Sunday, June 13, 2021

We view sustainability as a requirement that welfare should not be expected to decline over time; it depends on the production technology available to society

Sustainability in a Risky World. John Y. Campbell & Ian Martin. NBER Working Paper 28899, June 2021. DOI 10.3386/w28899

Abstract: We view sustainability as a requirement that welfare should not be expected to decline over time. We impose this requirement as a prior constraint on the consumption-savings-investment problem, and study its implications for saving, risky investment, and the social discount rate. The constraint does not distort portfolio choice, but it imposes an upper bound on the sustainable time preference rate and on the sustainable consumption-wealth ratio, which we show must lie between the riskless rate and the expected return on optimally invested wealth.

6 Conclusion

In this paper we have argued, in the spirit of Koopmans (1960, 1967), that the implication of an

ethical criterion—sustainability—for social discounting and consumption decisions depends on the

production technology available to society. Specifically, in a risky world with a binding sustainability

20constraint, the sustainable social rate of time preference and consumption-wealth ratio, which equal

one another, are not equal to either the riskless interest rate or the risky return on invested wealth,

but lie in between these two. In the special case where invested wealth has only Brownian risk and

no jump risk, the sustainable social rate of time preference is the equal-weighted average of the

riskless interest rate and the risky return.

We have made this point in the context of an extremely simple model with iid returns in which the

parameters governing the distribution of returns are known. We have therefore ignored parameter

uncertainty, a phenomenon emphasized by Weitzman (2001). We have also ignored the possibility

that returns may not be iid, because expected returns or risks change over time. Models with non-iid

returns in general imply time-varying consumption growth and a term structure of discount rates.

When consumption growth is persistent, this term structure is generally downward-sloping for safe

investments and upward-sloping for risky ones as in the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron

(2004). Gollier (2002) emphasizes the potential importance of a downward-sloping term structure

of discount rates for social discounting. Our iid model has discount rates that are invariant to the

horizon of an investment.

Although we have emphasized the sustainable social rate of time preference in this paper, we

conclude by noting that this is not the same as the appropriate social discount rate that should

be applied to an investment project. That discount rate depends on the project’s risk. For a

riskless project, the appropriate discount rate is the riskless interest rate, which is lower than the

sustainable social rate of time preference in a risky world; and for a project that has the same

risk as society’s invested wealth, the appropriate discount rate is the expected risky return, which

is higher than the sustainable social rate of time preference. Some previous discussions of social

discounting have obscured these distinctions by ignoring the risk that society faces. Our analysis is

deliberately simple in order to achieve clarity about these issues.

A 10% increase in robots per 1000 workers is associated with an approximately 10% reduction in the share of low-skilled individuals reporting poor health due in part by a reallocation of physical tasks

Does the rise of robotic technology make people healthier? Christian Gunadi, Hanbyul Ryu. Health Economics, May 27 2021.

Abstract: Technological advancements bring changes to our life, altering our behaviors as well as our role in the economy. In this paper, we examine the potential effect of the rise of robotic technology on health. Using the variation in the initial distribution of industrial employment in US cities and the difference in robot adoption across industries over time to predict robot exposure at the local labor market, we find evidence that higher penetration of industrial robots in the local economy is positively related to the health of the low-skilled population. A 10% increase in robots per 1000 workers is associated with an approximately 10% reduction in the share of low-skilled individuals reporting poor health. Further analysis suggests that the reallocation of tasks partly explains this finding. A 10% increase in robots per 1000 workers is associated with an approximately 1.5% reduction in physical tasks supplied by low-skilled workers.

Maintaining Multi-partner Relationships: Evolution, Sexual Ethics, and Consensual Non-monogamy

Mogilski, Justin, David L. Rodrigues, Justin J. Lehmiller, and Rhonda N. Balzarini. 2021. “Maintaining Multi-partner Relationships: Evolution, Sexual Ethics, and Consensual Non-monogamy.” PsyArXiv. June 8. doi:10.31234/

Abstract: Humans maintain romantic relationships for sexual gratification, childcare assistance, intimate friendship, and a host of other interpersonal benefits. In monogamous relationships (i.e., exclusive courtship between two people) individuals agree that certain benefits of the relationship (i.e., sexual contact, material resources, emotional support) may only be shared within the pair-bond. That is, each partner is expected to maintain the relationship by provisioning sufficient benefits to satisfy the needs and desires of their partner. By comparison, consensual non-monogamy (CNM) is a collection of relationship practices and structures whereby partners agree that it is permissible to have sexual contact or form intimate attachments with other people to satisfy these interpersonal needs and desires. In this chapter, we review literature examining who pursues CNM, how people who practice CNM derive and maintain satisfaction within their relationship(s), and when and how these relationships persist. We consider the role of CNM relationship maintenance practices, personality features that predispose people to CNM, and psychological and social barriers (e.g., jealousy, interpersonal conflict, sexual health anxiety, condemnation) that prevent people from pursuing or maintaining CNM. Throughout, we consider how CNM compares to infidelity as an alternative strategy for pursuing multiple, concurrent romantic or sexual relationships. We close by discussing current directions in the scientific study of CNM and highlight which gaps in the literature are most pressing to address.

Check also The Implications of Sociosexuality for Marital Satisfaction and Dissolution. Juliana E. French, Emma E. Altgelt, Andrea L. Meltzer. Psychological Science, September 4, 2019.

Cebu, Philippines: Fathers' childcare highly facultative, likely contingent on local socioecological predictors

Fathers' care in context: ‘facultative,’ flexible fathers respond to work demands and child age, but not to alloparental help, in Cebu, Philippines. Stacy Rosenbaum et al. Evolution and Human Behavior, June 12 2021.

Abstract: Current evolutionary theory conceptualizes fathers' childcare as highly facultative and likely contingent on a variety of local socioecological predictors. Much of the evolutionarily-motivated work on the predictors of paternal care has focused on smaller-scale societies, while similar, potentially complementary research in larger-scale societies has focused on theoretical frameworks from (e.g.) economics and developmental psychology. Due to the different emphases, relatively few studies have incorporated information on variables known to predict paternal care in one context with those known to predict it in the other. Here, we assess whether paternal care conforms to predictions derived from the facultative fathering hypothesis and life history theory in Cebu, the Philippines. We evaluated which of 6 variables—hours worked outside the home, age and number of children, number of other caregivers, family residence pattern, and fathers' educational attainment—predicted the number of hours fathers reported spending on 12 common caregiving tasks. Consistent with the basic premise of facultative fathering, men who worked more spent less time on childcare. Additionally, the time fathers spent on different types of caregiving reflected changes in demand as children age. However, alloparental care appears to be a complement to, rather than a substitute for, paternal care in this context, in contrast to the predictions of the facultative fathering hypothesis. We also found that men with more education reported spending more time on childcare, consistent with a caregiving strategy that emphasizes heavy investment in embodied capital across generations. Our data illustrate the context-specific nature of ‘facultative’ caregiving in humans, and highlight the importance of considering locally-relevant predictors when testing predictions derived from evolutionary theory.

Keywords: Parental carePaternal careMaternal careAllocareAllomaternal careCooperative breeding

Psychopathy as extreme B5/FFM traits: Psycho-meanness = exploitation of others & poor attachment; psycho-disinhibition = greater negative affect & poor behavioral constraint; psycho-boldness = reduced negative affect & greater narcissism

A Comparison of Two Five-Factor Model Operationalizations of the Triarchic Model of Psychopathy in a Clinical Sample. Jared R. Ruchensky et al. Assessment, June 6, 2021.

Abstract: Structural models of personality traits, particularly the five-factor model (FFM), continue to inform ongoing debates regarding what personality attributes and trait domains are central to psychopathy. A growing body of literature has linked the constructs of the triarchic model of psychopathy (boldness, meanness, disinhibition) to the FFM. Recently, researchers developed both item and regression-based measures of the triarchic model of psychopathy using the NEO Personality Inventory–Revised—a popular measure of the FFM. The current study examines the correlates of these two FFM-derived operationalizations of the triarchic model using data from the Collaborative Longitudinal Personality Disorders Study. The two approaches had strong convergent validity coefficients and similar patterns of criterion-related validity coefficients. Meanness related to greater personality pathology characterized by exploitation of others and poor attachment, whereas disinhibition related to indicators of greater negative affect and poor behavioral constraint. Boldness related to reduced negative affect and greater narcissistic personality traits. Although the item and regression-based approaches showed similar patterns of associations with criterion-variables, the item-based approach has some practical and psychometric advantages over the regression-based approach given strong correlations between the meanness and disinhibition scores from the regression approach.

Keywords: psychopathy, five-factor model, personality, personality disorders, triarchic model

From 2019... Online dating markets: Sex ratio varies widely between submarkets, with younger submarkets having more men & fewer women than older ones; minority women are younger than the average in older submarkets

From 2019... Structure of Online Dating Markets in U.S. Cities. Elizabeth E. Bruch and M. E. J. Newman. Sociological Science, April 2, 2019. 10.15195/v6.a9

Abstract: We study the structure of heterosexual dating markets in the United States through an analysis of the interactions of several million users of a large online dating website, applying recently developed network analysis methods to the pattern of messages exchanged among users. Our analysis shows that the strongest driver of romantic interaction at the national level is simple geographic proximity, but at the local level, other demographic factors come into play. We find that dating markets in each city are partitioned into submarkets along lines of age and ethnicity. Sex ratio varies widely between submarkets, with younger submarkets having more men and fewer women than older ones. There is also a noticeable tendency for minorities, especially women, to be younger than the average in older submarkets, and our analysis reveals how this kind of racial stratification arises through the messaging decisions of both men and women. Our study illustrates how network techniques applied to online interactions can reveal the aggregate effects of individual behavior on social structure.

Check also Men's revealed preference for their mates' ages. Kitae Sohn. Evolution and Human Behavior, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2017, Pages 58-62.


The experience of mate selection is frequently described, both in popular discourse and the scientific literature, in the language of markets: An individual’s goal is to secure the best possible mate for themselves in the face of competition from others. However, we know little about the structure of these romantic markets in part for lack of appropriately detailed data. The advent and vigorous growth of the online dating industry in the last two decades provides a new source of data about courtship interactions on an unprecedented scale. In this study, we have provided a first look at how network analysis techniques can reveal the structure of U.S. dating markets as evidenced by interactions on a popular dating website. Across the United States as a whole, we find that geography is the defining feature of national dating markets. Within cities, submarkets are defined by age as well as other demographic factors—most notably, race. We find that submarket structure is shaped by both first-messaging patterns and replies. Threequarters of all reciprocated messages fall within submarkets, and only one-quarter fall between individuals in different submarkets. A larger fraction, about 43 percent, of all first messages are between different submarkets, which indicates that people do attempt to contact partners outside of their submarkets, but those attempts are often unsuccessful. Overall, our results reveal the aggregate implications of individuals’ mate choices and suggest that metropolitan areas are best characterized as a collection of geographically integrated but demographically distinct submarkets. More generally, our study illustrates how state-of-the-art network science techniques can be applied to rich data from online interactions or administrative records to reveal subtle features of social structure. In recent years, the growing availability of search data from online sources has led to interest in how individuals’ choices reveal submarkets in other social domains (Piazzesi, Schneider, and Stroebel 2015; Rae 2015). As we have shown in the dating context, market outcomes reflect the choices made by actors on both sides (e.g., men and women in heterosexual dating markets, workers and firms in job markets). Our approach could straightforwardly be extended to look at structural features of housing or job markets, and we view this as a fruitful direction for future work. 

Statements without discernible meaning that consists of modern, abstract words, created to impress & not to inform, were attributed to famous philosophers & physicists (Nietzsche, Plato, Hawking, Einstein) or uncredible authors (Johnny Depp, Bruce Willis, Mel Gibson, Brad Pitt)

The effect of source credibility on bullshit receptivity. Sandra Ilić, Kaja Damnjanović. Applied Cognitive Psychology, June 3 2021.

Summary: Pseudo-profound bullshit pertains to grammatically and syntactically correct but meaningless sentences, that, due to syntactical correctness appear as made to communicate something and research shows that people deem them profound. However, the effect of differing source credibility on bullshit profoundness evaluations has, to our knowledge, not yet been tested. We presented participants with pseudo-profound bullshit alone and with authors of different credibility. In order to partly replicate and extend on the findings regarding mechanisms of receptivity and sensitivity to bullshit we collected profoundness evaluations for mundane statements and proverbs, and different measures of analytic thinking. Ascribing credible authors leads to an increase while ascribing uncredible authors leads to a decrease in profoundness evaluations. Cognitive reflection protects against the tendency to evaluate any type of statement as profound and drives better differentiation between pseudo- and conventionally truly profound, while positive views about actively open-minded thinking enable stronger effects of credible authorship.