Monday, April 18, 2022

Adverse mental health effects of spanking (delinquency, depression, and alcohol use) can be attributed to a considerable extent to hereditary similarities between parents and children

The effects of spanking on psychosocial outcomes: revisiting genetic and environmental covariation. Nicole Barbaro, Eric J. Connolly, Madi Sogge, Todd K. Shackelford & Brian B. Boutwell. Journal of Experimental Criminology, April 18 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-021-09496-5

Abstract

Background: There is a vast literature on the negative associations between spanking in childhood and various psychosocial developmental outcomes; yet, control for potential genetic confounds is rare.

Objectives: The current research aimed to provide probable ranges of estimates of the degree to which genetic and nonshared environmental covariation could explain the reported phenotypic effects in the Gershoff and Grogan-Kaylor (Gershoff and Grogan-Kaylor, Family Relations 65:490–501, 2016a, Gershoff and Grogan-Kaylor, Journal of Family Psychology 30:453, 2016b) meta-analysis of spanking.

Participants and setting: The analytic sample for Study 1 was secured from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (CNLSY) and consisted of 2868 respondents (siblings and half-siblings). The data for Study 2 were secured from the published literature.

Methods: Study 1 analyzed the data from the CNLSY using univariate ACE models and bivariate Cholesky decomposition models. Study 2 used simulation modeling to provide a summative evaluation of the psychosocial effects of spanking with regard to genetic and nonshared environmental covariation.

Results: Study 1 replicated previous work showing that associations between spanking and outcomes of delinquency, depression, and alcohol use were explained by moderate-to-large degrees of genetic covariation and small-to-moderate degrees of nonshared environmental covariation. Simulation estimates from Study 2 suggest that genetic covariation accounts for a substantial amount of the phenotypic effect between spanking and psychosocial outcomes (≈60–80%), with the remainder attributable to nonshared environmental covariation (≈0–40%).

Conclusions: Results of the current research indicate that continued work on the effects of spanking is best served by behavior genetic research on a broader range of outcomes than what is currently available.


Many atheists think of themselves as intellectually gifted individuals, guiding humanity on the path of reason. Scientific data shows otherwise.

Atheism is not as rare or as rational as you think. Will Gervais. Big Think, Apr 15 2022. https://bigthink.com/the-well/atheism-rare-rational

You are a member of a very peculiar species. Of all our quirks, the human religious impulse may be our most distinctive one. We build skyscrapers? Big deal, bowerbirds construct ornate decorative nests and they have brains the size of almonds. We live in really big societies? Great, so do ants, whose brains are even tinier. We can do math problems? Wonderful, but so can slime molds, and they don’t even have brains!

Religion: distinctively human 

Where humans often appear unique in some regard, a closer look usually shows us to be a mere outlier, rather than a genuine exception. This does not seem to be the case for religion. Most people who have ever lived believe in some sort of god; they are as certain of their gods as of their breath. But not a single organism outside our immediate evolutionary lineage has ever contemplated the existence of a god. Think about that for a moment: as far as we know, every single sentient being in the universe that has ever believed in a god is a member of our odd little species, and almost every member of our species has believed in a god. To scientists interested in evolution and human nature, religion is a puzzle that screams to be solved.


The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes due to the pandemic: Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period

“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries. Bart Hobijn. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Economic Letters 2022-08, Apr 2022. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/april/great-resignations-are-common-during-fast-recoveries/

The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.



Cannot confirm that always interactions between testosterone and cortisol are negative; sometimes there is a a positive feedback loop whereby elevated testosterone prompts increases in sexual desire and behavior, and cortisol helps in this

Associations Between Sexual Desire and Within-Individual Testosterone and Cortisol in Men and Women. Kevin A Rosenfield, Heather Self, Talia Shirazi, Rodrigo Cardenes, Justin Carré, Triana Ortiz, Khytam Dawood & David A. Puts. Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology, Apr 18 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40750-022-00184-w

Abstract

Objective: The dual-hormone hypothesis (DHH) posits that some effects of testosterone on human behavior and psychology related to status-seeking are moderated by cortisol, such that they are stronger when cortisol levels are low. In support of the DHH, studies have found that cortisol negatively moderated the relationship between testosterone and such traits as status-seeking and interest in uncommitted sex. Others indicate a positive moderating influence of cortisol in some cases. Here, we test whether two psychosexual indices—sexual desire and sociosexuality—meet the expectations of the DHH in a large sample of men and women.

Method: 646 women and 185 men attended lab sessions during which they provided saliva samples for hormonal analysis and responded to the Sociosexual Orientation Inventory-Revised and the Sexual Desire Inventory (180 women and 43 men returned for a second session approximately two months later). We quantified salivary hormone concentrations using ELISA and assessed within- and between-participant effects of hormones on psychosexual measures with mixed-effects models.

Results: We observed a positive interaction between within-subjects cortisol and testosterone in models of sexual desire in both men and women. For women, these effects emerged in models of general sexual desire and in models of the dyadic desire subscale and were robust to many analytical configurations. For men, the effects were limited to models of solitary desire, but were also robust to alternative analyses. We present data to quantify our risks of both type I and type II error.

Conclusions: Some of our results contrast with usual dual-hormone hypothesis predictions of negative interactions between testosterone and cortisol. We suggest several potential explanations for these results, including a positive feedback loop whereby elevated testosterone prompts increases in sexual desire and behavior, necessitating cortisol-induced mobilization of energy stores.



Sunday, April 17, 2022

Letters To A Spanish Youngster CCLXVI

Letters To A Spanish Youngster CCLXVI

[...]

Your Honor who even when absent gives some light to us Your admirers and followers,/Su Señoría que incluso cuando ausente da alguna luz a nosotros Sus admiradores y seguidores,

Reading some of ibn Gabirol's poems*, special person of my heart, the person of beautiful forms, is very inspiring:/Leer algunos de los poemas de ibn Gabirol, persona especial de mi corazón, la persona de bellas formas, es muy inspirador:

[Begging friends for pardon for not paying a visit/Disculpas a unos amigos por no ir a visitarlos]

                                                      ["Cual fuego es el anhelo      que tienes en la entraña".

                                                       Os he puesto mi llanto por respuesta,

                                                       si bien remedio alguno      no obtengo de mis lágrimas.

                                                       Pues ¿cómo llegaré,      amados, a vosotros

                                                       si entre nuestros amores      colinas se levantan

                                                       y no hay entre nosotros sino epístolas?]


[Waiting for truth to come to light/Esperando que la verdad salga a la luz]

                                                      [Con lágrimas copiosas

                                                       y el rostro enrojecido de vergüenza

                                                       por ti, te han contestado;      y estaban sus miradas

                                                       sombrías como nubes      repletas de rocío

                                                       que fueran a dejarlo      llover [...]:

                                                       —Seguimos manteniendo      el pacto del amor;

                                                       romper los juramentos no podemos.]


[Praising a poet/Alabanza a un poeta]

                                                      [[frente a los trabajos de los rivales]

                                                       [tus obras] hasta la postrera

                                                       generación han sido cincelad[a]s

                                                       con un punzón de hierro      y en mármol esculpid[a]s.]


The original were verses, not works generally./El original eran versos, no obras en general.


[Illness/La enfermedad]


                                                      [Piedad sobre piedad      añade cuando [me] juzg[ues]                                                       

                                                       [...]

                                                       [...] parecen parturientas

                                                       a quienes han asido      la angustia y el dolor.

                                                       [...]

                                                       Mas hoy han vacilado,      hermano, mis rodillas;

                                                       su puesto y su temblor      de ti se han ocultado.]


[The palace and the garden/El palacio y el jardín]

[Come, my friend, and friend to the spheres, [Ven, amigo, y amigo de las esferas,

come, we’ll rest by fields as we go—              ven conmigo a dormir en las aldeas, que

for winter has passed, and again we hear      ya pasó el invierno y se oyen en nuestra tierra

the call of swifts and doves.                          el clamor de zorzales y de tórtolas.

We’ll lie in the shadow of the apple & palm,   Dejemos que a la sombra del granado

pomegranate trees and citrus.                      de palmas, de manzanos y naranjos

                                                                  el sueño nos invada.

We’ll walk in the shade of the grapevine’s      Vaguemos a la sombra de las parras

                                                       [trellis,

longing for sight of illustrious faces                dejándonos vencer por el deseo

high on the hill over town in the palace           de contemplar imágenes radiantes

with massive foundations and towering walls. en un palacio erguido      sobre sus derredores.

[...]                                                              [...]

[...] and at dusk it recalls                               En los atardeceres su imagen es de cielo,

the panoplied sky with its stars in array:         de noche sus estrellas      en fila se alinean;

the hearts of all who enter are raised,             se encuentra bien en ella      el alma de los

the sorrows of the bitter and poor fade away.  míseros y de los afligidos y

                                                                    los olvidan los amargos y exangües sus pesares.

My troubles vanished when it came into view, La he visto y mis fatigas he olvidado;

and my heart in its straits took comfort—        de angustias consolose mi alma, y de alegría

was nearly lifted away with joy,                       mi cuerpo como en alas de azores, casi vuela.

as though on the wings of an eagle.

[...]                                                               [...]

we lure others’ hearts with their spell—           las almas embrujamos,

[...]                                                               [...]

a priceless soul, a gem to the sky,                 Diadema de los cielos, sensible, generoso;

he fulfills his pledges without any vows.]         con las promesas cumple como si fueran votos.]


[On an ill friend/Sobre un amigo enfermo]

                                                                  [En verdad que no puede un hermano

                                                                   redimir a su hermano; [...]

                                                                   [...]

                                                                   Si pudiera librarse el humano,

                                                                   tu rescate en la muerte estaría,

                                                                   ¡oh, señor de mi alma!, en mi espíritu.

                                                                   Pero ruego de Dios el remedio;

                                                                   que la paz sea contigo y que halles

                                                                   una bizma para tu dolencia.]



[In praise of a friend/Alabando a un amigo]


                                                                 [Angustia del deseo      y amores juveniles

                                                                 dejáronme sin alma entre las gentes.

                                                                 A causa de las puertas      de amores clausuradas

                                                                 quedáronse mis ojos      abiertos del insomnio,

                                                                 y puso Dios sus astros a mi lado

                                                                 cual si pastor yo fuera      y aquéllos los rebaños.

                                                                 Como al probado Abraham      a mí me puso a prueba,

                                                                 diciéndome: "Alza y cuenta      lo que es innumerable".

                                                                 El ver estas congojas y otras tales

                                                                 me arrastra malamente,      amigo, hacia la tumba;

                                                                 las ansias me han cercado,      me tienen oprimido

                                                                 y me han acrisolado      en horno siete veces.

                                                                 [...]

                                                                 ¿Y que diré al respecto      del ensalzado? ¿Y cómo

                                                                 hablar, si mis ideas      menguadas han quedado?]


Suffering much for the distance, the many weeks without Your light, weeping gently when thinking of Your voice and Your   ҉  eyes  ҉  , Yours faithfully/Sufriendo mucho en la distancia, las muchas semanas sin Su luz, llorando suavemente cuando pienso en Su voz y Sus   ҉  ojos  ҉  ,

                 a. r. ante Su Señoría

--

Notes


*  Adapted from Selected Poems of Solomon ibn Gabirol, translated by Peter Cole (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 2001), & the Spanish version from Selomó ibn Gabirol—Poesía secular, by Elena Romero (Madrid: Alfaguara, 1978)


Passage of rent control in St. Paul, Minnesota in 2021: To the extent that rent control is intended to transfer wealth from high-income to low-income households, the realized impact of the law was the opposite of its intention

Ahern, Kenneth Robinson and Giacoletti, Marco, Robbing Peter to Pay Paul? The Redistribution of Wealth Caused by Rent Control (March 18, 2022). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4061315

Abstract: We use the price effects caused by the passage of rent control in St. Paul, Minnesota in 2021, to study the transfer of wealth across income groups. First, we find that rent control caused property values to fall by 6-7%, for an aggregate loss of $1.6 billion. Both owner-occupied and rental properties lost value, but the losses were larger for rental properties, and in neighborhoods with a higher concentration of rentals. Second, leveraging administrative parcel-level data, we find that the tenants who gained the most from rent control had higher incomes and were more likely to be white, while the owners who lost the most had lower incomes and were more likely to be minorities. For properties with high-income owners and low-income tenants, the transfer of wealth was close to zero. Thus, to the extent that rent control is intended to transfer wealth from high-income to low-income households, the realized impact of the law was the opposite of its intention.

Keywords: Rent control, real estate valuation, wealth transfers

JEL Classification: R31. R38, G51


16,699 active duty service members in U.S. military: The Air Force had the lowest rates of nearly all substance use and mental health outcomes; many outcomes were 2-3 times higher among Army, Marine Corps & Navy, after adjustment

Military service branch differences in alcohol use, tobacco use, prescription drug misuse, and mental health conditions. Megan S. Schuler, Eunice C. Wong, Rajeev Ramchand. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, April 15 2022, 109461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2022.109461

Highlights

• Study population include 16,699 active duty service members in U.S. military

• We test for differences across service branch in substance use and mental health outcomes

• The Air Force had the lowest rates of nearly all substance use and mental health outcomes

• Many outcomes were 2-3 times higher among Army, Marine Corps and Navy, after adjustment

• Differences are not fully explained by branch differences in deployment/combat experiences

Introduction: Rates of substance use and mental health conditions vary across military service branches, yet branches also differ notably in terms of demographics and deployment experiences. This study examines whether branch differences in substance use and mental health outcomes persist after adjustment for a comprehensive set of demographic and deployment-related factors.

Methods: Data on 16,699 Armed Forces Active Duty service members were from the 2015 Department of Defense Health Related Behaviors Survey. Service branch-specific prevalences were estimated for self-reports of heavy episodic drinking (HED), possible alcohol use disorder (AUD), current smoking, e-cigarette use, smokeless tobacco use, prescription drug misuse, probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), probable depression, and probable anxiety. Using logistic regression, we assessed whether branch differences persisted after adjusting for an extensive array of demographic factors (among full sample) and deployment/combat factors (among ever-deployed subgroup).

Results: HED, AUD, smoking, e-cigarette use, smokeless tobacco use, depression, and anxiety were highest in the Marine Corps; prescription drug misuse and PTSD were highest in the Army. HED, AUD, smoking, smokeless tobacco use, PTSD, depression, and anxiety were lowest in the Air Force; e-cigarette use and prescription drug misuse were lowest in the Coast Guard. Demographics and deployment/combat experiences differed across branches. After adjustment, service members in the Army, Marine Corps and Navy exhibited nearly 2-3 times the odds of multiple mental health conditions and substance use behaviors relative to the Air Force.

Conclusion: Service branch differences were not fully explained by variation in demographics and deployment/combat experiences.

Keywords: militaryactive dutyalcoholtobaccoprescription drug misuseanxietydepressionpost-traumatic stress disorder


Saturday, April 16, 2022

Analyses from >100 species of birds & mammals revealed robust positive correlations between yawn duration and brain mass and overall & cortical/pallium neuron totals; the observation of yawning in conspecifics selectively enhances vigilance

The causes and consequences of yawning in animal groups. Andrew C.Gallup. Animal Behaviour, Volume 187, May 2022, Pages 209-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2022.03.011 

Highlights

• Yawning is a highly conserved neurophysiological adaptation among vertebrates.

• The detection of yawning appears to be biologically important in social species.

• The observation of yawning in conspecifics selectively enhances vigilance.

• Yawn contagion appears to function in promoting motor synchrony in groups.

Yawning is a stereotyped action pattern that is prevalent across vertebrates. While there is growing consensus on the physiological functions of spontaneous yawning in neurovascular circulation and brain cooling, far less is known about how the act of yawning alters the cognition and behaviour of observers. By bridging and synthesizing a wide range of literature, this review attempts to provide a unifying framework for understanding the evolution and elaboration of derived features of yawning in social vertebrates. Recent studies in animal behaviour, psychology and neuroscience now provide evidence that yawns serve as a cue that improves the vigilance of observers, and that contagious yawning functions to synchronize and/or coordinate group activity patterns. These social responses to yawning align with research on the physiological significance of this behaviour, as well as the ubiquitous temporal and contextual variation in yawn frequency across mammals and birds. In addition, these changes in mental processing and behaviour resulting from the detection of yawning in others are consistent with variability in the expression of yawn contagion based on affinity and social status in primates. Topics for further research in these areas are discussed.

Keywords: arousalcircadian rhythmscollective behaviourmotor synchronystate changestressthermoregulationvigilance

Summary and future directions

Yawning is a neurophysiological adaptation that is omnipresent across vertebrates (Massen et al., 2021), and the detection of this action pattern in others appears to be biologically important among social species (Tsurumi et al., 2019). Moreover, recent studies indicate that yawning serves as a cue that enhances individual vigilance and promotes motor synchrony through contagion (see Fig. 1 for a graphic illustration of these processes). However, additional research is needed to replicate and further examine the nature of these effects, as well as investigate potential comparative differences in these responses based by on ecological factors and evolutionary history. In particular, future studies could examine how exposure to yawns alters the detection of threatening stimuli across different species, as well as how experimentally induced yawn contagion influences different patterns of motor synchrony and group coordination among human and nonhuman animals in the laboratory. In addition, naturalistic studies could investigate how the detection of yawning alters scanning rates and vigilance monitoring in free-moving groups, as well as how yawning and other patterns of behavioural contagion influence collective movement across different species. For example, among many species, yawning and stretching tend to co-occur, and both behaviours have been found to be contagious in budgerigars (Gallup et al., 2017Miller, Gallup, Vogel, Vicario, et al., 2012). Since yawn and stretch contagion could have similar functions among animal groups in initiating collective action, future research could assess whether behavioural contagion in general is a key feature in initiating synchrony.

Figure 1Figure 1

The current evidence suggests that yawning serves as a cue rather than as a signal, but future studies could further examine whether spontaneous yawns evolved specifically to communicate internal states and/or alter the behaviour of observers in some species. For example, studies could investigate whether yawning occurs more readily in the presence of others and in contexts in which synchrony and/or vigilance would be most advantageous to the group. In addition, researchers could examine patterns in the variability of yawn expression. A recent study on macaques (Macaca tonkeana and M. fuscata) suggests differences in the morphology and duration of yawning are predictive of the contexts in which this behaviour arises (Zannella et al., 2021), so follow-up studies could also assess how different types of yawns differentially impact the subsequent vigilance behaviour and synchronization of observers. Similarly, researchers could assess differences in yawn-induced changes in behaviour based on the presence or absence of auditory cues. Vocal components to yawning appear to be common among humans and nonprimates (e.g. Massen et al., 2015Palagi et al., 2009), yet seem unnecessary for the physiological function(s) of this action pattern. Thus, studies could investigate the factors that contribute to variation in vocal yawning and how the social outcomes of yawning vary based on visual and/or auditory detection.

Further examination of yawning in animals could provide important insights into the social role of this behaviour and its function in altering group dynamics, which could in turn offer applications for improving performance in surveillance settings and organized group activities in our own species. Based on what is already known about the social nature of yawning, it appears time to systemically examine some of the more overt social features of this behaviour in humans. This includes the stigmatization of yawning in some cultures (Schiller, 2002), which leads to the active concealment (Schino & Aureli, 1989) and/or inhibition of yawning when in the presence of others (Gallup, Church, Miller, et al., 2016Gallup et al., 2019). For example, further research is needed to fully understand and disentangle the potential physiologic and social causes and consequences of inhibiting spontaneous and contagious yawning in groups. In line with the comparative perspective highlighted throughout this review, the bridging of both human and nonhuman animal research will provide the most comprehensive understanding of this evolutionarily conserved behaviour.

Results suggested that people were less ready to commit to a romantic relationship to the extent that they perceived they had many partners available to them

Playing the field or locking down a partner?: Perceptions of available romantic partners and commitment readiness. Ashlyn Brady et al. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Volume 101, July 2022, 104334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104334

Abstract: People often consider how ready they feel for a committed romantic relationship before initiating one. Although research has only begun to identify the antecedents of commitment readiness, several theoretical perspectives suggest that it should be shaped by the perceived frequency of available partners. We conducted five studies (one correlational, four experimental) that tested this idea among single people. A Pilot Study assessed participants' perceptions of available romantic partners and their commitment readiness. In the subsequent four experiments, participants read articles (Studies 1a and 1b) or created dating profiles and were presented with false feedback (Studies 2 and 3) that influenced perceptions of available partners and reported their commitment readiness. Results suggested that people were less ready to commit to a romantic relationship to the extent that they perceived they had many partners available to them. These results further understanding of factors that promote the decision to initiate a committed relationship.

Keywords: Commitment readinessRelationship initiationRomantic relationshipsAvailable partnersCommitment


Women enjoyed higher levels of purpose in life; & were more likely to have altruistic behaviors and attitudes, which in turn facilitated a stronger purpose in life

From 2018... Gender Differences in Purpose in Life: The Mediation Effect of Altruism. Juan Xi et al. Journal of Humanistic Psychology, Jun 7, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022167818777658

Abstract: A strong meaning or purpose in life, as a key indicator for psychological well-being, has been found to enhance health and longevity in a large amount of empirical research. In this study, we focus on gender differences in purpose in life. Using a large nationally representative sample, we found that women enjoyed higher levels of purpose in life. We further examined the role of altruism in accounting for much of the gender differences in life purpose. Women were more likely to have altruistic behaviors and attitudes, which in turn facilitated a stronger purpose in life. Our study suggests that men could plausibly attain a similar level of purpose in life if social norms encouraged men to nurture the growth of others through altruistic acts to the same extent as women.

Keywords: purpose in life, altruism, gender


The widespread public scepticism about Darwinism in most developed countries can be understood in terms of the counter-intuitive nature of the theory – we experience species as fixed and distinct in kind, not changing and only quantitatively different – and lack of education about the fundamental concepts

Darwinian explanations and socio-cultural processes: A synthesis. Daniel Nettle. Before 2008? https://doc4pdf.com/761219-darwinian-explanations-and-sociocultural-processes-a-synthesis-daniel-nettle.html

1. The problem

Darwin’s theory of evolution, in particular as it has emerged from the synthesis with Mendelian genetics in the 1930s and the clarification of the levels of selection issue in the 1960s, is the most important – ultimately, the only – deep-level theory in the life sciences. It provides a unification of the various disciplines of biology around a common set of explanatory principles which are demonstrably correct. As the great Theodosius Dobzhansky put it, ‘Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution’ (Dobzhansky 1973).  The various forms of intellectual critique of Darwinian theory in general - rather than particular local predictions derived from it - collapse under close scrutiny, and their persistence can be attributed to ideological and historical antipathies rather than any scientific substance (see Dennett 1995, Kitcher 2007, for some discussion, and Wilson 2007 for a readable introduction to modern Darwinism). The widespread public scepticism about Darwinism in most developed countries (Miller, Scot & Okamoto 2006) can likewise be understood in terms of the counter-intuitive nature of the theory – we experience species as fixed and distinct in kind, not changing and only quantitatively different – and lack of education about the fundamental concepts, rather than any flaws in the theoretical edifice. The social and human sciences provide an interesting contrast with the rest of the life sciences. For one thing, they lack a unifying theory, and exist as a more or less untranslatable set of local principles used within one discipline or one part of a discipline (Hermann-Pillath 1994, Wilson 1998, Barkow 2006). It is quite common for social science textbooks to present a number of meta-theoretical approaches, usually associated with particular influential individuals, without providing any criteria for adjudicating between them, leading to the impression that paradigmatic issues are a matter of taste rather than truth. Under these conditions, there is a continual splitting of sub-disciplines and problematizing of approaches, along with frequent statements that this or that field is in crisis, and the human sciences languish whilst the biological sciences, bold and theoretically self-confident, occupy ever more of the pages of influential journals. 


Friday, April 15, 2022

Higher intelligence is robustly related to greater tolerance of disliked groups

Lasker, Jordan, and Jon McNaughtan. 2022. “Assessing the Robustness of the Relationship Between Tolerance and Intelligence.” PsyArXiv. April 14. doi:10.31234/osf.io/dpx74

Abstract

Introduction: Individual differences in intelligence have been repeatedly found to be positively related to tolerance towards, and support for, the rights of groups different from one’s own. These findings hold true even when considering groups individuals dislike. This relationship has been explained in terms of both direct effects – whereby more intelligent people form more cognitive and less visceral opinions about other groups – and indirect ones, where the relationship represents the effects of phenomena like education or urban living, that have also been argued to give rise to higher intelligence and greater tolerance for others.

Methods: To assess the robustness of this association to a plethora of common alternative explanations, we conducted a Specification Curve Analysis with the data from the U.S.-based General Social Survey (Nspecification max >15000). This method fits all possible configurations of a model that are possible with a set of variables, making it uniquely well-suited for robustness testing. 

Results: We found that the relationship was almost wholly robust to many alternative explanations, and in those cases where the relationship became null, it was likely the result of small sample sizes for a given specification.

Conclusion: Intelligence and tolerance are strongly and consistently related.


Fake Independents, who claimed independence but who voted straight ticket, in most cases preferred Democrats, acted very much like Liberals in stated values and concerns, had aversion to being bound to a party

This party stinks: Self-definitions and justifications of the politically unaffiliated. Daniel M. Rempala & Bradley M. Okdie. Current Psychology, Apr 13 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-022-03097-9

Abstract: Politically unaffiliated, or “independent,” voters are accorded great importance in electoral contexts because of their presumed persuadability. However, this category remains poorly defined. Using online survey data collected after the 2018 U.S. midterm elections (Study 1) and 2020 U.S. general election (Study 2), we separate political independents into distinct subcategories based on language used to describe their political beliefs and behavior, and analyze their motivations using open-ended self-justifications, the Moral Foundations Questionnaire, and political engagement measures. We identified three distinct groups of independents. Pure Independents self-identified as “independent” and lingered between the liberal and conservative poles on virtually all political engagement and moral foundations measures. Default Independents, unaffiliated participants who did not self-identify as “independent” and were low on moral foundations and political engagement measures. Fake Independents, unaffiliated participants who voted straight-ticket, provided results similar to Liberals and viewed the Democratic Party as the only voting option available. These data show the diversity of those who claim political independence and offer insights into conceptualizing political independence.


Thursday, April 14, 2022

Germany: Women rate the reputation of housewives considerably worse than men do

Das Ansehen von Hausfrauen in Deutschland – Eine quantitativ-empirische Analyse differenzieller Wahrnehmungen / The Prestige of Housewives in Germany—A Quantitative–Empirical Analysis of Differential Perceptions. Katrin Stache, Christian Ebner & Daniela Rohrbach-Schmidt. KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, Apr 12 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11577-022-00819-6

Abstract: The employment rate of women has increased markedly over the past decades, both internationally and in Germany, whereas the classic male breadwinner model is eroding. Against this background, using current survey data, the aim of this study is to examine the social prestige of the shrinking group of housewives whose main activity is domestic and family work. The analyses address, on the one hand, the question of how high their reputation is generally rated by the population in Germany and, on the other hand, whether the perceptions differ systematically by raters’ sociodemographic characteristics. The empirical findings show that the reputation of housewives in Germany is generally rated higher than that of the unemployed and of those in helper jobs but lower than for those in professional jobs at the skilled level. Moreover, the assessments of housewives’ prestige vary significantly according to the social group (birth cohort, level of education, labor force participation, gender) to which the respondents belong. Further analyses of interaction effects also reveal a differentiated interaction of the gender variable with the other structural group characteristics. The paper concludes with a detailed discussion of the results and an outlook on future research.


We found that change in self-reported sexual orientation was not reflected in genital arousal, providing tentative support for the notion that self-reports may overestimate change in sexual orientation

Stability and Change in Sexual Orientation and Genital Arousal over Time. Dragos C. Gruia, Luke Holmes, Jaime Raines, Erlend Slettevold, Tuesday M. Watts-Overall & Gerulf Rieger. The Journal of Sex Research, Apr 12 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224499.2022.2060927

Abstract: Longitudinal work suggests that sexual orientation can change over time in men and women. These studies, however, may be susceptible to the bias of self-report. The current study therefore examined self-reported sexual orientation in addition to an objective correlate: genital arousal to erotic videos showing males or females. For 52 men (19 heterosexual, 19 bisexual, 14 homosexual) and 67 women (31 heterosexual, 18 bisexual, 18 homosexual), these measures were taken twice, with approximately 1 year between sessions. For self-reported sexual orientation, women reported lower relative stability (weaker correlation) than men over time, even though women did not change more overall (no stronger mean difference) than men between sessions. Bisexual individuals reported lower relative stability and more mean change than heterosexual and homosexual individuals. For genital arousal, across all groups, response patterns were correlated over time to a similar extent and showed little difference between sessions. Moreover, change in self-reported sexual orientation did not correspond with the change in genital arousal, regardless of sex. Perhaps self-reports overestimate changes in sexual orientation, since these changes were not reflected in physiological sexual response.

Discussion

The present study examined: (a) the correlation of self-reported sexual orientation and arousal over time, (b) the mean change in orientation and arousal over time, and (c) the link between change in self-reported sexual orientation and change in sexual arousal. Before addressing any effects of time, it is worth examining the results by session. In general, patterns of sexual arousal in the present study were in agreement with those previously reported (Raines et al., 2021; Rosenthal et al., 2011). That is, heterosexual and homosexual men showed a strong preference for their preferred sex, while bisexual men, as a group, showed arousal to both sexes. Across sexual orientations, women showed arousal both to the same sex and other sex; however, homosexual women showed a slight tendency in arousal toward the same sex. One unexpected result was found in Session 1, where bisexual women showed somewhat less bisexual arousal than heterosexual women, if not homosexual women. It is unclear why this pattern occurred, and it was no longer the case in Session 2 (Figure 3).

With respect to relative stability (correlation) of self-reported sexual orientation over time, our results were similar to those found in a previous longitudinal study (Savin-Williams et al., 2012): (1) sexual orientation was relatively stable, overall, as suggested by the correspondence between sessions, (2) women, in general, showed lower relative stability than men, and (3) bisexuals, irrespective of sex, reported lower relative stability than other sexual orientations. For sexual arousal we also found overall relative stability, but it was weaker than for sexual orientation. Moreover, a sex difference in relative stability was only apparent in one of the two measures of arousal, and no significant differences in relative stability were found between bisexuals and monosexuals.

With respect to change (mean difference), for self-reported sexual orientation, our results were somewhat in agreement with previous work, but not entirely so (Mock & Eibach, 2012; Ott et al., 2011; Savin-Williams et al., 2012): (1) even though we did not find directional change over time, on average, there was non-directional change in participants’ sexual orientations, (2) even though women did not exhibit more non-directional change than men, the difference was in the predicted direction, and (3) bisexual individuals changed non-directionally more than other sexual orientations. Regarding mean change in sexual arousal, our results only partially mirrored findings for sexual orientation: (1) non-directional mean change in sexual arousal occurred, on average, but (2) women did not change more than men, and (3) bisexual individuals did not change more than monosexuals. In sum, 5 out of 6 of our predictions related to relative stability and to change were confirmed for self-reported sexual orientation, whereas only 2 out of 6 were fully confirmed across measures of genital arousal.

Taken together, the current data were able to largely replicate previous findings with respect to self-reported sexual orientation, but this was not reflected in sexual arousal. There are several ways in which we can interpret the lack of change in arousal: One interpretation is that the assessment of physiological sexual arousal is subject to more measurement error than self-reports, which could weaken any true patterns in arousal (i.e., correlation, mean change). An alternative interpretation is that longitudinal patterns observed in self-reports provide an over-estimation of the actual change in self-reported sexual orientation. This is not to say that change in sexual orientation does not exist, but rather that change may be rarer than suggested by self-report. Finally, it may be that change in self-reported sexual orientation truly happens subjectively but is not reflected by any corresponding change in physiological responses. Limited support for this assumption comes from one of our null findings, which indicated that change in self-reported sexual orientation was unrelated to change in sexual arousal.

Other limitations of this work need to be considered. It may be that with our sample, the proportion of individuals who exhibited a change in sexual arousal (or orientation) is simply too small to detect any reliable patterns. For instance, we can see in Figures 3a and 3b that bisexual men responded more to their less-arousing sex at the second visit, even though this difference between sessions was not statistically significant. Our lab was forced to close during the COVID-19 pandemic, which meant we were unable to bring back as many participants as originally planned. Despite this limitation, we believe the current findings are informative and may be used as a basis for future longitudinal studies of sexual arousal, which could employ larger participant cohorts.

In addition, due to the intrusive nature of the procedure, which is unavoidable for research on genital arousal, our study may have suffered from self-selection bias, and we simply do not know how patterns would look in those who do not participate. Furthermore, our study does not inform how patterns may change over longer periods, over and above 1 year, and future research could investigate this.

Another worthwhile avenue for future research may be to include pupillary responses to sexually explicit stimuli as an alternative measure of sexual arousal (Attard-Johnson et al., 2021). Even though previous work suggests that genital arousal and pupil dilation tend to show comparable findings (Rieger et al., 2015), the latter produces more noise and smaller effects, on average, and therefore require more participants. Still, including both genital arousal and pupil dilation would be ideal in future longitudinal studies of sexual arousal.

Research could also examine relative stability and change in both self-reported sexual orientation and sexual arousal during specific developmental periods (e.g., before, during, and after puberty), if this were ethically justifiable. Further, one may examine the precise reasons why some individuals exhibit change in their self-reported sexual orientation or sexual arousal. For instance, fear of rejection, discrimination, and cultural norms are a few of the factors that might influence change in self-reported sexual orientation, while exposure to new sexual experiences might contribute to changes in sexual arousal.

Conclusion

In this study, we followed up men and women of varying sexual orientations over time, examining their self-reported sexual orientation and objectively assessing their genital arousal to sexually explicit stimuli. We found that, on average, change in self-reported sexual orientation was more likely to be reported than change in genital arousal in both men and women, and that among all sexual orientations, bisexual individuals were the most likely to report any change. Furthermore, we found that change in self-reported sexual orientation was not reflected in genital arousal, providing tentative support for the notion that self-reports may overestimate change in sexual orientation.

Pakistan’s per capita GDP would have been an average of about $718 per year higher had the country not undertaken the effort to produce a nuclear weapon = per capita GDP being 27.8 percent lower over the 25-year weapons-development period

The Economic Cost of a Nuclear Weapon: A Synthetic Control Approach. Anthony Mayberry. SSRN Apr 6 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4065001

Abstract: This study estimates the economic effects of nuclear weapons development efforts in Pakistan using synthetic control group methods. Pakistan started its nuclear weapons program in 1972 and conducted its first test in 1998. This paper focuses on the growth impacts during the 1973 to 1997 period, before Pakistan established itself as a nuclear power. I create a synthetic control group for Pakistan using Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the 1950 to 1972. The impact of the nuclear weapons development program is measured as a treatment dummy for the years 1973-1997 in a Difference-in-Difference model. I find that Pakistan’s per capita GDP would have been an average of about $718 per year higher had the country not undertaken the effort to produce a nuclear weapon. This equates to per capita GDP being 27.8 percent lower on average over the 25-year weapons-development period. Results are robust to several alternative specifications, including country exclusion, sparse synthetic controls, non-outcome characteristics as predictors of GDP, and in-space placebo experiments of differing specifications.

Keywords: Sanctions, Nuclear Weapons, Synthetic Control, Economic Growth

JEL Classification: F5, O4, F51


Too hunky to help? Boys in the socially self-confident profile had significantly higher mean levels of prosocial behavior beliefs toward other boys compared to boys in the socially precarious profile

Too hunky to help: A person-centered approach to masculinity and prosocial behavior beliefs among adolescent boys. Matthew G. Nielson, Diana L. Jenkins, Ashley M. Fraser. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, April 3, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/02654075221084697

Abstract: Boys’ beliefs about prosocial behavior toward other boys may be negatively affected by masculine norm adherence, and there is evidence that early adolescence is a time when boys feel heightened levels of pressure from multiple sources (e.g., friends, family, and self) to adhere to masculine norms like emotional restriction (e.g., appearing stoic and uncaring). However, the relation between boys’ masculinity and their prosocial behavior beliefs is likely further affected by boys’ social competency. Generally, boys’ social competency is positively associated with prosocial behavior, but this is not the case for “tough” boys (boys who adhere to many traditionally masculine norms). We expected that analyzing the relation between early adolescent boys’ pressure to adhere to masculine norms and boys’ unique social profiles (created using adherence to masculine norms and aspects of social competency) would further illuminate boys’ patterns of prosocial behavior beliefs toward other boys. A latent profile analysis estimated profiles of masculinity and social competence among 260 early adolescent boys (59% White, Mage = 11.45 years old, Rangeage = 10–12) in the southwestern U.S. Three profiles emerged which we labeled socially precarious (50%), socially self-confident (41%), and socially avoidant (9%). R3Step and BCH procedures indicated that higher levels of felt pressure from all three sources resulted in a significantly higher likelihood of being in the socially precarious profile compared to the socially self-confident profile and that boys in the socially self-confident profile had significantly higher mean levels of prosocial behavior beliefs toward other boys (M = 3.22) compared to boys in the socially precarious profile (M = 3.01). Overall, this study encourages the socialization of social competency while simultaneously discouraging the perpetuation of certain masculine norms among adolescent boys.

Keywords: Early adolescence, gender identity, latent profile analysis, parents, peers, prosocial


Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Letters To A Spanish Youngster CCLXV

 Letters To A Spanish Youngster CCLXV

[...]

Your Honor the blessing that the gods gave to us His admirers,/Su Señoría la bendición que los dioses nos han enviado a Sus admiradores,

I will keep transcribing ibn Gabirol's poems*, my dear lord and absolute governor./Continúo transcribiendo poemas de ibn Gabirol, mi querido señor y gobernador absoluto.

These are poems to be sent to those who do not care for us despite their saying so, or for those who betray love or friendship:/Estos son poemas para enviar a aquellos a los que no importamos aunque digan que sí lo hacen, o para aquellos que traicionan el amor o la amistad:

[On his love of Yecutiel/Acerca de su amor por Yecutiel]

                                                       [El día que mi alma fue enviada

                                                        a deambular en medio de los hombes,

                                                        no encontró salvo en ti ningún sosiego.]


[Yecutiel's power and generosity/Poder y generosidad de Yecutiel]

                                                       [Con su luz, una estrella      que pisó mis umbrales

                                                        oscureció los astros de mi alba.

                                                        pasó como un relámpago en un sueño

                                                        asiendo el corazón [...]

                                                        Delicia de mi vista      y de todos los ojos,

                                                        panal de nuestra lengua,      de nuestro olfato mirra,

                                                        [...]

                                                        Te alaba el universo,

                                                        que lleno está de júbilo; y tú eres

                                                        además la escarcela de mi plata.]


[Begging pardon/Pide disculpas]

                                                      [¿No es la magnitud de mi dolencia

                                                       como la de mi angustia?

                                                       Por su ardor se me han ido      la fuerza y el vigor.

                                                       Al llamarme tu carta,      tan llena de dulzura,

                                                       mi desesperación se ha sosegado.

                                                       Para contar mis males no te escribo,

                                                       sino como expiación de mi pecado

                                                       de no ir en tu búsqueda.

                                                       Voy a ir a tu encuentro      por encima de todo

                                                       pues sé que cuando vea tu figura

                                                       entonces sanaré,      hurtándose mi daño.]


[On a friend's hardness of heart/Acerca de la dureza de corazón de un amigo]

                                                      [De tal suerte me tiene en su infortunio

                                                       un hado traicionero cautivado

                                                       que mudose mi hermano      de mi como de un traje.

                                                       Si ayer me dominaba      el ansia de mi amigo,

                                                       ¿cómo hoy su lejanía      me tiene dominado?

                                                       Me puso como sello de su brazo

                                                       y como ceñidor      me ató en su vestidura;

                                                       comprome con inmensa querencia y con deseo,

                                                       y luego me ha ventido como esclavo.

                                                       Si hubiese sido yo como un insecto

                                                       volando por encima de mi amado,

                                                       su mano me arrancara;

                                                       si hubiérame entramado como hilo

                                                       un tejedor sobre su vestidura,

                                                       con su tramar habríame apartado.

                                                       Si doliente yaciera, no vendría

                                                       a ver mi enfermedad; si me muriera,

                                                       no habría de enterrarme a su costado.

                                                       Y si yo de mi amigo      los ojos no celara,

                                                       habría de abatirme

                                                       con el dardo del celo como a caza.

                                                       No haré del corazón      fiscal para mi amado

                                                       mientras me siga dando      el nombre de ministro.

                                                       Aprendió el corazón por sus acciones

                                                       a hacer mucho más puro mi deseo;

                                                       mostrome sus cimientos.

                                                       Que pudiera sufrir      los pecados de amigos

                                                       no imaginó mi alma, pero Dios

                                                       con su misericordia me ha ayudado.]


[To someone who send him feathers/A quien le envió unas plumas]

                                                      [Como el oro al fundirse      y como el aspecto

                                                       de las esmeraldas      y como alabastro

                                                       [...] canela      con caña aromática,

                                                       cual dedos de ninfas [...]

                                                       Rutilan cual rayo [...]

                                                       [...] Tu nombre      esculpo con ellas

                                                       en una poesía      de aroma exquisito

                                                       como en el que envueltos      están tus vestidos.]


[Against those who poison friendships]

                                                      [—¿Acaso has traicionado,      amigo, en los amores?

                                                       [...]

                                                       Desde que te apartaras,      mi angustia no se aleja

                                                       y el dolor ha plantado      sobre mí sus garras.

                                                       [...]

                                                       Yo te amé y fue tu alma      para mí como el alma

                                                       del viejo para el niño      que hiciera sus delicias.

                                                       Primero me plantaste      y luego me rechazas:

                                                       ¿acaso un hombre sabio      arranca sus plantíos?

                                                       Si de los generosos      y liberales eres,

                                                       ¿cómo es que menoscabas      y evitas la amistad?]


Missing you so much, Your Honor, that I am always somber and smiles seldom appear on my face, Yours faithfully/Echándoos de menos tanto, Su Señoría, que estoy siempre sombrío y la sonrisa raramente aparece en mi rostro, Suyo fielmente

                 a. r. ante Su Señoría

--

Notes

*  Adapted from Selected Poems of Solomon ibn Gabirol, translated by Peter Cole (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 2001), & the Spanish version from Selomó ibn Gabirol—Poesía secular, by Elena Romero (Madrid: Alfaguara, 1978)

Finding that acute alcohol consumption had no reliable effect on risk-taking while gambling was consistent with existing animal research: No support was found for the relation between alcohol dose and risk-taking

Does Acute Alcohol Consumption Increase Risk-Taking while Gambling? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Tori L. Horn,James P. Whelan,Gregory T. Weil. Addiction, April 11 2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.15896

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the effect of acute alcohol consumption on risk-taking while gambling, examine blood alcohol concentration as a moderator, and explore possible moderators of this effect.

Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis was completed. A Boolean search strategy was used to identify studies that included (a) alcohol consumption as an independent variable; (b) a gambling or risk-taking task; (c) a control or placebo comparison; (d) human participants; and (e) English publications. Descriptive information, sample characteristics, and experimental data were extracted from each study.

Setting: Searched databases included: PsycINFO, Web of Science, Medline, Cochrane Library, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses.

Participants: Experiments that compared the effects of alcohol and non-alcoholic or placebo beverages on risk-taking while gambling.

Measurement: Comprehensive Meta-Analysis version 3.3.070 was used. Standardized mean differences of risk-taking while gambling between the experimental and control conditions were calculated when studies did not report effect sizes. Random effects models were used for overall effect and meta-regressions while mixed effects models were used for subgroup analyses.

Findings: Twenty articles containing 47 alcohol versus control comparisons met inclusion criteria. The overall Hedges’ g for the difference between groups consuming alcohol and groups consuming a placebo or non-alcoholic drink control was 0.03, 95% CI [-.07, 0.12], p =.60, indicating no significant difference. Larger effect sizes were found for studies using non-alcoholic control drinks (Hedge’s g = .30, 95% CI [.01, 0.58]) compared to placebo beverages (Hedge’s g = -0.03, 95% CI [-0.13, 0.06]), Q(1)=4.67, p = .03.

Conclusions: Finding that acute alcohol consumption had no reliable effect on risk-taking while gambling was consistent with existing animal research. No support was found for the relation between alcohol dose and risk-taking. The significantly larger effect size for experiments using non-alcoholic versus placebo beverages suggests the potential role of expectancy effects.


Popular models on the threat–politics association suggest that threats cause right-wing political preferences; but failed replications got in the way

The complicated but solvable threat–politics relationship. Mark J. Brandt, Bert N. Bakker. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 26, Issue 5, May 2022, Pages 368-370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2022.02.005

Abstract: Popular models on the threat–politics association suggest that threats cause right-wing political preferences. Failed replications, crossnational variation, and examples of threats causing left-wing preferences suggest this relationship is more complicated. We introduce a model of the reciprocal threat–politics relationship that reconciles prior conflicting findings and raises new questions.

Keywords: threatpolitical preferencesideologypsychophysiologycrossnationalattitudes


Economic effects of voluntary religious castration on the informal provision of cooperation: The case of the Russian Skoptsy sect

Economic effects of voluntary religious castration on the informal provision of cooperation: The case of the Russian Skoptsy sect. Vladimir Maltsev. European Economic Review, Apr 11 2022, 104109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104109

Abstract: The article examines the effects of voluntary religious castration (VRC) on the informal provision of cooperation through boycott. To do so, it analyzes the Russian Skoptsy sect, active from 1772 to 1930. The Skoptsy were outlawed by the Russian state and had to secure cooperation through informal means. To do so, the sect relied on the threat of boycott against noncooperative individuals. I argue that VRC ensured the credibility of this threat. First, VRC created a high entry cost, which screened for single-minded and patient individuals who placed high value upon repeated in-group interaction. Second, VRC created a high exit cost from the sect because of the hostile attitude of the Russian populace to castrated individuals. Moreover, the public could cheaply identify the ex-sect members and punish them because of permanent physiological changes caused by VRC. The credible threat of ostracism secured widespread cooperation among the Skoptsy and enabled the sect to support its members through a system of mutual aid and inheritance. Cooperation in the sect also allowed for a rapid creation of wealth through market collusion, making the Skoptsy one of the richest sects in Russia and abroad.

Keywords: boycottinformal governancecastrationSkoptsyRussia


Economic uncertainty appears to shift individuals into different life history strategies (pace of life) as a function of childhood social-economic status, suggesting how ecological factors & early life environment influence fertility-related decisions

Effects of economic uncertainty and socioeconomic status on reproductive timing: A life history approach. Kenneth Tan et al. Current Research in Ecological and Social Psychology, Volume 3, 2022, 100040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cresp.2022.100040

Highlights

• Adaptive responses to economic uncertainty depend on the harshness of early-life environment, as reflected by childhood socioeconomic status

• Reproductive timing should also be influenced by economic uncertainty and childhood socioeconomic status

• Under economic uncertainty, people who grew up in lower-SES environments reported wanting children sooner

• Under economic uncertainty, people who grew up in higher-SES environments reported wanting children later

• Reproductive timing was determined by considering the desire between reproduction and furthering one's education or career

Abstract: Why do some people have children earlier compared to others who delay reproduction? Drawing from an evolutionary, life history theory perspective, we posited that reproductive timing could be influenced by economic uncertainty and childhood socioeconomic status (SES). For individuals lower in childhood SES, economic uncertainty influenced the desire to reproduce earlier compared to individuals higher in childhood SES. Furthermore, the decision regarding reproductive timing was influenced by tradeoffs between earlier reproduction or furthering one's education or career. Overall, economic uncertainty appears to shift individuals into different life history strategies as a function of childhood SES, suggesting how ecological factors and early life environment can influence fertility-related decisions at the individual level and may contribute to the highly variable fertility patterns observed across countries.


General discussion

We examined whether variability in reproductive timing and attitudes can be influenced by economic uncertainty. Results showed that the association between people's childhood environment and their desired reproductive timing depended on economic uncertainty cues in their current environments: When facing current economic uncertainty, individuals who grew up in resource-scarce (versus resource-abundant) environments reported more positive attitudes toward earlier reproductive timing and desired to have their first child sooner (i.e., faster life history strategy). These findings were robust to two different measures of childhood SES: objective and subjective childhood SES.

Furthermore, we provided some insight as to why individuals differed in their reports of reproductive timing and replicated the key interaction between childhood environment and current economic uncertainty on life history tradeoffs. Individuals who grew up in resource-scarce (versus resource-abundant) environments reported preferring earlier reproduction to investing in education or work experience (i.e., faster life history strategy) when they faced current economic uncertainty. It should be noted that individuals with lower childhood SES still reported scores above the midpoint, indicating that they favored investing in education or work experience, albeit less strongly. Importantly, these tradeoffs regarding reproductive vs. somatic effort desire mediated the effect of economic uncertainty and childhood SES on reproductive attitudes.

A meta-analytic summary

The effect of economic uncertainty on reproductive timing was consistent across differing samples and varied measures of childhood SES. Nonetheless, due to sample size limitations and differing effect sizes, we sought to test the robustness of our effects. We conducted an integrative data analysis (IDA; Curran and Hussong, 2009), a technique that allows for primary or secondary analyses of data from multiple samples, in order to increase power and provide an overall test of hypotheses across datasets. To conduct the IDA, we standardized childhood SES within their respective sample, removing sample-level mean and variance differences, and controlled for study sample. We focused on the outcome variable of desired age of first child as that was the same construct across both studies.

There was no significant main effect of economic uncertainty, b = 0.16, t(3851) = 1.28, p = .20; 95% CI [-0.09, 0.41], no significant main effect of childhood SES, b = 0.02, t(385) = .17, p = .87; 95% CI [-0.24, 0.28], but a significant main effect of study, b = -0.61, t(385) = -2.22, p = .03; 95% CI [-1.15, -0.07]. Most important, consistent with hypotheses, there was a significant childhood SES × economic uncertainty interaction, b = 0.30, t(385) = 2.30, p = .02, R2 = 0.30; 95% CI [0.04, 0.56].

Among participants in the economic uncertainty condition, those with higher (versus lower) childhood SESs desired children marginally significantly further in the future, b = 0.32, t(385) = 1.72, p = .08; 95% CI [-0.04, 0.69]; among participants in the control/economic certainty condition, we did not detect an association between childhood SES and desired reproductive timing, b = -0.8, t(385) = -1.53, p = .13; 95% CI [-0.64, 0.08]. Test of simple slopes at high (+1 SD) and low (-1 SD) levels of childhood SES revealed that individual simple slopes indicating an effect of economic uncertainty was not significant for low-childhood SES individuals, b = -0.12, t(385) = -.69, p = .49; 95% CI [-0.48, 0.23] but was significant for high-childhood SES individuals, b = 0.46, t(385) = 2.57, p = .01; 95% CI [0.11, 0.81]. In summary, the aggregated analysis show evidence in support of our predictions.

By examining economic uncertainty, we build on past work examining the effects of mortality cues and reproductive timing from a life history perspective (Griskevicius et al., 2011). Like mortality cues, economic uncertainty represents unpredictability and harshness in the environment—in this case, stemming from the lack of resources (Ellis et al., 2009). Both economic uncertainty and mortality threat manipulations are extrinsic stressors that signal current environmental threat, and although they have been shown to have similar effects across some outcomes such as impulsivity and risk-taking, this has yet to be examined for outcomes related to reproductive timing (Griskevicius et al., 2013Griskevicius et al., 2011). Moreover, developed East Asian countries are facing especially low fertility rates, and modernization might make mortality cues less salient compared to economic uncertainty cues. Indeed, some research has shown that economic endeavors are especially prioritized over reproductive effort in developed East Asian countries (Yong et al., 2019). Hence, the current findings provide novel insights beyond past work, regarding the effects of economic uncertainty on whether and why people reared in wealthier (versus poorer) environments have children earlier versus later.

We found inconsistent effects in fertility expectations in our comparison conditions across both studies. Specifically, in Study 1, individuals who were raised in different childhood environments showed no differences in reproductive timing when facing economic certainty, replicating previous research suggesting that benign and safe environments might not elicit SES effects on life history strategies (Griskevicus et al., 20112013). However, in Study 2, individuals raised in different childhood environments showed opposing effects in the control condition compared to the economic uncertainty condition. One possible explanation might lie in how risk preferences might change as a function of childhood environment and economic uncertainty (Nettle, 2009). Prior research shows that individuals raised in wealthier childhood environments express greater appetite for risks when there is no immediate threat (Griskevicius et al., 2011). It might be that, for our participants in the control condition, those raised in wealthier environments felt better able to risk earlier reproduction and cope with subsequent child rearing, whereas those raised in poorer environments preferred slightly less risk and focused on investing in somatic effort, especially so in a developed and urban environment such as Singapore. Future research could examine this idea more thoroughly. Regardless, what is key is that economic uncertainty elicited divergent life history strategies in terms of reproductive timing.

Implications

The current research has implications for various literatures. For instance, the findings help substantiate an evolutionary life-history mismatch perspective on reproductive decisions (Li et al., 2018). According to this perspective, humans have evolved mechanisms that take in environmental cues related to harshness and uncertainty and process them according to decision rules that produce output in the form of attitudes and behaviors regarding reproductive decisions. Although these decision rules, on average, led to adaptive decisions in the ancestral past, they are now processing evolutionarily novel inputs that may not have the same implications for reproductive fitness.

Importantly, because resource uncertainty may have had life-or-death consequences for offspring throughout human evolutionary history, mechanisms may have evolved to adaptively adjust reproductive strategies in response to cues of resource scarcity and uncertainty. As the current work suggests, even though the modern world is relatively safe and abundant, such mechanisms may nonetheless still be processing cues such as economic uncertainty. Combined with other evolutionarily novel features found in modern societies that may be similarly processed by reproductive mechanisms, such as enormously large population densities (Sng et al., 2018) and the insatiability of social status in an increasingly global world (Li et al. 2015Yong et al., 2019), such cues may lead to a maladaptive slowing down of fertility to the point where local populations drastically shrink. Future research may benefit from investigating the extent to which these and other evolutionarily novel modern conditions (e.g., a lack of exposure to elements of nature that might signify safety and resource abundance in ancestral times; Li et al., 2018) may be contributing to the ultra-low fertility found in all East Asian countries, parts of Southeast Asia and Europe, and an increasing number of other modern societies.

Limitations and future directions

Although we consistently found moderating effects of economic uncertainty cues on the relationship between childhood SES and desired reproduction timing, there were minor limitations regarding our manipulations in Study 1 (i.e., status uncertainty and negative affect) that we tried to address in Study 2. It could also be noted that in spite of our Study 2 manipulation being adapted from prior research (e.g., Griskevicius et al., 2010), the focal manipulation was about a contextual manipulation of uncertainty (unemployment) whereas the control condition was about an individual manipulation of uncertainty (losing one's wallet). Even though we are confident in the validity of our manipulations and results, future research could utilize more robust manipulations of uncertainty and ensuing comparisons to gain a better understanding of the effects of uncertainty on life history strategies.

Furthermore, the range of childhood SES from which we sampled was limited. University students typically are young and often come from middle- or upper-level SES backgrounds. Sampling from a wider range of childhood SES may uncover more powerful effects of childhood environment on reproductive timing. Nevertheless, the fact that we repeatedly found the moderating effect of economic uncertainty on the effects of perceived childhood SES suggests this effect may be quite robust in this population. Similarly, we sampled from a limited range of ages. Even though life history decisions in terms of reproductive timing are likely highly relevant to college-aged people, recruiting a sample that varies more in participant age might reveal potential boundary conditions of our effects. It should also be noted that our participant sample was largely female, but we did not find any gender main effects nor interactions with any of our findings. Importantly, our results regarding gender are consistent with prior life history research that examined the effects of mortality cues on reproductive timing and risk-taking, where mortality cues influenced men and women similarly and there were also no potential sex differences found on the main effect of reproductive timing as well (see Griskevicius et al., 2011Griskevicius et al., 2011;). Nonetheless, we might not have had enough power to detect gender interactions because of our sample; future research should ensure a more equal representation between the sexes, even though we are relatively confident regarding the results that there are no potential sex differences.

In addition, our samples are from Singapore—a nation that is at or near the lowest nationwide fertility rate in the world and constitutes a cultural departure from typical psychology samples that examine Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) participants (Henrich et al., 2010) . On the other hand, college students in Singapore do fall into the categories of E, I, and R. Future research could collect more culturally diverse samples to extend the generalizability of our results. Finally, given the limitations of our student samples, it remains unclear the extent to which our outcome measures that focus on intentions (i.e., desired age of first child, reproductive timing attitude, reproductive vs. somatic effort desire) generalize to actual reproduction timing and behavior. After all, most young undergraduates have little to no experience with reproductive decisions, and intentions to reproduce might not translate to actual reproduction behavior in the general population. However, meta-analytic data suggest that intentions strongly predict actual behavior, in spite of an intention-behavior gap (Sheeran and Webb, 2016). Furthermore, given that reproduction is costly both biologically and in terms of opportunity for increasing embodied capital, it would be adaptive for one to first have reproductive intentions to aid planning and preparing for the arrival of future offspring. As such, we believe that reproductive timing intentions are frequently a precursor to actual reproductive behavior. Nonetheless, future research should prospectively examine the association between childhood SES, economic uncertainty, and actual reproduction behaviors.

We did not fully examine the proximate psychological processes underlying these divergent effects. Future research is needed to examine other possible mediators, such as sense of control. Recent research points to sense of control as a psychological driver of behaviors associated with different life history strategies (Mittal and Griskevicius, 2014), and so may help explain why environmental uncertainty alters the association between childhood environment and reproductive timing, as well as other related concepts such as risk-taking and valuation of quantity versus quality (Griskevicius et al., 2013White et al., 2013). Given that conditions of uncertainty are associated with less control, fast strategists may respond by prioritizing immediate reproductive efforts, which includes taking more risks for larger immediate payoffs and having children sooner (Mittal and Griskevicius, 2014). Conversely, slow strategists may respond by prioritizing somatic effort in an effort to regain the sense of control they are used to. Sense of control might also be related to optimism or confidence about abilities to deal with economic uncertainty, and results in the adoption of faster or slower life history strategies (Mittal and Griskevicius, 2014). Future research is needed to ascertain if sense of control or optimism are indeed mediating variables in the relationship between economic uncertainty and reproductive timing. One might also examine mortality thoughts that could arise from economic uncertainty, as resource scarcity could represent cues of unpredictability and harshness in ancestral environments (Griskevicius et al., 2013).

Finally, the link between economic uncertainty and fertility is particularly relevant in current times, given the coronavirus-19 pandemic and its influence on economic uncertainty and instability (see Fernandes, 2020). Future research can fruitfully investigate how variables such as disease prevalence—which has been shown to be linked adaptively to cross-cultural differences in personality traits (Schaller and Murray, 2008)—and economic uncertainty interact and influence reproductive timing mechanisms.