The link between people’s social relationships and their level of self-esteem is truly reciprocal in all developmental stages across the life span, reflecting a positive feedback loop between the constructs

Harris, M. A., & Orth, U. (2019, September 26). The Link Between Self-Esteem and Social Relationships: A Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Studies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Sep 26 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000265

Theorists have long assumed that people’s self-esteem and social relationships influence each other. However, the empirical evidence has been inconsistent, creating substantial uncertainty about whetherrelationships are in fact an influential factor in self-esteem development and vice versa. This meta-analysis synthesizes the available longitudinal data on the prospective effect of social relationships on self-esteem (48 samples including 46,231 participants) and the prospective effect of self-esteem on social relationships (35 samples including 21,995 participants). All effects controlled for prior levels of the outcomes. Results showed that relationships and self-esteem reciprocally predict each other over time with similar effect sizes (beta=.08 in both directions). Moderator analyses suggested that the effects heldcacross sample characteristics such as mean age, gender, ethnicity, and time lag between assessments, except for the self-esteem effect on relationships, which was moderated by type of relationship partner (stronger for general relationships than for specific partners) and relationship reporter (stronger for self-reported than for informant-reported relationship characteristics). The findings support assumptions of classic and contemporary theories on the influence of social relationships on self-esteem and on the consequences of self-esteem for the relationship domain. In sum, the findings suggest that the link between people’s social relationships and their level of self-esteem is truly reciprocal in all developmental stages across the life span, reflecting a positive feedback loop between the constructs.

Keywords: longitudinal studies, meta-analysis, prospective effects, self-esteem, social relationships

Non-Religious Identities and Life Satisfaction: Questioning the Universality of a Linear Link between Religiosity and Well-Being

Non-Religious Identities and Life Satisfaction: Questioning the Universality of a Linear Link between Religiosity and Well-Being. Katharina Pöhls et al. Journal of Happiness Studies, September 26 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-019-00175-x

Abstract: Previous research has frequently found a positive relation between religiosity compared to non-religiosity and psychological well-being. Recent studies have demonstrated differences between types of non-religious individuals and the relevance of a fit between individual (non-)religiosity and characteristics of the country a person is living in. This study combined the previous (partially) competing lines of research for the first time and examined the connection between self-identifying as specifically atheist, non-religious without further distinction, weakly religious, or highly religious and life satisfaction. World Values Survey data of 24 countries worldwide that vary in their social norms of religiosity and societal levels of development were used for a quantitative intercultural comparison (N = 33,879). In contrast to most previous research, a multilevel regression analysis showed no differences between highly religious, indistinct non-religious, and atheist individuals’ level of life satisfaction when the fit between individual (non-)religiosity and country characteristics was included. Weakly religious individuals though were significantly less satisfied with life than highly religious individuals. Thus, our results indicate that only in religious societies, identifying as non-religious/atheist is related to lower life satisfaction. When controlling for the context, a curvilinear relation between (non-)religiosity and life satisfaction emerged. Additionally, atheists differed in their sensitivity towards the social norm of religiosity from indistinct non-religious individuals—their well-being varied dependent on living in a country with many other secular individuals or not. These results demonstrate differences between subgroups of (non-)religious individuals and they call into question a general benefit of religiosity for subjective well-being independent of societal context.

Keywords: Non-religiosity Atheism Religiosity Belief certainty Person-culture fit Life satisfaction

Canada: Similar to the findings in the alcohol literature, the upper 10% of cannabis users accounted for approximately two-thirds of all cannabis consumed in the country

Who consumes most of the cannabis in Canada? Profiles of cannabis consumption by quantity. Russell C. Callaghan et al. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, September 25 2019, 107587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.107587

Highlights
• Study pooled Waves 1-3 of the 2018 Canadian National Cannabis Survey (n = 18,900).
• Surveys assessed cannabis use by quantity across seven major cannabis-product types.
• A standard joint measure was created, based on physical production equivalencies.
• The upper 10% of Canadian cannabis users accounted for 66% of all cannabis consumed.

Abstract
Aim: To establish whether the population-level pattern of cannabis use by quantity is similar to the distributions previously reported for alcohol, in which a small subset of drinkers accounts for a majority of total population alcohol consumption.

Method: The current study pooled Waves 1-3 of the 2018 National Cannabis Survey (n = 18,900; 2584 past-three-month cannabis users), a set of stratified, population-based surveys designed to assess cannabis consumption and related behaviors in Canada. Each survey systematically measured self-reported cannabis consumption by quantity across seven of the major cannabis-product types. In order to enable the conversion of self-reported consumption of non-flower cannabis products into a standard joint equivalent (SJE: equal to 0.5 g of dried cannabis), we created conversion metrics for physical production equivalencies across cannabis products.

Results: Similar to the findings in the alcohol literature, study results show that cannabis consumption is highly concentrated in a small subset of users: the upper 10% of cannabis users accounted for approximately two-thirds of all cannabis consumed in the country. Males reported consuming more cannabis by volume than females (approximately 60% versus 40%), with young males (15-34 years old) being disproportionately represented in the heaviest-using subgroups.

Conclusions: Most of the cannabis used in Canada is consumed by a relatively small population of very heavy cannabis users. Future research should attempt to identify the characteristics of the heaviest-using groups, as well as how population-level cannabis consumption patterns relate to the calculus of cannabis-related harms in society.

Keywords: CannabisMarijuanaSurveyQuantityStandard Joint

Positive associations among curiosity lability & depression, & negative ones among curiosity lability & life satisfaction and flourishing; curiosity is higher on days of greater happiness & physical activity

Within‐person variability in curiosity during daily life and associations with well‐being. David M. Lydon‐Staley, Perry Zurn, Danielle S. Bassett. The Journal of Personality, September 13 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12515

Abstract
Objective: Curiosity promotes engagement in novel situations and the accruement of resources that promote well‐being. An open question is the extent to which curiosity lability, the degree to which curiosity fluctuates over short timescales, impacts well‐being.

Method: We use data from a 21‐day daily diary as well as trait measures in 167 participants (mean age = 25.37 years, SD = 7.34) to test (a) the importance of curiosity lability for depression, flourishing, and life satisfaction, (b) day‐to‐day associations among curiosity and happiness, depressed mood, anxiety, and physical activity, and (c) the role of day's mood as a mediator between physical activity and curiosity.

Results: We observe positive associations among curiosity lability and depression, as well as negative associations among curiosity lability and both life satisfaction and flourishing. Curiosity is higher on days of greater happiness and physical activity, and lower on days of greater depressed mood. We find evidence consistent with day's depressed mood and happiness being mediators between physical activity and curiosity.

Conclusions: Greater consistency in curiosity is associated with well‐being. We identify several potential sources of augmentation and blunting of curiosity in daily life and provide support for purported mechanisms linking physical activity to curiosity via mood.


4 DISCUSSION
Curiosity promotes engagement with novel and challenging stimuli and situations, leading to the accruement of resources, and promoting well‐being (Fredrickson & Cohn, 2008). It is through consistently acting on one's curiosity that high trait curiosity is thought to promote well‐being (Kashdan et al., 2018), necessitating a consideration of the extent to which curiosity lability, fluctuations in curiosity over the time scale of days, and a measure of inconsistency in one's curiosity, may undermine well‐being. We quantified between‐person differences in curiosity lability over the course of 21 days and tested the associations between curiosity lability and depression, life satisfaction, and flourishing. Consistent with the hypothesized importance of consistent curiosity in promoting well‐being, individuals with relatively greater fluctuations in curiosity around their average level of curiosity during the daily diary protocol had decreased life satisfaction and increased depression. Notably, the association between curiosity lability and both life satisfaction and depression was significant above and beyond a trait measure of curiosity, indicating the added value of considering dynamics in curiosity for understanding well‐being. A main effect of curiosity lability on flourishing was not observed. Instead, inconsistency in curiosity was associated with lower flourishing only for participants with below average levels of trait curiosity.

After revealing the importance of within‐person fluctuations in curiosity for well‐being, we examined the extent to which happiness, depressed mood, anxiety, and physical activity acted as potential sources of augmentation and blunting of curiosity in daily life. In line with previous laboratory findings (Rodrigue et al., 1987) and perspectives that positive emotions motivate exploration (Diener & Diener, 1996) while negative emotions restrict exploration (Fredrickson, 2004), we observed that days of higher than usual depressed mood were associated with lower than usual curiosity, and that days of higher than usual happiness were associated with higher than usual curiosity. These results suggest that negative associations among depressed mood and curiosity generalize to ecologically valid, naturalistic fluctuations in mood and curiosity occurring during the course of daily life.

Within‐person variability in anxiety was not associated with changes in curiosity. Due in great part to the Latin sense of cura as meticulous, painstaking, even obsessive care (Leigh, 2013), curiosity and anxiety have been densely intertwined historically, promulgating the notion that curiosity “has always an appearance of giddiness, restlessness, and anxiety” (Burke, 1958, p. 31). Early psychological theories proposed that curiosity may result from the identification of contradictions and ambiguities that leads to an unpleasant feeling some have interpreted as anxiety (Berlyne, 1960; Dollard & Miller, 1950; Spielberger & Starr, 1994). Other perspectives view anxiety as a state that interferes with the exploratory behavior characteristic of curiosity (Kashdan et al., 2004). The contrasting associations among anxiety and curiosity may be differentially present prior to curiosity‐driven exploration and during the process of curiosity‐driven engagement with novel stimuli and situations. Testing these distinct pathways will require repeated measures at more fine‐grained timescales than were available in the daily diary reports in the present study.

We replicate previously observed between‐person associations among curiosity and physical activity (Brand et al., 2010), with higher levels of average physical activity across the 21‐day daily diary protocol associated with higher levels of average curiosity. In addition to replicating this between‐person finding, our collection of intensive repeated measures allowed us to disentangle within‐person and between‐person associations among physical activity and curiosity, and to demonstrate that the association among physical activity and curiosity was also evident at the within‐person level, with days of greater than usual physical activity being associated with greater than usual curiosity. Results of the within‐person mediation analyses are consistent with frameworks suggesting that physical activity's association with curiosity is partially mediated via physical activity's effects on positive and depressed mood (Berger & Owen, 1992; Penedo & Dahn, 2005; Rehor et al., 2001). Further study of physical activity using modes, scales, and intensities titrated to disabled bodies, moreover, could deepen and extend the present study to account for a population significantly understudied in the literature on curiosity.

6 CONCLUSIONS
In summary, the present study extends previous examinations of the association among curiosity and well‐being by demonstrating that the extent to which one consistently reports feeling curious during the course of daily life is associated with well‐being. The findings emphasize the importance of considering dynamics in curiosity and, by observing within‐person associations among curiosity, depressed mood, happiness, and physical activity, begin the task of identifying potential sources of augmentation and blunting of curiosity in daily life that may be targeted to realize consistent curiosity.

Childhood experience of parents’ lying is related to lying to parents in adulthood, and to adulthood maladjustments; parenting by lying may negatively impact children’s later psychosocial functioning

Parenting by lying in childhood is associated with negative developmental outcomes in adulthood
Author links open overlay panel Peipei Setoh et al. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, September 26 2019, 104680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2019.104680

Highlights
•    Childhood experience of parents’ lying is related to lying to parents in adulthood.
•    Childhood experience of parents’ lying is related to adulthood maladjustments.
•    Parenting by lying may negatively impact children’s later psychosocial functioning.

Abstract: Parenting by lying refers to the parenting practice of deception to try to control children’s behavioral and affective states. Although the practice is widely observed across cultures, few studies have examined its associations with psychological outcomes in adulthood. The current research fills this gap by sampling 379 young Singaporean adults who reported on their childhood exposure to parenting by lying, their current deceptive behaviors toward parents, and their psychosocial adjustment. Results revealed that the adults who remembered being exposed to higher levels of parenting by lying in childhood showed higher levels of deception toward their parents and higher levels of psychosocial maladjustment. Our findings suggest that parenting by lying may have negative implications for children’s psychosocial functioning later in life.

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Rolf Degen summary:

"Childhood experience of parents’ lying is related to lying to parents in adulthood." The paper doesn't even consider the possibility that this could be linked to a common genetic disposition.
 

192 Countries, 2001-2018: The strongest predictors of variation in entrepreneurial activity were normative, with social norms being the most strongly associated with entrepreneurialism & rates of organizational founding

Assenova, Valentina, Why Are Some Societies More Entrepreneurial than Others? Evidence from 192 Countries over 2001-2018 (January 25, 2019). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449762

Abstract: Why do societies vary in their rates of entrepreneurship and organizational founding? Drawing on the largest available longitudinal sample comprising 192 countries over 2001-2018, I examine the evidence in relation to several explanations, including variation in the density of established organizations, national investment in research and development (R&D), technology transfer to new companies, the quality of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education, venture capital (VC) availability, and governmental support and policies for entrepreneurship. Contrary to prevailing theories, there is limited empirical support for these explanations. Rather, the evidence shows that the strongest predictors of cross-national variation in entrepreneurial activity were normative, with social norms being the most strongly associated with entrepreneurialism and rates of organizational founding. This study further examines the relationship between norms and societal culture and finds that more gender-egalitarian societies and societies that value and reward performance and endorse status privileges had on average higher rates of organizational founding, net of differences in national income and economic growth. The paper discusses the implications of these findings in relation to research on the social determinants of entrepreneurship and organizational founding.

Keywords: entrepreneurship; organization theory; cross-national differences
JEL Classification: M13, L26, L53

Women and men differ in the perception of their technological capabilities, with women having a worse perception of their own skills, although they do not differ in goal achievement

Similarities and Differences between Genders in the Usage of Computer with Different Levels of Technological Complexity. Sabrina Sobieraj, Nicole C. Krämer. Computers in Human Behavior, September 25 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2019.09.021

Highlights
•    Women and men differ in the perception of their technological capabilities
•    Women and men do not differ in goal achievement
•    Women and men slightly differ in their affect depending on technologies’ complexity

Abstract: Research on technology usage and acceptance has demonstrated that women and men use technology differently, and also differ in their self-perception regarding technology (e.g., women see themselves as less capable). Gender role beliefs, according to which women are expected to be less interested in and less capable of using technologies than men, have been discussed as one major reason for these differences. Such differing attributions of women and men can induce negative experiences in terms of negative feelings and can reinforce the feelings of uncertainty experienced by women. We therefore assume that the usage of technology, especially with increasing complexity, may induce more negative experiences in women than in men. We conducted a 2 (male, female) x 3 (technological complexity) between-subjects lab experiment (N = 148) to examine the interaction between technological complexity and users’ gender. The analyses revealed that women and men differ in the perception of their technological capabilities, but not in goal achievement. Additionally, we found slight gender differences concerning positive affect, but not concerning negative affect, depending on technologies’ complexity.

Piloerection (goosebumps) Is Not a Reliable Physiological Correlate of Awe

McPhetres, Jonathon, and Andrew Shtulman. 2019. “Piloerection (goosebumps) Is Not a Reliable Physiological Correlate of Awe.” OSF Preprints. September 25. doi:10.31219/osf.io/72j4w

Abstract: In scientific and popular literature, piloerection (e.g. goosebumps) is often described as being related to the experience of awe, though this correlation has not been tested empirically. Using two pre-registered and independently collected samples (N = 233), we examined the objective physiological occurrence of piloerection in response to awe-inducing stimuli. Stimuli were selected to satisfy three descriptors of awe, including perceptual vastness, virtual reality, and expectancy-violating events. The stimuli reliably elicited self-reported awe to a great extent, in line with hypotheses. However, awe-inducing stimuli were not associated with the objective occurrence of piloerection. While participants self-reported high levels of goosebumps and “the chills,” there was no physical evidence of this. These results suggest that piloerection is not reliably connected to the experience of awe—at least using stimuli known to elicit awe in an experimental setting.

A large number of Americans believe their physical health has been harmed by their exposure to politics & even more report that politics has resulted in emotional costs and lost friendships

Friends, relatives, sanity, and health: The costs of politics. Kevin B. Smith, Matthew V. Hibbing, John R. Hibbing. PLoS ONE 14(9), e0221870, September 25, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0221870

Abstract: Political scientists have long known that political involvement exacts costs but they have typically defined these costs in relatively narrow, largely economic terms. Though anecdotal evidence suggests that the costs of politics may in fact extend beyond economics to frayed personal relationships, compromised emotional stability, and even physical problems, no systematic evidence on these broader costs exists. We construct and validate batteries of survey items that delineate the physical, social, and emotional costs of political engagement and administer these items to a demographically representative sample of U.S. adults. The results suggest that a large number of Americans believe their physical health has been harmed by their exposure to politics and even more report that politics has resulted in emotional costs and lost friendships.

Deception Detection: Emotion recognition training was not found to impact on accuracy

Zloteanu, Mircea. 2019. “Emotion Recognition and Deception Detection.” PsyArXiv. September 25. doi:10.31234/osf.io/crzne

Abstract: People hold strong beliefs regarding the role of emotional cues in detecting deception. While research on the diagnostic value of such cues has been mixed, their influence on human veracity judgments should not be ignored. Here, we address the relationship between emotional information and veracity judgments. In Study 1, the role of emotion recognition in the process of detecting naturalistic lies was investigated. Decoders’ accuracy was compared based on differences in trait empathy and their ability to recognize microexpressions and subtle expressions. Accuracy was found to be unrelated to facial cue recognition but negatively related to empathy. In Study 2, we manipulated decoders’ emotion recognition ability and the type of lies they saw: experiential or affective. Decoders either received emotion recognition training, bogus training, or no training. In all scenarios, training was not found to impact on accuracy. Experiential lies were easier to detect than affective lies, but, affective emotional lies were easier to detect than affective unemotional lies. The findings suggest that emotion recognition has a complex relationship with veracity judgments.

Male juvenile rats and laughter: There was evidence that tickling showed rebound and emotional contagion effects

Relationships between play and responses to tickling in male juvenile rats. Tayla Hammond et al. Applied Animal Behaviour Science, September 25 2019, 104879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applanim.2019.104879

Highlights
•    Solitary but not social play increased prior to and potentially in anticipation of tickling sessions
•    There were substantial differences between cohorts in their tickling responses and play behaviour.
•    Taking account of cohort there was evidence that tickling showed rebound and emotional contagion effects
•    Cohort effects may be explained by differences in physical condition prior to tickling.

Abstract: Play is a putatively positive experience and of key interest to the study of affective state in animals. Rats produce 50 kHz ultrasonic vocalisation (USVs) during positive experiences, including social play and tickling. The tickling paradigm is intended to mimic social play resulting in positively valanced ultrasonic vocalisation (USV) production. We tested two hypotheses on the relationship between tickling and play: that tickling would increase play behaviour or that play behaviour would increase in anticipation of tickling, and that tickling would share some specific properties of play (rebound and emotional contagion of unexposed cage mates). Male Wistar rats (N = 64, with 32 rats/cohort) of 28 days of age were housed in pairs with one rat assigned to be tickled and one as the non-tickled control. Production of 50 kHz USVs and hand-following behaviour was measured. Prior to handling, solitary and social play was recorded for 5 minutes in the home cage. A two-day break in tickling was used to assess a potential rebound increase in responses to tickling. Only one rat within each cage was handled to assess emotional contagion through changes in the behaviour of the cage-mate. Solitary but not social play increased prior to tickling relative to controls (p = 0.01). There were marked differences between cohorts; tickled rats in C2 produced less 50 kHz USVs than those in C1 (p  = 0.04) and overall, C2 rats played less than rats in C1 (social p =  0.04 and solitary p <  0.001) and had a lighter start weight on arrival (p =  0.009) compared with cohort 1 (C1). In C1, there was evidence of rebound in USV production (p <  0.001) and a contagious effect of tickling reflected by increased hand-following in cage mates (p = 0.02). We found a positive relationship between start weight and USV responses to tickling (Rs = 0.43, p < 0.001), suggesting that the divergence in USV production may be due to developmental differences between cohorts. The results suggest that the relationship between tickling and play is complex in that tickling only affected solitary and not social play, and that tickling responses showed rebound and contagion effects on cage-mates which were specific to cohort responses to tickling.

People in creative occupations and the entertainment industry – artists (both genders), musicians (males) and actors (males) – were at increased risk of suicide

Occupation-specific suicide risk in England: 2011–2015. Ben Windsor-Shellard and David Gunnell. The British Journal of Psychiatry, Volume 215, Issue 4, October 2019 , pp. 594-599. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.2019.69

Abstract
Background: Previous research has documented marked occupational differences in suicide risk, but these estimates are 10 years old and based on potentially biased risk assessments.

Aims: To investigate occupation-specific suicide mortality in England, 2011–2015.

Method: Estimation of indirectly standardised mortality rates for occupations/occupational groups based on national data.

Results: Among males the highest risks were seen in low-skilled occupations, particularly construction workers (standardised mortality ratio [SMR] 369, 95% CI 333–409); low-skilled workers comprised 17% (1784/10 688) of all male suicides (SMR 144, 95% CI 137–151). High risks were also seen among skilled trade occupations (SMR 135 95% CI 130–139; 29% of male suicides). There was no evidence of increased risk among some occupations previously causing concern: male healthcare professionals and farmers. Among females the highest risks were seen in artists (SMR 399, 95% CI 244–616) and bar staff (SMR 182, 95% CI 123–260); nurses also had an increased risk (SMR 123, 95% CI 104–145). People in creative occupations and the entertainment industry – artists (both genders), musicians (males) and actors (males) – were at increased risk, although the absolute numbers of deaths in these occupations were low. In males (SMR 192, 95% CI 165–221) and females (SMR 170, 95% CI 149–194), care workers were at increased risk and had a considerable number of suicide deaths.

Conclusions: Specific contributors to suicide in high-risk occupations should be identified and measures – such as workplace-based interventions – put in place to mitigate this risk. The construction industry seems to be an important target for preventive interventions.

Internet use resulted in better answers, but also in significant and persistent overestimation of information problem-solving ability and performance, even in more accurate postdictive metacognitive judgments

Will using the Internet to answer knowledge questions increase users’ overestimation of their own ability or performance? Stephanie Pieschl. Media Psychology, Sep 24 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/15213269.2019.1668810

Abstract: Using the Internet is ubiquitous, but not all of the consequences of this habitual technology use are known. Theoretical models and related research suggest that the act of searching for information on the Internet itself may bias users toward overestimating themselves. The current study is the first direct empirical test of this assumption. In a two-by-two design, n = 184 participants were randomly assigned to between-subject Internet or NoInternet conditions in each of two phases: In the Induction Phase 1, participants made predictive metacognitive judgments about their ability to answer a first set of explanatory knowledge questions. In the Target Phase 2, they made predictive and postdictive metacognitive judgments about their ability to answer a second, entirely unrelated set of explanatory knowledge questions and answered two of these questions. Results show that Internet use affected tasks only in the same phase, but not in subsequent unrelated phases. Internet use resulted in better answers, but also in significant and persistent overestimation of information problem-solving ability and performance, even in more accurate postdictive metacognitive judgments. Potential consequences of this side effect of Internet use are discussed such as premature termination of information problem-solving and suboptimal performance.

Check also Illusion of Knowledge through Facebook News? Effects of Snack News in a News Feed on Perceived Knowledge, Attitude Strength, and Willingness for Discussions. Svenja Schäfer. Computers in Human Behavior, September 4 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/09/illusion-of-knowledge-through-facebook.html

Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate

Hoogeveen, Suzanne, Alexandra Sarafoglou, and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers. 2019. “Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate.” PsyArXiv. September 25. doi:10.31234/osf.io/egw9d

Abstract: Large-scale collaborative projects recently demonstrated that several key findings from the social science literature could not be replicated successfully. Here we assess the extent to which a finding’s replication success relates to its intuitive plausibility. Each of 27 high-profile social science findings was evaluated by 233 people without a PhD in psychology. Results showed that these laypeople predicted replication success with above-chance performance (i.e., 58%). In addition, when laypeople were informed about the strength of evidence from the original studies, this boosted their prediction performance to 67%. We discuss the prediction patterns and apply signal detection theory to disentangle detection ability from response bias. Our study suggests that laypeople’s predictions contain useful information for assessing the probability that a given finding will replicate successfully.