Who Expresses Opinions in a Hostile Online Forum Environment and When. Yu Won Oh. Mass Communication and Society, https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2019.1565785
Abstract: This study examines the issue of who tends to speak out against the tide of opinions on an online discussion forum, and which forum conditions facilitate an individual’s public expression of honest opinions. In response to the call for experimental research, this study employed simulated online forums to place participants in multifaceted hostile online discussion situations. The findings indicate that an individual’s race, issue involvement, issue knowledge, fear of isolation, and the revelation of identity influenced opinion expression online. In particular, fear of isolation, which has been pointed out as the main reason for silencing minority opinion holders, played an unexpected role as a motivator for frank expression of opinions online.
Keywords: Conditional features, experiments, hostile opinion environment, online discussion forums, opinion expression, speaking-out behavior
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Pornographic Content and Real-Life Sexual Experiences in German Students: A considerable proportion of participants had no interest to experience activities they liked in pornography, especially unconventional activities
Pornographic Content and Real-Life Sexual Experiences: Findings From a Survey of German University Students. Urszula Martyniuk, Lukasz Okolski & Arne Dekker. Journal of Sex & Marital Therapy, https://doi.org/10.1080/0092623X.2018.1531334
Abstract: The aim of this study was to explore liked pornographic content and real-life experience with the depicted sexual activities in a nationwide sample of 1,197 German university students. The results indicate that there is a positive, content-specific association. Generally, the link was stronger for less conventional (less widespread) practices. However, a considerable proportion of participants had no interest to experience activities they liked in pornography and this was especially the case for the unconventional activities. This indicates that pornography use may constitute a distinct form of sexuality and may create an “intimate space” for sexual fantasies.
Abstract: The aim of this study was to explore liked pornographic content and real-life experience with the depicted sexual activities in a nationwide sample of 1,197 German university students. The results indicate that there is a positive, content-specific association. Generally, the link was stronger for less conventional (less widespread) practices. However, a considerable proportion of participants had no interest to experience activities they liked in pornography and this was especially the case for the unconventional activities. This indicates that pornography use may constitute a distinct form of sexuality and may create an “intimate space” for sexual fantasies.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Drawings of real-world scenes during free recall reveal detailed object and spatial information in memory
Drawings of real-world scenes during free recall reveal detailed object and spatial information in memory. Wilma A. Bainbridge, Elizabeth H. Hall & Chris I. Baker. Nature Communications, volume 10, Article number: 5 (2019). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07830-6
Abstract: Understanding the content of memory is essential to teasing apart its underlying mechanisms. While recognition tests have commonly been used to probe memory, it is difficult to establish what specific content is driving performance. Here, we instead focus on free recall of real-world scenes, and quantify the content of memory using a drawing task. Participants studied 30 scenes and, after a distractor task, drew as many images in as much detail as possible from memory. The resulting memory-based drawings were scored by thousands of online observers, revealing numerous objects, few memory intrusions, and precise spatial information. Further, we find that visual saliency and meaning maps can explain aspects of memory performance and observe no relationship between recall and recognition for individual images. Our findings show that not only is it possible to quantify the content of memory during free recall, but those memories contain detailed representations of our visual experiences.
Abstract: Understanding the content of memory is essential to teasing apart its underlying mechanisms. While recognition tests have commonly been used to probe memory, it is difficult to establish what specific content is driving performance. Here, we instead focus on free recall of real-world scenes, and quantify the content of memory using a drawing task. Participants studied 30 scenes and, after a distractor task, drew as many images in as much detail as possible from memory. The resulting memory-based drawings were scored by thousands of online observers, revealing numerous objects, few memory intrusions, and precise spatial information. Further, we find that visual saliency and meaning maps can explain aspects of memory performance and observe no relationship between recall and recognition for individual images. Our findings show that not only is it possible to quantify the content of memory during free recall, but those memories contain detailed representations of our visual experiences.
We recorded in a part of the macaque area TEO that is activated more by curved surfaces than by flat surfaces at different disparities using the same stimuli
Single-cell responses to three-dimensional structure in a functionally defined patch in macaque area TEO. Amir-Mohammad Alizadeh, Ilse C. Van Dromme, and Peter Janssen. Journal of Neurophysiology, https://doi.org/10.1152/jn.00198.2018
Abstract: Both dorsal and ventral visual pathways harbor several areas sensitive to gradients of binocular disparity (i.e., higher-order disparity). Although a wealth of information exists about disparity processing in early visual (V1, V2, and V3) and end-stage areas, TE in the ventral stream, and the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) in the dorsal stream, little is known about midlevel area TEO in the ventral pathway. We recorded single-unit responses to disparity-defined curved stimuli in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activation elicited by curved surfaces compared with flat surfaces in the macaque area TEO. This fMRI activation contained a small proportion of disparity-selective neurons, with very few of them second-order disparity selective. Overall, this population of TEO neurons did not preserve its three-dimensional structure selectivity across positions in depth, indicating a lack of higher-order disparity selectivity, but showed stronger responses to flat surfaces than to curved surfaces, as predicted by the fMRI experiment. The receptive fields of the responsive TEO cells were relatively small and generally foveal. A linear support vector machine classifier showed that this population of disparity-selective TEO neurons contains reliable information about the sign of curvature and the position in depth of the stimulus.
NEW & NOTEWORTHY We recorded in a part of the macaque area TEO that is activated more by curved surfaces than by flat surfaces at different disparities using the same stimuli. In contrast to previous studies, this functional magnetic resonance imaging-defined patch did not contain a large number of higher-order disparity-selective neurons. However, a linear support vector machine could reliably classify both the sign of the disparity gradient and the position in depth of the stimuli.
Abstract: Both dorsal and ventral visual pathways harbor several areas sensitive to gradients of binocular disparity (i.e., higher-order disparity). Although a wealth of information exists about disparity processing in early visual (V1, V2, and V3) and end-stage areas, TE in the ventral stream, and the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) in the dorsal stream, little is known about midlevel area TEO in the ventral pathway. We recorded single-unit responses to disparity-defined curved stimuli in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activation elicited by curved surfaces compared with flat surfaces in the macaque area TEO. This fMRI activation contained a small proportion of disparity-selective neurons, with very few of them second-order disparity selective. Overall, this population of TEO neurons did not preserve its three-dimensional structure selectivity across positions in depth, indicating a lack of higher-order disparity selectivity, but showed stronger responses to flat surfaces than to curved surfaces, as predicted by the fMRI experiment. The receptive fields of the responsive TEO cells were relatively small and generally foveal. A linear support vector machine classifier showed that this population of disparity-selective TEO neurons contains reliable information about the sign of curvature and the position in depth of the stimulus.
NEW & NOTEWORTHY We recorded in a part of the macaque area TEO that is activated more by curved surfaces than by flat surfaces at different disparities using the same stimuli. In contrast to previous studies, this functional magnetic resonance imaging-defined patch did not contain a large number of higher-order disparity-selective neurons. However, a linear support vector machine could reliably classify both the sign of the disparity gradient and the position in depth of the stimuli.
More legislation, more violence? The impact of Dodd-Frank in Congo: Increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%
More legislation, more violence? The impact of Dodd-Frank in the DRC. Nik Stoop, Marijke Verpoorten, Peter van der Windt. PLOS, Aug 09 2018, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201783
Abstract: The Dodd Frank Act was passed by the US Congress in July 2010 and included a provision—Section 1502—that aimed to break the link between conflict and minerals in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. To date there is only one rigorous quantitative analysis that investigates the impact of Dodd-Frank on local conflict events. Looking at the short-term impact (2011–2012), it finds that the policy backfired. This study builds on a larger, more representative, dataset of mining sites and extends the time horizon by three years (2013–2015). The results indicate that the policy also backfired in the longer run, especially in areas home to gold mines. For territories with the average number of gold mines, the introduction of Dodd-Frank increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%, compared to pre-Dodd Frank averages. Delving deeper into the impact of the conflict minerals legislation is important, as President Trump suspended the legislation in February 2017 for a two-year period, ordering his administration to replace it with another policy.
Summary in https://www.cato.org/publications/research-briefs-economic-policy/more-legislation-more-violence-impact-dodd-frank
Abstract: The Dodd Frank Act was passed by the US Congress in July 2010 and included a provision—Section 1502—that aimed to break the link between conflict and minerals in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. To date there is only one rigorous quantitative analysis that investigates the impact of Dodd-Frank on local conflict events. Looking at the short-term impact (2011–2012), it finds that the policy backfired. This study builds on a larger, more representative, dataset of mining sites and extends the time horizon by three years (2013–2015). The results indicate that the policy also backfired in the longer run, especially in areas home to gold mines. For territories with the average number of gold mines, the introduction of Dodd-Frank increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%, compared to pre-Dodd Frank averages. Delving deeper into the impact of the conflict minerals legislation is important, as President Trump suspended the legislation in February 2017 for a two-year period, ordering his administration to replace it with another policy.
Summary in https://www.cato.org/publications/research-briefs-economic-policy/more-legislation-more-violence-impact-dodd-frank
Target appearance matters more for women; it matters more for impressions on youthful/attractiveness than trustworthiness or dominance dimensions; big role of racial & gender stereotypes
Xie, S. Y., Flake, J. K., & Hehman, E. (2018). Perceiver and target characteristics contribute to impression formation differently across race and gender. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000160
Abstract: Social impressions arise from characteristics of both perceivers and targets. However, empirical research in the domain of impression formation has yet to quantify the extent to which perceiver and target characteristics uniquely contribute to impressions across group boundaries (e.g., race, gender). To what extent does an impression arise from “our mind” versus “a target’s face”, and does this process differ for impressions across race and gender? We explored this question by estimating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) from cross-classified multilevel models of 188,472 face ratings from 2,230 participants (Study 1) and 219,658 ratings from 2,984 participants (Study 2). We partitioned the total variance in ratings on a trait dimension (trustworthiness, dominance, youthful/attractiveness) into variance explained by perceivers versus targets, and compared these ICCs among different groups (e.g., ratings of own- vs. other-group targets). Overarching results reveal (a) target appearance matters more for women than men, (b) target appearance matters more for impressions on youthful/attractiveness than trustworthiness or dominance dimensions, (c) differences in perceiver/target influences across race did not consistently replicate, and (d) these differences are absent in minimal groups, supporting the role of racial and gender stereotypes in driving these effects. Overall, perceiver characteristics contribute more to impressions than target appearance. Our findings disentangle the contributions of perceiver and targets to impressions and illustrate that the process of impression formation is not equal across various group boundaries.
Abstract: Social impressions arise from characteristics of both perceivers and targets. However, empirical research in the domain of impression formation has yet to quantify the extent to which perceiver and target characteristics uniquely contribute to impressions across group boundaries (e.g., race, gender). To what extent does an impression arise from “our mind” versus “a target’s face”, and does this process differ for impressions across race and gender? We explored this question by estimating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) from cross-classified multilevel models of 188,472 face ratings from 2,230 participants (Study 1) and 219,658 ratings from 2,984 participants (Study 2). We partitioned the total variance in ratings on a trait dimension (trustworthiness, dominance, youthful/attractiveness) into variance explained by perceivers versus targets, and compared these ICCs among different groups (e.g., ratings of own- vs. other-group targets). Overarching results reveal (a) target appearance matters more for women than men, (b) target appearance matters more for impressions on youthful/attractiveness than trustworthiness or dominance dimensions, (c) differences in perceiver/target influences across race did not consistently replicate, and (d) these differences are absent in minimal groups, supporting the role of racial and gender stereotypes in driving these effects. Overall, perceiver characteristics contribute more to impressions than target appearance. Our findings disentangle the contributions of perceiver and targets to impressions and illustrate that the process of impression formation is not equal across various group boundaries.
Conditioned Pain Hypersensitivity in Male Mice and Humans: Re-exposure to a context associated with pain results in pain hypersensitivity; sensitivity is only present in males, via testosterone
Male-Specific Conditioned Pain Hypersensitivity in Mice and Humans. Loren J. Martin et al. Current Biology Jan 10 2019, https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(18)31496-9?_
Highlights
•Re-exposure to a context associated with pain results in pain hypersensitivity
•Conditioned pain sensitivity is only present in males via testosterone
•The phenomenon can be demonstrated in both mice and humans
•The phenomenon is dependent on stress and blocked by zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP)
Summary: Pain memories are hypothesized to be critically involved in the transition of pain from an acute to a chronic state. To help elucidate the underlying neurobiological mechanisms of pain memory, we developed novel paradigms to study context-dependent pain hypersensitivity in mouse and human subjects, respectively. We find that both mice and people become hypersensitive to acute, thermal nociception when tested in an environment previously associated with an aversive tonic pain experience. This sensitization persisted for at least 24 hr and was only present in males of both species. In mice, context-dependent pain hypersensitivity was abolished by castrating male mice, pharmacological blockade of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, or intracerebral or intrathecal injections of zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP) known to block atypical protein kinase C (including the protein kinase Mζ isoform). In humans, men, but not women, self-reported higher levels of stress when tested in a room previously associated with tonic pain. These models provide a new, completely translatable means for studying the relationship between memory, pain, and stress.
Keywords: pain memory sex difference translation
Highlights
•Re-exposure to a context associated with pain results in pain hypersensitivity
•Conditioned pain sensitivity is only present in males via testosterone
•The phenomenon can be demonstrated in both mice and humans
•The phenomenon is dependent on stress and blocked by zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP)
Summary: Pain memories are hypothesized to be critically involved in the transition of pain from an acute to a chronic state. To help elucidate the underlying neurobiological mechanisms of pain memory, we developed novel paradigms to study context-dependent pain hypersensitivity in mouse and human subjects, respectively. We find that both mice and people become hypersensitive to acute, thermal nociception when tested in an environment previously associated with an aversive tonic pain experience. This sensitization persisted for at least 24 hr and was only present in males of both species. In mice, context-dependent pain hypersensitivity was abolished by castrating male mice, pharmacological blockade of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, or intracerebral or intrathecal injections of zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP) known to block atypical protein kinase C (including the protein kinase Mζ isoform). In humans, men, but not women, self-reported higher levels of stress when tested in a room previously associated with tonic pain. These models provide a new, completely translatable means for studying the relationship between memory, pain, and stress.
Keywords: pain memory sex difference translation
We should acknowledge online sexual expression in adults of the general population as normal and mostly positive behavior
Are Online Sexual Activities and Sexting Good for Adults’ Sexual Well-Being? Results From a National Online Survey. Nicola Döring & M. Rohangis Mohseni. International Journal of Sexual Health, https://doi.org/10.1080/19317611.2018.1491921
Abstract
Objectives: Online sexual activities (OSA) and sexting are often framed as risk behaviors in adolescents. This study investigates experiences of adults.
Methods: Based on the positive sexuality approach, the current study measured prevalence, predictors, and perceived outcomes of OSA and sexting in a national online sample of N = 1,500 participants from Germany (ages 18–85).
Results: 68% of adults reported previous involvement in OSA and 41% in sexting. Perceived positive OSA and sexting outcomes outweighed the negative.
Conclusions: Sexual health professionals should acknowledge online sexual expression in adults of the general population as normal and mostly positive behavior.
Keywords: Cybersexuality, sexting, internet, sexual health promotion, pleasure
Check also: Sex toys, sex dolls, sex robots: Our under-researched bed-fellows. N. Döring, S. Pöschl. Sexologies, Volume 27, Issue 3, July–September 2018, Pages e51-e55. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/strong-negative-effects-are-attributed.html
Abstract
Objectives: Online sexual activities (OSA) and sexting are often framed as risk behaviors in adolescents. This study investigates experiences of adults.
Methods: Based on the positive sexuality approach, the current study measured prevalence, predictors, and perceived outcomes of OSA and sexting in a national online sample of N = 1,500 participants from Germany (ages 18–85).
Results: 68% of adults reported previous involvement in OSA and 41% in sexting. Perceived positive OSA and sexting outcomes outweighed the negative.
Conclusions: Sexual health professionals should acknowledge online sexual expression in adults of the general population as normal and mostly positive behavior.
Keywords: Cybersexuality, sexting, internet, sexual health promotion, pleasure
Check also: Sex toys, sex dolls, sex robots: Our under-researched bed-fellows. N. Döring, S. Pöschl. Sexologies, Volume 27, Issue 3, July–September 2018, Pages e51-e55. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/strong-negative-effects-are-attributed.html
Deplorables: Hatred, anger, and fear are significantly but only modestly related to political intolerance; the effects of emotions on intolerance are not consistently stronger among the unsophisticated
Gibson, James & Claassen, Christopher & Barceló, Joan. (2018). Deplorables: Emotions, Political Sophistication, and Political Intolerance. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323972786
Abstract: While scholars have shown strong and enduring interest in the role of emotions in politics, questions remain about the connections between emotions and political intolerance. First, it is not clear which emotion (if any) is likely to produce intolerance toward one’s disliked groups, with different studies favoring hatred, anger, or fear. Second, it is unclear whether these effects of emotion are moderated by sophistication, as some conventional political thought argues. Do the less-sophisticated, in other words, rely on emotions when making judgments, therefore being less tolerant than sophisticates, who rely on reason? Here, we test both hypotheses using a large representative sample of the American population. We find that hatred, anger, and fear are significantly but only modestly related to political intolerance. Moreover, the effects of emotions on intolerance are not consistently stronger among the unsophisticated. These findings provide little support for the conventional assumption that the less sophisticated rely on emotions in making political judgments.
Abstract: While scholars have shown strong and enduring interest in the role of emotions in politics, questions remain about the connections between emotions and political intolerance. First, it is not clear which emotion (if any) is likely to produce intolerance toward one’s disliked groups, with different studies favoring hatred, anger, or fear. Second, it is unclear whether these effects of emotion are moderated by sophistication, as some conventional political thought argues. Do the less-sophisticated, in other words, rely on emotions when making judgments, therefore being less tolerant than sophisticates, who rely on reason? Here, we test both hypotheses using a large representative sample of the American population. We find that hatred, anger, and fear are significantly but only modestly related to political intolerance. Moreover, the effects of emotions on intolerance are not consistently stronger among the unsophisticated. These findings provide little support for the conventional assumption that the less sophisticated rely on emotions in making political judgments.
If the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, for extreme parameter values, maximizing the welfare of the middle class requires a negative top tax rate
Taxing Top Incomes in a World of Ideas. Charles I. Jones. Stanford Univ, September 2018. https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/papers.html
Abstract: This paper considers the taxation of top incomes when the following conditions apply: (i) new ideas drive economic growth, (ii) the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, and (iii) innovation cannot be perfectly targeted by a separate research subsidy --- think about the business methods of Walmart, the creation of Uber, or the ``idea'' of Amazon.com. These conditions lead to a new term in the Saez (2001) formula for the optimal top tax rate: by slowing the creation of the new ideas that drive aggregate GDP, top income taxation reduces everyone's income, not just the income at the top. When the creation of ideas is the ultimate source of economic growth, this force sharply constrains both revenue-maximizing and welfare-maximizing top tax rates. For example, for extreme parameter values, maximizing the welfare of the middle class requires a {\it negative} top tax rate: the higher income that results from the subsidy to innovation more than makes up for the lost redistribution. More generally, the calibrated model suggests that incorporating ideas and economic growth cuts the optimal top marginal tax rate substantially relative to the basic Saez calculation.
Abstract: This paper considers the taxation of top incomes when the following conditions apply: (i) new ideas drive economic growth, (ii) the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, and (iii) innovation cannot be perfectly targeted by a separate research subsidy --- think about the business methods of Walmart, the creation of Uber, or the ``idea'' of Amazon.com. These conditions lead to a new term in the Saez (2001) formula for the optimal top tax rate: by slowing the creation of the new ideas that drive aggregate GDP, top income taxation reduces everyone's income, not just the income at the top. When the creation of ideas is the ultimate source of economic growth, this force sharply constrains both revenue-maximizing and welfare-maximizing top tax rates. For example, for extreme parameter values, maximizing the welfare of the middle class requires a {\it negative} top tax rate: the higher income that results from the subsidy to innovation more than makes up for the lost redistribution. More generally, the calibrated model suggests that incorporating ideas and economic growth cuts the optimal top marginal tax rate substantially relative to the basic Saez calculation.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Advertising as a Major Source of Human Dissatisfaction: Cross-National Evidence on One Million Europeans
Advertising as a Major Source of Human Dissatisfaction: Cross-National Evidence on One Million Europeans. Chloe Michel, Michelle Sovinsky, Eugenio Proto and Andrew J Oswald. Warwick Univ Economics Working Papers, 397. Jan 2019. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/397-2019_chloe_sovinsky_proto-oswald.pdf
Abstract: Advertising is ubiquitous in modern life.Yet might it be harmful to the happiness of nations? This paper blends longitudinal data on advertising with large-scale surveys on citizens well-being.The analysis uses information on approximately 1 million randomly sampled European citizens across 27 nations over 3 decades. We show that increases in national advertising expenditure are followed by significant declines in levels of life satisfaction.This finding is robust to adjustments for a range of potential confounders -- including the personal and economic characteristics of individuals, country fixed-effects, year dummies, and business-cycle influences.Further research remains desirable. Nevertheless, our empirical results are some of the first to be consistent with the hypothesis that, perhaps by fostering unending desires, high levels of advertising may depress societal well-being.
Abstract: Advertising is ubiquitous in modern life.Yet might it be harmful to the happiness of nations? This paper blends longitudinal data on advertising with large-scale surveys on citizens well-being.The analysis uses information on approximately 1 million randomly sampled European citizens across 27 nations over 3 decades. We show that increases in national advertising expenditure are followed by significant declines in levels of life satisfaction.This finding is robust to adjustments for a range of potential confounders -- including the personal and economic characteristics of individuals, country fixed-effects, year dummies, and business-cycle influences.Further research remains desirable. Nevertheless, our empirical results are some of the first to be consistent with the hypothesis that, perhaps by fostering unending desires, high levels of advertising may depress societal well-being.
Germany, WWII: When a particular fighter pilot received public recognition, both the victory rate & the death rate of his former peers increased, depending on the intensity of prior interactions & social distance
Killer Incentives: Relative Position, Performance and Risk-Taking Among German Fighter Pilots, 1939-45. Philipp Ager, Leonardo Bursztyn, Lukas Leucht, Hans-Joachim Voth. http://home.uchicago.edu/~bursztyn/KillerIncentivesMarch2018.pdf
Abstract: How far are people willing to go to improve their relative standing? We examine the effects of public recognition on the performance and risk-taking among fighter pilots, using newly-collected data on death rates and victory claims of more than 5,000 German pilots during World War II. When a particular fighter pilot received public recognition, both the victory rate and the death rate of his former peers increased. The strength of this spillover depends on the intensity of prior interactions and social distance. Our results suggest that an intrinsic concern about relative standing, beyond instrumental consequences associated with public recognition, was a prime motivating force.
Abstract: How far are people willing to go to improve their relative standing? We examine the effects of public recognition on the performance and risk-taking among fighter pilots, using newly-collected data on death rates and victory claims of more than 5,000 German pilots during World War II. When a particular fighter pilot received public recognition, both the victory rate and the death rate of his former peers increased. The strength of this spillover depends on the intensity of prior interactions and social distance. Our results suggest that an intrinsic concern about relative standing, beyond instrumental consequences associated with public recognition, was a prime motivating force.
Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: Selling Fast and Buying Slow
Akepanidtaworn, Klakow and Di Mascio, Rick and Imas, Alex and Schmidt, Lawrence, Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors (December 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3301277
Abstract: Most research on heuristics and biases in financial decision-making has focused on non-experts, such as retail investors who hold modest portfolios. We use a unique data set to show that financial market experts - institutional investors with portfolios averaging $573 million - exhibit costly, systematic biases. A striking finding emerges: while investors display clear skill in buying, their selling decisions underperform substantially - even relative to strategies involving no skill such as randomly selling existing positions - in terms of both benchmark-adjusted and risk-adjusted returns. We present evidence consistent with limited attention as a key driver of this discrepancy, with investors devoting more attentional resources to buy decisions than sell decisions. When attentional resources are more likely to be equally distributed between prospective purchases and sales, specifically around company earnings announcement days, stocks sold outperform counterfactual strategies similar to buys. We document managers' use of a heuristic that overweights a salient attribute of portfolio assets - past returns - when selling, whereas we do not observe similar heuristic use for buys. Assets with extreme returns are more than 50% more likely to be sold than those that just under- or over-performed. Finally, we document that the use of the heuristic appears to a mistake and is linked empirically with substantial overall underperformance in selling.
Keywords: behavioral finance; limited attention; heuristics; performance evaluation
JEL Classification: G02, G11, G23
Abstract: Most research on heuristics and biases in financial decision-making has focused on non-experts, such as retail investors who hold modest portfolios. We use a unique data set to show that financial market experts - institutional investors with portfolios averaging $573 million - exhibit costly, systematic biases. A striking finding emerges: while investors display clear skill in buying, their selling decisions underperform substantially - even relative to strategies involving no skill such as randomly selling existing positions - in terms of both benchmark-adjusted and risk-adjusted returns. We present evidence consistent with limited attention as a key driver of this discrepancy, with investors devoting more attentional resources to buy decisions than sell decisions. When attentional resources are more likely to be equally distributed between prospective purchases and sales, specifically around company earnings announcement days, stocks sold outperform counterfactual strategies similar to buys. We document managers' use of a heuristic that overweights a salient attribute of portfolio assets - past returns - when selling, whereas we do not observe similar heuristic use for buys. Assets with extreme returns are more than 50% more likely to be sold than those that just under- or over-performed. Finally, we document that the use of the heuristic appears to a mistake and is linked empirically with substantial overall underperformance in selling.
Keywords: behavioral finance; limited attention; heuristics; performance evaluation
JEL Classification: G02, G11, G23
Contrary to our expectations, there is no discernible link between emotions and estimates of minority group percentages, and in some cases, negative emotions reduce misperceptions
Nothing to fear? Anxiety, numeracy, and demographic perceptions. Yamil Ricardo Velez et al. Research & Politics, https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168018794583
Abstract: Studies have found that Americans tend to overestimate the size of minority populations, a pattern that potentially increases antipathy toward racial and ethnic outgroups due to heightened perceptions of intergroup competition. Recent research, however, suggests that providing people with accurate information about racial and ethnic demographics has no discernible impact on intergroup attitudes. In this study, we consider whether anxiety is responsible for overestimates of racial and ethnic groups in the USA. We conduct an experiment where we manipulate anxiety before asking subjects to estimate the size of racial and ethnic groups at the local and national level. Contrary to our expectations, our findings suggest that there is no discernible link between emotions and estimates of minority group percentages, and in some cases, negative emotions reduce misperceptions.
Keywords: Context, emotions, misperceptions
Abstract: Studies have found that Americans tend to overestimate the size of minority populations, a pattern that potentially increases antipathy toward racial and ethnic outgroups due to heightened perceptions of intergroup competition. Recent research, however, suggests that providing people with accurate information about racial and ethnic demographics has no discernible impact on intergroup attitudes. In this study, we consider whether anxiety is responsible for overestimates of racial and ethnic groups in the USA. We conduct an experiment where we manipulate anxiety before asking subjects to estimate the size of racial and ethnic groups at the local and national level. Contrary to our expectations, our findings suggest that there is no discernible link between emotions and estimates of minority group percentages, and in some cases, negative emotions reduce misperceptions.
Keywords: Context, emotions, misperceptions
Rolf Degen summarizing: After decades of research, we still don't have a clue about which specific components of psychotherapy are helpful for clients, or if there are even any
The Role of Common Factors in Psychotherapy Outcomes. Pim Cuijpers, Mirjam Reijnders, and Marcus J.H. Huibers. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, Vol. 15:- (Volume publication date May 2019). https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-050718-095424
Abstract: Psychotherapies may work through techniques that are specific to each therapy or through factors that all therapies have in common. Proponents of the common factors model often point to meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies that show all therapies have comparable effects. However, not all meta-analyses support the common factors model; the included studies often have several methodological problems; and there are alternative explanations for finding comparable outcomes. To date, research on the working mechanisms and mediators of therapies has always been correlational, and in order to establish that a mediator is indeed a causal factor in the recovery process of a patient, studies must show a temporal relationship between the mediator and an outcome, a dose–response association, evidence that no third variable causes changes in the mediator and the outcome, supportive experimental research, and have a strong theoretical framework. Currently, no common or specific factor meets these criteria and can be considered an empirically validated working mechanism. Therefore, it is still unknown whether therapies work through common or specific factors, or both.
Abstract: Psychotherapies may work through techniques that are specific to each therapy or through factors that all therapies have in common. Proponents of the common factors model often point to meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies that show all therapies have comparable effects. However, not all meta-analyses support the common factors model; the included studies often have several methodological problems; and there are alternative explanations for finding comparable outcomes. To date, research on the working mechanisms and mediators of therapies has always been correlational, and in order to establish that a mediator is indeed a causal factor in the recovery process of a patient, studies must show a temporal relationship between the mediator and an outcome, a dose–response association, evidence that no third variable causes changes in the mediator and the outcome, supportive experimental research, and have a strong theoretical framework. Currently, no common or specific factor meets these criteria and can be considered an empirically validated working mechanism. Therefore, it is still unknown whether therapies work through common or specific factors, or both.
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