Lessons from the economics of populism. Governor Lesetja Kganyago’s address at the ABSIP National Conference Johannesburg. Friday October 19 2019. https://www.bis.org/review/r181019b.pdf
At the end of the road one cannot avoid wondering whether the mistakes of past populist regimes can be internalized by policymakers, politicians, and the population at large and, thus, be avoided in the future. Quite clearly, [history] suggest[s] that, in general, there is very little capacity (or willingness) of learning from other countries’ experiences. Indeed, one of the most striking regularities of these episodes is the insistence with which the engineers of the populist programs argue that their circ umstances are unique and thus immune from historical lessons from other nations.
-Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards
My speech today is about populism, about its appeal and its weaknesses. Populism wins supporters in part because it speaks to ordinary people about real problems – problems other leaders can be too embarrassed or nervous to confront. For instance, when Hugo Chávez attacked corruption and inequality in Venezuela, he wasn’t just making troub le. He was confronting some longstanding problems of Venezuelan society. But populism also has a bad side: it pretends there are easy solutions, even where the re are none – where the problems are in fact very difficult.
Often the easy solutions have unintended effects, impacts that populists ignore or are unaware of. It is these unintended effects that usually end up hurting the people those easy solutions were meant to help. Populist governments tend to be especially weak on economics, which is a common reason why their projects fail. In my speech today, I will explore what it is about economics that populism get wrong, and what we can learn from that.
The knowledge I will detail is mostly drawn from Latin America, a place where populism has flourished o ver the past century. This experience is relevant for us because these economies closely resemble ours. In particular, they are middle income countries with high levels of inequality. Of course, every country is different. But the populist experience has b een so similar, across so many countries and time periods, that we can pull together a few clear lessons relevant to our times and circumstances.
Economic populism starts with deep dissatisfaction. 1 Too much unemployment, too much inequality, too much pove rty. The populist solution is to start spending – push as much demand as possible into the economy, without consideration of constraints. The argument is that more spending will make people better off. More demand encourages more supply, meaning more jobs and more investment. It’s supposed to be a virtuous circle. So the government starts spending money – as much as possible. It borrows from people’s pension funds. It borrows from the central bank and demands it buys its debt – which means printing money. I t spends the foreign exchange reserves. And at first sight, it works. As scholars of populism have noted, the immediate consequence of these policies tends to be a n economic boom. People who warn that populism is a disaster will look foolish.
There is mor e growth and big wage increases and more jobs. But it doesn’t last. Time and time again, the boom turns to bust. Inflation shoots up and growth collapses. Some populists realise their strategy has failed and change course. Others put their countries throug h even greater pain. During the 1950s, the Argentine president Juan Perón effectively aborted his populist programme when inflation neared 50%. 2 In Peru, Alan García abandoned his stimulus programme in 1988, with inflation well over 1000%. 3 In Venezuela, inflation is expected to reach one million percent this year, 4 and people are fleeing the country to find food, but the policy direction still hasn’t changed. What is it about the populist recipe that goes wrong? The literature focuses on t wo kinds of constraints: inflation and the balance of payments. Now these are things populists probably don’t see coming. They don’t understand the causes of inflation very well. And they may not even know what the balance of payments is. But these are pow erful forces, and ignoring them doesn’t mean they will leave you alone.
The inflation problem is fairly simple. If a government wants to stimulate demand, it will want low interest rates, and it will demand that the central bank print money to buy its bonds. This extra money does a couple of things. It raises demand, and with the economy running hot, firms and workers put up their prices. It causes the exchange rate to depreciate. And because people see the government is printing money, they start to put a lot of time and effort into figuring out where inflation is going, and raising their prices to keep ahead of it. This process then gets worse over time. In the first year, you get a fair amount of growth and a bit more inflation. In the second year, you get even more inflation and less growth. A few years in, inflation is running at very high levels – there are cases of inflation exceeding several thousand per cent a year, including Peru and Brazil, and as Zimbabwe showed us, there are many more zeroes th at can be added after that. This is poison to an economy – it destroys people’s savings and shuts down longer-term credit markets. It also interferes with the everyday business of buying and selling goods and services. So what starts with a nice growth bum p ends in a deep depression, and a large increase in poverty.
The other constraint is the balance of payments. When a populist government starts to push up spending, it increases domestic demand. That doesn’t change foreign demand so you don’t get more ex ports. In fact, local producers will probably be so worried about policy consistency and rising inflation that exports will stagnate. But the import bill still rises as demand booms, and that import bill needs to be paid somehow. Populists may hope that ne w demand will all go into domestic production, but they are invariably proved wrong. There are no modern economies that produce everything they need locally, from oil to machinery to food to smartphones. And foreigners like to be paid in hard currency, not an inflation and depreciation-prone currency. The shortage of forex therefore becomes a constraint – a bottleneck. No matter how much demand you push into the economy, you don’t get more supply because you can’t finance enough imports.
In economic terms, the import - intensity of demand means an economy can overheat even when other factors of production are lying idle, with high unemployment or factories operating below capacity. The symptoms of this foreign exchange constraint will be a widening current ac count deficit and strong depreciation pressure on the currency. So long as there are foreign exchange reserves left, or there are people willing to lend you dollars, the boom can go on. But as financing dries up, the government ends up going to the only le nder who will still take its calls, the IMF. Of course, the IMF isn’t interested in funding an unsustainable spending programme.
S o this means accepting the kind of spending cuts populists started out rejecting. There is also a third kind of constraint o n populism, which moves a bit slower but may be the most dangerous of all. I’ll call it the “ know - how ” constraint, and it is fundamentally about the sources of wealth.
In the populist narrative, that story is simple. They say, our country is rich. If the p eople are poor, that must be because someone else has hoarded these riches – like foreigners, or elites. The solution, then, is to redistribute the wealth to the people. In practice, however, although populists reliably point to sources of great wealth that they plan to redistribute – oil, land, gold, or something else – they invariably run into macroeconomic trouble. The wealth doesn’t cover the extra spending they want t o do. And they don’t appreciate that their anti-market rhetoric and policies disrupt production and kill off investment. As a result, they can deliver t emporary consumption booms, but not lasting improvements in welfare.
Redistributing an existing stock of wealth does not mean that that stock of wealth can be built again. Perhaps the most profound meditation on why this happens comes from Ricardo Hausmann, a Venezuelan economist and former finance minister currently teaching at Harvard. Professor Hausmann has, of course, had personal experience of a country that seems rich but whose people are nonetheless persistently poor. Accordingly, his analysis emphasises the value of know - how, of expertise. 5 Lasting wealth, by this account, isn’t in a country’s soil but in its citizen’s heads. Countries get rich because people develop specialised skills, and because they find ways to cooperate so they can do things much too complex for any individual to do a lone. To handle all this complexity and specialisation, people gather in firms, and firms interact in markets. The state can help with this whole process, for instance through investing in education, guaranteeing security and providing other public goods.
But if the state declares war on market mechanisms and condemns rich people, it starts to break the machine that generates wealth. It kills off investment. It scares skilled people away. In this world, natural resources don’t get used effectively, no matte r how abundant they are, and the economy doesn’t develop other kinds of industries either. This theory helps explain why resource wealth does not always generate national prosperity.
Certainly, there are countries with natural resources that are either v ery rich, like Norway, or that are reasonably prosperous, like Botswana. But there are also countries with the exact same resources that are poor, like Angola with oil or Sierra Leone with diamonds. And while there are countries that lack extraordinary nat ural resource endowments and are poor, like Malawi, 6 there are also countries that are resource - poor but highly developed, like South Korea or Germany. Clearly, there is more to wealth than winning the commodity lottery. This message doesn’t appeal to populists. For instance, p opulists do not want to hear about how a resource like oil is difficult to extract, that it requires highly qualified people and carefully maintained infrastructure and well - organised firms to manage the whole process.
More broadly, populists aren’t really interested in the hard work of development, the patient progress whereby you grow incomes by a few per cent a year, until after a generation you’ve become a developed country. For them, the country is already rich, and because the c ountry is rich, the problem must be that someone is stealing the wealth. Unfortunately, people fall for ‘get rich quick’ schemes all the time, and countries can fall for them too. There is abundant evidence that the economic strategy of populism leaves pe ople worse off than they were before. Yet somehow, the same ideas show up time and again, as if no - one ever learned from past mistakes.
The disaster playing out in Venezuela at the moment is no surprise to anyone who knows anything about Latin American history. We have seen the same basic story in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru and elsewhere. But all these economic disasters on Venezuela’s doorstep couldn’t spare that country from doing the same terrible things to itself. Yet it is perhaps too strong to conclude humans never learn. Venezuela aside, other countries have learned from populist mistakes, and constructed defences against repeating those errors. The fundamental mistake of economic populism is failing to understand constraints. Accordingly, the fundamental solution countries have adopted is building constraints into their policy framework. Instead of madly insisting there are no limits, no constraints, that everything is possible, policymakers look for what freedom of manoeuvre they enjoy within economic reality. In a sense, they design their macroeconomies to have brakes and airbags, not just accelerators.
Of course, accelerators are still useful. Modern policymakers almost universally acknowledge that there are ti mes and places where policy stimulus is appropriate. But those tools are for smoothing output over the cycle. They can’t deliver long - run development, and they won’t work in the presence of bottlenecks. If a government is facing rising inflation and a bind ing balance of payments constraint, stimulus is precisely the wrong strategy – as Turkey’s financial crisis is once again reminding us. Denying this reality just makes reality more painful. So what are the policy frameworks countries use to accommodate re ality? Latin American economists like to talk about a policy tripod, comprising inflation targeting, a floating exchange rate, and measures to protect fiscal sustainability.
The first part of the tripod, inflation targeting, directly tackles the problem of the inflation constraint, without sacrificing flexibility. If an economy is struggling and inflation is low, it’s an easy call to cut rates. If inflation expectations are well - anchored in line with the target, it’s easy to look through temporary supply sh ocks, such as oil or food price spikes. And if inflation is rising and inflation expectations are getting out of control, the policy framework will tell you it’s time to tighten, and an independent central bank will have the means to do so. If twenty years ago Venezuela had embraced inflation targeting and central bank independence, today they would have low and stable inflation, not hyperinflation. And they would be richer for it, even though they would at some point had to raise rates and made themselves unpopular. It is better to have unpopular central bankers from time to time than hyperinflation and expanding poverty.
The second leg of the policy tripod is a floating, market - determined exchange rate. Again, this sends everyone the right signals. If the currency is depreciating, it tells importers to cut back, and it tells exporters to raise production. By contrast, a fixed exchange rate helps everyone hide from economic realities too long – leading an economy to rely too much on imports, and to borrow too much in foreign currency. Fixed exchange rates create the appearance of stability, but they are so brittle that when they fail, they fall apart completely, doing tremendous damage.
By contrast, f loating exchange rate regimes are volatile, but resilient – they give you bad news immediately and help you deal with it, instead of storing it up for later. The final leg of the tripod is some kind of fiscal rule, to protect government’s solvency even when short-term pressures to spend more and borrow more are very high.
Chile, for example, has built systems to save copper income in good times, so when bad times come they don’t have to slash spending at the worst possible moment. Brazil has a fiscal responsibility law, which is meant to guarantee a primary budge t surplus except in emergencies, so debt levels stabilise over the economic cycle. Unfortunately, fiscal rules have proven eas y to break. The result is that countries can slip back into unsustainable fiscal policies, as has happened in Brazil, even as the other parts of the tripod stay standing.
In South Africa, we have implemented a policy of fiscal tr ansparency, so everyone can see what fiscal policy is doing and what we expect it to do. This has prompted a clear message from analysts, investors, the ratings agencies, international organisations and others that South Africa needs to maintain budget responsibility and get State-Owned Enterprise risks under control. This is a priority government has reiterated in successive Budget documents.
This macroeconomic tripod is not perfect. Unfortunately, there is no constitutional autopilot that can be written into law and will then produce national prosperity. That said, a sound macroeconomic framework can prevent a lot of pain. This is important, because the temp tation to do the wrong thing is clearly strong. This is evident from all the economic mistakes countries have made in history, and continue to make today. But I also know it is true because I often hear people in South Africa contemplating these temptations.
People ask, wouldn’t it be worth taking big risks, having more inflation, borrowing as much as we can get away with, if only we could get some growth and some jobs? They even say, in a highly unequal country like South Africa, wouldn’t it be politically safer to take macroeconomic risks to try and get poverty and unemployment lower? But this is wrong, for two reasons.
First, this only seems attractive until you’ve actually tried it. Macroeconomic stability is like oxygen. You don’t miss it until you have n’t got it, and then it’s all you can think about. People who want to engineer a short term boom and ignore the long term costs won’t like it when the long-term shows up, which history suggest normally starts after about two years. If you don’t think inflation matters, go try some. Or ask all the Zimbabweans or Venezuelans who had to leave their countries when their economies collapsed. Unorthodox policies have totally orthodox consequences, as those people can confirm.
Second, countries with difficult social foundations need to be more careful about macroeconomic stability, not more reckless. That’s because a macroeconomic crisis is an incredibly wrenching social experience, and you need a very strong society to get through one peacefully. When a country blows up its own macroeconomy, its policy options narrow, to the point where all the choices are bad ones. If you can get anyone to lend to you, it will be the IMF.
One way or another, you will end up doing real and brutal austerity. What we have had in South Africa over the past few years isn’t anything like this. We have interest rates close to all-time lows – the repo rate is at 6.5% currently – and government spending has been increasing every year, faster than inflation.
Real austerity is having interes t rates at 6 5%, as in Argentina at present, and cutting pensions and grants and firing government employees. We should avoid reckless economic policies unless we want to risk putting our society through that pain and stress
This brings me to end of my speech. In conclusion, I would like to leave you with four principles for confronting populist economic policies, drawn from the ideas I have discussed today. First, rich countries don’t make rich people. If your development strategy is to return the wealth of the country to the people, you don’t have a development strategy. Real, lasting wealth is about know-how, not natural resources.
Second, if you hear someone urging stimulus and going for growth, ask how they plan on dealing with the macroeconomic constraints. What’s the plan for inflation? How are they going to meet the import bill to avoid a balance of payments crisis? If they don’ t have a serious answer, they aren’t serious. If they do have a serious answer, expect it to include policies like inflation targeting, a floating exchange rate and measures for keeping the fiscus solvent. These things cannot be ignored.
South Africa’s sti mulus and recovery package do es take these into account. Third, acute challenges of inequality, poverty and unemployment are not reasons to gamble on macroeconomic stability. South Africa’s social challenges mean we need to be extra careful about managin g the system carefully so it doesn’t blow up – not that we need to run the system as hot as we can get it and hope for the best. Finally, don’t ignore populists completely. They are very good at tapping into social frustrations – in a way, they are uncann ily good instruments for detecting where society is hurting most. They aren’t very good at economics, so their ideas routinely end in disaster, but that doesn’t mean they are altogether foolish. Rather, they are a reminder to better informed, more responsi ble people that things have to change. We cannot just say the populist path will end in disaster. It will. But we still have to point out another path. You cannot just be against populism – you need to be for something too. We need to talk about how we ar e going to get back to real and sustainable growth in South Africa.
Thank you.
---
1 This discussion of populist macroeconomics draws on the seminal essay by Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards (1990) “The Macroeconomics of Populism” in The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, University of Chicago Press
2 Paul H. Lewis (1990). The Crisis of Argentine Capitalism, University of North Carolina Press
3 John Crabtree (1992) Peru Under García: An Opportunity Lost, University of Pittsburgh Press
4 Alejandro Werner (2018, July 23) “Outlook for the Americas: A tougher recovery” Available at: https://blogs.imf.org/2018/07/23/outlook-for-the-americas-a-tougher-recovery/
5 Hausmann, R., (2016). Economic Development and the Accumulation of Know - how. Welsh Economic Review. 24, pp.13 – 16. Available at: http://doi.org/10.18573/j.2016.10049. See also Hausmann (2017, March) “Das Knowhow Kapital” available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/south-africa-zuma-knowhow-shortage-by-ricardo-hausmann-2017-03
6 For a discussion of the Malawian example, see Paul Collier (2007) The Bottom Billion, Oxford University Press
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Talk from climate scientists might reduce support for climate regulation, & from health scientists might undermine public health; popular media stuff about racial bias & disadvantage may exacerbate discrimination
Elegant Science Narratives and Unintended Influences: An Agenda for the Science of Science Communication. Hart Blanton, Elif G. Ikizer. Social Issues and Policy Review, https://doi.org/10.1111/sipr.12055
Abstract: Scientists must share their work with the public in order to promote science‐based public discourse and policies. These acts of science communication are often evaluated in terms of their ability to inform (i.e., introduce accurate and accessible information) and engage (i.e., capture interest and maintain attention). We focus on a third basis by which science communication might be judged, influence. Science communicators exert influence when they shape public opinions in ways that affect their judgments and decisions, alter social and political discourse and debate, and guide social policy. We describe how the influence of any given science communication should be evaluated independent of its ability to inform or engage. We give particular attention in our analysis to the often unintended influences that well‐meaning science communicators can have. We begin by considering ways that communications from climate scientists might reduce support for climate regulation and communications from health scientists might undermine public health. We then develop two “case studies,” drawn from social psychology. These show how popular media descriptions of the science of racial bias and disadvantage might in some cases exacerbate racial discrimination and reduce concern for the disadvantaged. We close with an agenda for a more vigorous science of science communication; one that engages in two complementary pursuits. Critical studies identify the dominant and consequential effects that popular science communicators are having on public perceptions. Strategic studies advance and empirically test communication strategies that scientists can pursue to reduce—rather than exacerbate—social problems.
Abstract: Scientists must share their work with the public in order to promote science‐based public discourse and policies. These acts of science communication are often evaluated in terms of their ability to inform (i.e., introduce accurate and accessible information) and engage (i.e., capture interest and maintain attention). We focus on a third basis by which science communication might be judged, influence. Science communicators exert influence when they shape public opinions in ways that affect their judgments and decisions, alter social and political discourse and debate, and guide social policy. We describe how the influence of any given science communication should be evaluated independent of its ability to inform or engage. We give particular attention in our analysis to the often unintended influences that well‐meaning science communicators can have. We begin by considering ways that communications from climate scientists might reduce support for climate regulation and communications from health scientists might undermine public health. We then develop two “case studies,” drawn from social psychology. These show how popular media descriptions of the science of racial bias and disadvantage might in some cases exacerbate racial discrimination and reduce concern for the disadvantaged. We close with an agenda for a more vigorous science of science communication; one that engages in two complementary pursuits. Critical studies identify the dominant and consequential effects that popular science communicators are having on public perceptions. Strategic studies advance and empirically test communication strategies that scientists can pursue to reduce—rather than exacerbate—social problems.
Assignment to a region in the global South causes Mormon missionaries to report greater interest in development/poverty; no difference in support for government aid/higher immigration, or in personal donations
Crawfurd, Lee. 2019. “Does Temporary Migration from Rich to Poor Countries Cause Commitment to Development? Evidence from Quasi-random Mormon Mission Assignments.” SocArXiv. January 10. doi:10.31235/osf.io/3hwga
Abstract: Public support in rich countries for global development is critical for sustaining effective government and individual action But the causes of public support are not well understood. Temporary migration to developing countries might play a role in generating individual commitment to development, but finding exogenous variation in travel with which to identify causal effects is rare. In this paper we address this question using a natural experiment – the assignment of Mormon missionaries to two-year missions in different world regions – and test whether the attitudes and activities of returned missionaries differ. I find that assignment to a region in the global South causes returned missionaries to report greater interest in global development and poverty, but no difference in support for government aid or higher immigration, and no difference in personal donations or other involvement.
Abstract: Public support in rich countries for global development is critical for sustaining effective government and individual action But the causes of public support are not well understood. Temporary migration to developing countries might play a role in generating individual commitment to development, but finding exogenous variation in travel with which to identify causal effects is rare. In this paper we address this question using a natural experiment – the assignment of Mormon missionaries to two-year missions in different world regions – and test whether the attitudes and activities of returned missionaries differ. I find that assignment to a region in the global South causes returned missionaries to report greater interest in global development and poverty, but no difference in support for government aid or higher immigration, and no difference in personal donations or other involvement.
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Bullshit receptivity: Robustly associated with socially conservative (vs. liberal) self-placement, resistance to change; lowest among right-of-center social liberal voters & highest among left-wing greens
The complex relation between receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit and political ideology. Nilsson, Artur; ERLANDSSON, Arvid and Västfjäll, Daniel (2018) In Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, http://lup.lub.lu.se/record/7d3b0b76-5bdf-4339-9235-673e9aafb3e0
Abstract: This research systematically mapped the relationship between political ideology and receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit—that is, obscure sentences constructed to impress others rather than convey truth. Among Swedish adults (N = 985), bullshit receptivity was (a) robustly positively associated with socially conservative (vs. liberal) self-placement, resistance to change, and particularly binding moral intuitions (loyalty, authority, purity), (b) associated with centrism on preference for equality and even leftism (when controlling for other aspects of ideology) on economic ideology self-placement, and (c) lowest among right-of-center social liberal voters and highest among left-wing green voters. Most of the results held up when we controlled for perceived profundity of genuine aphorisms, cognitive reflection, numeracy, information processing bias, gender, age, education, religiosity, and spirituality. The results are supportive of theoretical accounts that posit ideological asymmetries in cognitive orientation, while also pointing to the existence of bullshit receptivity among both right- and left-wingers.
Check also Bullshit Makes the Art Grow Profounder: Evidence for False Meaning Transfer Across Domains. Martin Harry Turpin. MA Thesis, Waterloo Univ., Ontario. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/pairing-abstract-art-pieces-with.html
And Bullshit-sensitivity predicts prosocial behavior. Arvid Erlandsson et al. PLOS, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/bullshit-receptivity-perceived.html
Abstract: This research systematically mapped the relationship between political ideology and receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit—that is, obscure sentences constructed to impress others rather than convey truth. Among Swedish adults (N = 985), bullshit receptivity was (a) robustly positively associated with socially conservative (vs. liberal) self-placement, resistance to change, and particularly binding moral intuitions (loyalty, authority, purity), (b) associated with centrism on preference for equality and even leftism (when controlling for other aspects of ideology) on economic ideology self-placement, and (c) lowest among right-of-center social liberal voters and highest among left-wing green voters. Most of the results held up when we controlled for perceived profundity of genuine aphorisms, cognitive reflection, numeracy, information processing bias, gender, age, education, religiosity, and spirituality. The results are supportive of theoretical accounts that posit ideological asymmetries in cognitive orientation, while also pointing to the existence of bullshit receptivity among both right- and left-wingers.
Check also Bullshit Makes the Art Grow Profounder: Evidence for False Meaning Transfer Across Domains. Martin Harry Turpin. MA Thesis, Waterloo Univ., Ontario. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/pairing-abstract-art-pieces-with.html
And Bullshit-sensitivity predicts prosocial behavior. Arvid Erlandsson et al. PLOS, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/bullshit-receptivity-perceived.html
Who Expresses Opinions in a Hostile Online Forum Environment and When: An individual’s race, issue involvement, issue knowledge, fear of isolation, & the revelation of identity influenced opinion expression
Who Expresses Opinions in a Hostile Online Forum Environment and When. Yu Won Oh. Mass Communication and Society, https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2019.1565785
Abstract: This study examines the issue of who tends to speak out against the tide of opinions on an online discussion forum, and which forum conditions facilitate an individual’s public expression of honest opinions. In response to the call for experimental research, this study employed simulated online forums to place participants in multifaceted hostile online discussion situations. The findings indicate that an individual’s race, issue involvement, issue knowledge, fear of isolation, and the revelation of identity influenced opinion expression online. In particular, fear of isolation, which has been pointed out as the main reason for silencing minority opinion holders, played an unexpected role as a motivator for frank expression of opinions online.
Keywords: Conditional features, experiments, hostile opinion environment, online discussion forums, opinion expression, speaking-out behavior
Abstract: This study examines the issue of who tends to speak out against the tide of opinions on an online discussion forum, and which forum conditions facilitate an individual’s public expression of honest opinions. In response to the call for experimental research, this study employed simulated online forums to place participants in multifaceted hostile online discussion situations. The findings indicate that an individual’s race, issue involvement, issue knowledge, fear of isolation, and the revelation of identity influenced opinion expression online. In particular, fear of isolation, which has been pointed out as the main reason for silencing minority opinion holders, played an unexpected role as a motivator for frank expression of opinions online.
Keywords: Conditional features, experiments, hostile opinion environment, online discussion forums, opinion expression, speaking-out behavior
Pornographic Content and Real-Life Sexual Experiences in German Students: A considerable proportion of participants had no interest to experience activities they liked in pornography, especially unconventional activities
Pornographic Content and Real-Life Sexual Experiences: Findings From a Survey of German University Students. Urszula Martyniuk, Lukasz Okolski & Arne Dekker. Journal of Sex & Marital Therapy, https://doi.org/10.1080/0092623X.2018.1531334
Abstract: The aim of this study was to explore liked pornographic content and real-life experience with the depicted sexual activities in a nationwide sample of 1,197 German university students. The results indicate that there is a positive, content-specific association. Generally, the link was stronger for less conventional (less widespread) practices. However, a considerable proportion of participants had no interest to experience activities they liked in pornography and this was especially the case for the unconventional activities. This indicates that pornography use may constitute a distinct form of sexuality and may create an “intimate space” for sexual fantasies.
Abstract: The aim of this study was to explore liked pornographic content and real-life experience with the depicted sexual activities in a nationwide sample of 1,197 German university students. The results indicate that there is a positive, content-specific association. Generally, the link was stronger for less conventional (less widespread) practices. However, a considerable proportion of participants had no interest to experience activities they liked in pornography and this was especially the case for the unconventional activities. This indicates that pornography use may constitute a distinct form of sexuality and may create an “intimate space” for sexual fantasies.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Drawings of real-world scenes during free recall reveal detailed object and spatial information in memory
Drawings of real-world scenes during free recall reveal detailed object and spatial information in memory. Wilma A. Bainbridge, Elizabeth H. Hall & Chris I. Baker. Nature Communications, volume 10, Article number: 5 (2019). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07830-6
Abstract: Understanding the content of memory is essential to teasing apart its underlying mechanisms. While recognition tests have commonly been used to probe memory, it is difficult to establish what specific content is driving performance. Here, we instead focus on free recall of real-world scenes, and quantify the content of memory using a drawing task. Participants studied 30 scenes and, after a distractor task, drew as many images in as much detail as possible from memory. The resulting memory-based drawings were scored by thousands of online observers, revealing numerous objects, few memory intrusions, and precise spatial information. Further, we find that visual saliency and meaning maps can explain aspects of memory performance and observe no relationship between recall and recognition for individual images. Our findings show that not only is it possible to quantify the content of memory during free recall, but those memories contain detailed representations of our visual experiences.
Abstract: Understanding the content of memory is essential to teasing apart its underlying mechanisms. While recognition tests have commonly been used to probe memory, it is difficult to establish what specific content is driving performance. Here, we instead focus on free recall of real-world scenes, and quantify the content of memory using a drawing task. Participants studied 30 scenes and, after a distractor task, drew as many images in as much detail as possible from memory. The resulting memory-based drawings were scored by thousands of online observers, revealing numerous objects, few memory intrusions, and precise spatial information. Further, we find that visual saliency and meaning maps can explain aspects of memory performance and observe no relationship between recall and recognition for individual images. Our findings show that not only is it possible to quantify the content of memory during free recall, but those memories contain detailed representations of our visual experiences.
We recorded in a part of the macaque area TEO that is activated more by curved surfaces than by flat surfaces at different disparities using the same stimuli
Single-cell responses to three-dimensional structure in a functionally defined patch in macaque area TEO. Amir-Mohammad Alizadeh, Ilse C. Van Dromme, and Peter Janssen. Journal of Neurophysiology, https://doi.org/10.1152/jn.00198.2018
Abstract: Both dorsal and ventral visual pathways harbor several areas sensitive to gradients of binocular disparity (i.e., higher-order disparity). Although a wealth of information exists about disparity processing in early visual (V1, V2, and V3) and end-stage areas, TE in the ventral stream, and the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) in the dorsal stream, little is known about midlevel area TEO in the ventral pathway. We recorded single-unit responses to disparity-defined curved stimuli in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activation elicited by curved surfaces compared with flat surfaces in the macaque area TEO. This fMRI activation contained a small proportion of disparity-selective neurons, with very few of them second-order disparity selective. Overall, this population of TEO neurons did not preserve its three-dimensional structure selectivity across positions in depth, indicating a lack of higher-order disparity selectivity, but showed stronger responses to flat surfaces than to curved surfaces, as predicted by the fMRI experiment. The receptive fields of the responsive TEO cells were relatively small and generally foveal. A linear support vector machine classifier showed that this population of disparity-selective TEO neurons contains reliable information about the sign of curvature and the position in depth of the stimulus.
NEW & NOTEWORTHY We recorded in a part of the macaque area TEO that is activated more by curved surfaces than by flat surfaces at different disparities using the same stimuli. In contrast to previous studies, this functional magnetic resonance imaging-defined patch did not contain a large number of higher-order disparity-selective neurons. However, a linear support vector machine could reliably classify both the sign of the disparity gradient and the position in depth of the stimuli.
Abstract: Both dorsal and ventral visual pathways harbor several areas sensitive to gradients of binocular disparity (i.e., higher-order disparity). Although a wealth of information exists about disparity processing in early visual (V1, V2, and V3) and end-stage areas, TE in the ventral stream, and the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) in the dorsal stream, little is known about midlevel area TEO in the ventral pathway. We recorded single-unit responses to disparity-defined curved stimuli in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activation elicited by curved surfaces compared with flat surfaces in the macaque area TEO. This fMRI activation contained a small proportion of disparity-selective neurons, with very few of them second-order disparity selective. Overall, this population of TEO neurons did not preserve its three-dimensional structure selectivity across positions in depth, indicating a lack of higher-order disparity selectivity, but showed stronger responses to flat surfaces than to curved surfaces, as predicted by the fMRI experiment. The receptive fields of the responsive TEO cells were relatively small and generally foveal. A linear support vector machine classifier showed that this population of disparity-selective TEO neurons contains reliable information about the sign of curvature and the position in depth of the stimulus.
NEW & NOTEWORTHY We recorded in a part of the macaque area TEO that is activated more by curved surfaces than by flat surfaces at different disparities using the same stimuli. In contrast to previous studies, this functional magnetic resonance imaging-defined patch did not contain a large number of higher-order disparity-selective neurons. However, a linear support vector machine could reliably classify both the sign of the disparity gradient and the position in depth of the stimuli.
More legislation, more violence? The impact of Dodd-Frank in Congo: Increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%
More legislation, more violence? The impact of Dodd-Frank in the DRC. Nik Stoop, Marijke Verpoorten, Peter van der Windt. PLOS, Aug 09 2018, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201783
Abstract: The Dodd Frank Act was passed by the US Congress in July 2010 and included a provision—Section 1502—that aimed to break the link between conflict and minerals in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. To date there is only one rigorous quantitative analysis that investigates the impact of Dodd-Frank on local conflict events. Looking at the short-term impact (2011–2012), it finds that the policy backfired. This study builds on a larger, more representative, dataset of mining sites and extends the time horizon by three years (2013–2015). The results indicate that the policy also backfired in the longer run, especially in areas home to gold mines. For territories with the average number of gold mines, the introduction of Dodd-Frank increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%, compared to pre-Dodd Frank averages. Delving deeper into the impact of the conflict minerals legislation is important, as President Trump suspended the legislation in February 2017 for a two-year period, ordering his administration to replace it with another policy.
Summary in https://www.cato.org/publications/research-briefs-economic-policy/more-legislation-more-violence-impact-dodd-frank
Abstract: The Dodd Frank Act was passed by the US Congress in July 2010 and included a provision—Section 1502—that aimed to break the link between conflict and minerals in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. To date there is only one rigorous quantitative analysis that investigates the impact of Dodd-Frank on local conflict events. Looking at the short-term impact (2011–2012), it finds that the policy backfired. This study builds on a larger, more representative, dataset of mining sites and extends the time horizon by three years (2013–2015). The results indicate that the policy also backfired in the longer run, especially in areas home to gold mines. For territories with the average number of gold mines, the introduction of Dodd-Frank increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%, compared to pre-Dodd Frank averages. Delving deeper into the impact of the conflict minerals legislation is important, as President Trump suspended the legislation in February 2017 for a two-year period, ordering his administration to replace it with another policy.
Summary in https://www.cato.org/publications/research-briefs-economic-policy/more-legislation-more-violence-impact-dodd-frank
Target appearance matters more for women; it matters more for impressions on youthful/attractiveness than trustworthiness or dominance dimensions; big role of racial & gender stereotypes
Xie, S. Y., Flake, J. K., & Hehman, E. (2018). Perceiver and target characteristics contribute to impression formation differently across race and gender. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000160
Abstract: Social impressions arise from characteristics of both perceivers and targets. However, empirical research in the domain of impression formation has yet to quantify the extent to which perceiver and target characteristics uniquely contribute to impressions across group boundaries (e.g., race, gender). To what extent does an impression arise from “our mind” versus “a target’s face”, and does this process differ for impressions across race and gender? We explored this question by estimating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) from cross-classified multilevel models of 188,472 face ratings from 2,230 participants (Study 1) and 219,658 ratings from 2,984 participants (Study 2). We partitioned the total variance in ratings on a trait dimension (trustworthiness, dominance, youthful/attractiveness) into variance explained by perceivers versus targets, and compared these ICCs among different groups (e.g., ratings of own- vs. other-group targets). Overarching results reveal (a) target appearance matters more for women than men, (b) target appearance matters more for impressions on youthful/attractiveness than trustworthiness or dominance dimensions, (c) differences in perceiver/target influences across race did not consistently replicate, and (d) these differences are absent in minimal groups, supporting the role of racial and gender stereotypes in driving these effects. Overall, perceiver characteristics contribute more to impressions than target appearance. Our findings disentangle the contributions of perceiver and targets to impressions and illustrate that the process of impression formation is not equal across various group boundaries.
Abstract: Social impressions arise from characteristics of both perceivers and targets. However, empirical research in the domain of impression formation has yet to quantify the extent to which perceiver and target characteristics uniquely contribute to impressions across group boundaries (e.g., race, gender). To what extent does an impression arise from “our mind” versus “a target’s face”, and does this process differ for impressions across race and gender? We explored this question by estimating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) from cross-classified multilevel models of 188,472 face ratings from 2,230 participants (Study 1) and 219,658 ratings from 2,984 participants (Study 2). We partitioned the total variance in ratings on a trait dimension (trustworthiness, dominance, youthful/attractiveness) into variance explained by perceivers versus targets, and compared these ICCs among different groups (e.g., ratings of own- vs. other-group targets). Overarching results reveal (a) target appearance matters more for women than men, (b) target appearance matters more for impressions on youthful/attractiveness than trustworthiness or dominance dimensions, (c) differences in perceiver/target influences across race did not consistently replicate, and (d) these differences are absent in minimal groups, supporting the role of racial and gender stereotypes in driving these effects. Overall, perceiver characteristics contribute more to impressions than target appearance. Our findings disentangle the contributions of perceiver and targets to impressions and illustrate that the process of impression formation is not equal across various group boundaries.
Conditioned Pain Hypersensitivity in Male Mice and Humans: Re-exposure to a context associated with pain results in pain hypersensitivity; sensitivity is only present in males, via testosterone
Male-Specific Conditioned Pain Hypersensitivity in Mice and Humans. Loren J. Martin et al. Current Biology Jan 10 2019, https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(18)31496-9?_
Highlights
•Re-exposure to a context associated with pain results in pain hypersensitivity
•Conditioned pain sensitivity is only present in males via testosterone
•The phenomenon can be demonstrated in both mice and humans
•The phenomenon is dependent on stress and blocked by zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP)
Summary: Pain memories are hypothesized to be critically involved in the transition of pain from an acute to a chronic state. To help elucidate the underlying neurobiological mechanisms of pain memory, we developed novel paradigms to study context-dependent pain hypersensitivity in mouse and human subjects, respectively. We find that both mice and people become hypersensitive to acute, thermal nociception when tested in an environment previously associated with an aversive tonic pain experience. This sensitization persisted for at least 24 hr and was only present in males of both species. In mice, context-dependent pain hypersensitivity was abolished by castrating male mice, pharmacological blockade of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, or intracerebral or intrathecal injections of zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP) known to block atypical protein kinase C (including the protein kinase Mζ isoform). In humans, men, but not women, self-reported higher levels of stress when tested in a room previously associated with tonic pain. These models provide a new, completely translatable means for studying the relationship between memory, pain, and stress.
Keywords: pain memory sex difference translation
Highlights
•Re-exposure to a context associated with pain results in pain hypersensitivity
•Conditioned pain sensitivity is only present in males via testosterone
•The phenomenon can be demonstrated in both mice and humans
•The phenomenon is dependent on stress and blocked by zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP)
Summary: Pain memories are hypothesized to be critically involved in the transition of pain from an acute to a chronic state. To help elucidate the underlying neurobiological mechanisms of pain memory, we developed novel paradigms to study context-dependent pain hypersensitivity in mouse and human subjects, respectively. We find that both mice and people become hypersensitive to acute, thermal nociception when tested in an environment previously associated with an aversive tonic pain experience. This sensitization persisted for at least 24 hr and was only present in males of both species. In mice, context-dependent pain hypersensitivity was abolished by castrating male mice, pharmacological blockade of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, or intracerebral or intrathecal injections of zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP) known to block atypical protein kinase C (including the protein kinase Mζ isoform). In humans, men, but not women, self-reported higher levels of stress when tested in a room previously associated with tonic pain. These models provide a new, completely translatable means for studying the relationship between memory, pain, and stress.
Keywords: pain memory sex difference translation
We should acknowledge online sexual expression in adults of the general population as normal and mostly positive behavior
Are Online Sexual Activities and Sexting Good for Adults’ Sexual Well-Being? Results From a National Online Survey. Nicola Döring & M. Rohangis Mohseni. International Journal of Sexual Health, https://doi.org/10.1080/19317611.2018.1491921
Abstract
Objectives: Online sexual activities (OSA) and sexting are often framed as risk behaviors in adolescents. This study investigates experiences of adults.
Methods: Based on the positive sexuality approach, the current study measured prevalence, predictors, and perceived outcomes of OSA and sexting in a national online sample of N = 1,500 participants from Germany (ages 18–85).
Results: 68% of adults reported previous involvement in OSA and 41% in sexting. Perceived positive OSA and sexting outcomes outweighed the negative.
Conclusions: Sexual health professionals should acknowledge online sexual expression in adults of the general population as normal and mostly positive behavior.
Keywords: Cybersexuality, sexting, internet, sexual health promotion, pleasure
Check also: Sex toys, sex dolls, sex robots: Our under-researched bed-fellows. N. Döring, S. Pöschl. Sexologies, Volume 27, Issue 3, July–September 2018, Pages e51-e55. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/strong-negative-effects-are-attributed.html
Abstract
Objectives: Online sexual activities (OSA) and sexting are often framed as risk behaviors in adolescents. This study investigates experiences of adults.
Methods: Based on the positive sexuality approach, the current study measured prevalence, predictors, and perceived outcomes of OSA and sexting in a national online sample of N = 1,500 participants from Germany (ages 18–85).
Results: 68% of adults reported previous involvement in OSA and 41% in sexting. Perceived positive OSA and sexting outcomes outweighed the negative.
Conclusions: Sexual health professionals should acknowledge online sexual expression in adults of the general population as normal and mostly positive behavior.
Keywords: Cybersexuality, sexting, internet, sexual health promotion, pleasure
Check also: Sex toys, sex dolls, sex robots: Our under-researched bed-fellows. N. Döring, S. Pöschl. Sexologies, Volume 27, Issue 3, July–September 2018, Pages e51-e55. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/strong-negative-effects-are-attributed.html
Deplorables: Hatred, anger, and fear are significantly but only modestly related to political intolerance; the effects of emotions on intolerance are not consistently stronger among the unsophisticated
Gibson, James & Claassen, Christopher & Barceló, Joan. (2018). Deplorables: Emotions, Political Sophistication, and Political Intolerance. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323972786
Abstract: While scholars have shown strong and enduring interest in the role of emotions in politics, questions remain about the connections between emotions and political intolerance. First, it is not clear which emotion (if any) is likely to produce intolerance toward one’s disliked groups, with different studies favoring hatred, anger, or fear. Second, it is unclear whether these effects of emotion are moderated by sophistication, as some conventional political thought argues. Do the less-sophisticated, in other words, rely on emotions when making judgments, therefore being less tolerant than sophisticates, who rely on reason? Here, we test both hypotheses using a large representative sample of the American population. We find that hatred, anger, and fear are significantly but only modestly related to political intolerance. Moreover, the effects of emotions on intolerance are not consistently stronger among the unsophisticated. These findings provide little support for the conventional assumption that the less sophisticated rely on emotions in making political judgments.
Abstract: While scholars have shown strong and enduring interest in the role of emotions in politics, questions remain about the connections between emotions and political intolerance. First, it is not clear which emotion (if any) is likely to produce intolerance toward one’s disliked groups, with different studies favoring hatred, anger, or fear. Second, it is unclear whether these effects of emotion are moderated by sophistication, as some conventional political thought argues. Do the less-sophisticated, in other words, rely on emotions when making judgments, therefore being less tolerant than sophisticates, who rely on reason? Here, we test both hypotheses using a large representative sample of the American population. We find that hatred, anger, and fear are significantly but only modestly related to political intolerance. Moreover, the effects of emotions on intolerance are not consistently stronger among the unsophisticated. These findings provide little support for the conventional assumption that the less sophisticated rely on emotions in making political judgments.
If the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, for extreme parameter values, maximizing the welfare of the middle class requires a negative top tax rate
Taxing Top Incomes in a World of Ideas. Charles I. Jones. Stanford Univ, September 2018. https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/papers.html
Abstract: This paper considers the taxation of top incomes when the following conditions apply: (i) new ideas drive economic growth, (ii) the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, and (iii) innovation cannot be perfectly targeted by a separate research subsidy --- think about the business methods of Walmart, the creation of Uber, or the ``idea'' of Amazon.com. These conditions lead to a new term in the Saez (2001) formula for the optimal top tax rate: by slowing the creation of the new ideas that drive aggregate GDP, top income taxation reduces everyone's income, not just the income at the top. When the creation of ideas is the ultimate source of economic growth, this force sharply constrains both revenue-maximizing and welfare-maximizing top tax rates. For example, for extreme parameter values, maximizing the welfare of the middle class requires a {\it negative} top tax rate: the higher income that results from the subsidy to innovation more than makes up for the lost redistribution. More generally, the calibrated model suggests that incorporating ideas and economic growth cuts the optimal top marginal tax rate substantially relative to the basic Saez calculation.
Abstract: This paper considers the taxation of top incomes when the following conditions apply: (i) new ideas drive economic growth, (ii) the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, and (iii) innovation cannot be perfectly targeted by a separate research subsidy --- think about the business methods of Walmart, the creation of Uber, or the ``idea'' of Amazon.com. These conditions lead to a new term in the Saez (2001) formula for the optimal top tax rate: by slowing the creation of the new ideas that drive aggregate GDP, top income taxation reduces everyone's income, not just the income at the top. When the creation of ideas is the ultimate source of economic growth, this force sharply constrains both revenue-maximizing and welfare-maximizing top tax rates. For example, for extreme parameter values, maximizing the welfare of the middle class requires a {\it negative} top tax rate: the higher income that results from the subsidy to innovation more than makes up for the lost redistribution. More generally, the calibrated model suggests that incorporating ideas and economic growth cuts the optimal top marginal tax rate substantially relative to the basic Saez calculation.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Advertising as a Major Source of Human Dissatisfaction: Cross-National Evidence on One Million Europeans
Advertising as a Major Source of Human Dissatisfaction: Cross-National Evidence on One Million Europeans. Chloe Michel, Michelle Sovinsky, Eugenio Proto and Andrew J Oswald. Warwick Univ Economics Working Papers, 397. Jan 2019. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/397-2019_chloe_sovinsky_proto-oswald.pdf
Abstract: Advertising is ubiquitous in modern life.Yet might it be harmful to the happiness of nations? This paper blends longitudinal data on advertising with large-scale surveys on citizens well-being.The analysis uses information on approximately 1 million randomly sampled European citizens across 27 nations over 3 decades. We show that increases in national advertising expenditure are followed by significant declines in levels of life satisfaction.This finding is robust to adjustments for a range of potential confounders -- including the personal and economic characteristics of individuals, country fixed-effects, year dummies, and business-cycle influences.Further research remains desirable. Nevertheless, our empirical results are some of the first to be consistent with the hypothesis that, perhaps by fostering unending desires, high levels of advertising may depress societal well-being.
Abstract: Advertising is ubiquitous in modern life.Yet might it be harmful to the happiness of nations? This paper blends longitudinal data on advertising with large-scale surveys on citizens well-being.The analysis uses information on approximately 1 million randomly sampled European citizens across 27 nations over 3 decades. We show that increases in national advertising expenditure are followed by significant declines in levels of life satisfaction.This finding is robust to adjustments for a range of potential confounders -- including the personal and economic characteristics of individuals, country fixed-effects, year dummies, and business-cycle influences.Further research remains desirable. Nevertheless, our empirical results are some of the first to be consistent with the hypothesis that, perhaps by fostering unending desires, high levels of advertising may depress societal well-being.
Germany, WWII: When a particular fighter pilot received public recognition, both the victory rate & the death rate of his former peers increased, depending on the intensity of prior interactions & social distance
Killer Incentives: Relative Position, Performance and Risk-Taking Among German Fighter Pilots, 1939-45. Philipp Ager, Leonardo Bursztyn, Lukas Leucht, Hans-Joachim Voth. http://home.uchicago.edu/~bursztyn/KillerIncentivesMarch2018.pdf
Abstract: How far are people willing to go to improve their relative standing? We examine the effects of public recognition on the performance and risk-taking among fighter pilots, using newly-collected data on death rates and victory claims of more than 5,000 German pilots during World War II. When a particular fighter pilot received public recognition, both the victory rate and the death rate of his former peers increased. The strength of this spillover depends on the intensity of prior interactions and social distance. Our results suggest that an intrinsic concern about relative standing, beyond instrumental consequences associated with public recognition, was a prime motivating force.
Abstract: How far are people willing to go to improve their relative standing? We examine the effects of public recognition on the performance and risk-taking among fighter pilots, using newly-collected data on death rates and victory claims of more than 5,000 German pilots during World War II. When a particular fighter pilot received public recognition, both the victory rate and the death rate of his former peers increased. The strength of this spillover depends on the intensity of prior interactions and social distance. Our results suggest that an intrinsic concern about relative standing, beyond instrumental consequences associated with public recognition, was a prime motivating force.
Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: Selling Fast and Buying Slow
Akepanidtaworn, Klakow and Di Mascio, Rick and Imas, Alex and Schmidt, Lawrence, Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors (December 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3301277
Abstract: Most research on heuristics and biases in financial decision-making has focused on non-experts, such as retail investors who hold modest portfolios. We use a unique data set to show that financial market experts - institutional investors with portfolios averaging $573 million - exhibit costly, systematic biases. A striking finding emerges: while investors display clear skill in buying, their selling decisions underperform substantially - even relative to strategies involving no skill such as randomly selling existing positions - in terms of both benchmark-adjusted and risk-adjusted returns. We present evidence consistent with limited attention as a key driver of this discrepancy, with investors devoting more attentional resources to buy decisions than sell decisions. When attentional resources are more likely to be equally distributed between prospective purchases and sales, specifically around company earnings announcement days, stocks sold outperform counterfactual strategies similar to buys. We document managers' use of a heuristic that overweights a salient attribute of portfolio assets - past returns - when selling, whereas we do not observe similar heuristic use for buys. Assets with extreme returns are more than 50% more likely to be sold than those that just under- or over-performed. Finally, we document that the use of the heuristic appears to a mistake and is linked empirically with substantial overall underperformance in selling.
Keywords: behavioral finance; limited attention; heuristics; performance evaluation
JEL Classification: G02, G11, G23
Abstract: Most research on heuristics and biases in financial decision-making has focused on non-experts, such as retail investors who hold modest portfolios. We use a unique data set to show that financial market experts - institutional investors with portfolios averaging $573 million - exhibit costly, systematic biases. A striking finding emerges: while investors display clear skill in buying, their selling decisions underperform substantially - even relative to strategies involving no skill such as randomly selling existing positions - in terms of both benchmark-adjusted and risk-adjusted returns. We present evidence consistent with limited attention as a key driver of this discrepancy, with investors devoting more attentional resources to buy decisions than sell decisions. When attentional resources are more likely to be equally distributed between prospective purchases and sales, specifically around company earnings announcement days, stocks sold outperform counterfactual strategies similar to buys. We document managers' use of a heuristic that overweights a salient attribute of portfolio assets - past returns - when selling, whereas we do not observe similar heuristic use for buys. Assets with extreme returns are more than 50% more likely to be sold than those that just under- or over-performed. Finally, we document that the use of the heuristic appears to a mistake and is linked empirically with substantial overall underperformance in selling.
Keywords: behavioral finance; limited attention; heuristics; performance evaluation
JEL Classification: G02, G11, G23
Contrary to our expectations, there is no discernible link between emotions and estimates of minority group percentages, and in some cases, negative emotions reduce misperceptions
Nothing to fear? Anxiety, numeracy, and demographic perceptions. Yamil Ricardo Velez et al. Research & Politics, https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168018794583
Abstract: Studies have found that Americans tend to overestimate the size of minority populations, a pattern that potentially increases antipathy toward racial and ethnic outgroups due to heightened perceptions of intergroup competition. Recent research, however, suggests that providing people with accurate information about racial and ethnic demographics has no discernible impact on intergroup attitudes. In this study, we consider whether anxiety is responsible for overestimates of racial and ethnic groups in the USA. We conduct an experiment where we manipulate anxiety before asking subjects to estimate the size of racial and ethnic groups at the local and national level. Contrary to our expectations, our findings suggest that there is no discernible link between emotions and estimates of minority group percentages, and in some cases, negative emotions reduce misperceptions.
Keywords: Context, emotions, misperceptions
Abstract: Studies have found that Americans tend to overestimate the size of minority populations, a pattern that potentially increases antipathy toward racial and ethnic outgroups due to heightened perceptions of intergroup competition. Recent research, however, suggests that providing people with accurate information about racial and ethnic demographics has no discernible impact on intergroup attitudes. In this study, we consider whether anxiety is responsible for overestimates of racial and ethnic groups in the USA. We conduct an experiment where we manipulate anxiety before asking subjects to estimate the size of racial and ethnic groups at the local and national level. Contrary to our expectations, our findings suggest that there is no discernible link between emotions and estimates of minority group percentages, and in some cases, negative emotions reduce misperceptions.
Keywords: Context, emotions, misperceptions
Rolf Degen summarizing: After decades of research, we still don't have a clue about which specific components of psychotherapy are helpful for clients, or if there are even any
The Role of Common Factors in Psychotherapy Outcomes. Pim Cuijpers, Mirjam Reijnders, and Marcus J.H. Huibers. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, Vol. 15:- (Volume publication date May 2019). https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-050718-095424
Abstract: Psychotherapies may work through techniques that are specific to each therapy or through factors that all therapies have in common. Proponents of the common factors model often point to meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies that show all therapies have comparable effects. However, not all meta-analyses support the common factors model; the included studies often have several methodological problems; and there are alternative explanations for finding comparable outcomes. To date, research on the working mechanisms and mediators of therapies has always been correlational, and in order to establish that a mediator is indeed a causal factor in the recovery process of a patient, studies must show a temporal relationship between the mediator and an outcome, a dose–response association, evidence that no third variable causes changes in the mediator and the outcome, supportive experimental research, and have a strong theoretical framework. Currently, no common or specific factor meets these criteria and can be considered an empirically validated working mechanism. Therefore, it is still unknown whether therapies work through common or specific factors, or both.
Abstract: Psychotherapies may work through techniques that are specific to each therapy or through factors that all therapies have in common. Proponents of the common factors model often point to meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies that show all therapies have comparable effects. However, not all meta-analyses support the common factors model; the included studies often have several methodological problems; and there are alternative explanations for finding comparable outcomes. To date, research on the working mechanisms and mediators of therapies has always been correlational, and in order to establish that a mediator is indeed a causal factor in the recovery process of a patient, studies must show a temporal relationship between the mediator and an outcome, a dose–response association, evidence that no third variable causes changes in the mediator and the outcome, supportive experimental research, and have a strong theoretical framework. Currently, no common or specific factor meets these criteria and can be considered an empirically validated working mechanism. Therefore, it is still unknown whether therapies work through common or specific factors, or both.
How and when taking pictures undermines the enjoyment of experiences; by constantly striving to document their experiences, consumers may unwittingly fail to enjoy those experiences to the fullest
How and when taking pictures undermines the enjoyment of experiences. Gia Nardini, Richard J. Lutz, Robyn A. LeBoeuf. Psychology & Marketing, https://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21194
Abstract: The consumption of experiences (as opposed to products) has seen an increasing amount of research attention in recent years. A key aspect of the experiential consumption journey is how the experience is consumed. For instance, people almost invariably take pictures during highly enjoyable experiences such as vacations or important family events. Although past research has suggested that taking pictures may enhance the enjoyment of moderately enjoyable experiences, the effect of picture taking on the real‐time enjoyment of highly enjoyable experiences is not clear. To address this matter, the authors investigate whether taking pictures affects consumers’ enjoyment of highly enjoyable hedonic experiences. A series of laboratory studies demonstrate that taking pictures (compared with not taking pictures) can decrease enjoyment of highly enjoyable experiences. This study suggests that, by constantly striving to document their experiences, consumers may unwittingly fail to enjoy those experiences to the fullest. These results have implications for how firms may best stage experiential offerings to enhance their customers’ experiences.
Abstract: The consumption of experiences (as opposed to products) has seen an increasing amount of research attention in recent years. A key aspect of the experiential consumption journey is how the experience is consumed. For instance, people almost invariably take pictures during highly enjoyable experiences such as vacations or important family events. Although past research has suggested that taking pictures may enhance the enjoyment of moderately enjoyable experiences, the effect of picture taking on the real‐time enjoyment of highly enjoyable experiences is not clear. To address this matter, the authors investigate whether taking pictures affects consumers’ enjoyment of highly enjoyable hedonic experiences. A series of laboratory studies demonstrate that taking pictures (compared with not taking pictures) can decrease enjoyment of highly enjoyable experiences. This study suggests that, by constantly striving to document their experiences, consumers may unwittingly fail to enjoy those experiences to the fullest. These results have implications for how firms may best stage experiential offerings to enhance their customers’ experiences.
Perception of naturally dead conspecifics impairs health and longevity through serotonin signaling in Drosophila melanogaster
Perception of naturally dead conspecifics impairs health and longevity through serotonin signaling in Drosophila. Tuhin S Chakraborty, Christi M Gendron, Yang Lyu, Allyson S Munneke, Madeline N DeMarco, Zachary W Hoisington, Scott D Pletcher. bioRxiv 515312, https://doi.org/10.1101/515312
Abstract: Sensory perception modulates health and aging across taxa. Understanding the nature of relevant cues and the mechanisms underlying their action may lead to novel interventions that improve the length and quality of life. In humans, psychological trauma is often associated with the recognition of dead individuals, with chronic exposure leading to persistent mental health issues including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. The mechanisms that link mental and physical health, and the degree to which these are shared across species, remain largely unknown. Here we show that the vinegar fly, Drosophila melanogaster, has the capability to perceive dead conspecifics in its environment and that this perceptive experience induces both short- and long-term effects on health and longevity. Death perception is mediated by visual and olfactory cues, and remarkably, its effects on aging are eliminated by targeted attenuation of serotonin signaling. Our results suggest a complex perceptive ability in Drosophila that reveals deeply conserved mechanistic links between psychological state and aging, the roots of which might be unearthed using invertebrate model systems.
Abstract: Sensory perception modulates health and aging across taxa. Understanding the nature of relevant cues and the mechanisms underlying their action may lead to novel interventions that improve the length and quality of life. In humans, psychological trauma is often associated with the recognition of dead individuals, with chronic exposure leading to persistent mental health issues including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. The mechanisms that link mental and physical health, and the degree to which these are shared across species, remain largely unknown. Here we show that the vinegar fly, Drosophila melanogaster, has the capability to perceive dead conspecifics in its environment and that this perceptive experience induces both short- and long-term effects on health and longevity. Death perception is mediated by visual and olfactory cues, and remarkably, its effects on aging are eliminated by targeted attenuation of serotonin signaling. Our results suggest a complex perceptive ability in Drosophila that reveals deeply conserved mechanistic links between psychological state and aging, the roots of which might be unearthed using invertebrate model systems.
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Civil service exam based on classics strengthened civil service's social prestige & weakened that of commerce; result is a more educated population & more Confucian temples, but lower wealth level
Mattingly, Daniel, When State-Building Hinders Growth: The Legacy of China's Confucian Bureaucracy (November 28, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3292226
Abstract: Do countries with a long history of state-building fare better in the long run? Recent work has shown that earlier state-building may lead to higher levels of present-day growth. By contrast, I use a natural experiment to show that the regions of China with over a thousand years of sustained exposure to state-building are significantly poorer today. The mechanism of persistence, I argue, was the introduction of a civil service exam based on knowledge of Confucian classics, which strengthened the social prestige of the civil service and weakened the prestige of commerce. A thousand years later, the regions of China where the Confucian bureaucracy was first introduced have a more educated population and more Confucian temples, but lower levels of wealth. The paper contributes to an important debate on the Great Divergence, highlighting how political institutions interact with culture to cause long-run patterns of growth.
Keywords: state building, culture, growth, bureaucracies, institutions
Abstract: Do countries with a long history of state-building fare better in the long run? Recent work has shown that earlier state-building may lead to higher levels of present-day growth. By contrast, I use a natural experiment to show that the regions of China with over a thousand years of sustained exposure to state-building are significantly poorer today. The mechanism of persistence, I argue, was the introduction of a civil service exam based on knowledge of Confucian classics, which strengthened the social prestige of the civil service and weakened the prestige of commerce. A thousand years later, the regions of China where the Confucian bureaucracy was first introduced have a more educated population and more Confucian temples, but lower levels of wealth. The paper contributes to an important debate on the Great Divergence, highlighting how political institutions interact with culture to cause long-run patterns of growth.
Keywords: state building, culture, growth, bureaucracies, institutions
Programmed altruistic, adaptive death that increases fitness could occur in C. elegans & S. cerevisiae; could promote worm fitness by enhancing inclusive fitness, or worm colony fitness through group selection
Does senescence promote fitness in Caenorhabditis elegans by causing death? Jennifer N. Lohr, Evgeniy R. Galimov, David Gems. Ageing Research Reviews, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arr.2019.01.008
Highlights
• Senescent death of older inviduals could benefit younger kin
• Theory rules out such programmed death in outbred, dispersed populations
• C. elegans breed as non-dispersed, clonal populations of protandrous hermaphrodites
• Under these conditions programmed, adaptive death could evolve
Abstract: A widely appreciated conclusion from evolutionary theory is that senescence (aging) is of no adaptive value to the individual that it afflicts. Yet studies of Caenorhabditis elegans and Saccharomyces cerevisiae are increasingly revealing the presence of processes which actively cause senescence and death, leading some biogerontologists to wonder about the established theory. Here we argue that programmed death that increases fitness could occur in C. elegans and S. cerevisiae, and that this is consistent with the classic evolutionary theory of aging. This is because of the special conditions under which these organisms have evolved, particularly the existence of clonal populations with limited dispersal and, in the case of C. elegans, the brevity of the reproductive period caused by protandrous hermaphroditism. Under these conditions, death-promoting mechanisms could promote worm fitness by enhancing inclusive fitness, or worm colony fitness through group selection. Such altruistic, adaptive death is not expected to evolve in organisms with outbred, dispersed populations (e.g. most vertebrate species). The plausibility of adaptive death in C. elegans is supported by computer modelling studies, and new knowledge about the ecology of this species. To support these arguments we also review the biology of adaptive death, and distinguish three forms: consumer sacrifice, biomass sacrifice and defensive sacrifice.
Highlights
• Senescent death of older inviduals could benefit younger kin
• Theory rules out such programmed death in outbred, dispersed populations
• C. elegans breed as non-dispersed, clonal populations of protandrous hermaphrodites
• Under these conditions programmed, adaptive death could evolve
Abstract: A widely appreciated conclusion from evolutionary theory is that senescence (aging) is of no adaptive value to the individual that it afflicts. Yet studies of Caenorhabditis elegans and Saccharomyces cerevisiae are increasingly revealing the presence of processes which actively cause senescence and death, leading some biogerontologists to wonder about the established theory. Here we argue that programmed death that increases fitness could occur in C. elegans and S. cerevisiae, and that this is consistent with the classic evolutionary theory of aging. This is because of the special conditions under which these organisms have evolved, particularly the existence of clonal populations with limited dispersal and, in the case of C. elegans, the brevity of the reproductive period caused by protandrous hermaphroditism. Under these conditions, death-promoting mechanisms could promote worm fitness by enhancing inclusive fitness, or worm colony fitness through group selection. Such altruistic, adaptive death is not expected to evolve in organisms with outbred, dispersed populations (e.g. most vertebrate species). The plausibility of adaptive death in C. elegans is supported by computer modelling studies, and new knowledge about the ecology of this species. To support these arguments we also review the biology of adaptive death, and distinguish three forms: consumer sacrifice, biomass sacrifice and defensive sacrifice.
More than 30% in individuals' perceived income justice can be attributed to genetic variation, the rest is mostly driven by idiosyncratic environmental effects; no evidence for gene-environment interactions
Neugart, Michael and Yildirim, Selen, What Determines Perceived Income Justice: Evidence from the German TwinLife Study (November 23, 2018). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3289604
Abstract: Whether individuals perceive their income as being fair has far reaching consequences in the labor market and beyond. Yet we know little on the determinants of variation in perceived income justice across individuals. In this paper we ask whether genes can explain parts of the variation. To this end, we analyze data from the German TwinLife study. We find that more than 30% in individuals' perceived income justice can be attributed to genetic variation. The rest is mostly driven by idiosyncratic environmental effects. We, furthermore, do not find evidence for gene-environment interaction effects.
Keywords: perceived income justice, twins, behavioral genetics
JEL Classification: D10, D90
Abstract: Whether individuals perceive their income as being fair has far reaching consequences in the labor market and beyond. Yet we know little on the determinants of variation in perceived income justice across individuals. In this paper we ask whether genes can explain parts of the variation. To this end, we analyze data from the German TwinLife study. We find that more than 30% in individuals' perceived income justice can be attributed to genetic variation. The rest is mostly driven by idiosyncratic environmental effects. We, furthermore, do not find evidence for gene-environment interaction effects.
Keywords: perceived income justice, twins, behavioral genetics
JEL Classification: D10, D90
Decreased brain connectivity in smoking contrasts with increased connectivity in drinking
Decreased brain connectivity in smoking contrasts with increased connectivity in drinking. Wei Cheng et al. eLife 2019;8:e40765, https://elifesciences.org/articles/40765
Abstract: In a group of 831 participants from the general population in the Human Connectome Project, smokers exhibited low overall functional connectivity, and more specifically of the lateral orbitofrontal cortex which is associated with non-reward mechanisms, the adjacent inferior frontal gyrus, and the precuneus. Participants who drank a high amount had overall increases in resting state functional connectivity, and specific increases in reward-related systems including the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the cingulate cortex. Increased impulsivity was found in smokers, associated with decreased functional connectivity of the non-reward-related lateral orbitofrontal cortex; and increased impulsivity was found in high amount drinkers, associated with increased functional connectivity of the reward-related medial orbitofrontal cortex. The main findings were cross-validated in an independent longitudinal dataset with 1176 participants, IMAGEN. Further, the functional connectivities in 14-year-old non-smokers (and also in female low-drinkers) were related to who would smoke or drink at age 19. An implication is that these differences in brain functional connectivities play a role in smoking and drinking, together with other factors.
---
Discovered: different brain areas linked to smoking and drinking https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/discovered_different_brain
Abstract: In a group of 831 participants from the general population in the Human Connectome Project, smokers exhibited low overall functional connectivity, and more specifically of the lateral orbitofrontal cortex which is associated with non-reward mechanisms, the adjacent inferior frontal gyrus, and the precuneus. Participants who drank a high amount had overall increases in resting state functional connectivity, and specific increases in reward-related systems including the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the cingulate cortex. Increased impulsivity was found in smokers, associated with decreased functional connectivity of the non-reward-related lateral orbitofrontal cortex; and increased impulsivity was found in high amount drinkers, associated with increased functional connectivity of the reward-related medial orbitofrontal cortex. The main findings were cross-validated in an independent longitudinal dataset with 1176 participants, IMAGEN. Further, the functional connectivities in 14-year-old non-smokers (and also in female low-drinkers) were related to who would smoke or drink at age 19. An implication is that these differences in brain functional connectivities play a role in smoking and drinking, together with other factors.
---
Discovered: different brain areas linked to smoking and drinking https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/discovered_different_brain
Approximately 13% of Europe’s workers have a bad boss; these bosses are most common in the Transport sector and large organizations
How Common are Bad Bosses? Benjamin Artz, Amanda H Goodall, and Andrew J Oswald. September 2018. http://www.andrewoswald.com/docs/BadBossesSeptember2018ArtzGoodallOswald.pdf
Abstract: Bosses play an important role in workplaces. Yet little is currently known about a foundational question. Are the right people promoted to be managers, team leaders, and supervisors? Gallup data and the famous Peter Principle both suggest that incompete nt bosses are likely to be all around us. This paper’s results uncover a different, and more nuanced, conclusion. By taking data on 35 nations, the paper provides the first statistically representative international estimates of the extent to which employees have ‘bad bosses’. Using a simple, and arguably natural, measure, the paper calculates that approximately 13% of Europe’s workers have a bad boss. These bosses are most common in the Transport sector and large organizations. The paper discusses its methodology, performs validation checks, and reviews other data and implications.
Keywords: bosses, leadership, job satisfaction, well-being.
JEL codes: J28, I31, M54
Abstract: Bosses play an important role in workplaces. Yet little is currently known about a foundational question. Are the right people promoted to be managers, team leaders, and supervisors? Gallup data and the famous Peter Principle both suggest that incompete nt bosses are likely to be all around us. This paper’s results uncover a different, and more nuanced, conclusion. By taking data on 35 nations, the paper provides the first statistically representative international estimates of the extent to which employees have ‘bad bosses’. Using a simple, and arguably natural, measure, the paper calculates that approximately 13% of Europe’s workers have a bad boss. These bosses are most common in the Transport sector and large organizations. The paper discusses its methodology, performs validation checks, and reviews other data and implications.
Keywords: bosses, leadership, job satisfaction, well-being.
JEL codes: J28, I31, M54
Intra‐cortical myelin mediates personality differences
Intra‐cortical myelin mediates personality differences. Nicola Toschi, Luca Passamonti. Journal of Personality, OCt 2018, https://doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12442
Abstract
Objective: Differences in myelination in the cortical mantle are important neurobiological mediators of variability in cognitive, emotional, and behavioral functioning. Past studies have found that personality traits reflecting such variability are linked to neuroanatomical and functional changes in prefrontal and temporo‐parietal cortices. Whether these effects are partially mediated by the differences in intra‐cortical myelin remains to be established.
Method: To test this hypothesis, we employed vertex‐wise intra‐cortical myelin maps in n = 1,003 people from the Human Connectome Project. Multivariate regression analyses were used to test for the relationship between intra‐cortical myelin and each of the five‐factor model’s personality traits, while accounting for age, sex, intelligence quotient, total intracranial volume, and the remaining personality traits.
Results: Neuroticism negatively related to frontal‐pole myelin and positively to occipital cortex myelin. Extraversion positively related to superior parietal myelin. Openness negatively related to anterior cingulate myelin, while Agreeableness positively related to orbitofrontal myelin. Conscientiousness positively related to frontal‐pole myelin and negatively to myelin content in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex.
Conclusions: Intra‐cortical myelin levels in brain regions with prolonged myelination are positively associated with personality traits linked to favorable outcome measures. These findings improve our understanding of the neurobiological underpinnings of variability in common behavioral dispositions.
Abstract
Objective: Differences in myelination in the cortical mantle are important neurobiological mediators of variability in cognitive, emotional, and behavioral functioning. Past studies have found that personality traits reflecting such variability are linked to neuroanatomical and functional changes in prefrontal and temporo‐parietal cortices. Whether these effects are partially mediated by the differences in intra‐cortical myelin remains to be established.
Method: To test this hypothesis, we employed vertex‐wise intra‐cortical myelin maps in n = 1,003 people from the Human Connectome Project. Multivariate regression analyses were used to test for the relationship between intra‐cortical myelin and each of the five‐factor model’s personality traits, while accounting for age, sex, intelligence quotient, total intracranial volume, and the remaining personality traits.
Results: Neuroticism negatively related to frontal‐pole myelin and positively to occipital cortex myelin. Extraversion positively related to superior parietal myelin. Openness negatively related to anterior cingulate myelin, while Agreeableness positively related to orbitofrontal myelin. Conscientiousness positively related to frontal‐pole myelin and negatively to myelin content in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex.
Conclusions: Intra‐cortical myelin levels in brain regions with prolonged myelination are positively associated with personality traits linked to favorable outcome measures. These findings improve our understanding of the neurobiological underpinnings of variability in common behavioral dispositions.
Perfectionism, negative motives for drinking, and alcohol-related problems: Perfectionism predicted alcohol problems, but not quantity of alcohol consumption
Perfectionism, negative motives for drinking, and alcohol-related problems: A 21-day diary study. Sean P. Mackinnon et al. Journal of Research in Personality, Volume 78, February 2019, Pages 177-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2018.12.003
Highlights
• This study examined the relationship between perfectionism and alcohol use and alcohol problems.
• Perfectionism variables correlated with avoidance-based drinking motives.
• Nondisplay of imperfection indirectly predicted alcohol-related problems.
• Perfectionism predicted alcohol problems, but not quantity of alcohol consumption.
Abstract: We explored links between two perfectionism facets and alcohol-related problems. We predicted perfectionistic cognitions and nondisplay of imperfection would indirectly predict alcohol problems through negative affect, coping motives, and conformity motives, but would be unrelated to quantity of alcohol consumption. Participants included 263 young adult drinkers collected from two sites using self-report surveys with a 21-day, once-per-day measurement. Participants were mostly Caucasian (78.3%), female (79.5%), and young (M = 21.37, SD = 1.89). Data were analyzed using multilevel structural equation modeling. Nondisplay of imperfection (but not perfectionistic cognitions) had a serial indirect effect on alcohol-related problems through negative affect, followed by conformity motives. Other findings varied across analyses (fixed vs. random) and analysis level (between vs. within). Open Data/Methods: https://osf.io/gduy4.
Highlights
• This study examined the relationship between perfectionism and alcohol use and alcohol problems.
• Perfectionism variables correlated with avoidance-based drinking motives.
• Nondisplay of imperfection indirectly predicted alcohol-related problems.
• Perfectionism predicted alcohol problems, but not quantity of alcohol consumption.
Abstract: We explored links between two perfectionism facets and alcohol-related problems. We predicted perfectionistic cognitions and nondisplay of imperfection would indirectly predict alcohol problems through negative affect, coping motives, and conformity motives, but would be unrelated to quantity of alcohol consumption. Participants included 263 young adult drinkers collected from two sites using self-report surveys with a 21-day, once-per-day measurement. Participants were mostly Caucasian (78.3%), female (79.5%), and young (M = 21.37, SD = 1.89). Data were analyzed using multilevel structural equation modeling. Nondisplay of imperfection (but not perfectionistic cognitions) had a serial indirect effect on alcohol-related problems through negative affect, followed by conformity motives. Other findings varied across analyses (fixed vs. random) and analysis level (between vs. within). Open Data/Methods: https://osf.io/gduy4.
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Bombay trains: Close to eight people die a day on the network; in the first 11 months of 2018, 650 passengers died falling from trains alone, & even more were killed crossing the tracks
‘You Have to Actually Cut Open Mumbai’s Belly’—Inside One of the World’s Most Audacious Transit Projects. Corinne Abrams. The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 6, 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/through-monsoons-around-slums-under-templesmumbai-builds-its-first-subway-11546803877
More than 8,000 workers keep construction going 24 hours a day to finish the line that will speed 1.6 million riders beneath one of the world’s most crowded cities
India's financial capital, Mumbai, has taken on its biggest-ever infrastructure project to build a subway in a city where more than seven million commuters cram onto its creaky suburban railways.
Excerpts:
MUMBAI—One of the most challenging projects in the world is being attempted beneath one of its most densely packed cities.
If it works, Mumbai will become the planet’s most crowded metropolis to build an underground subway.
More than 8,000 workers and a fleet of 360-foot-long boring machines are working 24 hours a day—even through monsoon rains—to finish the 27-station, 21-mile subway through some of the world’s most densely populated neighborhoods, around the edge of one of Asia’s biggest slums, below an airport and under temples and colonial buildings to end at a green edge of forest where leopards still roam.
The train is also cutting a path through the country’s religious traditions, legal system and every layer of its society, with challenges at each stop.
The Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Ltd.—a joint venture between the state and central government, which is building the subway—has had to negotiate with thousands of families and businesses to get them to move and has fought residents in courts over noise, land rights and even whether the subway will sully sacred ground.
Despite the difficulties, the subway, which was started in 2016, is now getting built at a pace of just over one mile a month. So far, 9 miles are complete. The $3.3 billion “Metro Line 3,” Mumbai’s first underground train, is on track to be finished and open by the end of 2021.
With a general election due by May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eager to demonstrate he is delivering even the most difficult infrastructure projects for the country’s 1.3 billion citizens.
Mr. Modi said in a speech last month that by 2024 the city would have 170 miles of metro lines under and above ground. The government is “making your lives better and easier” with its metro plans, Mr. Modi said in his speech.
A spokesperson at the prime minister’s office declined to comment on opposition to the metro.
More than seven million commuters a day cram onto the city’s existing creaky suburban railway network. Crowding is so extreme Indian authorities describe it as a “superdense crush load”—meaning trains are often carrying almost three times their capacity. Close to eight people die a day on the network, according to rail officials. In the first 11 months of 2018, 650 passengers died falling from trains alone, and even more were killed crossing the tracks, rail officials said.
The new train will be the first line to cut through the heart of the city, with air-conditioned carriages speeding around 80 feet underground, while carrying an estimated 1.6 million riders a day.
The unlikely driver of this stunning megaproject is a 48-year-old woman who grew up in a small town 200 miles outside Mumbai. Ashwini Bhide aced the notoriously difficult civil-service exam in 1995 and rose through the ranks of Indian civil service to become one of the few women at the top.
“You have to actually cut open Mumbai’s belly at so many locations and then start constructing,” said Ms. Bhide, managing director of the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation, the MMRC.
Wearing a deep blue kurti, a traditional Indian shirt—one local media group named her the city’s “Most Stylish Bureaucrat”—Ms. Bhide took calls from her desk phone and sent messages from her cellphone recently as she coordinated her mostly male team, who call her “Madam.”
Data is for January to November 2018. Source: Mumbai Railway Police
“There is a desperation,” said Ms. Bhide. “We really need to do it. It should have been done yesterday.”
Her office shelves are stacked with awards, a rock from the metro digging and a miniature model of a boring machine. Her walls are a patchwork of maps, plans and diagrams.
The city formerly known as Bombay has always been one of India’s most cosmopolitan and diverse. With a greater metro area population of 18.4 million, almost every religious, ethnic and caste community is represented somewhere along the peninsula. The city’s stock exchange BSE Ltd. shuts down to observe 12 religious holidays, including those observed by Hindus, Muslims and Christians.
India’s tiny Parsi community of 57,000 people—descendants of the Zoroastrian religious minority that came to India from Iran starting centuries ago—are a powerful group with property and temples across the city. At the center of each temple of the 3,500-year-old religion is a holy fire that has often been kept burning more than a century.
The new subway line is set to pass below two of the temples’ grounds. Only Parsis are allowed to enter the temples. Some worry the subway could interrupt prayers and desecrate holy ground, fearing that if nonmembers or menstruating women pass below while riding on it, the sanctity of the temple will be destroyed. Others are concerned tunneling and station work could damage the temples or drain wells on the temple sites.
“It is too close for comfort,” said Jamshed Sukhadwalla, a Parsi who has taken the subway builders to court. “There should not be interference above or below.”
More than 50 Parsis, including priests wearing traditional white robes and hats and women wearing headscarves, turned up at the Bombay High Court during a hearing in July. The lawyer for the MMRC warned the tunnel could collapse if boring stopped for too long.
After a six-month pause in tunneling near the temples, the court in November granted the MMRC permission to restart.
Mr. Sukhadwalla and fellow petitioners appealed in the Supreme Court in New Delhi. Last month, it ruled that work could go ahead as long as measures were taken to avoid damage to the temples.
“To rethink the alignment is virtually impossible,” said Uday Umesh Lalit, one of the judges.
Mr. Sukhadwalla, the Parsi opponent, said after the hearing, “You can give assurances, but if damage occurs” to the temples “it will be irreversible…I’m totally upset.”
The MMRC has faced around 65 court cases related to the construction of the metro, about half of them still open. Among the cases are petitions about land and property rights, noise, religious freedom and from people trying to protect trees along the length of the metro line.
To finish the line as fast as possible, 17 tunnel-boring machines—each almost as long as a football field—are simultaneously grinding through rock below the city.
To get the machines from the port and through Mumbai’s narrow roads, specialists had to divide the machines into parts and transport them on trailers. They cut off shop fronts to fit the machines down streets. The machines were reassembled underground.
Only the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka is more crowded than Mumbai, according to the United Nations. Dhaka is building an aboveground metro. Mumbai has an average of around 82,000 people per square mile, three times the population density of New York City.
Ms. Bhide isn’t moving the line away from packed neighborhoods; she’s steering straight at them.
“These areas, if they really need to be rejuvenated, they have to have metro connectivity,” she said. The city’s old lines will continue to exist above ground. In addition to the new underground subway, routes are also being constructed above ground.
South Mumbai’s streets are lined with poorly maintained buildings put up during colonial times. The MMRC surveyed thousands of structures before construction took place, reinforcing ones in danger of falling over.
[...]
Lawyer Robin Jaisinghani’s apartment peers into the station’s crater and he says the 24-hour construction was keeping his young daughters up at night. More than once he visited the construction site in the early hours of the morning to ask them to stop.
The MMRC put up a sound barrier, but sitting in his apartment, Mr. Jaisinghani said he could still hear the noise through the double-glazed German windows he had installed to block it out.
He represented himself in court, saying the noise violated his constitutional right to life and personal liberty, and got an order to stop construction between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. For more than a year, the station near his home was the only train construction site in Mumbai that halted at night.
Courts ruled in August that the building of this crucial infrastructure was more important than the inconvenience of residents. Construction is back to 24 hours a day.
At the other end of the line and the economic spectrum lies the final stop of the metro, Aarey Milk Colony, a rare expanse of green once known for its dairy business.
The stop, and a depot for trains, is being built over an area where families lived in simple brick homes, raising chickens and farming in the surrounding government lands.
Around 42% of Mumbai residents live in slums, according to 2011 census data, the most recent available, on land they don’t own and sometimes in teetering little towers. Relocating residents is a complex process.
Laxmi Ramji Gaikwad, in her 70s, lived on what was officially government land. The settlement was on land that flowed into a sprawling nature reserve, home to more than 20 leopards that occasionally attack locals. In 2017, a leopard attacked and killed a child.
When officials came to evict her to make way for the train, Ms. Gaikwad said she threatened to set herself on fire. She said security guards removed her possessions and destroyed her home. She finally agreed to relocate to a small apartment on the 12th floor of a government building.
Her legs have swelled from inactivity since moving, she says, and she feels dizzy when she looks out the window. She has always used wood fires and isn’t sure how to use a gas stove to make tea.
“I don’t know what benefit the metro will bring,” she said.
The MMRC has moved more than 2,800 families and businesses along the subway route. It says all moves are “legally done under supervision of relevant government authorities after alternative accommodation is provided.” It says it helps families adjust, teaching them how to pay bills and look after their new homes.
Ms. Bhide said she devours old books about how infrastructure was built during the colonial era. People died to build the railway lines Mumbaikars depend on today, she tells her team. No one has died building her subway line.
“People have taken a lot of pains, and a lot of lives were lost building the infrastructure we see today and we have been using for the past 150 years,” she said. “We have to have that patience.”
—-Debiprasad Nayak, Karan Deep Singh and Eric Bellman contributed to this article.
[links, graphs, charts, interesting data, full text, at the link above]
More than 8,000 workers keep construction going 24 hours a day to finish the line that will speed 1.6 million riders beneath one of the world’s most crowded cities
India's financial capital, Mumbai, has taken on its biggest-ever infrastructure project to build a subway in a city where more than seven million commuters cram onto its creaky suburban railways.
Excerpts:
MUMBAI—One of the most challenging projects in the world is being attempted beneath one of its most densely packed cities.
If it works, Mumbai will become the planet’s most crowded metropolis to build an underground subway.
More than 8,000 workers and a fleet of 360-foot-long boring machines are working 24 hours a day—even through monsoon rains—to finish the 27-station, 21-mile subway through some of the world’s most densely populated neighborhoods, around the edge of one of Asia’s biggest slums, below an airport and under temples and colonial buildings to end at a green edge of forest where leopards still roam.
The train is also cutting a path through the country’s religious traditions, legal system and every layer of its society, with challenges at each stop.
The Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Ltd.—a joint venture between the state and central government, which is building the subway—has had to negotiate with thousands of families and businesses to get them to move and has fought residents in courts over noise, land rights and even whether the subway will sully sacred ground.
Despite the difficulties, the subway, which was started in 2016, is now getting built at a pace of just over one mile a month. So far, 9 miles are complete. The $3.3 billion “Metro Line 3,” Mumbai’s first underground train, is on track to be finished and open by the end of 2021.
With a general election due by May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eager to demonstrate he is delivering even the most difficult infrastructure projects for the country’s 1.3 billion citizens.
Mr. Modi said in a speech last month that by 2024 the city would have 170 miles of metro lines under and above ground. The government is “making your lives better and easier” with its metro plans, Mr. Modi said in his speech.
A spokesperson at the prime minister’s office declined to comment on opposition to the metro.
More than seven million commuters a day cram onto the city’s existing creaky suburban railway network. Crowding is so extreme Indian authorities describe it as a “superdense crush load”—meaning trains are often carrying almost three times their capacity. Close to eight people die a day on the network, according to rail officials. In the first 11 months of 2018, 650 passengers died falling from trains alone, and even more were killed crossing the tracks, rail officials said.
The new train will be the first line to cut through the heart of the city, with air-conditioned carriages speeding around 80 feet underground, while carrying an estimated 1.6 million riders a day.
The unlikely driver of this stunning megaproject is a 48-year-old woman who grew up in a small town 200 miles outside Mumbai. Ashwini Bhide aced the notoriously difficult civil-service exam in 1995 and rose through the ranks of Indian civil service to become one of the few women at the top.
“You have to actually cut open Mumbai’s belly at so many locations and then start constructing,” said Ms. Bhide, managing director of the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation, the MMRC.
Wearing a deep blue kurti, a traditional Indian shirt—one local media group named her the city’s “Most Stylish Bureaucrat”—Ms. Bhide took calls from her desk phone and sent messages from her cellphone recently as she coordinated her mostly male team, who call her “Madam.”
Total deaths 2,734
Crossing tracks 1,476
Falling from trains 650
Natural death 491
Suicide 31
Electric shock 20
Struck by pole when leaning from a train 18
Others 48
Data is for January to November 2018. Source: Mumbai Railway Police
“There is a desperation,” said Ms. Bhide. “We really need to do it. It should have been done yesterday.”
Her office shelves are stacked with awards, a rock from the metro digging and a miniature model of a boring machine. Her walls are a patchwork of maps, plans and diagrams.
The city formerly known as Bombay has always been one of India’s most cosmopolitan and diverse. With a greater metro area population of 18.4 million, almost every religious, ethnic and caste community is represented somewhere along the peninsula. The city’s stock exchange BSE Ltd. shuts down to observe 12 religious holidays, including those observed by Hindus, Muslims and Christians.
India’s tiny Parsi community of 57,000 people—descendants of the Zoroastrian religious minority that came to India from Iran starting centuries ago—are a powerful group with property and temples across the city. At the center of each temple of the 3,500-year-old religion is a holy fire that has often been kept burning more than a century.
The new subway line is set to pass below two of the temples’ grounds. Only Parsis are allowed to enter the temples. Some worry the subway could interrupt prayers and desecrate holy ground, fearing that if nonmembers or menstruating women pass below while riding on it, the sanctity of the temple will be destroyed. Others are concerned tunneling and station work could damage the temples or drain wells on the temple sites.
“It is too close for comfort,” said Jamshed Sukhadwalla, a Parsi who has taken the subway builders to court. “There should not be interference above or below.”
More than 50 Parsis, including priests wearing traditional white robes and hats and women wearing headscarves, turned up at the Bombay High Court during a hearing in July. The lawyer for the MMRC warned the tunnel could collapse if boring stopped for too long.
After a six-month pause in tunneling near the temples, the court in November granted the MMRC permission to restart.
Mr. Sukhadwalla and fellow petitioners appealed in the Supreme Court in New Delhi. Last month, it ruled that work could go ahead as long as measures were taken to avoid damage to the temples.
“To rethink the alignment is virtually impossible,” said Uday Umesh Lalit, one of the judges.
Mr. Sukhadwalla, the Parsi opponent, said after the hearing, “You can give assurances, but if damage occurs” to the temples “it will be irreversible…I’m totally upset.”
The MMRC has faced around 65 court cases related to the construction of the metro, about half of them still open. Among the cases are petitions about land and property rights, noise, religious freedom and from people trying to protect trees along the length of the metro line.
To finish the line as fast as possible, 17 tunnel-boring machines—each almost as long as a football field—are simultaneously grinding through rock below the city.
To get the machines from the port and through Mumbai’s narrow roads, specialists had to divide the machines into parts and transport them on trailers. They cut off shop fronts to fit the machines down streets. The machines were reassembled underground.
Only the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka is more crowded than Mumbai, according to the United Nations. Dhaka is building an aboveground metro. Mumbai has an average of around 82,000 people per square mile, three times the population density of New York City.
Ms. Bhide isn’t moving the line away from packed neighborhoods; she’s steering straight at them.
“These areas, if they really need to be rejuvenated, they have to have metro connectivity,” she said. The city’s old lines will continue to exist above ground. In addition to the new underground subway, routes are also being constructed above ground.
South Mumbai’s streets are lined with poorly maintained buildings put up during colonial times. The MMRC surveyed thousands of structures before construction took place, reinforcing ones in danger of falling over.
[...]
Lawyer Robin Jaisinghani’s apartment peers into the station’s crater and he says the 24-hour construction was keeping his young daughters up at night. More than once he visited the construction site in the early hours of the morning to ask them to stop.
The MMRC put up a sound barrier, but sitting in his apartment, Mr. Jaisinghani said he could still hear the noise through the double-glazed German windows he had installed to block it out.
He represented himself in court, saying the noise violated his constitutional right to life and personal liberty, and got an order to stop construction between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. For more than a year, the station near his home was the only train construction site in Mumbai that halted at night.
Courts ruled in August that the building of this crucial infrastructure was more important than the inconvenience of residents. Construction is back to 24 hours a day.
At the other end of the line and the economic spectrum lies the final stop of the metro, Aarey Milk Colony, a rare expanse of green once known for its dairy business.
The stop, and a depot for trains, is being built over an area where families lived in simple brick homes, raising chickens and farming in the surrounding government lands.
Around 42% of Mumbai residents live in slums, according to 2011 census data, the most recent available, on land they don’t own and sometimes in teetering little towers. Relocating residents is a complex process.
Laxmi Ramji Gaikwad, in her 70s, lived on what was officially government land. The settlement was on land that flowed into a sprawling nature reserve, home to more than 20 leopards that occasionally attack locals. In 2017, a leopard attacked and killed a child.
When officials came to evict her to make way for the train, Ms. Gaikwad said she threatened to set herself on fire. She said security guards removed her possessions and destroyed her home. She finally agreed to relocate to a small apartment on the 12th floor of a government building.
Her legs have swelled from inactivity since moving, she says, and she feels dizzy when she looks out the window. She has always used wood fires and isn’t sure how to use a gas stove to make tea.
“I don’t know what benefit the metro will bring,” she said.
The MMRC has moved more than 2,800 families and businesses along the subway route. It says all moves are “legally done under supervision of relevant government authorities after alternative accommodation is provided.” It says it helps families adjust, teaching them how to pay bills and look after their new homes.
Ms. Bhide said she devours old books about how infrastructure was built during the colonial era. People died to build the railway lines Mumbaikars depend on today, she tells her team. No one has died building her subway line.
“People have taken a lot of pains, and a lot of lives were lost building the infrastructure we see today and we have been using for the past 150 years,” she said. “We have to have that patience.”
—-Debiprasad Nayak, Karan Deep Singh and Eric Bellman contributed to this article.
[links, graphs, charts, interesting data, full text, at the link above]
Having moral employees & leaders can come with many benefits; there can be offsetting costs associated with an internalized moral identity (reduced humor & subsequent likability in the workplace)
Yam, K. C., Barnes, C. M., Leavitt, K., Wei, W., Lau, J., & Uhlmann, E. L. (2019). Why so serious? A laboratory and field investigation of the link between morality and humor. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000171
Abstract: Previous research has identified many positive outcomes resulting from a deeply held moral identity, while overlooking potential negative social consequences for the moral individual. Drawing from Benign Violation Theory, we explore the tension between moral identity and humor, and the downstream workplace consequence of such tension. Consistent with our hypotheses, compared with participants in the control condition, participants whose moral identities were situationally activated (Study 1a) or chronically accessible (Study 1b) were less likely to appreciate humor and generate jokes others found funny (Study 2), especially humor that involved benign moral violations. We also found that participants with a strong moral identity do not generally compensate for their lack of humor by telling more jokes that do not involve moral violations (Study 3). Additional field studies demonstrated that employees (Study 4) and leaders (Study 5) with strong moral identities and who display ethical leadership are perceived as less humorous by their coworkers and subordinates, and to the extent that this is the case are less liked in the workplace. Study 5 further demonstrated two competing mediating pathways—leaders with strong moral identities are perceived as less humorous but also as more trustworthy, with differentiated effects on interpersonal liking. Although having moral employees and leaders can come with many benefits, our research shows that there can be offsetting costs associated with an internalized moral identity: reduced humor and subsequent likability in the workplace.
Abstract: Previous research has identified many positive outcomes resulting from a deeply held moral identity, while overlooking potential negative social consequences for the moral individual. Drawing from Benign Violation Theory, we explore the tension between moral identity and humor, and the downstream workplace consequence of such tension. Consistent with our hypotheses, compared with participants in the control condition, participants whose moral identities were situationally activated (Study 1a) or chronically accessible (Study 1b) were less likely to appreciate humor and generate jokes others found funny (Study 2), especially humor that involved benign moral violations. We also found that participants with a strong moral identity do not generally compensate for their lack of humor by telling more jokes that do not involve moral violations (Study 3). Additional field studies demonstrated that employees (Study 4) and leaders (Study 5) with strong moral identities and who display ethical leadership are perceived as less humorous by their coworkers and subordinates, and to the extent that this is the case are less liked in the workplace. Study 5 further demonstrated two competing mediating pathways—leaders with strong moral identities are perceived as less humorous but also as more trustworthy, with differentiated effects on interpersonal liking. Although having moral employees and leaders can come with many benefits, our research shows that there can be offsetting costs associated with an internalized moral identity: reduced humor and subsequent likability in the workplace.
Microscopic description of chaotic systems' synchronization: Gradual process of topological adjustment in phase space, in which the strange attractors of the two coupled systems continuously converge
Synchronization of chaotic systems: A microscopic description. Nir Lahav, Irene Sendina-Nadal, Chittaranjan Hens, Baruch Ksherim, Baruch Barzel, Reuven Cohen, and Stefano Boccaletti. Phys. Rev. E 98, 052204, https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.98.052204
Abstract: The synchronization of coupled chaotic systems represents a fundamental example of self organization and collective behavior. This well-studied phenomenon is classically characterized in terms of macroscopic parameters, such as Lyapunov exponents, that help predict the system's transitions into globally organized states. However, the local, microscopic, description of this emergent process continues to elude us. Here we show that at the microscopic level, synchronization is captured through a gradual process of topological adjustment in phase space, in which the strange attractors of the two coupled systems continuously converge, taking similar form, until complete topological synchronization ensues. We observe the local nucleation of topological synchronization in specific regions of the system's attractor, providing early signals of synchrony, that appear significantly before the onset of complete synchronization. This local synchronization initiates at the regions of the attractor characterized by lower expansion rates, in which the chaotic trajectories are least sensitive to slight changes in initial conditions. Our findings offer an alternative description of synchronization in chaotic systems, exposing its local embryonic stages that are overlooked by the currently established global analysis. Such local topological synchronization enables the identification of configurations where prediction of the state of one system is possible from measurements on that of the other, even in the absence of global synchronization.
Abstract: The synchronization of coupled chaotic systems represents a fundamental example of self organization and collective behavior. This well-studied phenomenon is classically characterized in terms of macroscopic parameters, such as Lyapunov exponents, that help predict the system's transitions into globally organized states. However, the local, microscopic, description of this emergent process continues to elude us. Here we show that at the microscopic level, synchronization is captured through a gradual process of topological adjustment in phase space, in which the strange attractors of the two coupled systems continuously converge, taking similar form, until complete topological synchronization ensues. We observe the local nucleation of topological synchronization in specific regions of the system's attractor, providing early signals of synchrony, that appear significantly before the onset of complete synchronization. This local synchronization initiates at the regions of the attractor characterized by lower expansion rates, in which the chaotic trajectories are least sensitive to slight changes in initial conditions. Our findings offer an alternative description of synchronization in chaotic systems, exposing its local embryonic stages that are overlooked by the currently established global analysis. Such local topological synchronization enables the identification of configurations where prediction of the state of one system is possible from measurements on that of the other, even in the absence of global synchronization.
Why would Parkinson’s disease lead to sudden changes in creativity, motivation, or style with visual art?: A review of case evidence and new, contextual, and genetic hypotheses
Why would Parkinson’s disease lead to sudden changes in creativity, motivation, or style with visual art?: A review of case evidence and new, contextual, and genetic hypotheses. Jon O. Lauring et al. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neubiorev.2018.12.016
Highlights
• Case evidence suggests PD may lead to interest, creativity, change in produced art.
• Occurs in both established artists and those without prior desire toward art making.
• We review case evidence and relate to current knowledge on PD symptoms/neurobiology.
• Propose hypothesis of selective damage + agonist overstimulation of mesolimbic areas.
• Also relate to context, personality, genetic differences offering window into artistic brain.
Abstract: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a devastating diagnosis with, however, potential for an extremely intriguing aesthetic component. Despite motor and cognitive deficits, an emerging collection of studies report a burst of visual artistic output and alterations in produced art in a subgroup of patients. This provides a unique window into the neurophysiological bases for why and how we might create and enjoy visual art, as well as into general brain function and the nature of PD or other neurodegenerative diseases. However, there has not been a comprehensive organization of literature on this topic. Nor has there been an attempt to connect case evidence and knowledge on PD with present understanding of visual art making in psychology and neuroaesthetics in order to propose hypotheses for documented artistic changes. Here, we collect the current research on this topic, tie this to PD symptoms and neurobiology, and provide new theories focusing on dopaminergic neuron damage, over-stimulation from dopamine agonist therapy, and context or genetic factors revealing the neurobiological basis of the visual artistic brain.
Highlights
• Case evidence suggests PD may lead to interest, creativity, change in produced art.
• Occurs in both established artists and those without prior desire toward art making.
• We review case evidence and relate to current knowledge on PD symptoms/neurobiology.
• Propose hypothesis of selective damage + agonist overstimulation of mesolimbic areas.
• Also relate to context, personality, genetic differences offering window into artistic brain.
Abstract: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a devastating diagnosis with, however, potential for an extremely intriguing aesthetic component. Despite motor and cognitive deficits, an emerging collection of studies report a burst of visual artistic output and alterations in produced art in a subgroup of patients. This provides a unique window into the neurophysiological bases for why and how we might create and enjoy visual art, as well as into general brain function and the nature of PD or other neurodegenerative diseases. However, there has not been a comprehensive organization of literature on this topic. Nor has there been an attempt to connect case evidence and knowledge on PD with present understanding of visual art making in psychology and neuroaesthetics in order to propose hypotheses for documented artistic changes. Here, we collect the current research on this topic, tie this to PD symptoms and neurobiology, and provide new theories focusing on dopaminergic neuron damage, over-stimulation from dopamine agonist therapy, and context or genetic factors revealing the neurobiological basis of the visual artistic brain.
Better to overestimate than to underestimate others’ feelings: Asymmetric cost of errors in affective perspective-taking
Better to overestimate than to underestimate others’ feelings: Asymmetric cost of errors in affective perspective-taking. Nadav Klein. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 151, March 2019, Pages 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.12.009
Highlights
• Errors in perspective taking are common but little is known about their consequences.
• Is it worse to overestimate or underestimate the intensity others' emotions?
• Seven experiments find that underestimating emotions is costlier than overestimating.
• This occurs because underestimation is thought to indicatelower effort and empathy.
• Stereotypical emotions and socially undesirable emotions moderate these results.
Abstract: Accurately assessing other people’s perspective in general, and other people’s emotional responses in particular, is essential for successful social interaction. However, substantial research finds that accurate perspective taking is the exception rather than the norm. Although errors in perspective taking are common, little is known about their consequences. Is it worse to overestimate or to underestimate other people’s emotional responses? Seven experiments find that underestimating the intensity of other people's emotional responses leads to more negative evaluations than overestimating others’ emotions (Experiments 1–5). These results replicate across emotional valence and across observers and targets and occur because people believe that underestimation is indicative of lower effort and empathy in trying to understand the target. Additional experiments identify moderators of these effects, including stereotypical emotions and socially undesirable emotions (Experiments 6–7). The cost of errors in affective perspective taking is asymmetric, leading to important implications for social coordination.
Highlights
• Errors in perspective taking are common but little is known about their consequences.
• Is it worse to overestimate or underestimate the intensity others' emotions?
• Seven experiments find that underestimating emotions is costlier than overestimating.
• This occurs because underestimation is thought to indicatelower effort and empathy.
• Stereotypical emotions and socially undesirable emotions moderate these results.
Abstract: Accurately assessing other people’s perspective in general, and other people’s emotional responses in particular, is essential for successful social interaction. However, substantial research finds that accurate perspective taking is the exception rather than the norm. Although errors in perspective taking are common, little is known about their consequences. Is it worse to overestimate or to underestimate other people’s emotional responses? Seven experiments find that underestimating the intensity of other people's emotional responses leads to more negative evaluations than overestimating others’ emotions (Experiments 1–5). These results replicate across emotional valence and across observers and targets and occur because people believe that underestimation is indicative of lower effort and empathy in trying to understand the target. Additional experiments identify moderators of these effects, including stereotypical emotions and socially undesirable emotions (Experiments 6–7). The cost of errors in affective perspective taking is asymmetric, leading to important implications for social coordination.
Found that vegetarian dietary patterns were associated with a higher incidence of morbid obesity culminating in bariatric surgery; refined and processed vegetarian food consumption should be discouraged
Which Is a Good Diet—Veg or Non-veg? Faith-Based Vegetarianism for Protection From Obesity—a Myth or Actuality? Sanjay Borude. Obesity Surgery, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11695-018-03658-7
Abstract
Introduction: India ranks first among nations with the largest population of vegetarians, and 40% of Asian Indians are vegetarian. There seems to occur a “nutrition transition” among vegetarians in India with a decline in the consumption of whole plant food content and replacement with processed foods, fried foods, and refined carbohydrates. This study evaluates the association between the consumption of a vegetarian diet and the prevalence of morbid obesity necessitating bariatric surgery in Asian Indians.
Material and Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study analyzing records of 235 Indian patients suffering from morbid obesity and who underwent bariatric surgery at our center through the years 2015 to 2017. Pearson’s chi-square test for independence of attributes was applied to analyze the difference between a number of vegetarians versus non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery.
Results: The difference in the number of vegetarians versus non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery was not significant for years 2015 and 2017, but the number was numerically higher for vegetarians. The difference was significantly higher for vegetarians in the year 2016. The difference in female vegetarians versus female non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery was not significant for the year 2017 but was significantly higher for vegetarians during the years 2015 and 2016. The difference in male vegetarians versus non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery was not significant for all the years.
Conclusion: In an Asian Indian cohort, we found that vegetarian dietary patterns were associated with a higher incidence of morbid obesity culminating in bariatric surgery. Our study is a myth breaker that all vegetarian diets are healthy diets. Our findings can be utilized to discourage refined and processed food consumption and promote healthy vegetarian food choices.
Keywords: Vegetarian Non-vegetarian Diet Bariatric surgery Morbid obesity Meat Vegan Asian Indian
Abstract
Introduction: India ranks first among nations with the largest population of vegetarians, and 40% of Asian Indians are vegetarian. There seems to occur a “nutrition transition” among vegetarians in India with a decline in the consumption of whole plant food content and replacement with processed foods, fried foods, and refined carbohydrates. This study evaluates the association between the consumption of a vegetarian diet and the prevalence of morbid obesity necessitating bariatric surgery in Asian Indians.
Material and Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study analyzing records of 235 Indian patients suffering from morbid obesity and who underwent bariatric surgery at our center through the years 2015 to 2017. Pearson’s chi-square test for independence of attributes was applied to analyze the difference between a number of vegetarians versus non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery.
Results: The difference in the number of vegetarians versus non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery was not significant for years 2015 and 2017, but the number was numerically higher for vegetarians. The difference was significantly higher for vegetarians in the year 2016. The difference in female vegetarians versus female non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery was not significant for the year 2017 but was significantly higher for vegetarians during the years 2015 and 2016. The difference in male vegetarians versus non-vegetarians undergoing bariatric surgery was not significant for all the years.
Conclusion: In an Asian Indian cohort, we found that vegetarian dietary patterns were associated with a higher incidence of morbid obesity culminating in bariatric surgery. Our study is a myth breaker that all vegetarian diets are healthy diets. Our findings can be utilized to discourage refined and processed food consumption and promote healthy vegetarian food choices.
Keywords: Vegetarian Non-vegetarian Diet Bariatric surgery Morbid obesity Meat Vegan Asian Indian
The Mona Lisa Illusion—Scientists See Her Looking at Them Though She Isn’t
The Mona Lisa Illusion—Scientists See Her Looking at Them Though She Isn’t. Gernot Horstmann, Sebastian Loth. i-Perception, https://doi.org/10.1177/2041669518821702
Abstract: If the person depicted in an image gazes at the camera or painter, a viewer perceives this as being gazed at. The viewers’ perception holds irrespectively of their position relative to image. This is the Mona Lisa effect named after the subject of Leonardo’s famous painting La Gioconda. The effect occurs reliably but was not tested with Mona Lisa herself. Remarkably, viewers judged Mona Lisa’s gaze as directed to their right-hand side irrespectively of the image zoom, its horizontal position on screen, and the distance of the ruler that was used for measuring the gaze direction.
Keywords: gaze direction, Mona Lisa effect, picture perception
Abstract: If the person depicted in an image gazes at the camera or painter, a viewer perceives this as being gazed at. The viewers’ perception holds irrespectively of their position relative to image. This is the Mona Lisa effect named after the subject of Leonardo’s famous painting La Gioconda. The effect occurs reliably but was not tested with Mona Lisa herself. Remarkably, viewers judged Mona Lisa’s gaze as directed to their right-hand side irrespectively of the image zoom, its horizontal position on screen, and the distance of the ruler that was used for measuring the gaze direction.
Keywords: gaze direction, Mona Lisa effect, picture perception
Monday, January 7, 2019
Author estimates the degree to which scientists are willing to change the direction of their work in exchange for resources
Myers, Kyle, The Elasticity of Science (August 22, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3176991
Abstract: This paper estimates the degree to which scientists are willing to change the direction of their work in exchange for resources. Novel data from the National Institutes of Health is used to estimate an entry model that accounts for strategic interactions. Inducing a scientist to change their direction by 1 standard deviation, a qualitatively small difference, requires a four-fold increase in funds, an extra $1 million per year. But at current levels, the costs and benefits of directed versus undirected research appear to be quite similar.
Keywords: economics of science
JEL Classification: H50, I23, O31, O33, O38
---
How Do We Redirect Scientific Investigation? Chuck Dinerstein. ACSH, Jan 2 2019. https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/01/02/how-do-we-redirect-scientific-investigation-13698
The economic term for haggling over the size of the carrot is elasticity. Using NIH grant data from 2002 to 2009 and the similarity of applicants’ prior work to the objectives of each RFA grant a recent paper looks at the scientists’ bargain. The measure of similarity was based upon how much of scientists prior published abstracts used terminology found in the individual RFA application research objectives – the underlying assumption was the use of the same scientific language was a useful marker for the underlying science to be similar.
It is no surprise that scientists apply to highly “similar” projects, especially when they are more readily available, because of less competition, and come with good funding. So what tradeoffs do scientists make changing course and applying for less similar projects?
* The more aligned a scientist’s and RFA research interest, the less weight is put on the amount of the total award. But as the similarity becomes less, the amount of the grant rises. A "30% less" similar field would be where a researcher was studying a vaccine for a particular virus using a specific research animal and was asked instead to investigate a vaccine for a different virus but still using the same research animal and approach. By the author’s calculation scientists require an additional $1 million/annually to change course.
* Competition for grants is another consideration, and the author found that scientists traded an increased award size of about $80,000 for one more competitor for funding.
Put into other words, scientists are willing to be redirected, but it comes at a cost, an award about 65% greater than what they might have gotten for staying the course. That premium helps cover the adjustments necessary for tangibles, like equipment and the intangible, research preferences.
* RFA grants result in a 16 - 24% increase in publications. But that direction is short-lived with many researchers returning to their “primary interests” once the research award ends.
* When looking at the output of both the winners and “losers” of the RFA awards, there seems to be no difference in quantity or quality, as measured by the publishing journal’s “impact.” In the words of the author, RFA’s “create more not better science.”
What can we conclude? Not surprisingly, applicants choose the path they believe will be most likely to be funded. To get more externally directed research, to move science in the direction of “our choosing,” we must pay for a larger carrot and “…it is likely that much larger, sustained levels of investments would be necessary to generate meaningful long-run changes.” As with all things, when we look at the devil in the details, we find human behavior is often more than “if you build it, they will come.”
Abstract: This paper estimates the degree to which scientists are willing to change the direction of their work in exchange for resources. Novel data from the National Institutes of Health is used to estimate an entry model that accounts for strategic interactions. Inducing a scientist to change their direction by 1 standard deviation, a qualitatively small difference, requires a four-fold increase in funds, an extra $1 million per year. But at current levels, the costs and benefits of directed versus undirected research appear to be quite similar.
Keywords: economics of science
JEL Classification: H50, I23, O31, O33, O38
---
How Do We Redirect Scientific Investigation? Chuck Dinerstein. ACSH, Jan 2 2019. https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/01/02/how-do-we-redirect-scientific-investigation-13698
The economic term for haggling over the size of the carrot is elasticity. Using NIH grant data from 2002 to 2009 and the similarity of applicants’ prior work to the objectives of each RFA grant a recent paper looks at the scientists’ bargain. The measure of similarity was based upon how much of scientists prior published abstracts used terminology found in the individual RFA application research objectives – the underlying assumption was the use of the same scientific language was a useful marker for the underlying science to be similar.
It is no surprise that scientists apply to highly “similar” projects, especially when they are more readily available, because of less competition, and come with good funding. So what tradeoffs do scientists make changing course and applying for less similar projects?
* The more aligned a scientist’s and RFA research interest, the less weight is put on the amount of the total award. But as the similarity becomes less, the amount of the grant rises. A "30% less" similar field would be where a researcher was studying a vaccine for a particular virus using a specific research animal and was asked instead to investigate a vaccine for a different virus but still using the same research animal and approach. By the author’s calculation scientists require an additional $1 million/annually to change course.
* Competition for grants is another consideration, and the author found that scientists traded an increased award size of about $80,000 for one more competitor for funding.
Put into other words, scientists are willing to be redirected, but it comes at a cost, an award about 65% greater than what they might have gotten for staying the course. That premium helps cover the adjustments necessary for tangibles, like equipment and the intangible, research preferences.
* RFA grants result in a 16 - 24% increase in publications. But that direction is short-lived with many researchers returning to their “primary interests” once the research award ends.
* When looking at the output of both the winners and “losers” of the RFA awards, there seems to be no difference in quantity or quality, as measured by the publishing journal’s “impact.” In the words of the author, RFA’s “create more not better science.”
What can we conclude? Not surprisingly, applicants choose the path they believe will be most likely to be funded. To get more externally directed research, to move science in the direction of “our choosing,” we must pay for a larger carrot and “…it is likely that much larger, sustained levels of investments would be necessary to generate meaningful long-run changes.” As with all things, when we look at the devil in the details, we find human behavior is often more than “if you build it, they will come.”
The self–other knowledge asymmetry in cognitive intelligence, emotional intelligence, and creativity
The self–other knowledge asymmetry in cognitive intelligence, emotional intelligence, and creativity. Aljoscha C. Neubauer et al. Heliyon, Volume 4, Issue 12, December 2018, e01061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e01061
Abstract: The self–other knowledge asymmetry model (SOKA) assumes that some personality traits might be open to oneself and other persons (‘open area’), while other traits are more accurately perceived by others (‘blind spot’); a third group of traits might be visible only to oneself and not to others (‘hidden area’), and finally a trait might neither be visible to oneself nor to one's peers (‘unknown area’). So far, this model has been tested only for personality traits and general intelligence, not for more specific abilities; to do so was the novel intention of our study. We tested which of six abilities (verbal, numerical, and spatial intelligence; interpersonal and intrapersonal competence; and creative potential/divergent thinking ability) are in which SOKA area. We administered performance tests for the six abilities in two samples – 233 14-year-olds and 215 18-year-olds – and collected self- and peer-ratings for each domain. Numerical intelligence and creativity were judged validly both from self- and peer-perspectives (‘open area’). In the younger sample verbal intelligence was validly estimated only by peers (‘blind spot’), whereas the older group showed some insight into their own abilities as well (‘blind spot’ to ‘open area’). While in the younger group only the pupils themselves could validly estimate their intra- and interpersonal competence (‘hidden area’), in the older group peers were also successful in estimating other's interpersonal competence, albeit only with low accuracy (‘hidden area’ to ‘open area’). For 18-year-olds, spatial ability was in the hidden area too, but in 14-year-olds this could neither be validly estimated by pupils themselves nor by peers (‘unknown area’). These results implicate the possibility of non-optimal career choices of young people, and could, therefore, be helpful in guiding professional career counselling.
Abstract: The self–other knowledge asymmetry model (SOKA) assumes that some personality traits might be open to oneself and other persons (‘open area’), while other traits are more accurately perceived by others (‘blind spot’); a third group of traits might be visible only to oneself and not to others (‘hidden area’), and finally a trait might neither be visible to oneself nor to one's peers (‘unknown area’). So far, this model has been tested only for personality traits and general intelligence, not for more specific abilities; to do so was the novel intention of our study. We tested which of six abilities (verbal, numerical, and spatial intelligence; interpersonal and intrapersonal competence; and creative potential/divergent thinking ability) are in which SOKA area. We administered performance tests for the six abilities in two samples – 233 14-year-olds and 215 18-year-olds – and collected self- and peer-ratings for each domain. Numerical intelligence and creativity were judged validly both from self- and peer-perspectives (‘open area’). In the younger sample verbal intelligence was validly estimated only by peers (‘blind spot’), whereas the older group showed some insight into their own abilities as well (‘blind spot’ to ‘open area’). While in the younger group only the pupils themselves could validly estimate their intra- and interpersonal competence (‘hidden area’), in the older group peers were also successful in estimating other's interpersonal competence, albeit only with low accuracy (‘hidden area’ to ‘open area’). For 18-year-olds, spatial ability was in the hidden area too, but in 14-year-olds this could neither be validly estimated by pupils themselves nor by peers (‘unknown area’). These results implicate the possibility of non-optimal career choices of young people, and could, therefore, be helpful in guiding professional career counselling.
Few psychological or physiological processes are universally beneficial; most positive phenomena reach inflection points where their effects turn negative; mindfulness is unlikely to be an exception
Can Mindfulness Be Too Much of a Good Thing? The Value of a Middle Way. Willoughby B Britton. Current Opinion in Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2018.12.011
Highlights
• Few psychological or physiological processes are universally beneficial.
• Most positive phenomena reach inflection points where their effects turn negative.
• Mindfulness is unlikely to be an exception to the inverted U-shape curved principle.
• Some mindfulness-related processes have negative effects under certain conditions.
• Research that includes the full range of possible effects would improve the efficacy of mindfulness.
Abstract: Previous research has found that very few, if any, psychological or physiological processes are universally beneficial. Instead, positive phenomena tend to follow a non-monotonic or inverted U-shaped trajectory where their typically positive effects eventually turn negative. This review investigates mindfulness-related processes for signs of non-monotonicity. A number of mindfulness-related processes—including, mindful attention (observing awareness, interoception), mindfulness qualities, mindful emotion regulation (prefrontal control, decentering, exposure, acceptance), and meditation practice—show signs of non-monotonicity, boundary conditions, or negative effects under certain conditions. A research agenda that investigates the possibility of mindfulness as non-monotonic may be able to provide an explanatory framework for the mix of positive, null and negative effects that could maximize the efficacy of mindfulness-based interventions.
Highlights
• Few psychological or physiological processes are universally beneficial.
• Most positive phenomena reach inflection points where their effects turn negative.
• Mindfulness is unlikely to be an exception to the inverted U-shape curved principle.
• Some mindfulness-related processes have negative effects under certain conditions.
• Research that includes the full range of possible effects would improve the efficacy of mindfulness.
Abstract: Previous research has found that very few, if any, psychological or physiological processes are universally beneficial. Instead, positive phenomena tend to follow a non-monotonic or inverted U-shaped trajectory where their typically positive effects eventually turn negative. This review investigates mindfulness-related processes for signs of non-monotonicity. A number of mindfulness-related processes—including, mindful attention (observing awareness, interoception), mindfulness qualities, mindful emotion regulation (prefrontal control, decentering, exposure, acceptance), and meditation practice—show signs of non-monotonicity, boundary conditions, or negative effects under certain conditions. A research agenda that investigates the possibility of mindfulness as non-monotonic may be able to provide an explanatory framework for the mix of positive, null and negative effects that could maximize the efficacy of mindfulness-based interventions.
Between 1950 & 1959, the highest earning 1 percent of Americans paid an effective tax rate of 42 percent. By 2014, it was only down to 36.4 percent
Did the Rich Really Pay Much Higher Taxes in the 1950s? The Answer Is a Little Complicated. Jordan Weissmann. Slate, Aug 07, 2017. https://slate.com/business/2017/08/the-history-of-tax-rates-for-the-rich.html
American progressives like to remember the mid–20th century as a time when the only thing higher than a Cadillac’s tail fin was the top marginal tax rate (which, during the Eisenhower years peaked above 90 percent for the very rich). Uncle Sam took 90 cents on the dollar off the highest incomes, and—as any good Bernie Sanders devotee will remind you—the economy thrived.
Conservatives, however, often try to push back on this version of history, pointing out that those staggeringly high tax rates existed mostly on paper; relatively few Americans actually paid them. Recently, the Tax Foundation’s Scott Greenberg went so far as to argue that “taxes on the rich were not that much higher” in the 1950s than today. Between 1950 and 1959, he notes, the highest earning 1 percent of Americans paid an effective tax rate of 42 percent. By 2014, it was only down to 36.4 percent—a substantial but by no means astronomical decline.
[https://compote.slate.com/images/c26acb08-3169-4978-80ce-0186380d5b00.png]
Greenberg is not pulling his numbers out of thin air. Rather, he’s drawing them directly from a recent paper by Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman in which the three economists—all well-loved by progressives—estimate the average tax rates Americans at different income levels have actually paid over time. Their historical measure includes federal, state, and local levies—including corporate, property, income, estate, sales, and payroll taxes. And lest you think Greenberg is misrepresenting anything, here’s Piketty & co.’s own graph (rates on rich folks are shown in green).
[https://compote.slate.com/images/fe0a06f5-a089-4f6a-97c7-65238fc05a97.png Source: Piketty, Saez, and Zucman]
There are a few obvious reasons why the taxes the rich actually paid in the 1950s were so much lower than the confiscatory top rates that sat on the books. For one, the max tax rates on investment income were far lower than on wages and salaries, which gave a lot of wealthy individuals some relief. Tax avoidance may have also been a big problem. Moreover, there simply weren’t that many extraordinarily rich households. Those fabled 90 percent tax rates only bit at incomes over $200,000, the equivalent of more than $2 million in today’s dollars. As Greenberg notes, the tax may have only applied to 10,000 families.
To Greenberg, the takeaway from this is simple: Progressives should stop fixating on the tax rates from 60 years ago. “All in all, the idea that high-income Americans in the 1950s paid much more of their income in taxes should be abandoned. The top 1 percent of Americans today do not face an unusually low tax burden, by historical standards.”
I’m not convinced. Effective tax rates on 1 percenters may not have fallen by half, as some on the left might be tempted to imagine. But they are down by about 6 percentage points1 at a time when the wealthy earn a vastly larger share of the national income. That drop represents a lot of money. Moreover, as Greenberg admits, tax rates on top 0.1 percent have fallen by about one-fifth since their 1950s heights. That rather severely undercuts the idea that taxes on the wealthy haven’t fallen “much.”
Moreover, there may be reasons to support higher taxes beyond their ability to raise revenue. One popular theory among left-leaning intellectuals right now—advanced by Piketty, Saez, and their protegée Stefanie Stantcheva—is that high tax rates actually ease income inequality by discouraging CEOs and professionals from demanding exorbitantly high pay for their services.* In other words, thanks to high tax rates, people didn’t bother trying to get as rich. After all, there’s no point in bargaining for a giant bonus if the government is going to clip off most of it. I wouldn’t say the theory has been accepted as a consensus fact at this point, but it’s certainly alive and being taken seriously.
So the real tax rates rich Americans paid in the 1950s may not have been so stratospherically high as some progressives assume. But they also may have helped create a more egalitarian society. That seems worth considering.
[Full text and links in the article above]
American progressives like to remember the mid–20th century as a time when the only thing higher than a Cadillac’s tail fin was the top marginal tax rate (which, during the Eisenhower years peaked above 90 percent for the very rich). Uncle Sam took 90 cents on the dollar off the highest incomes, and—as any good Bernie Sanders devotee will remind you—the economy thrived.
Conservatives, however, often try to push back on this version of history, pointing out that those staggeringly high tax rates existed mostly on paper; relatively few Americans actually paid them. Recently, the Tax Foundation’s Scott Greenberg went so far as to argue that “taxes on the rich were not that much higher” in the 1950s than today. Between 1950 and 1959, he notes, the highest earning 1 percent of Americans paid an effective tax rate of 42 percent. By 2014, it was only down to 36.4 percent—a substantial but by no means astronomical decline.
[https://compote.slate.com/images/c26acb08-3169-4978-80ce-0186380d5b00.png]
Greenberg is not pulling his numbers out of thin air. Rather, he’s drawing them directly from a recent paper by Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman in which the three economists—all well-loved by progressives—estimate the average tax rates Americans at different income levels have actually paid over time. Their historical measure includes federal, state, and local levies—including corporate, property, income, estate, sales, and payroll taxes. And lest you think Greenberg is misrepresenting anything, here’s Piketty & co.’s own graph (rates on rich folks are shown in green).
[https://compote.slate.com/images/fe0a06f5-a089-4f6a-97c7-65238fc05a97.png Source: Piketty, Saez, and Zucman]
There are a few obvious reasons why the taxes the rich actually paid in the 1950s were so much lower than the confiscatory top rates that sat on the books. For one, the max tax rates on investment income were far lower than on wages and salaries, which gave a lot of wealthy individuals some relief. Tax avoidance may have also been a big problem. Moreover, there simply weren’t that many extraordinarily rich households. Those fabled 90 percent tax rates only bit at incomes over $200,000, the equivalent of more than $2 million in today’s dollars. As Greenberg notes, the tax may have only applied to 10,000 families.
To Greenberg, the takeaway from this is simple: Progressives should stop fixating on the tax rates from 60 years ago. “All in all, the idea that high-income Americans in the 1950s paid much more of their income in taxes should be abandoned. The top 1 percent of Americans today do not face an unusually low tax burden, by historical standards.”
I’m not convinced. Effective tax rates on 1 percenters may not have fallen by half, as some on the left might be tempted to imagine. But they are down by about 6 percentage points1 at a time when the wealthy earn a vastly larger share of the national income. That drop represents a lot of money. Moreover, as Greenberg admits, tax rates on top 0.1 percent have fallen by about one-fifth since their 1950s heights. That rather severely undercuts the idea that taxes on the wealthy haven’t fallen “much.”
Moreover, there may be reasons to support higher taxes beyond their ability to raise revenue. One popular theory among left-leaning intellectuals right now—advanced by Piketty, Saez, and their protegée Stefanie Stantcheva—is that high tax rates actually ease income inequality by discouraging CEOs and professionals from demanding exorbitantly high pay for their services.* In other words, thanks to high tax rates, people didn’t bother trying to get as rich. After all, there’s no point in bargaining for a giant bonus if the government is going to clip off most of it. I wouldn’t say the theory has been accepted as a consensus fact at this point, but it’s certainly alive and being taken seriously.
So the real tax rates rich Americans paid in the 1950s may not have been so stratospherically high as some progressives assume. But they also may have helped create a more egalitarian society. That seems worth considering.
[Full text and links in the article above]
There may be a variety of reasons why more democratic states are engaged in higher levels of international trade; a larger concern for consumer interests, however, is likely not among them
The Absence of Consumer Interests in Trade Policy. Timm Betz and Amy Pond. The Journal of Politics, https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/701493
Abstract: Why are some countries more open to trade than others? Prominent explanations emphasize differences in the influence of voters as consumers. Consumers benefit from lower prices. Because governments in democracies are more responsive to voters, they should implement lower tariffs. We develop and evaluate an implication of this line of argument. If lower tariffs are a response to consumer interests, lower tariffs should be concentrated on products most relevant to consumers. Using data on consumption shares across product categories, we report evidence that consumer interests do not account for lower tariffs. Governments place higher tariffs on goods with higher consumption shares, and we find no evidence that this relationship attenuates under more democratic institutions. There may be a variety of reasons why more democratic states are engaged in higher levels of international trade. A larger concern for consumer interests, however, is likely not among them.
Keywords: trade, consumers, democracy, tariffs, contract enforcement
Abstract: Why are some countries more open to trade than others? Prominent explanations emphasize differences in the influence of voters as consumers. Consumers benefit from lower prices. Because governments in democracies are more responsive to voters, they should implement lower tariffs. We develop and evaluate an implication of this line of argument. If lower tariffs are a response to consumer interests, lower tariffs should be concentrated on products most relevant to consumers. Using data on consumption shares across product categories, we report evidence that consumer interests do not account for lower tariffs. Governments place higher tariffs on goods with higher consumption shares, and we find no evidence that this relationship attenuates under more democratic institutions. There may be a variety of reasons why more democratic states are engaged in higher levels of international trade. A larger concern for consumer interests, however, is likely not among them.
Keywords: trade, consumers, democracy, tariffs, contract enforcement
Human foetuses and newborns smile first during sleep, before they smile while awake and interacting with caregivers; adults may have true smiling and laughing, a true inner mirth, during sleep
Smiling asleep: A study of happy emotional expressions during adult sleep. Marion Clé et al. Journal of Sleep Research, https://doi.org/10.1111/jsr.12814
Abstract: Human foetuses and newborns smile first during sleep, before they smile while awake and interacting with caregivers. Whether smiling persists during adult sleep, and expresses inner joy, is yet unknown. Smiles were looked for during night‐time video‐polysomnography combined with electromyography of the zygomatic and orbicularis oculi muscles in 100 controls, 22 patients with sleepwalking and 52 patients with rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behaviour disorder. Autonomous reactions (heart rate and level of vasoconstriction) and the presence of rapid eye movements were examined during smiles and laughs. On visual examination of the face video clips synchronous with zygomatic contraction, 8% of controls smiled while asleep (7% in REM sleep and 1% in non‐REM sleep). Some patients with sleepwalking also smiled and laughed during N2 sleep and N3 parasomnia. Half of the patients with REM sleep behaviour disorder smiled and one‐third laughed, mostly during REM sleep. The 173 happy faces included mild smiles (24.8%), open‐mouth smiles (29.5%) and laughs (45.7%). More than half of the smiles were the Duchenne (genuine) type, including an active closure of the eyelids. Approximately half of the smiles and laughs were temporally associated with rapid eye movements. There was no increased heart rate variability during smiles and laughs. Two scenic behaviours including smiles and laughs suggested that the happy facial expression was associated with a happy dreaming scenario. Smiling and laughing occasionally persist during adult sleep. There are several lines of evidence suggesting that these happy emotional expressions reflect a true inner mirth.
Abstract: Human foetuses and newborns smile first during sleep, before they smile while awake and interacting with caregivers. Whether smiling persists during adult sleep, and expresses inner joy, is yet unknown. Smiles were looked for during night‐time video‐polysomnography combined with electromyography of the zygomatic and orbicularis oculi muscles in 100 controls, 22 patients with sleepwalking and 52 patients with rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behaviour disorder. Autonomous reactions (heart rate and level of vasoconstriction) and the presence of rapid eye movements were examined during smiles and laughs. On visual examination of the face video clips synchronous with zygomatic contraction, 8% of controls smiled while asleep (7% in REM sleep and 1% in non‐REM sleep). Some patients with sleepwalking also smiled and laughed during N2 sleep and N3 parasomnia. Half of the patients with REM sleep behaviour disorder smiled and one‐third laughed, mostly during REM sleep. The 173 happy faces included mild smiles (24.8%), open‐mouth smiles (29.5%) and laughs (45.7%). More than half of the smiles were the Duchenne (genuine) type, including an active closure of the eyelids. Approximately half of the smiles and laughs were temporally associated with rapid eye movements. There was no increased heart rate variability during smiles and laughs. Two scenic behaviours including smiles and laughs suggested that the happy facial expression was associated with a happy dreaming scenario. Smiling and laughing occasionally persist during adult sleep. There are several lines of evidence suggesting that these happy emotional expressions reflect a true inner mirth.
Greed: A majority of participants reported an excessive desire for money or materials (clothes, books, &c, 68%); also non-material items (time, love, &c, 32pct)
Understanding greed as a unified construct. Glenn W. Lambie, Jaimie Stickl Haugen. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 141, 15 April 2019, Pages 31-39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.12.011
Abstract: The concept of greed is a popular topic since the economic crisis of 2008. Much of the psychological research relating to greed aligns greed as a situation-specific trait as opposed to a dispositional trait. Thus, there is a need to enhance our understanding of greed as a disposition and explore individual differences that may influence behavior. Since individuals conceptualize greed in various ways, there is a lack in understanding of the construct. We propose a unified definition of greed and outline the extant research on dispositional greed, focusing on existing greed assessments. Considering our working definition of greed, we advocate that there is a need for future research to enhance definitional clarity, including the development of an additional greed assessment that more accurately encapsulates this complex construct.
Abstract: The concept of greed is a popular topic since the economic crisis of 2008. Much of the psychological research relating to greed aligns greed as a situation-specific trait as opposed to a dispositional trait. Thus, there is a need to enhance our understanding of greed as a disposition and explore individual differences that may influence behavior. Since individuals conceptualize greed in various ways, there is a lack in understanding of the construct. We propose a unified definition of greed and outline the extant research on dispositional greed, focusing on existing greed assessments. Considering our working definition of greed, we advocate that there is a need for future research to enhance definitional clarity, including the development of an additional greed assessment that more accurately encapsulates this complex construct.
Increased fruit & vegetable consumption can enhance mental well-being; both increasing frequency & increasing quantity matter; a hump-shaped relationship appeared between age & fruit & vegetable consumption
Lettuce be happy: A longitudinal UK study on the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and well-being. Neel Ocean, Peter Howley, Jonathan Ensor. Social Science & Medicine, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.12.017
Highlights
• Increased fruit & vegetable consumption can enhance mental well-being.
• Increasing frequency and increasing quantity of consumption both matter.
• The relationship is robust to different measures of well-being.
• A hump-shaped relationship appeared between age and fruit and vegetable consumption.
Abstract
Rationale: While the role of diet in influencing physical health is now well-established, some recent research suggests that increased consumption of fruits and vegetables could play a role in enhancing mental well-being. A limitation with much of this existing research is its reliance on cross-sectional correlations, convenience samples, and/or lack of adequate controls.
Objective: We aim to add to the emerging literature on the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and well-being by using longitudinal data from a study in the United Kingdom (UK).
Method: We employ panel data analytical techniques on three waves collected between 2010 and 2017 (i.e., following the same individuals over time) in the UK Household Longitudinal Survey. We also control for time-variant confounders such as diet, health, and lifestyle behaviours.
Results: Fixed effects regressions show that mental well-being (GHQ-12) responds in a dose-response fashion to increases in both the quantity and the frequency of fruit and vegetables consumed. This relationship is robust to the use of subjective well-being (life satisfaction) instead of mental well-being. We also document a hump-shaped relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and age.
Conclusion: Our findings provide further evidence that persuading people to consume more fruits and vegetables may not only benefit their physical health in the long-run, but also their mental well-being in the short-run.
Highlights
• Increased fruit & vegetable consumption can enhance mental well-being.
• Increasing frequency and increasing quantity of consumption both matter.
• The relationship is robust to different measures of well-being.
• A hump-shaped relationship appeared between age and fruit and vegetable consumption.
Abstract
Rationale: While the role of diet in influencing physical health is now well-established, some recent research suggests that increased consumption of fruits and vegetables could play a role in enhancing mental well-being. A limitation with much of this existing research is its reliance on cross-sectional correlations, convenience samples, and/or lack of adequate controls.
Objective: We aim to add to the emerging literature on the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and well-being by using longitudinal data from a study in the United Kingdom (UK).
Method: We employ panel data analytical techniques on three waves collected between 2010 and 2017 (i.e., following the same individuals over time) in the UK Household Longitudinal Survey. We also control for time-variant confounders such as diet, health, and lifestyle behaviours.
Results: Fixed effects regressions show that mental well-being (GHQ-12) responds in a dose-response fashion to increases in both the quantity and the frequency of fruit and vegetables consumed. This relationship is robust to the use of subjective well-being (life satisfaction) instead of mental well-being. We also document a hump-shaped relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and age.
Conclusion: Our findings provide further evidence that persuading people to consume more fruits and vegetables may not only benefit their physical health in the long-run, but also their mental well-being in the short-run.
Sunday, January 6, 2019
The increase in homebuilding construction concentration in the past decade has led to lower production volume, fewer units in the production pipeline, & greater unit price volatility
Cosman, Jacob and Quintero, Luis, Market Concentration in Homebuilding (November 28, 2018). Johns Hopkins Carey Business School Research Paper No. 18-18. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3303984
Abstract: We investigate the impact of increasing concentration in local residential construction markets on housing production. We show that the increase in concentration in the past decade has led to lower production volume, fewer units in the production pipeline, and greater unit price volatility. Our results imply that the greater concentration has decreased the annual value of new housing production by $106 billion. Because housing is a determinant of the business cycle these findings provide further evidence that the secular decline in competitive intensity in the American economy is altering macroeconomic dynamics.
Abstract: We investigate the impact of increasing concentration in local residential construction markets on housing production. We show that the increase in concentration in the past decade has led to lower production volume, fewer units in the production pipeline, and greater unit price volatility. Our results imply that the greater concentration has decreased the annual value of new housing production by $106 billion. Because housing is a determinant of the business cycle these findings provide further evidence that the secular decline in competitive intensity in the American economy is altering macroeconomic dynamics.
25% of the prosopagnosia sample scored in the tone deaf range; these subjects were impaired in pitch processing, but not rhythm; face recognition ability significantly predicted pitch processing ability
Perception Of Musical Pitch In Developmental Prosopagnosia. Sherryse
L.Corrow et al. Neuropsychologia,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2018.12.022
Highlights
• Some prosopagnosic subjects showed deficits in pitch processing relative to controls
• Individually, 25% of the prosopagnosia sample scored in the tone deaf range
• These subjects were impaired in pitch processing, but not rhythm
• Face recognition ability significantly predicted pitch processing ability
Abstract
Studies of developmental prosopagnosia have often shown that developmental prosopagnosia differentially affects human face processing over non-face object processing. However, little consideration has been given to whether this condition is associated with perceptual or sensorimotor impairments in other modalities. Comorbidities have played a role in theories of other developmental disorders such as dyslexia, but studies of developmental prosopagnosia have often focused on the nature of the visual recognition impairment despite evidence for widespread neural anomalies that might affect other sensorimotor systems.
We studied 12 subjects with developmental prosopagnosia with a battery of auditory tests evaluating pitch and rhythm processing as well as voice perception and recognition. Overall, three subjects were impaired in fine pitch discrimination, a prevalence of 25% that is higher than the estimated 4% prevalence of congenital amusia in the general population. This was a selective deficit, as rhythm perception was unaffected in all 12 subjects. Furthermore, two of the three prosopagnosic subjects who were impaired in pitch discrimination had intact voice perception and recognition, while two of the remaining nine subjects had impaired voice recognition but intact pitch perception.
These results indicate that, in some subjects with developmental prosopagnosia, the face recognition deficit is not an isolated impairment but is associated with deficits in other domains, such as auditory perception. These deficits may form part of a broader syndrome which could be due to distributed microstructural anomalies in various brain networks, possibly with a common theme of right hemispheric predominance.
Highlights
• Some prosopagnosic subjects showed deficits in pitch processing relative to controls
• Individually, 25% of the prosopagnosia sample scored in the tone deaf range
• These subjects were impaired in pitch processing, but not rhythm
• Face recognition ability significantly predicted pitch processing ability
Abstract
Studies of developmental prosopagnosia have often shown that developmental prosopagnosia differentially affects human face processing over non-face object processing. However, little consideration has been given to whether this condition is associated with perceptual or sensorimotor impairments in other modalities. Comorbidities have played a role in theories of other developmental disorders such as dyslexia, but studies of developmental prosopagnosia have often focused on the nature of the visual recognition impairment despite evidence for widespread neural anomalies that might affect other sensorimotor systems.
We studied 12 subjects with developmental prosopagnosia with a battery of auditory tests evaluating pitch and rhythm processing as well as voice perception and recognition. Overall, three subjects were impaired in fine pitch discrimination, a prevalence of 25% that is higher than the estimated 4% prevalence of congenital amusia in the general population. This was a selective deficit, as rhythm perception was unaffected in all 12 subjects. Furthermore, two of the three prosopagnosic subjects who were impaired in pitch discrimination had intact voice perception and recognition, while two of the remaining nine subjects had impaired voice recognition but intact pitch perception.
These results indicate that, in some subjects with developmental prosopagnosia, the face recognition deficit is not an isolated impairment but is associated with deficits in other domains, such as auditory perception. These deficits may form part of a broader syndrome which could be due to distributed microstructural anomalies in various brain networks, possibly with a common theme of right hemispheric predominance.
What Laypeople Think the Big Five Trait Labels Mean: Lay beliefs corresponded generally well with standard Big Five inventories’ content, but there were notable disjunctions between beliefs and the standards
What Laypeople Think the Big Five Trait Labels Mean. Judith A.Hall et al. Journal of Research in Personality, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2018.12.007
Highlights
• Laypeople were able to describe how they apply the Big Five traits in daily life.
• Each trait had 9 to 13 facets that varied in their centrality to the trait.
• Lay beliefs corresponded generally well with standard Big Five inventories’ content.
• But there were notable disjunctions between lay beliefs and inventories’ content.
Abstract: We asked what laypeople think the commonly used Big Five trait labels mean, and how well their beliefs match the content of standard Big Five scales. Study 1 established participants’ familiarity with the Big Five trait labels. In Studies 2 and 3, participants described persons high on the traits using a free response format. Responses were sorted into categories (facets), each of which earned a centrality index defined as the proportion of responses for the given trait that fell into that category. Studies 2 and 3 converged well. Comparisons with four standard Big Five inventories revealed substantial commonality but also notable areas of non-overlap consisting of content identified by laypeople that was not represented in the standard scales, as well as content in the standard scales that was not mentioned by laypeople.
Highlights
• Laypeople were able to describe how they apply the Big Five traits in daily life.
• Each trait had 9 to 13 facets that varied in their centrality to the trait.
• Lay beliefs corresponded generally well with standard Big Five inventories’ content.
• But there were notable disjunctions between lay beliefs and inventories’ content.
Abstract: We asked what laypeople think the commonly used Big Five trait labels mean, and how well their beliefs match the content of standard Big Five scales. Study 1 established participants’ familiarity with the Big Five trait labels. In Studies 2 and 3, participants described persons high on the traits using a free response format. Responses were sorted into categories (facets), each of which earned a centrality index defined as the proportion of responses for the given trait that fell into that category. Studies 2 and 3 converged well. Comparisons with four standard Big Five inventories revealed substantial commonality but also notable areas of non-overlap consisting of content identified by laypeople that was not represented in the standard scales, as well as content in the standard scales that was not mentioned by laypeople.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
