self-reported and Actual Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation in US Residents

Farjam, Mike, and Giangiacomo Bravo. 2020. “The Gap Between Self-reported and Actual Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation in US Residents.” SocArXiv. June 11. doi:10.31235/osf.io/rqd4s

Abstract: Surveys measures of environmental concern are know to only weakly predict self-reported environmental behaviour. In addition, self-reported and actual behaviour may not match in empirical settings. To better explore the relation among these variables and the political stance of participants, we ran an online experiment with 805 US residents. Four key variables – environmental concern, self -reported environmental behaviour, observed environmental behaviour (in the form of carbon compensation), and political attitudes – were measured and their interactions in promoting pro-environment behaviour were analysed. We found that self-reported measures hardly held any correlation with real behaviour and that political attitudes mainly predicted self-reported measures, not real environmental behaviour.


Only 15.33% of manuscripts in Psychological Science 2009-2019 claim to test predictions derived from theories; most psychological research is not driven by theory, nor can it be contributing to theory building

McPhetres, Jonathon, Nihan Albayrak-Aydemir, Ana Barbosa Mendes, Elvina C. Chow, Patricio Gonzalez-Marquez, Erin Loukras, Annika Maus, et al. 2020. “A Decade of Theory as Reflected in Psychological Science (2009-2019).” PsyArXiv. June 11. doi:10.31234/osf.io/hs5nx

Abstract: The dominant belief is that science progresses by testing theories and moving towards theoretical consensus. While it’s implicitly assumed that psychology operates in this manner, critical discussions claim that the field suffers from a lack of cumulative theory. To examine this paradox, we analysed research published in Psychological Science from 2009-2019 (N = 2,225). We found mention of 359 theories in-text, most were referred to only once. Only 53.66% of all manuscripts included the word theory, and only 15.33% explicitly claim to test predictions derived from theories. We interpret this to suggest that most psychological research is not driven by theory, nor can it be contributing to cumulative theory building. These data provide insight into the kinds of research psychologists are conducting and raises questions about the role of theory in the psychological sciences.



Dying to Divulge: The Determinants Of, and Relationship Between, Desired and Actual Disclosure

Carbone, Erin, and George Loewenstein. 2020. “Dying to Divulge: The Determinants Of, and Relationship Between, Desired and Actual Disclosure.” PsyArXiv. May 28. doi:10.31234/osf.io/wfdhx

Abstract: Studies suggest that sharing thoughts and information with others may be inherently pleasurable and confer health, psychological, and social benefits to the discloser. At the same time, self-disclosure exposes individuals to scrutiny and the risk of rejection and reputational damage, particularly with the advent of digital applications and social media outlets that promote public, and often permanent, disclosing. In an effort to understand the tradeoffs that underlie the decision to disclose, we introduce a distinction between the propensity to disclose and the psychological desire to disclose and present a preliminary investigation into when and why these two constructs diverge. Findings from two exploratory studies reveal the types of information that individuals are most eager to share, as well as the contextual factors and individual characteristics that moderate the desire to share and the circumstances under which this desire is most likely to translate into actual sharing. We replicate findings from prior research that the decision to disclose is a function of content emotionality and valence, but find that the propensity to withhold negative information is most pronounced when the information is about oneself than about others, and that gender differences in disclosure are largely driven by the tendency for men to withhold negative, but not positive, information. Additionally, we capture motives and traits, many of them previously unexplored in the disclosure context, to model the underlying decision-making process that leads to information sharing and distinguish between the act of sharing information and the psychological desire that differentially engender disclosing behavior.


Wednesday, June 10, 2020

25 simple job features explain over half the variance in which jobs are now automated; biggest automation predictor is Pace Determined By Speed Of Equipment; predictors didn't change from 1999 to 2019

Testing the automation revolution hypothesis. Keller Scholl, Robin Hanson. Economics Letters, Volume 193, August 2020, 109287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109287

Highlights
• 25 simple job features explain over half the variance in which jobs are now automated.
• The strongest job automation predictor is: Pace Determined By Speed Of Equipment.
• Which job features predict job automation how did not change from 1999 to 2019.
• Jobs that get more automated do not on average change in pay or employment.
• Labor markets change more often due to changes in demand, relative to supply.

Abstract: Wages and employment predict automation in 832 U.S. jobs, 1999 to 2019, but add little to top 25 O*NET job features, whose best predictive model did not change over this period. Automation changes predict changes in neither wages nor employment.

Keywords: AutomationWagesEmploymentOccupationsArtificial intelligenceTechnology