Thursday, November 5, 2020

Album and song sales have a remarkably short period of economic viability. Sales of whole albums approach zero by the end of their first year of release; individual tracks maintain meaningful sales volumes for longer

Copyright and Economic Viability: Evidence from the Music Industry. Kristelia GarcĂ­a  James Hicks  Justin McCrary. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, November 5 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.12267

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1324316696157417473

Abstract: Copyright provides a long term of legal excludability, ostensibly to encourage the production of new creative works. How long this term should last, and the extent to which current law aligns with the economic incentives of copyright owners, has been the subject of vigorous theoretical debate. We investigate the economic viability of content in a major content industry—commercial music—using a novel longitudinal dataset of weekly sales and streaming counts. We find that the typical sound recording has an extremely short commercial half‐life—on the order of months, rather than years or decades—but also see evidence that subscription streaming services are extending this period of economic viability. Strikingly, though, we find that decay rates are sharp even for blockbuster songs, and that the patterns persist when we approximate weekly revenue. Although our results do not provide an estimate of the causal effect of copyright on incentives, they do put bounds on the problem, suggesting a misalignment between the economic realities of the music industry and the current life‐plus‐70 copyright term.


Discussion

Our top‐line results show that album and song sales have a remarkably short period of economic viability. Sales of whole albums (both traditional CDs and digital) approach zero by the end of their first year of release. Individual tracks maintain meaningful sales volumes for longer—perhaps up to several years—but average track sales are negligible in the medium term, and almost zero by the end of our 10‐year study period.


We also find indicative evidence that streaming services prolong the life of sound recordings. Our data suggest that the economic value of the average track declines more slowly through this medium. (From a revenue perspective, the incentive implications of this remain unclear, since streaming volume far exceeds sales volume, while per‐sale earnings far exceed per‐stream royalties.) Unfortunately, our conclusions about streaming are quite tentative. As a result of the small sample size and limited window of observation, we simply cannot make confident inferences. This is a clear avenue for further research as the music industry continues to evolve and further data on consumer behavior becomes available.


There are obvious limitations to our analysis. First, the findings are purely descriptive: nothing in our data allows us to directly assess the causal effect of copyright on sales, let alone on creators’ or labels’ incentives. The data provide a portrait of the economic environment faced by the industry, but we cannot directly observe the choices of artists and record labels.


Second, this is just a piece of the puzzle. Although music is a copyright‐intensive industry, consumer sales and streams are only one component of revenues for commercial music. Statutory royalties paid to the owners of musical compositions and sound recordings are not accounted for in our data. Nor are the various contractual income sources—including sync licensing, touring, and endorsements—that can constitute a significant portion of an artist's revenues. In many cases, these contractual revenue streams are influenced by the copyright‐related revenue streams. This impact varies, however, from artist to artist, and over the course of a career. Unfortunately, our results cannot reveal much quantitatively about these ancillary revenue sources because this information is not generally public.31 Nevertheless, we think these data provide a reasonably good proxy for the overall popularity and revenue performance of the bulk of commercially recorded music.


Our analysis shows that the average work has exhausted its commercial potential long before the term of copyright protection expires. This might suggest—as we conclude—an inefficiency owing to overprotection, such that a more carefully calibrated term would strike a better balance between incentivizing creation and ensuring a robust public domain. An alternate interpretation might suggest that a work's lack of commercial value mitigates concerns stemming from overprotection. In other words, if a work is commercially worthless, what harm is there in that work remaining under copyright protection? In a word: access. In the absence of a use requirement, copyright protection prevents a work from falling into the public domain regardless of whether the rightsholder is actively exploiting it or making it available. The literature has identified several categories of post‐commercial works for which an extended period of copyright protection has an adverse impact on access. These include orphan works (works whose authors are either unknown or unidentifiable); mismanaged works (where a work's author is known but deceased, and the stewards are either delinquent or difficult to trace); and works by disadvantaged or marginalized authors. Works in the latter category, for example, often do not experience commercial success in their day, but may later prove to be valuable historical accounts of oppression (Reese 2012: 291).


Overall, we find the sharpness of the results quite striking. Our analysis provides a baseline for the commercial relevance of the typical sound recording and offers a rare window into the on‐the‐ground economics of a major content industry. As political debates about the appropriate term of copyright continue to roil in the international arena, empirical evidence provides an important, but inexplicably rare, check: Our findings suggest that current copyright terms are at odds with the economic reality of the majority of commercially recorded music.


Experiencing an object as pleasurable is a prerequisite for judging it to be beautiful; but to qualify as beautiful, an object must elicit especially high levels of pleasure & be matched to internal learned models of what counts as beautiful

The nature of beauty: behavior, cognition, and neurobiology. Martin Skov  Marcos Nadal. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, November 4 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14524

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1324292298436476928

Abstract: Beauty is commonly used to refer to positive evaluative appraisals that are uniquely human. Little is known, however, about what distinguishes beauty in terms of psychological function or neurobiological mechanisms. Our review describes recent empirical studies and synthesizes what behavioral, cognitive, and neuroscientific experiments have revealed about the nature of beauty. These findings suggest that beauty shares computational mechanisms with other forms of hedonic appraisal of sensory objects but is distinguished by specific conceptual expectations. Specifically, experiencing an object as pleasurable is a prerequisite for judging it to be beautiful; but to qualify as beautiful, an object must elicit especially high levels of pleasure and be matched to internal learned models of what counts as beautiful. We discuss how these empirical findings contradict several assumptions about beauty, including the notion that beauty is disinterested, and that it is specific to Homo sapiens.




Denmark: Citizens' policy opinions changed immediately and substantially when their party switched its policy position—even when the new position went against citizens' previously held views

How Political Parties Shape Public Opinion in the Real World. Rune Slothuus  Martin Bisgaard. American Journal of Political Science, November 4 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12550

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1324316696157417473

Abstract: How powerful are political parties in shaping citizens' opinions? Despite long‐standing interest in the flow of influence between partisan elites and citizens, few studies to date examine how citizens react when their party changes its position on a major issue in the real world. We present a rare quasi‐experimental panel study of how citizens responded when their political party suddenly reversed its position on two major and salient welfare issues in Denmark. With a five‐wave panel survey collected just around these two events, we show that citizens' policy opinions changed immediately and substantially when their party switched its policy position—even when the new position went against citizens' previously held views. These findings advance the current, largely experimental literature on partisan elite influence.


Using Twitter decreases the level of depressive symptoms by 27%, which explains why social media usage in the US has grown steadily even though most studies find that more usage correlates with higher depressive symptoms

Social Media Usage and the Level of Depressive Symptoms in the United States. Qin Jiang. October 30, 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1x8icCMCMWcBS2H2mc48bQgm-ZfkQwTEQ/view

Abstract: In 2019, more than 72% of US adults used social media. The use of social media can potentially decrease the level of depressive symptoms by providing support or increase the level of depressive symptoms by putting social pressure on users. This paper leverages a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of using social media platforms on depression. I find that using Twitter decreases the level of depressive symptoms by 27%. This result explains why social media usage in the US has grown steadily even though most studies find that more usage correlates with higher levels of depressive symptoms. There is heterogeneity with respect to age, income, education, race, previous level of depressive symptoms, and region. The average labor market benefit that comes from this effect is equivalent to 0.1% GDP in the US.


JEL: I12, I31, O33

Keywords: Social Media, Depressive Symptoms, Twitter, CESD, Fixed Effects


Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The Fears of Being Infected by the COVID–19 Virus in Canada: A Look at Germophobes, Crowd-averse, Fearless and Other Population Segments

Mata, Fernando. 2020. “The Fears of Being Infected by the COVID–19 Virus in Canada: A Look at Germophobes, Crowd-averse, Fearless and Other Population Segments.” SocArXiv. November 4. doi:10.31235/osf.io/b38vs

Abstract: The fear of being infected by the COVID-19 virus is widespread in the Canadian population. This study examined the COVID-19 virus infection fears in a survey sample of 4,200 adult Canadians aged 15 years old and over during the confinement period of June 21-26, 2020 and collected by Statistics Canada. A marketing segmentation analysis was carried out using a roster of 13 perceived health risks items leading to the identification of typical fears and the profiling of five major segments present in the Canadian adult population: "Germophobes" (7%), "Crowd-Averse" (34%), "Fearless" (17%), "Outside "Bubble"-Averse" (18%), and ""Nursing Homes-Averse" (24%). Health risk items included a wide range of preoccupations such as visiting retirement homes, travelling by car or airplane, attending public events, shopping, eating out, seeing doctors and/or participating in sports or gyms. The five population segments were identified using a combination of principal component and k-means cluster statistical analysis. Marketing segmentation is a useful tool for decision makers to categorize population members and, by doing so, facilitate better public campaigns, help design messages, and implement changes that can promote more efficient ways to deal with the various societal consequences of the COVID-19 confinement.


Partisans are less altruistic, less trusting, & less likely to contribute to a mutually beneficial public good when paired with the other party's members, bordering on entrenched divisions commonly saw in conflict or post-conflict societies

Tribalism in America: Behavioral Experiments on Affective Polarization in the Trump Era. Sam Whitt et al. Journal of Experimental Political Science, November 2020. https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2020.29

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323938691383988224

Abstract: Our research speaks to the ongoing debate over the extent and severity of partisan political divisions in American society. We employ behavioral experiments to probe for affective polarization using dictator, trust, and public goods games with party identification treatments. We find that subjects who identify politically with the Democratic or Republican Party and ideologically as liberals and conservatives display stronger affective biases than politically unaffiliated and ideological moderates. Partisan subjects are less altruistic, less trusting, and less likely to contribute to a mutually beneficial public good when paired with members of the opposing party. Compared to other behavioral studies, our research suggests increasing levels of affective polarization in the way Americans relate to one another politically, bordering on the entrenched divisions one commonly sees in conflict or post-conflict societies. To overcome affective polarization, our research points to inter-group contact as a mechanism for increasing trust and bridging political divides.



Tuesday, November 3, 2020

The effect of eyelash length on attractiveness: While eyelashes of an optimum ratio are considered more attractive, this preference is not solely a biologically adaptive phenomenon and is influenced by cultural norms

Pazhoohi, F., & Kingstone, A. (2020). The effect of eyelash length on attractiveness: A previously uninvestigated indicator of beauty. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, Nov 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/ebs0000243

Abstract: Human eyelashes are one of the facial features that contributes to facial attractiveness. While enhancing the appearance of eyelashes has been practiced since antiquity, research investigations that consider the effect of their length on perceived attractiveness are scarce. Length of eyelashes can be an indicator of health, and it has recently been proposed that there is an optimum length for eye protection. In the current article, we investigated if the attractiveness of eyelash length dovetails with these evolutionary and functional proposals. Our results support this proposition, with the preference for eyelash length following an inverted-U function, with the highest ratings peaking at approximately one third of the eyes’ width. Interestingly, there is a difference between male and female faces, suggesting that while in general, eyelashes of an optimum ratio are considered more attractive, this preference is not solely a biologically adaptive phenomenon and is influenced by cultural norms.



Participants most wished to avoid information about their partners’ prior sexual behavior or infidelity, as well as their partners’ prejudices; threats to the self and relationship may influence the decision to avoid information

Avoiding information about one’s romantic partner. Maryam Hussain et al. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, November 3, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407520969856

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323613704668225536

Abstract: Research links open communication and self-disclosure to a host of beneficial outcomes in romantic relationships, including better relationship quality, relationship satisfaction, feelings of closeness and commitment, and relationship longevity. However, learning some information about a partner may evoke negative consequences. In two studies, we examined the types of information people may wish to avoid learning about their past or current romantic partners (Study 1), and individual differences in avoidance of information about a current romantic partner (Study 2). Content-coding of data from Study 1 revealed that a majority (51%) of respondents wished to avoid information related to their partner’s history of sexual behavior and/or infidelity. In Study 2, participants who were older and who scored higher on measures of anxious and avoidant attachment were more likely to want to avoid information about their partner. Furthermore, replicating and extending Study 1, participants most wished to avoid information about their partners’ prior sexual behavior and/or infidelity, as well as their partners’ prejudices. We interpret our findings in terms of a threat-management framework for information avoidance, suggesting that threats to the self and relationship may influence the decision to avoid information about a romantic partner.

Keywords: Attachment, information avoidance, romantic relationships, sexuality, uncertainty


Overnighting – staying overnight at someone else’s home or having them stay overnight at your place -- is widespread throughout the epidemic, over half American adults had at least one overnight

Kelley, Jonathan, MDR Evans, and Sarah Kelley. 2020. “Let's Spend the Night Togheter: A Challenge for Medically Optimal Coronavirus Social Distancing Policies.” SocArXiv. October 29. doi:10.31235/osf.io/tsqyb

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323546443282554880

Abstract: Public health efforts aiming to slow the COVID-19 epidemic and protect the vulnerable by reducing interpersonal contact and increasing interpersonal physical distance have achieved considerable success. About three-quarters of Americans report following all the recommended practices. But there is an elephant in the room: Overnighting – staying overnight at someone else’s home or having them stay overnight at your place -- is rarely mentioned publicly. But we find that overnighting is widespread throughout the epidemic thus far. In the past month, over half American adults had at least one overnight guest and about the same number (but not always the same people) spent at least one night at somebody else's home. The consequences are striking: People who overnight are more than twice as likely to report having had COVID-19. Who overnights? Overnighting is much more common among young adults (over 60% for those 25-34) than among their seniors (dipping below 40% for those age 65 and over). Moreover, risk seekers overnight much more than otherwise-similar risk-averse peers. Data: International Social Science Survey, Round 21, Cohorts 1-7, collected April –September 2020, N=9,474. Methods: Descriptive statistics and OLS.


Playing With Fear: A Field Study in Recreational Horror

Playing With Fear: A Field Study in Recreational Horror. Marc Malmdorf Andersen et al. Psychological Science, November 2, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620972116

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323520582550458368

Abstract: Haunted attractions are illustrative examples of recreational fear in which people voluntarily seek out frightening experiences in pursuit of enjoyment. We present findings from a field study at a haunted-house attraction where visitors between the ages of 12 and 57 years (N = 110) were equipped with heart rate monitors, video-recorded at peak scare points during the attraction, and asked to report on their experience. Our results show that enjoyment has an inverted-U-shaped relationship with fear across repeated self-reported measures. Moreover, results from physiological data demonstrate that the experience of being frightened is a linear function of large-scale heart rate fluctuations, whereas there is an inverted-U-shaped relationship between participant enjoyment and small-scale heart rate fluctuations. These results suggest that enjoyment is related to forms of arousal dynamics that are “just right.” These findings shed light on how fear and enjoyment can coexist in recreational horror.

Keywords: fear, enjoyment, play, heart rate, arousal, horror, open data, open materials


Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win; also, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one otherwise

Coibion, Olivier and Gorodnichenko, Yuriy and Weber, Michael, Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes (October 27, 2020). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2020-158, SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3720679

Abstract: We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents’ expectations about the presidential election’s outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the election, despite widespread publicly available polling information. Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win. Second, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one if the other candidate wins. Since most respondents are confident in their favored outcome, unconditional forecasts are similar across parties despite the fact that underlying probability distributions and conditional forecasts are very different. Third, when presented with recent polling data, most voters change their views by little unless they are independent and/or have relatively weak priors about the outcome. Information that emphasizes the uncertainty in polling data has larger effects in terms of reducing polarization in expected probabilities over different electoral outcomes. Fourth, exogenous information that changes individuals’ probability distribution over electoral outcomes also changes their unconditional forecasts in a corresponding manner. These changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions.

Keywords: Elections, political views, COVID-19, expectations, randomized controlled trial, Bayesian learning

JEL Classification: E31, C83, D84, J21, J26


Secularism, even in small amounts, is associated with population stagnation or even decline, whereas highly religious countries have higher fertility rates that promote population growth

Schnabel, Landon. 2016. “Secularism and Fertility Worldwide.” SocArXiv. July 19. doi:10.31235/osf.io/pvwpy

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323497965156212737

Abstract: This study proposes and explores a new fertility determinant: societal secularism. Using country-level data from multiple sources (N=181) and multilevel data from 58 countries in the World Values Survey (N=83,301), I document a strong negative relationship between societal secularism and both country-level fertility rates and individual-level fertility behavior. Secularism, even in small amounts, is associated with population stagnation or even decline, whereas highly religious countries have higher fertility rates that promote population growth. This country-level pattern is driven by more than aggregate lower fertility of secular individuals. In fact, societal secularism is a better predictor of highly religious individuals’ fertility behavior than that of secular individuals, and this pattern is largely a function of cultural values related to gender, reproduction, and autonomy in secular societies. Beyond their importance for the religious composition of the world population, the patterns presented in this study are relevant to key fertility theories and could help account for below-replacement fertility.


The narcissistic wine consumer: How Social Attractiveness Associated with Wine Prompts Narcissists to Engage in Wine Consumption

The narcissistic wine consumer: How Social Attractiveness Associated with Wine Prompts Narcissists to Engage in Wine Consumption. Renaud Lunardo, David A. Jaud, Armando Maria Corsi. Food Quality and Preference, November 3 2020, 104107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2020.104107

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323486670604410880

Highlights

• Narcissistic people associate wine with greater social attractiveness.

• Social attractiveness in turn leads to higher consumption.

• These relationships hold even when the emotional value of wine brand is low.

• A typology of narcissist consumers can be identified.

• Wine producers should encourage consuming wine in moderation.

Abstract: Wine consumption can help improve one’s social image. Given this social aspect of wine, we predict that because individuals who are high in narcissism strive for social admiration, wine represents a product of choice for them. In Study 1 (N = 654), we show that for narcissistic people, wine is associated with greater social attractiveness, which in turn leads to higher consumption of wine. We also draw a typology of narcissistic wine consumers. In Study 2 (N = 192), we replicate the mediation results of Study 1 and take a step further by examining the influence of anticipated emotional value. More specifically, we show that the sequence above whereby narcissistic people consume higher amounts of wine due to its social attractiveness not only holds, but is stronger when the emotional value that such people anticipate from wine consumption is low. In other words, narcissists engage more in wine consumption for social reasons when they do not (versus do) anticipate wine consumption as a pleasurable experience. We provide a discussion of the practical implications of our results for wine producers and policymakers.

Keywords: NarcissismWine ConsumptionSocial AttractivenessEmotional ValueCluster Analysis

Physical strength & attractiveness positively predicted Extraversion & specific facets; strength negatve predicted Emotionality & fearfulness

Functional coordination of personality strategies with physical strength and attractiveness: A multi-sample investigation at the HEXACO facet-level. Nina N. Rodriguez, Aaron W. Lukaszewski. Journal of Research in Personality, Volume 89, December 2020, 104040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2020.104040

Highlights

• Tests HEXACO Extraversion & Emotionality correlations w/ attractiveness & strength.

• Multi-sample analysis using multiple attractiveness & strength measures.

• Strength & attractiveness positively predicted Extraversion & specific facets.

• Strength negatively predicted Emotionality & specific facets (e.g. fearfulness)

• Facet-level results give clues re: psychological mechanisms underpinning personality.

Abstract: Previous research has supported adaptationist hypotheses pertaining to the functional coordination of personality strategies with phenotypic determinants of bargaining power, such as physical strength and attractiveness. However, prior studies have focused primarily on explaining variation in Extraversion and Emotionality/Neuroticism as broadband traits. The current study synthesizes data from three subject samples (N = 766) to test correlations of physical strength and attractiveness with the HEXACO factors and facets among young adults. Our analyses reveal specific, functionally meaningful, patterns of phenotypic coordination, and thereby help illuminate which facets drive previously documented associations at the factor-level. Among both sexes, strength was an especially important predictor of facets whose secondary loadings place them in the quadrant of factor space defined by high Extraversion (Expressiveness, Liveliness, Social Boldness) and low Emotionality (Fearfulness, Anxiety). Findings bolster the hypothesis that specific personality strategies are coordinated with phenotypic components of bargaining power, and suggest that granular measures of personality (such as facets) may provide more mechanistic and functional insight than broadband trait factors.

Keywords: Evolutionary psychologyFacultative calibrationHEXACOPersonality


Monday, November 2, 2020

Physical attractiveness: Not all implicit biases are negative, some traits foster positive unfairness, advantaging some candidates over others; mask wearing is appropriate may play some role in mitigating attractiveness bias

Guarding Against Implicit Bias: Attractiveness. Harrison L. Love, Richard B. Gunderman. Journal of the American College of Radiology, October 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2020.10.004

Abstract: Most of the literature on implicit bias naturally focuses on negative stereotypes: categories such as race and gender that lead to discrimination against some candidates in job interview invitations, offers of employment, and promotions. Examples of implicit bias abound; for example, girls are often assumed to be less capable than boys in engineering and math, and parents rate these abilities in their daughters lower than in their sons, even when they perform equally in school [ 1 ].

Yet not all implicit biases are negative, and in fact some traits foster positive unfairness, advantaging some candidates over others. One such trait is physical attractiveness. Recognizing and compensating for this form of bias is equally important for members of the radiology profession.


ATTRACTIVENESS

Some traits tend to be viewed as attractive across all cultures. Amongthese are facial symmetry, clear complexion, and a narrow waistline [2].Other features tend to apply to particular genders. For example, men tend to be attracted to women who appear young and have full breasts and lips. Women tend to be attracted tomen who are taller than they are andwho have broad shoulders. Viewers appraise such features at a subliminallevel, gauging attractiveness afterviewing a photograph for only 1/100thof a second [2].There is evidence that the prefer-ence for attractiveness is innate [3]. Forexample, 1-year-old infants play longerand more intensely, experience lessdistress, and even appear to exhibitmore pleasure when playing withattractive people. Even infants asyoung as 2 months old gaze longer atattractive faces than unattractive ones.The corollary of attractiveness bias is abias against the unattractive [4].Hence it is no surprise that mostpeople take care of how they appear toothers, relying to some degree on attire,cosmetics, and grooming to create a morefavorable impression. Very few peoplewould willingly show up for a job inter-view appearing as they do the momentthey climb out of bed in the morning.That attractiveness should beappealing is a bit tautological, but manytheorists have speculated that it mayserve as an indicator of geneticfitness [5].For example, body build may offer cluesabout health, and general appearancemay serve as an indicator ofsocioeconomic status, both which maybe desirable to prospective mates.Somehaveargued,forexample,thatthe male preference for youth reflects aconcern with reproductivefitness, whilethe traits preferred by women serve asindicators of the capacity to offer protec-tion and provide resources. Even at theneurologic level, viewing the faces ofattractive people has been shown to acti-vate areas of the brain associated withreward [6].

ATTRACTIVENESS BIAS

As this bias toward attractiveness appliesacross genders, ages, and sexual orientations [6], there is ample evidence that it manifests in the workplace [7]. For example, such individuals are morelikely to be interviewed and hired, andthey tend to earn higher wages than individuals judged to be unattractive. Attractive wait staff in restaurants havebeen shown to receive higher tips,regardless of the quality of service theyprovide.And such effects appear not to beaccounted for by other traits; forexample, even when self-confidence istaken into account, attractive individualsretain an advantage in compensation.Likewise, studies in the legal professionhave shown that physically attractive defendants tend to receive more favor-able judgments. Such effects are likely toredound to the detriment of the biased.The underlying reasons for such bia-ses are complex, but it appears thatattractive people are, on balance, perceived by others to be friendlier, healthier, more intelligent, more competent, more generous, and more trustworthy than unattractive people, who tend to beperceived as duller, more introverted, and less generous and trustworthy. There is also reason to think that thebias toward physical attractiveness is at least somewhat unfair. Forexample, some studies suggest that the skill andproductivity of workers is not correlated with their attractiveness [6]. Likewise, here is little evidencethata ttractivepeople are more likely than others to becooperative, generous, or trustworthy.

ATTRACTIVENESS BIAS INRADIOLOGY

The association between attractivenessand academic performance is especiallygermane to radiologists who are select-ing candidates for residency, fellowship,and post-training employment oppor-tunities. There appear to be strongpositive correlations between attractive-ness and such characteristics as perceivedintelligence, perceived academic perfor-mance, and perceived conscientiousness.However, there is no strong positivecorrelation between attractiveness andactual academic performance [4].Attractiveness influences what actu-ally happens in contexts such as schoolsand workplaces. Attractive students aremore likely to get into university becausethey are deemed more intelligent andconscientious. They are also likely toreceive better grades. Likewise, moreattractive people are more likely to gethired and be retained. And salariesappear to be 10% to 15% higher forindividuals deemed to be attractive,which is similar to wage differentialsassociated with gender and race.In some contexts, the implicit biastoward attractiveness may not even beunfair. Consider, for example, lines ofwork such as modeling and acting, inwhich the attractiveness of workers is likelyto enhance sales of products and tickets.

COUNTERACTINGATTRACTIVENESS BIAS

How should radiologists and otherradiology personnel who seek to eval-uate candidates, learners, and colleaguesfairly approach the problem of the pos-itive bias toward physical attractiveness?One part of the solution may be simplyto recognize that such biases exist.Knowing that they are biased to-ward attractive candidates, committeescharged with residency and fellowshipselection, searching and screening forjob candidates, and promotion andtenure can consciously question thedegree to which their deliberations arebiased by attractiveness. Where suchbiases are identified, attempts can bemade to compensate for them.Another way to reduce the effects ofattractiveness bias is to take the physicalappearance of those being evaluated outof the equation. In some cases, candi-date photographs can be excluded fromassessment. During interviews, evalua-tors can be blinded, for example byproviding one or more members of aselection committee with only the audiocomponent of an interview.It is worth noting that the currentcoronavirus pandemic and other situations in which mask wearing is appropriate may play some role in mitigating attractiveness bias. If part of a candi-dates face is covered when a photo-graph is taken or during a remote or in-person interview, the potential for facialattractiveness is diminished.Some have even suggested that arti-ficial intelligence might play a role inmitigating attractiveness bias. As suchbias is to some degree subjective, perhapscomputers could provide a more objec-tive assessment of candidates. Yet therecent travails of facial recognition tech-nology serve as an important reminderthat even seemingly objective computers may harborbiases based on theirpro-gramming and the data sets they havebeen tasked to learn from.In thefinal analysis, the challenge of implicit bias toward physical <attractiveness is not one that can beeliminated but must instead be managed. To begin with, we need toacknowledge that such biases exist.Moreover, we must recognize that in many situations, it is unfair to allowour expectations and evaluations to beshaped by how a person looks. Finally, we need to do our best toensure that such biases do not undulyinfluence our decision making, allow-ing traits that are only skin deep toobscure our perception of far moreimportant personal attributes such asintelligence, character, and experience,which in the long run are likelier topredict performance.

Combine people’s 1st estimate with their 2d estimate made from the perspective of a person they often disagree with; this produces highly accurate inner crowds, as compared to when people simply make a second guess

van de Calseyde, Philippe, and Emir Efendic. 2019. “Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People’s Quantitative Estimates.” PsyArXiv. November 15. doi:10.31234/osf.io/k3w4u

Abstract: Many decisions rest upon people’s ability to make estimates of some unknown quantities. In these judgments, the aggregate estimate of the group is often more accurate than most individual estimates. Remarkably, similar principles apply when aggregating multiple estimates made by the same person – a phenomenon known as the “wisdom of the inner crowd”. The potential contained in such an intervention is enormous and a key challenge is to identify strategies that improve the accuracy of people’s aggregate estimates. Here, we propose the following strategy: combine people’s first estimate with their second estimate made from the perspective of a person they often disagree with. In five pre-registered experiments (total N = 6425, with more than 53,000 estimates), we find that such a strategy produces highly accurate inner crowds (as compared to when people simply make a second guess, or when a second estimate is made from the perspective of someone they often agree with). In explaining its accuracy, we find that taking a disagreeing perspective prompts people to consider and adopt second estimates they normally would not consider as viable option, resulting in first- and second estimates that are highly diverse (and by extension more accurate when aggregated). However, this strategy backfires in situations where second estimates are likely to be made in the wrong direction. Our results suggest that disagreement, often highlighted for its negative impact, can be a powerful tool in producing accurate judgments.




We already knew... Leaving the Loners Alone: Preference for Solitude Evokes Ostracism

Leaving the Loners Alone: Dispositional Preference for Solitude Evokes Ostracism. Dongning Ren, Anthony M. Evans. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, November 2, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220968612


Abstract: What are the interpersonal consequences of seeking solitude? Leading theories in developmental research have proposed that having a general preference for solitude may incur significant interpersonal costs, but empirical studies are still lacking. In five studies (total N = 1,823), we tested whether target individuals with a higher preference for solitude were at greater risk for ostracism, a common, yet extremely negative, experience. In studies using self-reported experiences (Study 1) and perceptions of others’ experiences (Study 2), individuals with a stronger preference for solitude were more likely to experience ostracism. Moreover, participants were more willing to ostracize targets with a high (vs. low) preference for solitude (Studies 3 and 4). Why do people ostracize solitude-seeking individuals? Participants assumed that interacting with these individuals would be aversive for themselves and the targets (Study 5; preregistered). Together, these studies suggest that seeking time alone has important (and potentially harmful) interpersonal consequences.

Keywords: preference for solitude, ostracism, exclusion, person perception

Across five studies, we found consistent evidence that individuals who voluntarily seek solitude are at greater risk for ostracism. This conclusion is based on correlational evidence, using participants’ self-reported experiences and their perceptions of others’ experiences (Studies 1 and 2), as well as experimental evidence using verbal descriptions and simulated personality profiles (Studies 3–5). These findings were robust across the contexts of data collection: the United States and the Netherlands; online and in a laboratory; from college students and MTurk.

Importantly, our final study provides some insight into why people ostracize targets with higher preference for solitude. Ostracism intentions are related to both self-interested and other-regarding motives (Study 5). This finding supports and builds on Williams’ theorizing that people may use ostracism preemptively to avoid any aversive outcomes (Williams, 1997). Comparing the two motives further revealed that self-interest, wanting to avoid an unpleasant social interaction, was the primary motive underlying participants’ ostracizing intentions.

Our work also provides insights into general beliefs about solitude-seeking individuals (Studies 3–5): participants considered solitude-seeking individuals to be low in the need to belong, indifferent to belonging events, cold, competent, and introverted. While most of these evaluations are intuitive, given the conceptual link between preference for solitude and low sociality, the positive relationship between preference for solitude and competence is surprising. Past studies found that people believe that loneliness and introversion are associated with incompetence (Anderson & Kilduff, 2009Lau & Gruen, 1992), suggesting that lay people are able to distinguish preference for solitude from loneliness and introversion. Why do people perceive high (vs. low) solitude preference targets to be more competent? One possible interpretation is that preference for solitude is perceived as a sign of maturity, given that as people transition from adolescent to adulthood, choosing to spend time in solitude becomes more normative and purposeful (Coplan, Ooi, et al., 2019). Another possible interpretation is that preference for solitude is linked with independence in lay beliefs. In fact, wanting to be alone is termed as a motivation for independence in the fundamental social motives framework (Neel et al., 2016). Future research should try to better understand the intriguing link between preference for solitude and competence in lay beliefs.

Theoretical Contributions

The current research contributes to the growing literature on voluntary solitude. To date, there is a general lack of studies on the voluntary preference for solitude, and there are even fewer studies using adult samples or providing causal evidence (Coplan, Ooi, et al., 2019). Our research contributes to this literature by presenting clear evidence that having a strong preference for solitude is consequential in the interpersonal domain. The desire for “me time” is commonly experienced (e.g., Larson, 1990), and there are many potential benefits that voluntary solitude affords (e.g., Long et al., 2003). However, our research sheds light on potential barriers (and consequences) to seeking solitude—the risk of being ostracized and stigmatized.

The current studies suggest that the link between preference for solitude and ostracism could be dynamic and recursive. Targets of ostracism may withdraw from social interactions to minimize risk of additional social pain (Richman & Leary, 2009Van Kleef et al., 2010). In past experiments, targets of ostracism (vs. inclusion) indicated stronger intentions to disengage from social situations (Pfundmair et al., 2015), more positive ratings of physical spaces that hinder social interaction (Meagher & Marsh, 2017), and, importantly, a higher preference for being alone in the following activity (Ren et al., 2020). Here, we showed that, ironically, the very response to ostracism (i.e., preference for solitude) may put targets at higher risk for ostracism in future social interactions. To fully establish this bidirectional causal link between preference for solitude and ostracism, future work should track participants longitudinally.

The current studies also broaden our understanding of who is ostracized. Focusing on the broad Big Five dimensions, past studies identified two risk factors: low agreeableness and low conscientiousness (Rudert et al., 2020). Notably, narrow traits are often able to better predict domain-specific behavioral outcomes, even when controlling for global traits (Dudley et al., 2006Paunonen et al., 2003). Here, we focus on preference for solitude, a narrow, domain-specific trait, as both preference for solitude and ostracism are conceptually related to absence of social interactions (although in the case of ostracism, the absence is involuntary). We found that preference for solitude was associated with general ostracism experience, even while controlling for the Big Five traits (Study 1); in addition, participants did not consistently infer agreeableness or conscientiousness from targets’ preference for solitude (Studies 3–5: analyses on perceptions of targets). Taken together, these findings demonstrated that a narrow trait—preference for solitude—put individuals at heightened risk for ostracism above and beyond the known dispositional factors of agreeableness and conscientiousness. An interesting direction for future research is to explore other narrow, domain-specific traits (e.g., trait aggression) and examine multiple risk factors for ostracism in one study. This would allow researchers to examine the relative importance of each risk factor and any potential interaction effects between these factors.

More broadly, the current studies shed light on the question of why people ostracize others. Empirical attention has been given to self-interested or malicious reasons such as using ostracism to punish deviant or burdensome behaviors (Schachter, 1951Wesselmann et al., 2013Wirth et al., 2020). Our research adds to this literature by showing that people may have self-interested and other-regarding reasons for ostracizing others. This other-regarding motive for ostracism is in fact not uncommon in our daily life: people may stay silent during an argument with their partner to avoid saying anything harmful, refrain from inviting a busy coworker out for drinks so as not to distract them, or withhold information from a friend when they believe the information may hurt their feelings (a form of partial ostracism; Jones & Kelly, 2013). All these behaviors, albeit motivated by genuine concerns for the target individual, are still examples of the act of ostracizing.

Limitations and Additional Future Directions

In Studies 3 to 5, we used hypothetical profiles to manipulate preference for solitude. This approach is limited in two ways. First, the profiles (e.g., the verbal descriptions in Study 3) may not represent the actual levels of preference for solitude of individuals people encounter in their social environment. Recognizing this potential issue, in Studies 4 and 5, we used a data-driven approach of generating the hypothetical profiles. Second, the profiles made the information of preference for solitude explicit to the participants. In real life, people sometimes indeed make interpersonal decisions based on explicit personality information, for instance, in the domains of personnel selection (Ones & Viswesvaran, 1996) and romantic partner choice (Hall et al., 2010). Yet, at other times, people lack explicit knowledge of their interaction partners. Is preference for solitude a visible trait in social interaction? In other words, can people accurately infer others’ preference for solitude?

Past studies have not examined this question directly. However, there is suggestive evidence that people readily detect the preference for solitude in others. For example, children are able to recognize their peers’ preference for solitude and interact with these individuals accordingly (e.g., overlook them; Harrist et al., 1997). Similarly, adult participants can detect their friends’ motivation to spend time alone (referred to as independence) with some accuracy (Huelsnitz et al., 2020). Generally, people accurately detect personality traits in a target person based on brief interactions or minimal information (Connelly & Ones, 2010Tskhay & Rule, 2014). Moreover, compared with other traits, extroversion (a related construct) is more visible and more accurately rated by perceivers (Connelly & Ones, 2010).

Another limitation in our experiments is that we measured participants’ ostracism intentions; yet intentions do not necessarily predict actual behavior (e.g., Ajzen, 1991). However, we speculate that there is a relatively strong link between ostracism intentions and behavior (vs. other active forms of exclusion such as physical aggression; Kerr & Levine, 2008). Ostracism does not require an action (Williams, 19972009). In fact, it may take minimal effort to engage in ostracizing (e.g., not saying hello; Kerr & Levine, 2008). In addition, the ambiguous nature of ostracism makes it hard to be documented and thus sources may not be held accountable. It has been shown that ostracism (vs. harassment) is perceived to be more socially acceptable and less regulated at the workplace (O’Reilly et al., 2015). Finally, people tend to underestimate others’ social sufferings caused by ostracism (Nordgren et al., 2011), suggesting that the act of ostracizing is believed to be relatively inconsequential, which may further contribute to the link between intentions and behavior.

In addition to the limitations of the experiments, we collected data from Western countries (the United States and the Netherlands) in all five studies. This puts constraints on the generalizability of the results to other cultural contexts. It has been observed that people in Western cultures are more encouraged to be sociable and expressive, whereas people from East Asian cultures are more encouraged to be shy and self-reflective (Chen, 2010Ding et al., 2015Oyserman et al., 2002). Consistent with this observation, past research has suggested that solitude is more valued and experienced more positively in East Asian cultures than in Western cultures (Jiang et al., 2019). Thus, solitude-seeking individuals might be perceived more positively and at less risk for ostracism in East Asian cultures versus Western cultures. These ideas point to a fruitful avenue for future research.

Finally, future research should examine whether or not people’s judgments of those who prefer solitude are accurate. Participants in our studies assumed that preference for solitude is an undesirable disposition in social interactions. They anticipated interactions to be unpleasant for themselves and for the target individual. But are these valid concerns? We speculate that people might over-rely on preference for solitude as a predictor of social interaction outcomes. Because preference for solitude is not an indicator of a lack of interest in social interactions (Coplan, Ooi, et al., 2019), the need to affiliate is a basic need that applies to everyone (Baumeister & Leary, 1995), and that the immediate impact of ostracism is universally aversive regardless of dispositional characteristics of the targeted individual (McDonald & Donnellan, 2012), it is likely that individuals with a high preference for solitude would enjoy social interactions as much as others. Dispelling these misconceptions of solitude-seeking individuals might be an effective strategy to promote inclusive behaviors.

Novel techniquest (exorcism) instead of the Salem witchcraft convictions could have conferred even greater wealth for the Puritan church; but exorcism was inferior to executions for the congregant-maximizing Puritan ministers

The economics of Puritanism’s treatment of bewitchment: exorcism as a potential market-pull innovation? Franklin G. Mixon Jr. & Kamal P. Upadhyaya. European Journal of Law and Economics volume 50, pp 203–222 (2020). May 26 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10657-020-09659-1

Abstract: A long history of research on the witchcraft hysteria in Massachusetts Bay Colony in 1692 contends that a group of Puritan ministers, including Salem Village’s Samuel Parris, developed and used the witchcraft hysteria in order to boost religiosity and church attendance in an effort to augment corporate and personal wealth. In carrying out this effort, these ministers pitted churched colonists against unchurched colonists, resulting in the wrongful convictions of 20 American colonials. This study argues that it might have ended without the executions of the colonists, and perhaps in even greater corporate wealth for the Puritan church, had Puritanism been receptive to the potential market-pull innovation represented by exorcism. Scrutiny of this proposition through the lens of rational choice theory suggests, however, that exorcism was inferior to executions as a technology choice for the congregant-maximizing Puritan ministers in Salem Village in 1692.



The Accuracy and of Personality Impressions from Faces, and the meta-accuracy (i.e., whether they are aware of their judgment accuracy), are both low

Jaeger, Bastian, Willem Sleegers, Julia Stern, Lars Penke, and Alex L. Jones. 2020. “The Accuracy and Meta-accuracy of Personality Impressions from Faces.” PsyArXiv. November 2. doi:10.31234/osf.io/4x7d8

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323191071401250818

Abstract: People spontaneously judge others’ personality based on their facial appearance and these impressions guide many important decisions. Although the consequences of personality impressions are well documented, studies on the accuracy of personality impressions have yielded mixed results. Moreover, little is known about people’s meta-accuracy (i.e., whether they are aware of their judgment accuracy). Even if accuracy is generally low, meta-accuracy would allow people to rely on their impressions in the right situations. In two studies (one preregistered), we examined the accuracy and meta-accuracy of personality impressions. We addressed three crucial limitations of previous studies (a) by incentivizing accuracy and meta-accuracy, (b) by relying on substantially larger samples of raters and targets (646 participants rating 1,660 faces), and (c) by conducting Bayesian analyses to also quantify evidence for the null hypothesis. Our findings consistently suggest that people show neither accuracy nor meta-accuracy when forming face-based personality impressions.



Sunday, November 1, 2020

Descriptive, Predictive and Explanatory Personality Research: Different Goals, Different Approaches, but a Shared Need to Move Beyond the Big Few Traits

Mõttus, RenĂ©, Dustin Wood, David M. Condon, Mitja Back, Anna Baumert, Giulio Costantini, Sacha Epskamp, et al. 2020. “Descriptive, Predictive and Explanatory Personality Research: Different Goals, Different Approaches, but a Shared Need to Move Beyond the Big Few Traits.” PsyArXiv. November 1. doi:10.31234/osf.io/hvk5p

Abstract: We argue that it is useful to distinguish between three key goals of personality science – description, prediction and explanation – and that attaining them often requires different priorities and methodological approaches. We put forward specific recommendations such as publishing findings with minimum a priori aggregation and exploring the limits of predictive models without being constrained by parsimony and intuitiveness but instead maximising out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We argue that naturally-occurring variance in many decontextualized and multi-determined constructs that interest personality scientists may not have individual causes, at least as this term is generally understood and in ways that are human-interpretable, never mind intervenable. If so, useful explanations are narratives that summarize many pieces of descriptive findings rather than models that target individual cause-effect associations. By meticulously studying specific and contextualized behaviours, thoughts, feelings and goals, however, individual causes of variance may ultimately be identifiable, although such causal explanations will likely be far more complex, phenomenon-specific and person-specific than anticipated thus far. Progress in all three areas – description, prediction, and explanation – requires higher-dimensional models than the currently-dominant “Big Few” and supplementing subjective trait-ratings with alternative sources of information such as informant-reports and behavioural measurements. Developing a new generation of psychometric tools thus provides many immediate research opportunities.


If it was possible to be presented with a comprehensive list of everyone who has thought about you while having sex, would you want to see it?; his guess is that the list would destroy us all

The Masturbation List - A thought experiment. Jack Pemment. Psychology Today, Oct 31, 2020. https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/blame-the-amygdala/202010/the-masturbation-list


Here’s a thought experiment for you.

It’s both at once amusing and terrifying, but as it’s Halloween, it’s the perfect time to share it with you.

If it was possible to be presented with a comprehensive list of everyone who has thought about you, either while masturbating or having sex, would you want to see it?

There is no way to feel neutral about this list.

Just pausing to imagine what names you might see on the list could at once be validating, but at the same time, horrifying. What if someone you once had a crush on is on the list, but then also someone you really don’t or didn’t like all that much?

This list would change your life. You might not be able to look at many of your colleagues the same way again. Do you have the kind of personality where this knowledge wouldn’t get to you? If somebody has had a sexual fantasy about you, without you, is that their privilege? Is it okay, but just as long as you don’t know about it? But now you do.

Would you be okay looking at the list, but with the caveat of being protected by it only covering up to five years previous? Looking back might be amusing, but seeing anyone on the list you still interact with in the present might be awkward and borderline traumatic.

But looking back, would you want to know who thought about you in a sexual fantasy when you had not yet come of age? If someone had been the same age as you, maybe you’d be comfortable with that, but what if they’d been quite a lot older than you?

What about how many people were on the list? If it was minimal, would you feel [...]


[Full text at the link above.]