Sunday, August 15, 2021

Things do not become more desirable just because we have chosen them before: The "mere choice effect", an economic psychology classic, fails under scrutiny

Does choice change preferences? An incentivized test of the mere choice effect. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Georg D. Granic. Experimental Economics, Aug 15 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10683-021-09728-5

Abstract: Widespread evidence from psychology and neuroscience documents that previous choices unconditionally increase the later desirability of chosen objects, even if those choices were uninformative. This is problematic for economists who use choice data to estimate latent preferences, demand functions, and social welfare. The evidence on this mere choice effect, however, exhibits serious shortcomings which prevent evaluating its possible relevance for economics. In this paper, we present a novel, parsimonious experimental design to test for the economic validity of the mere choice effect addressing these shortcomings. Our design uses well-defined, monetary lotteries, all decisions are incentivized, and we effectively randomize participants’ initial choices without relying on deception. Results from a large, pre-registered online experiment find no support for the mere choice effect. Our results challenge conventional wisdom outside economics. The mere choice effect does not seem to be a concern for economics, at least in the domain of decision making under risk.


Conclusion

Using a novel, parsimonious experimental design, we have presented the first conclusive evidence on the economic validity of the mere-choice-induced preference change phenomenon. We do not find any evidence which could be interpreted as mere-choice-induced preference change. Of course, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, but, given the power analysis underlying our analysis, the simplest explanation for our results at this point is that mere-choice-induced preference change in economic domains does not exist or is of a negligible magnitude.

From predicting consumer behavior to cost-benefit analyses of medical treatments to welfare comparisons of alternative market institutions, many applications of standard theories of decision making under risk are built on the possibility to organize observed choices through underlying stable preferences. We have shown that the latter view seems appropriate with regard to mere-choice-induced preference changes.

Of course, as with any other experiment finding a null effect, it might still be the case that the alleged effect exists under some additional condition not fulfilled in our design. For instance, we have manipulated choice in lottery pairs by previous choices involving the riskier of the two lotteries in the pair, in the sense that the two monetary outcomes of that lottery are slightly more extreme than the ones of the alternative. However, as the mere-choice effect is understood in the literature, it should have been effective in our experiment, and additional conditions would come on top of received descriptions of the alleged effect.

We should also remark that we have studied the pure effect of uninformative choice on preference. A related stream of literature in psychology, which regrettably used a flawed design (see Alós-Ferrer and Shi, 2015, for details), can be seen as incorporating some form of tradeoff in choice. If tradeoffs are a necessary precondition for the phenomenon to emerge then appropriate experimental designs will have to be developed, with an eye on separating this potential source from the pure effect of choice. At this point, however, we can conclude that the phenomenon of mere-choice-induced preference change is weak or nonexistent and, therefore, probably not very relevant in economically-relevant domains. 

Women that score high on agreeableness are significantly less likely to discuss politics online than men with the same trait; also find significant differences in the way the personality traits extraversion & openness influence women’s & men’s participation

It’s a man’s (online) world. Personality traits and the gender gap in online political discussion. Simone Abendschön & Gema García-Albacete. Information, Communication & Society, Aug 14 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2021.1962944

Abstract: Despite initial optimism, a gender gap seems to exist in online political engagement. In this article, we focus on online political discussion and show that women use the internet to discuss politics significantly less than men. We propose that this is a ‘new’ gender gap and not a simple reflection of the traditional gender gap in offline political discussion activities. A unique dataset from Germany facilitates an empirical comparison of online and offline political discussion and their explanatory factors. We contend that the online environment imposes additional obstacles to women’s willingness to discuss politics as the result of a hostile environment and distinct socialization patterns. The resulting gap is visible in terms of specific personality traits that women, in comparison to men, require to discuss politics online. Using the ‘Big Five’ personality trait repertory, we show that women that score high on agreeableness are significantly less likely to discuss politics online than men with the same trait. We also find significant differences in the way the personality traits extraversion and openness influence both women’s and men’s participation in online and offline discussion.

KEYWORDS: Gender gaponline engagementpolitical discussionpersonalityBig Five


From 2020... There are few things as irrefutable as the evidence that our limbs belong to us, but persons with body integrity dysphoria deny the ownership of one of their fully functional limbs and seek its amputation

From 2020... Neural Correlates of Body Integrity Dysphoria. Gianluca Saetta et al. Current Biology, May 07, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.04.001

Highlights

• Target limb sensorimotor area shows a breakdown of the functional connectivity

• Left premotor cortex typically involved in limb multimodal integration is atrophic

• Right parietal area representing body shape is structurally and functionally altered

• Atrophy in this right parietal area correlates with simulation of being an amputee

Summary: There are few things as irrefutable as the evidence that our limbs belong to us. However, persons with body integrity dysphoria (BID) [1] deny the ownership of one of their fully functional limbs and seek its amputation [2]. We tapped into the brain mechanisms of BID, examining sixteen men desiring the removal of the left healthy leg. The primary sensorimotor area of the to-be-removed leg and the core area of the conscious representation of body size and shape (the right superior parietal lobule [rSPL]) [3, 4] were less functionally connected to the rest of the brain. Furthermore, the left premotor cortex, reportedly involved in the multisensory integration of limb information [5, 6, 7], and the rSPL were atrophic. The more atrophic the rSPL, the stronger the desire for amputation, and the more an individual pretended to be an amputee by using wheelchairs or crutches to solve the mismatch between the desired and actual body. Our findings illustrate the pivotal role of the connectivity of the primary sensorimotor limb area in the mediation of the feeling of body ownership. They also delineate the morphometric and functional alterations in areas of higher-order body representation possibly responsible for the dissatisfaction with a standard body configuration. The neural correlates of BID may foster the understanding of other neuropsychiatric disorders involving the bodily self. Ultimately, they may help us understand what most of us take for granted, i.e., the experience of body and self as a seamless unity.


Meanings Ascribed to Sex and Commitment Among College-Attending and Non-College Emerging Adults: 5 Types, i.e. committers, connectors, flexibles, testers, & recreationers

Meanings Ascribed to Sex and Commitment Among College-Attending and Non-College Emerging Adults: A Replication and Extension. Spencer B. Olmstead, Kayley D. McMahan & Kristin M. Anders. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Aug 9 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10508-021-02042-4

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine how meanings ascribed to sex and commitment vary based on educational background, gender, and other correlates using a large sample of college-attending and non-college emerging adults (ages 18–25; N = 669). Findings from our content analysis replicated previous research by identifying meanings focused on commitment (47.8%), flexibility (22.7%), and recreation (17.8%). We also found two additional meanings focused on finding a sexual connection (termed Connectors; 9.1%) and using sex to test relationship compatibility (termed Testers; 2.5%), which were not found in previous studies on sex and commitment. A greater proportion of women than men were in the Committers group, whereas a greater proportion of men than women were in the Recreationers group. A greater proportion of heterosexual than sexual minority participants were in the Committers group, whereas a greater proportion of sexual minority than heterosexual participants were in the Flexibles and Testers groups. A greater proportion of those in committed relationships than those in casual or no relationships were in the Committers group, whereas a greater proportion of those in casual relationships than those in committed or no relationships were in the Recreationers group. Those in the Recreationers group reported the greatest average number of hookup partners in the last 12 months (compared to all others), and those in the Recreationers and Testers groups reported the greatest average number of lifetime sexual partners (compared to all others). Implications for future research and sexual health education for emerging adults are discussed.


A man who had been partnered up for a longer time was more highly appreciated by women for long- and short term mating

Women’s Sensitivity to Men’s Past Relationships: Reliable Information Use for Mate-Choice Copying in Humans. Yoichi Amano & Yoshinori Wakao. Evolutionary Psychological Science, Aug 14 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40806-021-00295-9

Abstract: Mate-choice copying is a phenomenon whereby females assess the mate quality of males based on the mating decisions of other females. Previous studies demonstrated that the presence of a partner enhanced men’s attractiveness. Mate assessment is, however, error-prone, and the accepted male may turn out to be of poor quality after the relationship has progressed. This study extended the previous research by focusing on more reliable social information about male quality as a long-term partner: duration and interval of past relationships. Japanese female students (N = 201) were presented with a male profile containing information about past relationships, and they rated the target males as long- and short-term partners. The results confirm that information about a man’s long past relationship enhances the women’s desirability ratings for that man as a long-term partner. It was also found that a man with a long relationship was preferred by sexually inexperienced women, even in the short-term mating context, if the interval between the man’s past relationships was long. The study findings show that female mate choice is influenced by information about males’ past relationships, in addition to the information about male’s past partners discussed in previous studies. The finding for short-term mating suggests that it is used as a foothold for long-term relationships by females who may have lower mate value. The findings of this study add a new aspect to the non-independent mechanism of human mate choice.


In municipalities where the Spanish Inquisition persecuted more citizens, incomes are lower, trust is lower, and education is markedly lower than in other comparable towns and cities

The long-run effects of religious persecution: Evidence from the Spanish Inquisition. Mauricio Drelichman, Jordi Vidal-Robert, and Hans-Joachim Voth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,  August 17, 2021 118 (33) e2022881118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2022881118

Significance: From Imperial Rome to North Korea, religious persecution entwined with various degrees of totalitarian control has caused conflict and bloodshed for millennia. In this paper, we ask the following: Can religious persecution have repercussions long after it has ceased? Using data on the Spanish Inquisition, we show that in municipalities where the Spanish Inquisition persecuted more citizens, incomes are lower, trust is lower, and education is markedly lower than in other comparable towns and cities. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition to still matter today, but it does.

Abstract: Religious persecution is common in many countries around the globe. There is little evidence on its long-term effects. We collect data from all across Spain, using information from more than 67,000 trials held by the Spanish Inquisition between 1480 and 1820. This comprehensive database allows us to demonstrate that municipalities of Spain with a history of a stronger inquisitorial presence show lower economic performance, educational attainment, and trust today. The effects persist after controlling for historical indicators of religiosity and wealth, ruling out potential selection bias.


A man who had been partnered up for a longer time was more highly appreciated by women for long- and short term mating

Meanings Ascribed to Sex and Commitment Among College-Attending and Non-College Emerging Adults: A Replication and Extension. Spencer B. Olmstead, Kayley D. McMahan & Kristin M. Anders. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Aug 9 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10508-021-02042-4

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine how meanings ascribed to sex and commitment vary based on educational background, gender, and other correlates using a large sample of college-attending and non-college emerging adults (ages 18–25; N = 669). Findings from our content analysis replicated previous research by identifying meanings focused on commitment (47.8%), flexibility (22.7%), and recreation (17.8%). We also found two additional meanings focused on finding a sexual connection (termed Connectors; 9.1%) and using sex to test relationship compatibility (termed Testers; 2.5%), which were not found in previous studies on sex and commitment. A greater proportion of women than men were in the Committers group, whereas a greater proportion of men than women were in the Recreationers group. A greater proportion of heterosexual than sexual minority participants were in the Committers group, whereas a greater proportion of sexual minority than heterosexual participants were in the Flexibles and Testers groups. A greater proportion of those in committed relationships than those in casual or no relationships were in the Committers group, whereas a greater proportion of those in casual relationships than those in committed or no relationships were in the Recreationers group. Those in the Recreationers group reported the greatest average number of hookup partners in the last 12 months (compared to all others), and those in the Recreationers and Testers groups reported the greatest average number of lifetime sexual partners (compared to all others). Implications for future research and sexual health education for emerging adults are discussed.


Unusual sexual interests could be clustered into 5 factors that were largely comparable for women and men: submission/masochism, forbidden sexual activities, dominance/sadism, mysophilia, and fetishism

Schippers EE, Smid WJ, Huckelba AL, et al. Exploratory Factor Analysis of Unusual Sexual Interests. J Sex Med 2021;XX:XXX–XXX. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsxm.2021.07.002

Abstract

Background: Unusual sexual interests are largely intercorrelated, yet not much is known about underlying patterns of clusters between various sexual interests.

Aim: To identify underlying clusters of unusual sexual interests using exploratory factor analysis.

Methods: We conducted exploratory factor analysis with self-reported interest in a wide variety of unusual sexual acts for an online, international sample (N = 669; 61% female), and for women and men separately. Factor regression weights were correlated to self-reported sex life satisfaction, sexual outlet, and psychiatric symptoms.

Outcomes: Participants rated the attractiveness of 50 unusual sexual activities, and reported on their sex life satisfaction (Arizona Sexual Experiences Scale), sexual outlet, and symptoms regarding ADHD (Adult ADHD Self-Report Screening Scale for DSM-5), depression, anxiety, and stress (Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale).

Results: We identified 5 factors of unusual sexual interests that were largely comparable for women and men: submission/masochism, forbidden sexual activities, dominance/sadism, mysophilia (attraction to dirtiness or soiled things), and fetishism. For women, unusual sexual interests related to more psychiatric symptoms and higher sexual outlet, whereas this relation was less explicit for men.

Clinical Implications: Different factors of unusual sexual interests may serve different underlying functions or motivations, for instance related to sexual, and emotional regulation. A better understanding of the nature of unusual sexual interests is important to be able to influence sexual interests that are unwanted or cause damage to others.

Strengths & Limitations: Strength of this study include its anonymity, the avoidance of sexual orientation effects, and the possibility to indicate only a slight endorsement toward sexual items. Limitations include the sample's generalizability and the truthfulness of online responding.

Conclusion: Unusual sexual interests could be clustered into 5 factors that were largely comparable for women and men: submission/masochism, forbidden sexual activities, dominance/sadism, mysophilia, and fetishism. 

Key Words: Sexual InterestsParaphiliaExploratory Factor AnalysisSubmissionMasochismDominanceSexual Outlet


Claim: One-third of Investors Trade While Drunk

One-third of Investors Trade While Drunk. John Sullivan. 401k Specialist, August 12, 2021. https://401kspecialistmag.com/one-third-of-investors-trade-while-drunk

Drunk texting is humiliating, drunk trading is devastating. With a nod to target-date funds and their “set it and forget” nature that helps avoid emotional market moves, nearly a third of investors admit to trading while intoxicated, a potential portfolio-killing move.

The interesting survey, from consumer finance website MagnifyMoney, also finds that 66% of investors have regretted “an impulsive or emotionally charged” investing decision.

“One can imagine how trading apps make this easier than in the old days when an investor might have had to call their broker from the bar,” writes MagnifyMoney’s Kamaron McNair. “Younger investors admit to falling into this trap much more frequently than older traders, with 59% of Gen Zers admitting to drinking and trading, versus just 9% of baby boomers.”

Among the findings

.    66% of investors have made an impulsive or emotionally charged investing decision they later regretted. This is more common for Gen Zers (85%) and millennials (73%) than Gen Xers (60%) and baby boomers (54%).

.    32% of investors have traded while drunk. This includes 59% of Gen Z investors who have bought or sold an investment while inebriated — more than any other age group.

.    Consumers who manage their portfolios generally have a harder time keeping emotions out of investing than those who rely on a financial advisor. Those who self-manage their investments report higher rates of lost sleep and regrettable decisions than those who use an advisor.

.    Most investors (58%) agree their portfolio performs better when emotions are left out of the equation, but that’s easier said than done. Nearly half (47%) report difficulties keeping emotions out of investing decisions.

.    37% of investors have lost sleep worrying about the stock market, and 30% have cried over investing. The top reasons for tears include losing money in the stock market (43%), feeling overwhelmed (36%), and selling too early (34%).


Very preliminary, fragmentary, with lots of limitations... Exploring Male Multiple Orgasm in a Large Online Sample: Refining Our Understanding

Griffin-Mathieu G, Berry M, Shtarkshall RA, Amsel R, Binik YM, Gérard M. Exploring Male Multiple Orgasm in a Large Online Sample: Refining Our Understanding. J Sex Med 2021;XX:XXX–XXX. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsxm.2021.06.017

Abstract

Background: The scientific literature on multiple orgasm in males is small. There is little consensus on a definition, and significant controversy about whether multiple orgasm is a unitary experience.

Aims: This study has 2 goals: (i) describing the experience of male multiple orgasm; (ii) investigating whether there are different profiles of multiple orgasm in men.

Methods: Data from a culturally diverse online convenience sample of 122 men reporting multiple orgasm were collected. Data reduction analyses were conducted using principal components analysis (PCA) on 13 variables of interest derived from theory and the existing literature. A K-means cluster analysis followed, from which a 4-cluster solution was retained.

Results: While the range of reported orgasms varied from 2 to 30, the majority (79.5%, N = 97) of participants experienced between 2 and 4 orgasms separated by a specific time interval during which further stimulation was required to achieve another orgasm. Most participants reported maintaining their erections throughout and ejaculating with every orgasm. Age was not a significant correlate of the multiple orgasm experience which occurred more frequently in a dyadic context. Four different profiles of multiorgasmic men were described.

Strengths & Limitations: This study constitutes a rare attempt to collect systematic self-report data concerning the experience of multiple orgasm in a relatively large sample. Limitations include the lack of validated measures, memory bias associated with self-reported data and retrospective designs, the lack of a control group and of physiological measurement.

Conclusion: Our study suggests that multiple orgasm in men is not a unitary phenomenon and sets the stage for future self-report and laboratory study.

Key Words: Multiple OrgasmEjaculationOrgasmRefractory periodPsychosexual


A reduction in state, due to a negative stimulus, reduces fitness more than a positive stimulus of equal objective magnitude increases it, producing a negativity bias due to the difference in subjective stimulus potency

Negativity bias: An evolutionary hypothesis and an empirical programme. John Lazarus. Learning and Motivation, Volume 75, August 2021, 101731. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lmot.2021.101731

Highlights

• Hypothesis: negativity bias evolves when fitness is a concave function of state.

• Threat explanation of negativity bias unsound if based on incommensurate stimuli.

• Incommensurate stimuli can be studied for bias using the loss aversion paradigm.

• The ‘potency equivalence function’ measures equipotency of incommensurate stimuli.

Abstract: Across many psychological domains there is evidence of negativity bias: the greater subjective potency of negative events when compared with positive events of the same objective magnitude. Here I propose a general evolutionary explanation for the phenomenon: the concave fitness-state (CFS) hypothesis. The CFS hypothesis proposes, with evidence from feeding, drinking and economic domains, that various motivational, emotional and cognitive states – through which stimuli activate responses – have a concave downwards (diminishing returns) relationship with fitness. Where this is the case it follows that <. In discussing other approaches to understanding the phenomenon I critique the proposal that negativity bias can be explained as an adaptive response to the particular importance and urgency of dealing with threat, by arguing that: (1) where negative stimuli interpretable as threat, and contrasting positive stimuli, cannot be measured in a commensurate manner they cannot be validly tested for negativity bias; and (2) since threat stimuli and positive stimuli generally impact different states a greater potency for threat stimuli should generally be interpreted in terms of motivational competition rather than negativity bias. I suggest two ways of circumventing the problem of incommensurate stimuli when studying stimulus bias. The first is to use the loss aversion paradigm: rating the value of the same stimulus when presented as either a gain or a loss in relation to a reference value. Second, understanding the relative subjective potencies of positive and negative stimuli across a range of objective stimulus magnitudes, even when incommensurate, can be achieved experimentally by finding pairs of positive and negative stimuli which, though measured on different scales of magnitude, are equipotent. That is, they have equal and opposite effects on fitness, well-being or stimulus evaluation. These stimulus pairs constitute a potency equivalence function, which describes the shape of the relationship between equipotent positive and negative stimulus magnitudes.


2. Current evolutionary explanations for negativity bias

2.1. Threat

While a number of causal mechanisms have been proposed for the negativity bias phenomenon (Cacioppo, Gardner, & Berntson, 1997Baumeister et al., 2001Cacioppo & Berntson, 1994Kellermann, 1984Park & Van Leeuwen, 2014Rozin & Royzman, 2001Taylor, 1991) there are rather few evolutionary explanations, the dominant idea focussing on threat:

‘To the extent that it is more difficult to reverse the consequences of an injurious or fatal assault than an opportunity unpursued, a propensity to react more strongly to negative than positive stimuli may have developed through the process of natural selection’ (Cacioppo & Berntson, 1994: 413, emphasis added).

‘From our perspective, it is evolutionarily adaptive for bad to be stronger than good. We believe that throughout our evolutionary history, organisms that were better attuned to bad things would have been more likely to survive threats and, consequently, would have increased probability of passing along their genes. As an example, consider the implications of foregoing options or ignoring certain possible outcomes. A person who ignores the possibility of a positive outcome may later experience significant regret at having missed an opportunity for pleasure or advancement, but nothing directly terrible is likely to result. In contrast, a person who ignores danger (the possibility of a bad outcome) even once may end up maimed or dead. Survival requires urgent attention to possible bad outcomes, but it is less urgent with regard to good ones. Hence, it would be adaptive to be psychologically designed to respond to bad more strongly than good.. . . At the broadest level, we argue that bad is stronger than good because responding to the world in this way is adaptive.. . . This argument is admittedly speculative.’ (Baumeister et al., 2001: 325, 357, emphasis added).

‘In the extreme, negative events are more threatening than are positive events beneficial. The clear example here is death, a final, irreversible event. Avoiding risks of death must be a matter of the highest priority in the evolutionary scheme; the peak of vigilance and investment would well be oriented to escape death. It is true that reproduction is the final measure of evolutionary success, but there are usually multiple opportunities to reproduce, and death terminates these options.. . . Negative events often develop more rapidly and require a rapid response. The model, of course, is predator threat.. . . Negative events. . . require a more sophisticated appraisal, because the options for action [related to threat] are more varied [than for]. . . positive entities’ (Rozin & Royzman, 2001: 314).

‘When directly compared or weighted against each other, losses loom larger than gains. This asymmetry between the power of positive and negative expectations or experiences has an evolutionary history. Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce’ (Kahneman, 2012: 282).

Others have expressed the same view, including the need for an urgent response to threat stimuli (Norris, 2019: 3Peeters & Czapinski, 1990: 55Pratto & John, 1991: 380Taylor, 1991: 78).

Considered broadly, the impact of threat can be overestimated. In particular, prey animals maintain a level of vigilance to pre-empt the risk of undetected attack and adjust this level in response to changes in predation risk and competing demands (Beauchamp, 2015). Responses to a change in threat level can therefore be subtle and involve little cost. For example, risk increases as group size declines and birds adjust vigilance level accordingly, increasing and decreasing it in response to the stimulus of individuals leaving the group and joining it, respectively (Roberts, 1995). (This also exemplifies the broader point that a response to one stimulus has to be understood in the context of conflicting stimuli and internal states: section 4.2.) Further, the need for urgency emphasised in the above quotes is also crucial for a successful response to some positive events, such as a prey item that needs to be chased and captured, a potential mate that must be courted, or any rewarding stimulus subject to competition with others, and Kahneman (2012: 301) makes a similar point. All this being said, however, and as the emphases in the first two quotes above argue, threat does have a particular potency in that failure to respond efficiently to an imminent attack can reduce fitness greatly and irrecoverably, or be fatal.

But how relevant for the concept of negativity bias is this contrast between threat and the qualitatively different positive events and opportunities of the above quotes that represent what I will call the ‘threat hypothesis’? The positive and negative events here – an opportunity to mate or obtain a resource versus the risk of assault, say – are, it seems, largely both stimulus-incommensurate and, more importantly, state-incompatible. And if the relevant stimuli are stimulus-incommensurate it is difficult to see how their magnitudes can be validly compared using existing methods in order to test for negativity bias (see section 1.2) and thus to test the threat hypothesis itself; in sections 5.2 and 5.3 I suggest techniques that can overcome this problem. In addition, there is a particular problem with the threat hypothesis if used to explain the evolution of choices between actions when state-incompatible positive and negative stimuli are present simultaneously. In this case it seems more valid to explain the outcome in terms of competition between different states for the control of stimulus evaluation and behaviour rather than in terms of stimulus bias and without reference to state (and I use ‘competition’ informally here, rather than in any technical motivational sense; e.g. McFarland, 1974).

This argument holds most clearly for apparently natural behaviours in the real world, the kinds of behaviour imagined in the above quotes arguing for an evolutionary role for threat in the negativity bias phenomenon. But what happens, conceptually, when we bring participants from the real world into the lab and linguistic and visual stimuli carry negative meanings which are measurable in ways that can be shared with positive stimuli? Since this does not in itself make the positive and negative stimuli state-compatible, I would argue that it is not sufficient to validate a negativity bias analysis. Again, the relative potency of different states, rather than of stimuli acting on the same state, is at issue.

And what if the negative attributions in such a lab study were processed by neural systems evolved to deal with threats to the person? Does this change the argument and how far might the threat hypothesis go then in explaining negativity bias across the very disparate domains in which it has been suggested to have a role? Although many negativity bias experiments employ negative stimuli that are not obviously physically threatening some studies seem to suggest that neural processes classify such stimuli as fear inducing. The speed of processing of disagreeable ethical statements (Van Berkum, Holleman, Nieuwland, Otten, & Murre, 2009) is one example. Another is activation of the amygdala, which is associated with the processing of negative emotional stimuli, including threat, but also with positive stimuli (Adolphs, Tranel, Damasio, & Damasio, 1995Toates, 2007: 318–320). Although amygdala activation occurs during loss aversion – a stronger evaluation against a loss than for an equivalent gain (section 3.3) – I have found evidence for this only for gambles rather than the riskless evaluation typical of the negativity bias literature (De Martino, Camerer, & Adolphs, 2010Kahn et al., 2002Sokol-Hessner, Camerer, & Phelps, 2013). Since the amygdala is also responsive to uncertainty without biological relevance (Herry et al., 2007Hsu, Bhatt, Adolphs, Tranel, & Camerer, 2005) these neural responses to loss aversion in a gambling context may represent heightened vigilance in response to uncertainty (Whalen, 2007) rather than a reaction to threat. And importantly it would be good to know more about neural processing in riskless evaluation more relevant to negativity bias; Garavan, Pendergrass, Ross, Stein, and Risinger (2001) found equal amygdala activation for positive and negative stimuli of roughly matched magnitude.

All this being said, if it turns out that physically innocuous negative stimuli are routinely processed in the same way as threats to the person this still seems to leave these negative stimuli in a qualitatively different and state-incompatible condition to most positive stimuli. And this state-incompatibility is an even stronger reason for concern about the potential over-generalization of the negativity bias phenomenon than that based on stimulus-incommensurateness and pointed out by others (Norris, 2019Rozin & Royzman, 2001: 300Taylor, 1991: 68). To repeat, competition seems to be the correct concept when considering the interaction between incompatible states and it would be conceptually preferable to reserve the notion of negativity bias for the phenomenon of bias based on the unequal potency of stimuli of equal objective magnitude.

2.2. Other evolutionary accounts

Park & Van Leeuwen’s (2014: 89–90) asymmetric behavioural homeostasis hypothesis ‘conceptualizes many motivational processes as 1-sided homeostatic mechanisms and. . . predicts that motivational responses. . . amplified by certain cues will not be reversed simply by reversing the input cues. . . [so] that many evolutionarily adaptive. . . responses to fitness threats (e.g., fears, aversions) are more easily inflamed than dampened’.

Rozin and Royzman (2001: 314) point to a class of negative contagious events, ‘[t]he basic model [being] the germ, for which there is not an obvious positive parallel’ and which has ‘by a process of preadaptation, spread through other domains of life (such as morality)’.

Finally, when there is uncertainty about the nature or existence of events, adaptive decisions will take account not only of their likely consequence, good or bad, but also of their likelihood of occurrence. Signal detection theory and error management theory then provide the methods for calculating the potency of stimuli and any cognitive biases that emerge from best responses. Negativity bias may then be predicted for events including threatening stimuli, contaminants and biases in interpersonal perception (Haselton & Nettle, 2006).

2.3. Conclusion

A number of evolutionary accounts of negativity bias, of varying degrees of potential generality, have been provided.

In the following section I propose an evolutionary hypothesis to explain negativity bias which is potentially of wide generality, and in section 3.3 I consider the relationship between this hypothesis and some other accounts of negativity bias, evolutionary, psychological and economic. 

Consumers' ratings for restaurants are lower when they went to the restaurants on special occasions, which can be explained by one theory of attribution bias (disappointment of high expectations)

Huang, Ying-Kai, Hope Hurts: Attribution Bias in Yelp Reviews (July 22, 2021). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3891195

Abstract: This paper incorporates applied econometrics, causal machine learning and theories of reference-dependent preferences to test whether consuming in a restaurant on special occasions, such as one's birthday, anniversary, commencement, etc., would increase people's expectations and would make consumers rate their consumption experiences lower. Furthermore, our study is closely linked to the emerging literature of attribution bias in economics and psychology and provides a scenario where we can test two leading theories of attribution bias empirically. In our paper, we analyzed reviews from Yelp and combined the text analyses with regressions, matching techniques and causal machine learning. Through a series of models, we found evidence that consumers' ratings for restaurants are lower when they went to the restaurants on special occasions. This result can be explained by one theory of attribution bias where people have higher expectations about restaurants on special occasions and then misattribute their disappointment to the quality of the restaurants. From the connection between our empirical analysis and theories of attribution bias, this paper provides another piece of evidence of how attribution bias influences people's perceptions and behaviors.

Keywords: Attribution Bias, Reference Dependence, Online Reviews, Causal Machine Learning

JEL Classification: D91, D83, D12