Why do people vary in disgust? Joshua M. Tybur, Çağla Çınar, Annika K. Karinen, Paola Perone. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, July 19 2018. Volume 373, issue 1751, DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0204
Abstract: People vary in the degree to which they experience disgust toward—and, consequently, avoid—cues to pathogens. Prodigious work has measured this variation and observed that it relates to, among other things, personality, psychopathological tendencies, and moral and political sentiments. Less work has sought to generate hypotheses aimed at explaining why this variation exists in the first place, and even less work has evaluated how well data support these hypotheses. In this paper, we present and review the evidence supporting three such proposals. First, researchers have suggested that variability reflects a general tendency to experience anxiety or emotional distress. Second, researchers have suggested that variability arises from parental modelling, with offspring calibrating their pathogen avoidance based on their parents' reactions to pathogen cues. Third, researchers have suggested that individuals calibrate their disgust sensitivity to the parasite stress of the ecology in which they develop. We conclude that none of these hypotheses is supported by existing data, and we propose directions for future research aimed at better understanding this variation.
Monday, June 4, 2018
Vanilla extract becomes more expensive than silver; synthetic flavour from petroleum, coal tar is spurned in favor of non-synthetic options
Crop uncertainty drives vanilla price back to record level. Emiko Terazono, The Financial Times, March 25, 2018
Foodmakers turn to alternatives as flavour extract becomes more expensive than silverhttps://www.ft.com/content/1c810c2a-286f-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0
Ice cream and cake makers hoping for cheaper vanilla will be disappointed as uncertainty about this year’s crop in the world’s top grower Madagascar has driven the price of the spice back to record levels.
Vanilla prices soared to its record $600 a kilogramme last year after a cyclone hit the tropical island off the south-east coast of Africa, sending buyers scrambling to secure supplies of the flavouring extract.
Prices eased off below $550/kg at the end of last year on hopes of a good crop in 2018, but are now back at $600 amid uncertainty over crop levels.
The flowering period of the vanilla orchid, which produces vanilla beans, has ended and the pods are now growing.
“We won’t know the production [levels] until June,” said Mélanie Legris at Eurovanille, the French trading company.
Vanilla is the second most expensive spice after saffron and at current levels is more expensive than silver, which is trading just above $530/kg. Madagascar supplies 75 to 80 per cent of the world vanilla bean market, and other producers including Indonesia and India do not grow enough to make up for sudden fluctuations in Madagascan vanilla pod production.
The squeeze on vanilla beans has also pushed up the price of by-products of the beans.
The price of “spent” vanilla specks — ground vanilla made from used beans that are then dried, ground and sterilised — has jumped from about $40 a kilogramme to $150, said traders.
In most cases, the spent specks are used as a “visual enhancement” said Naushad Lalani at Sentrex Ingredients, a US maker of essences and food flavouring ingredients.
Using spent beans allows foodmakers to list vanilla beans as an ingredient and put a picture of a vanilla pod or flower on the packaging, although the actual flavour may come from a non-vanilla bean source.
Some artisanal ice cream makers were forced to stop producing vanilla ice cream last year as they could not get hold of affordable vanilla bean supplies, while others raised prices or switched to vanilla flavouring made from other sources.
Vanilla is one of the world’s most popular flavours, but only about 1 per cent of the extracts used in food and cosmetics come from real pods. Vanillin, the flavour molecule found in vanilla beans, is also extracted from petroleum, coal tar and wood as well as natural food sources such as rice bran and clove oil.
Demand for artificial vanilla flavouring is rising. There has been “a positive shift in demand for our bio-based sustainable vanillin product”, said Tone Horvei Bredal at Borregaard, the Norwegian group that makes vanillin from wood.
Vanilla pod prices were on the rise before the cyclone hit Madagascar, as leading foodmakers such as Unilever and Nestlé pledged to use natural ingredients in their products, spurning synthetic flavourings.
But the rising price of vanilla beans is forcing users away to natural alternatives. Demand destruction is a concern, Mr Lalani said. “People have migrated to natural alternatives. Will they ever come back to pure vanilla?”
Foodmakers turn to alternatives as flavour extract becomes more expensive than silverhttps://www.ft.com/content/1c810c2a-286f-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0
Ice cream and cake makers hoping for cheaper vanilla will be disappointed as uncertainty about this year’s crop in the world’s top grower Madagascar has driven the price of the spice back to record levels.
Vanilla prices soared to its record $600 a kilogramme last year after a cyclone hit the tropical island off the south-east coast of Africa, sending buyers scrambling to secure supplies of the flavouring extract.
Prices eased off below $550/kg at the end of last year on hopes of a good crop in 2018, but are now back at $600 amid uncertainty over crop levels.
The flowering period of the vanilla orchid, which produces vanilla beans, has ended and the pods are now growing.
“We won’t know the production [levels] until June,” said Mélanie Legris at Eurovanille, the French trading company.
Vanilla is the second most expensive spice after saffron and at current levels is more expensive than silver, which is trading just above $530/kg. Madagascar supplies 75 to 80 per cent of the world vanilla bean market, and other producers including Indonesia and India do not grow enough to make up for sudden fluctuations in Madagascan vanilla pod production.
The squeeze on vanilla beans has also pushed up the price of by-products of the beans.
The price of “spent” vanilla specks — ground vanilla made from used beans that are then dried, ground and sterilised — has jumped from about $40 a kilogramme to $150, said traders.
In most cases, the spent specks are used as a “visual enhancement” said Naushad Lalani at Sentrex Ingredients, a US maker of essences and food flavouring ingredients.
Using spent beans allows foodmakers to list vanilla beans as an ingredient and put a picture of a vanilla pod or flower on the packaging, although the actual flavour may come from a non-vanilla bean source.
Some artisanal ice cream makers were forced to stop producing vanilla ice cream last year as they could not get hold of affordable vanilla bean supplies, while others raised prices or switched to vanilla flavouring made from other sources.
Vanilla is one of the world’s most popular flavours, but only about 1 per cent of the extracts used in food and cosmetics come from real pods. Vanillin, the flavour molecule found in vanilla beans, is also extracted from petroleum, coal tar and wood as well as natural food sources such as rice bran and clove oil.
Demand for artificial vanilla flavouring is rising. There has been “a positive shift in demand for our bio-based sustainable vanillin product”, said Tone Horvei Bredal at Borregaard, the Norwegian group that makes vanillin from wood.
Vanilla pod prices were on the rise before the cyclone hit Madagascar, as leading foodmakers such as Unilever and Nestlé pledged to use natural ingredients in their products, spurning synthetic flavourings.
But the rising price of vanilla beans is forcing users away to natural alternatives. Demand destruction is a concern, Mr Lalani said. “People have migrated to natural alternatives. Will they ever come back to pure vanilla?”
Sunday, June 3, 2018
Evidence based on over 10 years of experience sampling: Emotional experience improves with age; best time is over 70 years old
Carstensen, L. L., Turan, B., Scheibe, S., Ram, N., Ersner-Hershfield, H., Samanez-Larkin, G. R., . . . Nesselroade, J. R. (2011). Emotional experience improves with age: Evidence based on over 10 years of experience sampling. Psychology and Aging, 26(1), 21-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0021285
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that emotional well-being improves from early adulthood to old age. This study used experience-sampling to examine the developmental course of emotional experience in a representative sample of adults spanning early to very late adulthood. Participants (N = 184, Wave 1; N = 191, Wave 2; N = 178, Wave 3) reported their emotional states at five randomly selected times each day for a one week period. Using a measurement burst design, the one-week sampling procedure was repeated five and then ten years later. Cross-sectional and growth curve analyses indicate that aging is associated with more positive overall emotional well-being, with greater emotional stability and with more complexity (as evidenced by greater co-occurrence of positive and negative emotions). These findings remained robust after accounting for other variables that may be related to emotional experience (personality, verbal fluency, physical health, and demographic variables). Finally, emotional experience predicted mortality; controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, individuals who experienced relatively more positive than negative emotions in everyday life were more likely to have survived over a 13 year period. Findings are discussed in the theoretical context of socioemotional selectivity theory.
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that emotional well-being improves from early adulthood to old age. This study used experience-sampling to examine the developmental course of emotional experience in a representative sample of adults spanning early to very late adulthood. Participants (N = 184, Wave 1; N = 191, Wave 2; N = 178, Wave 3) reported their emotional states at five randomly selected times each day for a one week period. Using a measurement burst design, the one-week sampling procedure was repeated five and then ten years later. Cross-sectional and growth curve analyses indicate that aging is associated with more positive overall emotional well-being, with greater emotional stability and with more complexity (as evidenced by greater co-occurrence of positive and negative emotions). These findings remained robust after accounting for other variables that may be related to emotional experience (personality, verbal fluency, physical health, and demographic variables). Finally, emotional experience predicted mortality; controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, individuals who experienced relatively more positive than negative emotions in everyday life were more likely to have survived over a 13 year period. Findings are discussed in the theoretical context of socioemotional selectivity theory.
What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Partisanship?
What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Partisanship? James Druckman and Matthew Levendusky. Norwestern University WP-18-12, https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/publications/papers/2018/wp-18-12.html
Abstract: Affective polarization—the tendency of Democrats and Republicans to dislike and distrust one another—has become an important phenomenon in American politics. Yet despite scholarly attention to this topic, two important measurement lacunae remain. First, what items—of the many previously employed—should be used to measure this concept? Second, these items all ask respondents about the parties. When individuals answer them, do they think of voters, elites, or both? The researchers demonstrate that most of the previously used items tap affective polarization, with the exception being the popular social distance measures. Second, they show that when answering questions about the other party, individuals think about elites more than voters, and express more animus when the questions focus on elites. This suggests that increased affective polarization reflects, to some extent, growing animus towards politicians more than ordinary voters. They conclude by discussing the consequences for both measuring this concept and understanding its ramifications.
Abstract: Affective polarization—the tendency of Democrats and Republicans to dislike and distrust one another—has become an important phenomenon in American politics. Yet despite scholarly attention to this topic, two important measurement lacunae remain. First, what items—of the many previously employed—should be used to measure this concept? Second, these items all ask respondents about the parties. When individuals answer them, do they think of voters, elites, or both? The researchers demonstrate that most of the previously used items tap affective polarization, with the exception being the popular social distance measures. Second, they show that when answering questions about the other party, individuals think about elites more than voters, and express more animus when the questions focus on elites. This suggests that increased affective polarization reflects, to some extent, growing animus towards politicians more than ordinary voters. They conclude by discussing the consequences for both measuring this concept and understanding its ramifications.
Intelligence and openness contribute to creative achievement in the arts & sciences; creativity in the arts & sciences is influenced by genes & unique environment; artistic but not scientific creativity is also influenced by shared environment; there is a genetic overlap between openness and creativity in the arts & sciences
Genetic and environmental influences on the phenotypic associations between intelligence, personality, and creative achievement in the arts and sciences. Örjan de Manzano, Fredrik Ullén. Intelligence, Volume 69, July–August 2018, Pages 123–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2018.05.004
Highlights
• Intelligence and openness contribute to creative achievement in the arts and sciences.
• Creativity in the arts and sciences is influenced by genes and unique environment.
• Artistic but not scientific creativity is also influenced by shared environment.
• There is a genetic overlap between openness and creativity in the arts and sciences.
• Most genetic influences on intelligence are also involved in scientific creativity.
Abstract: Several studies suggest a different effect of intelligence and personality on creative achievement in the arts and sciences. There is also research showing that all these variables are influenced by both genes and environmental factors. The aim of this study was to move further and investigate whether the relative influence of genes and environment on the associations between personality, intelligence, and creative achievement differs between the arts and sciences. Measures of intelligence (Wiener Matrizen Test), personality traits (BFI-44), and creative achievement (Creative Achievement Questionnaire) were obtained from a twin cohort. The sample size differed between measures, ranging between 6606 and 9537 individuals (1349 and 2250 complete twin pairs). Firstly, we performed several phenotypic analyses. These analyses collectively showed that intelligence and the personality trait ‘openness to experience’ were the only traits which contributed significantly to achievement, in either creative domain. Intelligence showed a stronger association with science than with art (non-linear and linear form, respectively), while relations between openness and achievement showed the opposite pattern. Secondly, we performed genetic modeling. Univariate analyses showed artistic creative achievement to be the only variable significantly influenced by shared environment. Individual differences in the remaining traits could be accounted for by additive genetic effects and non-shared environment. Results from two trivariate analyses, which included intelligence, openness, and creative achievement in either the arts or sciences, indicated a substantial and fairly equal genetic overlap between openness and achievement in the two creative domains. Genes associated with intelligence however, played a significantly greater role in scientific achievement than in artistic achievement. In fact, the majority of genetic influences on intelligence were also involved in scientific creative achievement. There was also an overlap of unique environmental influences between intelligence and scientific creative achievement that was not present between intelligence and artistic creative achievement.
Highlights
• Intelligence and openness contribute to creative achievement in the arts and sciences.
• Creativity in the arts and sciences is influenced by genes and unique environment.
• Artistic but not scientific creativity is also influenced by shared environment.
• There is a genetic overlap between openness and creativity in the arts and sciences.
• Most genetic influences on intelligence are also involved in scientific creativity.
Abstract: Several studies suggest a different effect of intelligence and personality on creative achievement in the arts and sciences. There is also research showing that all these variables are influenced by both genes and environmental factors. The aim of this study was to move further and investigate whether the relative influence of genes and environment on the associations between personality, intelligence, and creative achievement differs between the arts and sciences. Measures of intelligence (Wiener Matrizen Test), personality traits (BFI-44), and creative achievement (Creative Achievement Questionnaire) were obtained from a twin cohort. The sample size differed between measures, ranging between 6606 and 9537 individuals (1349 and 2250 complete twin pairs). Firstly, we performed several phenotypic analyses. These analyses collectively showed that intelligence and the personality trait ‘openness to experience’ were the only traits which contributed significantly to achievement, in either creative domain. Intelligence showed a stronger association with science than with art (non-linear and linear form, respectively), while relations between openness and achievement showed the opposite pattern. Secondly, we performed genetic modeling. Univariate analyses showed artistic creative achievement to be the only variable significantly influenced by shared environment. Individual differences in the remaining traits could be accounted for by additive genetic effects and non-shared environment. Results from two trivariate analyses, which included intelligence, openness, and creative achievement in either the arts or sciences, indicated a substantial and fairly equal genetic overlap between openness and achievement in the two creative domains. Genes associated with intelligence however, played a significantly greater role in scientific achievement than in artistic achievement. In fact, the majority of genetic influences on intelligence were also involved in scientific creative achievement. There was also an overlap of unique environmental influences between intelligence and scientific creative achievement that was not present between intelligence and artistic creative achievement.
In order to cope with fear of death, different age groups differentiate themselves from the old age group by adopting diverse strategies including younger age identities, a distinction between the third and the fourth age, as well as theories like successful and active ageing
Lev S., Wurm S., Ayalon L. (2018) Origins of Ageism at the Individual Level. In: Ayalon L., Tesch-Römer C. (eds) Contemporary Perspectives on Ageism. International Perspectives on Aging, vol 19, pp 51-72. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73820-8_4
Abstract: This chapter presents a model that explains the origins of ageism at the individual level among different age groups. The model is based on three theories. Terror management theory provides an explanation for the roots and motives of ageism towards old age groups among young and middle-aged groups as well as among the young-old age group. Stereotype embodiment theory provides a complementary explanation for self-ageism among the young-old and old-old age groups. Finally, social identity theory focuses on the diverse expressions of ageism among different age groups. The model highlights a unique feature of ageism, which, in contrast with other types of prejudice and discrimination, is not directed towards distinct out-groups, but rather towards our future selves by symbolizing a fear of death and its accompanying deterioration. In order to cope with this fear, different age groups differentiate themselves from the old age group by adopting diverse strategies including younger age identities, a distinction between the third and the fourth age, as well as theories like successful and active ageing. Because of the gradual reduction of personal and social resources people often encounter in the later stages of life, we suggest some long-term strategies that recognize decline as a valid dimension of ageing and personhood and emphasize alternative resources.
Abstract: This chapter presents a model that explains the origins of ageism at the individual level among different age groups. The model is based on three theories. Terror management theory provides an explanation for the roots and motives of ageism towards old age groups among young and middle-aged groups as well as among the young-old age group. Stereotype embodiment theory provides a complementary explanation for self-ageism among the young-old and old-old age groups. Finally, social identity theory focuses on the diverse expressions of ageism among different age groups. The model highlights a unique feature of ageism, which, in contrast with other types of prejudice and discrimination, is not directed towards distinct out-groups, but rather towards our future selves by symbolizing a fear of death and its accompanying deterioration. In order to cope with this fear, different age groups differentiate themselves from the old age group by adopting diverse strategies including younger age identities, a distinction between the third and the fourth age, as well as theories like successful and active ageing. Because of the gradual reduction of personal and social resources people often encounter in the later stages of life, we suggest some long-term strategies that recognize decline as a valid dimension of ageing and personhood and emphasize alternative resources.
Saturday, June 2, 2018
“Fake news” is a politicized term where conversations overshadowed logical & important discussions of the term; social media users from opposing political parties communicate in homophilous environments & use “fake news” to disparage the opposition & condemn real information
Read All About It: The Politicization of “Fake News” on Twitter. John Brummette et al. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, Volume: 95 issue: 2, page(s): 497-517. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699018769906
Abstract: Due to the importance of word choice in political discourse, this study explored the use of the term “fake news.” Using a social network analysis, content analysis, and cluster analysis, political characteristics of online networks that formed around discussions of “fake news” were examined. This study found that “fake news” is a politicized term where conversations overshadowed logical and important discussions of the term. Findings also revealed that social media users from opposing political parties communicate in homophilous environments and use “fake news” to disparage the opposition and condemn real information disseminated by the opposition party members.
Keywords: social network analysis, fake news, homophily, political communication
Abstract: Due to the importance of word choice in political discourse, this study explored the use of the term “fake news.” Using a social network analysis, content analysis, and cluster analysis, political characteristics of online networks that formed around discussions of “fake news” were examined. This study found that “fake news” is a politicized term where conversations overshadowed logical and important discussions of the term. Findings also revealed that social media users from opposing political parties communicate in homophilous environments and use “fake news” to disparage the opposition and condemn real information disseminated by the opposition party members.
Keywords: social network analysis, fake news, homophily, political communication
People selectively exhibit the bias, especially in those situations where it favors their current worldview as revealed by their political orientation: The same information was presented to all participants, but people developed the causal illusion bias selectively
Causal illusions in the service of political attitudes in Spain and the UK. Fernando Blanco, Braulio Gómez-Fortes and Helena Matute- Front. Psychol. | doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01033
Abstract: The causal illusion is a cognitive bias that results in the perception of causality where there is no supporting evidence. We show that people selectively exhibit the bias, especially in those situations where it favors their current worldview as revealed by their political orientation. In our two experiments (one conducted in Spain and one conducted in the UK), participants who self-positioned themselves on the ideological left formed the illusion that a left-wing ruling party was more successful in improving city indicators than a right-wing party, while participants on the ideological right showed the opposite pattern. In sum, despite the fact that the same information was presented to all participants, people developed the causal illusion bias selectively, providing very different interpretations that aligned with their previous attitudes. This result occurs in situations where participants inspect the relationship between the government’s actions and positive outcomes (improving city indicators), but not when the outcomes are negative (worsening city indicators).
Keywords: cognitive bias, causal illusion, Ideology, Motivated reasoning, causality
Abstract: The causal illusion is a cognitive bias that results in the perception of causality where there is no supporting evidence. We show that people selectively exhibit the bias, especially in those situations where it favors their current worldview as revealed by their political orientation. In our two experiments (one conducted in Spain and one conducted in the UK), participants who self-positioned themselves on the ideological left formed the illusion that a left-wing ruling party was more successful in improving city indicators than a right-wing party, while participants on the ideological right showed the opposite pattern. In sum, despite the fact that the same information was presented to all participants, people developed the causal illusion bias selectively, providing very different interpretations that aligned with their previous attitudes. This result occurs in situations where participants inspect the relationship between the government’s actions and positive outcomes (improving city indicators), but not when the outcomes are negative (worsening city indicators).
Keywords: cognitive bias, causal illusion, Ideology, Motivated reasoning, causality
Shame is an evolved adaptation that is designed to limit the likelihood and costs of others forming negative beliefs about the self, and increases with the publicity of an act perceived unfavorably by others, even if it was unimpeachable
The true trigger of shame: social devaluation is sufficient, wrongdoing is unnecessary. Theresa E. Robertson et al. Evolution and Human Behavior, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2018.05.010
Abstract: What is the trigger of shame? The information threat theory holds that shame is an evolved adaptation that is designed to limit the likelihood and costs of others forming negative beliefs about the self. By contrast, attributional theories posit that concerns over others' evaluations are irrelevant to shame. Instead, shame is triggered when a person attributes a negative outcome to their self, rather than to a particular act or circumstance. We conduct a strong test of the information threat hypothesis. In Study 1, participants imagined taking an action that, though morally unimpeachable, could be interpreted unfavorably by others. As predicted by the information threat theory, shame increased with the publicity of this act. In Study 2, participants played a public good game and then learned that the other participants either chose to keep interacting with them (inclusion) or not (exclusion)—ostensibly because of their contributions, but in fact randomly determined by the experimenter. Exclusion increased shame. Under-contribution did not. In fact, even the highest contributors tended to feel shame when excluded. These findings strongly suggest that the true trigger of shame is the prospect or actuality of being devalued by others.
Keywords: Shame; Emotion; Social exclusion
Abstract: What is the trigger of shame? The information threat theory holds that shame is an evolved adaptation that is designed to limit the likelihood and costs of others forming negative beliefs about the self. By contrast, attributional theories posit that concerns over others' evaluations are irrelevant to shame. Instead, shame is triggered when a person attributes a negative outcome to their self, rather than to a particular act or circumstance. We conduct a strong test of the information threat hypothesis. In Study 1, participants imagined taking an action that, though morally unimpeachable, could be interpreted unfavorably by others. As predicted by the information threat theory, shame increased with the publicity of this act. In Study 2, participants played a public good game and then learned that the other participants either chose to keep interacting with them (inclusion) or not (exclusion)—ostensibly because of their contributions, but in fact randomly determined by the experimenter. Exclusion increased shame. Under-contribution did not. In fact, even the highest contributors tended to feel shame when excluded. These findings strongly suggest that the true trigger of shame is the prospect or actuality of being devalued by others.
Keywords: Shame; Emotion; Social exclusion
Why Humans Fail in Solving the Monty Hall Dilemma: There is less regret in losing by staying than in losing by switching
Saenen, L. et al. , (2018). Why Humans Fail in Solving the Monty Hall Dilemma: A Systematic Review. Psychologica Bélgica, 58 (1), pp . 128–158. http://doi.org/10.5334/pb.274
Abstract: The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a difficult brain teaser. We present a systematic review of literature published between January 2000 and February 2018 addressing why humans systematically fail to react optimally to the MHD or fail to understand it.
Based on a sequential analysis of the phases in the MHD, we first review causes in each of these phases that may prohibit humans to react optimally and to fully understand the problem. Next, we address the question whether humans’ performance, in terms of choice behaviour and (probability) understanding, can be improved. Finally, we discuss individual differences related to people’s suboptimal performance.
This review provides novel insights by means of its holistic approach of the MHD: At each phase, there are reasons to expect that people respond suboptimally. Given that the occurrence of only one cause is sufficient, it is not surprising that suboptimal responses are so widespread and people rarely understand the MHD.
Keywords: Systematic review, Monty Hall dilemma, probability, choice, decision
Abstract: The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a difficult brain teaser. We present a systematic review of literature published between January 2000 and February 2018 addressing why humans systematically fail to react optimally to the MHD or fail to understand it.
Based on a sequential analysis of the phases in the MHD, we first review causes in each of these phases that may prohibit humans to react optimally and to fully understand the problem. Next, we address the question whether humans’ performance, in terms of choice behaviour and (probability) understanding, can be improved. Finally, we discuss individual differences related to people’s suboptimal performance.
This review provides novel insights by means of its holistic approach of the MHD: At each phase, there are reasons to expect that people respond suboptimally. Given that the occurrence of only one cause is sufficient, it is not surprising that suboptimal responses are so widespread and people rarely understand the MHD.
Keywords: Systematic review, Monty Hall dilemma, probability, choice, decision
Friday, June 1, 2018
A new plan for African cities: The Ethiopia Urban Expansion Initiative
A new plan for African cities: The Ethiopia Urban Expansion Initiative. Patrick Lamson-Hall et al. Urban Studies, https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098018757601
Abstract: Recent research indicates that a simplified approach to urban planning in Sub-Saharan African cities can address the challenges of rapid urban growth. Current plans focus too heavily on the existing area of the city and offer unrealistic agendas for future urban growth, such as densification, containment and high-rise development; plans that are often too complicated and too costly to be deployed in a developing-world context. In response, New York University and the Government of Ethiopia have created a programme to deploy a simple methodology called Making Room for Urban Expansion in 18 Ethiopian cities that are experiencing rapid growth. The programme is called the Ethiopia Urban Expansion Initiative. The Initiative set aside a number of standard planning objectives and instead focused only on expanding city boundaries to include adequate land for expansion, designing and protecting a network of arterial roads spaced approximately 1 km apart, and identifying and protecting environmentally sensitive open spaces. These efforts focused on areas that had not yet been occupied by development. This article reports on the preliminary results from the four Ethiopian cities participating in the Initiative that began in 2013. The results from the first four participating cities show that simple plans can lead to the creation of new arterial roads, increasing access to peripheral land and potentially bringing the available land supply in line with projected growth. These activities can be done at the local level and implemented with limited support from consultants and from the regional and national government, and it requires minimal public investment.
Keywords: agglomeration/urbanisation, Ethiopia, housing, informality, method, urban expansion
Abstract: Recent research indicates that a simplified approach to urban planning in Sub-Saharan African cities can address the challenges of rapid urban growth. Current plans focus too heavily on the existing area of the city and offer unrealistic agendas for future urban growth, such as densification, containment and high-rise development; plans that are often too complicated and too costly to be deployed in a developing-world context. In response, New York University and the Government of Ethiopia have created a programme to deploy a simple methodology called Making Room for Urban Expansion in 18 Ethiopian cities that are experiencing rapid growth. The programme is called the Ethiopia Urban Expansion Initiative. The Initiative set aside a number of standard planning objectives and instead focused only on expanding city boundaries to include adequate land for expansion, designing and protecting a network of arterial roads spaced approximately 1 km apart, and identifying and protecting environmentally sensitive open spaces. These efforts focused on areas that had not yet been occupied by development. This article reports on the preliminary results from the four Ethiopian cities participating in the Initiative that began in 2013. The results from the first four participating cities show that simple plans can lead to the creation of new arterial roads, increasing access to peripheral land and potentially bringing the available land supply in line with projected growth. These activities can be done at the local level and implemented with limited support from consultants and from the regional and national government, and it requires minimal public investment.
Keywords: agglomeration/urbanisation, Ethiopia, housing, informality, method, urban expansion
Political correspondence between married couples and parent- offspring agreement have both increased substantially in the polarized era; the principal reason for increased spousal correspondence is mate selection based on politics
The Home as a Political Fortress; Family Agreement in an Era of Polarization. Shanto Iyengar, Tobias Konitzer, Kent Tedin. https://zapdoc.tips/the-home-as-a-political-fortress-family-agreement-in-an-era.html
Abstract: The manifestations of party polarization in America are well known: legislative gridlock, harsh elite rhetoric, and at the level of the electorate, increasing hostility across the partisan divide. We investigate the ramifications of polarization for processes of family socialization. Using the classic 1965 Youth-Parent Political Socialization Panel data as a baseline, we employ original national surveys of spouses and offspring conducted in 2015 supplemented by the 2014 and 2016 TargetSmart national voter files to demonstrate that political correspondence between married couples and parent- offspring agreement have both increased substantially in the polarized era. We further demonstrate that the principal reason for increased spousal correspondence is mate selection based on politics. Spousal agreement, in turn, creates an ”echo chamber” that facilitates intergenerational continuity. Overall, our results suggest a vicious cycle by which socialization exacerbates party polarization.
KEYWORDS: polarization, homophily; assortative mating; generations, partisanship
Analytic atheism: A cross-culturally weak and fickle phenomenon?
Analytic atheism: A cross-culturally weak and fickle phenomenon? Will M. Gervais et al. Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 13, No. 3, May 2018, pp. 268-274. http://journal.sjdm.org/18/18228/jdm18228.html
Abstract: Religious belief is a topic of longstanding interest to psychological science, but the psychology of religious disbelief is a relative newcomer. One prominently discussed model is analytic atheism, wherein cognitive reflection, as measured with the Cognitive Reflection Test, overrides religious intuitions and instruction. Consistent with this model, performance-based measures of cognitive reflection predict religious disbelief in WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, & Democratic) samples. However, the generality of analytic atheism remains unknown. Drawing on a large global sample (N = 3461) from 13 religiously, demographically, and culturally diverse societies, we find that analytic atheism as usually assessed is in fact quite fickle cross-culturally, appearing robustly only in aggregate analyses and in three individual countries. The results provide additional evidence for culture’s effects on core beliefs.
Keywords: atheism; cultural learning; dual process cognition; religious cognition; replicability; WEIRD people; culture
Abstract: Religious belief is a topic of longstanding interest to psychological science, but the psychology of religious disbelief is a relative newcomer. One prominently discussed model is analytic atheism, wherein cognitive reflection, as measured with the Cognitive Reflection Test, overrides religious intuitions and instruction. Consistent with this model, performance-based measures of cognitive reflection predict religious disbelief in WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, & Democratic) samples. However, the generality of analytic atheism remains unknown. Drawing on a large global sample (N = 3461) from 13 religiously, demographically, and culturally diverse societies, we find that analytic atheism as usually assessed is in fact quite fickle cross-culturally, appearing robustly only in aggregate analyses and in three individual countries. The results provide additional evidence for culture’s effects on core beliefs.
Keywords: atheism; cultural learning; dual process cognition; religious cognition; replicability; WEIRD people; culture
The non-effects of repeated exposure to the Cognitive Reflection Test: We do not improve scores
The non-effects of repeated exposure to the Cognitive Reflection Test. Andrew Meyer, Elizabeth Zhou, Shane Frederick. Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 13, No. 3, May 2018, pp. 246-259. http://journal.sjdm.org/18/18228a/jdm18228a.html
Abstract: We estimate the effects of repeated exposure to the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) by examining 14,053 MTurk subjects who took the test up to 25 times. In contrast with inferences drawn from self-reported prior exposure to the CRT, we find that prior exposure usually fails to improve scores. On average, respondents get only 0.024 additional items correct per exposure, and this small increase is driven entirely by the minority of subjects who continue to spend time reflecting on the items. Moreover, later scores retain the predictive validity of earlier scores, even when they differ, because initial success and later improvement appear to measure the same thing.
Keywords: Cognitive Reflection Test, repeated testing
Abstract: We estimate the effects of repeated exposure to the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) by examining 14,053 MTurk subjects who took the test up to 25 times. In contrast with inferences drawn from self-reported prior exposure to the CRT, we find that prior exposure usually fails to improve scores. On average, respondents get only 0.024 additional items correct per exposure, and this small increase is driven entirely by the minority of subjects who continue to spend time reflecting on the items. Moreover, later scores retain the predictive validity of earlier scores, even when they differ, because initial success and later improvement appear to measure the same thing.
Keywords: Cognitive Reflection Test, repeated testing
Reports of Recovered Memories of Abuse in Therapy in a Large Age-Representative U.S. National Sample: Therapy Type and Decade Comparisons
Reports of Recovered Memories of Abuse in Therapy in a Large Age-Representative U.S. National Sample: Therapy Type and Decade Comparisons. Lawrence Patihis, Mark H. Pendergrast. Clinical Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/2167702618773315
Abstract: The potential hazards of endeavoring to recover ostensibly repressed memories of abuse in therapy have previously been documented. Yet no large survey of the general public about memory recovery in therapy has been conducted. In an age-representative sample of 2,326 adults in the United States, we found that 9% (8% weighted to be representative) of the total sample reported seeing therapists who discussed the possibility of repressed abuse, and 5% (4% weighted) reported recovering memories of abuse in therapy for which they had no previous memory. Participants who reported therapists discussing the possibility of repressed memories of abuse were 20 times more likely to report recovered abuse memories than those who did not. Recovered memories of abuse were associated with most therapy types, and most associated with those who reported starting therapy in the 1990s. We discuss possible problems with such purported memory recovery and make recommendations for clinical training.
Keywords: repressed memory, trauma, abuse, psychotherapy, memory war, recovered memory therapy, open data, open materials
Abstract: The potential hazards of endeavoring to recover ostensibly repressed memories of abuse in therapy have previously been documented. Yet no large survey of the general public about memory recovery in therapy has been conducted. In an age-representative sample of 2,326 adults in the United States, we found that 9% (8% weighted to be representative) of the total sample reported seeing therapists who discussed the possibility of repressed abuse, and 5% (4% weighted) reported recovering memories of abuse in therapy for which they had no previous memory. Participants who reported therapists discussing the possibility of repressed memories of abuse were 20 times more likely to report recovered abuse memories than those who did not. Recovered memories of abuse were associated with most therapy types, and most associated with those who reported starting therapy in the 1990s. We discuss possible problems with such purported memory recovery and make recommendations for clinical training.
Keywords: repressed memory, trauma, abuse, psychotherapy, memory war, recovered memory therapy, open data, open materials
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