Sunday, January 27, 2019

Is the InterNet killing cultural expression? Seems not.

Is the InterNet killing the movies industry? Do we see progress in economics but at the same time is cultural expression decaying? Actually, it seems we are doing well:


Growth of US origin features, 2000-2016, as shows by queries to the IMDb. Fig 3.1 [1]

Check also Record Number of Films Produced [2].


Data from UNESCO database shows what the production of quality film was in previous years (I take documentaries as a measure of quality films) [3]. Number of documentary feature films in the UK at the same time the InterNet explodes and cheap cameras make their appearance:

2005    2
2007    9
2008    62
2009    58
2010    55
2011    56
2012    73
2013    44
2014    85
2015    79

To compare, these are the fictional feature films in the UK, according to the same DB:

2005    162
2007    112
2008    215
2009    248
2010    285
2011    239
2012    249
2013    197
2014    253
2015    213

Is greater production worse? Or better? A way to measure quality of all movies, regardless of genre, is Rotten Tomatoes [4]. These are the movies scoring 84+, 1998-2016 (Fig 3.4 [1]):





References
[1]  Joel Waldfogel's Digital Reinassance. Princeton: Princeton Univ Press, 2018.

[2]  UNESCO, Mar 31 2016, http://uis.unesco.org/en/news/record-number-films-produced

[3]  UNESCO data, accessed Jan 2018: data.uis.unesco.org

[4]  www.rottentomatoes.com/top

The Rise of Pseudomedicine for Dementia and Brain Health

The Rise of Pseudomedicine for Dementia and Brain Health. Joanna Hellmuth, Gil D. Rabinovici, Bruce L. Miller. JAMA, January 25 2019, doi:10.1001/jama.2018.21560

The US population is aging, and with it is an increasing prevalence of Alzheimer disease, which lacks effective approaches for prevention or a cure.1 Many individuals are concerned about developing cognitive changes and dementia. With increasing amounts of readily accessible information, people independently seek and find material about brain health interventions, although not all sources contain quality medical information.

This landscape of limited treatments for dementia, concern about Alzheimer disease, and wide access to information have brought a troubling increase in “pseudomedicine.” Pseudomedicine refers to supplements and medical interventions that exist within the law and are often promoted as scientifically supported treatments, but lack credible efficacy data. Practitioners of pseudomedicine often appeal to health concerns, promote individual testimony as established fact, advocate for unproven therapies, and achieve financial gains.

With neurodegenerative disease, the most common example of pseudomedicine is the promotion of dietary supplements to improve cognition and brain health. This $3.2-billion industry promoting brain health benefits from high-penetration consumer advertising through print media, radio, television, and the internet.2 No known dietary supplement prevents cognitive decline or dementia, yet supplements advertised as such are widely available and appear to gain legitimacy when sold by major US retailers. Consumers are often unaware that dietary supplements do not undergo US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) testing for safety or review for efficacy. Indeed, supplements may cause harm, as has been shown with vitamin E, which may increase risk of hemorrhagic stroke, and, in high doses, increase risk of death.3,4 The Alzheimer’s Association highlights these concerns, noting that many of these supplements are promoted by testimony rather than science.5 These brain health supplements can also be costly, and discussion of them in clinical settings can subvert valuable time needed for clinicians and patients to review other interventions.

Patients and caregivers encounter sophisticated techniques that supply false “scientific” backing for brain health interventions. For example, referring to scientific integrity, Feynman coined the term “cargo cult science” to describe endeavors that follow “…the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they’re missing something essential….”6 Cargo cult science is apparent in material promoting some brain health supplements; “evidence” is presented in a scientific-appearing format that lacks actual substance and rigor. Feynman suggested 1 feature of scientific integrity is “bending over backwards to show how [the study] may be wrong…,” which is a feature that is often lacking when interventions are promoted for financial gain.6

A similarly concerning category of pseudomedicine involves interventions promoted by licensed medical professionals that target unsubstantiated etiologies of neurodegenerative disease (eg, metal toxicity; mold exposure; infectious causes, such as Lyme disease). Some of these practitioners may stand to gain financially by promoting interventions that are not covered by insurance, such as intravenous nutrition, personalized detoxification, chelation therapy, antibiotics, or stem cell therapy. These interventions lack a known mechanism for treating dementia and are costly, unregulated, and potentially harmful.

Recently, detailed protocols to reverse cognitive changes have been promoted, but these protocols merely repackage known dementia interventions (eg, cognitive training, exercise, a heart-healthy diet) and add supplements and other lifestyle changes. Such protocols are promoted by medical professionals with legitimate credentials, offer a unique holistic and personal approach, and are said to be based on rigorous data published in reputable journals. However, when examining the primary data, the troubling and familiar patterns of testimony and cargo cult science emerge. The primary scientific articles superficially appear valid, yet lack essential features, such as sufficient participant characterization, uniform interventions, or treatment randomization with control or placebo groups, and may fail to include sufficient study limitations. Some of these poor-quality studies may be published in predatory open access journals.7

An argument can be made that even though pseudomedicine may be ethically questionable, these interventions are relatively benign and offer hope for patients facing an incurable disease. However, these interventions are not ethically, medically, or financially benign for patients or their families. While appealing to a sense of hope can be a motivating factor for clinical trials or complementary or alternative practices, the difference is in how these circumstances are framed. Complementary or alternative practices are often adjunct treatments and might not result in direct financial gain by the practitioner recommending the therapy. Further, in clinical trials, there are structured conversations between researchers and participants (such as during the informed consent process) that include research coordinators explaining that any studied interventions are experimental, may result in no gain, and can cause harm. In contrast, pseudomedicine may involve unethical gain for practitioners and manufactured illusion of benefit for patients.

What Can Be Done?

Health care professionals have the responsibility to learn about common pseudomedicine interventions. If a patient or family member inquiries about such an intervention, clinicians can take several steps:

    Understand that motivations to pursue such interventions often come from a desire to obtain the best medical care, and convey that understanding to the patients.

    Provide honest scientific interpretation of any supporting evidence, along with the associated risks and costs. This approach creates a productive dialogue, rather than dismissing any inquiries outright.

    Appropriately label pseudomedicine interventions as such.

    Differentiate testimony from data, and assess whether studies display scientific integrity by “bending over backward” to address any limitations.

    Suggest an exploration of the financial interests behind the intervention (eg, the sale of supplements, out-of-pocket payments to a clinician or organization, book sales). Note that the gain may not only be financial, but also temporary fame that can accompany spearheading a new protocol.6

    Provide education on the US Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act that limits FDA testing and regulation of supplements.

    Point out that any effective interventions for common diseases would already be widely used.

    Express a willingness to continue to partner with patients in their medical care even if opinions and interpretations about pseudomedicine differ.

Conclusions: It is disheartening that patients with dementia and their family members are targeted by practitioners and companies motivated by self-interest. Physicians have an ethical mandate to protect patients who may be vulnerable to promotion by these entities. More needs to be done on a national level to limit the claims of benefit for interventions that lack proven efficacy. Clinicians must distinguish testimony and cargo cult science from quality medical research and explain when interventions may appear to represent pseudomedicine. While unethical forces promote the existence of pseudomedicine, an educated community of physicians and patients is the starting point to counteract these practices.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Theories of God: Explanatory coherence in religious cognition

Theories of God: Explanatory coherence in religious cognition. Andrew Shtulman, Max Rattner. PLOS, December 26, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0209758

Abstract: Representations of God in art, literature, and discourse range from the highly anthropomorphic to the highly abstract. The present study explored whether people who endorse anthropomorphic God concepts hold different religious beliefs and engage in different religious practices than those who endorse abstract concepts. Adults of various religious affiliations (n = 275) completed a questionnaire that probed their beliefs about God, angels, Satan, Heaven, Hell, cosmogenesis, anthropogenesis, human suffering, and human misdeeds, as well as their experiences regarding prayer, worship, and religious development. Responses to the questionnaire were analyzed by how strongly participants anthropomorphized God in a property-attribution task. Overall, the more participants anthropomorphized God, the more concretely they interpreted religious ideas, importing their understanding of human affairs into their understanding of divine affairs. These findings suggest not only that individuals vary greatly in how they interpret the same religious ideas but also that those interpretations cohere along a concrete-to-abstract dimension, anchored on the concrete side by our everyday notions of people.

Testosterone doesn't impair mens' cognitive empathy: Evidence from two large-scale randomized controlled trials

Does testosterone impair mens' cognitive empathy? Evidence from two large-scale randomized controlled trials. Amos Nadler, David Zava, Triana Ortiz, Neil Watson, Justin Carre, Colin Camerer, Gideon Nave. bioRxiv 516344, https://doi.org/10.1101/516344

Abstract: The capacity to infer the mental states of others (known as cognitive empathy) is essential for social interactions, and a well-known theory proposes that it is negatively affected by intrauterine testosterone exposure. Furthermore, previous studies reported that testosterone administration impaired cognitive empathy in healthy adults, and that a biomarker of prenatal testosterone exposure (finger digit ratios) moderated the effect. However, empirical support for the relationship has relied on small-sample studies with mixed evidence. We investigate the reliability and generalizability of the relationship in two large-scale double-blind placebo-controlled experiments in young men (N=243 and N=400), using two different testosterone administration protocols. We find no evidence that cognitive empathy is impaired by testosterone administration or associated with digit ratios. With an unprecedented combined sample size, these results counter current theories and previous high-profile reports, and demonstrate that previous investigations of this topic have been statistically underpowered.

Penis size over-reporting is more prevalent among experienced college men than in less experienced ones; may be due to a greater sense of masculinity & sexual competence and prowess by experienced men

Social Desirability and Young Men’s Self-Reports of Penis Size. Bruce M. King, Lauren M. Duncan, Kelley M. Clinkenbeard, Morgan B. Rutland & Kelly M. Ryan. Journal of Sex & Marital Therapy, https://doi.org/10.1080/0092623X.2018.1533905

Abstract: Previous studies demonstrate that many men have insecurities about the size of their penises, often resulting in low sexual self-esteem and sexual problems. In the present study, mean self-reported erect penis length by 130 sexually experienced college men (6.62 inches) was greater than found in previous studies in which researchers took measurements. This suggests that many of the men embellished their responses. Only 26.9% of the sexually experienced men self-reported penis lengths of less than 6 inches, while 30.8% self-reported lengths of 7 inches or more (with 10% self-reporting 8 inches or more). The correlation with Marlowe–Crowne social desirability scores was +.257 (p < .01), indicating that men with a high level of social desirability were more likely than others to self-report having a large penis.

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The difference between sexually experienced and inexperienced men for self-reported penis size has not previously been reported but suggests that over-reporting is more prevalent among experienced men, thus accounting for the stronger correlation in that group. We speculate that the difference between the two groups is due to a greater sense of masculinity and sexual competence and prowess by experienced men.
 

Women high on narcissism were more likely to engage in blatant lying, machiavellianism predicted blatant lying & lying to avoid confrontation; primary & secondary psychopathy predicted self-serving deception

Dark triad traits and women's use of sexual deception. Gayle Brewer, Demi De  Griffa, Ezgi Uzun. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 142, 1 May 2019, Pages 42-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.01.033

Highlights
•    Dark Triad traits independently predict women's use of sexual deception.
•    Women high on narcissism were more likely to engage in blatant lying.
•    Machiavellianism predicted blatant lying and lying to avoid confrontation.
•    Primary and secondary psychopathy each predicted the use of self-serving deception.

Abstract: Dark Triad traits are related but distinct personality traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy) characterised by emotional coldness, exploitation, and a lack of empathy. Previous research investigates Dark Triad traits in relation to sexual behaviour and the use of deception in mating contexts. Few studies have, however, considered the types of sexual deception performed by those high on Dark Triad traits. In the present study, heterosexual women (N = 217) aged 18–59 years completed a series of online questionnaires assessing Dark Triad traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, primary and secondary psychopathy) and sexual deception (blatant lying, self-serving deception, and avoiding confrontation). Multiple regression analyses indicate that Dark Triad traits are associated with each form of sexual deception investigated. Women high on narcissism were more likely to engage in blatant lying whilst Machiavellianism was associated with greater use of blatant lying and lying to avoid confrontation. Primary and secondary psychopathies were each associated with self-serving deception. Future studies should consider Dark Triad traits in relation to the effectiveness of each form of deception employed.

Unlearning implicit racial and gender biases during sleep: A failure to replicate Hu et al. (2015)

Unlearning implicit social biases during sleep: A failure to replicate. Graelyn B. Humiston, Erin J. Wamsley. PLOS January 25, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211416

Abstract: A 2015 article in Science (Hu et al.) proposed a new way to reduce implicit racial and gender biases during sleep. The method built on an existing counter-stereotype training procedure, using targeted memory reactivation to strengthen counter-stereotype memory by playing cues associated with the training during a 90min nap. If effective, this procedure would have potential real-world usefulness in reducing implicit biases and their myriad effects. We replicated this procedure on a sample of n = 31 college students. Contrary to the results reported by Hu et al., we found no effect of cueing on implicit bias, either immediately following the nap or one week later. In fact, bias was non-significantly greater for cued than for uncued stimuli. Our failure to detect an effect of cueing on implicit bias could indicate either that the original report was a false positive, or that the current study is a false negative. However, several factors argue against Type II error in the current study. Critically, this replication was powered at 0.9 for detecting the originally reported cueing effect. Additionally, the 95% confidence interval for the cueing effect in the present study did not overlap with that of the originally reported effect; therefore, our observations are not easily explained as a noisy estimate of the same underlying effect. Ultimately, the outcome of this replication study reduces our confidence that cueing during sleep can reduce implicit bias.

Friday, January 25, 2019

Delivery of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur to the silicate Earth by a giant impact

Delivery of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur to the silicate Earth by a giant impact. Damanveer S. Grewal, Rajdeep Dasgupta, Chenguang Sun, Kyusei Tsuno and Gelu Costin. Science Advances Jan 23 2019:Vol. 5, no. 1, eaau3669, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3669

Abstract: Earth’s status as the only life-sustaining planet is a result of the timing and delivery mechanism of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), sulfur (S), and hydrogen (H). On the basis of their isotopic signatures, terrestrial volatiles are thought to have derived from carbonaceous chondrites, while the isotopic compositions of nonvolatile major and trace elements suggest that enstatite chondrite–like materials are the primary building blocks of Earth. However, the C/N ratio of the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) is superchondritic, which rules out volatile delivery by a chondritic late veneer. In addition, if delivered during the main phase of Earth’s accretion, then, owing to the greater siderophile (metal loving) nature of C relative to N, core formation should have left behind a subchondritic C/N ratio in the BSE. Here, we present high pressure-temperature experiments to constrain the fate of mixed C-N-S volatiles during core-mantle segregation in the planetary embryo magma oceans and show that C becomes much less siderophile in N-bearing and S-rich alloys, while the siderophile character of N remains largely unaffected in the presence of S. Using the new data and inverse Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the impact of a Mars-sized planet, having minimal contributions from carbonaceous chondrite-like material and coinciding with the Moon-forming event, can be the source of major volatiles in the BSE.

“Forward flow”: A new measure to quantify free thought and predict creativity

Gray, K., Anderson, S., Chen, E. E., Kelly, J. M., Christian, M. S., Patrick, J., . . . Lewis, K. (2019). “Forward flow”: A new measure to quantify free thought and predict creativity. American Psychologist, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/amp0000391

Abstract: When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined by two open questions: (a) How can streams of thought be quantified? (b) Do such streams predict psychological phenomena? We resolve the first issue—quantification—by presenting a new metric, “forward flow,” that uses latent semantic analysis to capture the semantic evolution of thoughts over time (i.e., how much present thoughts diverge from past thoughts). We resolve the second issue—prediction—by examining whether forward flow predicts creativity in the lab and the real world. Our studies reveal that forward flow predicts creativity in college students (Study 1) and a representative sample of Americans (Study 2), even when controlling for intelligence. Studies also reveal that membership in real-world creative groups—performance majors (Study 3), professional actors (Study 4) and entrepreneurs (Study 5)—is predicted by forward flow, even when controlling for performance on divergent thinking tasks. Study 6 reveals that forward flow in celebrities’ social media posts (i.e., on Twitter) predicts their creative achievement. In addition to creativity, forward flow may also help predict mental illness, emotional experience, leadership ability, adaptability, neural dynamics, group productivity, and cultural success. We present open-access online tools for assessing and visualizing forward flow for both illustrative and large-scale data analytic purposes.

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Forward Flow and Creativity
Both anecdotal and scientific evidence suggest a potential link between forward flow and creativity—in particular, divergent thinking.3 Anecdotally, creative people are often good at generating works that leave behind the past: Jackson Pollock moved beyond easels and brushes and Einstein moved beyond Newtonian mechanics. This “forward movement” appears in many artistic and scientific creative works as visionaries eschew tradition for originality. Indeed, Walt Disney’s recipe for creativity makes this connection explicit: “Around here… we don't look backwards for very long. We keep moving forward, opening up new doors and doing new things.” As thinking is for doing (Fiske, 1992), those who complete more “forward-moving” creative actions might also have more “forward-moving” thoughts.

Recent studies support the idea that creativity is related to individual differences in memory organization (Hass, 2017; Heinen & Johnson, 2017)—differences that allow more creative participants to connect ideas that are further apart in memory (Kenett, Anaki, & Faust, 2014). Most relevant to the current work, associative dynamics appear related to both creative performance and default network activity (Marron et al., 2018). However, one limitation of these studies is that they all assess task-bound thoughts, measuring cognitive processes while participants are engaged in creative tasks or are explicitly instructed to be creative. Although many real-world situations entail conscious efforts to be creative, here we examine whether features of unconstrained thought—free association without instructions to be creative—might also predict creativity across diverse settings and populations. Can forward flow predict divergent thinking and perhaps even the choices and outcomes related to people’s careers?

Importantly, we do not claim that forward flow is the “best” predictor or measure of creativity. Creativity is predicted by expertise (Baer & Kaufman, 2005), personality (Kaufman et al., 2016), attentional control (Beaty, Benedek, Silvia, & Schacter, 2016), one’s social network (Perry-Smith & Shalley, 2003), and the broader cultural milieu (Rudowicz, 2003). There are also many measures of creativity which predict creative performance. Nevertheless, revealing the predictive power of forward flow in creativity would both contribute to this important body of work and point to the general methodological utility of assessing streams of free thought.


Linear or Non-Linear? Forward Flow and Mental Illness
One important remaining question is whether the relationship between forward flow and creativity is linear. Some psychological disorders are characterized by disorganized thoughts (e.g., schizophrenia; Moritz, Woodward, Küppers, Lausen, & Schickel, 2003); and while such disorganization likely yields high forward flow, it may not yield high creativity—especially insofar as creativity requires usefulness in addition to originality (Runco & Jaeger, 2012). While there are robust correlations between mental illness and creativity (Kyaga et al., 2013), even our most creative samples—acting students and creative professionals—had a mean forward flow of ~.83, which is some distance from the theoretical maximum of 1.00. It may be that a completely disorganized stream of consciousness represented by extreme forward flow is tied to detriments in creative performance. If true, this suggests forward flow—at its upper bounds—might also be a useful indicator of some kinds of mental illness, consistent with recent work on atypicality in semantic memory structure (Faust & Kenett, 2014). Moreover, although we have suggested high forward flow helps creativity, it may hinder task performance when focus is required—e.g., for air traffic controllers or pilots (Kanfer & Ackerman, 1989).

Thursday, January 24, 2019

We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time

Public Debt Through the Ages. Barry J. Eichengreen,Asmaa A ElGanainy,Rui Pedro Esteves,Kris James Mitchener. IMF Working Paper No. 19/6, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/01/15/Public-Debt-Through-the-Ages-46503

Summary: We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.

Tradeoff between robustness and efficiency across species and brain regions can contribute to differential cognitive functions between species & to fragility underlying human psychopathologies

A Tradeoff in the Neural Code across Regions and Species. Raviv Pryluk et al. Cell, Volume 176, Issue 3, p597-609.e18, January 24, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.12.032

Highlights
    •    Human neurons utilize information capacity (efficiency) better than macaque neurons
    •    Cingulate cortex neurons are more efficient than amygdala neurons in both species
    •    Amygdala and monkey neurons show more synchrony and vocabulary overlap (robustness)
    •    There is a tradeoff between robustness and efficiency across species and regions

Summary: Many evolutionary years separate humans and macaques, and although the amygdala and cingulate cortex evolved to enable emotion and cognition in both, an evident functional gap exists. Although they were traditionally attributed to differential neuroanatomy, functional differences might also arise from coding mechanisms. Here we find that human neurons better utilize information capacity (efficient coding) than macaque neurons in both regions, and that cingulate neurons are more efficient than amygdala neurons in both species. In contrast, we find more overlap in the neural vocabulary and more synchronized activity (robustness coding) in monkeys in both regions and in the amygdala of both species. Our findings demonstrate a tradeoff between robustness and efficiency across species and regions. We suggest that this tradeoff can contribute to differential cognitive functions between species and underlie the complementary roles of the amygdala and the cingulate cortex. In turn, it can contribute to fragility underlying human psychopathologies.


Simplified: Pioneering brain study reveals ‘software’ differences between humans and monkeys. Alison Abbott. Nature 565, 410-411 (2019), https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00198-7

Neuroscientists tracked the activity of single neurons deep in the brain and suggest the findings could explain humans’ intelligence — and susceptibility to psychiatric disorders. 

Recent reports are conflicted about whether adult neurogenesis occurs in humans; discrepancies could arise from species differences in neurodevelopmental timing and differences in subject ages

Recalibrating the Relevance of Adult Neurogenesis. Jason S.Snyder. Trends in Neurosciences, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tins.2018.12.001

Highlights
  • Animal work has revealed that immature neurons born in the adult dentate gyrus have key cellular and behavioral functions.
  • Recent reports are conflicted about whether adult neurogenesis occurs in humans.
  • Discrepancies could arise from species differences in neurodevelopmental timing and differences in subject ages.
  • Regardless of its extent, postnatally, an extended period of neurogenesis may produce a heterogeneous population of dentate gyrus neurons, due to prolonged cellular maturation and differences in the stage of the lifespan when neurons are born.
  • These developments warrant a recalibration of when and how dentate gyrus neurogenesis contributes to cognition and mental health in humans.
Abstract: Conflicting reports about whether adult hippocampal neurogenesis occurs in humans raise questions about its significance for human health and the relevance of animal models. Drawing upon published data, I review species’ neurogenesis rates across the lifespan and propose that accelerated neurodevelopmental timing is consistent with lower rates of neurogenesis in adult primates and humans. Nonetheless, protracted neurogenesis may produce populations of neurons that retain plastic properties for long intervals, and have distinct functions depending on when in the lifespan they were born. With some conceptual recalibration we may therefore be able to reconcile seemingly disparate findings and continue to ask how adult neurogenesis, as studied in animals, is relevant for human health.

Promoting subjective well-being is not only desirable per se, but it is conducive to higher productivity and improved countries’ economic performances

Happiness Matters: Productivity Gains from Subjective Well-Being. Charles Henri DiMaria, Chiara Peroni, Francesco Sarracino. Journal of Happiness Studies, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-019-00074-1

Abstract: This article studies the link between subjective well-being and productivity at the aggregate level, using a matched dataset from surveys and official statistics. Well-being and productivity are measured, respectively, by life satisfaction and total factor productivity. The analysis, which applies non-parametric frontier techniques in a production framework, finds that life satisfaction generates significant productivity gains in a sample of 20 European countries. These results confirm the evidence of a positive association between the variables of interest found at the individual and firm level, and support the view that promoting subjective well-being is not only desirable per se, but it is conducive to higher productivity and improved countries’ economic performances.

Keywords: Productivity Subjective well-being Total factor productivity Efficiency Life satisfaction Economic growth DEA Combined data

The Bitter Pill: Cessation of Oral Contraceptives Enhances the Appeal of Alternative Mates

The Bitter Pill: Cessation of Oral Contraceptives Enhances the Appeal of Alternative Mates. Gurit E. Birnbaum, Kobi Zholtack, Moran Mizrahi, Tsachi Ein-Dor. Evolutionary Psychological Science, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40806-018-00186-6

Abstract: Hormonal contraceptives change women’s natural mate preferences, leading them to prefer nurturing but less genetically compatible men. Cessation of contraceptives reverses these preferences, decreasing women’s attraction to current partners. Two studies examined whether women who had used contraceptive pills at relationship formation and stopped doing so were more vulnerable to desire attractive alternatives, primarily around ovulation, as compared to women who had not used pills at relationship formation or had used pills then but did not stop using them. In Study 1, participants watched videos of attractive and average-looking men and described imaginary dates with them, which were coded for desire expressions. In Study 2, we measured attention adhesion to attractive and average-looking men. Results showed that women who stopped using pills and were currently in high-fertility phase were especially likely to attend to, and express desire for, attractive alternatives, suggesting that cessation of contraceptives motivates the pursuit of more suitable mates.

Keywords: Attractive alternatives Contraceptive pills Infidelity Mate choice Menstrual cycle


Allow Fracking To Avoid An Energy Crisis: Nuclear is not being modernized & tankers/pipelines will fail some day and the uproar will left us with no spare capacity


We Need To Allow Fracking To Avoid An Energy Crisis. Stephen Glover, Daily Mail, January 24 2019. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6625661/STEPHEN-GLOVER-need-allow-fracking-avoid-energy-crisis.html
We have an energy crisis. And it so happens that we appear to have lots of shale gas. A whole new industry could be created if only the Luddites would see sense.


Almost everyone I know is against fracking. Not that many of them understand much about it. But this doesn’t prevent them from pursing their lips and shaking their heads while looking solemn and generally disapproving whenever the subject is raised.

What about the United States, I sometimes ask, where fracking on a massive scale has made the country much less reliant on expensive imports of oil and gas? America has vast unpopulated areas, they reply. Britain is a crowded island. They may then add that fracking — which involves extracting gas from underground rocks by injecting high-pressure chemicals — causes earthquakes and ruins the countryside.

It is because of views like these that fracking in the UK has barely got going despite there being enormous reserves of potentially recoverable shale gas, which if extracted would greatly improve our chances of keeping the lights on and the wheels of the economy turning.

Labour is against fracking. As are the Lib Dems. So is the SNP government in Scotland, which has banned all exploration north of the border. Opinion polls suggest a majority of the public is against. And of course every environmentalist you care to mention thinks fracking is the work of the Devil.

As for the Conservative Government, although supposedly pro-fracking, it proceeds cautiously, and seldom defends the practice. I can’t recall the underwhelming Greg Clark, Business Secretary and the Minister with overall responsibility, ever singing its praises.

The Government’s greatest terror is that the process might cause earthquakes. In 2011, shale gas test-drilling triggered tremors in Lancashire, and fracking was banned for a time.

So it’s no surprise that Mr Clark’s department is apparently ignoring the conclusion of two advisers in the government’s Oil and Gas Authority that the existing low limit on tremors caused by fracking be raised because the risk of harm is ‘vanishingly small’.

All in all, it is hard to find anyone in public life who will speak up for fracking, excepting Natascha Engel, the former Labour MP for North East Derbyshire, who was appointed Commissioner for Shale Gas last autumn by the Government. She recently told the Mail that fracking, if safely and sensibly pursued, could create tens of thousands of jobs, and provide Britain’s energy needs for 50 years.

[...].

It’s a roaring shame we can’t have a reasoned debate. Consider this: on Tuesday, which was unpleasantly cold, the National Grid could supply enough power only by relying on energy produced by the coal-fired power stations that environmentalists hate (13 per cent of the total) and on imported electricity from France and Holland (five per cent).

Because there was very little wind on Tuesday, less than three per cent of our energy was supplied by off-shore and on-shore turbines. That’s the trouble with wind power. When demand is high, as it is bound to be in cold weather, all the wind turbines in the world won’t help if there isn’t even a gentle breeze.

Isn’t it a bit alarming that in a country of around 65 million people, which is the fifth or sixth biggest economy in the world, the National Grid can only keep the show on the road by cranking up coal power stations and depending on imported electricity?

It wouldn’t take much to go wrong — a ruptured pipeline carrying gas from Norway or Europe, or a tanker carrying the stuff to our shores running aground — for us to discover there isn’t any spare capacity in the system, and for everything to go kaput.

Looking to the future, plenty of people believe the danger of shortages is likely to increase. Britain’s coal-fired power plants will all be shut down by the mid-2020s. Several have already been closed under EU anti-pollution rules.
 
Meanwhile, the country’s ageing nuclear power stations, which provide 21 per cent of current power supplies, are expected to be de-commissioned by the 2030s. But the replacement programme has been severely dented
by the recent decision of two Japanese companies to pull out of building two nuclear power stations with state-of-the-art reactors in Cumbria and on Anglesey.

With the £20 billion Chinese-financed Hinkley Point now the only new nuclear reactor being built, it seems possible, if not probable, that, in 15 years’ time, nuclear power stations will supply a smaller proportion of our energy needs than they do at present.

In short, as coal-fired power stations are certain to be cashiered, and nuclear power seems likely to be curtailed, there is a looming energy gap which new off-shore turbines can’t be guaranteed to fill because the wind does not always blow.

Nor would it be sensible to make up the impending shortfall by importing more gas from Russia. It would be foolhardy to put ourselves at the mercy of a hostile regime. That is the perilous path down which Germany has recklessly gone — 20 per cent of its energy needs are supplied by Moscow — and we would be mad to follow suit.

How easy it is for virtue-signalling or ignorant politicians to condemn fracking without giving any thought to the consequences in ten or 20 years’ time, or indeed for the thousands of new jobs, often in depressed areas of northern England, which it might create. […]

If we still had vast reserves of oil and gas in the North Sea, this weakness and indecision on the part of the authorities might not matter. But we don’t. We have an energy crisis. And it so happens that we appear to have lots of shale gas.

Rolf Degen summarizing: Default manipulations, the magic bullets of the "Nudge" approach for improving decision making, work the least well when individuals care deeply about the choice

When and why defaults influence decisions: a meta-analysis of default effects. Jon M Jachimowicz et al. Behavioural Public Policy, https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2018.43

Abstract: When people make decisions with a pre-selected choice option – a ‘default’ – they are more likely to select that option. Because defaults are easy to implement, they constitute one of the most widely employed tools in the choice architecture toolbox. However, to decide when defaults should be used instead of other choice architecture tools, policy-makers must know how effective defaults are and when and why their effectiveness varies. To answer these questions, we conduct a literature search and meta-analysis of the 58 default studies (pooled n = 73,675) that fit our criteria. While our analysis reveals a considerable influence of defaults (d = 0.68, 95% confidence interval = 0.53–0.83), we also discover substantial variation: the majority of default studies find positive effects, but several do not find a significant effect, and two even demonstrate negative effects. To explain this variability, we draw on existing theoretical frameworks to examine the drivers of disparity in effectiveness. Our analysis reveals two factors that partially account for the variability in defaults’ effectiveness. First, we find that defaults in consumer domains are more effective and in environmental domains are less effective. Second, we find that defaults are more effective when they operate through endorsement (defaults that are seen as conveying what the choice architect thinks the decision-maker should do) or endowment (defaults that are seen as reflecting the status quo). We end with a discussion of possible directions for a future research program on defaults, including potential additional moderators, and implications for policy-makers interested in the implementation and evaluation of defaults.