Moderate Beer Intake and Cardiovascular Health in Overweight Individuals. Teresa Padro et al. Nutrients 2018, 10(9), 1237; https://doi.org/10.3390/nu10091237
Abstract: Consistent epidemiological evidence indicates that low-to-moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with cardiovascular event presentation, while high levels of alcohol intake are associated to increased cardiovascular risk. Little is known on the effects of moderate beer intake in the metabolic syndrome. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of moderate and regular daily intake of beer with meals in overweight (body mass index (BMI) of 28–29.9 kg/m2) or obese class 1 (BMI of 30–35 kg/m2) individuals without other cardiovascular risk factors (dyslipidemia, type 2-diabetes, hypertension) focusing on the effects related to changes in weight, in lipoproteins and vascular endothelial function. We have performed an open, prospective two-arms longitudinal crossover study to investigate the effects associated with regular consumption (four week) of alcohol-free-beer (0 g alcohol/day) or traditional-beer (30 g alcohol/day in men and 15 g alcohol/day in women) on anthropometrical and biochemical parameters, liver and kidney function biomarkers, and vascular endothelial function. After four-week intervention with traditional and/or alcohol-free beer, BMI did not show any significant change and values for liver and kidney functions were within the normal levels. Moderate traditional beer intake did not affect lipid levels—however it significantly increased the antioxidant capacity of high density lipoprotein (HDL). In addition, apoB-depleted serum (after the four-week intervention period) showed a higher potential to promote cholesterol efflux from macrophages. Beer consumption did not induce vascular endothelial dysfunction or stiffness. In summary, our results based on a 12-week prospective study provide evidence that moderate intake of beer (traditional and alcohol-free) does not exert vascular detrimental effects nor increases body weight in obese healthy individuals. In contrast, moderate intake of beer increases the anti-oxidative properties of HDL and facilitates cholesterol efflux, which may prevent lipid deposition in the vessel wall.
Keywords: cardiovascular-risk-factors; overweight; obesity; fermented-beverage; lipoprotein-oxidation; HDL-antioxidant-capacity; cholesterol-efflux; endothelial-function
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Why are conversations limited to about four people? A theoretical exploration of the conversation size constraint
Why are conversations limited to about four people? A theoretical exploration of the conversation size constraint. Jaimie Aron, Kremsa Jason Wilkes. Evolution and Human Behavior, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2018.09.004
Abstract: It is genuinely difficult to sustain a casual conversation that includes more than four speakers. Add a fifth speaker, and the conversation often quickly fissions into smaller groups. Termed ‘the dinner party problem,’ this four-person conversation size limit is believed to be caused by evolved cognitive constraints on human mentalizing capacities. In this view, people can mentally manage three other minds at any one time, leading to four-person conversations. But whereas existing work has posited and empirically tested alternative accounts of what drives the conversation size constraint, to our knowledge, no work has explored the question of why this capacity is specifically four? In this theoretical paper, we (a) review research demonstrating this cognitive constraint in sociality, (b) review the relevant working memory literature, which has explored the “why four” question at some length, and (c) we begin to pose possible answers to our specific social “why four” question. Using simple mathematical models of small-scale sociality, which we imbue with evolutionarily-relevant content, we present one novel possible explanation for the four-person conversation size constraint.
Abstract: It is genuinely difficult to sustain a casual conversation that includes more than four speakers. Add a fifth speaker, and the conversation often quickly fissions into smaller groups. Termed ‘the dinner party problem,’ this four-person conversation size limit is believed to be caused by evolved cognitive constraints on human mentalizing capacities. In this view, people can mentally manage three other minds at any one time, leading to four-person conversations. But whereas existing work has posited and empirically tested alternative accounts of what drives the conversation size constraint, to our knowledge, no work has explored the question of why this capacity is specifically four? In this theoretical paper, we (a) review research demonstrating this cognitive constraint in sociality, (b) review the relevant working memory literature, which has explored the “why four” question at some length, and (c) we begin to pose possible answers to our specific social “why four” question. Using simple mathematical models of small-scale sociality, which we imbue with evolutionarily-relevant content, we present one novel possible explanation for the four-person conversation size constraint.
The Myth of the Tech-Savvy Teen and the Clueless Senior Citizen: Revisiting Technology-Based Victimization Over the Life Course
The Myth of the Tech-Savvy Teen and the Clueless Senior Citizen: Revisiting Technology-Based Victimization Over the Life Course. Travis C. Pratt. Criminal Justice Review, https://doi.org/10.1177/0734016818763245
Abstract: It is a popular idea that younger people are more technology-savvy than their older counterparts. It is an equally popular idea that our oldest generation—senior citizens—is so clueless about new technological developments that they are the most vulnerable to technology-based forms of victimization. The present article, however, demonstrates that these ideas are myths and that it is the young—not the old—who are most at risk of victimization when technology is involved. This should come as no surprise since the age–victimization curve mirrors rather closely the age–crime curve, where the risk of victimization typically peaks in late adolescence and early adulthood and follows a steady decline thereafter. The risks associated with technologically based forms of victimization—at least in general—are no different. The implications of dispelling these myths for criminological research as we move forward are discussed in the context of the nature of “risky” behaviors at different stages of the life course.
Keywords: technology, victimization, life course
Abstract: It is a popular idea that younger people are more technology-savvy than their older counterparts. It is an equally popular idea that our oldest generation—senior citizens—is so clueless about new technological developments that they are the most vulnerable to technology-based forms of victimization. The present article, however, demonstrates that these ideas are myths and that it is the young—not the old—who are most at risk of victimization when technology is involved. This should come as no surprise since the age–victimization curve mirrors rather closely the age–crime curve, where the risk of victimization typically peaks in late adolescence and early adulthood and follows a steady decline thereafter. The risks associated with technologically based forms of victimization—at least in general—are no different. The implications of dispelling these myths for criminological research as we move forward are discussed in the context of the nature of “risky” behaviors at different stages of the life course.
Keywords: technology, victimization, life course
Why Too Many Political Science Findings Cannot Be Trusted and What We Can Do About It: Assessing, Explaining and Improving the Credibility of Our Discipline’s Evidence Base
Wuttke, Alexander. 2018. “Why Too Many Political Science Findings Cannot Be Trusted and What We Can Do About It: Assessing, Explaining and Improving the Credibility of Our Discipline’s Evidence Base.” SocArXiv. September 11. doi:10.31235/osf.io/dq87w
Abstract
While other scientific disciplines are currently undergoing “credibility revolutions”, political science should also face the uncomfortable question of how much we can trust the findings published in the discipline’s journals and presses. Theoretically, this commentary uses the concept of social dilemmas to show how scientists ¬in academia’s current incentive system work against their self-interest if they prioritize research credibility. Empirically, this article conducts a comprehensive review of meta-scientific research with a focus on quantitative political science, demonstrating that threats to the credibility of political science findings are systematic and real. Building on a framework to assess the credibility of scientific literatures, the review shows that a large fraction of the published literature makes itself inaccessible for intersubjective credibility assessments, fails tests of analytical robustness or shows patterns of systematic deviation from true population estimates. Still, the review also highlights the notable progress the discipline has made in recent years to secure research credibility. This commentary urges further steps toward this direction and proposes concrete institutional measures to better align individual researcher rationality with the collective good of verifiable, robust and valid scientific results, such as dedicated verification procedures and the implementation of pre-registration and results-blind peer reviewing.
Abstract
While other scientific disciplines are currently undergoing “credibility revolutions”, political science should also face the uncomfortable question of how much we can trust the findings published in the discipline’s journals and presses. Theoretically, this commentary uses the concept of social dilemmas to show how scientists ¬in academia’s current incentive system work against their self-interest if they prioritize research credibility. Empirically, this article conducts a comprehensive review of meta-scientific research with a focus on quantitative political science, demonstrating that threats to the credibility of political science findings are systematic and real. Building on a framework to assess the credibility of scientific literatures, the review shows that a large fraction of the published literature makes itself inaccessible for intersubjective credibility assessments, fails tests of analytical robustness or shows patterns of systematic deviation from true population estimates. Still, the review also highlights the notable progress the discipline has made in recent years to secure research credibility. This commentary urges further steps toward this direction and proposes concrete institutional measures to better align individual researcher rationality with the collective good of verifiable, robust and valid scientific results, such as dedicated verification procedures and the implementation of pre-registration and results-blind peer reviewing.
Monday, September 10, 2018
Found that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior & that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens; Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others
Willing to Evade: An Experimental Study of Italy and Denmark. Alice Guerra and Brooke Harrington. Copenhagen Business School, Department of Business and Politics. ttps://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/62eb/759a0b5079486771fa960ca140de6de783c4.pdf
Abstract: Tax evasion varies widely across countries and follows a geographical pattern: Southern European countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece, are plagued by higher evasion rates than Northern European countries. This suggests a testable research question: Can national identity explain North-South discrepancies in European tax compliance? We address this issue by conducting identical laboratory experiments in Denmark and Italy, two countries that lie not only at the opposite ends of the spectrum on tax compliance but also at the extremes of cultural differences and citizen trust in the government. We adopt a double-hurdle model to separate the decision of whether to evade or not (extensive margin), from the decision of how much to evade (intensive margin). This study innovates both theoretically and methodologically. Theoretically, it contributes in two ways to the literature on tax compliance: 1) by showing that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior; and 2) by showing that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens. Methodologically, the paper innovates by being the first to examine tax compliance in Denmark, and by testing the effects of an extended vector of covariates on both the intensive and extensive margins of tax behavior. Empirically, we find that--contrary to expectations--Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others. We find that individual evasion choices are strongly affected by risk aversion and individual perception about others' compliance behavior. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for tax policies and future research.
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Another, related interpretation is that discrepancies in tax behavior s are driven by differences in circumstances. Italians face the same circumstances as Dane s in the lab, but the circumstances Italians and Danes face outside the lab are very different. Danes can be highly motivated to evade taxes (even more than Italians) in situations where they have the possibility to do so (as in our experiment), but in mos t cases they are unable to cheat (e.g., because of the third-party reporting system and high tax enforcement they generally face). There is a crucial difference between being willing to evade taxes and being able to do so, and this depends upon the level o f tax enforcement and the reporting system in place. This explanation is coherent with the findings from the field experiment conducted by Kleven et al. (2011) in Denmark. The authors found that the tax evasion rate is close to zero for income subject to t hird-party reporting but substantial for self-reported income. Since most income in Denmark is subject to third-party reporting, the overall evasion rate is modest. In this respect, it would be interesting to ru n a similar field experiments with taxpayers in Italy to evaluate to extent to which compliance choices change under alternative reporting systems.
Overall, our experiment together with the recent cross-national laboratory experiments on tax behavior seem to reveal a common finding: that national identity, alone, cannot explain the North-South divergences in tax compliance. This result, which deserves further replication analyses, is encouraging because it suggests that tax policies and institutions play a crucial role in tax compliance. Indeed, fa ctors such as the traditional tax enforcement measures, redistribution policies, the threat of public disclosure of tax evasion, perception about others' compliance behavior, affect individual intrinsic motivation to fulfill fiscal obligations and should be used to mitigate evasion issues.
Abstract: Tax evasion varies widely across countries and follows a geographical pattern: Southern European countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece, are plagued by higher evasion rates than Northern European countries. This suggests a testable research question: Can national identity explain North-South discrepancies in European tax compliance? We address this issue by conducting identical laboratory experiments in Denmark and Italy, two countries that lie not only at the opposite ends of the spectrum on tax compliance but also at the extremes of cultural differences and citizen trust in the government. We adopt a double-hurdle model to separate the decision of whether to evade or not (extensive margin), from the decision of how much to evade (intensive margin). This study innovates both theoretically and methodologically. Theoretically, it contributes in two ways to the literature on tax compliance: 1) by showing that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior; and 2) by showing that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens. Methodologically, the paper innovates by being the first to examine tax compliance in Denmark, and by testing the effects of an extended vector of covariates on both the intensive and extensive margins of tax behavior. Empirically, we find that--contrary to expectations--Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others. We find that individual evasion choices are strongly affected by risk aversion and individual perception about others' compliance behavior. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for tax policies and future research.
---
Another, related interpretation is that discrepancies in tax behavior s are driven by differences in circumstances. Italians face the same circumstances as Dane s in the lab, but the circumstances Italians and Danes face outside the lab are very different. Danes can be highly motivated to evade taxes (even more than Italians) in situations where they have the possibility to do so (as in our experiment), but in mos t cases they are unable to cheat (e.g., because of the third-party reporting system and high tax enforcement they generally face). There is a crucial difference between being willing to evade taxes and being able to do so, and this depends upon the level o f tax enforcement and the reporting system in place. This explanation is coherent with the findings from the field experiment conducted by Kleven et al. (2011) in Denmark. The authors found that the tax evasion rate is close to zero for income subject to t hird-party reporting but substantial for self-reported income. Since most income in Denmark is subject to third-party reporting, the overall evasion rate is modest. In this respect, it would be interesting to ru n a similar field experiments with taxpayers in Italy to evaluate to extent to which compliance choices change under alternative reporting systems.
Overall, our experiment together with the recent cross-national laboratory experiments on tax behavior seem to reveal a common finding: that national identity, alone, cannot explain the North-South divergences in tax compliance. This result, which deserves further replication analyses, is encouraging because it suggests that tax policies and institutions play a crucial role in tax compliance. Indeed, fa ctors such as the traditional tax enforcement measures, redistribution policies, the threat of public disclosure of tax evasion, perception about others' compliance behavior, affect individual intrinsic motivation to fulfill fiscal obligations and should be used to mitigate evasion issues.
Rolf Degen summarizing: The negative beats the positive in terms of retweetability
Retweet: A popular information diffusion mechanism – A survey paper. Syeda Nadia Firdaus, Chen Ding, Alireza Sadeghian. Online Social Networks and Media, Volume 6, June 2018, Pages 26-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.osnem.2018.04.001
Abstract: Retweeting or reposting a message is considered as an easily available information diffusion mechanism provided by Twitter or any other social network sites. By finding out why a user retweets a tweet, or predicting whether a tweet will be retweeted by a user, we can not only understand user's behavior or interest better, but also understand how information is diffused on the online social network. In this survey paper, we have explored various research works related to retweet prediction and retweeting behavior analysis, investigated the underlying reasons for spreading information in forms of retweets, and discussed the challenges of retweet related research. The purpose of the paper is to provide an overview of researches in retweet prediction area, which can be used as an introductory guide for future researchers in this field.
Abstract: Retweeting or reposting a message is considered as an easily available information diffusion mechanism provided by Twitter or any other social network sites. By finding out why a user retweets a tweet, or predicting whether a tweet will be retweeted by a user, we can not only understand user's behavior or interest better, but also understand how information is diffused on the online social network. In this survey paper, we have explored various research works related to retweet prediction and retweeting behavior analysis, investigated the underlying reasons for spreading information in forms of retweets, and discussed the challenges of retweet related research. The purpose of the paper is to provide an overview of researches in retweet prediction area, which can be used as an introductory guide for future researchers in this field.
The current institutional success/gov't quality of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of successful historical taxation
Colonial Revenue Extraction and Modern Day Government Quality in the British Empire. Rasmus Broms. World Development, Volume 90, February 2017, Pages 269-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.10.003
Highlights
• Colonial revenue level is linked to modern day government quality in British colonies.
• The association is stronger when neo-European colonies are excluded.
• These findings call the extractive institutions hypothesis into question.
Summary: The relationship between the extent of government revenue a government collects, primarily in the form of taxation, and its overall quality has increasingly been identified as a key factor for successful state building, good institutions, and—by extension—general development. Initially deriving from historical research on Western Europe, this process is expected to unfold slowly over time. This study tests the claim that more extensive revenue collection has long-lasting and positive consequences for government quality in a developmental setting. Using fiscal records from British colonies, results from cross-colony/country regression analyses reveal that higher colonial income-adjusted revenue levels during the early twentieth century can be linked to higher government quality today. This relationship is substantial and robust to several specifications of both colonial revenue and modern day government quality, and remains significant under control for a range of rivaling explanations. The results support the notion that the current institutional success of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of historical revenue extraction.
Highlights
• Colonial revenue level is linked to modern day government quality in British colonies.
• The association is stronger when neo-European colonies are excluded.
• These findings call the extractive institutions hypothesis into question.
Summary: The relationship between the extent of government revenue a government collects, primarily in the form of taxation, and its overall quality has increasingly been identified as a key factor for successful state building, good institutions, and—by extension—general development. Initially deriving from historical research on Western Europe, this process is expected to unfold slowly over time. This study tests the claim that more extensive revenue collection has long-lasting and positive consequences for government quality in a developmental setting. Using fiscal records from British colonies, results from cross-colony/country regression analyses reveal that higher colonial income-adjusted revenue levels during the early twentieth century can be linked to higher government quality today. This relationship is substantial and robust to several specifications of both colonial revenue and modern day government quality, and remains significant under control for a range of rivaling explanations. The results support the notion that the current institutional success of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of historical revenue extraction.
People had self-insight into their momentary extraversion, conscientiousness, & likely neuroticism, suggesting that people can accurately detect fluctuations in some aspects of their personality; but not so much for agreeableness
Sun, Jessie, and Simine Vazire. 2018. “Do People Know What They’re Like in the Moment?.” PsyArXiv. September 9. doi:10.31234/osf.io/sg5aw
Abstract: Knowing yourself requires knowing not just what you are like in general (trait self-knowledge), but also how your personality fluctuates from moment to moment (state self-knowledge). We examined this latter form of self-knowledge. Participants (248 people; 2,938 observations) wore the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR), an unobtrusive audio recorder, and completed experience sampling (ESM) self-reports of their personality states four times each day for one week. We estimated state self-knowledge by comparing self-reported personality states to consensual observer ratings of personality states coded from the EAR files, which formed the criterion for what participants were “actually” like in the moment. People had self-insight into their momentary extraversion, conscientiousness, and likely neuroticism, suggesting that people can accurately detect fluctuations in some aspects of their personality. However, the evidence for self-insight was weaker for agreeableness. This apparent self-ignorance may be partly responsible for interpersonal problems and for blind spots in trait self-knowledge.
Abstract: Knowing yourself requires knowing not just what you are like in general (trait self-knowledge), but also how your personality fluctuates from moment to moment (state self-knowledge). We examined this latter form of self-knowledge. Participants (248 people; 2,938 observations) wore the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR), an unobtrusive audio recorder, and completed experience sampling (ESM) self-reports of their personality states four times each day for one week. We estimated state self-knowledge by comparing self-reported personality states to consensual observer ratings of personality states coded from the EAR files, which formed the criterion for what participants were “actually” like in the moment. People had self-insight into their momentary extraversion, conscientiousness, and likely neuroticism, suggesting that people can accurately detect fluctuations in some aspects of their personality. However, the evidence for self-insight was weaker for agreeableness. This apparent self-ignorance may be partly responsible for interpersonal problems and for blind spots in trait self-knowledge.
Sunday, September 9, 2018
Significant correlations between the numerous variables and a main effect of sexual disgust, extraversion, and sensation seeking on enjoyment of horror films
So Disgusting, But You Can't Take Your Eyes Off the Screen: Can Personality Traits and Disgust Sensitivity Influence People's Love for Horror Movies? Ashley Marie Dillard. Western Carolina University, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2018. 10788427. https://search.proquest.com/openview/1ed112229e7f7dc302084b163680e811/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
Abstract: Personality traits have been found to be associated with disgust sensitivity. For example, sexual and moral disgust have been found to be strongly correlated with the honesty-humility factor in the HEXACO model (Tybur & de Vries, 2013). However, questions have been raised as to what makes some individuals find disgusting horror movies enjoyable, while others are left mortified. To better understand these differences, participants were assessed using the HEXACO-PI-R-60, the Three-Domain Disgust Scale, the Brief Sensation Seeking Scale, and an adapted Enjoyment of Frightening Films measure within the current study. Ultimately, the present study explored if there were any individual differences among people on personality and disgust sensitivity measures in regard to preference for horror movies. Nine out of sixteen of my hypotheses were supported within this study. The results revealed significant correlations between the numerous variables and a main effect of sexual disgust, extraversion, and sensation seeking on enjoyment of frightening films.
Abstract: Personality traits have been found to be associated with disgust sensitivity. For example, sexual and moral disgust have been found to be strongly correlated with the honesty-humility factor in the HEXACO model (Tybur & de Vries, 2013). However, questions have been raised as to what makes some individuals find disgusting horror movies enjoyable, while others are left mortified. To better understand these differences, participants were assessed using the HEXACO-PI-R-60, the Three-Domain Disgust Scale, the Brief Sensation Seeking Scale, and an adapted Enjoyment of Frightening Films measure within the current study. Ultimately, the present study explored if there were any individual differences among people on personality and disgust sensitivity measures in regard to preference for horror movies. Nine out of sixteen of my hypotheses were supported within this study. The results revealed significant correlations between the numerous variables and a main effect of sexual disgust, extraversion, and sensation seeking on enjoyment of frightening films.
In the four-cycle period 2006-2012, 89% of Americans were in a highly competitive jurisdiction for at least one office; more Americans witness competition than citizens of Canada or the UK, other nations with SMSP-based systems
Bernard L. Fraga and Eitan D. Hersh (2018), "Are Americans Stuck in Uncompetitive Enclaves? An Appraisal of U.S. Electoral Competition", Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 13: No. 3, pp 291-311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00017161
Abstract: Most elections in the United States are not close, which has raised concerns among social scientists and reform advocates about the vibrancy of American democracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that while individual elections are often uncompetitive, hierarchical, temporal, and geographic variation in the locus of competition results in most of the country regularly experiencing close elections. In the four-cycle period between 2006 and 2012, 89% of Americans were in a highly competitive jurisdiction for at least one office. Since 1914, about half the states have never gone more than four election cycles without a close statewide contest. More Americans witness competition than citizens of Canada or the UK, other nations with SMSP-based systems. The dispersed competition we find also results in nearly all Americans being represented by both political parties for different offices.
Subjects: Competitive Marketing Strategy, Elections:Electoral behavior, Elections:Electoral institutions, Elections:Voting behavior, Elections:Voting theory, Elections, Electoral behavior, Electoral institutions, Federalism, Political participation, Political parties, Representation, Voting behavior, Voting theory
Keywords: Elections, competition, political geography
Abstract: Most elections in the United States are not close, which has raised concerns among social scientists and reform advocates about the vibrancy of American democracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that while individual elections are often uncompetitive, hierarchical, temporal, and geographic variation in the locus of competition results in most of the country regularly experiencing close elections. In the four-cycle period between 2006 and 2012, 89% of Americans were in a highly competitive jurisdiction for at least one office. Since 1914, about half the states have never gone more than four election cycles without a close statewide contest. More Americans witness competition than citizens of Canada or the UK, other nations with SMSP-based systems. The dispersed competition we find also results in nearly all Americans being represented by both political parties for different offices.
Subjects: Competitive Marketing Strategy, Elections:Electoral behavior, Elections:Electoral institutions, Elections:Voting behavior, Elections:Voting theory, Elections, Electoral behavior, Electoral institutions, Federalism, Political participation, Political parties, Representation, Voting behavior, Voting theory
Keywords: Elections, competition, political geography
Is it time to kill the detection wizard? Emotional intelligence does not facilitate deception detection
Is it time to kill the detection wizard? Emotional intelligence does not facilitate deception detection. Nicolas Roulin, Marguerite Ternes. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 137, 15 January 2019, Pages 131-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.08.020
Highlights
• Individuals high on emotional intelligence (EI) rely more on non-verbal information when attempting to detect deception.
• EI and reliance on non-verbal information are unrelated to detection accuracy.
• The popular notion that some people are naturally better at deception detection, or “detection wizards,” should be revisited.
Abstract: Being able to identify if someone is telling the truth or lying is essential in many social situations, for instance in police interrogations or employment interviews. Unfortunately, people are generally poor at lie detection. Some researchers have argued that a small category of individuals are detection wizards who can achieve substantially higher detection accuracy because they have high levels of emotional intelligence (EI) and are better able to identify non-verbal cues to deceit. These propositions have been popularized in the media and are appealing to some practitioners, but are based on very limited empirical evidence. We conducted three experimental studies to test these propositions, relying on different samples and using both trait and ability measures of EI. We measured deception detection using different approaches (in-person and video-based) and contexts (social interaction and job interview). One study measured skepticism, and another used eye-tracking technology to capture participants' reliance on non-verbal information. Results showed that high-EI individuals indeed rely more on non-verbal information. However, EI, skepticism, and the use of non-verbal cues are unrelated to deception detection. We thus argue that detection wizards are likely a myth, and it would be more productive to focus on evidence-based methods to improve deception detection.
Highlights
• Individuals high on emotional intelligence (EI) rely more on non-verbal information when attempting to detect deception.
• EI and reliance on non-verbal information are unrelated to detection accuracy.
• The popular notion that some people are naturally better at deception detection, or “detection wizards,” should be revisited.
Abstract: Being able to identify if someone is telling the truth or lying is essential in many social situations, for instance in police interrogations or employment interviews. Unfortunately, people are generally poor at lie detection. Some researchers have argued that a small category of individuals are detection wizards who can achieve substantially higher detection accuracy because they have high levels of emotional intelligence (EI) and are better able to identify non-verbal cues to deceit. These propositions have been popularized in the media and are appealing to some practitioners, but are based on very limited empirical evidence. We conducted three experimental studies to test these propositions, relying on different samples and using both trait and ability measures of EI. We measured deception detection using different approaches (in-person and video-based) and contexts (social interaction and job interview). One study measured skepticism, and another used eye-tracking technology to capture participants' reliance on non-verbal information. Results showed that high-EI individuals indeed rely more on non-verbal information. However, EI, skepticism, and the use of non-verbal cues are unrelated to deception detection. We thus argue that detection wizards are likely a myth, and it would be more productive to focus on evidence-based methods to improve deception detection.
Chivalry and attractiveness bias in police officer forensic judgments in Israel: Female offenders were treated more forgivingly than male offenders
Chivalry and attractiveness bias in police officer forensic judgments in Israel. Mally Shechory Bitton & Liza Zvi. The Journal of Social Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2018.1509043
ABSTRACT: The chivalry hypothesis and attractiveness bias were evaluated among 323 police officers and 364 students, serving as a control group. The participants were asked to read a description of a swindle, where the offender was either physically attractive or unattractive. They then had to assign a punishment to the offender and judge the blame ascribed to both offender and victim. The findings showed that the offender’s sex, more than his or her external appearance, affects differences in punishment severity. Female offenders were treated more forgivingly than male offenders. Nonetheless, analysis of blame attributions shows that attractive offenders are blamed more than unattractive offenders. Women were also found to dispense severe punishments more than men.
KEYWORDS: Attractiveness bias, chivalry hypothesis, judgments offenders, police officers
ABSTRACT: The chivalry hypothesis and attractiveness bias were evaluated among 323 police officers and 364 students, serving as a control group. The participants were asked to read a description of a swindle, where the offender was either physically attractive or unattractive. They then had to assign a punishment to the offender and judge the blame ascribed to both offender and victim. The findings showed that the offender’s sex, more than his or her external appearance, affects differences in punishment severity. Female offenders were treated more forgivingly than male offenders. Nonetheless, analysis of blame attributions shows that attractive offenders are blamed more than unattractive offenders. Women were also found to dispense severe punishments more than men.
KEYWORDS: Attractiveness bias, chivalry hypothesis, judgments offenders, police officers
Saturday, September 8, 2018
Even on “unfavorable” facts that are inconvenient to the respondent’s political party, more-certain respondents are more likely to answer correctly; where misperceptions exist, Democrats & Republicans perform poorly on the same questions
Self-Awareness of Political Knowledge. Matthew H. Graham. Political Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9499-8
Abstract: Despite widespread concern over false beliefs about politically-relevant facts, little is known about how strongly Americans believe their answers to poll questions. I propose a conceptual framework for characterizing survey responses about facts: self-awareness, or how well people can assess their own knowledge. I measure self-awareness of political knowledge by eliciting respondent certainty about answers to 24 factual questions about politics. Even on “unfavorable” facts that are inconvenient to the respondent’s political party, more-certain respondents are more likely to answer correctly. Because people are somewhat aware of their ignorance, respondents usually describe their incorrect responses as low-certainty guesses, not high-certainty beliefs. Where misperceptions exist, they tend to be bipartisan: Democrats and Republicans perform poorly on the same questions and explain their answers using similar points of reference.
Abstract: Despite widespread concern over false beliefs about politically-relevant facts, little is known about how strongly Americans believe their answers to poll questions. I propose a conceptual framework for characterizing survey responses about facts: self-awareness, or how well people can assess their own knowledge. I measure self-awareness of political knowledge by eliciting respondent certainty about answers to 24 factual questions about politics. Even on “unfavorable” facts that are inconvenient to the respondent’s political party, more-certain respondents are more likely to answer correctly. Because people are somewhat aware of their ignorance, respondents usually describe their incorrect responses as low-certainty guesses, not high-certainty beliefs. Where misperceptions exist, they tend to be bipartisan: Democrats and Republicans perform poorly on the same questions and explain their answers using similar points of reference.
Overall, the overwhelming majority of incarcerated women reported negative emotional experiences of crime; men have more complex, mixed responses
Women offenders' emotional experience of crime. Kayley Ciesla, Maria Ioannou, Laura Hammond. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, https://doi.org/10.1002/jip.1512
Abstract: The main aim of the study was to examine the emotional experiences of crime amongst women offenders. With a mean age of 36.40 years (SD = 11.12), 128 women offenders completed a questionnaire exploring emotions they had experienced whilst committing a crime. Participants included incarcerated individuals as well as those in community‐based projects. Smallest space analysis of the emotions highlighted four key themes; depression, distress, elation, and calm. Results reflected the circumplex model of emotions but highlighted strong distinction between pleasure and displeasure. Overall, the majority of women reported negative emotional experiences of crime. Understanding how individuals felt during their crime commission offers alternative perspectives of criminal behaviour and a framework for future explorations. Results offer crucial insights for policy makers, criminal investigations, and therapeutic treatment options.
Abstract: The main aim of the study was to examine the emotional experiences of crime amongst women offenders. With a mean age of 36.40 years (SD = 11.12), 128 women offenders completed a questionnaire exploring emotions they had experienced whilst committing a crime. Participants included incarcerated individuals as well as those in community‐based projects. Smallest space analysis of the emotions highlighted four key themes; depression, distress, elation, and calm. Results reflected the circumplex model of emotions but highlighted strong distinction between pleasure and displeasure. Overall, the majority of women reported negative emotional experiences of crime. Understanding how individuals felt during their crime commission offers alternative perspectives of criminal behaviour and a framework for future explorations. Results offer crucial insights for policy makers, criminal investigations, and therapeutic treatment options.
Compared with heterosexuals, lesbians/gays had higher odds of reporting suicide acceptability if one goes bankrupt, dishonors family, or is tired of living
Suicide Acceptability and Sexual Orientation: Results from the General Social Survey 2008–2014. John R. Blosnich, Megan C. Lytle, Robert W. S. Coulter & Darren L. Whitfield. Archives of Suicide Research, Volume 22, 2018 - Issue 4, Pages 542-554. https://doi.org/10.1080/13811118.2017.1377132
Abstract: Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals have higher prevalence of lifetime suicide ideation and attempt than their heterosexual peers, but less is known about differences in suicide acceptability (i.e., believing suicide is a viable answer to a problem). The purpose of this study was to examine if LGB adults had greater suicide acceptability than heterosexual adults. A total of 4 items in the General Social Surveys from 2008 to 2014 assessed whether a nationally representative sample of U.S. adult respondents (n = 5,037) thought it acceptable for individuals to kill themselves if one: goes bankrupt, dishonors their family, is tired of living, or has an incurable disease. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of sexual orientation with suicide acceptability items after adjusting for confounding factors. Compared with heterosexuals, lesbians/gays had higher odds of reporting suicide acceptability if one goes bankrupt (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.06, 3.46), dishonors family (OR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.28), or is tired of living (OR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.30, 3.90). Bisexual and heterosexual groups were largely similar across the 4 suicide acceptability items. No sexual orientation differences were observed for reporting acceptability of suicide in the instance of an incurable disease. Post hoc analyses revealed significant interactions between sex and sexual orientation, such that differences in suicide acceptability seemed to be driven by sexual minority women rather than by sexual minority men. Suicide acceptability differs by sexual orientation, and community-level interventions around changing norms about suicide may be a prevention strategy for sexual minority individuals.
Abstract: Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals have higher prevalence of lifetime suicide ideation and attempt than their heterosexual peers, but less is known about differences in suicide acceptability (i.e., believing suicide is a viable answer to a problem). The purpose of this study was to examine if LGB adults had greater suicide acceptability than heterosexual adults. A total of 4 items in the General Social Surveys from 2008 to 2014 assessed whether a nationally representative sample of U.S. adult respondents (n = 5,037) thought it acceptable for individuals to kill themselves if one: goes bankrupt, dishonors their family, is tired of living, or has an incurable disease. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of sexual orientation with suicide acceptability items after adjusting for confounding factors. Compared with heterosexuals, lesbians/gays had higher odds of reporting suicide acceptability if one goes bankrupt (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.06, 3.46), dishonors family (OR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.28), or is tired of living (OR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.30, 3.90). Bisexual and heterosexual groups were largely similar across the 4 suicide acceptability items. No sexual orientation differences were observed for reporting acceptability of suicide in the instance of an incurable disease. Post hoc analyses revealed significant interactions between sex and sexual orientation, such that differences in suicide acceptability seemed to be driven by sexual minority women rather than by sexual minority men. Suicide acceptability differs by sexual orientation, and community-level interventions around changing norms about suicide may be a prevention strategy for sexual minority individuals.
Friday, September 7, 2018
Liberals—but not conservatives—presented less competence to Black interaction partners than to White ones in sophistication of vocabulary selected for assignment, competence-related traits selected for introduction, & competence-related content of open-ended introductions
Dupree, Cydney H., and Susan Fiske. 2018. “Self-presentation in Interracial Settings: The Competence Downshift by White Liberals.” PsyArXiv. September 7. doi:10.31234/osf.io/pv2ab
Abstract: Most Whites, particularly socio-political liberals, now endorse racial equality. Archival and experimental research reveals a subtle but reliable ironic consequence: White liberals self-present less competence to minorities than to other Whites—that is, they patronize minorities stereotyped as lower status and less competent. In an initial archival demonstration of the competence downshift, Study 1 examined the content of White Republican and Democratic presidential candidates’ campaign speeches. Although Republican candidates did not significantly shift language based on audience racial composition, Democratic candidates used less competence-related language to minority audiences than to White audiences. Across five experiments (total N = 2,157), White participants responded to a Black or White hypothetical (Studies 2, 3, 4, S1) or ostensibly real (Study 5) interaction partner. Three indicators of self-presentation converged: sophistication of vocabulary selected for an assignment, competence-related traits selected for an introduction, and competence-related content of brief, open-ended introductions. Conservatism indicators included: self-reported political affiliation (liberal-conservative), Right-Wing Authoritarianism (values-based conservatism) and Social Dominance Orientation (hierarchy-based conservatism). Internal meta-analyses revealed that liberals—but not conservatives—presented less competence to Black interaction partners than to White ones. The simple effect was small but significant across studies, and most reliable for the self-reported measure of conservatism. This possibly unintentional but ultimately patronizing competence-downshift suggests that well-intentioned liberal Whites may draw on low-status/competence stereotypes to affiliate with minorities.
Abstract: Most Whites, particularly socio-political liberals, now endorse racial equality. Archival and experimental research reveals a subtle but reliable ironic consequence: White liberals self-present less competence to minorities than to other Whites—that is, they patronize minorities stereotyped as lower status and less competent. In an initial archival demonstration of the competence downshift, Study 1 examined the content of White Republican and Democratic presidential candidates’ campaign speeches. Although Republican candidates did not significantly shift language based on audience racial composition, Democratic candidates used less competence-related language to minority audiences than to White audiences. Across five experiments (total N = 2,157), White participants responded to a Black or White hypothetical (Studies 2, 3, 4, S1) or ostensibly real (Study 5) interaction partner. Three indicators of self-presentation converged: sophistication of vocabulary selected for an assignment, competence-related traits selected for an introduction, and competence-related content of brief, open-ended introductions. Conservatism indicators included: self-reported political affiliation (liberal-conservative), Right-Wing Authoritarianism (values-based conservatism) and Social Dominance Orientation (hierarchy-based conservatism). Internal meta-analyses revealed that liberals—but not conservatives—presented less competence to Black interaction partners than to White ones. The simple effect was small but significant across studies, and most reliable for the self-reported measure of conservatism. This possibly unintentional but ultimately patronizing competence-downshift suggests that well-intentioned liberal Whites may draw on low-status/competence stereotypes to affiliate with minorities.
Too much meritocracy (accuracy of performance ranking in contests), can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient; with sufficiently heterogeneous agents, discouragement & complacency effects further reduce the benefits of meritocracy
Morgan, John and Tumlinson, Justin and Várdy, Felix, The Limits of Meritocracy (July 20, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3216950
Abstract: We show that too much meritocracy, modeled as accuracy of performance ranking in contests, can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient. In contests with sufficiently heterogeneous agents, discouragement and complacency effects further reduce the benefits of meritocracy. Perfect meritocracy may be optimal only for intermediate levels of heterogeneity.
Keywords: Contest Theory; Mechanism Design; Auctions
JEL Classification: D82; D44
Abstract: We show that too much meritocracy, modeled as accuracy of performance ranking in contests, can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient. In contests with sufficiently heterogeneous agents, discouragement and complacency effects further reduce the benefits of meritocracy. Perfect meritocracy may be optimal only for intermediate levels of heterogeneity.
Keywords: Contest Theory; Mechanism Design; Auctions
JEL Classification: D82; D44
Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment
Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment. William H. Hampton, Nima Asadi3 & Ingrid R. Olson. Front. Psychol., 03 September 2018 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01545
Abstract: Income is a primary determinant of social mobility, career progression, and personal happiness. It has been shown to vary with demographic variables like age and education, with more oblique variables such as height, and with behaviors such as delay discounting, i.e., the propensity to devalue future rewards. However, the relative contribution of each these salary-linked variables to income is not known. Further, much of past research has often been underpowered, drawn from populations of convenience, and produced findings that have not always been replicated. Here we tested a large (n = 2,564), heterogeneous sample, and employed a novel analytic approach: using three machine learning algorithms to model the relationship between income and age, gender, height, race, zip code, education, occupation, and discounting. We found that delay discounting is more predictive of income than age, ethnicity, or height. We then used a holdout data set to test the robustness of our findings. We discuss the benefits of our methodological approach, as well as possible explanations and implications for the prominent relationship between delay discounting and income.
Abstract: Income is a primary determinant of social mobility, career progression, and personal happiness. It has been shown to vary with demographic variables like age and education, with more oblique variables such as height, and with behaviors such as delay discounting, i.e., the propensity to devalue future rewards. However, the relative contribution of each these salary-linked variables to income is not known. Further, much of past research has often been underpowered, drawn from populations of convenience, and produced findings that have not always been replicated. Here we tested a large (n = 2,564), heterogeneous sample, and employed a novel analytic approach: using three machine learning algorithms to model the relationship between income and age, gender, height, race, zip code, education, occupation, and discounting. We found that delay discounting is more predictive of income than age, ethnicity, or height. We then used a holdout data set to test the robustness of our findings. We discuss the benefits of our methodological approach, as well as possible explanations and implications for the prominent relationship between delay discounting and income.
How to crack pre-registration: There are methods for camouflaging a registered study as successful
How to crack pre-registration: Toward transparent and open science. Yuki Yamada. Front. Psychol. | doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01831
The reproducibility problem that exists in various academic fields has been discussed in recent years, and it has been revealed that scientists discreetly engage in several questionable research practices (QRPs). For example, the practice of hypothesizing after the results are known (HARKing) involves the reconstruction of hypotheses and stories after results have been obtained (Kerr, 1998) and thereby promotes the retrospective fabrication of favorable hypotheses (cf. Bem, 2004). P-hacking encompasses various untruthful manipulations for obtaining p-values less than 0.05 (Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011). Such unethical practices dramatically increase the number of false positive findings and thereby encourage the intentional fabrication of evidence as the basis of scientific knowledge and theory, which leads to individual profits for researchers.
Misuse of pre-registration
The preceding paragraphs provide a narrative about QRPs that can be effectively discouraged by pre-registration. However, a detailed examination of the current pre-registration system also reveals problems that this system cannot address. As mentioned, recognition of the value of pre-registration with respect to being able to confer reliability on research findings is becoming increasingly widespread. In terms of reputation management, researchers are motivated to improve their reputation regarding the credibility of their research (and themselves). A subset of researchers may attempt to misuse the pre-registration process to enhance their reputation even if their personality characteristics are not associated with readily engaging in data fabrication or falsification. Alternatively, certain situations may cause normal researchers to misuse this process on a momentary impulse (Motyl et al., 2017; Schoenherr, 2015). Their goals are to enhance the credibility of their research by pre-registering and to show the excellence of their hypothesis by presenting data that support that hypothesis.
There are methods for camouflaging a registered study as successful (van 't Veer & Giner-Sorolla, 2016). One such method is selective reporting, which is a type of data fabrication in which data that do not support the hypothesis are not reported (Goodman, Fanelli, & Ioannidis, 2016). Similarly, in the case of infinite re-experimenting, malicious researchers repeatedly perform the same experiment multiple times until the desired data to support the hypothesis are obtained and then report these data. Such QRPs cannot be completely prevented unless third parties can manage all of the data from experiments performed by researchers following registration. There is also a method that I call overissuing. Researchers who engage in overissuing pre-register a large number of experiments with extremely similar conditions and ultimately report only successful studies. This practice is difficult to discover by reviewers and editors who do not know a researcher’s overall registration status; to date, this approach has not been explicitly identified as a QRP.
Another method is an approach that I call pre-registering after the results are known (PARKing). Researchers engaging in this practice complete an experiment (possibly with infinite re-experimentation) before pre-registering and write an introduction that conforms to their previously obtained results. Because such researchers apparently get attractive results and misrepresent those results as having been obtained under pre-registration, the research can readily acquire false credibility and impact. Rigorous initial peer-reviews that require revision of protocols may be able to reduce PARKing to some extent, but it is not effective if the malicious researchers involved engage in overissuing or target journals with poor peer-review practices. Furthermore, even if all unprocessed data are shared in a repository, the time stamps of uploaded data files can easily be forged or tampered with in various ways, such as by changing the system date for the operating system that is handling the data file. Therefore, there is currently no method for journals or reviewers to detect PARKing. Because many research resources would be required to implement the unethical methods described above, given the discarding of data that do not fit researchers’ hypotheses, such methods can most easily be implemented by laboratories with abundant funds. If the aforementioned QRPs become rampant, their use could not only avoid decreases in false positives (which is a substantial advantage of pre-registration) but also accelerate the Matthew effect of rich people becoming richer (Merton, 1968).
It is easier to fabricate data and falsify results than to engage in cracking pre-registration; therefore, why should researchers attempt to crack pre-registration at all? The answer depends on the associated risk. Because data fabrication is a clear case of research misconduct and is subject to punishment, the risk associated with revelation is large. On the other hand, many of the cracking methods introduced here can be performed by simply extending general research practices. For example, suppose that a researcher conducted a paper-based questionnaire survey in the typical manner (without pre-registration) and had obtained significant results that supported his/her hypothesis and written a manuscript about this research. In this case, barriers to PARKing by using the introduction and method sections of the manuscript and subsequently publishing the full article appear to be low. Excel files for data aggregation can be recreated after pre-registration. If such cracking techniques have benefits that outweigh the difficulties and can be used with little risk, researchers who engage in these techniques will readily emerge.
The reproducibility problem that exists in various academic fields has been discussed in recent years, and it has been revealed that scientists discreetly engage in several questionable research practices (QRPs). For example, the practice of hypothesizing after the results are known (HARKing) involves the reconstruction of hypotheses and stories after results have been obtained (Kerr, 1998) and thereby promotes the retrospective fabrication of favorable hypotheses (cf. Bem, 2004). P-hacking encompasses various untruthful manipulations for obtaining p-values less than 0.05 (Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011). Such unethical practices dramatically increase the number of false positive findings and thereby encourage the intentional fabrication of evidence as the basis of scientific knowledge and theory, which leads to individual profits for researchers.
Misuse of pre-registration
The preceding paragraphs provide a narrative about QRPs that can be effectively discouraged by pre-registration. However, a detailed examination of the current pre-registration system also reveals problems that this system cannot address. As mentioned, recognition of the value of pre-registration with respect to being able to confer reliability on research findings is becoming increasingly widespread. In terms of reputation management, researchers are motivated to improve their reputation regarding the credibility of their research (and themselves). A subset of researchers may attempt to misuse the pre-registration process to enhance their reputation even if their personality characteristics are not associated with readily engaging in data fabrication or falsification. Alternatively, certain situations may cause normal researchers to misuse this process on a momentary impulse (Motyl et al., 2017; Schoenherr, 2015). Their goals are to enhance the credibility of their research by pre-registering and to show the excellence of their hypothesis by presenting data that support that hypothesis.
There are methods for camouflaging a registered study as successful (van 't Veer & Giner-Sorolla, 2016). One such method is selective reporting, which is a type of data fabrication in which data that do not support the hypothesis are not reported (Goodman, Fanelli, & Ioannidis, 2016). Similarly, in the case of infinite re-experimenting, malicious researchers repeatedly perform the same experiment multiple times until the desired data to support the hypothesis are obtained and then report these data. Such QRPs cannot be completely prevented unless third parties can manage all of the data from experiments performed by researchers following registration. There is also a method that I call overissuing. Researchers who engage in overissuing pre-register a large number of experiments with extremely similar conditions and ultimately report only successful studies. This practice is difficult to discover by reviewers and editors who do not know a researcher’s overall registration status; to date, this approach has not been explicitly identified as a QRP.
Another method is an approach that I call pre-registering after the results are known (PARKing). Researchers engaging in this practice complete an experiment (possibly with infinite re-experimentation) before pre-registering and write an introduction that conforms to their previously obtained results. Because such researchers apparently get attractive results and misrepresent those results as having been obtained under pre-registration, the research can readily acquire false credibility and impact. Rigorous initial peer-reviews that require revision of protocols may be able to reduce PARKing to some extent, but it is not effective if the malicious researchers involved engage in overissuing or target journals with poor peer-review practices. Furthermore, even if all unprocessed data are shared in a repository, the time stamps of uploaded data files can easily be forged or tampered with in various ways, such as by changing the system date for the operating system that is handling the data file. Therefore, there is currently no method for journals or reviewers to detect PARKing. Because many research resources would be required to implement the unethical methods described above, given the discarding of data that do not fit researchers’ hypotheses, such methods can most easily be implemented by laboratories with abundant funds. If the aforementioned QRPs become rampant, their use could not only avoid decreases in false positives (which is a substantial advantage of pre-registration) but also accelerate the Matthew effect of rich people becoming richer (Merton, 1968).
It is easier to fabricate data and falsify results than to engage in cracking pre-registration; therefore, why should researchers attempt to crack pre-registration at all? The answer depends on the associated risk. Because data fabrication is a clear case of research misconduct and is subject to punishment, the risk associated with revelation is large. On the other hand, many of the cracking methods introduced here can be performed by simply extending general research practices. For example, suppose that a researcher conducted a paper-based questionnaire survey in the typical manner (without pre-registration) and had obtained significant results that supported his/her hypothesis and written a manuscript about this research. In this case, barriers to PARKing by using the introduction and method sections of the manuscript and subsequently publishing the full article appear to be low. Excel files for data aggregation can be recreated after pre-registration. If such cracking techniques have benefits that outweigh the difficulties and can be used with little risk, researchers who engage in these techniques will readily emerge.
Global land change from 1982 to 2016: Contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally, tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level
Global land change from 1982 to 2016. Xiao-Peng Song, Matthew C. Hansen, Stephen V. Stehman, Peter V. Potapov, Alexandra Tyukavina, Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend. Nature, volume 560, pages639–643 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0411-9
Abstract: Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change 1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth’s energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and—in turn—affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services 1,2,3,4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally 5—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (−3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system. The dataset we developed may be used to improve the modelling of land-use changes, biogeochemical cycles and vegetation–climate interactions to advance our understanding of global environmental change 1,2,3,4,6.
Abstract: Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change 1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth’s energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and—in turn—affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services 1,2,3,4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally 5—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (−3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system. The dataset we developed may be used to improve the modelling of land-use changes, biogeochemical cycles and vegetation–climate interactions to advance our understanding of global environmental change 1,2,3,4,6.
Brainteaser interview questions such as “Estimate how many windows are in New York”: aggressive, abusive behaviour that lacks evidence for validity & is unsettling to job applicants; behind this behaviour are narcissism & sadism; these dark traits shared a callousness general factor
Dark Motives and Elective Use of Brainteaser Interview Questions. Scott Highhouse, Christopher D. Nye, Don C. Zhang. Applied Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1111/apps.12163
Abstract: Brainteaser interview questions such as “Estimate how many windows are in New York” are just one example of aggressive interviewer behaviour that lacks evidence for validity and is unsettling to job applicants. This research attempts to shed light on the motives behind such behaviour by examining the relation between dark‐side traits and the perceived appropriateness of brainteaser interview questions. A representative sample of working adults (n = 736) was presented with a list of interview questions that were either traditional (e.g., “Are you a good listener?”), behavioural (e.g., “Tell me about a time when you failed”), or brainteaser in nature. Results of a multiple regression, controlling for interviewing experience and sex, showed that narcissism and sadism explained the likelihood of using brainteasers in an interview. A subsequent bifactor analysis showed that these dark traits shared a callousness general factor. A second longitudinal study of employed adults with hiring experience demonstrated that perspective‐taking partially mediated the relationship between this general factor and the perceived helpfulness and abusiveness of brainteaser interview questions. These results suggest that a callous indifference and a lack of perspective‐taking may underlie abusive behaviour in the employment interview.
Abstract: Brainteaser interview questions such as “Estimate how many windows are in New York” are just one example of aggressive interviewer behaviour that lacks evidence for validity and is unsettling to job applicants. This research attempts to shed light on the motives behind such behaviour by examining the relation between dark‐side traits and the perceived appropriateness of brainteaser interview questions. A representative sample of working adults (n = 736) was presented with a list of interview questions that were either traditional (e.g., “Are you a good listener?”), behavioural (e.g., “Tell me about a time when you failed”), or brainteaser in nature. Results of a multiple regression, controlling for interviewing experience and sex, showed that narcissism and sadism explained the likelihood of using brainteasers in an interview. A subsequent bifactor analysis showed that these dark traits shared a callousness general factor. A second longitudinal study of employed adults with hiring experience demonstrated that perspective‐taking partially mediated the relationship between this general factor and the perceived helpfulness and abusiveness of brainteaser interview questions. These results suggest that a callous indifference and a lack of perspective‐taking may underlie abusive behaviour in the employment interview.
Gender Differences in Egalitarian Behavior and Attitudes in Early Childhood: Girls exhibited more egalitarian behavior than boys
Gender Differences in Egalitarian Behavior and Attitudes in Early Childhood. Joyce F. Benenson et al. Developmental Science, https://doi.org/10.1111/desc.12750
Abstract: It is axiomatic that human females are more egalitarian than males. However, surprisingly little empirical research exists that empirically assesses this stereotype. We created two studies designed to objectively examine egalitarian behavior in three‐ to five‐year‐old children. In Study 1 we compared the egalitarian behavior and attitudes of American girls versus boys by tabulating the extent to which each gender awarded the same number of stickers to and liked to the same degree two puppets. One puppet followed the child's instructions or actions while the other did not during a drawing task in which the child played the roles of leader and peer. In the peer role, girls exhibited more egalitarian behavior than boys. In Study 2, French‐Canadian children were shown two drawings by unknown peers‐ one messily and one neatly colored, then asked to distribute stickers to each peer's drawing. Again, girls exhibited more egalitarian behavior than boys. Results suggest the origins of gender differences in egalitarian behavior occur early in life and merit further investigation.
Abstract: It is axiomatic that human females are more egalitarian than males. However, surprisingly little empirical research exists that empirically assesses this stereotype. We created two studies designed to objectively examine egalitarian behavior in three‐ to five‐year‐old children. In Study 1 we compared the egalitarian behavior and attitudes of American girls versus boys by tabulating the extent to which each gender awarded the same number of stickers to and liked to the same degree two puppets. One puppet followed the child's instructions or actions while the other did not during a drawing task in which the child played the roles of leader and peer. In the peer role, girls exhibited more egalitarian behavior than boys. In Study 2, French‐Canadian children were shown two drawings by unknown peers‐ one messily and one neatly colored, then asked to distribute stickers to each peer's drawing. Again, girls exhibited more egalitarian behavior than boys. Results suggest the origins of gender differences in egalitarian behavior occur early in life and merit further investigation.
In childhood, amazingly, only recurrent animal cruelty & stabbing animals are predictive variables of later interpersonal violence, not drowning, hitting/beating, hitting with rocks, shooting, kicking, choking, burning, having sex, & starving/neglecting
The predictive ability of childhood animal cruelty methods for later interpersonal crimes. Christopher Hensley, Joseph B. Ketron. Behavioral Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2369
Abstract: Research on the topic of childhood animal cruelty methods and their link to interpersonal violence is sparse. Most of the studies that do exist focus only on the frequencies of different methods of childhood animal cruelty. Only two studies to date have examined the predictive nature of these methods for later violence toward humans. One of these previous studies found that drowning and having sex with animals were predictive of later human violence, while the other found that sex with animals and the age at which the offenders began committing animal cruelty were its only statistically significant predictors. Using data collected from 257 anonymous self‐reports by male inmates at a medium‐security prison in a Southern state, we investigate the predictive ability of several retrospectively identified childhood animal cruelty methods (i.e., drowning, hitting/beating, hitting with rocks, shooting, kicking, choking, burning, stabbing, having sex, and starving/neglecting) for later violent crimes toward humans. Regression analyses revealed that recurrent (i.e., more than once) childhood animal cruelty and stabbing animals were the only statistically significant variables in the model that predicted recurrent interpersonal violence in adulthood.
Abstract: Research on the topic of childhood animal cruelty methods and their link to interpersonal violence is sparse. Most of the studies that do exist focus only on the frequencies of different methods of childhood animal cruelty. Only two studies to date have examined the predictive nature of these methods for later violence toward humans. One of these previous studies found that drowning and having sex with animals were predictive of later human violence, while the other found that sex with animals and the age at which the offenders began committing animal cruelty were its only statistically significant predictors. Using data collected from 257 anonymous self‐reports by male inmates at a medium‐security prison in a Southern state, we investigate the predictive ability of several retrospectively identified childhood animal cruelty methods (i.e., drowning, hitting/beating, hitting with rocks, shooting, kicking, choking, burning, stabbing, having sex, and starving/neglecting) for later violent crimes toward humans. Regression analyses revealed that recurrent (i.e., more than once) childhood animal cruelty and stabbing animals were the only statistically significant variables in the model that predicted recurrent interpersonal violence in adulthood.
Heightening partisan ambivalence reduces affective polarization for ideological moderates, but increases such discord for those with more extreme ideological identities; efforts to depolarize the electorate can make it more deeply divided
When Efforts to Depolarize the Electorate Fail. Matthew S Levendusky. Public Opinion Quarterly, nfy036, https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfy036
Abstract: The mass public has become affectively polarized—ordinary Americans increasingly dislike and distrust those from the other party, with negative consequences for politics. Drawing on work in political and social psychology, this paper tests two mechanisms for reducing this discord, both of which have been shown to reduce similar biases in other settings: heightening partisan ambivalence, and using self-affirmation techniques. A population-based survey experiment shows that neither strategy reduces affective polarization in the aggregate. But this null finding masks an important heterogeneity: Heightening partisan ambivalence reduces affective polarization for ideological moderates, but increases such discord for those with more extreme ideological identities. Efforts to depolarize the electorate can make it more deeply divided, with important implications for our understanding of contemporary politics and the durability of affective polarization.
Abstract: The mass public has become affectively polarized—ordinary Americans increasingly dislike and distrust those from the other party, with negative consequences for politics. Drawing on work in political and social psychology, this paper tests two mechanisms for reducing this discord, both of which have been shown to reduce similar biases in other settings: heightening partisan ambivalence, and using self-affirmation techniques. A population-based survey experiment shows that neither strategy reduces affective polarization in the aggregate. But this null finding masks an important heterogeneity: Heightening partisan ambivalence reduces affective polarization for ideological moderates, but increases such discord for those with more extreme ideological identities. Efforts to depolarize the electorate can make it more deeply divided, with important implications for our understanding of contemporary politics and the durability of affective polarization.
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Dreams of teeth falling out: an empirical investigation of physiological and psychological correlates
Dreams of teeth falling out: an empirical investigation of physiological and psychological correlates. Naama Rozen & Nirit Soffer-Dudek. Front. Psychol., doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01812
Abstract: Teeth dreams (TD), i.e., dreams of teeth falling out or rotting, are one of the most common and universal typical dream themes, yet their source remains unknown and they have rarely been studied empirically. They are especially enigmatic as they do not readily fall under the rubric of the “continuity hypothesis”, i.e., dreams of current and salient waking-life experiences. The aim of the present study was to explore two possible hypotheses for the origin of TD; specifically, TD as incorporation of dental irritation into dreaming, and TD as a symbolic manifestation of psychological distress. Dream themes, dental irritation, psychological distress, and sleep quality were assessed among 210 undergraduates. TD were related to dental irritation (specifically, tension sensations in the teeth, gums, or jaws upon awakening), whereas other dream types were not. Conversely, TD were unrelated to psychological distress, whereas other dream types were (specifically, dreams of being smothered and dreams of falling). This disparity in the correlates of TD existed despite a small but significant relationship between psychological distress and dental irritation. Albeit preliminary, the present findings support the dental irritation hypothesis and do not support the symbolic hypothesis regarding the origins of TD. Research on TD portrays one path through which the mind may distort somatosensory stimuli and incorporate them into dreams as a vivid and emotionally-salient image; these preliminary findings highlight the potential of studying TD in order to broaden our understanding of the cognitive mechanisms governing dream production.
Keywords: Typical dreams, Sleep Bruxism, Teeth grinding, Continuity Hypothesis, Psychopathology
Abstract: Teeth dreams (TD), i.e., dreams of teeth falling out or rotting, are one of the most common and universal typical dream themes, yet their source remains unknown and they have rarely been studied empirically. They are especially enigmatic as they do not readily fall under the rubric of the “continuity hypothesis”, i.e., dreams of current and salient waking-life experiences. The aim of the present study was to explore two possible hypotheses for the origin of TD; specifically, TD as incorporation of dental irritation into dreaming, and TD as a symbolic manifestation of psychological distress. Dream themes, dental irritation, psychological distress, and sleep quality were assessed among 210 undergraduates. TD were related to dental irritation (specifically, tension sensations in the teeth, gums, or jaws upon awakening), whereas other dream types were not. Conversely, TD were unrelated to psychological distress, whereas other dream types were (specifically, dreams of being smothered and dreams of falling). This disparity in the correlates of TD existed despite a small but significant relationship between psychological distress and dental irritation. Albeit preliminary, the present findings support the dental irritation hypothesis and do not support the symbolic hypothesis regarding the origins of TD. Research on TD portrays one path through which the mind may distort somatosensory stimuli and incorporate them into dreams as a vivid and emotionally-salient image; these preliminary findings highlight the potential of studying TD in order to broaden our understanding of the cognitive mechanisms governing dream production.
Keywords: Typical dreams, Sleep Bruxism, Teeth grinding, Continuity Hypothesis, Psychopathology
In impression management situations (e.g., job interview or date), people communicate their effort less than audiences would prefer; thus, success alone may not be enough to make a positive impression on others; emphasizing effort as the cause for success also matters
Impression (Mis) Management When Communicating Success. Janina Steinmetz. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1080/01973533.2018.1500289
Abstract: People routinely engage in impression management, for example, by highlighting successes. It is not yet known how people attribute their success (to talent vs. effort) to give a positive impression. Three experiments explore this question and test whether people’s attributions of success receive favor from their audience. The findings show that, in impression management situations (e.g., job interview or date), people communicate their effort less than audiences would prefer. Thus, success alone may not be enough to make a positive impression on others; emphasizing effort as the cause for success also matters.
Abstract: People routinely engage in impression management, for example, by highlighting successes. It is not yet known how people attribute their success (to talent vs. effort) to give a positive impression. Three experiments explore this question and test whether people’s attributions of success receive favor from their audience. The findings show that, in impression management situations (e.g., job interview or date), people communicate their effort less than audiences would prefer. Thus, success alone may not be enough to make a positive impression on others; emphasizing effort as the cause for success also matters.
One reason why people avoid using social media to express their opinions is to avert social sanctions as proposed by the spiral of silence theory; rejection sensitive individuals are less likely to share political information in social media
A social safety net? Rejection sensitivity and political opinion sharing among young people in social media. Emma A Bäck et al. New Media & Society, https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444818795487
Abstract: One reason why people avoid using social media to express their opinions is to avert social sanctions as proposed by the spiral of silence theory. We here elaborate on individual-level sensitivity to social rejection in relation to voicing political opinions on social media sites. Given the uncertainty about sharing political views in social media, and the fact that social acceptance, or rejection, can be easily communicated through, for instance, likes, or a lack of likes, we argue that rejection sensitive individuals are less likely to share political information in social media. Combining an analysis of unique survey data on psychological characteristics and online political activity with focus group interviews with Swedish youth supports our argument, showing that rejection sensitive individuals are less inclined to engage politically in social media. The results extend on previous research by establishing the role of rejection sensitivity in political engagement in social media.
Keywords: Opinion sharing, rejection sensitivity, social media, spiral of silence
Abstract: One reason why people avoid using social media to express their opinions is to avert social sanctions as proposed by the spiral of silence theory. We here elaborate on individual-level sensitivity to social rejection in relation to voicing political opinions on social media sites. Given the uncertainty about sharing political views in social media, and the fact that social acceptance, or rejection, can be easily communicated through, for instance, likes, or a lack of likes, we argue that rejection sensitive individuals are less likely to share political information in social media. Combining an analysis of unique survey data on psychological characteristics and online political activity with focus group interviews with Swedish youth supports our argument, showing that rejection sensitive individuals are less inclined to engage politically in social media. The results extend on previous research by establishing the role of rejection sensitivity in political engagement in social media.
Keywords: Opinion sharing, rejection sensitivity, social media, spiral of silence
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