Self-curiosity, the psychology-drive to explore one's inner functioning, is borne out of dissatisfaction with one’s own psychological world

Self-curiosity: Definition and measurement. Filippo Aschieri, Ilaria Durosini & Justin Dean Smith. Self and Identity, https://doi.org/10.1080/15298868.2018.1543728

ABSTRACT: This article frames self-curiosity – the curiosity that people have about their inner world – within the overarching construct of curiosity and describes its psychological correlates identified in the empirical literature. The construct of self-curiosity is defined as one’s tendency and interest in exploring their inner functioning. It can be assessed through self-report on the Self-Curiosity Attitude-Interest Scale (SCAI), which comprises two positively correlated factors: (1) Attitude toward Self-Curiosity and (2) Interest in Increasing Knowledge of Self. Research provides evidence of the nomological network of self-curiosity, its relationship with other personality traits, and how it varies among different levels of intelligence, between cultures, and across stages of life development. The principal results on self-curiosity are summarized and current research directions are discussed.

KEYWORDS: Self-curiosity, curiosity about self, curiosity, self, psychological assessment

Harm, even when it appears to be unintentional, may augment mind perception for robotic & nearly human entities, at least as long as it is perceived to elicit pain

Avatars in Pain: Visible Harm Enhances Mind Perception in Humans and Robots. Aleksandra Swiderska, Dennis Küster. Perception, https://doi.org/10.1177/0301006618809919

Abstract: Previous research has shown that when people read vignettes about the infliction of harm upon an entity appearing to have no more than a liminal mind, their attributions of mind to that entity increased. Currently, we investigated if the presence of a facial wound enhanced the perception of mental capacities (experience and agency) in response to images of robotic and human-like avatars, compared with unharmed avatars. The results revealed that harmed versions of both robotic and human-like avatars were imbued with mind to a higher degree, irrespective of the baseline level of mind attributed to their unharmed counterparts. Perceptions of capacity for pain mediated attributions of experience, while both pain and empathy mediated attributions of abilities linked to agency. The findings suggest that harm, even when it appears to have been inflicted unintentionally, may augment mind perception for robotic as well as for nearly human entities, at least as long as it is perceived to elicit pain.

Keywords: mind perception, pain, empathy, harm, robots, anthropomorphism

Google, Tell Me. Is He Gay? Masculinity, Homophobia, and Gendered Anxieties in Google Search Queries About Sexuality: Many less queries about sisters, daughters, wives, girlfriends

Mishel, Emma, Tristan Bridges, and Mònica L. Caudillo. 2018. “Google, Tell Me. Is He Gay?: Masculinity, Homophobia, and Gendered Anxieties in Google Search Queries About Sexuality.” SocArXiv. November 7. doi:10.31235/osf.io/4se75

Abstract: How can we really know how accepting people are of same-sex sexual identities? Responses in surveys and interviews are prone to social desirability bias. In this article, we offer a new proxy for this concern: the relative prevalence of Google search queries demonstrating concern over gay/lesbian sexual identities. Theories of gender have long suggested a strong relationship between masculinity and heterosexuality. Likewise, sociological research shows a consistent pattern of femininity being devalued culturally, particularly when enacted by boys and men. And, scholarship on the relationship between gender and sexuality suggests that boys’ and men’s heterosexuality is more precarious compared to that of girls and women. Using Google Trends analysis, we illustrate what these theories posit on a larger scale than previous research has been able to establish. Specifically, we show that gender-specific Google search queries concerned with the status of individuals as gay/lesbian show patterned bias toward masculine searches. We put these search data into context by comparing search frequencies with other popular searches associated with the gender-specific statuses we analyze, and argue that these data offer a new kind of support for three interrelated theories of gender and sexual identity and inequality.

Both extreme political attitudes, albeit more pronounced for right/conservative than for left/liberal attitude, are associated with higher average offspring number compared to intermediate attitudes

Political attitude and fertility: Is there a selection for the political extreme? Martin Fieder, Susanne Huber. Front. Psychol. | doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02343

Abstract: There is growing evidence that human ideology as well as social and political attitudes also have a genetic basis. In case of some genetic predisposition of political attitude, an association with fertility would be a hint of potential selection on political ideology. We therefore investigated on the basis of men and women that have completed, respectively, almost completed reproduction, of three different data sets (the World Value Survey 1981-2014 covering a wide range of countries and developmental levels, n = 152,380, the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe of 2005, n = 65,912, and the General Social Survey of the USA 1972-2014, n ~ 6200) whether political attitude is associated with number of children.
Overall, in the world wide survey, both extreme political attitudes, albeit more pronounced for right/conservative than for left/liberal attitude, are associated with higher average offspring number compared to intermediate attitudes. If countries are analyzed separately, however, the picture is inconsistent, and in most countries, the association is non-significant. In the European and the US-survey, only the political right is associated with above average number of children. The time series of US data from 1972 to 2014 shows that at least in the US-sample, this pattern emerged during the 1990s: in the 1970s and 1980s, also in the US-sample both political extremes had a reproductive advantage, which vanished for left wing individuals during the 1990s.
From an evolutionary perspective, we are not able to draw final conclusions as the association between political attitude and reproduction varies across countries and time. Nonetheless, the overall pattern suggests that in human evolutionary history, both left and right political attitudes may have conveyed fitness benefits so that both attitudes have been kept in the population.

Keywords: evolution, Number of children, political attitude, Behavior Genetics, Liberal - Conservative

LGBT Adolescents: Attempts by parents/caregivers or being sent to therapists & religious leaders for "conversion" are linked to depression, suicidal thoughts, suicidal attempts, less educational attainment, & less weekly income

Parent-Initiated Sexual Orientation Change Efforts With LGBT Adolescents: Implications for Young Adult Mental Health and Adjustment. Caitlin Ryan et al. Journal of Homosexuality, https://doi.org/10.1080/00918369.2018.1538407

ABSTRACT: Studies of adults who experienced sexual orientation change efforts (SOCE) have documented a range of health risks. To date, there is little research on SOCE among adolescents and no known studies of parents’ role related to SOCE with adolescents. In a cross-sectional study of 245 LGBT White and Latino young adults (ages 21–25), we measured parent-initiated SOCE during adolescence and its relationship to mental health and adjustment in young adulthood. Measures include being sent to therapists and religious leaders for conversion interventions as well as parental/caregiver efforts to change their child’s sexual orientation during adolescence. Attempts by parents/caregivers and being sent to therapists and religious leaders for conversion interventions were associated with depression, suicidal thoughts, suicidal attempts, less educational attainment, and less weekly income. Associations between SOCE, health, and adjustment were much stronger and more frequent for those reporting both attempts by parents and being sent to therapists and religious leaders, underscoring the need for parental education and guidance.

KEYWORDS: Sexual orientation, LGBT youth, reparative therapy, conversion therapy, sexual orientation change efforts, suicidality, depression

Women using contraceptives presented increased frequency of mind wandering when compared to naturally cycling women and & who did not differ between each other; the three groups did not differ in terms of the nature of mind wandering

Increased frequency of mind wandering in healthy women using oral contraceptives. Catherine Raymond et al. Psychoneuroendocrinology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2018.11.005

Highlights
•    Women using oral contraceptives (OC) present increased frequency of mind wandering compared to naturally cycling women and men.
•    OC use is not associated with different nature (positive or negative) of mind wandering.
•    Mind wandering is associated with depressive symptoms.

Abstract: Oral contraceptive (OC) is the most common type of contraceptive method used in industrialized countries. A recent epidemiological study showed that OC use was associated with the onset of depression in young women. Mind wandering, a cognitive process associated with spontaneous thoughts unrelated to the task at-hand, has previously been associated with depressive thinking. Consequently, mind wandering might be a precursor for cognitive vulnerability in individuals who are at-risk for mood disorders. The purpose of this study was to examine the frequency and nature of mind wandering in women using OC in comparison to two control groups: naturally cycling women and men. We recruited 71 participants (28 women currently using OC, 14 naturally cycling women in the luteal phase of their menstrual cycle and 29 men) aged between 18 and 35 years, and measured the frequency and nature (guilt/fear oriented and positive) of mind wandering using the short version of the Imaginal Process Inventory. In all analyses, we controlled for depressive symptoms to delineate the unique association between OC use and mind wandering. We also measured estradiol, progesterone and testosterone to confirm expected group differences in sex hormones concentrations. Results show that women using OC presented increased frequency of mind wandering when compared to naturally cycling women and men who did not differ between each other. The three groups did not differ in terms of the nature of mind wandering. These results show that OC use is associated with increased frequency of mind wandering and suggest that the association between OC use and dysphoric mood described in previous studies may be partially explained by the impact of OC use on cognitive processes underlying mind wandering.

Robust effects of religiosity on adolescent depression that are stronger for the most depressed; these effects are not driven by the school social context; religiosity buffers against stressors in ways that school activities & friendships do not

Religion and Depression in Adolescence. Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, Sriya Iyer, Anwen Zhang. The University of Chicago 2018. Preprint, DOI: 10.1086/701425

Abstract: Depression is the leading cause of illness and disability in adolescence. Many studies show a correlation between religiosity and mental health, yet the question remains whether the relationship is causal. We exploit within-school variation in adolescents’ peers to deal with selection into religiosity. We find robust effects of religiosity on depression that are stronger for the most depressed. These effects are not driven by the school social context; depression spreads among close friends rather than through broader peer groups that affect religiosity. Exploration of mechanisms suggests that religiosity buffers against stressors in ways that school activities and friendships do not.

Are Women More Likely than Men Are to Care Excessively about Maintaining Positive Social Relationships? They are, but gender difference was significantly smaller in collectivist countries

Are Women More Likely than Men Are to Care Excessively about Maintaining Positive Social Relationships? A Meta-Analytic Review of the Gender Difference in Sociotropy. Kaite Yang, Joan S. Girgus. Sex Roles, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11199-018-0980-y

Abstract: Sociotropy is defined as the tendency to overemphasize maintaining positive social relationships (Beck 1983). Although the stereotype that women care more about interpersonal relationships than men do is well-documented (Cross and Madson 1997), the literature provides mixed support as to whether women are more sociotropic than men are. This is important to establish because sociotropy consistently correlates positively with depression (Robins et al. 1994) and thus a gender difference in sociotropy could contribute to the well-documented gender difference in depression (Girgus and Nolen-Hoeksema 2006). The present meta-analysis asks whether the gender difference in sociotropy exists, and if so, at what magnitude, by aggregating 108 independent effect sizes from 90 papers (n = 30,372 participants). The average weighted effect size of the gender difference was d = .34, with women scoring higher than men on sociotropy. Culture was a significant moderator: The gender difference in sociotropy was significantly smaller in research from collectivist countries, where interpersonal harmony and cooperation are emphasized for both genders, than in research from individualistic countries, where men are supposed to be independent and agentic and women are supposed to be communal and concerned with relationships. Further research is needed to explore the development of this gender difference and its relationship to the gender difference in depression.

Adolescents have unfavorable opinions of adolescents who use e-cigarettes: Unattractive, trashy, immature, disgusting, and inconsiderate

Adolescents have unfavorable opinions of adolescents who use e-cigarettes. Karma McKelvey, Lucy Popova, Jessica K. Pepper, Noel T. Brewer, Bonnie Halpern-Felsher. PLOS One, Nov 07, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206352

Abstract

Introduction: While evidence suggests positive opinions of smokers are associated with tobacco use, research exploring adolescents’ opinions of e-cigarette users is nascent. We hypothesized that adolescents harbor positive opinions of e-cigarette users, and that these opinions will be more positive among adolescents willing to try or who have used e-cigarettes.

Methods: Participants were 578 U.S. adolescents (ages 14 to 20) recruited from ten California schools. An online survey assessed their attitudes toward and opinions of adolescents who use e-cigarettes in 2015–2016. Analyses examined whether these variables were associated with willingness to try and use (ever vs. never) of e-cigarettes.

Results: The majority (61%) of participants had negative overall opinions toward adolescent e-cigarette users. Few participants ascribed positive traits (i.e., sexy, cool, clean, smart, and healthy) to e-cigarette users. Participants who were willing to try or had used e-cigarettes endorsed positive traits more than those unwilling to try and never-users (all p < .01). Participants sometimes endorsed negative traits (i.e., unattractive, trashy, immature, disgusting, and inconsiderate) to describe e-cigarette users. Unwilling and never-users viewed negative traits as more descriptive of e-cigarette users than willing or ever-users (all p < .01).

Conclusions: Adolescents generally had somewhat negative opinions of other adolescents who use e-cigarettes. Building on adolescents’ negativity toward adolescent e-cigarette users may be a productive direction for prevention efforts, and clinicians can play an important role by keeping apprised of the products their adolescent patients are using and providing information on health effects to support negative opinions or dissuade formation of more positive ones.

Digital Screen Time and Pediatric Sleep: On its own, has little practical effect on pediatric sleep

Digital Screen Time and Pediatric Sleep: Evidence from a Preregistered Cohort Study. Andrew K. Przybylski. Journal of Pediatrics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpeds.2018.09.054

Objectives: To determine the extent to which time spent with digital devices predicts meaningful variability in pediatric sleep.

Study design: Following a preregistered analysis plan, data from a sample of American children (n = 50 212) derived from the 2016 National Survey of Children's Health were analyzed. Models adjusted for child-, caregiver-, household-, and community-level covariates to estimate the potential effects of digital screen use.

Results: Each hour devoted to digital screens was associated with 3-8 fewer minutes of nightly sleep and significantly lower levels of sleep consistency. Furthermore, those children who complied with 2010 and 2016 American Academy of Pediatrics guidance on screen time limits reported between 20 and 26 more minutes, respectively, of nightly sleep. However, links between digital screen time and pediatric sleep outcomes were modest, accounting for less than 1.9% of observed variability in sleep outcomes.

Conclusions: Digital screen time, on its own, has little practical effect on pediatric sleep. Contextual factors surrounding screen time exert a more pronounced influence on pediatric sleep compared to screen time itself. These findings provide an empirically robust template for those investigating the digital displacement hypothesis as well as informing policy-making.

Keywords: digital displacement hypothesis, digital screens, pediatric sleep

High-level language processing regions are not engaged in action observation or imitation

High-level language processing regions are not engaged in action observation or imitation. Brianna L. Pritchett, Caitlyn Hoeflin, Kami Koldewyn, Eyal Dechter, and Evelina Fedorenko. Journal of Neurophysiology, https://doi.org/10.1152/jn.00222.2018

Abstract: A set of left frontal, temporal, and parietal brain regions respond robustly during language comprehension and production (e.g., Fedorenko E, Hsieh PJ, Nieto-Castañón A, Whitfield-Gabrieli S, Kanwisher N. J Neurophysiol 104: 1177–1194, 2010; Menenti L, Gierhan SM, Segaert K, Hagoort P. Psychol Sci 22: 1173–1182, 2011). These regions have been further shown to be selective for language relative to other cognitive processes, including arithmetic, aspects of executive function, and music perception (e.g., Fedorenko E, Behr MK, Kanwisher N. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108: 16428–16433, 2011; Monti MM, Osherson DN. Brain Res 1428: 33–42, 2012). However, one claim about overlap between language and nonlinguistic cognition remains prominent. In particular, some have argued that language processing shares computational demands with action observation and/or execution (e.g., Rizzolatti G, Arbib MA. Trends Neurosci 21: 188–194, 1998; Koechlin E, Jubault T. Neuron 50: 963–974, 2006; Tettamanti M, Weniger D. Cortex 42: 491–494, 2006). However, the evidence for these claims is indirect, based on observing activation for language and action tasks within the same broad anatomical areas (e.g., on the lateral surface of the left frontal lobe). To test whether language indeed shares machinery with action observation/execution, we examined the responses of language brain regions, defined functionally in each individual participant (Fedorenko E, Hsieh PJ, Nieto-Castañón A, Whitfield-Gabrieli S, Kanwisher N. J Neurophysiol 104: 1177–1194, 2010) to action observation (experiments 1, 2, and 3a) and action imitation (experiment 3b). With the exception of the language region in the angular gyrus, all language regions, including those in the inferior frontal gyrus (within “Broca’s area”), showed little or no response during action observation/imitation. These results add to the growing body of literature suggesting that high-level language regions are highly selective for language processing (see Fedorenko E, Varley R. Ann NY Acad Sci 1369: 132–153, 2016 for a review).

NEW & NOTEWORTHY: Many have argued for overlap in the machinery used to interpret language and others’ actions, either because action observation was a precursor to linguistic communication or because both require interpreting hierarchically-structured stimuli. However, existing evidence is indirect, relying on group analyses or reverse inference. We examined responses to action observation in language regions defined functionally in individual participants and found no response. Thus language comprehension and action observation recruit distinct circuits in the modern brain.

Bullying victimization may causally impact children’s wellbeing (not much) in the short-term, especially anxiety & depression levels; with time there is reduction of adverse effects, which highlights the potential for resilience

Schoeler, T., Duncan, L., Cecil, C., Ploubidis, G. B., & Pingault, J-B. (Accepted/In press in APA's Psychological Bulletin). Quasi-Experimental evidence on short and long-term consequences of bullying victimization: A meta-analysis. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/quasiexperimental-evidence-on-short-and-longterm-consequences-of-bullying-victimization-a-metaanalysis(80472578-8c16-425f-ad79-61533a0b414f).html

Abstract: Exposure to bullying victimization is associated with a wide-range of short and long-term adverse outcomes. However, the extent to which these associations reflect a causal influence of bullying victimization remains disputed. Here, we aimed to provide the most stringent evidence regarding the consequences of bullying victimization by meta-analysing all relevant Quasi-Experimental (QE) studies. Multilevel random effects models and meta-regression were employed to (i) estimate the pooled QE-adjusted effect size (Cohen d) for bullying victimization on outcomes and to (ii) evaluate potential sources of heterogeneity. A total of 16 studies were included. We derived 101 QE-estimates from three different methods (twin design, fixed effects analysis, and propensity score matching) for three pools of outcomes (internalizing symptoms, externalizing symptoms, academic difficulties). QE-adjusted effects were small for internalizing symptoms (dadjusted=0.27, 95%CI 0.05;0.49), and smaller for externalizing symptoms (dadjusted=0.15, 95%CI 0.10;0.21) and academic difficulties (dadjusted=0.10, 95%CI 0.06; 0.13). Accounting for a shared rater effect between the exposure and the outcome further reduced the effect for internalizing (dnon-shared rater=0.14, 95%CI 0.05;0.23) and externalizing symptoms (dnon-shared rater=0.06, 95%CI 0.01;0.11). Finally, the adverse effects declined on the long-term, most markedly for internalizing symptoms (dlong-term=0.06, 95%CI -0.01;0.13). Based on the most stringent evidence available to date, findings indicate that bullying victimization may causally impact children’s wellbeing in the short-term, especially anxiety and depression levels. The reduction of adverse effects over time highlights the potential for resilience in individuals who have experienced bullying. Secondary preventive interventions in bullied children should therefore focus on modifiable factors that lead to resilience and address children's pre-existing vulnerabilities.

A retrieval-specific mechanism of adaptive forgetting in the mammalian brain

A retrieval-specific mechanism of adaptive forgetting in the mammalian brain. Pedro Bekinschtein, Noelia V. Weisstaub, Francisco Gallo, Maria Renner & Michael C. Anderson. Nature Communications, volume 9, Article number: 4660 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07128-7

Abstract: Forgetting is a ubiquitous phenomenon that is actively promoted in many species. How and whether organisms’ behavioral goals drive which memories are actively forgotten is unknown. Here we show that processes essential to controlling goal-directed behavior trigger active forgetting of distracting memories that interfere with behavioral goals. When rats need to retrieve particular memories to guide exploration, it reduces later retention of other memories encoded in that environment. As with humans, this retrieval-induced forgetting is competition-dependent, cue-independent and reliant on prefrontal control: Silencing the medial prefrontal cortex with muscimol abolishes the effect. cFos imaging reveals that prefrontal control demands decline over repeated retrievals as competing memories are forgotten successfully, revealing a key adaptive benefit of forgetting. Occurring in 88% of the rats studied, this finding establishes a robust model of how adaptive forgetting harmonizes memory with behavioral demands, permitting isolation of its circuit, cellular and molecular mechanisms.

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper: 23/25 is less than 1, not more

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper. Nicholas Lewis. Nov 7 2018. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/A-major-problem-with-the-Resplandy-et-al.-ocean-heat-uptake-paper.pdf

[Update Sep 26 2019: Paper was retracted at the journal's request. Check at the end.]

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Excerpts:

On November 1st there was extensive coverage in the mainstream media1 and online2 of a paper just published in the prestigious journal Nature. The article,3 by Laure Resplandy of Princeton University, Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography and eight other authors, used a novel method to estimate heat uptake by the ocean over the period 1991–2016 and came up with an atypically high value.4 The press release 5 accompanying the Resplandy et al. paper was entitled "Earth's oceans have absorbed 60 percent more heat per year than previously thought",6 and said that this suggested that Earth is more sensitive to fossil-fuel emissions than previously thought.

I was asked for my thoughts on the Resplandy paper as soon as it obtained media coverage. Most commentators appear to have been content to rely on what was said in the press release. However, being a scientist, I thought it appropriate to read the paper itself, and if possible look at its data, before forming a view.


Trend estimates

The method used by Resplandy et al. was novel, and certainly worthy of publication. The authors start with observed changes in 'atmospheric potential oxygen' (ΔAPOOBS).7 In their model, one component of this change (ΔAPOClimate) is due to warming of the oceans, and they derived an estimate of its value by calculating values for the other components.8 A simple conversion factor then allows them to convert the trend in ΔAPOClimate into an estimate of ocean heat uptake (the trend in ocean heat content).

On page 1 they say:

                   From equation (1), we thereby find that ΔAPOClimate = 23.20 ± 12.20 per meg, corresponding to a least squares linear trend of +1.16 ± 0.15 per meg per year 9

A quick bit of mental arithmetic indicated that a change of 23.2 between 1991 and 2016 represented an annual rate of approximately 0.9, well below their 1.16 value. As that seemed surprising, I extracted the annual ΔAPO best-estimate values and uncertainties from the paper's Extended Data Table 410 and computed the 1991–2016 least squares linear fit trend in the ΔAPOClimate values. The trend was 0.88, not 1.16, per meg per year, implying an ocean heat uptake estimate of 10.1 ZJ per year,11 well below the estimate in the paper of 13.3 ZJ per year.12

Resplandy et al. derive ΔAPOClimate from estimates of ΔAPOOBS and of its other components, ΔAPOFF, ΔAPOCant, and ΔAPOAtmD, using – rearranging their equation (1):

            ΔAPOClimate = ΔAPOOBS − ΔAPOFF − ΔAPOCant − ΔAPOAtmD

I derived the same best estimate trend when I allowed for uncertainty in each of the components of ΔAPOOBS, in the way that Resplandy et al.'s Methods description appears to indicate,13 so my simple initial method of trend estimation does not explain the discrepancy.

[...]

I wanted to make sure that I had not overlooked something in my calculations, so later on November 1st I emailed Laure Resplandy querying the ΔAPOClimate trend figure in her paper and asking for her to look into the difference in our trend estimates as a matter of urgency, explaining that in view of the media coverage of the paper I was contemplating web-publishing a comment on it within a matter of days. To date I have had no substantive response from her, despite subsequently sending a further email containing the key analysis sections from a draft of this article.

[...]

Uncertainty analysis

I now turn to the uncertainty analysis in the paper.16 Strangely, the Resplandy et al. paper has two different values for the uncertainty in the results. On page 1 they give the ΔAPOClimate trend (in per meg per year) as 1.16 ± 0.15. But on page 2 they say it is 1.16 ± 0.18. In the Methods section they go back to 1.16 ± 0.15. Probably the ± 0.18 figure is a typographical error. 17

It is amazing, uncertainty in page 1 is 0.15, then in page two is 0.18.

And 23.20/26 = 1.16 (?!?!?!).

Ten authors and at least two reviewers see nothing... Is there not a single journalist able to read the first page of a paper?


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Notes:

1 Examples are: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46046067 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/31/climate/ocean-temperatures-hotter.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-oceans-are-heating-up-faster-than-expected/ https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/01/australia/ocean-warming-report-intl/index.html http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-oceans-study-climate-change-20181031-story.html https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/11/01/oceans-more-heat-study-global-warming-climate-change-nature/1843074002/ https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-ocean-temperature-heat-fossil-fuels-science-research-a8612796.html
2 Examples are: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/11/unforced-variations-nov-2018/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/02/friday-funny-at-long-last-kevin-trenberths-missing-heat-may-have-been-found-repeat-may-have-been/ https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/that-new-ocean-heat-content-estimate/ https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/11/03/new-ocean-heat-content-analysis/ https://twitter.com/Knutti_ETH/status/1057960390502608901
3 L. Resplandy, R. F. Keeling, Y. Eddebbar, M. K. Brooks, R. Wang, L. Bopp, M. C. Long, J. P. Dunne, W. Koeve & A. Oschlies, 2018: Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition. Nature, 563, 105-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0651-8 ("Resplandy et al.")
4 A value of 13.3 zetta Joules (ZJ) per year, or 0.83 Watts per square metre of the Earth's surface. ZJ is the symbol for zetta Joules; 1 ZJ = 1021 J. 1 ZJ per year = 0.0621 Watts per square metre (W/m2 or Wm–2) of the Earth's surface.
5 http://web.archive.org/web/20181103021900/https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/11/01/earths-oceans-have-absorbed-60-percent-more-heat-year-previously-thought
6 However that is in comparison with an IPCC estimate for 1993–2010; estimates for 1991–2016 are higher.
7 ΔAPO is the change in 'atmospheric potential oxygen', the overall level of which has been observationally measured since 1991 (ΔAPOOBS). It is the sum of the atmospheric concentrations of O2 and of CO2 weighted respectively 1⤬ and 1.1⤬.
8 The authors break the observed change in ΔAPOOBS into four components, ΔAPOFF, ΔAPOCant, ΔAPOAtmD and ΔAPOClimate, deriving the last component (which is related to ocean warming) by deducting estimates of the other three components from ΔAPOOBS. ΔAPOFF is the decrease in APO caused by industrial processes (fossil-fuel burning and cement production). ΔAPOCant accounts for the oceanic uptake of excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2. ΔAPOAtmD accounts for air–sea exchanges driven by ocean fertilization from anthropogenic aerosol deposition.
9 1 per meg literally means 1 part per million (1 ppm), however 'per meg' and 'ppm' are defined differently in relation to atmospheric concentrations and are not identical units.
10 The same data is available in Excel format from a link on Nature's website, as "Source Data Fig. 2".
11 Dividing by their conversion factor of 0.087 ± 0.003 per meg per ZJ. ZJ is the symbol for zetta Joules; 1 ZJ = 1021 Joules.
12 I used ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with an intercept. That is the standard form of least squares regression for estimating a trend. Resplandy et al. show all APO variables as changes from a baseline of zero in 1991, but that is an arbitrary choice and would not justify forcing the regression fit to be zero in 1991 (by not using an intercept term). Doing so would not in any event raise the ΔAPOClimate estimated trend to the level given by Resplandy et al.
13 I took a large number of sets of samples for each of the years 1991 to 2016 from the applicable error distributions of ΔAPOOBS, ΔAPOFF, ΔAPOCant, and ΔAPOAtmD given in Extended Data Table 4, and calculated all the corresponding sample values of ΔAPOClimate using equation (1). I then computed the ordinary least squares linear trend for each set of 1991–2016 sampled values of ΔAPOClimate, and calculated the mean and standard deviation of the trends.
14 Laure Resplandy was responsible for directing the analysis of the datasets and models.
15 This fact was spotted by Frank Bosse, with whom I discussed the apparent error in the Resplandy et al. ΔAPOClimate trend.
16 All uncertainty values in the paper are ± 1 sigma (1 standard deviation). Errors are presumably assumed to be Normally distributed, as no other distributions are specified.
17 The statement in their Methods that "ΔCant′ cannot be derived from observations and was estimated at 0.05 Pg C yr−1, equivalent to a trend of +0.2 per meg−1, using model simulations" is presumably also a typographical error. The correct value appears to be +0.12 per meg yr−1, as stated elsewhere in Methods and in Extended Data Table 3.
18 On that basis , I can replicate the Extended Data Table 4 ΔAPOOBS uncertainty time series values within ±0.1. Note that all the values in that table, although given to two decimal places, appear to be rounded to one decimal place.
19 The overall uncertainties given in Table 3 in Resplandy et al.'s source paper for its errors in ΔAPOOBS support my analysis.
20 When using the Resplandy et al. Extended Data Table 4 ΔAPOClimate total uncertainty time series and assuming that each year's errors are independent, despite the trend and scale systematic errors being their largest component, the estimated ΔAPOClimate uncertainty reduces to between ± 0.20 and ± 0.21 per meg yr−1. That is still slightly higher than the ± 0.15 and ± 0.18 per meg yr−1 values given in the paper. The reason for the small remaining difference is unclear.
21 It seems likely that the same non-independence over time issue largely or wholly applies to errors in ΔAPOCant, ΔAPOAtmD and probably ΔAPOFF. If the errors in ΔAPOCant and ΔAPOAtmD (but not in ΔAPOFF)
were also treated as perfectly correlated between years, the ΔAPOClimate trend uncertainty would be ± 0.60 per meg yr−1.
22 Lewis, N., and Curry, J., 2018: The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 31(15), 6051-6071.
23 Even if the 2007–2016 ocean heat uptake estimate used in Lewis and Curry (2018) were increased by 3 ZJ yr−1 to match Resplandy et al.'s (incorrect) estimate for 1991–2016, the 1.05°C 5% lower bound of its HadCRUT4v5-based estimate of effective/equilibrium climate sensitivity would only increase to 1.15°C. Moreover, Resplandy et al.'s ΔAPOClimate data imply have a lower ocean heat uptake estimate for 2007–2016 than they do for 1991–2016.
24 See the IPCC's 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C


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Update Sep 26 2019: Paper was retracted at the journal's request.

Retraction Note: Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition. L. Resplandy et al. Nature 573, 614 (2019). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1585-5

State AGs for Rent: Privately funded litigators wield state police power

State AGs for Rent: Privately funded litigators wield state police power. Wall Street Journal, Nov 7 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-ags-for-rent-1541549567

With the courts and Trump Administration rolling back federal climate regulation, green activists have turned to the states. But there’s a troubling ethical twist: Instead of merely lobbying, activists are placing employees in Attorneys General offices in dubious private-public condominiums.

Consider a remarkable arrangement brokered by the NYU Law School’s State Energy and Environmental Impact Center to fund legal services for state AGs. The group was launched in August 2017 to advance a liberal climate and energy agenda, courtesy of a $6 million grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies, which also financed the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign.

In August 2017 the NYU outfit emailed then-New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office, offering to cover the salary and benefits of “special assistant attorneys general,” pending an application from the office that demonstrated how the new attorneys would be used. These privately funded staffers would work out of an AG’s office for two years and deliver quarterly progress reports to the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center.

Those progress reports would explain “the contribution that the legal fellow has made to the clean energy, climate change, and environmental initiatives” within the attorney general’s office, according to a December 2017 draft of an agreement between the Center and the New York AG obtained by Chris Horner of the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Attorneys General do sometimes bring on legal fellows or outside help to handle unique cases. But subject-matter experts aren’t in-house or chosen with specific intent to promote specific policies, according to Randy Pepple, who was chief of staff for former Washington Republican AG Rob McKenna. In the New York case, a special interest is funding staffers who could wield state law-enforcement power to punish opponents.

The State Energy and Environmental Impact Center made clear that state AG offices would only qualify for special assistant AGs if they “demonstrate a need and commitment to defending environmental values and advancing progressive clean energy, climate change, and environmental legal positions,” according to the August 2017 email to numerous AGs. Mr. Schneiderman’s office suggested in its application for the fellows that it “needs additional attorney resources to assist” in extracting compensation from fossil-fuel emitters.

That’s exactly what’s happening. The New York AG currently has two NYU fellows on staff, according to the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center.

One of the fellows, Gavin McCabe, signed off as “special assistant attorney general” on an amicus brief in June in support of New York City’s suit for damages against BP, Chevron , ConocoPhillips , Exxon Mobil , and Royal Dutch Shell for alleged climate sins. That case was thrown out in July by federal Judge John Kennan on grounds that problems arising from climate change “are not for the judiciary to ameliorate.”

The other, Matthew Eisenson, signed New York state’s suit filed last month against Exxon for allegedly misleading investors about the risks that climate-change regulations pose to its business. The free help will also make for welcome reinforcements in New York-led litigation against the Trump Administration, including a suit against the EPA for its methane regulation.

A lack of government transparency makes this arrangement especially troubling. The New York AG’s office, now run by Acting AG Barbara Underwood, declined to comment. Mr. McCabe and Mr. Eisenson could not be reached for comment by our deadline.

The State Energy and Environmental Impact Center said in a statement that the state offices it works with “has the authority consistent with applicable law and regulations to accept a Legal Fellow whose salary and benefits are provided by an outside funding source.” It added that it places workers with AGs who already have a long history of advancing the center’s energy priorities. “The work that NYU law fellows perform is directed by those AGs and not by the Center,” the Center said.

At least six state AG offices have already brought on board a special assistant attorney general, according to an August report by Mr. Horner. Besides New York, the jurisdictions include Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington and the District of Columbia. In September, Mr. Horner learned that Illinois and New Mexico have brought on special assistant AGs as well, which was confirmed by the NYU outfit.

The ethical problems here should be obvious. Private interests are leveraging the police powers of the state to pursue their political agenda, while a government official is letting private interests appear to influence enforcement decisions. None of this is reassuring about the fair administration of justice.