Multivariate analysis of 1.5 million people identifies 579 genome-wide significant loci associated with a liability toward externalizing outcomes (problems of self-regulation and addiction)

Multivariate analysis of 1.5 million people identifies genetic associations with traits related to self-regulation and addiction. Richard Karlsson Linnér et al. Nature Neuroscience, Aug 26 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00908-3

Abstract: Behaviors and disorders related to self-regulation, such as substance use, antisocial behavior and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, are collectively referred to as externalizing and have shared genetic liability. We applied a multivariate approach that leverages genetic correlations among externalizing traits for genome-wide association analyses. By pooling data from ~1.5 million people, our approach is statistically more powerful than single-trait analyses and identifies more than 500 genetic loci. The loci were enriched for genes expressed in the brain and related to nervous system development. A polygenic score constructed from our results predicts a range of behavioral and medical outcomes that were not part of genome-wide analyses, including traits that until now lacked well-performing polygenic scores, such as opioid use disorder, suicide, HIV infections, criminal convictions and unemployment. Our findings are consistent with the idea that persistent difficulties in self-regulation can be conceptualized as a neurodevelopmental trait with complex and far-reaching social and health correlates.

This chapter argues that the conventional theories and processes at the core of the discipline of political communication are rooted in assumptions that no longer hold and contexts that no longer exist

Young, Dannagal G., & Joanne Miller 2021. “Young and Miller, Political Communication in Oxford Handbook of Poli Psych 3rd Ed.” OSF Preprints. August 27. doi:10.31219/osf.io/mwdtu

Abstract: This chapter argues that the conventional theories and processes at the core of the discipline of political communication are rooted in assumptions that no longer hold and contexts that no longer exist. Today’s media users experience decentralized, interpersonal, horizontal, networked politically relevant communication every day. And they experience this socially-contextualized messaging within a system predicated on the economics and logics of micro-segmentation. We assert that these are qualitative shifts that necessitate a fundamental reconsideration and reimagining of the field of political communication. Specifically, we focus on how the shift away from traditional mass media models to networked, decentralized media systems through digital technologies has crucial implications for: a) the scope of what constitutes political communication and b) the integration of political psychology into the study of political communication.

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Echo Chambers. Another implication of the increasingly interpersonal nature of media experiences and the micro-segmentation of audiences is the potential formation of echo chambers and filter bubbles. As media choice increases, individuals can increasingly “opt in” or “out” of media experiences, facilitating selective exposure to and avoidance of ideologicallyconsonant – or even politically-relevant (Prior, 2007) – media content. In their paradigmchallenging essay, Bennett and Iyengar (2008) suggested that selectivity behaviors would be so great in this new media landscape, that media persuasion effects would all but disappear, even as other effects like agenda setting or priming might continue. “As media audiences devolve into smaller, like-minded subsets of the electorate,” they wrote, “it becomes less likely that media messages will do anything other than reinforce prior predispositions. Most media users will rarely find themselves in the path of attitude-discrepant information.” (p. 724).

Such “echo chambers” or “filter bubbles” became a growing concern among political scientists and political communication scholars from 2000 - 2010s (Sunstein, 2001), as empirical examinations pointed to a public engaging in selective exposure and avoidance of politicallydissonant mediated information in ways that could fuel political polarization (Stroud, 2011; see below). Yet, while echo chambers and filter bubbles are certainly made possible through media fragmentation, research has failed to produce substantial evidence to support the notion that most people restrict themselves to only like-minded media content (see Guess et al, 2018; Guess, 2021). Although selective exposure to like-minded content does occur, and moral-emotional content from elites spreads efficiently within their ideological social networks (especially on the 27 right) (Brady et al., 2019), evidence of selective-avoidance of belief-disconfirming information is scarce (Garrett, 2009). Barbera et al, (2015) conclude that “homophilic tendencies in online interaction do not imply that information about current events is necessarily constrained by the walls of an echo chamber” (p. 1539). Users tend to have diverse media diets and vary in the extent to which they pay attention to political or current events information (Guess, 2018), and those users who do pay attention to like-minded political content, pay more, not less attention to belief-dissonant programming (Garrett, Carnahan, & Lynch, 2011, Nelson & Webster, 2017). Even on social media, where algorithms and users themselves increase the ideological homogeneity of their newsfeeds (Bakshy, Messing, and Adamic 2015), users are still exposed to some belief-disconfirming information. In fact, in the most fragmented context of all, the internet, selective exposure and avoidance is complicated by social networks, where social media posts of friends and family can serve as heuristics that guide ideologically diverse information consumption (Masip, SuauMartinez, & Ruiz-Caballero, 2017; Messing and Westwood, 2014; Flaxman, Goel, & Rao, 2016; Zuiderveen et al., 2016), even trumping partisan selective exposure (Anspach, 2017). These results are supported by Dylko et al (2018) who find that although customized media experiences increase selective exposure dynamics in ways that increase political polarization, this effect is limited to customization processes that are automatically embedded within a technology. When users have the ability to customize media experiences, these relationships shrink, again highlighting how user agency often diversifies – rather than homogenizes – media diets. Such findings certainly call into question Bennett and Iyengar’s (2008) pronouncement of the “demise of the inadvertent audience” (p. 717). Whereas media fragmentation facilitates selective exposure and avoidance, the interpersonal networked nature of the social media experience does not. Yet attending to and being receptive to belief-disconfirming content are two different things that may be motivated by different goals. Knobloch-Westerwick and Klienman (2012), for example, find that people engage in less selective avoidance of belief-disconfirming information when they expect their side is going to lose, pointing to anticipated “informational utility” as individuals anticipate that exposure to belief-disconfirming content “can aid individuals in making future decisions” (p. 171). Valentino et al.’s (2009) work is consistent with this explanatory mechanism, with individuals seeking out belief-disconfirming content as a way of monitoring their information environments. In this work, anxiety was found to fuel information seeking behaviors, thereby increasing exposure to belief-disconfirming content, illustrating that these consumption behaviors are shaped by emotional needs of the audience. Finally, calls to relax the fears of echo chambers and filter bubbles are focused on the modal cases – the most likely outcomes for most people. This raises questions about whether we should be more concerned about the outcomes of users at the margins - culturally and politically. Boutyline and Willer (2017) for example, found that social networks (on Twitter) were most homogenous among those users with the most extreme political views. Evidence about the moderating role of political engagement is mixed; Guess (20121 finds a positive relationship between political engagement and media diet homogeneity, whereas Dubois and Blank (2018) find the reverse (see also Eady et al. 2019). Emotions such as anger may fuel the kind of dynamics that lead to concerning echo-chambers, while fear and anxiety may mitigate them (Wollebaek et al., 2019). Recent work by Stier et al. (2020) indicates that populist attitudes interact with contextual factors to fuel selective exposure patterns, with populist attitudes 29 contributing to lower (but not zero) exposure to traditional news and greater exposure to hyperpartisan outlets.

Investors who are male, or above the age of 45, or married, or have more dependents, or who self-identify as having excellent investment experience or knowledge tend to freak out with greater frequency

Elkind, Daniel and Kaminski, Kathryn and Lo, Andrew W. and Siah, Kien Wei and Wong, Chi Heem, When Do Investors Freak Out?: Machine Learning Predictions of Panic Selling (August 4, 2021). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3898940

Abstract: Despite standard investment advice to the contrary, individuals often engage in panic selling, liquidating significant portions of their risky assets in response to large losses. Using a novel dataset of 653,455 individual brokerage accounts belonging to 298,556 households, we document the frequency, timing, and duration of panic sales, which we define as a decline of 90% of a household account’s equity assets over the course of one month, of which 50% or more is due to trades. We find that a disproportionate number of households make panic sales when there are sharp market downturns, a phenomenon we call ‘freaking out’. We show that panic selling and freak outs are predictable and fundamentally different from other well-known behavioral patterns such as over trading or the disposition effect. Investors who are male, or above the age of 45, or married, or have more dependents, or who self-identify as having excellent investment experience or knowledge tend to freak out with greater frequency. We use a five-layer neural network model to predict freak out events one month in advance, given recent market conditions and an investor’s demographic attributes and financial history, which exhibited true negative and positive accuracy rates of 81.5% and 69.5%, respectively, in an out-of-sample test set. We measure the opportunity of cost of panic sales and find that, while freaking out does protect investors during a crisis, such investors often wait too long to reinvest, causing them to miss out on significant profits when markets rebound.

Keywords: Panic Selling; Stop-Loss; Tactical Asset Allocation; Freaking Out; Deep Learning; Behavioral Finance

JEL Classification: G11, G01, G02, D14, D91

Given the overwhelming whiteness of BDSM in both research and practice, we need to build inclusive BDSM communities that continue to naturalize this whiteness

Overwhelming whiteness of BDSM: A critical discourse analysis of racialization in BDSM. Katherine Martinez. Sexualities, July 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/1363460720932389

Abstract: Ahmed’s (2007) theory of the phenomenology of whiteness serves as a theoretical tool for assessing how whiteness presents itself within bondage, discipline, dominance/submission, and sadomasochism (BDSM) play. Given the “overwhelming whiteness” of BDSM in both research and practice, this study serves as a theory-building exercise for analyzing the relationship between what researchers have described as inclusive BDSM communities that continue to naturalize the whiteness of BDSM spaces. Through critical discourse analysis of interviews and blog submissions from BDSM participants, this study reflects on the whiteness of BDSM. Analyses suggest that the differences between white and racialized BDSM participants in their explanations for the whiteness of BDSM continue to support and privilege the white experience in white BDSM spaces.

Keywords: Critical discourse analysis, racialization, sadomasochism, whiteness

Consecration in American Sociology, 1980–2020: The number of awards & honorable mentions has grown dramatically despite the number of American Sociology Asssociation sections being constant & membership having declined

Visualizing the Expanding Space of Consecration in American Sociology, 1980–2020. Nicholas Hoover Wilson, Damon Mayrl. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, August 26, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231211038366

Abstract: This visualization explores changes in the scope and dynamics of consecration within American sociology by examining awards granted to members of the American Sociological Association’s (ASA) constituent sections. Consecration is important because it signals quality to nonspecialists, boosts intellectual careers, and can be a crucial vector introducing various forms of inequality. We show that with ASA sections, the number of awards, multiple award winners, and honorable mentions has grown dramatically, especially since 2010, and that this has occurred even as the number of ASA sections has remained constant and overall ASA membership has declined.

Keywords: knowledge, science, consecration, awards, academic disciplines

Capuchin monkeys: Cognitive performance was impaired by negative experiences; contrary to predictions, positive experiences did not have a facilitative effect on cognitive performance

Webster, M. F., & Brosnan, S. F. (2021). The effects of positive and negative experiences on subsequent behavior and cognitive performance in capuchin monkeys (Sapajus [Cebus] apella). Journal of Comparative Psychology, Aug 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/com0000277

Abstract: Our understanding of animals’ affective processing is notably limited compared to the wealth of research on humans, largely due to difficulties in measurement. Moreover, despite a recent increase in the understanding of the interaction between affect and cognition in animals, most research has focused on negative affect, with the result that we continue to know little about the effects of positive affect. In this study, we tested 15 adult capuchin monkeys (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) using a novel methodology that took advantage of capuchins’ species-typical behavior to engineer both a positive and negative experience, using the same apparatus to minimize extraneous impacts. Following a positive or negative experience (that presumably induced positive and negative affect, respectively), or a control with no manipulation, we assessed subjects’ performance on a cognitive task, a computerized delayed match-to-sample. As predicted, behavior following the negative condition suggested a negative affective state, with increased rates of scratching (commonly used as an indicator of stress in nonhuman primates) compared to both the positive and control conditions. Cognitive performance was also impaired in the negative condition compared to the other two. Contrary to predictions, however, the positive condition did not have a facilitative effect on cognitive performance, but behavioral results indicate that we may not have induced a truly positive affective state. Although we add to evidence that a negative experience can influence subsequent behavior and cognitive performance in nonhuman primates, our work highlights our lack of knowledge about the impact of positive affect, if any, on behavior and cognition.

Jealousy was 29% heritable, and non-shared environmental influences explained the remaining variance (71%); no transmission of relationship models from parents to children

Why are some people more jealous than others? Genetic and environmental factors. Tom R. Kupfer et al. Evolution and Human Behavior, August 27 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2021.08.002

Abstract: Research on romantic jealousy has traditionally focused on sex differences. We investigated why individuals vary in romantic jealousy, even within the sexes, using a genetically informed design of ~7700 Finnish twins and their siblings. First, we estimated genetic, shared environmental and nonshared environmental influences on jealousy, Second, we examined relations between jealousy and several variables that have been hypothesized to relate to jealousy because they increase the risk (e.g., mate-value discrepancy) or costs (e.g., restricted sociosexuality) of infidelity. Jealousy was 29% heritable, and non-shared environmental influences explained the remaining variance. The magnitude and sources of genetic influences did not differ between the sexes. Jealousy was associated with: having a lower mate value relative to one's partner; having less trust in one's current partner; having been cheated by a previous or current partner; and having more restricted sociosexual attitude and desire. Within monozygotic twin pairs, the twin with more restricted sociosexual desire and less trust in their partner than his or her co-twin experienced significantly more jealousy, showing that these associations were not merely due to the same genes or family environment giving rise to both sociosexual desire or trust and jealousy. The association between sociosexual attitude and jealousy was predominantly explained by genetic factors (74%), whereas all other associations with jealousy were mostly influenced by nonshared environmental (non-familial) factors (estimates >71%). Overall, our findings provide some of the most robust support to date on the importance of variables predicted by mate-guarding accounts to explain why people vary in jealousy.

Keywords: JealousyTwinsMate value discrepancyTrustInfidelitySociosexualityIndividual differencesGenetics

4. Discussion

The current research aimed to shed light on why people differ in romantic jealousy. Our findings suggest that people differ in jealousy partly because of genetic influences, but mostly because of nonshared environmental influences. We did not detect an influence of the shared environment on jealousy. We also examined associations between jealousy and specific variables that have been hypothesized by mate-guarding accounts to influence jealousy proneness. Our findings provide some of the most robust evidence to date that mate value discrepancy, trustworthiness of a mate, and sociosexuality are associated with romantic jealousy.

Overall, 29% of variation in jealousy was attributable to genetic factors, with the remainder attributable to the nonshared environment. This genetic contribution to variation is on the low side compared to other psychological traits, including measurements of personality and emotions, for which the heritability is typically closer to 50% (Polderman, Benyamin, de Leeuw, et al., 2015). However, our finding is in line with those of Walum, Larsson, Westberg, Lichtenstein, and Magnusson (2013), who reported that sexual and emotional jealousy were 32% and 26% heritable, respectively. Also in line with Wallum et al., we found no evidence for sex differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences on jealousy, or for different genetic or non-shared environmental influences operating in men or women. In other words, even though women reported higher jealousy than men, individual variation in jealousy within the sexes was influenced similarly by genetic and environmental factors.

The finding that familial environmental influences did not influence jealousy has theoretical implications. According to influential accounts of attachment theory, mental models of relationship expectations are transmitted from parents to children, through learning during infancy (Fonagy & Target, 2005; Van IJzendoorn, 1995; Verhage et al., 2016; c.f., Barbaro et al., 2017), and these mental models later determine emotion reactions, including jealousy, towards perceived relationship threats in adulthood (Mikulincer & Shaver, 2005; Sharpsteen & Kirkpatrick, 1997). Our finding that variation in jealousy is not influenced by familial environmental factors, which includes parenting, is inconsistent with these accounts. An implication is that research that seeks to understand variation in – and the development of – jealousy should attend more to genetic and nonshared environmental influences than to shared environmental factors such as parenting behavior. However, one caveat is that a limitation of twin studies is that they do not control for genetic and environmental interplay (for example, parental genes shaping the twin's family environment) which can confound the estimate of the influence of the family environment (Keller, Medland, & Duncan, 2010). Therefore, it is safest to say that we found no influence of the family environment ‘independent of genetic factors’ (Turkheimer, D'Onofrio, Maes, & Eaves, 2005).

In contrast to attachment theory's parental transmission account, mate-guarding perspectives hypothesize that jealousy should be primarily influenced by factors that increase the risk of infidelity by one's mate (Buss, 2013). These will often be socio-ecological variables (e.g., the attractiveness of one's mate, or the number of rivals in one's environment) which presumably derive more from the nonshared environment than the shared environment. Our finding of a substantial nonshared environmental influence on variation in jealousy is therefore consistent with mate-guarding accounts (though not uniquely consistent with those accounts). Note, however, that the estimate of the nonshared environment also includes measurement error.

The second aim of our study was to examine three of the variables predicted by mate-guarding accounts to influence jealousy: mate value discrepancy, cues to a mate's likelihood of infidelity (namely trust and actual experiences of infidelity), and sociosexuality. The strongest predictors of jealousy were more restricted sociosexual attitude and desire. Further, these relations were stronger for people in a relationship and for women. More sociosexually-restricted individuals may be more invested in fewer relationships and more motivated to protect them and, hence, experience more jealousy in response to cues to infidelity threats (Brase et al., 2014; Buss, 2013; Russell & Harton, 2005). Previous studies have most often not detected associations between jealousy and sociosexual orientation (Harris, 2003; Peters et al., 2014; Russell & Harton, 2005), but our findings were based on a much larger sample of individuals (N > 7000) than previous studies. The current finding was further strengthened by the discordant-twin design analysis within monozygotic twin pairs, which also detected a negative association between sociosexual desire and jealousy. This approach suggests that the association does not arise merely because sociosexual desire and jealousy emerge from the same genetic or family environmental sources. Results from the bivariate twin analyses were in accordance because they showed that nonshared environmental factors instead of familial factors explained the majority of the association (71%). Although it is therefore possible that restricted sociosexual desire causes higher jealousy, co-twin-control analyses cannot guarantee causal relationships or rule out reverse causation (McGue et al., 2010). Reverse causation (or bi-directional causation) is plausible, if, for example, individuals with higher jealousy pursue more exclusive relationships to reduce the possibility of infidelity by their mate.

Consistent with previous findings, people who reported being cheated on in the past, and those cheated on in their current relationship, also reported greater jealousy (Bendixen et al., 2015; Burchell & Ward, 2011; Edlund et al., 2006; Murphy et al., 2006; Sagarin et al., 2003). Additionally, having lower trust in one's partner was associated with higher jealousy (both on individual level and when we compared monozygotic co-twins discordant on trust in their partner). Therefore, findings suggest that variables assessing cues to a mate's likelihood of infidelity (trust and actual experiences of infidelity) relate to jealousy.

Also consistent with previous studies (Buss & Shackelford, 1997; Sidelinger & Booth-Butterfield, 2007), individuals who reported having a lower mate value than their partner reported higher jealousy. When examining associations within monozygotic twins only, those associations were non-significant (unlike associations between jealousy and sociosexual desire and mate trustworthiness), so the possibility that the association is due to similar genes influencing both mate value discrepancy and jealousy cannot be ruled out. However, the regression betas in the discordant twin design did not decrease in size, suggesting that the sample size of monozygotic twins may have been underpowered to detect an association. Moreover, the bivariate analyses did not detect familial influences on the association between jealousy and mate value discrepancy, indicating that the association between mate value discrepancy and jealousy is unlikely to be explained by similar genes or shared familial influences.

The study has some limitations. First, all measurements were based on self-reports. While the use of self-report questionnaires is common in psychology research (including most of the jealousy literature), they can be prone to measurement bias due to factors such as social desirability, which could, for example, have contributed to the low prevalence of cheating reported in our sample. Nonetheless, our self-report jealousy scale, which used 11 items describing jealousy-eliciting situations of varying severity, was likely to be a more sensitive measure of jealousy than measures commonly used. Many previous studies (e.g., Walum et al., 2013) have assessed jealousy with only two items asking participants how upset they would be in response to their partner's sexual infidelity and their partner's emotional infidelity. Another limitation was that the sample of discordant twin pairs contributing to the discordant-twin design analyses was much smaller than the sample in the overall regression analyses. Therefore, non-significant effects of sociosexual attitude, being cheated on in the past, and mate value discrepancy on jealousy within monozygotic twins could be due to lower power in these analyses. There are other potentially influential environmental variables that we were not able to assess in the current research. For example, perceived number and quality of rivals has been hypothesized to increase jealousy by increasing risks of cuckoldry or mate poaching (Buss, 2013; Pollet & Saxton, 2020), and perspectives other than the mate-guarding account propose that variables such as self-esteem are associated with jealousy (DeSteno, Valdesolo, & Bartlett, 2006). Future research on these factors using genetically informed studies would be valuable. Additionally, future research would benefit from using children-of-twins or nuclear twin designs that allow for the estimation of interplay between sources of variance that are impossible to disentangle using classical twin designs and might bias estimation of shared environmental influences (Keller et al., 2010).

In summary, this study confirms that people differ in jealousy partly because of genetic influences, but mostly because of nonshared environmental influences. Our findings provide some of the most robust evidence in support of several factors that have been hypothesized by mate-guarding accounts to influence jealousy proneness, and show that these factors similarly influence both men and women. Discerning the causes of variation in jealousy is an important step towards tackling the socially harmful consequences of jealousy, such as domestic violence and homicide.

Increases in happiness, but not in depression, were associated with people being in a higher group of cardiovascular risk, despite the literature that says that subjective well-being has a protective role over cardiovascular health

Happiness is related to cardiovascular risk: a cross-sectional study in Spain. Oriol Yuguero, Ana Blasco-Belled, Álvaro Vilela & Carles Alsinet. Psychology, Health & Medicine, Aug 26 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/13548506.2021.1971726

Abstract: The study of cardiovascular risk factors has been deeply described in recent years, but the findings on the complex role of psychological indicators (i.e. happiness and depression) on cardiovascular health are mixed. The primary goal of our study was to examine the extent to which certain psychological aspects, namely happiness and depression, can predict cardiovascular risk. A sample of 173 (Mage = 44.9, SD = 14; 62% females) individuals from the general population who attended a public hospital of Lleida (Spain) participated voluntarily in the study. We measured happiness, depression and different clinical and sociodemographic variables. The sample reported low levels of depression and moderate levels of happiness, overweight levels of body mass index and mainly low levels of cardiovascular risk. Happiness was correlated positively to cardiovascular risk and negatively to depression. Increases in happiness, but not in depression, were associated with people being in a higher group of cardiovascular risk. Despite a body of literature indicates that subjective well-being has a protective role over cardiovascular health, the contradictory findings of our study might be explained by several factors. The present findings invite to consider the complex and indirect influence of happiness on physical health. Future research should investigate the potential biological and behavioral processes of happiness linked with increases in cardiovascular risk.

KEYWORDS: Happinessdepressioncardiovascular riskmental healthcardiovascular health

A 15 to 25 pct reduction in expected returns for drugs in the top quintile of expected returns is associated with a 0.5 pct annual reduction in number of new drugs in the 1st decade, increasing to an 8 pct in the 3rd decade

Simulation Model of New Drug Development. CBO, Working Paper 2021-09. Aug 26 2021. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57010

Summary: This paper presents the Congressional Budget Office’s simulation model for analyzing legislative proposals that may substantially affect new drug development. The model uses estimates of changes in expected future profits or development costs to estimate the percent change in the number of drug candidates entering the various stages of human clinical trials. Given changes in decisions to enter at each stage, the model estimates when and by how much the number of new drugs entering the market will change. To illustrate the implications of the model, the paper considers a legislative change that lowers expected returns for the top-earning drugs. A 15 percent to 25 percent reduction in expected returns for drugs in the top quintile of expected returns is associated with a 0.5 percent average annual reduction in the number of new drugs entering the market in the first decade under the policy, increasing to an 8 percent annual average reduction in the third decade. The analysis takes the estimated impact of the policy on expected returns as given. In CBO’s assessment, those estimates are in the middle of a wide distribution of potential effects. The effects could be smaller if expenditures in late-phase human trials are larger, for example. Alternatively, the effects could be larger if the cost of capital is larger.

Keywords: health care, prescription drugs, new drug development

Notable sex differences in autonomic functioning among trauma-exposed individuals: A prospective examination

A prospective examination of sex differences in posttraumatic autonomic functioning. Antonia V. Seligowski et al. Neurobiology of Stress, Volume 15, November 2021, 100384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ynstr.2021.100384

Abstract

Background: Cross-sectional studies have found that individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) exhibit deficits in autonomic functioning. While PTSD rates are twice as high in women compared to men, sex differences in autonomic functioning are relatively unknown among trauma-exposed populations. The current study used a prospective design to examine sex differences in posttraumatic autonomic functioning.

Methods: 192 participants were recruited from emergency departments following trauma exposure (Mean age = 35.88, 68.2% female). Skin conductance was measured in the emergency department; fear conditioning was completed two weeks later and included measures of blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and high frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV). PTSD symptoms were assessed 8 weeks after trauma.

Results: 2-week systolic BP was significantly higher in men, while 2-week HR was significantly higher in women, and a sex by PTSD interaction suggested that women who developed PTSD demonstrated the highest HR levels. Two-week HF-HRV was significantly lower in women, and a sex by PTSD interaction suggested that women with PTSD demonstrated the lowest HF-HRV levels. Skin conductance response in the emergency department was associated with 2-week HR and HF-HRV only among women who developed PTSD.

Conclusions: Our results indicate that there are notable sex differences in autonomic functioning among trauma-exposed individuals. Differences in sympathetic biomarkers (BP and HR) may have implications for cardiovascular disease risk given that sympathetic arousal is a mechanism implicated in this risk among PTSD populations. Future research examining differential pathways between PTSD and cardiovascular risk among men versus women is warranted.

Keywords: TraumaPTSDAutonomicSexCardiovascular

5. Discussion

This study used a prospective design to examine sex differences in autonomic functioning among a sample of recently traumatized men and women. Sex differences were observed and varied by biomarker. While men demonstrated significantly higher BP and rates of hypertension, women demonstrated significantly higher HR and lower HF-HRV, and these effects were strongest among women who subsequently developed PTSD. Further, acute sympathetic arousal (indexed via skin conductance response) associated with HR and HF-HRV during fear conditioning but only among women who developed PTSD.

Our findings regarding BP and hypertension are consistent with what is commonly observed in the general population, such that men are more likely than women to experience hypertension (American Heart Association, heart.org). This sex difference is known to decrease among older age groups and it is thought that decreasing estradiol levels as a result of menopause in women play a role (i.e., estradiol is cardioprotective and may explain lower rates of hypertension in pre-menopausal women; for reviews, see Colafella and Denton, 2018; Regitz-Zagrosek et al., 2016). It is important to note that the average age in our sample was 35 and thus most women were pre-menopausal. While prior studies have found that individuals with PTSD demonstrate higher BP than those without PTSD (for a review, see Buckley and Kaloupek, 2001), we did not observe an effect of PTSD status. One potential explanation is that our sample is not as highly traumatized as comparisons in prior work (e.g., most participants were in motor vehicle collisions). Similarly, BP was assessed with only one measurement and this occurred two weeks following trauma exposure. It is therefore possible that the higher levels of BP observed in prior PTSD studies were a result of more chronic PTSD symptoms and sympathetic hyperarousal, which our study did not capture.

In terms of HR and HF-HRV, our findings indicate that women experienced worse autonomic functioning during fear conditioning compared to men, and this was particularly seen in those women who subsequently developed PTSD. Specifically, trauma-exposed women demonstrated stronger sympathetic arousal and worse parasympathetic control than men during fear learning, where main effects of sex were observed, and those with PTSD demonstrated particularly worse functioning during extinction. This is consistent with prior literature implicating extinction deficits as a biomarker specific to PTSD (Jovanovic et al., 2012) and further suggests that women may be more likely than men to experience these deficits. Given that HF-HRV has been shown to be higher in healthy women compared to men (for a review, see Koenig and Thayer, 2016), our findings also highlight the importance of trauma and PTSD status in sex differences in autonomic function. The lack of sex differences in eyeblink startle (a brainstem-mediated reflex and not an autonomic indicator) suggests that there may be specificity of our sex-based findings to peripheral autonomic and cardiovascular physiology (i.e., HR and HF-HRV). Additionally, low levels of estradiol have been implicated as a contributing factor to fear inhibition and extinction deficits in women with PTSD (indexed via eyeblink startle; Glover et al., 2012, 2013) as well as healthy controls (indexed via skin conductance; Milad et al., 2010). Thus, future research is needed to determine if an interaction between PTSD status and high versus low estradiol confers greater risk for autonomic and inhibition/extinction deficits (indexed via startle) in trauma-exposed women.

eSense has previously demonstrated utility in predicting PTSD status and symptom trajectory when used to measure skin conductance in recently traumatized individuals in emergency departments (Hinrichs et al., 2019). Our findings suggest it may have additional, and perhaps more specific utility among women, such that eSense skin conductance levels were significantly associated with future HR and HF-HRV only in women who developed PTSD. Given that autonomic deficits have been implicated in the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in PTSD, future research testing eSense as a predictor of autonomic functioning and subsequent cardiac events could be extremely useful in determining which trauma-exposed individuals are at highest risk for developing cardiovascular disease. Findings from the current study indicate that this may be a particularly useful tool among women, though replication is needed.

Our findings regarding sex differences in autonomic functioning may have clinical implications. Specifically, men and women differed in their sympathetic arousal, with men demonstrating higher BP and women demonstrating higher HR. Further, women demonstrated lower parasympathetic function than men. As mentioned above, autonomic deficits have been implicated in the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in PTSD. Our findings suggest that the specific autonomic mechanisms through which cardiovascular disease develops could differ for men versus women with PTSD. For example, there is preliminary evidence that blockade of the renin-angiotensin system (responsible for BP regulation) via ace-inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers is associated with decreased likelihood of PTSD diagnosis (Khoury et al., 2012; Seligowski et al., 2021). We recently observed a sex effect such that the protective effects of these medications may be greater among men versus women (Seligowski et al., 2021). Thus, medications targeting BP may be more effective in men versus women with PTSD because men are more likely to experience hypertension and therefore see an effect of such medications. Prospective trials of antihypertensive medications for PTSD are needed to further explore sex differences in their effects. Another possible avenue for future trials is to determine if the autonomic deficits we observed during extinction in women with PTSD translate to clinical outcomes (e.g., do women with PTSD experience less symptom reduction from exposure treatments than men?). Thus far, sex differences in exposure-based treatments have not been reported, but we are not aware of any trials that examined sex differences in autonomic functioning during these treatments.

While capturing acute trauma reactions with a prospective design is a strength of this study, an important limitation is that our sample is not as highly symptomatic as comparisons from the literature. For example, we did not see main effects of PTSD status on BP, HR, of HF-HRV and this may be due to the recency of trauma exposure and the absence of severe PTSD symptoms in this cohort. Another limitation relates to trauma type, such that the index trauma for most participants was a motor vehicle collision and the incidence of PTSD in that population is lower than that of other trauma types, such as interpersonal violence and combat exposure (Kessler et al., 2017). Additionally, while we used a recommended cutoff for provisional PTSD diagnosis (Bovin et al., 2016) at 8-weeks, the current study relied on self-reported symptoms and did not include a structured clinical interview of PTSD. Future studies with more robust PTSD assessment among individuals with a broader range of trauma exposure will be needed to replicate and extend our findings. Despite these limitations, this study adds to a very scant literature regarding both 1) prospective assessments of posttraumatic autonomic functioning and 2) sex differences in posttraumatic autonomic functioning.

The current study identified sex differences in multiple domains of autonomic functioning among a recently traumatized sample. Our findings suggest that men and women demonstrate different patterns of sympathetic arousal, with men exhibiting higher BP and women exhibiting higher HR. Women also exhibited worse parasympathetic function as indicated by lower HF-HRV during fear conditioning, as was particularly seen in women who developed PTSD. Acute sympathetic arousal indexed by skin conductance in the emergency department was associated with HR and HF-HRV among women who developed PTSD, suggesting it may be a useful biomarker of subsequent autonomic functioning in this population. Additional studies examining subsequent sex differences in cardiovascular risk as a result of differential autonomic mechanisms are warranted.

Consumers Believe That Products Work Better for Others... including that medical products, social distancing against COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

Consumers Believe That Products Work Better for Others. Evan Polman, Ignazio Ziano, Kaiyang Wu, Anneleen Van Kerckhove. Journal of Consumer Research, ucab048, August 18 2021. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucab048

Abstract: Consumers tend to see themselves in a positive light, yet we present evidence that they are pessimistic about whether they will receive a product’s benefits. In 15 studies (N = 6,547; including nine pre-registered), we found that consumers believe that product efficacy is higher for others than it is for themselves. For example, consumers believe that consuming an adult coloring book (to inspire creativity), a sports drink (to satisfy thirst), medicine (to relieve pain), or an online class (to learn something new) will have a greater effect on others than on themselves. We show that this bias holds across many kinds of products and judgment-targets, and inversely correlates with factors such as product familiarity, product usefulness, and relationship closeness with judgment-targets. Moreover, we find this bias stems from consumers’ beliefs they are more unique and less malleable than others, and that it alters the choices people make for others. We conclude by discussing implications for research on gift-giving, advice-giving, usership, and interpersonal social, health, and financial choices.

Keywords: perceived product efficacy, self-other differences, stimulus sampling, linear mixed effects modeling, perceived uniqueness, perceived malleability

After finding they were right, participants could send a neutral message or a message that included "I told you so"; most participants sent, at least once, "I told you so," despite not liking hearing that statement themselves

Impression (Mis)Management: When What You Say Is Not What They Hear. Ovul Sezer. Current Opinion in Psychology, August 26 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.08.025

Abstract: Impression management is a fundamental aspect of social life. From self-promotion to feedback giving, from advice-seeking to networking, people frequently find themselves in situations where they need to make a positive impression on others. Despite the long-term benefits of making a favorable impression, impression-management attempts can backfire in unintended ways. In this article, I review recent research on self-presentation, social cognition, and communication to explain when and why people have misguided intuitions about their impressions on others, document common impression-management mistakes, and propose more effective strategies to minimize actor-target asymmetries in social interactions. This review provides a theoretical framework to understand the psychology of impression (mis)management, as well as the risks and rewards of different self-presentation strategies.

Comments on Secretary Blinken's words... If the Taliban behave well enough, "that’s a government we can work with"

Secretary Blinken: If the Taliban behave well enough, "that’s a government we can work with". A friend's note, sent to Sec Blinken, Aug 26 2021, after his comments.

Mr Secretary, in a press conference you said: "But fundamentally, the nature of that engagement and the nature of any relationship depends entirely on the actions and conduct of the Taliban.  If a future government upholds the basic rights of the Afghan people, if it makes good on its commitments to ensure that Afghanistan cannot be used as a launching pad for terrorist attacks directed against us and our allies and partners, and in the first instance, if it makes good on its commitments to allow people who want to leave Afghanistan to leave, that’s a government we can work with.  If it doesn’t, we will make sure that we use every appropriate tool at our disposal to isolate that government, and as I said before, Afghanistan will be a pariah."

Just for your information, the twelfth report of a UN team, the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team (established pursuant to resolution 1526 (2004)), submitted in July 2021 a report to the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1988 (2011), in accordance with paragraph (a) of the annex to resolution 2557 (2020), which says (notes deleted), pp 13-14:

"47. The killing of several Al-Qaida commanders in Taliban-controlled territory underscores the closeness of the two groups. Following the death of al-Rauf in October, the Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent deputy, Mohammad Hanif (alias Abdullah), was killed on 10 November 2020 in Bakwa District of Farah Province. According to a Member State, he had been providing bomb-making training to Taliban insurgents in that location. Both individuals appear to have been given shelter and protection by the Taliban. On 30 March 2021, Afghan Forces led a raid in Gyan District of Paktika Province that killed a prominent Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent commander, Dawlat Bek Tajiki (alias Abu Mohammad al-Tajiki), alongside Hazrat Ali, a Taliban commander from Waziristan.

"48. Al-Qaida’s presence in Afghanistan has also been confirmed by its own affiliated propaganda and media wings. Al-Qaida’s weekly Thabat newsletter reported on Al-Qaida operations inside Afghanistan, listing Al-Qaida attacks since 2020 in 18 provinces."

Also, it says, p 12: "42. According to Member State information, Al-Qaida is resident in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the east, southern and south-eastern regions. [...]"

[...]

Some people around the world report they would choose a psychologically rich life at the expense of a happy/meaningful life, and that approx 1/3 say that undoing their life’s biggest regret would have made their lives psychologically richer

Oishi, S., & Westgate, E. C. (2021). A psychologically rich life: Beyond happiness and meaning. Psychological Review, Aug 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000317

Abstract: Psychological science has typically conceptualized a good life in terms of either hedonic or eudaimonic well-being. We propose that psychological richness is another, neglected aspect of what people consider a good life. Unlike happy or meaningful lives, psychologically rich lives are best characterized by a variety of interesting and perspective-changing experiences. We present empirical evidence that happiness, meaning, and psychological richness are related but distinct and desirable aspects of a good life, with unique causes and correlates. In doing so, we show that a nontrivial number of people around the world report they would choose a psychologically rich life at the expense of a happy or meaningful life, and that approximately a third say that undoing their life’s biggest regret would have made their lives psychologically richer. Furthermore, we propose that the predictors of a psychologically rich life are different from those of a happy life or a meaningful life, and report evidence suggesting that people leading psychologically rich lives tend to be more curious, think more holistically, and lean more politically liberal. Together, this work moves us beyond the dichotomy of hedonic versus eudaimonic well-being, and lays the foundation for the study of psychological richness as another dimension of a good life.

Popular version: A 'Good' Life Doesn't Necessarily Have to Be Happy, New Psychology Research Shows (sciencealert.com)

Some highly satisfied individuals were also more likely to have engaged in infidelity, suggesting a more complex relationship between relationship satisfaction and infidelity

Is Infidelity Predictable? Using Explainable Machine Learning to Identify the Most Important Predictors of Infidelity. Laura M. Vowels, Matthew J. Vowels & Kristen P. Mark. The Journal of Sex Research, Aug 25 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224499.2021.1967846

Abstract: Infidelity can be a disruptive event in a romantic relationship with a devastating impact on both partners’ well-being. Thus, there are benefits to identifying factors that can explain or predict infidelity, but prior research has not utilized methods that would provide the relative importance of each predictor. We used a machine learning algorithm, random forest (a type of interpretable highly non-linear decision tree), to predict in-person and online infidelity across two studies (one individual and one dyadic, N = 1,295). We also used a game theoretic explanation technique, Shapley values, which allowed us to estimate the effect size of each predictor variable on infidelity. The present study showed that infidelity was somewhat predictable overall and interpersonal factors such as relationship satisfaction, love, desire, and relationship length were the most predictive of online and in person infidelity. The results suggest that addressing relationship difficulties early in the relationship may help prevent infidelity.

Discussion

Infidelity is relatively common, with up to half of those in relationships having engaged in infidelity (Mark & Haus, 2019; Mark et al., 2011; Thompson & O’Sullivan, 2016) with potentially devastating consequences for relationships causing distress (Thompson & O’Sullivan, 2016) and often divorce (Amato & Previti, 2004). Infidelity is likely to affect not only the couple members but also their children, extended family, and friends. It is important to identify potential risk factors for infidelity to target interventions that could prevent infidelity from occurring in the first place. The purpose of the present study was to identify potential factors associated with infidelity and to quantify and compare different factors to better understand which variables are the most strongly associated with infidelity.

A large body of literature has attempted to identify which factors contribute to infidelity. However, the studies have relied exclusively on linear models, which are often completely uninterpretable due to problems such as incorrect specification of the underlying causal structure, multicollinearity, unattainable parametric assumptions, and inability to examine complex associations (Breiman, 2001a; Lundberg et al., 2020; Yarkoni & Westfall, 2017). The present study is the first of its kind to examine predictors of infidelity using interpretable predictive models: random forests (Breiman, 2001b) with Shapley values (Lundberg et al., 2017, 2019). Based on our findings, the short answer to the question posed in the title, “is infidelity predictable?,” is somewhat. The effect sizes that consider the true and false positives and negatives of both classes ranged between small (.18) to large effect (.49) across analyses and samples suggesting that even though we were able to predict infidelity generally well above chance level, there are also other factors that we had not accounted for.

The Comparison of Predictors of Infidelity

While we examined the predictive accuracy of our models, our main aim was to compare a range of different factors in their ability to predict infidelity. A recent systematic review found that while demographics and individual characteristics are inconsistently associated with infidelity, relationship variables tend to be more consistent across studies (Haseli et al., 2019). We also found that relationship characteristics (relationship satisfaction, relationship length, dyadic desire, sexual satisfaction, romantic love, and some sexual activities within the relationship) were consistently in the top-10 most important predictors across different samples. These findings suggest that addressing relationship issues may buffer against the likelihood of one partner going out of the relationship to seek fulfillment. However, it is also important to note that while individuals who were more satisfied in their relationship were generally less likely to engage in infidelity, a subsample of highly satisfied individuals had engaged in infidelity in the past. This may either reflect the idea that infidelity does also occur in happy relationships (Perel, 2017) or perhaps couples have worked through the infidelity and by the time they responded to the survey were satisfied in their relationship (Olson et al., 2002).

Furthermore, because online infidelity has become more commonplace given the technological advances in recent years (Albright, 2008), we also examined predictors of online infidelity. Interestingly, one of the strongest predictors of a decreased likelihood of having engaged in infidelity online was never having had anal sex in the present relationship. This may reflect more restrictive attitudes toward sexuality overall. Indeed, attitudes toward sexuality were measured in Study 1 and ranked among the Top-10 predictors of online infidelity. However, the relationship was more complex, with the most liberal sexual attitudes predicting an increase in likelihood of having engaged in infidelity whereas more moderate and conservative attitudes predicted a decrease. These results are in line with other studies that have found that more permissive sexual attitudes have been associated with an increased likelihood of having engaged in infidelity (Fincham & May, 2017; Haseli et al., 2019; Martins et al., 2016). Higher relationship length and sexual desire also increased the likelihood of having engaged in online infidelity. However, sexual and relationship satisfaction were only among the top predictors in one of the two samples.

The results of the present study corroborate many of the existing studies, and akin to a recent systematic review (Haseli et al., 2019), show that the most robust predictors of infidelity lie within the relationship: individuals who are more satisfied and in love in their relationship are less likely to have engaged in infidelity. There are also a number of factors that have previously been associated with infidelity that were not among the most important predictors in the present study: education (Atkins et al., 2001; Martins et al., 2016; Treas & Giesen, 2000), relationship status (Amato & Previti, 2004; Fincham & May, 2017), and attachment (Fincham & May, 2017; Haseli et al., 2019; McDaniel et al., 2017). We only examined attachment in Study 1 and higher attachment avoidance did predict an increased likelihood of having engaged in infidelity in the total sample but was not among the top-10 predictors for men or women. Attachment anxiety was not predictive of past infidelity. Furthermore, many previous studies suggest that men are more likely to engage in sexual infidelity than women (Labrecque & Whisman, 2017; Petersen & Hyde, 2010). In the present study, being a man was only an important predictor of past online infidelity in one sample, supporting studies that have found that the gender gap in infidelity is decreasing (Allen et al., 2006; Fincham & May, 2017; Mark et al., 2011; Treas & Giesen, 2000).

There were also some inconsistencies in the findings across the two samples. In Study 1, hormonal contraceptives decreased the likelihood of men having engaged in online infidelity whereas in Study 2 the use of hormonal contraceptives increased the likelihood of both men and women having engaged in online infidelity. The use of hormonal contraceptives does not prevent sexually transmitted infections and therefore increases the likelihood of passing any potential infections from the infidelity partner to the primary partner. This may deter people from engaging in infidelity face-to-face and instead seek alternative partners online. It is not clear why in one sample hormonal contraceptives increased the likelihood of engaging in infidelity and in another decreased it and the role of contraceptives on infidelity warrants further investigation. Furthermore, because each individual predictor only predicted very little variance in the outcome, interpreting each individual variable becomes more difficult. When the signal is stronger (i.e., a variable predicts a larger amount of variance) the prediction also becomes more accurate.

Implications for Theory and Future Research

The present study examined predictors of infidelity from the ecological theory perspective (Bronfenbrenner, 1994). Specifically, we tested the ECSD model from a recent systematic review that suggested that both partners’ individual as well as couple’s factors predict infidelity. We found little evidence to suggest that partner variables predicted actor’s engagement in infidelity. In fact, in some analyses the predictive accuracy of the models decreased as a result of including partner variables in the models, suggesting that adding partner factors in the models may add noise that makes it more difficult for the model to make accurate predictions. Additionally, the present study suggested that relationship-related variables contributed the most to the prediction. However, it is important to caveat these findings in that we were essentially predicting infidelity in the past from the present variables. Therefore, it is possible that couples in which infidelity had occurred had worked through the infidelity and were now happier in their relationship than before.

In addition to relational variables, variables that tapped into people’s attitudes were also predictive of both in person and online infidelity. Overall, having less permissive attitudes toward sexuality suggested a decreased likelihood of having engaged in infidelity. Individuals with highly liberal attitudes were the most likely to have engaged in infidelity in the past. Certain sexual behaviors such as the use of sex toys, anal sex, and masturbation with a partner may also have acted as a proxy for attitudes in the present study. Indeed, previous studies have suggested that sexual attitudes and behaviors go hand in hand (Lefkowitz et al., 2014). The results of the present study suggested that individuals who had not engaged in traditionally more permissive sexual behaviors such as using sex toys or having anal sex were less likely to also have engaged in infidelity. Most other individual variables were not consistently among the Top-10 predictors of infidelity, which may explain why the results from previous studies (Haseli et al., 2019; Mark & Haus, 2019) have been inconsistent, especially when examining socio-demographic variables.

Finally, the purpose of the present study was to examine a range of variables in their ability to predict infidelity. Overall, each variable alone predicted little variance in infidelity. Therefore, the results do not suggest that there is one single, or a few, variables that are highly predictive of infidelity. Instead, a large number of variables together resulted in the algorithm’s overall ability to predict infidelity with a moderate to large effect size. Relationship variables together explained the largest amount of variance in the predictions. Relationship variables, however, are more likely to vary over time compared to certain individual characteristics (such as socio-demographic variables or attachment style). The prediction accuracy may have increased if the infidelity and relationship quality had been measured closer in time. Therefore, future research is needed to examine recent infidelity to more fully understand how relationship characteristics relate to infidelity. Additionally, because each variable contributed little to the overall prediction accuracy, using machine learning models with a large number of variables instead of focusing on single variables for predicting infidelity may be more fruitful in being able to predict who has or will engage in infidelity. This does not help target-specific factors but may be used to identify individuals or relationships who may be at a higher risk.

Strengths and Limitations

The present study adds to our understanding of the most important predictors for infidelity across two samples. We used a powerful interpretable machine learning technique that allowed us to produce reliable estimates of the effect sizes of each variable both for the mean effect as well as the spread of the individual effects (Lundberg et al., 2017, 2019). Using this method, we were also able to compare a large number of predictors simultaneously and estimate any non-linear associations and complex interactions. We also examined both in-person and online infidelity.

However, the study also had several limitations that should be considered. First, we used a single-item measure of in-person and online infidelity. We were thus unable to account for specific infidelity behaviors and did not examine emotional infidelity. Future research is needed to examine a wider range of infidelity behaviors to better understand whether the same predictors generalize across multiple forms of infidelity or whether these are predicted by different variables. The results from the present study suggest that these may be somewhat different given that the most important predictors of in-person and online infidelity also varied. Second, while we examined infidelity across two large samples with one sample including data from both members of the couple, the studies were all cross-sectional and it is not clear how recently the infidelity occurred. Therefore, some of the factors may have changed from when the infidelity occurred to when the participants completed the survey. This is a difficulty across most other studies on infidelity, but future research should examine infidelity over time or to conduct surveys on individuals who have just engaged in infidelity. Third, over 30% of the participants in Study 1 reported past infidelity. However, the number of participants who had engaged in infidelity in the dyadic sample was much lower. This made it more difficult for the algorithm to accurately predict infidelity which is reflected in lower precision and recall for the infidelity class compared to no infidelity. We used balanced random forests to mitigate this issue, but we still had less data available of people with past infidelity.

Furthermore, each variable contributed very little to the overall classification accuracy. Therefore, interpretation of the results may be less accurate than when individual variables have a clearer signal. Additionally, while random forests are a powerful tool that will take advantage of any correlations and interactions in the data, no matter how non-linear, it cannot be used to estimate causality. However, in the absence of a means to reliably estimate causality when examining factors relating to infidelity (after all we cannot create experiments in which we make people engage in infidelity), we believe that using a predictive model is perhaps the best option. Finally, we chose to use a random forest algorithm because of a moderate sample size. Random forests have been shown to perform well with their default settings without the need for hyperparameter tuning (Probst et al., 2019). Tuning hyperparameters requires a separate training set which would make the sample size in the test data smaller. However, there may be other algorithms that would perform better or similarly with hyperparameter tuning. Therefore, future research in larger samples could use different algorithms to compare the performance of different algorithms.