Lee, Harin. 2018. “Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain.” PsyArXiv. November 1. doi:10.31234/osf.io/xbwfq
Abstract: The current paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of some of the recent researches on congenital amusia, demonstrating how the behavioural, brain-imaging, and genetic studies have extended our understanding of the musical mind and brain. Moreover, it discusses the gaps in the literature that needs to be addressed in future research.
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Peretz and her colleagues (2007) investigated 9 large families of amusic probands with 71 members with matched control of 10 families with 75 members. The study showed that the disorder is a defect in pitch discrimination but not timing in music, and it is heritable. While the prevalence of the disorder was only 3% among first-degree relatives of control families, 39% was present in the amusic families. In a twin study of 136 monozygotic and 148 dizygotic twin pairs, participants were asked to discriminate the wrong note in a well-known song melody, and genetic model-fitting showed that shared genes were greater determinant than shared environment with estimate of 70 to 80% heritability (Drayna, Manichaikul, de Lange, Snieder, & Spector, 2001). Likewise, some studies argue that individuals’ musicality in general are more dependent to genetic basis compared to number of practice hours in the context of musical achievement (Peretz, 2016). Even the motivation to commit more hours of practice seems to be genetically influenced. The topic of whether musicality is innate or shaped through the environment is an on-going debate.
Nevertheless, recent studies have also demonstrated that amusia can be improved through laboratory training and raises a more interesting question (Liu, Jiang, Francart, Chan, & Wong, 2017; Whiteford & Oxenham, 2017, 2018). In a study conducted by Whiteford and Oxenham (2017), 20 amusics and matched pair of controls undertook four sessions to train in pitch-discrimination task. After the training, 11 of the amusics no longer met the criteria of MBEA and one year follow up test showed that the improvement is maintained (Whiteford & Oxenham, 2018). This is controversial to the previous findings that amusia is a life-long deficit and questions the current diagnosis of MBEA and whether the disorder is influenced by genetics.
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach
Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach. Tomoki Tokuda, Junichiro Yoshimoto, Yu Shimizu, Go Okada, Masahiro Takamura, Yasumasa Okamoto, Shigeto Yamawaki & Kenji Doya. Scientific Reports, volume 8, Article number: 14082 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-32521-z
Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.
Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.
Maternal Age and Child Development: Each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with an increase in school achievement & a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems
Maternal Age and Child Development. Greg J. Duncan, Kenneth T. H. Lee, Maria Rosales-Rueda, Ariel Kalil. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0730-3
Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.
Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement
Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.
Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement
Gay females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on gay males
Subjective Well-being and Partnership Dynamics: Are Same-Sex Relationships Different? Shuai Chen, Jan C. van Ours. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0725-0
Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.
Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.
Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Almost.
Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Carlos Hernández Blasi, Laura Mondéjar. Evolutionary Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704918808864
Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.
Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology
Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.
Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology
Hot Hand Fallacy & Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Miller, Joshua B., and Adam Sanjurjo. 2018. “A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified.” OSF Preprints. November 1. doi:10.31219/osf.io/pj79r
Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Locked-in individuals do not experience the anguish and turmoil that this horrifying situation would lead observers to expect
Phenomenology of the Locked-In Syndrome: an Overview and Some Suggestions. Fernando Vidal. Neuroethics, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12152-018-9388-1
Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.
Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)
Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html
Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.
Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)
Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html
locked-in patients are not particularly distressed by their huge behavioral limitations [...] the emotional balance is shifted toward positive emotions
Forecasting tournaments & epistemic humility: Turning polarized beliefs to nuanced probability judgments, incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, depolarizing debates
Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.021
Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.
Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.
There was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity & the three well-being measures; they discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice & divorce
Verbakel, Ellen, and Christiaan W. S. Monden. 2018. “Higher Well-being with Similar Partner? Testing the Similarity Hypothesis for Socio-demographic Characteristics.” SocArXiv. July 5. doi:10.31235/osf.io/ahwn6
Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.
Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.
Future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain—is associated with the inclination to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, & experience positive emotions
Look into the crystal ball: Can vivid images of the future enhance physical health? Simon A Moss et al. Journal of Health Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105316669582
Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.
Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking
Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.
Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking
People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information; some people do it as mementos to cue autobiographical information
People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information. Robbie J. Taylor & Maryanne Garry. Memory, https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2018.1539499
ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.
KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought
ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.
KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought
We perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource; there is a limited amount of good luck to get, and if another is lucky, he is robbing us
Marciano, Deborah, Eden Krispin, Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde, and Leon Deouell. 2018. “Limited Resources or Limited Luck? Why People Perceive an Illusory Negative Correlation Between the Outcomes of Choice Options Despite Unequivocal Evidence for Independence.” PsyArXiv. October 30. doi:10.31234/osf.io/6rkwd
Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.
Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”; that network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs
Intersubject similarity of personality is associated with intersubject similarity of brain connectivity patterns. Wei Liu, Nils Kohn, Guillén Fernández. NeuroImage, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2018.10.062
Highlights
• Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”.
• Global personality network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs.
• Intersubject network similarity analysis can identify pairs of participants with similar personality profiles.
• Global personality network can predict participants’ item-level responses in the Five-Factor Model.
Abstract: Personality is a central high-level psychological concept that defines individual human beings and has been associated with a variety of real-world outcomes (e.g., mental health and academic performance). Using 2 h, high resolution, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) resting state data of 984 (primary dataset N = 801, hold-out dataset N = 183) participants from the Human Connectome Project (HCP), we investigated the relationship between personality (five-factor model, FFM) and intrinsic whole-brain functional connectome. We found a pattern of functional brain connectivity (“global personality network”) related to personality traits. Consistent with the heritability of personality traits, the connectivity strength of this global personality network is also heritable (more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs). Validated by both the repeated family-based 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out dataset, our intersubject network similarity analysis allowed us to identify participants' pairs with similar personality profiles. Across all the identified pairs of participants, we found a positive correlation between the network similarity and personality similarity, supporting our “similar brain, similar personality” hypothesis. Furthermore, the global personality network can be used to predict the individual subject's responses in the personality questionnaire on an item level. In sum, based on individual brain connectivity pattern, we could predict different facets of personality, and this prediction is not based on localized regions, but rather relies on the individual connectivity pattern in large-scale brain networks.
Highlights
• Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”.
• Global personality network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs.
• Intersubject network similarity analysis can identify pairs of participants with similar personality profiles.
• Global personality network can predict participants’ item-level responses in the Five-Factor Model.
Abstract: Personality is a central high-level psychological concept that defines individual human beings and has been associated with a variety of real-world outcomes (e.g., mental health and academic performance). Using 2 h, high resolution, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) resting state data of 984 (primary dataset N = 801, hold-out dataset N = 183) participants from the Human Connectome Project (HCP), we investigated the relationship between personality (five-factor model, FFM) and intrinsic whole-brain functional connectome. We found a pattern of functional brain connectivity (“global personality network”) related to personality traits. Consistent with the heritability of personality traits, the connectivity strength of this global personality network is also heritable (more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs). Validated by both the repeated family-based 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out dataset, our intersubject network similarity analysis allowed us to identify participants' pairs with similar personality profiles. Across all the identified pairs of participants, we found a positive correlation between the network similarity and personality similarity, supporting our “similar brain, similar personality” hypothesis. Furthermore, the global personality network can be used to predict the individual subject's responses in the personality questionnaire on an item level. In sum, based on individual brain connectivity pattern, we could predict different facets of personality, and this prediction is not based on localized regions, but rather relies on the individual connectivity pattern in large-scale brain networks.
The Democratic State & How the Public Sector Promotes Human Happiness: Public employees are happier & exhibit greater life satisfaction; country differences in subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector
Well-Being and the Democratic State: How the Public Sector Promotes
Human Happiness. Alexander Pacek, Benjamin Radcliff, Mark Brockway.
Social Indicators Research,
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-018-2017-x
Abstract: While a growing literature within the study of subjective well-being demonstrates the impact of socio-political factors on subjective well-being, scholars have conspicuously failed to consider the role of the size and scope of government as determinants of well-being. In this study, we examine the size of the public sector as a determinant of cross-national variation in life satisfaction across the industrial democracies. At the individual-level, we find that public employees are happier and exhibit greater life satisfaction than otherwise similar others. At the aggregate level, the data strongly suggest that the subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector. The implications for the study of life satisfaction are discussed.
Keywords: Public employment Size of government Happiness Life satisfaction Welfare state Labor unions Public sector
Abstract: While a growing literature within the study of subjective well-being demonstrates the impact of socio-political factors on subjective well-being, scholars have conspicuously failed to consider the role of the size and scope of government as determinants of well-being. In this study, we examine the size of the public sector as a determinant of cross-national variation in life satisfaction across the industrial democracies. At the individual-level, we find that public employees are happier and exhibit greater life satisfaction than otherwise similar others. At the aggregate level, the data strongly suggest that the subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector. The implications for the study of life satisfaction are discussed.
Keywords: Public employment Size of government Happiness Life satisfaction Welfare state Labor unions Public sector
Men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others
Swinging high or low? Measuring self-esteem in swingers. Amanda S. Ruzansky, Marissa A. Harrison. The Social Science Journal, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.10.006
Highlights
• We quantitatively measured the self-esteem of swingers.
• Our sample consisted of 41 participants (19 men and 22 women) identifying as swingers and attending a swinging event.
• Our participants largely matched the demographics reported in other studies of swingers.
• We found that female swingers had self-esteem comparable to a general sample.
Abstract: This study sought to examine the self-esteem of individuals involved in a consensually non-monogamous relationship, the swinging lifestyle. Utilizing the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the self-esteem of swingers was quantified and compared to a general sample. The results reveal that swingers have higher self-esteem. However, gender differences emerged in post hoc analyses whereby men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others. Results are discussed in terms of evolutionary and clinical importance. Limitations and future directions are also discussed.
Highlights
• We quantitatively measured the self-esteem of swingers.
• Our sample consisted of 41 participants (19 men and 22 women) identifying as swingers and attending a swinging event.
• Our participants largely matched the demographics reported in other studies of swingers.
• We found that female swingers had self-esteem comparable to a general sample.
Abstract: This study sought to examine the self-esteem of individuals involved in a consensually non-monogamous relationship, the swinging lifestyle. Utilizing the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the self-esteem of swingers was quantified and compared to a general sample. The results reveal that swingers have higher self-esteem. However, gender differences emerged in post hoc analyses whereby men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others. Results are discussed in terms of evolutionary and clinical importance. Limitations and future directions are also discussed.
Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations & in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted
Girardi, Daniele, "Political Shocks and Financial Markets: Regression-Discontinuity Evidence from National Elections" (2018). UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers. 245. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/245
Abstract: Despite growing interest in the effect of political-institutional factors on the economy, causally identified evidence on the reaction of financial markets to electoral outcomes is still relatively scarce, due to the difficulty of isolating causal effects. This paper fills this gap: we estimate the ‘local average treatment effect’ of left-wing (as opposed to conservative) electoral victories on share prices, exchange rates, and sovereign bond yields and spreads. Using a new dataset of worldwide national (parliamentary and presidential) elections in the post-WWII period, we obtain a sample of 954 elections in which main parties/candidates can be classified on the left-right scale based on existing sources and monthly financial data are available. To achieve causal identification, we employ a dynamic regression-discontinuity design, thus focusing on close elections. We find that left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations and in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted. Effects at longer time horizons (6 to 12 months) are very dispersed, signaling large heterogeneity in medium-run outcomes. Stock market and exchange rate effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the Left’s proposed economic policy is more radical, in developing economies, and in the post-1990 period.
Abstract: Despite growing interest in the effect of political-institutional factors on the economy, causally identified evidence on the reaction of financial markets to electoral outcomes is still relatively scarce, due to the difficulty of isolating causal effects. This paper fills this gap: we estimate the ‘local average treatment effect’ of left-wing (as opposed to conservative) electoral victories on share prices, exchange rates, and sovereign bond yields and spreads. Using a new dataset of worldwide national (parliamentary and presidential) elections in the post-WWII period, we obtain a sample of 954 elections in which main parties/candidates can be classified on the left-right scale based on existing sources and monthly financial data are available. To achieve causal identification, we employ a dynamic regression-discontinuity design, thus focusing on close elections. We find that left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations and in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted. Effects at longer time horizons (6 to 12 months) are very dispersed, signaling large heterogeneity in medium-run outcomes. Stock market and exchange rate effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the Left’s proposed economic policy is more radical, in developing economies, and in the post-1990 period.
Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others
Building trust by tearing others down: When accusing others of unethical behavior engenders trust. Jessica A. Kennedy, Maurice E. Schweitzer. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 149, November 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.10.001
Highlights
• Accusing others of unethical behavior can engender greater trust in an accuser.
• Accusations can elevate trust by boosting perceptions of accusers’ integrity.
• Accusations fail to build trust when they are perceived to reflect ulterior motives.
• Morally hypocritical accusers and false accusations fail to build trust.
• Accusations harm trust in the target.
Abstract: We demonstrate that accusations harm trust in targets, but boost trust in the accuser when the accusation signals that the accuser has high integrity. Compared to individuals who did not accuse targets of engaging in unethical behavior, accusers engendered greater trust when observers perceived the accusation to be motivated by a desire to defend moral norms, rather than by a desire to advance ulterior motives. We also found that the accuser’s moral hypocrisy, the accusation's revealed veracity, and the target’s intentions when committing the unethical act moderate the trust benefits conferred to accusers. Taken together, we find that accusations have important interpersonal consequences.
Check also Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others. Jessica A. Kennedy and Maurice E. Schweitzer. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5d7b/1cc30d2337cd00dd45055da305aea2c44149.pdf
Highlights
• Accusing others of unethical behavior can engender greater trust in an accuser.
• Accusations can elevate trust by boosting perceptions of accusers’ integrity.
• Accusations fail to build trust when they are perceived to reflect ulterior motives.
• Morally hypocritical accusers and false accusations fail to build trust.
• Accusations harm trust in the target.
Abstract: We demonstrate that accusations harm trust in targets, but boost trust in the accuser when the accusation signals that the accuser has high integrity. Compared to individuals who did not accuse targets of engaging in unethical behavior, accusers engendered greater trust when observers perceived the accusation to be motivated by a desire to defend moral norms, rather than by a desire to advance ulterior motives. We also found that the accuser’s moral hypocrisy, the accusation's revealed veracity, and the target’s intentions when committing the unethical act moderate the trust benefits conferred to accusers. Taken together, we find that accusations have important interpersonal consequences.
Check also Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others. Jessica A. Kennedy and Maurice E. Schweitzer. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5d7b/1cc30d2337cd00dd45055da305aea2c44149.pdf
Abstract: Individuals who accuse others of unethical behavior can derive significant benefits. Compared to individuals who do not make accusations, accusers engender greater trust and are perceived to have higher ethical standards. In Study 1, accusations increased trust in the accuser and lowered trust in the target. In Study 2, we find that accusations elevate trust in the accuser by boosting perceptions of the accuser’s ethical standards. In Study 3, we find that accusations boosted both attitudinal and behavioral trust in the accuser, decreased trust in the target, and promoted relationship conflict within the group. In Study 4, we examine the moderating role of moral hypocrisy. Compared to individuals who did not make an accusation, individuals who made an accusation were trusted more if they had acted ethically but not if they had acted unethically. Taken together, we find that accusations have significant interpersonal consequences. In addition to harming accused targets, accusations can substantially benefit accusers.
Keywords: Ethics; Ethical Violations; Accusations
Adoption as A Strategy to Fulfill Sex Preferences of U.S. Parents: Children were more likely to be of the missing sex (i.e., girls were more likely than were boys to have only preceding brothers)
Adoption: A Strategy to Fulfill Sex Preferences of U.S. Parents. Ashley Larsen Gibby, Kevin J. A. Thomas. Journal of Marriage and Family,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12541
Abstract
Objective: This article examines adoption as a strategy used by parents in the United States to fulfill their preference for a specific sex composition among their children.
Background: Evidence from the United States suggests that parents with children of the same sex are more likely to continue childbearing, as parents generally desire at least one girl and one boy. What is unknown, however, is whether parents use adoption to fulfill this same preference.
Method: Using data from the 2016 American Community Survey (n = 1,107,800 children), the authors test the relationships among the sex composition of preceding siblings, child sex, and adoption status.
Results: Children who had same‐sex preceding siblings were more likely to be adopted, as opposed to biologically related to their parents, than children who had mixed‐sex preceding siblings. Furthermore, adopted children were more likely to be of the missing sex (i.e., adopted girls were more likely than were adopted boys to have only preceding brothers).
Conclusion: These findings suggest a need to consider parental sex preferences and child sex in studies on adoption decisions. Furthermore, the results point to adoption as an additional mechanism parents can use to achieve a balanced sex composition among their children.
https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12541
Abstract
Objective: This article examines adoption as a strategy used by parents in the United States to fulfill their preference for a specific sex composition among their children.
Background: Evidence from the United States suggests that parents with children of the same sex are more likely to continue childbearing, as parents generally desire at least one girl and one boy. What is unknown, however, is whether parents use adoption to fulfill this same preference.
Method: Using data from the 2016 American Community Survey (n = 1,107,800 children), the authors test the relationships among the sex composition of preceding siblings, child sex, and adoption status.
Results: Children who had same‐sex preceding siblings were more likely to be adopted, as opposed to biologically related to their parents, than children who had mixed‐sex preceding siblings. Furthermore, adopted children were more likely to be of the missing sex (i.e., adopted girls were more likely than were adopted boys to have only preceding brothers).
Conclusion: These findings suggest a need to consider parental sex preferences and child sex in studies on adoption decisions. Furthermore, the results point to adoption as an additional mechanism parents can use to achieve a balanced sex composition among their children.
Monday, October 29, 2018
How The High Priests Of Science Lost Their Status & Prestige
How The High Priests Of Science Lost Their Status & Prestige
John Horgan, The Wall Street Journal, October 19 2018
Stephen Hawking and Martin Rees recognize science’s declining status. But both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
A high point of my career as a science journalist was a cosmology workshop I bulled my way into in 1990. Thirty luminaries of physics gathered in a rustic resort in northern Sweden to swap ideas about how our universe was born. Stephen Hawking, although almost entirely paralyzed, was the id of the meeting, a joker with a Mick Jagger smirk. Martin Rees, cool and elegant, was the superego, as was befitting for a future president of the Royal Society, one of science’s most venerable institutions.
Personalities aside, Hawking and Mr. Rees had much in common. Born in 1942, both became professors at the University of Cambridge, where Newton once taught. Both contributed to our modern understanding of the big bang, black holes, galaxies and other cosmic matters. Both were committed to telling the public about science’s astonishing revelations.
One afternoon everyone piled into a bus and drove to a local church to hear a concert. As the scientists proceeded down the center aisle of the packed church, led by Hawking in his wheelchair, parishioners stood and applauded. These churchgoers seemed to be acknowledging that science was displacing religion as the source of answers to the deepest mysteries, like why we exist.
That scene came to mind as I read two new books, “Brief Answers to the Big Questions,” by Hawking and “On the Future: Prospects for Humanity” by Mr. Rees. The authors’ styles differ—Hawking cocky, Mr. Rees sober—but the substance of their books overlaps. They offer brisk, lucid peeks into the future of science and of humanity. They evince a profound faith in science’s power to demystify nature and bend it to our ends.
Yet reading these books was a bittersweet experience, and not only because Hawking died last March, at 76. (His book was completed by colleagues and family members.) The works resemble relics from a long-gone golden age: The high priests of science no longer enjoy the prestige they did just a few decades ago.
Hawking in this book is less brash than he once was. In 1980 he proclaimed that, by the end of the 20th century, physicists would discover an “ultimate theory” that would solve the riddle of existence. It would tell us what reality is made of, where it came from and why it takes the form that it does. In “Brief Answers” Hawking concedes that “we are not there yet,” and he pushes back his prediction for a “theory of everything” to the end of thiscentury. But he continues to promote the same ideas that he has for decades. String theory remains his favorite “theory of everything.” Also called M-theory, it conjectures that reality is made of infinitesimal strings, loops or membranes wriggling in a hyperspace of 10 dimensions.
Noting that, according to quantum mechanics, empty space seethes with particles popping into and out of existence, Hawking suggests that the entire universe began as one of these virtual particles. The universe is “the ultimate free lunch,” he says. Our universe may also be just one of many. M-theory, quantum mechanics and inflation—a theory of cosmic creation—all suggest our cosmos is just a minuscule bubble in an infinite ocean, or “multiverse.”
To explain why we live in this universe rather than one with radically different laws, Hawking invokes the “anthropic principle”: If our universe were not as we observe it to be, we would not be here to observe it. Our scientific picture of the cosmos, Hawking proposes, is already so complete that it eliminates the need for God. “No one created the universe,” he declares, “and no one directs our fate.”
Science can save us, too, Hawking states. It gives us the means to establish colonies on Mars and elsewhere in case the Earth becomes unlivable—whether because of nuclear war, runaway warming, pandemics or an asteroid collision. “If humanity is to continue for another million years,” he states, “our future lies in boldly going where no one else has gone before.”
Mr. Rees’s worldview differs in a few respects from Hawking’s. He describes himself as a “practising but unbelieving Christian.” He respects believers, with whom he shares “a sense of wonder and mystery.” As for space-colonization, Mr. Rees asserts that it is “a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems.” He dwells more than Hawking on threats posed by climate change, nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, asteroid collisions and even economic inequality. He urges redistribution of the “enormous wealth” generated by the “digital revolution.”
Yet the Cambridge colleagues agree on major issues. That machines will inevitably become super-intelligent, capable of learning without human guidance and pursuing their own goals. That we can nonetheless harness these machines for our own ends, or even merge with them. That we need more science and technology to help us overcome challenges to our peace and prosperity. That science will eventually explain the origin of this universe and even confirm the existence of other universes.
“It’s highly speculative,” Mr. Rees says of multiverse theory. “But it’s exciting science. And it may be true.” Mr. Rees also shares Hawking’s vision of “post-human” cyborgs fanning out through the universe to colonize other star systems. Our bionic descendants might be smart enough to invent warp-drive spaceships and time machines, Mr. Rees suggests. They might even solve what many scientists and philosophers consider the greatest mystery of all, the mind-body problem. This puzzle asks, as Mr. Rees puts it, “how atoms can assemble into ‘grey matter’ that can become aware of itself and ponder its origins.”
Hawking and Mr. Rees recognize science’s declining status. They call for better science education to lure more young people into science and to counter public ignorance about vaccines, genetically modified foods, climate change, nuclear power, and evolution. “The low esteem in which science and scientists are held is having serious consequences,” Hawking complains.
Both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. In 2005 statistician John Ioannidis presented evidence that “most published research findings are wrong.” That is, the findings cannot be replicated by follow-up research. Many other scholars have now confirmed the work of Mr. Ioannidis. The so-called replication crisis is especially severe in fields with high financial stakes, such as oncology and psychopharmacology.
But physics, which should serve as the bedrock of science, is in some respects the most troubled field of all. Over the last few decades, physics in the grand mode practiced by Hawking and Mr. Rees has become increasingly disconnected from empirical evidence. Proponents of string and multiverse models tout their mathematical elegance, but strings are too small and multiverses too distant to be detected by any conceivable experiment.
In her new book “Lost in Math,” German physicist Sabine Hossenfelder offers a far more candid and compelling assessment of modern physics than her English elders. She fears that physicists working on strings and multiverses are not really practicing physics. “I’m not sure anymore that what we do here, in the foundations of physics, is science,” she confesses.
As I finished “Brief Answers to the Big Questions” and “On the Future,” a few questions of my own came to mind. Will science regain its luster? Will it earn back the public’s trust, or will its authority be permanently diminished? And what outcome should we prefer? I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
John Horgan, The Wall Street Journal, October 19 2018
Stephen Hawking and Martin Rees recognize science’s declining status. But both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
A high point of my career as a science journalist was a cosmology workshop I bulled my way into in 1990. Thirty luminaries of physics gathered in a rustic resort in northern Sweden to swap ideas about how our universe was born. Stephen Hawking, although almost entirely paralyzed, was the id of the meeting, a joker with a Mick Jagger smirk. Martin Rees, cool and elegant, was the superego, as was befitting for a future president of the Royal Society, one of science’s most venerable institutions.
Personalities aside, Hawking and Mr. Rees had much in common. Born in 1942, both became professors at the University of Cambridge, where Newton once taught. Both contributed to our modern understanding of the big bang, black holes, galaxies and other cosmic matters. Both were committed to telling the public about science’s astonishing revelations.
One afternoon everyone piled into a bus and drove to a local church to hear a concert. As the scientists proceeded down the center aisle of the packed church, led by Hawking in his wheelchair, parishioners stood and applauded. These churchgoers seemed to be acknowledging that science was displacing religion as the source of answers to the deepest mysteries, like why we exist.
That scene came to mind as I read two new books, “Brief Answers to the Big Questions,” by Hawking and “On the Future: Prospects for Humanity” by Mr. Rees. The authors’ styles differ—Hawking cocky, Mr. Rees sober—but the substance of their books overlaps. They offer brisk, lucid peeks into the future of science and of humanity. They evince a profound faith in science’s power to demystify nature and bend it to our ends.
Yet reading these books was a bittersweet experience, and not only because Hawking died last March, at 76. (His book was completed by colleagues and family members.) The works resemble relics from a long-gone golden age: The high priests of science no longer enjoy the prestige they did just a few decades ago.
Hawking in this book is less brash than he once was. In 1980 he proclaimed that, by the end of the 20th century, physicists would discover an “ultimate theory” that would solve the riddle of existence. It would tell us what reality is made of, where it came from and why it takes the form that it does. In “Brief Answers” Hawking concedes that “we are not there yet,” and he pushes back his prediction for a “theory of everything” to the end of thiscentury. But he continues to promote the same ideas that he has for decades. String theory remains his favorite “theory of everything.” Also called M-theory, it conjectures that reality is made of infinitesimal strings, loops or membranes wriggling in a hyperspace of 10 dimensions.
Noting that, according to quantum mechanics, empty space seethes with particles popping into and out of existence, Hawking suggests that the entire universe began as one of these virtual particles. The universe is “the ultimate free lunch,” he says. Our universe may also be just one of many. M-theory, quantum mechanics and inflation—a theory of cosmic creation—all suggest our cosmos is just a minuscule bubble in an infinite ocean, or “multiverse.”
To explain why we live in this universe rather than one with radically different laws, Hawking invokes the “anthropic principle”: If our universe were not as we observe it to be, we would not be here to observe it. Our scientific picture of the cosmos, Hawking proposes, is already so complete that it eliminates the need for God. “No one created the universe,” he declares, “and no one directs our fate.”
Science can save us, too, Hawking states. It gives us the means to establish colonies on Mars and elsewhere in case the Earth becomes unlivable—whether because of nuclear war, runaway warming, pandemics or an asteroid collision. “If humanity is to continue for another million years,” he states, “our future lies in boldly going where no one else has gone before.”
Mr. Rees’s worldview differs in a few respects from Hawking’s. He describes himself as a “practising but unbelieving Christian.” He respects believers, with whom he shares “a sense of wonder and mystery.” As for space-colonization, Mr. Rees asserts that it is “a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems.” He dwells more than Hawking on threats posed by climate change, nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, asteroid collisions and even economic inequality. He urges redistribution of the “enormous wealth” generated by the “digital revolution.”
Yet the Cambridge colleagues agree on major issues. That machines will inevitably become super-intelligent, capable of learning without human guidance and pursuing their own goals. That we can nonetheless harness these machines for our own ends, or even merge with them. That we need more science and technology to help us overcome challenges to our peace and prosperity. That science will eventually explain the origin of this universe and even confirm the existence of other universes.
“It’s highly speculative,” Mr. Rees says of multiverse theory. “But it’s exciting science. And it may be true.” Mr. Rees also shares Hawking’s vision of “post-human” cyborgs fanning out through the universe to colonize other star systems. Our bionic descendants might be smart enough to invent warp-drive spaceships and time machines, Mr. Rees suggests. They might even solve what many scientists and philosophers consider the greatest mystery of all, the mind-body problem. This puzzle asks, as Mr. Rees puts it, “how atoms can assemble into ‘grey matter’ that can become aware of itself and ponder its origins.”
Hawking and Mr. Rees recognize science’s declining status. They call for better science education to lure more young people into science and to counter public ignorance about vaccines, genetically modified foods, climate change, nuclear power, and evolution. “The low esteem in which science and scientists are held is having serious consequences,” Hawking complains.
Both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. In 2005 statistician John Ioannidis presented evidence that “most published research findings are wrong.” That is, the findings cannot be replicated by follow-up research. Many other scholars have now confirmed the work of Mr. Ioannidis. The so-called replication crisis is especially severe in fields with high financial stakes, such as oncology and psychopharmacology.
But physics, which should serve as the bedrock of science, is in some respects the most troubled field of all. Over the last few decades, physics in the grand mode practiced by Hawking and Mr. Rees has become increasingly disconnected from empirical evidence. Proponents of string and multiverse models tout their mathematical elegance, but strings are too small and multiverses too distant to be detected by any conceivable experiment.
In her new book “Lost in Math,” German physicist Sabine Hossenfelder offers a far more candid and compelling assessment of modern physics than her English elders. She fears that physicists working on strings and multiverses are not really practicing physics. “I’m not sure anymore that what we do here, in the foundations of physics, is science,” she confesses.
As I finished “Brief Answers to the Big Questions” and “On the Future,” a few questions of my own came to mind. Will science regain its luster? Will it earn back the public’s trust, or will its authority be permanently diminished? And what outcome should we prefer? I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
Pornography consumption was associated with an impersonal approach to sex among both men and women; among both adolescents and adults; and across countries, time, and methods
Pornography and Impersonal Sex. Robert S Tokunaga, Paul J Wright, Joseph E Roskos. Human Communication Research, hqy014, https://doi.org/10.1093/hcr/hqy014
Abstract: This paper presents meta-analytic findings on pornography consumption and impersonal sexual attitudes and behaviors. Results were based on more than 70 reports spanning over 40 years of research. Data from 13 countries were located, with attitudinal results from more than 45,000 participants and behavioral results from over 60,000 participants. Pornography consumption was associated with an impersonal approach to sex among both men and women; among both adolescents and adults; and across countries, time, and methods. Mediation results were consistent with the sexual script theory hypothesis that viewing pornography leads to more impersonal sexual attitudes, which in turn increase the likelihood of engaging in impersonal sexual behavior. Confounding analysis did not support the libertarian theory of pornography's hypothesis that the only reason why pornography consumption correlates with impersonal sexual behavior is because people who are already impersonal in their approach to sex are more likely to consume pornography and engage in impersonal sexual acts.
Abstract: This paper presents meta-analytic findings on pornography consumption and impersonal sexual attitudes and behaviors. Results were based on more than 70 reports spanning over 40 years of research. Data from 13 countries were located, with attitudinal results from more than 45,000 participants and behavioral results from over 60,000 participants. Pornography consumption was associated with an impersonal approach to sex among both men and women; among both adolescents and adults; and across countries, time, and methods. Mediation results were consistent with the sexual script theory hypothesis that viewing pornography leads to more impersonal sexual attitudes, which in turn increase the likelihood of engaging in impersonal sexual behavior. Confounding analysis did not support the libertarian theory of pornography's hypothesis that the only reason why pornography consumption correlates with impersonal sexual behavior is because people who are already impersonal in their approach to sex are more likely to consume pornography and engage in impersonal sexual acts.
30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands: No atoll lost land area, 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted; atolls affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior
A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades. Virginie K. E. Duvat. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.557
Abstract: Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size. This threshold could be used to define the minimum island size required for human occupancy and to assess atoll countries and territories' vulnerability to climate change. Beyond emphasizing the major role of climate drivers in causing substantial changes in the configuration of islands, this reanalysis of available data indicates that these drivers explain subregional variations in atoll behavior and within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline (lagoon vs. ocean) behavior, following atoll‐specific patterns. Increasing human disturbances, especially land reclamation and human structure construction, operated on atoll‐to‐shoreline spatial scales, explaining marked within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline behavior. Collectively, these findings highlight the heterogeneity of atoll situations. Further research needs include addressing geographical gaps (Indian Ocean, Caribbean, north‐western Pacific atolls), using standardized protocols to allow comparative analyses of island and shoreline behavior across ocean regions, investigating the role of ecological drivers, and promoting interdisciplinary approaches. Such efforts would assist in anticipating potential future changes in the contributions and interactions of key drivers.
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change; Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior
Abstract: Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size. This threshold could be used to define the minimum island size required for human occupancy and to assess atoll countries and territories' vulnerability to climate change. Beyond emphasizing the major role of climate drivers in causing substantial changes in the configuration of islands, this reanalysis of available data indicates that these drivers explain subregional variations in atoll behavior and within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline (lagoon vs. ocean) behavior, following atoll‐specific patterns. Increasing human disturbances, especially land reclamation and human structure construction, operated on atoll‐to‐shoreline spatial scales, explaining marked within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline behavior. Collectively, these findings highlight the heterogeneity of atoll situations. Further research needs include addressing geographical gaps (Indian Ocean, Caribbean, north‐western Pacific atolls), using standardized protocols to allow comparative analyses of island and shoreline behavior across ocean regions, investigating the role of ecological drivers, and promoting interdisciplinary approaches. Such efforts would assist in anticipating potential future changes in the contributions and interactions of key drivers.
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change; Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior
This evidence supports my claim that the threat of conventional retaliation is sufficient to deter a preventive strike against emerging nuclear state
Closing the Window of Vulnerability: Nuclear Proliferation and Conventional Retaliation. Jan Ludvik. Security Studies, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2018.1508635
Abstract: Living with a nuclear-armed enemy is unattractive, but, strangely, states seldom use their military power to prevent the enemy’s entry into the nuclear club. It is puzzling why preventive strikes against nuclear programs have been quite rare. I address this puzzle by considering the role of conventional retaliation, a subfield of deterrence that so far has received scant attention in the literature. I theorize the concept of conventional retaliation and test its explanatory power. First, I explore all historical cases where states struck another state’s nuclear installations and find none occurring when the proliferator threatened conventional retaliation. Second, I explore two cases where a strike was most likely, but the would-be attacker balked and find smoking-gun evidence that the threat of conventional retaliation restrained the would-be attacker. This evidence supports my claim that the threat of conventional retaliation is sufficient to deter a preventive strike against emerging nuclear states.
Abstract: Living with a nuclear-armed enemy is unattractive, but, strangely, states seldom use their military power to prevent the enemy’s entry into the nuclear club. It is puzzling why preventive strikes against nuclear programs have been quite rare. I address this puzzle by considering the role of conventional retaliation, a subfield of deterrence that so far has received scant attention in the literature. I theorize the concept of conventional retaliation and test its explanatory power. First, I explore all historical cases where states struck another state’s nuclear installations and find none occurring when the proliferator threatened conventional retaliation. Second, I explore two cases where a strike was most likely, but the would-be attacker balked and find smoking-gun evidence that the threat of conventional retaliation restrained the would-be attacker. This evidence supports my claim that the threat of conventional retaliation is sufficient to deter a preventive strike against emerging nuclear states.
From 2013, Secret Codes of Political Propaganda: The Unknown System of Writing Teams
From 2013, Secret Codes of Political Propaganda: The Unknown System of Writing Teams. Wen-Hsuan Tsai and Peng-Hsiang Kao. The China Quarterly, Volume 214, June 2013, pp. 394-410, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741013000362
Abstract: Within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), some Party units have established a largely unknown network of writing teams which propagate the policies or perspectives of a particular unit by publishing feature articles in Party journals. These writing teams often make use of a pseudonym in the form of a person's name, leading outsiders to believe that the work is written by a journalist. In fact, the pseudonyms of the Party unit writing teams function as a form of secret code. Through this code, inner Party members can recognize which unit's views an article reflects. In order to reveal exactly which units the codes represent, we have collated the names of over 20 writing teams. In addition, we provide an introduction to the functioning of the writing teams and the manner in which articles are produced. Finally, we propose that the CCP's mechanism of “propaganda codes” is gradually undergoing the process of institutionalization.
Abstract: Within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), some Party units have established a largely unknown network of writing teams which propagate the policies or perspectives of a particular unit by publishing feature articles in Party journals. These writing teams often make use of a pseudonym in the form of a person's name, leading outsiders to believe that the work is written by a journalist. In fact, the pseudonyms of the Party unit writing teams function as a form of secret code. Through this code, inner Party members can recognize which unit's views an article reflects. In order to reveal exactly which units the codes represent, we have collated the names of over 20 writing teams. In addition, we provide an introduction to the functioning of the writing teams and the manner in which articles are produced. Finally, we propose that the CCP's mechanism of “propaganda codes” is gradually undergoing the process of institutionalization.
Brain Tissue–Volume Changes in Cosmonauts: Gray-matter volume decreases, cerebrospinal fluid increases
Brain Tissue–Volume Changes in Cosmonauts. Angelique Van Ombergen et al. N Engl J Med 2018; 379:1678-1680, October 25, 2018, DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc1809011
Long-duration spaceflight has detrimental effects in several physiological systems. Several studies have shown an upward shift of the cerebral hemispheres, a decrease in frontotemporal volume, and an increase in ventricle size after spaceflight.1-3 However, information is limited about the effects of microgravity on brain volume, particularly regarding changes that are evident more than 1 month after spaceflight.
We prospectively studied data from T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) that was performed in 10 male cosmonauts (mean age, 44 years; average space-mission duration, 189 days) at three time points: preflight (in 10 cosmonauts), short-term postflight (average, 9 days postflight; in 10), and long-term postflight follow-up (average, 209 days postflight; in 7). The volumes of gray matter, white matter, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were analyzed with the use of voxel-based morphometry. [...]
The gray-matter volume postflight as compared with preflight showed a widespread decrease in the orbitofrontal and temporal cortexes; the maximal decrease was 3.3% in the right middle temporal gyrus. At long-term postflight follow-up, most reductions in gray-matter volume had recovered toward preflight levels (e.g., a 1.2% reduction in gray-matter volume persisted in the right temporal gyrus). The white-matter volume postflight as compared with preflight was reduced along a longitudinal tract of the left temporal lobe, but there was a global reduction of cerebral white-matter volume at long-term follow-up as compared with postflight. The ventral CSF spaces of the cerebral hemispheres and the ventricles had increased in volume postflight as compared with preflight (maximal increase, 12.9% in the third ventricle), while CSF volume below the vertex decreased. At long-term follow-up, the CSF volume in the ventricles had returned toward preflight values, while the CSF volume in the entire subarachnoid space around the brain had increased. Changes in the volumes of gray matter and CSF are shown in Figure 1.
Long-duration spaceflight has detrimental effects in several physiological systems. Several studies have shown an upward shift of the cerebral hemispheres, a decrease in frontotemporal volume, and an increase in ventricle size after spaceflight.1-3 However, information is limited about the effects of microgravity on brain volume, particularly regarding changes that are evident more than 1 month after spaceflight.
We prospectively studied data from T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) that was performed in 10 male cosmonauts (mean age, 44 years; average space-mission duration, 189 days) at three time points: preflight (in 10 cosmonauts), short-term postflight (average, 9 days postflight; in 10), and long-term postflight follow-up (average, 209 days postflight; in 7). The volumes of gray matter, white matter, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were analyzed with the use of voxel-based morphometry. [...]
The gray-matter volume postflight as compared with preflight showed a widespread decrease in the orbitofrontal and temporal cortexes; the maximal decrease was 3.3% in the right middle temporal gyrus. At long-term postflight follow-up, most reductions in gray-matter volume had recovered toward preflight levels (e.g., a 1.2% reduction in gray-matter volume persisted in the right temporal gyrus). The white-matter volume postflight as compared with preflight was reduced along a longitudinal tract of the left temporal lobe, but there was a global reduction of cerebral white-matter volume at long-term follow-up as compared with postflight. The ventral CSF spaces of the cerebral hemispheres and the ventricles had increased in volume postflight as compared with preflight (maximal increase, 12.9% in the third ventricle), while CSF volume below the vertex decreased. At long-term follow-up, the CSF volume in the ventricles had returned toward preflight values, while the CSF volume in the entire subarachnoid space around the brain had increased. Changes in the volumes of gray matter and CSF are shown in Figure 1.
Attributes associated with sexual attractiveness in female bodies (waist-to-hip ratio) are processed rapidly in the stream of visual processing
Waist‐to‐hip ratio affects female body attractiveness and modulates early brain responses. Marzia Del Zotto, David Framorando, Alan J. Pegna. European Journal of Neuroscience, https://doi.org/10.1111/ejn.14209
Abstract: This investigation examined the electrophysiological response underlying the visual processing of waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR) in female bodies, a characteristic known to affect perceived attractiveness. WHRs of female bodies were artificially adjusted to values of 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 or 0.9. Behavioural ratings of attractiveness of the bodies revealed a preference for WHRs of 0.7 in the overall group of participants, which included both male and female heterosexual individuals. Event‐related potentials (ERPs) were then recorded while participants performed a selective attention task involving photographs of female models and scrambled images. Results showed that the P1 (80‐120 ms) and N1 (130‐170 ms) components situated over posterior brain regions were the earliest components to be modulated by attention and bodies. Interestingly, the VPP, a vertex‐positive potential occurring between 120‐180 ms, produced a greater positivity for WHRs of 0.7 compared to the other ratios. However, this increase was only observed when the body stimuli were attended, while no effect was observed for unattended bodies. These findings provide evidence of an early brain sensitivity to visual attributes that constitute secondary sexual characteristics. Although they are relatively discrete from the point of view of their physical quality, these signs possess strong behavioural significance, producing greater reported attractiveness, likely by conveying the biological meaning that signals good health and greater reproductive success. Our results therefore reveal that attributes associated with sexual attractiveness in female bodies are processed rapidly in the stream of visual processing.
Abstract: This investigation examined the electrophysiological response underlying the visual processing of waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR) in female bodies, a characteristic known to affect perceived attractiveness. WHRs of female bodies were artificially adjusted to values of 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 or 0.9. Behavioural ratings of attractiveness of the bodies revealed a preference for WHRs of 0.7 in the overall group of participants, which included both male and female heterosexual individuals. Event‐related potentials (ERPs) were then recorded while participants performed a selective attention task involving photographs of female models and scrambled images. Results showed that the P1 (80‐120 ms) and N1 (130‐170 ms) components situated over posterior brain regions were the earliest components to be modulated by attention and bodies. Interestingly, the VPP, a vertex‐positive potential occurring between 120‐180 ms, produced a greater positivity for WHRs of 0.7 compared to the other ratios. However, this increase was only observed when the body stimuli were attended, while no effect was observed for unattended bodies. These findings provide evidence of an early brain sensitivity to visual attributes that constitute secondary sexual characteristics. Although they are relatively discrete from the point of view of their physical quality, these signs possess strong behavioural significance, producing greater reported attractiveness, likely by conveying the biological meaning that signals good health and greater reproductive success. Our results therefore reveal that attributes associated with sexual attractiveness in female bodies are processed rapidly in the stream of visual processing.
Those paired with an opposite-sex partner exerciced a higher levels of intensity and traveled greater distances during their workouts; and even more if single
Going the distance, going for speed: Honest signaling and the benefits of exercising with an opposite-sex partner. Michael D. Baker et al. Evolution and Human Behavior,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2018.10.004
When people are aware that potential mates are observing their performances, they may alter their behavior (consciously or unconsciously) in order to make themselves appear more desirable to these individuals. This is consistent with previous research showing that matingrelated display strategies may be situationally sensitive, such that people will only engage in these displays when they believe that their performance will be viewed by a desirable functionally-relevant target (Baker & Maner, 2008, 2009).
In general, the current research demonstrates the utility of applying an evolutionary perspective to generate and test specific predictions regarding how human performance varies depending upon both fundamental social motives and social context. A more general social psychological theory such as social facilitation theory would generate a prediction that performance would be similarly enhanced in the presence of any partner, regardless of individual differences in relationship status or mating motives. However, our results demonstrate that performance in the presence of another individual varies depending on the sex of the individuals in the situation as well as the motives of the actor. We argue that this finding is best interpreted as being a product of human mating strategies. More specifically, the pattern of observed results is consistent with predictions generated by costly signaling theory and the fundamental social motives perspective. Improvements in performance were observed only in the presence of a potential mate and only when the actor possessed personal characteristics associated with greater levels of motivation to seek a mate. Accounting for individual differences in fundamental social motives and functionally relevant social factors can lead to the generation of novel hypotheses about how these factors interact to impact performance. Although the current research focused on exercise performance, it is reasonable to speculate that fundamental social motives and social context might interact to influence performance of a range of different behaviors in functionally relevant ways.
The findings of the current work demonstrate how social context can affect performance in a manner consistent with a sexual display strategy. By tailoring one’s behaviors to the preferences of potential mates, these behaviors can serve as advertisements of desirable qualities, allowing people to market themselves as desirable romantic or sexual prospects. In order to better understand why people behave the way that they do in any given situation, it is helpful to take into account the opportunities afforded by the social context as well as the fundamental social goals that the actor is motivated to pursue. This work demonstrates that conceptualizing public behaviors as serving a social display function can lead to an improved understanding of the impact of social context on performance.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2018.10.004
When people are aware that potential mates are observing their performances, they may alter their behavior (consciously or unconsciously) in order to make themselves appear more desirable to these individuals. This is consistent with previous research showing that matingrelated display strategies may be situationally sensitive, such that people will only engage in these displays when they believe that their performance will be viewed by a desirable functionally-relevant target (Baker & Maner, 2008, 2009).
In general, the current research demonstrates the utility of applying an evolutionary perspective to generate and test specific predictions regarding how human performance varies depending upon both fundamental social motives and social context. A more general social psychological theory such as social facilitation theory would generate a prediction that performance would be similarly enhanced in the presence of any partner, regardless of individual differences in relationship status or mating motives. However, our results demonstrate that performance in the presence of another individual varies depending on the sex of the individuals in the situation as well as the motives of the actor. We argue that this finding is best interpreted as being a product of human mating strategies. More specifically, the pattern of observed results is consistent with predictions generated by costly signaling theory and the fundamental social motives perspective. Improvements in performance were observed only in the presence of a potential mate and only when the actor possessed personal characteristics associated with greater levels of motivation to seek a mate. Accounting for individual differences in fundamental social motives and functionally relevant social factors can lead to the generation of novel hypotheses about how these factors interact to impact performance. Although the current research focused on exercise performance, it is reasonable to speculate that fundamental social motives and social context might interact to influence performance of a range of different behaviors in functionally relevant ways.
The findings of the current work demonstrate how social context can affect performance in a manner consistent with a sexual display strategy. By tailoring one’s behaviors to the preferences of potential mates, these behaviors can serve as advertisements of desirable qualities, allowing people to market themselves as desirable romantic or sexual prospects. In order to better understand why people behave the way that they do in any given situation, it is helpful to take into account the opportunities afforded by the social context as well as the fundamental social goals that the actor is motivated to pursue. This work demonstrates that conceptualizing public behaviors as serving a social display function can lead to an improved understanding of the impact of social context on performance.
Endogenous Emotion Generation Abilities Support Adaptive Emotion Regulation & More Happiness
Engen, Haakon, Philipp Kanske, and Tania Singer. 2018. “Endogenous Emotion Generation Abilities Support Adaptive Emotion Management.” PsyArXiv. October 28. doi:10.31234/osf.io/4yxkv
Abstract: Emotions are frequently thought of as reactions to events in the world. However, many of our emotional experiences are of our own making, coming from thoughts and memories. These different origins mean that these endogenous emotions are more controllable than exogenous emotions, making plausible a role of endogenous emotion in self-regulation and mental health. We tested this idea in a representative sample of 277 individuals (163 female, 20-55 years) who partook in an experiment measuring individual differences in endogenous emotion generation ability and a questionnaire battery measuring individual differences in trait affect and emotional self-regulation style. Two hypotheses for how endogenous emotion generation can facilitate mental health were tested: By buffering negative stressors with self-generated positive emotion enabling use of emotion-focused regulation techniques, or by allowing effective simulation of the emotional consequences of future events, facilitating active and instrumental coping. Support for both hypotheses was found. Consistent with buffering, positive emotion generation ability mediated the relationship between emotion-focused regulation and trait affect, while the ability to generate emotions regardless of valence, was found to mediate the relationship between active and instrumental regulation and trait affect, supporting a simulation account. This suggests role of emotion generation in emotion regulation, a finding of both theoretical and practical implication for mental health interventions.
Abstract: Emotions are frequently thought of as reactions to events in the world. However, many of our emotional experiences are of our own making, coming from thoughts and memories. These different origins mean that these endogenous emotions are more controllable than exogenous emotions, making plausible a role of endogenous emotion in self-regulation and mental health. We tested this idea in a representative sample of 277 individuals (163 female, 20-55 years) who partook in an experiment measuring individual differences in endogenous emotion generation ability and a questionnaire battery measuring individual differences in trait affect and emotional self-regulation style. Two hypotheses for how endogenous emotion generation can facilitate mental health were tested: By buffering negative stressors with self-generated positive emotion enabling use of emotion-focused regulation techniques, or by allowing effective simulation of the emotional consequences of future events, facilitating active and instrumental coping. Support for both hypotheses was found. Consistent with buffering, positive emotion generation ability mediated the relationship between emotion-focused regulation and trait affect, while the ability to generate emotions regardless of valence, was found to mediate the relationship between active and instrumental regulation and trait affect, supporting a simulation account. This suggests role of emotion generation in emotion regulation, a finding of both theoretical and practical implication for mental health interventions.
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