Publication bias and the canonization of false facts (2017)

Publication bias and the canonization of false facts. Silas Boye Nissen, Tali Magidson, Kevin Gross, Carl T Bergstrom. eLife Sciences, 2016, https://elifesciences.org/articles/21451

Abstract: Science is facing a “replication crisis” in which many experimental findings cannot bereplicated and are likely to be false. Does this imply that many scientific facts are false as well? To find out, we explore the process by which a claim becomes fact. We model the community’s confidence in a claim as a Markov process with successive published results shifting the degree of belief. Publication bias in favor of positive findings influences the distribution of published results. We findthat unless a sufficient fraction of negative results are published, false claims frequently can become canonized as fact. Data-dredging, p-hacking, and similar behaviors exacerbate the problem. Should negative results become easier to publish as a claim approaches acceptance as a fact, however, true and false claims would be more readily distinguished. To the degree that the model reflects the real world, there may be serious concerns about the validity of purported facts in some disciplines.

Check also Raising awareness for the replication crisis in clinical psychology by focusing on inconsistencies in psychotherapy research: how much can we rely on published findings from efficacy trials? Michael P. Hengartner. Front. Psychol. 2018 http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/psychotherapy-was-marvellous-invention.html

Also Replication in experimental economics: A historical and quantitative approach focused on public good game experiments. Nicolas Vallois, Dorian Jullien. GREDEG Working Paper No. 2017-21. 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/03/replication-in-experimental-economics.html

And Psychology's Renaissance. Leif D. Nelson, Joseph P. Simmons, and Uri Simonsohn. Annual Review of Psychology, forthcoming. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/11/the-scientific-practices-of.html

Replication in experimental economics: Not good

Replication in experimental economics: A historical and quantitative approach focused on public good game experiments. Nicolas Vallois, Dorian Jullien. GREDEG Working Paper No. 2017-21. 2017. https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01651080/

Abstract : We propose a historical perspective on replication in experimental economics focused on public good games. Our intended contribution is twofold: in terms of method and in terms of object. Methodologically, we blend traditional qualitative history of economics with a less traditional quantitative approach using basic econometric tools to detect unnoticed historical patterns of replication. In terms of our object, we highlight a type of replication that we call " baseline replication ", which is not present in explicit methodological discussions, yet central in the specificity of experimental economics regarding replication in economics.

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Conclusion
The goal of this paper was to propose a historical perspective on the practice of replication in experimental economics. Explicit methodological discussions of replication in economics highlight several meanings of \replication". However none of these meanings correspond to the most widely practiced type of replication in experimental economics, which we called "baseline replication": that similar baseline conditions in different experiments have to yield similar results.

We proposed a quantitative approach to highlight the historical dynamics of replication in public good games experiments. We found that results in baseline conditions converge over time, which suggests that baseline replications are effective over time, but they also decline over time, which suggests a counter-intuitive (i.e., non-stable) notion of replication. We prefer to interpret our results as a sign of the standardization of experimental practice over time which favors internal validity, rather than a sign of scientic progress towards a \true" baseline result in PG games. We hope that our blend of qualitative and quantitative approach to history of recent economics can motivate discussions with economists, both regarding our econometric method and our empirical results. In terms of further work, our results suggest that  finding a measure of standardization of experimental protocols can provide an interesting variable to study long-term patterns in experimental economics. Finally, baseline replication in other types of experiments than PG games could be studied.

Age difference between parents influences parity and number of sons

Kuna B, Galbarczyk A, Klimek M, Nenko I, Jasienska G. Age difference between parents influences parity and number of sons. Am J Hum Biol. 2018;e23095. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajhb.23095

Abstract

Objectives: Among couples, women usually prefer slightly older men, and men tend to choose much younger partners. Age difference between partners has been shown to influence their parity; however, results of previous studies are inconsistent. This study analyzed relationships between husband and wife age difference and their total number of children, and number of daughters and sons in a contemporary, rural Polish population.

Methods: Demographic and reproductive data were collected from 384 postmenopausal women from rural Poland who were married only once. Regression models were used to evaluate the impact of the age gap between partners on total number of children and on number of daughters and sons. Women's age, age at marriage (as an indicator of reproductive value), and years of education were used in analyzes as potential confounders.

Results: There was an inverted U-shape association between parental age difference and number of children and also the number of sons. The highest number of children and sons was observed when men were approximately 6.5 years older than their wives. There was no significant relationship between parental age difference and number of daughters.

Conclusions: Age difference between partners is important for reproductive success (with younger wives having higher reproductive potential) and is also related to number of sons. Older husbands might provide more resources for the family, thus facilitating production of well-nourished male offspring. Future research should evaluate not only number of children but also their biological condition, health, and lifetime achievements in relation to the age difference between their parents.

Self-Perceived Mate Value, Facial Attractiveness, and Mate Preferences: Do Desirable Men Want It All?

Self-Perceived Mate Value, Facial Attractiveness, and Mate Preferences: Do Desirable Men Want It All? Steven Arnocky. Evolutionary Psychology,  https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704918763271

Abstract: Ten years ago, Buss and Shackelford demonstrated that high mate value (i.e., physically attractive) women held more discerning mate preferences relative to lower mate value women. Since then, researchers have begun to consider the equally important role of men’s sexual selectivity in human mate choice. Yet, little research has focused on whether high mate value men are similarly choosy in their mate preferences. In a sample of 139 undergraduate men, relationships between self-perceived mate value as well as female-rated facial attractiveness were examined in relation to men’s expressed mate preferences. Results showed that self-perceived mate value was unrelated to men’s facial attractiveness as rated by women. Men who believed they were of high mate value were more likely than lower mate value men to prefer to marry at a younger age; to have a spouse who was younger than them; and to have a partner who was sociable, ambitious, high in social status, with good financial prospects, a desire for children, health, good looks, and mutual attraction. Objective male facial attractiveness was generally unrelated to heightened mate preferences, with the exception of heightened preference for similar religious background and good physical health. Findings suggest that men who perceive themselves as high in overall mate value are selective in their mate choice in a manner similar to high mate value women.

Keywords: mate value, mate preferences, facial attractiveness, individual differences, long-term mating

The gender gap on public opinion towards genetically modified foods

The gender gap on public opinion towards genetically modified foods. Laurel Elder, Steven Greene, Mary Kate Lizotte. The Social Science Journal, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.02.015

Abstract: Ever since genetically modified (GM) foods were introduced into the food supply in the 1990s they have provoked debate and concern. The number of GM foods approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and offered on supermarket shelves has steadily grown at the same time that public wariness about the safety of GM foods has increased. Studies within the scientific literature show a strikingly large gender gap in attitudes towards GM foods with women consistently more skeptical than men. However, there have been few efforts to understand the determinants of the gender gap on GM foods within the political science literature. This study employs a 2014 Pew Research Center survey on science issues to test several possible explanations for the gender gap in attitudes towards GM foods rooted in the different life experiences of women and men. The results show that while being a parent predicts more skeptical views about genetically modified foods overall it does not explain the gender gap in attitudes. In contrast, knowledge about science and having confidence in science do play a significant role in mediating the gender gap. By exploring the robust and pervasive gender gap on the issue of GM foods, this study sheds light on the fundamentally different ways men and women approach political issues.

Keywords: Gender gap; Public opinion; Genetically modified foods; Parent gap; Attitudes about science


Check also What lies beneath? Fear vs. disgust as affective predictors of absolutist opposition to genetically modified food and other new technologies. Edward Royzman, Corey Cusimano, and Robert F. Leeman. Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 12, No. 5, September 2017, pp. 466-480.

We find no relationship between other personality traits, personality judgment accuracy and face memory. Individual differences in detecting personality traits do not relate to their face memory abilities

Satchell, Liam, Josh P Davis, Eglantine Julle-Danière, Nina Tupper, and Paul Marshman 2018. “Super-recognising Kernels of Truth? Exploring the Relationship Between Personality, Person Judgment Accuracy and Face Recognition.”. PsyArXiv. March 14. psyarxiv.com/63whf

Abstract

Research has shown that individuals can recognise personality traits from photographs of others’ faces. It is suggested that this is possible as faces contain a biometric ‘kernel of truth’ for personality traits. If biometric facial features facilitate person judgments, then those adept at face memory (super-recognisers) could show heightened ability at recognising personality traits. This study evaluates the links between face memory accuracy and trait judgment accuracy. We investigated the relationship between participants’ face memory, Big Five personality traits and their accuracy in judging the Big Five personality traits (from 50 self-selected photographs of unknown individuals) in a sample of 792 individuals. We replicated previous findings that participant extraversion relates to face memory ability. We find no relationship between other personality traits, personality judgment accuracy and face memory. Individual differences in detecting personality traits do not relate to their face memory abilities. We do replicate the relationship between extraversion and face memory ability in the largest sample to date. This suggests that super-recognising faces and traits are domain-specific abilities. If surveillance operators are expected to detect impending incidents, then our findings would suggest that this is something that super-recognisers would need training in.

Why sexual activity: Men prefer physical reasons and women more often expressing emotional and insecurity reasons

Wyverkens E, Dewitte M, Deschepper E, et al. YSEX? A Replication Study in Different Age Groups. The Journal of Sexual Medicine 2018;XX:XXX–XXX. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsxm.2018.02.012

Abstract

Introduction: 10 years ago, Meston and Buss (Arch Sex Behav 2007;36:477–507) identified 237 reasons for having sex. Since then, only a few studies have built on the analyses of differences in sexual motivation.

Aim: To replicate the YSEX? in a broader sample of women and men of different ages.

Methods: Women and men younger than 18 (n = 141), 18 to 22 (n = 1,039), 22 to 55 (n = 2,804), and at least 55 (n = 667) years old completed an online survey about their reasons for engaging in sex during the past year.

Main Outcome Measures: The YSEX? inventory was assessed to measure sexual motivation. The taxonomy consists of 4 main factors (physical, goal attainment, emotional, insecurity) and 13 subfactors.

Results: 4,655 participants took part in the survey. The top 5 primary reasons for engaging in sex were identical across age groups and sexes. However, results also showed that the pattern of motivations for sex significantly differed depending on the age and sex of the participant. Older participants reported significantly less physical and utilitarian reasons than younger participants. Young adult men (18–22 years) were particularly motivated to have sex for emotional reasons of love and commitment. Women in this age group engaged more often in sex to express their emotions than older women. Significant sex differences were found, with men preferring physical reasons and women more often expressing emotional and insecurity reasons, except for the group of adolescents.

Conclusions: Our study shows that most people are driven by the pleasure of sex. With aging, the physical driving force and sexual satisfaction significantly decrease, although sex remains important throughout life. The findings support a biopsychosocial approach to the understanding of people’s sexual motivation. Evolutionary differences might explain some of our findings, as might shifting cultural norms.

Key Words: Sexual Motivation; Age; Gender; Generations; Biopsychosocial; Men’s Sexual Desire

Is Fertility After the Demographic Transition Maladaptive?

Is Fertility After the Demographic Transition Maladaptive? Rosemary L. Hopcroft. Journal of Biosocial Science, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932018000032

Summary: Fitness is always relative to the fitness of others in the group or breeding population. Even in very low-fertility societies, individual fitness as measured by the share of genes in subsequent generations may still be maximized. Further, sexual selection theory from evolutionary biology suggests that the relationship between status and fertility will differ for males and females. For this reason it is important to examine the relationship between status and fertility separately for males and females–something few demographic studies of fertility do. When male fertility is measured separately, high-status men (as measured by their wealth and personal income) have higher fertility than low-status men, even in very low-fertility societies, so individual males appear to be maximizing their fitness within the constraints posed by a modern society. Thus male fertility cannot be considered maladaptive. When female fertility is measured separately, in both very high- and very low-fertility societies, there is not much variance across women of different statuses in completed fertility. Only in societies currently changing rapidly (with falling fertility rates) is somewhat high variance across women of different statuses in completed fertility found. What is seen across all phases of the demographic transition appears to be a continuation of two somewhat different evolved human reproductive strategies–one male, one female–in changing social and material contexts. Whether contemporary female fertility is maladaptive remains an open question.

Check also Evolution and Human Reproduction. Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber. In Oxford Handbook of Evolution, Biology, and Society, edited by Rosemary L. Hopcroft. Mar 2018. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/03/association-between-status-and.html

And: Cultural and reproductive success in industrial societies: Testing the relationship at the proximate and ultimate levels. Daniel Pérusse. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Volume 16, Issue 2, June 1993 , pp. 267-283. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X00029939

Differences in nut-cracking efficiency between wild chimpanzee groups: Group belonging and conformity makes them to use inferior tools to be more prosocial

Costly culture: differences in nut-cracking efficiency between wild chimpanzee groups. Lydia V.Luncz et al. Animal Behaviour, Volume 137, March 2018, Pages 63-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2017.12.017

Highlights
•    Nut cracking efficiency differed between chimpanzee groups.
•    Group-specific tool selection led to differences in nut intake rates.
•    Neighbouring groups applied different strategies to open the nuts.
•    Stone hammers were more efficient than wooden hammers.

Abstract: Cultural diversity among social groups has recently been documented in multiple animal species. Investigations of the origin and spread of diverse behaviour at group level in wild-ranging animals have added valuable information on social learning mechanisms under natural conditions. Behavioural diversity has been especially informative in the case of dispersal, where the transfer of individuals between groups leads to a sudden exposure to unfamiliar behaviour. Little is known, however, about the underlying costs and benefits of cultural transmission in animals and humans alike, as efficiency of cultural variants is often difficult to measure. The chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes, of the Taï National Park in Ivory Coast are known to exhibit a number of cultural differences between social groups, including hammer selection for nut cracking. This provides the unique opportunity to quantify the efficiency of cultural variants. We compared foraging speed and number of hits applied during nut-cracking events between three neighbouring chimpanzee groups. Our results showed significant differences in nut-cracking efficiency, caused by hammer material selection and differences in the applied power of impact per nut. Persistent behavioural coherence within the respective groups implies that immigrants adjust their behaviour to local nut-cracking techniques, even when individual foraging success might be compromised. This suggests that the benefit of belonging to a social group might outweigh the benefits of maximizing individual foraging efficiency. The differences in nut-cracking efficiency between chimpanzee groups add to the ever-growing body of cultural variants in wild chimpanzees and expand our knowledge of the importance of group belonging and conformity in wild chimpanzees.

The Effect of Primary Care Visits on Health Care Utilization: It doesn't control expenses in the medium and long run

The Effect of Primary Care Visits on Health Care Utilization: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial. Cathy J. Bradley, David Neumark, and Lauryn Saxe Walker. Cato Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 104, March 14 2018, https://www.cato.org/publications/research-briefs-economic-policy/effect-primary-care-visits-health-care-utilization

[C]ash incentives, which can be manipulated by policymakers, encourage the desired behavior of primary care provider (PCP) utilization, but they may also have unintended consequences for other types of health care utilization. Total spending increases during the initial six-month incentive period, but the increase generally is not statistically significant among most incentives groups during the second six-month period…

We conclude that although an initial PCP visit can be effectively incentivized, and although observation of subsequent visits suggests that a PCP relationship has been established, overall health care utilization may not be reduced and may even increase in the short run.

Pleasure: The Missing Link in the Regulation of Sleep

Pleasure: The Missing Link in the Regulation of Sleep. R.V. Rial et al. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neubiorev.2018.03.012

Highlights
•    Sleeping is pleasant, a fact that has been ignored by sleep scholars.
•    Pleasure is the long missing link in the regulation of sleep.
•    Dopamine links the brain rewarding system and the sleep–wake circuitry.
•    Sleep begins when the displeasure of continuing awake is excessive.
•    Sleep ends when sleeping is no longer pleasant.
•    Only mammals and birds are able to experience emotional sleep.

Abstract

Although largely unrecognized by sleep scholars, sleeping is a pleasure. This report aims first, to fill the gap: sleep, like food, water and sex, is a primary reinforcer.

The levels of extracellular mesolimbic dopamine show circadian oscillations and mark the “wanting” for pro-homeostatic stimuli. Further, the dopamine levels decrease during waking and are replenished during sleep, in opposition to sleep propensity. The wanting of sleep, therefore, may explain the homeostatic and circadian regulation of sleep. Accordingly, sleep onset occurs when the displeasure of excessive waking is maximal, coinciding with the minimal levels of mesolimbic dopamine. Reciprocally, sleep ends after having replenished the limbic dopamine levels. Given the direct relation between waking and mesolimbic dopamine, sleep must serve primarily to gain an efficient waking.

Pleasant sleep (i.e. emotional sleep), can only exist in animals capable of feeling emotions. Therefore, although sleep-like states have been described in invertebrates and primitive vertebrates, the association sleep-pleasure clearly marks a difference between the sleep of homeothermic vertebrates and cool blooded animals.

Keywords: Brain rewarding system; Sleep; Dopamine; Pleasure; Sleep regulation; Sleep function; Emotional sleep

Trait-level happiness seeking, as well as direct manipulation of happiness seeking, consistently reveal reduced feelings of time availability while pursuing happiness

Vanishing time in the pursuit of happiness. Aekyoung Kim, Sam J. Maglio. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758%2Fs13423-018-1436-7

Abstract: Happiness can be conceptualized as a positive affective state or as a goal whose pursuit ironically pulls the pursuer away from achieving it (Mauss, Tamir, Anderson, & Savino in Emotion, 11(4), 807–815, 2011). But how do people think about time during this latter, never-ending pursuit of happiness? The present investigation asks how seeking happiness influences perceptions of time availability. Four studies demonstrated that trait-level happiness seeking (Study 1) as well as direct manipulation of happiness seeking (Studies 2, 3, and 4) consistently reveal the same pattern: reduced feelings of time availability while pursuing happiness. This negative effect on time availability is mitigated when happiness seems like it has been achieved (Study 2) or seems quick to achieve (Study 3). In addition, pursuing happiness can ultimately decrease happiness, in part, by reducing perceptions of time availability (Study 4), extending theories on happiness, goal pursuit, and perceptions of time.

Homosexual Behavior Between Male Spider Monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi)

Homosexual Behavior Between Male Spider Monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi). Laura Busia et al. Archives of Sexual Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-018-1177-8

Abstract: Homosexual behavior is defined as genital contact or genital manipulation between same-sex individuals. In nonhuman primates, it may regulate social relationships by serving as a means of reconciliation, tension alleviation, or alliance formation. Grappling is a rare and complex behavior, which most frequently occurs between same-sex individuals of the genus Ateles and can include mutual manipulation of the genitalia. Here we report three cases of penile–anal intromission during grappling between wild male spider monkeys living in the natural protected area of Otoch Ma’ax Yetel Kooh, Mexico. In all the observed cases, the same adult male was the actor. To our knowledge, this is the first report of penile–anal intromission between males in any New World primate species.

Autonomous Vehicles Require Socio-Political Acceptance—An Empirical and Philosophical Perspective on the Problem of Moral Decision Making

Autonomous Vehicles Require Socio-Political Acceptance—An Empirical and Philosophical Perspective on the Problem of Moral Decision Making. Lasse T. Bergmann et al. Front. Behav. Neurosci., February 28 2018, https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2018.00031

Abstract: Autonomous vehicles, though having enormous potential, face a number of challenges. As a computer system interacting with society on a large scale and human beings in particular, they will encounter situations, which require moral assessment. What will count as right behavior in such situations depends on which factors are considered to be both morally justified and socially acceptable. In an empirical study we investigated what factors people recognize as relevant in driving situations. The study put subjects in several “dilemma” situations, which were designed to isolate different and potentially relevant factors. Subjects showed a surprisingly high willingness to sacrifice themselves to save others, took the age of potential victims in a crash into consideration and were willing to swerve onto a sidewalk if this saved more lives. The empirical insights are intended to provide a starting point for a discussion, ultimately yielding societal agreement whereby the empirical insights should be balanced with philosophical considerations.

Ironically, the lower reported frequency of negative feedback may make it easier for recipients to dismiss such feedback as “just one person’s opinion”, thereby weakening its impact even more

Gallrein, A.-M. B., Bollich-Ziegler, K. L. and Leising, D. (), Interpersonal feedback in everyday life – Empirical studies in Germany and the United States. Eur. J. Soc. Psychol.. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1002/ejsp.2381

Abstract: The present research examines occurrences of interpersonal feedback in everyday life. Drawing upon retrospective self-reports from three student samples in Germany and the US, we investigate why, how, and with what effect such feedback is shared. We found that feedback was common, occurring mostly within stable interpersonal relationships, and that positive feedback was reported to occur more often than negative feedback. Positive and negative feedback was provided to achieve different goals (acknowledgement vs. behavioral change), and feedback senders perceived negative feedback as less successful than positive feedback. Negative feedback was withheld primarily when potential senders perceived it as futile or potentially dangerous for their relationship with the recipient. However, negative feedback that was shared was not seen as particularly harmful in that regard. We discuss potential barriers to feedback effectiveness, whether and how the exchange of interpersonal feedback in everyday life may be promoted, and make recommendations for future research.