China Is Detaining Muslims in Vast Numbers. The Goal: ‘Transformation.’ Chris Buckley. The New York Times, Sep 8, 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/08/world/asia/china-uighur-muslim-detention-camp.html
HOTAN, China — On the edge of a desert in far western China, an imposing building sits behind a fence topped with barbed wire. Large red characters on the facade urge people to learn Chinese, study law and acquire job skills. Guards make clear that visitors are not welcome.
Inside, hundreds of ethnic Uighur Muslims spend their days in a high-pressure indoctrination program, where they are forced to listen to lectures, sing hymns praising the Chinese Communist Party and write “self-criticism” essays, according to detainees who have been released.
The goal is to remove any devotion to Islam.
Abdusalam Muhemet, 41, said the police detained him for reciting a verse of the Quran at a funeral. After two months in a nearby camp, he and more than 30 others were ordered to renounce their past lives. Mr. Muhemet said he went along but quietly seethed.
“That was not a place for getting rid of extremism,” he recalled. “That was a place that will breed vengeful feelings and erase Uighur identity.”
This camp outside Hotan, an ancient oasis town in the Taklamakan Desert, is one of hundreds that China has built in the past few years. It is part of a campaign of breathtaking scale and ferocity that has swept up hundreds of thousands of Chinese Muslims for weeks or months of what critics describe as brainwashing, usually without criminal charges.
Though limited to China’s western region of Xinjiang, it is the country’s most sweeping internment program since the Mao era — and the focus of a growing chorus of international criticism.
China has sought for decades to restrict the practice of Islam and maintain an iron grip in Xinjiang, a region almost as big as Alaska where more than half the population of 24 million belongs to Muslim ethnic minority groups. Most are Uighurs, whose religion, language and culture, along with a history of independence movements and resistance to Chinese rule, have long unnerved Beijing.
After a succession of violent antigovernment attacks reached a peak in 2014, the Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping, sharply escalated the crackdown, orchestrating an unforgiving drive to turn ethnic Uighurs and other Muslim minorities into loyal citizens and supporters of the party.
“Xinjiang is in an active period of terrorist activities, intense struggle against separatism and painful intervention to treat this,” Mr. Xi told officials, according to reports in the state news media last year.
In addition to the mass detentions, the authorities have intensified the use of informers and expanded police surveillance, even installing cameras in some people’s homes. Human rights activists and experts say the campaign has traumatized Uighur society, leaving behind fractured communities and families.
“Penetration of everyday life is almost really total now,” said Michael Clarke, an expert on Xinjiang at Australian National University in Canberra. “You have ethnic identity, Uighur identity in particular, being singled out as this kind of pathology.”
China has categorically denied reports of abuses in Xinjiang. At a meeting of a United Nations panel in Geneva last month, it said it does not operate re-education camps and described the facilities in question as mild corrective institutions that provide job training.
“There is no arbitrary detention,” Hu Lianhe, an official with a role in Xinjiang policy, told the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. “There is no such thing as re-education centers.”
The committee pressed Beijing to disclose how many people have been detained and free them, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed the demand as having “no factual basis” and said China’s security measures were comparable to those of other countries.
The government’s business-as-usual defense, however, is contradicted by overwhelming evidence, including official directives, studies, news reports and construction plans that have surfaced online, as well as the eyewitness accounts of a growing number of former detainees who have fled to countries such as Turkey and Kazakhstan.
The government’s own documents describe a vast network of camps — usually called “transformation through education” centers — that has expanded without public debate, specific legislative authority or any system of appeal for those detained.
The New York Times interviewed four recent camp inmates from Xinjiang who described physical and verbal abuse by guards; grinding routines of singing, lectures and self-criticism meetings; and the gnawing anxiety of not knowing when they would be released. Their accounts were echoed in interviews with more than a dozen Uighurs with relatives who were in the camps or had disappeared, many of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid government retaliation.
The Times also discovered reports online written by teams of Chinese officials who were assigned to monitor families with detained relatives, and a study published last year that said officials in some places were indiscriminately sending ethnic Uighurs to the camps to meet numerical quotas.
The study, by Qiu Yuanyuan, a scholar at the Xinjiang Party School, where officials are trained, warned that the detentions could backfire and fan radicalism. “Recklessly setting quantitative goals for transformation through education has been erroneously used” in some areas, she wrote. “The targeting is imprecise, and the scope has been expanding.”
Eradicating a ‘Virus’
The long days in the re-education camp usually began with a jog.
Nearly every morning, Mr. Muhemet recalled, he and dozens of others — college graduates, businessmen, farmers — were told to run around an assembly ground. Impatient guards sometimes slapped and shoved the older, slower inmates, he said.
Then they were made to sing rousing patriotic hymns in Chinese, such as “Without the Communist Party, There Would Be No New China.” Those who could not remember the words were denied breakfast, and they all learned the words quickly.
Mr. Muhemet, a stocky man who ran a restaurant in Hotan before fleeing China this year, said he spent seven months in a police cell and more than two months in the camp in 2015 without ever being charged with a crime. Most days, he said, the camp inmates assembled to hear long lectures by officials who warned them not to embrace Islamic radicalism, support Uighur independence or defy the Communist Party.
The officials did not ban Islam but dictated very narrow limits for how it should be practiced, including a prohibition against praying at home if there were friends or guests present, he said. In other sessions, the inmates were forced to memorize laws and write essays criticizing themselves.
“In the end, all the officials had one key point,” he said. “The greatness of the Chinese Communist Party, the backwardness of Uighur culture and the advanced nature of Chinese culture.”
After two months, Mr. Muhemet’s family was finally allowed to visit the camp, located near “New Harmony Village,” a settlement built as a symbol of friendship between ethnic Uighurs and the majority Han Chinese. “I couldn’t say anything,” he recalled. “I just held my two sons and wife, and cried and cried.”
The Xinjiang government issued “deradicalization” rules last year that gave vague authorization for the camps, and many counties now run several of them, according to government documents, including requests for bids from construction companies to build them.
Some facilities are designed for inmates who are allowed to go home at night. Others can house thousands around the clock. One camp outside Hotan has grown in the past two years from a few small buildings to facilities on at least 36 acres, larger than Alcatraz Island, and work appears to be underway to expand it further, according to satellite photos.
In government documents, local officials sometimes liken inmates to patients requiring isolation and emergency intervention.
“Anyone infected with an ideological ‘virus’ must be swiftly sent for the ‘residential care’ of transformation-through-education classes before illness arises,” a document issued by party authorities in Hotan said.
The number of Uighurs, as well as Kazakhs and other Muslim minorities, who have been detained in the camps is unclear. Estimates range from several hundred thousand to perhaps a million, with exile Uighur groups saying the number is even higher.
About 1.5 percent of China’s total population lives in Xinjiang. But the region accounted for more than 20 percent of arrests nationwide last year, according to official data compiled by Chinese Human Rights Defenders, an advocacy group. Those figures do not include people in the re-education camps.
Residents said people have been sent to the camps for visiting relatives abroad; for possessing books about religion and Uighur culture; and even for wearing a T-shirt with a Muslim crescent. Women are sometimes detained because of transgressions by their husbands or sons.
One official directive warns people to look for 75 signs of “religious extremism,” including behavior that would be considered unremarkable in other countries: growing a beard as a young man, praying in public places outside mosques or even abruptly trying to give up smoking or drinking.
‘We Are in Trouble’
Hotan feels as if under siege by an invisible enemy. Fortified police outposts and checkpoints dot the streets every few hundred yards. Schools, kindergartens, gas stations and hospitals are garlanded in barbed wire. Surveillance cameras sprout from shops, apartment entrances and metal poles.
“It’s very tense here,” a police officer said. “We haven’t rested for three years.”
This city of 390,000 underwent a Muslim revival about a decade ago. Most Uighurs have adhered to relatively relaxed forms of Sunni Islam, and a significant number are secular. But budding prosperity and growing interaction with the Middle East fueled interest in stricter Islamic traditions. Men grew long beards, while women wore hijabs that were not a part of traditional Uighur dress.
Now the beards and hijabs are gone, and posters warn against them. Mosques appear poorly attended; people must register to enter and worship under the watch of surveillance cameras.
The government shifted to harsher policies in 2009 after protests in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi, spiraled into rioting and left nearly 200 people dead. Mr. Xi and his regional functionaries went further, adopting methods reminiscent of Mao’s draconian rule — mass rallies, public confessions and “work teams” assigned to ferret out dissent.
They have also wired dusty towns across Xinjiang with an array of technology that has put the region on the cutting edge of programs for surveillance cameras as well as facial and voice recognition. Spending on security in Xinjiang has soared, with nearly $8.5 billion allocated for the police, courts and other law enforcement agencies last year, nearly double the previous year’s amount.
The campaign has polarized Uighur society. Many of the ground-level enforcers are Uighurs themselves, including police officers and officials who staff the camps and security checkpoints.
Ordinary Uighurs moving about Hotan sometimes shuffle on and off buses several times to pass through metal detectors, swipe their identity cards or hand over and unlock their mobile phones for inspection.
A resident or local cadre is assigned to monitor every 10 families in Xinjiang, reporting on comings and goings and activities deemed suspicious, including praying and visits to mosques, according to residents and government reports. Residents said the police sometimes search homes for forbidden books and suspect items such as prayer mats, using special equipment to check walls and floors for hidden caches.
The authorities are also gathering biometric data and DNA. Two Uighurs, a former official and a student, said they were ordered to show up at police buildings where officers recorded their voices, took pictures of their heads at different angles and collected hair and blood samples.
The pressure on Uighur villages intensifies when party “work teams” arrive and take up residence, sometimes living in local homes. The teams ask villagers to inform on relatives, friends and neighbors, and they investigate residents’ attitudes and activities, according to government reports published online.
One account published last year described how the authorities in one village arranged for detainees accused of “religious extremism” to be denounced by their relatives at a public rally, and encouraged other families to report similar activities.
“More and more people are coming forward with information,” Cao Lihai, an editor for a party journal, wrote in the report. “Some parents have personally brought in their children to give themselves up.”
A Uighur woman in her 20s who asked to be identified only by her surname, Gul, said she came under scrutiny after wearing an Islamic head wrap and reading books about religion and Uighur history. Local officials installed cameras at her family’s door — and inside their living room.
“We would always have to be careful what we said and what we did and what we read,” she said.
Every week, Ms. Gul added, a neighborhood official visited and spent at least two hours interrogating her. Eventually, the authorities sent her to a full-time re-education camp.
Ms. Gul, who fled China after being released, later tried to contact her brother to find out if he was in trouble. He sent a wordless reply, an emoticon face in tears.
Afterward, Ms. Gul’s mother sent her another message: “Please don’t call us again. We are in trouble.”
The Chinese government says it is winning a war against Islamic extremism and separatism, which it blames for attacks that have killed hundreds in recent years. Information about such violence is censored and incomplete, but incidents appear to have fallen off sharply since 2014, when the “deradicalization” push began.
Still, many who have emerged from the indoctrination program say it has hardened public attitudes against Beijing.
“It was of absolutely no use,” said Omurbek Eli, a Kazakh businessman, of his time held in a camp in 2017. “The outcome will be the opposite. They will become even more resistant to Chinese influence.”
For many families, the disappearance of a loved one into the camps can be devastating, both emotionally and economically — a point reflected in reports posted online by the party’s “work teams.”
Some of these reports describe Uighur families unable to harvest crops on their own because so many members have been taken away, and one mentioned a mother left to care for five children. In another report, an official near Hotan described holding a village meeting to calm distraught relatives of those sent to the camps.
The mass internments also break Uighur families by forcing members to disown their kin or by separating small children from their parents. So many parents have been detained in Kashgar, a city in western Xinjiang, that it has expanded boarding schools to take custody of older, “troubled” children.
“Whether consciously or unconsciously, authorities in Xinjiang have recognized the power of families as an alternative source of authority,” said Rian Thum, a professor at Loyola University in New Orleans who has followed the detentions. “The kind of extreme party loyalty they want has no room for that.”
Ms. Gul said the camp she was in was ramshackle enough that children who lived nearby sometimes crept up to a window late at night and called out to their mothers inside. “Their children would come and say, ‘Mother, I miss you,’” she said.
“We didn’t say anything,” she added, “because there was a camera inside the cell.”
Austin Ramzy contributed reporting from Hong Kong.
A version of this article appears in print on Sept. 9, 2018, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Anti-Islam Detention Camps in China.
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What It’s Like to Live in a Surveillance State. James A. Millward. TNYT, Feb 3 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/03/opinion/sunday/china-surveillance-state-uighurs.html
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
No evidence of a general increase in the public’s affective polarization in 2014-2017; despite a campaign with elevated elite hostility & rampant discord after the 2016 election, the limits on partisan prejudice identified in prior research remain in place
Are There Still Limits on Partisan Prejudice? Sean J. Westwood, Erik
Peterson and Yphtach Lelkes. Dartmouth College & University of
Pennsylvania.
https://www.dartmouth.edu/~seanjwestwood/papers/stillLimits.pdf
Abstract: Partisan affective polarization is believed, by some, to result from hostility in elite political discourse. We explore this account by replicating a 2014 study that examines partisan prejudice. This extensive replication offers no evidence of a general increase in the public’s affective polarization between 2014 and 2017. Divides in feeling thermometer ratings of the two political parties remained stable and there was no overall increase in measures of partisan prejudice between periods. We document this in our original data and using the 2012 and 2016 ANES. Moreover, the most affectively polarized members of the public became no more likely to hold prejudicial attitudes towards the other party. Despite an intervening campaign with elevated elite hostility and rampant discord after the 2016 election, the limits on partisan prejudice identified in prior research remain in place. This stability is important for understanding the nature and malleability of partisan affect.
Abstract: Partisan affective polarization is believed, by some, to result from hostility in elite political discourse. We explore this account by replicating a 2014 study that examines partisan prejudice. This extensive replication offers no evidence of a general increase in the public’s affective polarization between 2014 and 2017. Divides in feeling thermometer ratings of the two political parties remained stable and there was no overall increase in measures of partisan prejudice between periods. We document this in our original data and using the 2012 and 2016 ANES. Moreover, the most affectively polarized members of the public became no more likely to hold prejudicial attitudes towards the other party. Despite an intervening campaign with elevated elite hostility and rampant discord after the 2016 election, the limits on partisan prejudice identified in prior research remain in place. This stability is important for understanding the nature and malleability of partisan affect.
Democrats & Republicans were both more likely to believe news about the value-upholding behavior of their in-group or the value-undermining behavior of their out-group; Republicans were more likely to believe & want to share apolitical fake news
Pereira, Andrea, and Jay Van Bavel. 2018. “Identity Concerns Drive Belief in Fake News.” PsyArXiv. September 11. psyarxiv.com/7vc5d
Abstract: Political misinformation, often called “fake news”, represents a threat to our democracies because it impedes citizens from being appropriately informed. Evidence suggests that fake news spreads more rapidly than real news—especially when it contains political content. The present article tests three competing theoretical accounts that have been proposed to explain the rise and spread of political (fake) news: (1) the ideology hypothesis— people prefer news that bolsters their values and worldviews; (2) the confirmation bias hypothesis—people prefer news that fits their pre-existing stereotypical knowledge; and (3) the political identity hypothesis—people prefer news that allows their political in-group to fulfill certain social goals. We conducted three experiments in which American participants read news that concerned behaviors perpetrated by their political in-group or out-group and measured the extent to which they believed the news (Exp. 1, Exp. 2, Exp. 3), and were willing to share the news on social media (Exp. 2 and 3). Results revealed that Democrats and Republicans were both more likely to believe news about the value-upholding behavior of their in-group or the value-undermining behavior of their out-group, supporting a political identity hypothesis. However, although belief was positively correlated with willingness to share on social media in all conditions, we also found that Republicans were more likely to believe and want to share apolitical fake new. We discuss the implications for theoretical explanations of political beliefs and application of these concepts in in polarized political system.
Abstract: Political misinformation, often called “fake news”, represents a threat to our democracies because it impedes citizens from being appropriately informed. Evidence suggests that fake news spreads more rapidly than real news—especially when it contains political content. The present article tests three competing theoretical accounts that have been proposed to explain the rise and spread of political (fake) news: (1) the ideology hypothesis— people prefer news that bolsters their values and worldviews; (2) the confirmation bias hypothesis—people prefer news that fits their pre-existing stereotypical knowledge; and (3) the political identity hypothesis—people prefer news that allows their political in-group to fulfill certain social goals. We conducted three experiments in which American participants read news that concerned behaviors perpetrated by their political in-group or out-group and measured the extent to which they believed the news (Exp. 1, Exp. 2, Exp. 3), and were willing to share the news on social media (Exp. 2 and 3). Results revealed that Democrats and Republicans were both more likely to believe news about the value-upholding behavior of their in-group or the value-undermining behavior of their out-group, supporting a political identity hypothesis. However, although belief was positively correlated with willingness to share on social media in all conditions, we also found that Republicans were more likely to believe and want to share apolitical fake new. We discuss the implications for theoretical explanations of political beliefs and application of these concepts in in polarized political system.
Age differences in implicit theories about willpower: Why older people endorse a nonlimited theory
Job, V., Sieber, V., Rothermund, K., & Nikitin, J. (2018). Age differences in implicit theories about willpower: Why older people endorse a nonlimited theory. Psychology and Aging, 33(6), 940-952. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pag0000285
Abstract: What people believe about their capacity to exert self-control (willpower), whether it is a limited or a nonlimited resource, affects their self-regulation and well-being. The present research investigated age-related differences in people’s beliefs—called implicit theories—about willpower. Study 1 (n = 802, age range 18–83 years) showed that with higher age people are more likely to believe that willpower is a nonlimited resource. Study 2 (n = 423) with younger (age 18–35 years) and older adults (age 60–98 years) replicated this finding and showed that age and a nonlimited willpower theory are related to perceived autonomy on demanding tasks (i.e., sense of self-determination), which might explain the age-related differences in willpower theories. Finally, experimental Studies 3a (n = 302) and 3b (n = 497) manipulated an autonomous mindset in younger (age 18–35 years) and older adults (age 60–87 years) and provided evidence for a causal effect of perceived autonomy on self-control-beliefs, supporting the proposed developmental mechanism
Abstract: What people believe about their capacity to exert self-control (willpower), whether it is a limited or a nonlimited resource, affects their self-regulation and well-being. The present research investigated age-related differences in people’s beliefs—called implicit theories—about willpower. Study 1 (n = 802, age range 18–83 years) showed that with higher age people are more likely to believe that willpower is a nonlimited resource. Study 2 (n = 423) with younger (age 18–35 years) and older adults (age 60–98 years) replicated this finding and showed that age and a nonlimited willpower theory are related to perceived autonomy on demanding tasks (i.e., sense of self-determination), which might explain the age-related differences in willpower theories. Finally, experimental Studies 3a (n = 302) and 3b (n = 497) manipulated an autonomous mindset in younger (age 18–35 years) and older adults (age 60–87 years) and provided evidence for a causal effect of perceived autonomy on self-control-beliefs, supporting the proposed developmental mechanism
Moderate intake of beer (traditional and alcohol-free) does not exert vascular detrimental effects nor increases body weight in obese healthy individuals; it increases the anti-oxidative properties of HDL & facilitates cholesterol efflux
Moderate Beer Intake and Cardiovascular Health in Overweight Individuals. Teresa Padro et al. Nutrients 2018, 10(9), 1237; https://doi.org/10.3390/nu10091237
Abstract: Consistent epidemiological evidence indicates that low-to-moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with cardiovascular event presentation, while high levels of alcohol intake are associated to increased cardiovascular risk. Little is known on the effects of moderate beer intake in the metabolic syndrome. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of moderate and regular daily intake of beer with meals in overweight (body mass index (BMI) of 28–29.9 kg/m2) or obese class 1 (BMI of 30–35 kg/m2) individuals without other cardiovascular risk factors (dyslipidemia, type 2-diabetes, hypertension) focusing on the effects related to changes in weight, in lipoproteins and vascular endothelial function. We have performed an open, prospective two-arms longitudinal crossover study to investigate the effects associated with regular consumption (four week) of alcohol-free-beer (0 g alcohol/day) or traditional-beer (30 g alcohol/day in men and 15 g alcohol/day in women) on anthropometrical and biochemical parameters, liver and kidney function biomarkers, and vascular endothelial function. After four-week intervention with traditional and/or alcohol-free beer, BMI did not show any significant change and values for liver and kidney functions were within the normal levels. Moderate traditional beer intake did not affect lipid levels—however it significantly increased the antioxidant capacity of high density lipoprotein (HDL). In addition, apoB-depleted serum (after the four-week intervention period) showed a higher potential to promote cholesterol efflux from macrophages. Beer consumption did not induce vascular endothelial dysfunction or stiffness. In summary, our results based on a 12-week prospective study provide evidence that moderate intake of beer (traditional and alcohol-free) does not exert vascular detrimental effects nor increases body weight in obese healthy individuals. In contrast, moderate intake of beer increases the anti-oxidative properties of HDL and facilitates cholesterol efflux, which may prevent lipid deposition in the vessel wall.
Keywords: cardiovascular-risk-factors; overweight; obesity; fermented-beverage; lipoprotein-oxidation; HDL-antioxidant-capacity; cholesterol-efflux; endothelial-function
Abstract: Consistent epidemiological evidence indicates that low-to-moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with cardiovascular event presentation, while high levels of alcohol intake are associated to increased cardiovascular risk. Little is known on the effects of moderate beer intake in the metabolic syndrome. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of moderate and regular daily intake of beer with meals in overweight (body mass index (BMI) of 28–29.9 kg/m2) or obese class 1 (BMI of 30–35 kg/m2) individuals without other cardiovascular risk factors (dyslipidemia, type 2-diabetes, hypertension) focusing on the effects related to changes in weight, in lipoproteins and vascular endothelial function. We have performed an open, prospective two-arms longitudinal crossover study to investigate the effects associated with regular consumption (four week) of alcohol-free-beer (0 g alcohol/day) or traditional-beer (30 g alcohol/day in men and 15 g alcohol/day in women) on anthropometrical and biochemical parameters, liver and kidney function biomarkers, and vascular endothelial function. After four-week intervention with traditional and/or alcohol-free beer, BMI did not show any significant change and values for liver and kidney functions were within the normal levels. Moderate traditional beer intake did not affect lipid levels—however it significantly increased the antioxidant capacity of high density lipoprotein (HDL). In addition, apoB-depleted serum (after the four-week intervention period) showed a higher potential to promote cholesterol efflux from macrophages. Beer consumption did not induce vascular endothelial dysfunction or stiffness. In summary, our results based on a 12-week prospective study provide evidence that moderate intake of beer (traditional and alcohol-free) does not exert vascular detrimental effects nor increases body weight in obese healthy individuals. In contrast, moderate intake of beer increases the anti-oxidative properties of HDL and facilitates cholesterol efflux, which may prevent lipid deposition in the vessel wall.
Keywords: cardiovascular-risk-factors; overweight; obesity; fermented-beverage; lipoprotein-oxidation; HDL-antioxidant-capacity; cholesterol-efflux; endothelial-function
Why are conversations limited to about four people? A theoretical exploration of the conversation size constraint
Why are conversations limited to about four people? A theoretical exploration of the conversation size constraint. Jaimie Aron, Kremsa Jason Wilkes. Evolution and Human Behavior, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2018.09.004
Abstract: It is genuinely difficult to sustain a casual conversation that includes more than four speakers. Add a fifth speaker, and the conversation often quickly fissions into smaller groups. Termed ‘the dinner party problem,’ this four-person conversation size limit is believed to be caused by evolved cognitive constraints on human mentalizing capacities. In this view, people can mentally manage three other minds at any one time, leading to four-person conversations. But whereas existing work has posited and empirically tested alternative accounts of what drives the conversation size constraint, to our knowledge, no work has explored the question of why this capacity is specifically four? In this theoretical paper, we (a) review research demonstrating this cognitive constraint in sociality, (b) review the relevant working memory literature, which has explored the “why four” question at some length, and (c) we begin to pose possible answers to our specific social “why four” question. Using simple mathematical models of small-scale sociality, which we imbue with evolutionarily-relevant content, we present one novel possible explanation for the four-person conversation size constraint.
Abstract: It is genuinely difficult to sustain a casual conversation that includes more than four speakers. Add a fifth speaker, and the conversation often quickly fissions into smaller groups. Termed ‘the dinner party problem,’ this four-person conversation size limit is believed to be caused by evolved cognitive constraints on human mentalizing capacities. In this view, people can mentally manage three other minds at any one time, leading to four-person conversations. But whereas existing work has posited and empirically tested alternative accounts of what drives the conversation size constraint, to our knowledge, no work has explored the question of why this capacity is specifically four? In this theoretical paper, we (a) review research demonstrating this cognitive constraint in sociality, (b) review the relevant working memory literature, which has explored the “why four” question at some length, and (c) we begin to pose possible answers to our specific social “why four” question. Using simple mathematical models of small-scale sociality, which we imbue with evolutionarily-relevant content, we present one novel possible explanation for the four-person conversation size constraint.
The Myth of the Tech-Savvy Teen and the Clueless Senior Citizen: Revisiting Technology-Based Victimization Over the Life Course
The Myth of the Tech-Savvy Teen and the Clueless Senior Citizen: Revisiting Technology-Based Victimization Over the Life Course. Travis C. Pratt. Criminal Justice Review, https://doi.org/10.1177/0734016818763245
Abstract: It is a popular idea that younger people are more technology-savvy than their older counterparts. It is an equally popular idea that our oldest generation—senior citizens—is so clueless about new technological developments that they are the most vulnerable to technology-based forms of victimization. The present article, however, demonstrates that these ideas are myths and that it is the young—not the old—who are most at risk of victimization when technology is involved. This should come as no surprise since the age–victimization curve mirrors rather closely the age–crime curve, where the risk of victimization typically peaks in late adolescence and early adulthood and follows a steady decline thereafter. The risks associated with technologically based forms of victimization—at least in general—are no different. The implications of dispelling these myths for criminological research as we move forward are discussed in the context of the nature of “risky” behaviors at different stages of the life course.
Keywords: technology, victimization, life course
Abstract: It is a popular idea that younger people are more technology-savvy than their older counterparts. It is an equally popular idea that our oldest generation—senior citizens—is so clueless about new technological developments that they are the most vulnerable to technology-based forms of victimization. The present article, however, demonstrates that these ideas are myths and that it is the young—not the old—who are most at risk of victimization when technology is involved. This should come as no surprise since the age–victimization curve mirrors rather closely the age–crime curve, where the risk of victimization typically peaks in late adolescence and early adulthood and follows a steady decline thereafter. The risks associated with technologically based forms of victimization—at least in general—are no different. The implications of dispelling these myths for criminological research as we move forward are discussed in the context of the nature of “risky” behaviors at different stages of the life course.
Keywords: technology, victimization, life course
Why Too Many Political Science Findings Cannot Be Trusted and What We Can Do About It: Assessing, Explaining and Improving the Credibility of Our Discipline’s Evidence Base
Wuttke, Alexander. 2018. “Why Too Many Political Science Findings Cannot Be Trusted and What We Can Do About It: Assessing, Explaining and Improving the Credibility of Our Discipline’s Evidence Base.” SocArXiv. September 11. doi:10.31235/osf.io/dq87w
Abstract
While other scientific disciplines are currently undergoing “credibility revolutions”, political science should also face the uncomfortable question of how much we can trust the findings published in the discipline’s journals and presses. Theoretically, this commentary uses the concept of social dilemmas to show how scientists ¬in academia’s current incentive system work against their self-interest if they prioritize research credibility. Empirically, this article conducts a comprehensive review of meta-scientific research with a focus on quantitative political science, demonstrating that threats to the credibility of political science findings are systematic and real. Building on a framework to assess the credibility of scientific literatures, the review shows that a large fraction of the published literature makes itself inaccessible for intersubjective credibility assessments, fails tests of analytical robustness or shows patterns of systematic deviation from true population estimates. Still, the review also highlights the notable progress the discipline has made in recent years to secure research credibility. This commentary urges further steps toward this direction and proposes concrete institutional measures to better align individual researcher rationality with the collective good of verifiable, robust and valid scientific results, such as dedicated verification procedures and the implementation of pre-registration and results-blind peer reviewing.
Abstract
While other scientific disciplines are currently undergoing “credibility revolutions”, political science should also face the uncomfortable question of how much we can trust the findings published in the discipline’s journals and presses. Theoretically, this commentary uses the concept of social dilemmas to show how scientists ¬in academia’s current incentive system work against their self-interest if they prioritize research credibility. Empirically, this article conducts a comprehensive review of meta-scientific research with a focus on quantitative political science, demonstrating that threats to the credibility of political science findings are systematic and real. Building on a framework to assess the credibility of scientific literatures, the review shows that a large fraction of the published literature makes itself inaccessible for intersubjective credibility assessments, fails tests of analytical robustness or shows patterns of systematic deviation from true population estimates. Still, the review also highlights the notable progress the discipline has made in recent years to secure research credibility. This commentary urges further steps toward this direction and proposes concrete institutional measures to better align individual researcher rationality with the collective good of verifiable, robust and valid scientific results, such as dedicated verification procedures and the implementation of pre-registration and results-blind peer reviewing.
Monday, September 10, 2018
Found that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior & that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens; Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others
Willing to Evade: An Experimental Study of Italy and Denmark. Alice Guerra and Brooke Harrington. Copenhagen Business School, Department of Business and Politics. ttps://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/62eb/759a0b5079486771fa960ca140de6de783c4.pdf
Abstract: Tax evasion varies widely across countries and follows a geographical pattern: Southern European countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece, are plagued by higher evasion rates than Northern European countries. This suggests a testable research question: Can national identity explain North-South discrepancies in European tax compliance? We address this issue by conducting identical laboratory experiments in Denmark and Italy, two countries that lie not only at the opposite ends of the spectrum on tax compliance but also at the extremes of cultural differences and citizen trust in the government. We adopt a double-hurdle model to separate the decision of whether to evade or not (extensive margin), from the decision of how much to evade (intensive margin). This study innovates both theoretically and methodologically. Theoretically, it contributes in two ways to the literature on tax compliance: 1) by showing that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior; and 2) by showing that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens. Methodologically, the paper innovates by being the first to examine tax compliance in Denmark, and by testing the effects of an extended vector of covariates on both the intensive and extensive margins of tax behavior. Empirically, we find that--contrary to expectations--Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others. We find that individual evasion choices are strongly affected by risk aversion and individual perception about others' compliance behavior. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for tax policies and future research.
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Another, related interpretation is that discrepancies in tax behavior s are driven by differences in circumstances. Italians face the same circumstances as Dane s in the lab, but the circumstances Italians and Danes face outside the lab are very different. Danes can be highly motivated to evade taxes (even more than Italians) in situations where they have the possibility to do so (as in our experiment), but in mos t cases they are unable to cheat (e.g., because of the third-party reporting system and high tax enforcement they generally face). There is a crucial difference between being willing to evade taxes and being able to do so, and this depends upon the level o f tax enforcement and the reporting system in place. This explanation is coherent with the findings from the field experiment conducted by Kleven et al. (2011) in Denmark. The authors found that the tax evasion rate is close to zero for income subject to t hird-party reporting but substantial for self-reported income. Since most income in Denmark is subject to third-party reporting, the overall evasion rate is modest. In this respect, it would be interesting to ru n a similar field experiments with taxpayers in Italy to evaluate to extent to which compliance choices change under alternative reporting systems.
Overall, our experiment together with the recent cross-national laboratory experiments on tax behavior seem to reveal a common finding: that national identity, alone, cannot explain the North-South divergences in tax compliance. This result, which deserves further replication analyses, is encouraging because it suggests that tax policies and institutions play a crucial role in tax compliance. Indeed, fa ctors such as the traditional tax enforcement measures, redistribution policies, the threat of public disclosure of tax evasion, perception about others' compliance behavior, affect individual intrinsic motivation to fulfill fiscal obligations and should be used to mitigate evasion issues.
Abstract: Tax evasion varies widely across countries and follows a geographical pattern: Southern European countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece, are plagued by higher evasion rates than Northern European countries. This suggests a testable research question: Can national identity explain North-South discrepancies in European tax compliance? We address this issue by conducting identical laboratory experiments in Denmark and Italy, two countries that lie not only at the opposite ends of the spectrum on tax compliance but also at the extremes of cultural differences and citizen trust in the government. We adopt a double-hurdle model to separate the decision of whether to evade or not (extensive margin), from the decision of how much to evade (intensive margin). This study innovates both theoretically and methodologically. Theoretically, it contributes in two ways to the literature on tax compliance: 1) by showing that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior; and 2) by showing that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens. Methodologically, the paper innovates by being the first to examine tax compliance in Denmark, and by testing the effects of an extended vector of covariates on both the intensive and extensive margins of tax behavior. Empirically, we find that--contrary to expectations--Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others. We find that individual evasion choices are strongly affected by risk aversion and individual perception about others' compliance behavior. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for tax policies and future research.
---
Another, related interpretation is that discrepancies in tax behavior s are driven by differences in circumstances. Italians face the same circumstances as Dane s in the lab, but the circumstances Italians and Danes face outside the lab are very different. Danes can be highly motivated to evade taxes (even more than Italians) in situations where they have the possibility to do so (as in our experiment), but in mos t cases they are unable to cheat (e.g., because of the third-party reporting system and high tax enforcement they generally face). There is a crucial difference between being willing to evade taxes and being able to do so, and this depends upon the level o f tax enforcement and the reporting system in place. This explanation is coherent with the findings from the field experiment conducted by Kleven et al. (2011) in Denmark. The authors found that the tax evasion rate is close to zero for income subject to t hird-party reporting but substantial for self-reported income. Since most income in Denmark is subject to third-party reporting, the overall evasion rate is modest. In this respect, it would be interesting to ru n a similar field experiments with taxpayers in Italy to evaluate to extent to which compliance choices change under alternative reporting systems.
Overall, our experiment together with the recent cross-national laboratory experiments on tax behavior seem to reveal a common finding: that national identity, alone, cannot explain the North-South divergences in tax compliance. This result, which deserves further replication analyses, is encouraging because it suggests that tax policies and institutions play a crucial role in tax compliance. Indeed, fa ctors such as the traditional tax enforcement measures, redistribution policies, the threat of public disclosure of tax evasion, perception about others' compliance behavior, affect individual intrinsic motivation to fulfill fiscal obligations and should be used to mitigate evasion issues.
Rolf Degen summarizing: The negative beats the positive in terms of retweetability
Retweet: A popular information diffusion mechanism – A survey paper. Syeda Nadia Firdaus, Chen Ding, Alireza Sadeghian. Online Social Networks and Media, Volume 6, June 2018, Pages 26-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.osnem.2018.04.001
Abstract: Retweeting or reposting a message is considered as an easily available information diffusion mechanism provided by Twitter or any other social network sites. By finding out why a user retweets a tweet, or predicting whether a tweet will be retweeted by a user, we can not only understand user's behavior or interest better, but also understand how information is diffused on the online social network. In this survey paper, we have explored various research works related to retweet prediction and retweeting behavior analysis, investigated the underlying reasons for spreading information in forms of retweets, and discussed the challenges of retweet related research. The purpose of the paper is to provide an overview of researches in retweet prediction area, which can be used as an introductory guide for future researchers in this field.
Abstract: Retweeting or reposting a message is considered as an easily available information diffusion mechanism provided by Twitter or any other social network sites. By finding out why a user retweets a tweet, or predicting whether a tweet will be retweeted by a user, we can not only understand user's behavior or interest better, but also understand how information is diffused on the online social network. In this survey paper, we have explored various research works related to retweet prediction and retweeting behavior analysis, investigated the underlying reasons for spreading information in forms of retweets, and discussed the challenges of retweet related research. The purpose of the paper is to provide an overview of researches in retweet prediction area, which can be used as an introductory guide for future researchers in this field.
The current institutional success/gov't quality of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of successful historical taxation
Colonial Revenue Extraction and Modern Day Government Quality in the British Empire. Rasmus Broms. World Development, Volume 90, February 2017, Pages 269-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.10.003
Highlights
• Colonial revenue level is linked to modern day government quality in British colonies.
• The association is stronger when neo-European colonies are excluded.
• These findings call the extractive institutions hypothesis into question.
Summary: The relationship between the extent of government revenue a government collects, primarily in the form of taxation, and its overall quality has increasingly been identified as a key factor for successful state building, good institutions, and—by extension—general development. Initially deriving from historical research on Western Europe, this process is expected to unfold slowly over time. This study tests the claim that more extensive revenue collection has long-lasting and positive consequences for government quality in a developmental setting. Using fiscal records from British colonies, results from cross-colony/country regression analyses reveal that higher colonial income-adjusted revenue levels during the early twentieth century can be linked to higher government quality today. This relationship is substantial and robust to several specifications of both colonial revenue and modern day government quality, and remains significant under control for a range of rivaling explanations. The results support the notion that the current institutional success of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of historical revenue extraction.
Highlights
• Colonial revenue level is linked to modern day government quality in British colonies.
• The association is stronger when neo-European colonies are excluded.
• These findings call the extractive institutions hypothesis into question.
Summary: The relationship between the extent of government revenue a government collects, primarily in the form of taxation, and its overall quality has increasingly been identified as a key factor for successful state building, good institutions, and—by extension—general development. Initially deriving from historical research on Western Europe, this process is expected to unfold slowly over time. This study tests the claim that more extensive revenue collection has long-lasting and positive consequences for government quality in a developmental setting. Using fiscal records from British colonies, results from cross-colony/country regression analyses reveal that higher colonial income-adjusted revenue levels during the early twentieth century can be linked to higher government quality today. This relationship is substantial and robust to several specifications of both colonial revenue and modern day government quality, and remains significant under control for a range of rivaling explanations. The results support the notion that the current institutional success of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of historical revenue extraction.
People had self-insight into their momentary extraversion, conscientiousness, & likely neuroticism, suggesting that people can accurately detect fluctuations in some aspects of their personality; but not so much for agreeableness
Sun, Jessie, and Simine Vazire. 2018. “Do People Know What They’re Like in the Moment?.” PsyArXiv. September 9. doi:10.31234/osf.io/sg5aw
Abstract: Knowing yourself requires knowing not just what you are like in general (trait self-knowledge), but also how your personality fluctuates from moment to moment (state self-knowledge). We examined this latter form of self-knowledge. Participants (248 people; 2,938 observations) wore the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR), an unobtrusive audio recorder, and completed experience sampling (ESM) self-reports of their personality states four times each day for one week. We estimated state self-knowledge by comparing self-reported personality states to consensual observer ratings of personality states coded from the EAR files, which formed the criterion for what participants were “actually” like in the moment. People had self-insight into their momentary extraversion, conscientiousness, and likely neuroticism, suggesting that people can accurately detect fluctuations in some aspects of their personality. However, the evidence for self-insight was weaker for agreeableness. This apparent self-ignorance may be partly responsible for interpersonal problems and for blind spots in trait self-knowledge.
Abstract: Knowing yourself requires knowing not just what you are like in general (trait self-knowledge), but also how your personality fluctuates from moment to moment (state self-knowledge). We examined this latter form of self-knowledge. Participants (248 people; 2,938 observations) wore the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR), an unobtrusive audio recorder, and completed experience sampling (ESM) self-reports of their personality states four times each day for one week. We estimated state self-knowledge by comparing self-reported personality states to consensual observer ratings of personality states coded from the EAR files, which formed the criterion for what participants were “actually” like in the moment. People had self-insight into their momentary extraversion, conscientiousness, and likely neuroticism, suggesting that people can accurately detect fluctuations in some aspects of their personality. However, the evidence for self-insight was weaker for agreeableness. This apparent self-ignorance may be partly responsible for interpersonal problems and for blind spots in trait self-knowledge.
Sunday, September 9, 2018
Significant correlations between the numerous variables and a main effect of sexual disgust, extraversion, and sensation seeking on enjoyment of horror films
So Disgusting, But You Can't Take Your Eyes Off the Screen: Can Personality Traits and Disgust Sensitivity Influence People's Love for Horror Movies? Ashley Marie Dillard. Western Carolina University, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2018. 10788427. https://search.proquest.com/openview/1ed112229e7f7dc302084b163680e811/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
Abstract: Personality traits have been found to be associated with disgust sensitivity. For example, sexual and moral disgust have been found to be strongly correlated with the honesty-humility factor in the HEXACO model (Tybur & de Vries, 2013). However, questions have been raised as to what makes some individuals find disgusting horror movies enjoyable, while others are left mortified. To better understand these differences, participants were assessed using the HEXACO-PI-R-60, the Three-Domain Disgust Scale, the Brief Sensation Seeking Scale, and an adapted Enjoyment of Frightening Films measure within the current study. Ultimately, the present study explored if there were any individual differences among people on personality and disgust sensitivity measures in regard to preference for horror movies. Nine out of sixteen of my hypotheses were supported within this study. The results revealed significant correlations between the numerous variables and a main effect of sexual disgust, extraversion, and sensation seeking on enjoyment of frightening films.
Abstract: Personality traits have been found to be associated with disgust sensitivity. For example, sexual and moral disgust have been found to be strongly correlated with the honesty-humility factor in the HEXACO model (Tybur & de Vries, 2013). However, questions have been raised as to what makes some individuals find disgusting horror movies enjoyable, while others are left mortified. To better understand these differences, participants were assessed using the HEXACO-PI-R-60, the Three-Domain Disgust Scale, the Brief Sensation Seeking Scale, and an adapted Enjoyment of Frightening Films measure within the current study. Ultimately, the present study explored if there were any individual differences among people on personality and disgust sensitivity measures in regard to preference for horror movies. Nine out of sixteen of my hypotheses were supported within this study. The results revealed significant correlations between the numerous variables and a main effect of sexual disgust, extraversion, and sensation seeking on enjoyment of frightening films.
In the four-cycle period 2006-2012, 89% of Americans were in a highly competitive jurisdiction for at least one office; more Americans witness competition than citizens of Canada or the UK, other nations with SMSP-based systems
Bernard L. Fraga and Eitan D. Hersh (2018), "Are Americans Stuck in Uncompetitive Enclaves? An Appraisal of U.S. Electoral Competition", Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 13: No. 3, pp 291-311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00017161
Abstract: Most elections in the United States are not close, which has raised concerns among social scientists and reform advocates about the vibrancy of American democracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that while individual elections are often uncompetitive, hierarchical, temporal, and geographic variation in the locus of competition results in most of the country regularly experiencing close elections. In the four-cycle period between 2006 and 2012, 89% of Americans were in a highly competitive jurisdiction for at least one office. Since 1914, about half the states have never gone more than four election cycles without a close statewide contest. More Americans witness competition than citizens of Canada or the UK, other nations with SMSP-based systems. The dispersed competition we find also results in nearly all Americans being represented by both political parties for different offices.
Subjects: Competitive Marketing Strategy, Elections:Electoral behavior, Elections:Electoral institutions, Elections:Voting behavior, Elections:Voting theory, Elections, Electoral behavior, Electoral institutions, Federalism, Political participation, Political parties, Representation, Voting behavior, Voting theory
Keywords: Elections, competition, political geography
Abstract: Most elections in the United States are not close, which has raised concerns among social scientists and reform advocates about the vibrancy of American democracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that while individual elections are often uncompetitive, hierarchical, temporal, and geographic variation in the locus of competition results in most of the country regularly experiencing close elections. In the four-cycle period between 2006 and 2012, 89% of Americans were in a highly competitive jurisdiction for at least one office. Since 1914, about half the states have never gone more than four election cycles without a close statewide contest. More Americans witness competition than citizens of Canada or the UK, other nations with SMSP-based systems. The dispersed competition we find also results in nearly all Americans being represented by both political parties for different offices.
Subjects: Competitive Marketing Strategy, Elections:Electoral behavior, Elections:Electoral institutions, Elections:Voting behavior, Elections:Voting theory, Elections, Electoral behavior, Electoral institutions, Federalism, Political participation, Political parties, Representation, Voting behavior, Voting theory
Keywords: Elections, competition, political geography
Is it time to kill the detection wizard? Emotional intelligence does not facilitate deception detection
Is it time to kill the detection wizard? Emotional intelligence does not facilitate deception detection. Nicolas Roulin, Marguerite Ternes. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 137, 15 January 2019, Pages 131-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.08.020
Highlights
• Individuals high on emotional intelligence (EI) rely more on non-verbal information when attempting to detect deception.
• EI and reliance on non-verbal information are unrelated to detection accuracy.
• The popular notion that some people are naturally better at deception detection, or “detection wizards,” should be revisited.
Abstract: Being able to identify if someone is telling the truth or lying is essential in many social situations, for instance in police interrogations or employment interviews. Unfortunately, people are generally poor at lie detection. Some researchers have argued that a small category of individuals are detection wizards who can achieve substantially higher detection accuracy because they have high levels of emotional intelligence (EI) and are better able to identify non-verbal cues to deceit. These propositions have been popularized in the media and are appealing to some practitioners, but are based on very limited empirical evidence. We conducted three experimental studies to test these propositions, relying on different samples and using both trait and ability measures of EI. We measured deception detection using different approaches (in-person and video-based) and contexts (social interaction and job interview). One study measured skepticism, and another used eye-tracking technology to capture participants' reliance on non-verbal information. Results showed that high-EI individuals indeed rely more on non-verbal information. However, EI, skepticism, and the use of non-verbal cues are unrelated to deception detection. We thus argue that detection wizards are likely a myth, and it would be more productive to focus on evidence-based methods to improve deception detection.
Highlights
• Individuals high on emotional intelligence (EI) rely more on non-verbal information when attempting to detect deception.
• EI and reliance on non-verbal information are unrelated to detection accuracy.
• The popular notion that some people are naturally better at deception detection, or “detection wizards,” should be revisited.
Abstract: Being able to identify if someone is telling the truth or lying is essential in many social situations, for instance in police interrogations or employment interviews. Unfortunately, people are generally poor at lie detection. Some researchers have argued that a small category of individuals are detection wizards who can achieve substantially higher detection accuracy because they have high levels of emotional intelligence (EI) and are better able to identify non-verbal cues to deceit. These propositions have been popularized in the media and are appealing to some practitioners, but are based on very limited empirical evidence. We conducted three experimental studies to test these propositions, relying on different samples and using both trait and ability measures of EI. We measured deception detection using different approaches (in-person and video-based) and contexts (social interaction and job interview). One study measured skepticism, and another used eye-tracking technology to capture participants' reliance on non-verbal information. Results showed that high-EI individuals indeed rely more on non-verbal information. However, EI, skepticism, and the use of non-verbal cues are unrelated to deception detection. We thus argue that detection wizards are likely a myth, and it would be more productive to focus on evidence-based methods to improve deception detection.
Chivalry and attractiveness bias in police officer forensic judgments in Israel: Female offenders were treated more forgivingly than male offenders
Chivalry and attractiveness bias in police officer forensic judgments in Israel. Mally Shechory Bitton & Liza Zvi. The Journal of Social Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2018.1509043
ABSTRACT: The chivalry hypothesis and attractiveness bias were evaluated among 323 police officers and 364 students, serving as a control group. The participants were asked to read a description of a swindle, where the offender was either physically attractive or unattractive. They then had to assign a punishment to the offender and judge the blame ascribed to both offender and victim. The findings showed that the offender’s sex, more than his or her external appearance, affects differences in punishment severity. Female offenders were treated more forgivingly than male offenders. Nonetheless, analysis of blame attributions shows that attractive offenders are blamed more than unattractive offenders. Women were also found to dispense severe punishments more than men.
KEYWORDS: Attractiveness bias, chivalry hypothesis, judgments offenders, police officers
ABSTRACT: The chivalry hypothesis and attractiveness bias were evaluated among 323 police officers and 364 students, serving as a control group. The participants were asked to read a description of a swindle, where the offender was either physically attractive or unattractive. They then had to assign a punishment to the offender and judge the blame ascribed to both offender and victim. The findings showed that the offender’s sex, more than his or her external appearance, affects differences in punishment severity. Female offenders were treated more forgivingly than male offenders. Nonetheless, analysis of blame attributions shows that attractive offenders are blamed more than unattractive offenders. Women were also found to dispense severe punishments more than men.
KEYWORDS: Attractiveness bias, chivalry hypothesis, judgments offenders, police officers
Saturday, September 8, 2018
Even on “unfavorable” facts that are inconvenient to the respondent’s political party, more-certain respondents are more likely to answer correctly; where misperceptions exist, Democrats & Republicans perform poorly on the same questions
Self-Awareness of Political Knowledge. Matthew H. Graham. Political Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9499-8
Abstract: Despite widespread concern over false beliefs about politically-relevant facts, little is known about how strongly Americans believe their answers to poll questions. I propose a conceptual framework for characterizing survey responses about facts: self-awareness, or how well people can assess their own knowledge. I measure self-awareness of political knowledge by eliciting respondent certainty about answers to 24 factual questions about politics. Even on “unfavorable” facts that are inconvenient to the respondent’s political party, more-certain respondents are more likely to answer correctly. Because people are somewhat aware of their ignorance, respondents usually describe their incorrect responses as low-certainty guesses, not high-certainty beliefs. Where misperceptions exist, they tend to be bipartisan: Democrats and Republicans perform poorly on the same questions and explain their answers using similar points of reference.
Abstract: Despite widespread concern over false beliefs about politically-relevant facts, little is known about how strongly Americans believe their answers to poll questions. I propose a conceptual framework for characterizing survey responses about facts: self-awareness, or how well people can assess their own knowledge. I measure self-awareness of political knowledge by eliciting respondent certainty about answers to 24 factual questions about politics. Even on “unfavorable” facts that are inconvenient to the respondent’s political party, more-certain respondents are more likely to answer correctly. Because people are somewhat aware of their ignorance, respondents usually describe their incorrect responses as low-certainty guesses, not high-certainty beliefs. Where misperceptions exist, they tend to be bipartisan: Democrats and Republicans perform poorly on the same questions and explain their answers using similar points of reference.
Overall, the overwhelming majority of incarcerated women reported negative emotional experiences of crime; men have more complex, mixed responses
Women offenders' emotional experience of crime. Kayley Ciesla, Maria Ioannou, Laura Hammond. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, https://doi.org/10.1002/jip.1512
Abstract: The main aim of the study was to examine the emotional experiences of crime amongst women offenders. With a mean age of 36.40 years (SD = 11.12), 128 women offenders completed a questionnaire exploring emotions they had experienced whilst committing a crime. Participants included incarcerated individuals as well as those in community‐based projects. Smallest space analysis of the emotions highlighted four key themes; depression, distress, elation, and calm. Results reflected the circumplex model of emotions but highlighted strong distinction between pleasure and displeasure. Overall, the majority of women reported negative emotional experiences of crime. Understanding how individuals felt during their crime commission offers alternative perspectives of criminal behaviour and a framework for future explorations. Results offer crucial insights for policy makers, criminal investigations, and therapeutic treatment options.
Abstract: The main aim of the study was to examine the emotional experiences of crime amongst women offenders. With a mean age of 36.40 years (SD = 11.12), 128 women offenders completed a questionnaire exploring emotions they had experienced whilst committing a crime. Participants included incarcerated individuals as well as those in community‐based projects. Smallest space analysis of the emotions highlighted four key themes; depression, distress, elation, and calm. Results reflected the circumplex model of emotions but highlighted strong distinction between pleasure and displeasure. Overall, the majority of women reported negative emotional experiences of crime. Understanding how individuals felt during their crime commission offers alternative perspectives of criminal behaviour and a framework for future explorations. Results offer crucial insights for policy makers, criminal investigations, and therapeutic treatment options.
Compared with heterosexuals, lesbians/gays had higher odds of reporting suicide acceptability if one goes bankrupt, dishonors family, or is tired of living
Suicide Acceptability and Sexual Orientation: Results from the General Social Survey 2008–2014. John R. Blosnich, Megan C. Lytle, Robert W. S. Coulter & Darren L. Whitfield. Archives of Suicide Research, Volume 22, 2018 - Issue 4, Pages 542-554. https://doi.org/10.1080/13811118.2017.1377132
Abstract: Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals have higher prevalence of lifetime suicide ideation and attempt than their heterosexual peers, but less is known about differences in suicide acceptability (i.e., believing suicide is a viable answer to a problem). The purpose of this study was to examine if LGB adults had greater suicide acceptability than heterosexual adults. A total of 4 items in the General Social Surveys from 2008 to 2014 assessed whether a nationally representative sample of U.S. adult respondents (n = 5,037) thought it acceptable for individuals to kill themselves if one: goes bankrupt, dishonors their family, is tired of living, or has an incurable disease. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of sexual orientation with suicide acceptability items after adjusting for confounding factors. Compared with heterosexuals, lesbians/gays had higher odds of reporting suicide acceptability if one goes bankrupt (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.06, 3.46), dishonors family (OR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.28), or is tired of living (OR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.30, 3.90). Bisexual and heterosexual groups were largely similar across the 4 suicide acceptability items. No sexual orientation differences were observed for reporting acceptability of suicide in the instance of an incurable disease. Post hoc analyses revealed significant interactions between sex and sexual orientation, such that differences in suicide acceptability seemed to be driven by sexual minority women rather than by sexual minority men. Suicide acceptability differs by sexual orientation, and community-level interventions around changing norms about suicide may be a prevention strategy for sexual minority individuals.
Abstract: Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals have higher prevalence of lifetime suicide ideation and attempt than their heterosexual peers, but less is known about differences in suicide acceptability (i.e., believing suicide is a viable answer to a problem). The purpose of this study was to examine if LGB adults had greater suicide acceptability than heterosexual adults. A total of 4 items in the General Social Surveys from 2008 to 2014 assessed whether a nationally representative sample of U.S. adult respondents (n = 5,037) thought it acceptable for individuals to kill themselves if one: goes bankrupt, dishonors their family, is tired of living, or has an incurable disease. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of sexual orientation with suicide acceptability items after adjusting for confounding factors. Compared with heterosexuals, lesbians/gays had higher odds of reporting suicide acceptability if one goes bankrupt (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.06, 3.46), dishonors family (OR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.28), or is tired of living (OR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.30, 3.90). Bisexual and heterosexual groups were largely similar across the 4 suicide acceptability items. No sexual orientation differences were observed for reporting acceptability of suicide in the instance of an incurable disease. Post hoc analyses revealed significant interactions between sex and sexual orientation, such that differences in suicide acceptability seemed to be driven by sexual minority women rather than by sexual minority men. Suicide acceptability differs by sexual orientation, and community-level interventions around changing norms about suicide may be a prevention strategy for sexual minority individuals.
Friday, September 7, 2018
Liberals—but not conservatives—presented less competence to Black interaction partners than to White ones in sophistication of vocabulary selected for assignment, competence-related traits selected for introduction, & competence-related content of open-ended introductions
Dupree, Cydney H., and Susan Fiske. 2018. “Self-presentation in Interracial Settings: The Competence Downshift by White Liberals.” PsyArXiv. September 7. doi:10.31234/osf.io/pv2ab
Abstract: Most Whites, particularly socio-political liberals, now endorse racial equality. Archival and experimental research reveals a subtle but reliable ironic consequence: White liberals self-present less competence to minorities than to other Whites—that is, they patronize minorities stereotyped as lower status and less competent. In an initial archival demonstration of the competence downshift, Study 1 examined the content of White Republican and Democratic presidential candidates’ campaign speeches. Although Republican candidates did not significantly shift language based on audience racial composition, Democratic candidates used less competence-related language to minority audiences than to White audiences. Across five experiments (total N = 2,157), White participants responded to a Black or White hypothetical (Studies 2, 3, 4, S1) or ostensibly real (Study 5) interaction partner. Three indicators of self-presentation converged: sophistication of vocabulary selected for an assignment, competence-related traits selected for an introduction, and competence-related content of brief, open-ended introductions. Conservatism indicators included: self-reported political affiliation (liberal-conservative), Right-Wing Authoritarianism (values-based conservatism) and Social Dominance Orientation (hierarchy-based conservatism). Internal meta-analyses revealed that liberals—but not conservatives—presented less competence to Black interaction partners than to White ones. The simple effect was small but significant across studies, and most reliable for the self-reported measure of conservatism. This possibly unintentional but ultimately patronizing competence-downshift suggests that well-intentioned liberal Whites may draw on low-status/competence stereotypes to affiliate with minorities.
Abstract: Most Whites, particularly socio-political liberals, now endorse racial equality. Archival and experimental research reveals a subtle but reliable ironic consequence: White liberals self-present less competence to minorities than to other Whites—that is, they patronize minorities stereotyped as lower status and less competent. In an initial archival demonstration of the competence downshift, Study 1 examined the content of White Republican and Democratic presidential candidates’ campaign speeches. Although Republican candidates did not significantly shift language based on audience racial composition, Democratic candidates used less competence-related language to minority audiences than to White audiences. Across five experiments (total N = 2,157), White participants responded to a Black or White hypothetical (Studies 2, 3, 4, S1) or ostensibly real (Study 5) interaction partner. Three indicators of self-presentation converged: sophistication of vocabulary selected for an assignment, competence-related traits selected for an introduction, and competence-related content of brief, open-ended introductions. Conservatism indicators included: self-reported political affiliation (liberal-conservative), Right-Wing Authoritarianism (values-based conservatism) and Social Dominance Orientation (hierarchy-based conservatism). Internal meta-analyses revealed that liberals—but not conservatives—presented less competence to Black interaction partners than to White ones. The simple effect was small but significant across studies, and most reliable for the self-reported measure of conservatism. This possibly unintentional but ultimately patronizing competence-downshift suggests that well-intentioned liberal Whites may draw on low-status/competence stereotypes to affiliate with minorities.
Too much meritocracy (accuracy of performance ranking in contests), can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient; with sufficiently heterogeneous agents, discouragement & complacency effects further reduce the benefits of meritocracy
Morgan, John and Tumlinson, Justin and Várdy, Felix, The Limits of Meritocracy (July 20, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3216950
Abstract: We show that too much meritocracy, modeled as accuracy of performance ranking in contests, can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient. In contests with sufficiently heterogeneous agents, discouragement and complacency effects further reduce the benefits of meritocracy. Perfect meritocracy may be optimal only for intermediate levels of heterogeneity.
Keywords: Contest Theory; Mechanism Design; Auctions
JEL Classification: D82; D44
Abstract: We show that too much meritocracy, modeled as accuracy of performance ranking in contests, can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient. In contests with sufficiently heterogeneous agents, discouragement and complacency effects further reduce the benefits of meritocracy. Perfect meritocracy may be optimal only for intermediate levels of heterogeneity.
Keywords: Contest Theory; Mechanism Design; Auctions
JEL Classification: D82; D44
Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment
Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment. William H. Hampton, Nima Asadi3 & Ingrid R. Olson. Front. Psychol., 03 September 2018 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01545
Abstract: Income is a primary determinant of social mobility, career progression, and personal happiness. It has been shown to vary with demographic variables like age and education, with more oblique variables such as height, and with behaviors such as delay discounting, i.e., the propensity to devalue future rewards. However, the relative contribution of each these salary-linked variables to income is not known. Further, much of past research has often been underpowered, drawn from populations of convenience, and produced findings that have not always been replicated. Here we tested a large (n = 2,564), heterogeneous sample, and employed a novel analytic approach: using three machine learning algorithms to model the relationship between income and age, gender, height, race, zip code, education, occupation, and discounting. We found that delay discounting is more predictive of income than age, ethnicity, or height. We then used a holdout data set to test the robustness of our findings. We discuss the benefits of our methodological approach, as well as possible explanations and implications for the prominent relationship between delay discounting and income.
Abstract: Income is a primary determinant of social mobility, career progression, and personal happiness. It has been shown to vary with demographic variables like age and education, with more oblique variables such as height, and with behaviors such as delay discounting, i.e., the propensity to devalue future rewards. However, the relative contribution of each these salary-linked variables to income is not known. Further, much of past research has often been underpowered, drawn from populations of convenience, and produced findings that have not always been replicated. Here we tested a large (n = 2,564), heterogeneous sample, and employed a novel analytic approach: using three machine learning algorithms to model the relationship between income and age, gender, height, race, zip code, education, occupation, and discounting. We found that delay discounting is more predictive of income than age, ethnicity, or height. We then used a holdout data set to test the robustness of our findings. We discuss the benefits of our methodological approach, as well as possible explanations and implications for the prominent relationship between delay discounting and income.
How to crack pre-registration: There are methods for camouflaging a registered study as successful
How to crack pre-registration: Toward transparent and open science. Yuki Yamada. Front. Psychol. | doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01831
The reproducibility problem that exists in various academic fields has been discussed in recent years, and it has been revealed that scientists discreetly engage in several questionable research practices (QRPs). For example, the practice of hypothesizing after the results are known (HARKing) involves the reconstruction of hypotheses and stories after results have been obtained (Kerr, 1998) and thereby promotes the retrospective fabrication of favorable hypotheses (cf. Bem, 2004). P-hacking encompasses various untruthful manipulations for obtaining p-values less than 0.05 (Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011). Such unethical practices dramatically increase the number of false positive findings and thereby encourage the intentional fabrication of evidence as the basis of scientific knowledge and theory, which leads to individual profits for researchers.
Misuse of pre-registration
The preceding paragraphs provide a narrative about QRPs that can be effectively discouraged by pre-registration. However, a detailed examination of the current pre-registration system also reveals problems that this system cannot address. As mentioned, recognition of the value of pre-registration with respect to being able to confer reliability on research findings is becoming increasingly widespread. In terms of reputation management, researchers are motivated to improve their reputation regarding the credibility of their research (and themselves). A subset of researchers may attempt to misuse the pre-registration process to enhance their reputation even if their personality characteristics are not associated with readily engaging in data fabrication or falsification. Alternatively, certain situations may cause normal researchers to misuse this process on a momentary impulse (Motyl et al., 2017; Schoenherr, 2015). Their goals are to enhance the credibility of their research by pre-registering and to show the excellence of their hypothesis by presenting data that support that hypothesis.
There are methods for camouflaging a registered study as successful (van 't Veer & Giner-Sorolla, 2016). One such method is selective reporting, which is a type of data fabrication in which data that do not support the hypothesis are not reported (Goodman, Fanelli, & Ioannidis, 2016). Similarly, in the case of infinite re-experimenting, malicious researchers repeatedly perform the same experiment multiple times until the desired data to support the hypothesis are obtained and then report these data. Such QRPs cannot be completely prevented unless third parties can manage all of the data from experiments performed by researchers following registration. There is also a method that I call overissuing. Researchers who engage in overissuing pre-register a large number of experiments with extremely similar conditions and ultimately report only successful studies. This practice is difficult to discover by reviewers and editors who do not know a researcher’s overall registration status; to date, this approach has not been explicitly identified as a QRP.
Another method is an approach that I call pre-registering after the results are known (PARKing). Researchers engaging in this practice complete an experiment (possibly with infinite re-experimentation) before pre-registering and write an introduction that conforms to their previously obtained results. Because such researchers apparently get attractive results and misrepresent those results as having been obtained under pre-registration, the research can readily acquire false credibility and impact. Rigorous initial peer-reviews that require revision of protocols may be able to reduce PARKing to some extent, but it is not effective if the malicious researchers involved engage in overissuing or target journals with poor peer-review practices. Furthermore, even if all unprocessed data are shared in a repository, the time stamps of uploaded data files can easily be forged or tampered with in various ways, such as by changing the system date for the operating system that is handling the data file. Therefore, there is currently no method for journals or reviewers to detect PARKing. Because many research resources would be required to implement the unethical methods described above, given the discarding of data that do not fit researchers’ hypotheses, such methods can most easily be implemented by laboratories with abundant funds. If the aforementioned QRPs become rampant, their use could not only avoid decreases in false positives (which is a substantial advantage of pre-registration) but also accelerate the Matthew effect of rich people becoming richer (Merton, 1968).
It is easier to fabricate data and falsify results than to engage in cracking pre-registration; therefore, why should researchers attempt to crack pre-registration at all? The answer depends on the associated risk. Because data fabrication is a clear case of research misconduct and is subject to punishment, the risk associated with revelation is large. On the other hand, many of the cracking methods introduced here can be performed by simply extending general research practices. For example, suppose that a researcher conducted a paper-based questionnaire survey in the typical manner (without pre-registration) and had obtained significant results that supported his/her hypothesis and written a manuscript about this research. In this case, barriers to PARKing by using the introduction and method sections of the manuscript and subsequently publishing the full article appear to be low. Excel files for data aggregation can be recreated after pre-registration. If such cracking techniques have benefits that outweigh the difficulties and can be used with little risk, researchers who engage in these techniques will readily emerge.
The reproducibility problem that exists in various academic fields has been discussed in recent years, and it has been revealed that scientists discreetly engage in several questionable research practices (QRPs). For example, the practice of hypothesizing after the results are known (HARKing) involves the reconstruction of hypotheses and stories after results have been obtained (Kerr, 1998) and thereby promotes the retrospective fabrication of favorable hypotheses (cf. Bem, 2004). P-hacking encompasses various untruthful manipulations for obtaining p-values less than 0.05 (Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011). Such unethical practices dramatically increase the number of false positive findings and thereby encourage the intentional fabrication of evidence as the basis of scientific knowledge and theory, which leads to individual profits for researchers.
Misuse of pre-registration
The preceding paragraphs provide a narrative about QRPs that can be effectively discouraged by pre-registration. However, a detailed examination of the current pre-registration system also reveals problems that this system cannot address. As mentioned, recognition of the value of pre-registration with respect to being able to confer reliability on research findings is becoming increasingly widespread. In terms of reputation management, researchers are motivated to improve their reputation regarding the credibility of their research (and themselves). A subset of researchers may attempt to misuse the pre-registration process to enhance their reputation even if their personality characteristics are not associated with readily engaging in data fabrication or falsification. Alternatively, certain situations may cause normal researchers to misuse this process on a momentary impulse (Motyl et al., 2017; Schoenherr, 2015). Their goals are to enhance the credibility of their research by pre-registering and to show the excellence of their hypothesis by presenting data that support that hypothesis.
There are methods for camouflaging a registered study as successful (van 't Veer & Giner-Sorolla, 2016). One such method is selective reporting, which is a type of data fabrication in which data that do not support the hypothesis are not reported (Goodman, Fanelli, & Ioannidis, 2016). Similarly, in the case of infinite re-experimenting, malicious researchers repeatedly perform the same experiment multiple times until the desired data to support the hypothesis are obtained and then report these data. Such QRPs cannot be completely prevented unless third parties can manage all of the data from experiments performed by researchers following registration. There is also a method that I call overissuing. Researchers who engage in overissuing pre-register a large number of experiments with extremely similar conditions and ultimately report only successful studies. This practice is difficult to discover by reviewers and editors who do not know a researcher’s overall registration status; to date, this approach has not been explicitly identified as a QRP.
Another method is an approach that I call pre-registering after the results are known (PARKing). Researchers engaging in this practice complete an experiment (possibly with infinite re-experimentation) before pre-registering and write an introduction that conforms to their previously obtained results. Because such researchers apparently get attractive results and misrepresent those results as having been obtained under pre-registration, the research can readily acquire false credibility and impact. Rigorous initial peer-reviews that require revision of protocols may be able to reduce PARKing to some extent, but it is not effective if the malicious researchers involved engage in overissuing or target journals with poor peer-review practices. Furthermore, even if all unprocessed data are shared in a repository, the time stamps of uploaded data files can easily be forged or tampered with in various ways, such as by changing the system date for the operating system that is handling the data file. Therefore, there is currently no method for journals or reviewers to detect PARKing. Because many research resources would be required to implement the unethical methods described above, given the discarding of data that do not fit researchers’ hypotheses, such methods can most easily be implemented by laboratories with abundant funds. If the aforementioned QRPs become rampant, their use could not only avoid decreases in false positives (which is a substantial advantage of pre-registration) but also accelerate the Matthew effect of rich people becoming richer (Merton, 1968).
It is easier to fabricate data and falsify results than to engage in cracking pre-registration; therefore, why should researchers attempt to crack pre-registration at all? The answer depends on the associated risk. Because data fabrication is a clear case of research misconduct and is subject to punishment, the risk associated with revelation is large. On the other hand, many of the cracking methods introduced here can be performed by simply extending general research practices. For example, suppose that a researcher conducted a paper-based questionnaire survey in the typical manner (without pre-registration) and had obtained significant results that supported his/her hypothesis and written a manuscript about this research. In this case, barriers to PARKing by using the introduction and method sections of the manuscript and subsequently publishing the full article appear to be low. Excel files for data aggregation can be recreated after pre-registration. If such cracking techniques have benefits that outweigh the difficulties and can be used with little risk, researchers who engage in these techniques will readily emerge.
Global land change from 1982 to 2016: Contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally, tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level
Global land change from 1982 to 2016. Xiao-Peng Song, Matthew C. Hansen, Stephen V. Stehman, Peter V. Potapov, Alexandra Tyukavina, Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend. Nature, volume 560, pages639–643 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0411-9
Abstract: Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change 1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth’s energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and—in turn—affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services 1,2,3,4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally 5—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (−3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system. The dataset we developed may be used to improve the modelling of land-use changes, biogeochemical cycles and vegetation–climate interactions to advance our understanding of global environmental change 1,2,3,4,6.
Abstract: Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change 1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth’s energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and—in turn—affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services 1,2,3,4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally 5—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (−3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system. The dataset we developed may be used to improve the modelling of land-use changes, biogeochemical cycles and vegetation–climate interactions to advance our understanding of global environmental change 1,2,3,4,6.
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