Sunday, November 14, 2021

Rice farming in China had effects on polygenic scores for height, body mass index, depression, time discounting, reproduction, educational attainment, risk preference, alcohol metabolism capacity

Relationship between rice farming and polygenic scores potentially linked to agriculture in China. Chen Zhu et al. Royal Society Open Science, August 18 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210382

Abstract: Following domestication in the lower Yangtze River valley 9400 years ago, rice farming spread throughout China and changed lifestyle patterns among Neolithic populations. Here, we report evidence that the advent of rice domestication and cultivation may have shaped humans not only culturally but also genetically. Leveraging recent findings from molecular genetics, we construct a number of polygenic scores (PGSs) of behavioural traits and examine their associations with rice cultivation based on a sample of 4101 individuals recently collected from mainland China. A total of nine polygenic traits and genotypes are investigated in this study, including PGSs of height, body mass index, depression, time discounting, reproduction, educational attainment, risk preference, ADH1B rs1229984 and ALDH2 rs671. Two-stage least-squares estimates of the county-level percentage of cultivated land devoted to paddy rice on the PGS of age at first birth (b = −0.029, p = 0.021) and ALDH2 rs671 (b = 0.182, p < 0.001) are both statistically significant and robust to a wide range of potential confounds and alternative explanations. These findings imply that rice farming may influence human evolution in relatively recent human history.

3. Discussion

In sum, genetic data from over 4000 people across China produced evidence that genes for earlier reproduction and alcohol flush response were more common among people from areas with more historical rice farming. Rice farming was negatively associated with PGSs for educational attainment, although this relationship became marginal after controlling for the history of herding.

The effect of rice remained robust after controlling for individual demographic characteristics, ethnic make-up, a range of regional characteristics and potential self-selection into rice farming. Moreover, the large sample size of counties substantially increases statistical power and allows for greater control over confounding factors in the analysis. The results of this study suggest that a major cultural transition in human history had small but detectable effects on genes.

Researchers used to believe that evolution worked so slowly that meaningful changes were unlikely to have happened in the last 10 000 years of human history. But more recently, researchers have concluded that ‘evolutionary change typically occurs much faster than people used to think’. There is also evidence that human evolution actually sped up in the last 40 000 years [49]. If rice domestication selected for particular genes, it would fit with this emerging picture of relatively recent human evolution.

We should note several limitations in our data that point to possible future improvements. (i) The current study is based on a sample of 4101 observations, which may lack statistical power due to the small sample size. (ii) The GWAS summary statistics used to construct the PGSs in this study were mostly based on samples of European ancestry, which may lead to a Euro-centric bias and limit the predictive power constructed PGSs [14].4 (iii) Identifying regional ancestry through the place of birth is not perfect. This method may misidentify people whose recent ancestors moved large distances. (iv) We analysed genetic differences but not phenotypes or actual behaviour. Genetic propensities are not destiny. (v) We do not have DNA samples from historical periods (e.g. ancient DNA). If future researchers gain access to historical DNA samples, this will allow for a directly test or completely rule out of the reverse causality issue.

It is worth remembering that environment is not destiny, either. It would be overly simplistic to expect that exact same pattern of results everywhere people grow rice. There is ample evidence that the same type of environment does not always lead to the same culture. As one small example, how farmers dealt with peak labour demands in rice differed across cultures. While Chinese farmers preferred to trade labour with family members, West African rice farmers sometimes relied on groups of youths, who would move from farm to farm. Rice presents common challenges, but cultures' solutions to those challenges (and the genetic selection pressures that come along) may differ.

Finally, the finding of rice–wheat genetic differences presents a hint about a puzzle of modernization. As fewer and fewer people are farming in China, how is it that rice–wheat differences persist in modern China? Studies have found rice–wheat differences among people who do not farm [8,9]. Genetic differences present one possible mechanism—but surely not the only mechanism—through which historical differences in subsistence style live on in the present day.

Urbanicity is a growing environmental challenge for mental health; here, we investigate correlations of urbanicity with brain structure and function, neuropsychology & mental illness symptoms in young people from China & Europe

Global urbanicity is associated with brain and behaviour in young people. Jiayuan Xu et al, & CHIMGEN and IMAGEN Consortia. Nature Human Behaviour, Oct 28 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01204-7

Abstract: Urbanicity is a growing environmental challenge for mental health. Here, we investigate correlations of urbanicity with brain structure and function, neuropsychology and mental illness symptoms in young people from China and Europe (total n = 3,867). We developed a remote-sensing satellite measure (UrbanSat) to quantify population density at any point on Earth. UrbanSat estimates of urbanicity were correlated with brain volume, cortical surface area and brain network connectivity in the medial prefrontal cortex and cerebellum. UrbanSat was also associated with perspective-taking and depression symptoms, and this was mediated by neural variables. Urbanicity effects were greatest when urban exposure occurred in childhood for the cerebellum, and from childhood to adolescence for the prefrontal cortex. As UrbanSat can be generalized to different geographies, it may enable assessments of correlations of urbanicity with mental illness and resilience globally.


Women: Greater pleasure (autonomous) motives related to higher sexual assertiveness, which in turn related to higher orgasmic function in casual sex; greater insecurity (nonautonomous) motives related to lower sexual assertiveness

It’s The “Why”: Links between (Non)autonomous Sexual Motives, Sexual Assertiveness, and Women’s Orgasm in Casual Sex. Val Wongsomboon, Gregory D. Webster & Mary H. Burleson. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Nov 11 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10508-021-02103-8

Abstract: Existing literature shows conflicting and inconclusive evidence regarding women’s sexual experiences in casual sex. Some studies have found negative sexual outcomes (e.g., fewer orgasms), while others have found positive sexual outcomes (e.g., more orgasms, higher sexual satisfaction) when women had casual sex. According to self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985), people’s needs are fulfilled when their choice and behavior are self-motivated and reflect their intrinsic values. We hypothesized that women’s autonomous motivation to have casual sex would be associated with higher orgasmic function, whereas nonautonomous motivation would be associated with lower orgasmic function in casual sex. We also hypothesized that sexual assertiveness would mediate the relationship between sexual motives and orgasmic function in casual sex. Participants in this study were women (N = 401) aged 18–59 years who reported having had casual sex in the past 12 months. Participants completed an online survey reporting their motives to have casual sex, sexual assertiveness, and orgasmic function (e.g., orgasm frequency, satisfaction with orgasm) in casual sex. We focused on two motives: (a) pleasure motive and (b) insecurity (i.e., self-esteem boost and pressure) motive. Results showed that greater pleasure (autonomous) motives related to higher sexual assertiveness, which in turn related to higher orgasmic function in casual sex. In contrast, greater insecurity (nonautonomous) motives related to lower sexual assertiveness, which in turn related to lower orgasmic function in casual sex. The findings support self-determination theory, suggesting that autonomous motives are important for women’s sexual experience in casual sex.



Facial feminization surgery had success in achieving goals of minimizing mis-gendering in public (appropriately identifying trans-women as female), & reduction in dysphoric feelings (improved patient satisfaction)

Facial Feminization Surgery Review: Diagnosis, Preoperative Planning, Surgical Techniques, and Outcomes. Joshua Choe et al. Face, November 10, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/27325016211057299

Abstract: Facial Feminization Surgery (FFS) broadly encompasses a series of surgical procedures offered by craniomaxillofacial surgeons designed to modify facial features and transform both skeletal and soft tissues to create a more feminine appearance. Techniques, initially pioneered by Dr. Douglas Ousterhout, have been modified to include preoperative virtual planning and evolving aesthetic preferences. Computed Tomography (CT) imaging assists with morphologic typing of the brow, supraorbital, chin, and lateral mandible regions. Advancements in instrumentation increase the efficiency and accuracy of FFS procedures. More recently, trends in transgender acceptance have led to improved insurance authorization for FFS procedures. Objective outcome studies have shown success in achieving goals of (1) minimizing mis-gendering in public (appropriately identifying trans-women as female) and (2) reduction in dysphoric feelings (improved patient satisfaction).

Keywords: facial feminization surgery, FFS, transgender surgery, gender dysphoria, virtual surgical planning, facial features


Apis cerana workers apply materials (i.e. animal faeces in Vietnam, plant material in Japan) around nest entrances to repel giant hornets

Giant hornet (Vespa soror) attacks trigger frenetic antipredator signalling in honeybee (Apis cerana) colonies. Heather R. Mattila et al. Royal Society Open Science, November 10 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211215

Abstract: Asian honeybees use an impressive array of strategies to protect nests from hornet attacks, although little is understood about how antipredator signals coordinate defences. We compared vibroacoustic signalling and defensive responses of Apis cerana colonies that were attacked by either the group-hunting giant hornet Vespa soror or the smaller, solitary-hunting hornet Vespa velutina. Apis cerana colonies produced hisses, brief stop signals and longer pipes under hornet-free conditions. However, hornet-attack stimuli—and V. soror workers in particular—triggered dramatic increases in signalling rates within colonies. Soundscapes were cacophonous when V. soror predators were directly outside of nests, in part because of frenetic production of antipredator pipes, a previously undescribed signal. Antipredator pipes share acoustic traits with alarm shrieks, fear screams and panic calls of primates, birds and meerkats. Workers making antipredator pipes exposed their Nasonov gland, suggesting the potential for multimodal alarm signalling that warns nestmates about the presence of dangerous hornets and assembles workers for defence. Concurrent observations of nest entrances showed an increase in worker activities that support effective defences against giant hornets. Apis cerana workers flexibly employ a diverse alarm repertoire in response to attack attributes, mirroring features of sophisticated alarm calling in socially complex vertebrates.


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This study explores the signalling repertoire of A. cerana during naturally occurring attacks by two hornet predators that differ in the degree of threat they pose to colonies. At our study site in Vietnam, the deadliest hornet predator that A. cerana encounters is Vespa soror, a giant hornet that can decimate honeybee colonies through group predation [81,82]. A successful attack starts when a V. soror scout recruits nestmates to a prey colony, where together they kill many of the defending honeybees, occupy their nest and harvest undefended brood to feed their larvae. Vespa soror is not well studied, but it is morphologically and behaviourally similar to its better-known sister species, the giant hornet Vespa mandarinia [70,71,81–87]. By contrast to the two species of giant hornets, Vespa velutina is a smaller hornet that hunts solitarily by hawking individual honeybees while hovering in front of nests [72]. In the evolutionary arms race between predator and prey, A. cerana has evolved several colony-level defences to fend off hornet attacks. They often aggregate at the nest entrance as a first step [70,88,89], referred to as a ‘bee carpet’ in A. mellifera [90–93]. Once amassed, workers can engulf an individual hornet in a ball of hundreds of bees, simultaneously overheating and asphyxiating it [89,94–96]. Apis cerana workers apply materials (i.e. animal faeces in Vietnam, plant material in Japan) around nest entrances to repel giant hornets, a defensive behaviour that is not triggered by smaller hornets [82,97]. Groups of workers also perform coordinated body shaking in response to hornets, a visually intimidating display that deters attackers from approaching the nest [77,98–101].


Individuals recognize their lifestyle is more unsustainable than what is generally acceptable, yet they consider the lifestyle of others to be even more harmful; there are compensatory green beliefs on the biases in the estimated environmental impacts

Biased perception of the environmental impact of everyday behaviors. Laura Pasca & LucĂ­a Poggio. The Journal of Social Psychology, Nov 12 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2021.2000354

Abstract: Despite our concern about climate change, certain psychological barriers hinder the adoption of a pro-environmental lifestyle. In the present study (n = 186), we analyzed the participants’ estimates of the environmental impact of their lifestyles, compared to their moral standards and the perceived normative impact. Results show that individuals recognize their lifestyle is more unsustainable than what is generally acceptable, yet they consider the lifestyle of others to be even more harmful. Furthermore, we studied the role of compensatory green beliefs on the biases in the estimated environmental impacts. The results showed that individuals tend to consider that pro-environmental behaviors have a neutral environmental impact. Thus, our research suggests the existence of a bias in individuals’ perception of environmental impacts.

Keywords: Environmental impactmoral licensingclimate changecompensatory green beliefssocial norms



Saturday, November 13, 2021

Divorcees do not repartner with someone of the same personality as their ex-spouse, and they are in some cases constrained by marriage market forces to repartner with less stabilizing personalities

More of the Same? Comparing the Personalities of Ex-Spouse and New Partner after Divorce. Sascha Spikic, Dimitri Mortelmans and Dries Van Gasse. Soc. Sci. 2021, 10(11), 431; Nov 9 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10110431

Abstract: The similarity of the Big Five personality traits of ex-spouses and new partners was examined post-divorce. The notion that divorcees replicate their partner choice (fixed-type hypothesis) was tested against the hypotheses that they learn to select a new partner with more marriage-stabilizing personality traits than their former spouse (learning hypothesis), or are constrained by marriage market forces to repartner with someone who has less stabilizing personality traits (marriage market hypothesis). Data was derived from a Flemish study that sampled divorcees from the national register. The sample consisted of 700 triads of divorcees, their ex-spouses, and their new partners. The analysis results rejected the fixed-type hypothesis and instead supported both the learning hypothesis and the marriage market hypothesis, with higher order repartnering supporting the latter. Women also seemed to validate both hypotheses, as their partner comparison showed decreases in both stabilizing traits (conscientiousness and agreeableness) and destabilizing traits (neuroticism and extraversion). Overall, the results seem to suggest that divorcees do not repartner with someone of the same personality as their ex-spouse, and they are in some cases constrained by marriage market forces to repartner with less stabilizing personalities, while in other cases they are able to improve their partner selection.

Keywords: Big Five; ex-partner; new partner; personality; divorce




Do chimpanzees enjoy a virtual forest? A pilot investigation of the use of interactive art as a form of environmental enrichment for zoo-housed chimpanzees

Do chimpanzees enjoy a virtual forest? A pilot investigation of the use of interactive art as a form of environmental enrichment for zoo-housed chimpanzees. Yumi Yamanashi, Kazuki Hitoosa, Nobuaki Yoshida, Fumihiro Kano, Yuko Ikkatai, Hidefusa Sakamoto. American Journal of Primatology, November 11 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajp.23343

Abstract: Environmental enrichment is essential for the well-being of zoo animals. Recent advances in sensor and video technologies may contribute to improvements in enrichment in terms of their flexibilities and time constraints. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether interactive movie art can be used as a form of environmental enrichment. We implemented interactive movies designed by a professional artist, a visual art aiming to reflect naturalistic forest habitat, in an indoor chimpanzee enclosure at Kyoto City Zoo in Japan. Motion-tracking sensors embedded in buoys were installed at several locations around the indoor enclosure; the chimpanzees could change the movie contents by physically interacting with these objects. We recorded behaviors by observing entire troop of chimpanzees (six) between March 16 and 20, 2020 (control condition), then recorded behaviors when the interactive movie was presented (experimental condition) between March 21 and 29, 2020. Behaviors were recorded via direct observations and video recordings to examine any changes after the installation of interactive art. The chimpanzees spent more time in the indoor enclosures during the experimental condition than during the control condition. Activity budgets did not change substantially during the study period. There was no evidence of habituation to the movie during the study period. Three chimpanzees, including two young chimpanzees, interacted with the movie more frequently than the others; these young chimpanzees occasionally showed playful expressions when interacting with the movie and exhibited different reactivities to the movie scenes. These results demonstrate, first, that the interactive art did not negatively affect chimpanzee behavior, and second, that some of the chimpanzees indeed showed positive responses to the art. This study, therefore, introduces a novel possibility for environmental enrichment in zoos, involving a collaboration between science and art.


Research Highlights

.  We investigate whether technology-based interactive movie art can be used as a form of environmental enrichment by analyzing their behaviors.

.  The chimpanzees spent more time in the locations where the arts were presented and did not lose interest across the experimental condition. Two young chimpanzees particularly used it and showed play face in relation to the interactive arts.

.  These results demonstrate that the interactive art did not negatively affect chimpanzee behavior, and that some of the chimpanzees indeed showed positive responses to the art.


When and Why Does Gossip Increase Prosocial Behavior? When it is accurate rather than inaccurate; when targets are dependent on receivers rather than independent; when it is anticipated rather than actually experienced

When and Why Does Gossip Increase Prosocial Behavior? Annika S. Nieper et al. Current Opinion in Psychology, November 12 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.10.009

Highlights

• We review research on the effects of gossip on prosocial behavior.

• Empirical evidence shows that gossip can increase and decrease prosocial behavior.

• Gossip increases prosociality: 1) when it is accurate rather than inaccurate.

• 2) when targets are dependent on receivers rather than independent.

• 3) when it is anticipated rather than actually experienced.

Abstract: Understanding when people behave prosocially is integral to solving many challenges in groups and society. Gossip – the exchange of information about absent others – has been proposed to increase prosocial behavior, but findings are mixed. In this review, we illuminate the relationship between gossip and prosocial behavior, reconcile disparate findings, and suggest new directions for research. Our review reveals that gossip increases prosocial behavior to the degree that 1) it is accurate rather than inaccurate, 2) targets are interdependent with, rather than independent from, gossip receivers, and 3) targets anticipate that they might be gossiped about, rather than actually experience negative gossip. We discuss implications of our reviewed findings for understanding when gossip serves to uphold desirable behavior and when it inadvertently engenders undesirable behavior.

5. Conclusions and suggestions for future research

We reviewed empirical research on the link between gossip and prosocial behavior to illuminate when gossip promotes prosocial behavior and when gossip undermines it. Our review revealed three moderating factors that help to reconcile disparate findings: the accuracy of gossip, the interdependence structure between actors in the gossip triad, and whether gossip is actually experienced versus anticipated. The impact of these factors has so far been examined mostly in isolation. In future studies it would be interesting to investigate their joint impact as well as to identify further boundary conditions of the effects reviewed here. For example, we discussed how actually experiencing, rather than merely anticipating the possibility of, becoming the target of negative gossip lowers feelings of social inclusion in the group and thereby undermines prosocial behavior. Perhaps these effects are moderated by the perceived accuracy of gossip: If targets perceive the gossip about them to contain false information, they might feel that they have been wrongfully punished via gossip [38], which would reduce their prosocial behavior. Conversely, when targets perceive the gossip to be truthful, they might be inclined to attempt to repair their reputation by engaging in prosocial acts.

An additional moderator of the effect of actually experienced versus anticipated gossip might be the dependency on one's group members or the availability of alternative groups that gossip targets can join. If somebody learns that they have been gossiped about negatively by their group members, yet has no alternative groups to join, they may feel compelled to resolve the issues that sparked the gossip and restore their reputation rather than reduce their effort and detach from the group, which may result in targets increasing their prosocial behavior. In contrast, the presence of alternative groups might lead to reduced cooperation with the group in which one became the target of gossip and lead one to exit this group to join another group.

Another factor that might further influence the relationship between gossip and prosocial behavior is the visibility of prosocial behavior. If people want to restore their reputation or think they have been gossiped about negatively, they might be especially likely to decrease prosocial behaviors that are not very visible to others, while still trying to maintain visible prosocial behaviors that have reputational consequences. Future research could investigate such social dynamics to further understanding of how gossip influences prosocial behavior.

Going forward, we see a need for studies on gossip and prosocial behavior that combine experimental rigor with fine-grained analysis of gossip statements as they "naturally" occur. Such studies would allow researchers to examine how gossip senders construct gossip statements within different interdependence structures and provide insights into what elements of gossip statements lead recipients to be influenced by gossip, or rather, to discard it. As discussed earlier, to capture real-life gossip dynamics, researchers should additionally consider including a risk that gossip is transmitted to a relevant person when studying the consequences of gossip for the gossip target.

A final fruitful direction for future research is to examine what happens in situations in which prosocial behavior engendered by (the possibility of) gossip is harmful for society as a whole, for instance because it is unethical [[39][40][41]]. For example, in the case of corruption or "partnering in crime", helping another person has damaging effects for the broader collective. In such instances, gossip (or the threat thereof) could have adverse effects for society, because when gossip is present and people are therefore more concerned about their reputation [14,15], they are likely to act more in accordance with perceived social norms [21], potentially increasing prosocial unethical behavior. Furthermore, in terms of partner selection, gossip might enable corrupt people to find corrupt partners (e.g., when the Mafia seeks new members, gossip might inform them that someone is the right fit for their organization). Future research in those directions will help to further understand when gossip increases prosocial behavior and when it has adverse effects.

In closing, we have shown that gossip can but does not always stimulate prosocial behavior. Whether it does depends on gossip accuracy, the interdependence structure of the parties in the gossip triad, and whether gossip is actually experienced versus anticipated. We hope our review and research directions will spark new investigations that will further our understanding of when gossip increases prosocial behavior and when it does not.

We trace the origins of porn hypnosis, both in early cinema’s theorization of the hypnotic screen and also in mid-twentieth-century brainwashing paranoia, examining the ways that the evil hypnotist mythos built up during this period

Hypnosis and pornography: a cultural history. James Mackay & Polina Mackay. Porn Studies, Nov 11 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/23268743.2021.1978312

Abstract: A major form of porn creativity in the digital age has been the ‘hypno video’: a user-generated film mashing up short clips from various porn sources, accompanied by hypnotic imagery and sound, often designed with the overt intent to alter the viewer’s gender, racial or sexual preferences. These videos are highly popular, judging from view counts, although in most cases their effectiveness as hypnotic inductions is dubious at best. In this article, we discuss the science of hypnosis, and the reasons why ‘reprogramming’ videos are unlikely to have any basis in hypnotic practice. To understand the prevalence of this form, therefore, we trace the deep connections between hypnosis and pornography, showing that the highly subjective practice of hypnosis has consistently been associated with the erotic over at least the last two centuries. We trace the origins of porn hypnosis, both in early cinema’s theorization of the hypnotic screen and also in mid-twentieth-century brainwashing paranoia, examining the ways that the evil hypnotist mythos built up during this period and then became a staple of hardcore cinema. Finally, we discuss the function of hypnosis in porn, and the ways that porn hypnosis enables the viewer to overcome shame.

Keywords: Hypnosispornographymicropornographyshamemind controltransgender



Behavior causes: Phylogeny, natural selection, & genomics (ultimate causes); maturation, sensitive period effects, & routine environmental effects (intermediate); & hormonal/metabolic processes, neural circuitry, and eliciting stimuli (proximate)

Nine Levels of Explanation — A Proposed Expansion of Tinbergen’s Four-Level Framework for Understanding the Causes of Behavior. Melvin Konner. Human Nature, Nov 5 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12110-021-09414-8

Abstract: Tinbergen’s classic “On Aims and Methods of Ethology” (Zeitschrift fĂĽr Tierpsychologie, 20, 1963) proposed four levels of explanation of behavior, which he thought would soon apply to humans. This paper discusses the need for multilevel explanation; Huxley and Mayr’s prior models, and others that followed; Tinbergen’s differences with Lorenz on “the innate”; and Mayr’s ultimate/proximate distinction. It synthesizes these approaches with nine levels of explanation in three categories: phylogeny, natural selection, and genomics (ultimate causes); maturation, sensitive period effects, and routine environmental effects (intermediate causes); and hormonal/metabolic processes, neural circuitry, and eliciting stimuli (proximate causes), as a respectful extension of Tinbergen’s levels. The proposed classification supports and builds on Tinbergen’s multilevel model and Mayr’s ultimate/proximate continuum, adding intermediate causes in accord with Tinbergen’s emphasis on ontogeny. It requires no modification of Standard Evolutionary Theory or The Modern Synthesis, but shows that much that critics claim was missing was in fact part of Neo-Darwinian theory (so named by J. Mark Baldwin in The American Naturalist in 1896) all along, notably reciprocal causation in ontogeny, niche construction, cultural evolution, and multilevel selection. Updates of classical examples in ethology are offered at each of the nine levels, including the neuroethological and genomic findings Tinbergen foresaw. Finally, human examples are supplied at each level, fulfilling his hope of human applications as part of the biology of behavior. This broad ethological framework empowers us to explain human behavior—eventually completely—and vindicates the idea of human nature, and of humans as a part of nature.



I review, replicate and extend the analysis from seven econometric papers studying how events that happened to and values held by our ancestors affect their descendants several generations afterwards (intergenerational persistence)

Persistence - A critical review [abridged]. Jaime Sevilla. Nov 10 2021. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wWGi4jTNNMhz2pHhJ/persistence-a-critical-review-abridged. Full form: Persistence - A critical review

In short: I review, replicate and extend the analysis from seven econometric papers studying how events that happened to and values held by our ancestors affect their descendants several generations afterwards (intergenerational persistence). I argue that together the papers provide moderate evidence of the existence of long term causal effects mediated by parentage.

Keywords: persistence, cultural persistence, economic history, multiple hypothesis testing, post design power analysis, spatial autocorrelation bias, causality, natural experiments, instrumental variables.


Intergenerational persistence is an important topic for Effective Altruism, because it can help us understand how our actions today can affect many generations after. I undertook this research to help us shed light on whether cultural interventions (like increasing the degree at which present people value truth and cooperation) can be an effective way of affecting the long-term future.

The papers I review are:

  • The long term effects of Africa’s slave trades (Nunn, 2008) 
  • The slave trade and the origins of mistrust in Africa (Nunn & Wantchekon, 2011)
  • On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough (Alesina et al., 2013)
  • The Church, intensive kinship, and global psychological variation (Schulz et al., 2019)
  • Persecution perpetuated: The Medieval Origins of Anti-Semitic Nazi Violence (Voigtländer & Voth, 2012)
  • Trade, Institutions, and Ethnic Tolerance: Evidence from South Asia (Jha, 2013)
  • Long-term persistence (Guiso et al., 2016)


Highlights:

. I discuss a gold standard for cultural persistence studies, covering how to (1) identify robust long term correlations via regression studies under different sets of controls, (2) identify causal effects via natural experiments and (3) identify whether culture is a significant mediator via children-of-immigrant studies.

.  I find that many of the papers manage to find statistically significant results. A naive aggregation of the estimated correlation effect sizes suggests that future correlational studies might find effects of around β ≈ 0.28 (0.13) standard deviations per standard deviation of exposure variation. That is, future studies in similar topics should expect to find that one standard deviation of variation on an event would predict ~28% of variation in long term outcomes. However it is hard to rule out spurious correlations due to issues such as spatial autocorrelation or outliers.

.  Some of the papers attempt to study causation via natural experiments. While a couple of such papers arguably succeed in identifying a causal effect, we cannot discard that subsequent robustness checks will cast doubt on the results. We need better tools to study long term persistent effects. A naive aggregation of the estimated correlation effect sizes suggests that future causal studies might find effects of around β ≈ 0.11 (0.02) standard deviations per standard deviation of exposure variation. That is, future studies in similar topics should expect to find that one standard deviation of difference on an event would cause ~11% of variation in long term outcomes.

.  I find that children-of-immigrant analysis suggests the possibility of long term persistence of variation mediated by parentage. The authors of the papers tend to explain this persistence in terms of cultural variation, relying mostly on historical accounts as evidence.

.  Whether long term persistence of variation usually stays constant, wanes or increases with time is an open question. Studying better these dynamics of persistence would be critical to understand the very long-term impact of cultural interventions today.


These results suggest the possibility of sustained AI innovation under the Chinese regime: AI innovation entrenches the regime, and the regime’s investment in AI for political control stimulates further frontier innovation

AI-tocracy. Martin Beraja, Andrew Kao, David Y. Yang & Noam Yuchtman. NBER Working Paper 29466, November 2021. DOI 10.3386/w29466

Abstract: Can frontier innovation be sustained under autocracy? We argue that innovation and autocracy can be mutually reinforcing when: (i) the new technology bolsters the autocrat’s power; and (ii) the autocrat’s demand for the technology stimulates further innovation in applications beyond those benefiting it directly. We test for such a mutually reinforcing relationship in the context of facial recognition AI in China. To do so, we gather comprehensive data on AI firms and government procurement contracts, as well as on social unrest across China during the last decade. We first show that autocrats benefit from AI: local unrest leads to greater government procurement of facial recognition AI, and increased AI procurement suppresses subsequent unrest. We then show that AI innovation benefits from autocrats’ suppression of unrest: the contracted AI firms innovate more both for the government and commercial markets. Taken together, these results suggest the possibility of sustained AI innovation under the Chinese regime: AI innovation entrenches the regime, and the regime’s investment in AI for political control stimulates further frontier innovation.


Friday, November 12, 2021

Musical tastes fluctuate throughout the day: "By integrating an artificial neural network with Spotify’s API, we show a general awareness of diurnal preference in playlists"

Diurnal fluctuations in musical preference. Ole Adrian Heggli, Jan Stupacher and Peter Vuust. Royal Society Open Science, November 10 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210885

Abstract: The rhythm of human life is governed by diurnal cycles, as a result of endogenous circadian processes evolved to maximize biological fitness. Even complex aspects of daily life, such as affective states, exhibit systematic diurnal patterns which in turn influence behaviour. As a result, previous research has identified population-level diurnal patterns in affective preference for music. By analysing audio features from over two billion music streaming events on Spotify, we find that the music people listen to divides into five distinct time blocks corresponding to morning, afternoon, evening, night and late night/early morning. By integrating an artificial neural network with Spotify's API, we show a general awareness of diurnal preference in playlists, which is not present to the same extent for individual tracks. Our results demonstrate how music intertwines with our daily lives and highlight how even something as individual as musical preference is influenced by underlying diurnal patterns.

Statement of relevance: Today, most music listening happens on online streaming services allowing us to listen to what we want when we want it. By analysing audio features from over two billion music streaming events, we find that the music people listen to can be divided into five different time blocks corresponding to morning, afternoon, evening, night and late night/early morning. These blocks follow the same order throughout the week, but differ in length and starting time when comparing workdays and weekends. This study provides an extremely robust and detailed understanding of our daily listening habits. It illustrates how circadian rhythms and 7-day cycles of Western life influence fluctuations in musical preference on an individual as well as population level.

3. Discussion

In this work, we have shown that the rhythms of daily life are accompanied by fluctuations in musical preference. We show that the diurnal patterns of audio features in music can be treated as five distinct subdivisions of the day, with the musically meaningful distinction between them found in the range and distribution of the musical audio features. Our follow-up studies indicate that individuals hold a general awareness and agreement of diurnal musical preference in playlists consisting of multiple tracks, but that single tracks do not necessarily elicit the same diurnal associations. Taken together, this points to the circadian rhythms governing life being reflected in the highly individualized and often subjective preference for music.

The next step in this line of research would be to examine the degree to which the diurnal patterns documented herein reflect universal psychological phenomena in music perception. As previously discussed, some types of music often occur at a specific time of the day and often with a clear link to activities, with perhaps lullabies being a prime example. As lullabies are intended to ease falling asleep, they tend to occur at night and have been found to have partly universal features such as reduced tempo [4042]. If similar time-dependent songs could be collected into a database, it would then be highly interesting to investigate if the audio features of such songs match up with the features that drive the time-of-day preferences uncovered herein. Here, the Spotify API's ability to search user-made playlists for name and description is a highly productive approach, as shown in a recent study uncovering a large amount of variation in sleep music [43].

While the diurnal patterns in musical audio features uncovered in this work are robust and consistent with previous research, there are nonetheless limitations to highlight. In particular, our analysis has not addressed demographical and geographical influence on the results. In part, this is due to the lack of both demographical and individual-level information in the MSSD, and due to our data being based on Spotify, biasing the findings towards the population with access to the service. This means that our results are inherently biased towards Western culture, and we are unable to investigate factors such as age and occupation which have previously been found to impact listening behaviour [44,45]. We would encourage future research to work on combining datasets from multiple providers, such as QQ Music, Gaana and Boomplay, to ensure a wider geographical and cultural representation. Collating such datasets would require collaboration with the music streaming industry and work on harmonizing the many approaches to calculating musically meaningful audio features [46,47]. In addition, the audio features may miss out on nuances in high-level understanding of musical behaviour such as the behavioural functions of the music, and aspects of emotional content [48,49].

As a final note, we would highlight that this project has been carried out using open-source software and publicly available data, with all analysis and programming performed on laptop computers, and that the data collection processes in this work were undertaken without incurring any direct costs. This shows how the availability of digital traces from online activity can be used to investigate human behaviour by scientists both affiliated and independent alike [50].

Microbiome differences in autism spectrum disorder may reflect dietary preferences that relate to diagnostic features, and we caution against claims that the microbiome has a driving role in ASD

Autism-related dietary preferences mediate autism-gut microbiome associations. Chloe X. Yap et al. Cell, Nov 11 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.10.015

Highlights

• Limited autism-microbiome associations from stool metagenomics of n = 247 children

• Romboutsia timonensis was the only taxa associated with autism diagnosis

• Autistic traits such as restricted interests are associated with less-diverse diet

• Less-diverse diet, in turn, is associated with lower microbiome alpha-diversity

Summary: There is increasing interest in the potential contribution of the gut microbiome to autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, previous studies have been underpowered and have not been designed to address potential confounding factors in a comprehensive way. We performed a large autism stool metagenomics study (n = 247) based on participants from the Australian Autism Biobank and the Queensland Twin Adolescent Brain project. We found negligible direct associations between ASD diagnosis and the gut microbiome. Instead, our data support a model whereby ASD-related restricted interests are associated with less-diverse diet, and in turn reduced microbial taxonomic diversity and looser stool consistency. In contrast to ASD diagnosis, our dataset was well powered to detect microbiome associations with traits such as age, dietary intake, and stool consistency. Overall, microbiome differences in ASD may reflect dietary preferences that relate to diagnostic features, and we caution against claims that the microbiome has a driving role in ASD.

Discussion

In this large ASD stool metagenomics study in which confounders were carefully considered, we found negligible evidence for direct associations between the stool microbiome and ASD diagnostic status, which was also the case for other neurodevelopmental traits (e.g., IQ-DQ, sleep problems). For ASD, there was limited evidence for associations with taxonomic diversity or microbiome-association index (b2Figure 2), and only one differentially abundant species was robustly identified (Figure 3). These results were striking when compared to strong associations of microbiome composition with age, diet, and stool consistency (Figure 2). Importantly, we failed to replicate previously reported ASD-microbiome associations from human studies. Instead, we found evidence linking behaviors associated with the autism spectrum (e.g., repetitive-restricted behaviors or interests, sensory preferences, and social affect) to reduced dietary diversity, which, in turn, was associated with reduced microbiome diversity and looser stool consistency (Figure 4J). This putative model challenges suggestions from animal studies that the microbiome may be causally related to ASD-related traits (). Our findings also stand at odds to the proliferation of experimental interventions and early clinical trials that propose to “treat” ASD by targeting the microbiome ().
In contrast to measures of microbiome composition, ASD was robustly and significantly linked to dietary variables, irrespective of covariates (Table S3). We found (1) that significant variance in ASD diagnosis was associated with diet but not the microbiome in the b2 analysis (Figure 2), (2) reduced meat intake in the ASD group (Figure S5), and (3) reduced dietary diversity in the ASD group despite significantly higher variance in dietary diversity (Figure 4A), which is consistent with the dietetics literature () and some smaller ASD microbiome studies with dietary data ().
One rationale for the interest in the ASD microbiome is the frequent co-occurrence of gastrointestinal complaints (). In the absence of complete gastrointestinal complaint reporting, we analyzed stool consistency scores, with the caveat that it is unclear how this single-time point data reflects chronic conditions. Stool consistency appeared to be more proximal to taxonomic than dietary diversity, although we acknowledge that it is difficult to distinguish between a top-down (i.e., dietary and taxonomic diversity influencing downstream stool consistency) versus bottom-up (i.e., stool consistency being an upstream proxy) relationship. For the former, dietary restrictedness could plausibly affect gut ecology and taxonomic diversity, which in turn affects stool consistency. In relation to a bottom-up model, looser stool may indicate underlying food allergies or intolerances, which may be associated with deliberate (parental) dietary restriction to identify causative agents. Additionally, looser stool consistency reflects reduced gastrointestinal transit time and reduced colonic water reuptake (), which affects taxonomic diversity. As the narrow-sense heritability of gastrointestinal conditions that affect stool consistency (e.g., irritable bowel syndrome) are small (), environmental contributions likely predominate over genetics ().
Our results have important implications for understanding the role of the gut microbiome in ASD and other psychiatric traits. First, in relation to medical care, food selectivity among children on the autism spectrum is an important clinical concern. Food selectivity is related to avoidant/restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID; which is likely underdiagnosed despite affecting over 20% of autistic children []) and can cause nutritional deficiencies among autistic children () to the extent that hospitalization and invasive measures such as enteral feeding are required (). Our results also suggest that dietary quality is poorer in children on the spectrum (Methods S1). Given that elevated microbial diversity is robustly associated with improved health outcomes (), the association of ASD with poorer dietary quality and reduced dietary and taxonomic diversity underlines the importance of dietary and nutritional interventions in this population. Second, our results have implications for the interpretation of cause and effect in relation to diet in microbiome analyses in psychiatric conditions. There is growing interest in the contribution of diet and the microbiome to psychiatric traits (e.g., depression []), but our results emphasize the need to consider the (arguably more intuitive) impact of behavior on the microbiome (). These results add to other reports of diet driving microbiome associations with health ().
For future microbiome studies, we emphasize the importance of collecting detailed dietary data (recent examples []), particularly for ASD and other neuropsychiatric traits with plausible co-variation of diet with diagnosis or treatment. We advocate for larger sample sizes to ensure that results are robust to sampling effects and to identify subtler microbiome associations. We also recommend higher-resolution metagenomics technology and expanded databases since more granular taxonomic measures of microbiome composition were more sensitive (Table S1), gene-level ORMs explained more variance for some traits (Table S1), power to detect associations was weaker with the MetaPhlAn2/NCBI pipeline (Methods S1), and because taxonomic and functional datasets may capture complementary aspects of the microbiome (Figures S1 and S3).
In conclusion, we found negligible direct associations between ASD and the gut microbiome in contrast to strong associations with other phenotypes such as age, dietary variables, and stool consistency. Instead, we find evidence that restricted dietary diversity and poorer quality—which is associated with specific ASD features such as restrictive-repetitive behaviors—is a significant mediator of taxonomic diversity, and in turn, stool consistency. Our results are consistent with an upstream role for ASD-related behaviors and dietary preferences on the gut microbiome and are contrary to claims of the microbiome having a major (or causal) role in ASD.

 Limitations of the study

First, this study did not have a longitudinal design, so we cannot rule out microbiome contributions prior to ASD diagnosis. Second, although this is to our knowledge the largest metagenomics study of the ASD stool microbiome to date, there may nonetheless be sampling biases that require larger studies to overcome (). Third, this study used stool samples as a gut microbiome proxy, which may not accurately represent the more difficult-to-access mucosal microbiome (). Fourth, data on antibiotic intake in this cohort were not systematically collected and so could not be rigorously accounted for other than through exclusion in sensitivity analyses. Fifth, the gold-standard differential abundance analysis relied on per-feature tests that do not reflect the interactions and non-independence that occurs within an ecological or metabolic context. Finally, we await the emergence of datasets with comparable study design, consideration of confounders, and depth of phenotypic and metagenomics data for replication of these results.

Individuals with higher self-esteem had more lifelike and accurate images of themselves in their mind's eye

The Self in the Mind’s Eye: Revealing How We Truly See Ourselves Through Reverse Correlation. Lara Maister et al. Psychological Science, November 11, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976211018618

Abstract: Is there a way to visually depict the image people “see” of themselves in their minds’ eyes? And if so, what can these mental images tell us about ourselves? We used a computational reverse-correlation technique to explore individuals’ mental “self-portraits” of their faces and body shapes in an unbiased, data-driven way (total N = 116 adults). Self-portraits were similar to individuals’ real faces but, importantly, also contained clues to each person’s self-reported personality traits, which were reliably detected by external observers. Furthermore, people with higher social self-esteem produced more true-to-life self-portraits. Unlike face portraits, body portraits had negligible relationships with individuals’ actual body shape, but as with faces, they were influenced by people’s beliefs and emotions. We show how psychological beliefs and attitudes about oneself bias the perceptual representation of one’s appearance and provide a unique window into the internal mental self-representation—findings that have important implications for mental health and visual culture.

Keywords: self-representation, body, appearance, reverse correlation, personality, self-face, open data

We investigated how we see ourselves in our mind’s eye by creating visual images of individual participants’ mental representations of both their faces and their body shapes in a data-driven, unconstrained way, minimizing participant biases and experimenter assumptions. This technique produced rich, holistic, and multidimensional visual representations of the face and body, which we found not only carried accurate information about physical appearance but also provided novel insights into the way in which participants’ thoughts and feelings about themselves can color their self-image.

We observed clear interactions between the physical and psychological aspects of the self: Self-portraits of both the face and the body were significantly related to higher level, more abstract self-beliefs and attitudes. In Experiment 1, representations of one’s facial appearance were influenced by beliefs regarding one’s personality traits; for example, if a participant believed that they were highly extraverted, they also held an internal representation of their face that had exaggerated stereotypically extraverted facial features compared with their true appearance. In Experiment 2, we demonstrated similar results for perceptual representations of body shape: Participants with negative attitudes toward their bodies also held visual representations of their body’s physical appearance as wider and typical peers as slimmer, compared with participants who had more positive attitudes.

Until now, there has been little investigation of the interaction between physical and psychological selves, and most of the work that has been done has focused on the bottom-up effects of multisensory and sensorimotor contingencies on higher-level psychological self-representations (Preston & Ehrsson, 2014). Our work uniquely focuses on self-representations stored in long-term memory to point to a close, interactive relationship between physical and psychological representations of the self, consistent with an interactive hierarchical model of self-representation (as proposed by Sugiura, 2013). Higher level self-beliefs and attitudes may influence the perceptual quality of the self-portraits (via a top-down modulation during the reconstruction of these images; see Kosslyn, 2005), but conversely, the perceptual features of the physical self-representation might also lead to congruent inferences about one’s self-beliefs and attitudes. Indeed, evidence from studies on social perception supports a bidirectional causal relationship for our representations of others (Dotsch et al., 2008; Todorov et al., 2015); therefore, a similar bidirectional relationship with regard to self-representations may also be likely.

Although the results with regard to the relationship between physical and psychological self-representations were similar for faces and bodies, there were interesting differences. Participants’ representations of their facial appearance were clearly related to their real facial characteristics, showing a significant level of self-specificity. Classification studies, both using human participants and simulated using a face-recognition algorithm, confirmed that identity could be correctly classified from the self-portraits at well-above-chance levels. In contrast, participants’ perceptual representations of their bodies were less related to real body characteristics (e.g., actual body size) and were more strongly influenced by affective attitudes toward the self. This is consistent with previous evidence using single-dimension measures of body parts (Ben-Tovim et al., 1990) and brings into question the wide literature attempting to characterize perceptual body representations in eating disorders in terms of overestimation or underestimation biases (for a review, see Mölbert et al., 2017). However, it will be important to replicate the findings of both experiments using larger samples of more diverse participants before drawing conclusions. The generalizability of the present study may be limited. In Experiment 1, only young Caucasian adults were tested, and therefore it is necessary to follow up with studies using a wider range of ethnicities. Furthermore, in Experiment 2, only young adult women were tested, and their body size may have been relatively homogeneous compared with the general population.

Interestingly, individual differences in objective accuracy of the facial self-portraits were correlated with self-esteem, specifically with regard to social confidence. The higher an individual’s social self-esteem, the more objectively accurate their self-portrait was. This raises interesting considerations regarding the causal role of social interaction in the development and maintenance of self-representations. Social interactions are an important source of information about our appearance, via feedback on our appearance and via social comparisons (Cash et al., 1983). Therefore, individuals with higher social self-esteem may have engaged in more frequent, close social interactions and thus received more social input about their appearance, leading to more accurate self-perception. Alternatively, individuals with more accurate perception of their appearance may also have smoother, more reciprocal, and more predictable social relationships, leading to greater social confidence. For example, having an accurate perception of one’s own attractiveness may lead to more successful romantic interactions and a lower chance of being rebuffed by someone poorly matched (see Le Lec et al., 2017), leading to higher social self-esteem. Both of these potential explanations appeal to a long-term relationship between self-esteem and the development of an accurate self-face representation. However, it is important to note that in our study, we assessed state self-esteem rather than trait self-esteem. Although it is likely that state and trait self-esteem measures are highly correlated (e.g., see Heatherton & Polivy, 1991), future research may explore whether this finding holds for more stable aspects of self-esteem.

Our results are consistent with the findings of a very recent study, which also used the reverse-correlation technique to create visual self-face representations (Moon et al., 2020). In this study, links were found between the valence of the self-face representations generated, as rated by external observers, and various self-reported traits. Self-esteem, explicit self-evaluation, and extraversion were found to be linked to more positive or pleasant-appearing self-portraits, and social anxiety was related to more negative or unpleasant-appearing self-portraits. The authors concluded that the valence of self-face representations created in this manner was able to reflect the attitude toward self. In the present study, consistent with Moon et al.’s findings, our results also showed a significant association between self-reported psychological traits and the physical features of the self-face representation. However, our results further refine our understanding of this relationship by demonstrating that self-reported personality traits were not merely linked with the perceptual valence of self-face representations, as in Moon et al.’s study, but that individual personality traits were linked to specific facial configurations in the self-portraits that were recognizable as such by independent raters.

Our study further extends existing knowledge in several key ways. First, although Moon et al. (2020) measured participants’ perceptions of self-similarity with their own self-portraits, no work has yet been done to explore the actual accuracy of self-representations or to provide a well-controlled, unbiased assessment of their links to self-beliefs and attitudes. Here, we confirmed the validity of the reverse-correlation method in self-face representation research, demonstrating that the resulting images contain enough visual information to support recognition using subjective ratings from an independent sample of raters as well as objectively using simulated experiments implementing a face-recognition algorithm. Furthermore, when exploring whether these self-face representations are influenced by higher level self-processing, we controlled for real facial features, which is crucial to avoid confounds and to provide a valid, strict test of our hypothesis. Finally, we extended our investigation to consider not only face representations but also body shapes, which enriched and generalized our findings to lend support to a broader mechanism whereby beliefs and attitudes influence perceptual body representations.

In this study, we used a combination of objective, algorithm-based techniques and subjective personality ratings from human observers to analyze both the self-portraits and real photographs. It is possible that the human ratings of the real photographs may have been informed by superficial features of the faces, such as makeup, facial hair, and grooming habits, despite the participants providing the ratings being instructed to ignore such features. However, it is important to note that the effects of this potential source of information could not explain the key results reported here. Such effects would serve only to increase the correlation found between the personality ratings of participants’ real faces and their self-reported personalities. Importantly, it could not alter the relationship between the personality ratings of the self-portraits and the self-reported personality ratings, which is key for our hypothesis, because superficial features such as facial hair and makeup were not represented in the reverse-correlation images. This issue further reiterates the importance of carefully controlling for participants’ real facial ratings, which we ensured was done in each key analysis.

Both the approach we used to produce the self-portraits and our findings are highly relevant to our understanding of clinical disorders of body image, such as anorexia nervosa and body dysmorphia. Previous studies into these disorders have normally focused on online perception of the body or have used distorted images of the patients’ own bodies as stimuli, which did not allow for unbiased measurement (Smeets et al., 1999). Our approach could be used as a unique, direct method of assessing distortions in visual memory in these patients, allowing us to reveal whether they stem from higher level self-beliefs and attitudes or even a disorder in the link between these attitudes and the physical self-representation. This approach will also allow us to compare the effects of different treatments (e.g., those targeting perceptual distortions and those targeting emotional or cognitive aspects of the disorder) as well as assess the effects of treatment across time.

In conclusion, we present a novel way to visually depict how people see themselves in their mind’s eye and, in doing so, revealed visual clues to people’s deeply held self-beliefs and attitudes. Our mental images of our own appearance are fundamental to our understanding of some of the most severe mental disorders that are clustered under the term of body-image disorders. In addition, at a time when our culture is powered by images at an unprecedented level, and our obsession with our own image is evidenced in our social media use (Storr, 2018), our approach and the novel insights presented here pave the way for future explorations, in a data-driven, unconstrained, and richly detailed way, of how we mentally see ourselves.