Researcher Requests for Inappropriate Analysis and Reporting: A U.S. Survey of Consulting Biostatisticians. Min Qi Wang, Alice F. Yan, Ralph V. Katz. Annals of Internal Medicine, http://annals.org/aim/article-abstract/2706170/researcher-requests-inappropriate-analysis-reporting-u-s-survey-consulting-biostatisticians
Abstract
Background: Inappropriate analysis and reporting of biomedical research remain a problem despite advances in statistical methods and efforts to educate researchers.
Objective: To determine the frequency and severity of requests biostatisticians receive from researchers for inappropriate analysis and reporting of data during statistical consultations.
Design: Online survey.
Setting: United States.
Participants: A randomly drawn sample of 522 American Statistical Association members self-identifying as consulting biostatisticians.
Measurements: The Bioethical Issues in Biostatistical Consulting Questionnaire soliciting reports about the frequency and perceived severity of specific requests for inappropriate analysis and reporting.
Results: Of 522 consulting biostatisticians contacted, 390 provided sufficient responses: a completion rate of 74.7%. The 4 most frequently reported inappropriate requests rated as “most severe” by at least 20% of the respondents were, in order of frequency, removing or altering some data records to better support the research hypothesis; interpreting the statistical findings on the basis of expectation, not actual results; not reporting the presence of key missing data that might bias the results; and ignoring violations of assumptions that would change results from positive to negative. These requests were reported most often by younger biostatisticians.
Limitations: The survey provides information on the reported frequency of inappropriate requests but not on how such requests were handled or whether the requests reflected researchers' maleficence or inadequate knowledge about statistical and research methods. In addition, other inappropriate requests may have been made that were not prespecified in the survey.
Conclusion: This survey suggests that researchers frequently make inappropriate requests of their biostatistical consultants regarding the analysis and reporting of their data. Understanding the reasons for these requests and how they are handled requires further study.
Friday, November 2, 2018
Distortions of perceived volume and length of body parts
Distortions of perceived volume and length of body parts. Renata Sadibolova, Elisa R. Ferrè, Sally A. Linkenauger, Matthew R. Longo. Cortex, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2018.10.016
Abstract: We experience our body as a 3D, volumetric object in the world. Measures of our conscious body image, in contrast, have investigated the perception of body size along one or two dimensions at a time. There is, thus, a discrepancy between existing methods for measuring body image and our subjective experience of having 3D body. Here we assessed in a sample of healthy adults the perception of body size in terms of its 1D length and 3D volume. Participants were randomly assigned to two groups using different measuring units (other body part and non-body object). They estimated how many units would fit in a perceived size of body segments and the whole body. The patterns of length and volume misperception across judged segments were determined as their perceived size proportional to their actual size. The pattern of volume misperception paints the representation of 3D body proportions resembling those of a somatosensory homunculus. The body parts with a smaller actual surface area relative to their volume were underestimated more. There was a tendency for body parts underestimated in volume to be overestimated in length. Perceived body proportions thus changed as a function of judgement type while showing a similarity in magnitude of the absolute estimation error, be it an underestimation of volume or overestimation of length. The main contribution of this study is assessing the body image as a 3D body representation, and thus extending beyond the conventional ‘allocentric’ focus to include the body on the inside. Our findings highlight the value of studying the perceptual distortions “at the baseline”, i.e. in healthy population, so as to advance the understanding of the nature of perceptual distortions in clinical conditions.
Abstract: We experience our body as a 3D, volumetric object in the world. Measures of our conscious body image, in contrast, have investigated the perception of body size along one or two dimensions at a time. There is, thus, a discrepancy between existing methods for measuring body image and our subjective experience of having 3D body. Here we assessed in a sample of healthy adults the perception of body size in terms of its 1D length and 3D volume. Participants were randomly assigned to two groups using different measuring units (other body part and non-body object). They estimated how many units would fit in a perceived size of body segments and the whole body. The patterns of length and volume misperception across judged segments were determined as their perceived size proportional to their actual size. The pattern of volume misperception paints the representation of 3D body proportions resembling those of a somatosensory homunculus. The body parts with a smaller actual surface area relative to their volume were underestimated more. There was a tendency for body parts underestimated in volume to be overestimated in length. Perceived body proportions thus changed as a function of judgement type while showing a similarity in magnitude of the absolute estimation error, be it an underestimation of volume or overestimation of length. The main contribution of this study is assessing the body image as a 3D body representation, and thus extending beyond the conventional ‘allocentric’ focus to include the body on the inside. Our findings highlight the value of studying the perceptual distortions “at the baseline”, i.e. in healthy population, so as to advance the understanding of the nature of perceptual distortions in clinical conditions.
Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering have become widely accepted & frequently cited; such simple quantitative estimates are misleading & potentially meaningless without serious qualification
Seli, Paul, Roger E. Beaty, James A. Cheyne, Daniel Smilek, and Daniel L. Schacter. 2018. “How Pervasive Is Mind Wandering, Really?.” PsyArXiv. February 26. doi:10.31234/osf.io/9pruj
Abstract: Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering (MW) (Killingsworth & Gilbert, 2010; Kane et al. 2007) have become widely accepted and frequently cited. While acknowledging attention to be inconstant and wavering, and MW to be ubiquitous, we argue and present evidence that such simple quantitative estimates are misleading and potentially meaningless without serious qualification. MW estimates requiring dichotomous judgments of inner experience rely on questionable assumptions about how such judgments are made and the resulting data do not permit straightforward interpretations. We present evidence that estimates of daily-life MW vary dramatically depending on response options provided. Offering participants a range of options in estimating task engagement yielded variable MW estimates, from approximately 60% to 10%, depending on assumptions made about how observers make introspective judgments about their MW experiences and how they understand what it means to be on- or off-task.
Abstract: Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering (MW) (Killingsworth & Gilbert, 2010; Kane et al. 2007) have become widely accepted and frequently cited. While acknowledging attention to be inconstant and wavering, and MW to be ubiquitous, we argue and present evidence that such simple quantitative estimates are misleading and potentially meaningless without serious qualification. MW estimates requiring dichotomous judgments of inner experience rely on questionable assumptions about how such judgments are made and the resulting data do not permit straightforward interpretations. We present evidence that estimates of daily-life MW vary dramatically depending on response options provided. Offering participants a range of options in estimating task engagement yielded variable MW estimates, from approximately 60% to 10%, depending on assumptions made about how observers make introspective judgments about their MW experiences and how they understand what it means to be on- or off-task.
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain
Lee, Harin. 2018. “Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain.” PsyArXiv. November 1. doi:10.31234/osf.io/xbwfq
Abstract: The current paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of some of the recent researches on congenital amusia, demonstrating how the behavioural, brain-imaging, and genetic studies have extended our understanding of the musical mind and brain. Moreover, it discusses the gaps in the literature that needs to be addressed in future research.
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Peretz and her colleagues (2007) investigated 9 large families of amusic probands with 71 members with matched control of 10 families with 75 members. The study showed that the disorder is a defect in pitch discrimination but not timing in music, and it is heritable. While the prevalence of the disorder was only 3% among first-degree relatives of control families, 39% was present in the amusic families. In a twin study of 136 monozygotic and 148 dizygotic twin pairs, participants were asked to discriminate the wrong note in a well-known song melody, and genetic model-fitting showed that shared genes were greater determinant than shared environment with estimate of 70 to 80% heritability (Drayna, Manichaikul, de Lange, Snieder, & Spector, 2001). Likewise, some studies argue that individuals’ musicality in general are more dependent to genetic basis compared to number of practice hours in the context of musical achievement (Peretz, 2016). Even the motivation to commit more hours of practice seems to be genetically influenced. The topic of whether musicality is innate or shaped through the environment is an on-going debate.
Nevertheless, recent studies have also demonstrated that amusia can be improved through laboratory training and raises a more interesting question (Liu, Jiang, Francart, Chan, & Wong, 2017; Whiteford & Oxenham, 2017, 2018). In a study conducted by Whiteford and Oxenham (2017), 20 amusics and matched pair of controls undertook four sessions to train in pitch-discrimination task. After the training, 11 of the amusics no longer met the criteria of MBEA and one year follow up test showed that the improvement is maintained (Whiteford & Oxenham, 2018). This is controversial to the previous findings that amusia is a life-long deficit and questions the current diagnosis of MBEA and whether the disorder is influenced by genetics.
Abstract: The current paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of some of the recent researches on congenital amusia, demonstrating how the behavioural, brain-imaging, and genetic studies have extended our understanding of the musical mind and brain. Moreover, it discusses the gaps in the literature that needs to be addressed in future research.
---
Peretz and her colleagues (2007) investigated 9 large families of amusic probands with 71 members with matched control of 10 families with 75 members. The study showed that the disorder is a defect in pitch discrimination but not timing in music, and it is heritable. While the prevalence of the disorder was only 3% among first-degree relatives of control families, 39% was present in the amusic families. In a twin study of 136 monozygotic and 148 dizygotic twin pairs, participants were asked to discriminate the wrong note in a well-known song melody, and genetic model-fitting showed that shared genes were greater determinant than shared environment with estimate of 70 to 80% heritability (Drayna, Manichaikul, de Lange, Snieder, & Spector, 2001). Likewise, some studies argue that individuals’ musicality in general are more dependent to genetic basis compared to number of practice hours in the context of musical achievement (Peretz, 2016). Even the motivation to commit more hours of practice seems to be genetically influenced. The topic of whether musicality is innate or shaped through the environment is an on-going debate.
Nevertheless, recent studies have also demonstrated that amusia can be improved through laboratory training and raises a more interesting question (Liu, Jiang, Francart, Chan, & Wong, 2017; Whiteford & Oxenham, 2017, 2018). In a study conducted by Whiteford and Oxenham (2017), 20 amusics and matched pair of controls undertook four sessions to train in pitch-discrimination task. After the training, 11 of the amusics no longer met the criteria of MBEA and one year follow up test showed that the improvement is maintained (Whiteford & Oxenham, 2018). This is controversial to the previous findings that amusia is a life-long deficit and questions the current diagnosis of MBEA and whether the disorder is influenced by genetics.
Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach
Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach. Tomoki Tokuda, Junichiro Yoshimoto, Yu Shimizu, Go Okada, Masahiro Takamura, Yasumasa Okamoto, Shigeto Yamawaki & Kenji Doya. Scientific Reports, volume 8, Article number: 14082 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-32521-z
Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.
Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.
Maternal Age and Child Development: Each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with an increase in school achievement & a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems
Maternal Age and Child Development. Greg J. Duncan, Kenneth T. H. Lee, Maria Rosales-Rueda, Ariel Kalil. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0730-3
Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.
Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement
Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.
Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement
Gay females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on gay males
Subjective Well-being and Partnership Dynamics: Are Same-Sex Relationships Different? Shuai Chen, Jan C. van Ours. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0725-0
Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.
Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.
Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Almost.
Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Carlos Hernández Blasi, Laura Mondéjar. Evolutionary Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704918808864
Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.
Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology
Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.
Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology
Hot Hand Fallacy & Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Miller, Joshua B., and Adam Sanjurjo. 2018. “A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified.” OSF Preprints. November 1. doi:10.31219/osf.io/pj79r
Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Locked-in individuals do not experience the anguish and turmoil that this horrifying situation would lead observers to expect
Phenomenology of the Locked-In Syndrome: an Overview and Some Suggestions. Fernando Vidal. Neuroethics, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12152-018-9388-1
Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.
Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)
Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html
Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.
Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)
Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html
locked-in patients are not particularly distressed by their huge behavioral limitations [...] the emotional balance is shifted toward positive emotions
Forecasting tournaments & epistemic humility: Turning polarized beliefs to nuanced probability judgments, incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, depolarizing debates
Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.021
Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.
Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.
There was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity & the three well-being measures; they discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice & divorce
Verbakel, Ellen, and Christiaan W. S. Monden. 2018. “Higher Well-being with Similar Partner? Testing the Similarity Hypothesis for Socio-demographic Characteristics.” SocArXiv. July 5. doi:10.31235/osf.io/ahwn6
Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.
Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.
Future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain—is associated with the inclination to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, & experience positive emotions
Look into the crystal ball: Can vivid images of the future enhance physical health? Simon A Moss et al. Journal of Health Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105316669582
Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.
Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking
Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.
Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking
People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information; some people do it as mementos to cue autobiographical information
People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information. Robbie J. Taylor & Maryanne Garry. Memory, https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2018.1539499
ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.
KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought
ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.
KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought
We perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource; there is a limited amount of good luck to get, and if another is lucky, he is robbing us
Marciano, Deborah, Eden Krispin, Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde, and Leon Deouell. 2018. “Limited Resources or Limited Luck? Why People Perceive an Illusory Negative Correlation Between the Outcomes of Choice Options Despite Unequivocal Evidence for Independence.” PsyArXiv. October 30. doi:10.31234/osf.io/6rkwd
Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.
Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.
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