Ideological (A)symmetries in prejudice and intergroup bias, Jarret T Crawford, Mark J Brandt. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, Volume 34, August 2020, Pages 40-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2019.11.007
Highlights
• The traditional perspective on the ideology-prejudice relationship suggests that conservatism and associated traits (e.g. low cognitive ability, low openness) are associated with prejudice.
• The worldview conflict perspective challenges the traditional perspective by testing prejudice against a more heterogeneous array of target groups.
• Research from the worldview conflict perspective shows that both liberals and conservatives (as well as those low and high in several associated traits) are prejudiced against dissimilar groups.
• There are obvious ways, in which these perspectives differ, but also some common ground (e.g. presumption of some underlying psychological differences between liberals and conservatives).
• This still leaves open questions related to the robustness of underlying assumptions, differences between elites and the public, precise causal processes, and worldview conflict reduction.
Abstract: The traditional perspective on the political ideology and prejudice relationship holds that political conservatism is associated with prejudice, and that the types of dispositional characteristics associated with conservatism (e.g. low cognitive ability, low Openness) explain this relationship. This conclusion is limited by the limited number and types of groups studied. When researchers use a more heterogeneous array of targets, people across the political spectrum express prejudice against groups with dissimilar values and beliefs. Evidence for this worldview conflict perspective emerges in both politics and religion, as well as individual differences such as Openness, disgust sensitivity and cognitive ability. Although these two perspectives differ substantially, there is some identifiable common ground between them, particularly the assumption of some psychological differences between liberals and conservatives. We discuss some remaining open questions related to worldview conflict reduction, causal processes, the robustness of the assumptions of the traditional perspective, and differences between political elites and the public.
Monday, December 16, 2019
‘Good genes’ is the default explanation for the evolution of elaborate ornaments, despite abundant evidence that the most attractive mates are seldom those that produce the most viable offspring
It’s Not about Him: Mismeasuring ‘Good Genes’ in Sexual Selection. Angela M. Achorn, Gil G. Rosenthal. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, December 16 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.11.007
Highlights
. ‘Good genes’ remains the default explanation for the evolution of elaborate ornaments, despite abundant evidence that the most attractive mates are seldom those that produce the most viable offspring.
. ‘Good genes’, in which preferred traits predict offspring viability, is often conflated with other indirect benefits, including genetic compatibility, heterozygosity, and offspring attractiveness.
. Few studies in fact test the key predictions of ‘good genes’ models and, as predicted by theory, they show scant evidence for additive effects of mating decisions on offspring viability.
. Direct tests of indirect genetic benefits should measure the attractiveness and viability of offspring from a large number of matings, distinguish between additive and nonadditive benefits, and control for differential investment in offspring.
Abstract: What explains preferences for elaborate ornamentation in animals? The default answer remains that the prettiest males have the best genes. If mating signals predict good genes, mating preferences evolve because attractive mates yield additive genetic benefits through offspring viability, thereby maximizing chooser fitness. Across disciplines, studies claim ‘good genes’ without measuring mating preferences, measuring offspring viability, distinguishing between additive and nonadditive benefits, or controlling for manipulation of chooser investment. Crucially, studies continue to assert benefits to choosers purely based on signal costs to signalers. A focus on fitness outcomes for choosers suggests that ‘good genes’ are insufficient to explain the evolution of mate choice or of sexual ornamentation.
Keywords: genetic qualitymate choiceindirect benefitsgenetic benefits
Reevaluating the Evidence: ‘Good Genes’ in Context
The question of whether sexual selection is good or bad for choosers and populations is a central one in evolutionary biology, animal communication, and conservation biology. By focusing on signals and signal costs, studies often fail to test the basic premise that ornaments are the target of mate choice [46], let alone that they confer any benefits on choosers.
When studies do test for ‘good genes’, evidence suggests that this process accounts for a modest fraction of variance in sexual fitness [2,6,13]. A recent meta-analysis [6] showed that attractiveness was highly heritable, consistent with FLK models, but good genes received mixed support. Attractiveness did not correlate with traits directly associated with fitness (life-history traits). However, attractiveness did positively correlate with physiological traits, such as immunocompetence and condition.
Similarly, recent studies provide at best mixed support for the intuition that the prettiest males have the best genes, although perhaps the most tenacious males do. The clearest evidence for good genes (Table 1) has found them for traits where choosers have limited agency to make mating decisions. Persistent courtship or mating is likely to increase courter success no matter how choosers behave before mating [47], and frequently impose direct costs on females [48]. The one study that controlled for differential allocation [38] yielded equivocal results. There is widespread evidence that choosers invest more in the offspring of attractive males, but more-ornamented courters may manipulate choosers into investing in a mating beyond the lifetime fitness optima of the choosers.
For conspicuous display traits, weak signals of good genes should be the rule. A seeming paradox of good genes models is that preferences for good genes are most likely to be maintained if genetic effects on viability are weak, since this slows the depletion of genetic variation by selection [49]. ‘Good genes’ are likely to be less important to preference evolution than self-reinforcing coevolution channeled by mating biases [13] and direct selection on mating decisions [13,14] (see Outstanding Questions).
More rigorous measures of ‘good genes’ speak to another central question, namely whether sexual selection is more likely to confer a positive or negative effect on population mean fitness [50]. On the one hand, populations can benefit from accelerated purifying selection through sexual selection on the courting sex, meaning that sexual selection can increase population fitness if there is a positive correlation between preference and fitness. On the other hand, sexual selection can decrease population fitness through reduced viability as a consequence of sexual conflict.
The answer likely depends on the nature of selection experienced by populations. When competing males are parasitized, sexually successful male fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) sire more parasite-resistant offspring, while the opposite holds true for winners of contests between unparasitized males [24] (Table 1). Along these lines, a recent meta-analysis [50] used 459 effect sizes from 65 experimental studies in which researchers manipulated the presence or strength of sexual selection, encompassing both intrasexual selection and mate choice, and then measured some aspect of fitness. The results indicate that sexual selection tends to increase population fitness, particularly when populations are exposed to novel environmental conditions.
However, in contrast to Prokop and colleagues’ meta-analysis [6], fitness traits related to immunocompetence were an exception: sexual selection covaried with weaker immunity.
Concluding Remarks
Few studies evaluate the critical predictions of benefit models of mate choice. Those that do suggest that good genes have an important role in adapting to novel environments, but that they may be more important in terms of glimpses we have suggests that good genes provide an important, if circumscribed, contribution to chooser fitness.
We can begin to tease apart the selective forces shaping mating preferences, but tests of good genes hypotheses must assess meaningful measures of offspring viability. Assessing offspring viability is conceptually straightforward, if not always easy in wild populations. This can be done by using molecular markers to reconstruct pedigrees and correlating preferred trait expression with survivorship to maturity [36], or by examining proxy measures of viability, such as juvenile growth rate or size [39]. This approach does not rule out the possibility of differential allocation. If choosers invest more in the offspring of attractive partners even at the expense of their own lifetime reproductive success, then mates may not be providing a net increase in average offspring viability [51,52]. Artificial insemination or, in externally fertilizing species, in vitro assays [8] can control for differential allocation.
A counterintuitive point about ‘good genes’ and ‘genetic quality’ is that, by definition, they are difficult, if not impossible, to infer from courter genotypic data alone. Notably, a gene favored by selection (e.g., a gene that buffers oxidative stress and helps produce attractive offspring) can carry a higher genetic load with respect to other components of viability [53,54]. An allele that is ‘good’ with respect to courter function may be in linkage disequilibrium with alleles that reduce (or increase) offspring viability. Again, direct measures of fitness are required to measure ‘good genes’. A major challenge to testing for good genes is that these effects are predicted to be weak [6,55] and, therefore, require large sample sizes. For large, long-lived animals with small populations (e.g., nonhuman primates), longitudinal samples across generations provide a feasible, if slow, approach to detecting viability consequences of mate choice. Simply measuring correlations between ornament elaboration and other courter phenotypes does not distinguish among models of signal evolution through mate choice.
‘Good genes’ is appealing because it assigns utilitarian explanations to seemingly extravagant traits and the desires that shape them. There is allure to the idea that mating preferences can increase population mean fitness and local adaptation. A loose construction of ‘good genes’ and ‘genetic quality’ remains the default explanation for mating preferences and sexual dimorphisms outside the immediate field of sexual selection and in the popular literature. We suggest that the persistence of this default view comes from a sloppy conception of these terms that leads to insufficient empirical tests of adaptive hypotheses.
Unfortunately, ‘good genes’ especially lends itself to what Bateson [56], writing about the term ‘mate selection,’ termed ‘unconscious punning’. The term conjures up so much more than ‘breeding value for viability.’ There is a precise technical term, coined by Galton in 1883 [57], which means ‘good genes’ or ‘true genes’ in Greek. Eugenics is tainted forever by the policies it incited, but we remain entranced by the intuition that Beauty marches in lockstep with Truth. Thus, evidence for ‘good genes’ and ‘genetic quality’ in the vernacular sense, is conflated with support for precise evolutionary models. We would hesitate to study the foraging ecology of koalas exclusively by grinding up eucalyptus leaves, but this is all too often the logic we invoke to study mate choice [46]. A perspective centered on choosers, rather than on the signatures that their choices leave on courters, is essential for understanding mate choice and its consequences.
Highlights
. ‘Good genes’ remains the default explanation for the evolution of elaborate ornaments, despite abundant evidence that the most attractive mates are seldom those that produce the most viable offspring.
. ‘Good genes’, in which preferred traits predict offspring viability, is often conflated with other indirect benefits, including genetic compatibility, heterozygosity, and offspring attractiveness.
. Few studies in fact test the key predictions of ‘good genes’ models and, as predicted by theory, they show scant evidence for additive effects of mating decisions on offspring viability.
. Direct tests of indirect genetic benefits should measure the attractiveness and viability of offspring from a large number of matings, distinguish between additive and nonadditive benefits, and control for differential investment in offspring.
Abstract: What explains preferences for elaborate ornamentation in animals? The default answer remains that the prettiest males have the best genes. If mating signals predict good genes, mating preferences evolve because attractive mates yield additive genetic benefits through offspring viability, thereby maximizing chooser fitness. Across disciplines, studies claim ‘good genes’ without measuring mating preferences, measuring offspring viability, distinguishing between additive and nonadditive benefits, or controlling for manipulation of chooser investment. Crucially, studies continue to assert benefits to choosers purely based on signal costs to signalers. A focus on fitness outcomes for choosers suggests that ‘good genes’ are insufficient to explain the evolution of mate choice or of sexual ornamentation.
Keywords: genetic qualitymate choiceindirect benefitsgenetic benefits
Reevaluating the Evidence: ‘Good Genes’ in Context
The question of whether sexual selection is good or bad for choosers and populations is a central one in evolutionary biology, animal communication, and conservation biology. By focusing on signals and signal costs, studies often fail to test the basic premise that ornaments are the target of mate choice [46], let alone that they confer any benefits on choosers.
When studies do test for ‘good genes’, evidence suggests that this process accounts for a modest fraction of variance in sexual fitness [2,6,13]. A recent meta-analysis [6] showed that attractiveness was highly heritable, consistent with FLK models, but good genes received mixed support. Attractiveness did not correlate with traits directly associated with fitness (life-history traits). However, attractiveness did positively correlate with physiological traits, such as immunocompetence and condition.
Similarly, recent studies provide at best mixed support for the intuition that the prettiest males have the best genes, although perhaps the most tenacious males do. The clearest evidence for good genes (Table 1) has found them for traits where choosers have limited agency to make mating decisions. Persistent courtship or mating is likely to increase courter success no matter how choosers behave before mating [47], and frequently impose direct costs on females [48]. The one study that controlled for differential allocation [38] yielded equivocal results. There is widespread evidence that choosers invest more in the offspring of attractive males, but more-ornamented courters may manipulate choosers into investing in a mating beyond the lifetime fitness optima of the choosers.
For conspicuous display traits, weak signals of good genes should be the rule. A seeming paradox of good genes models is that preferences for good genes are most likely to be maintained if genetic effects on viability are weak, since this slows the depletion of genetic variation by selection [49]. ‘Good genes’ are likely to be less important to preference evolution than self-reinforcing coevolution channeled by mating biases [13] and direct selection on mating decisions [13,14] (see Outstanding Questions).
More rigorous measures of ‘good genes’ speak to another central question, namely whether sexual selection is more likely to confer a positive or negative effect on population mean fitness [50]. On the one hand, populations can benefit from accelerated purifying selection through sexual selection on the courting sex, meaning that sexual selection can increase population fitness if there is a positive correlation between preference and fitness. On the other hand, sexual selection can decrease population fitness through reduced viability as a consequence of sexual conflict.
The answer likely depends on the nature of selection experienced by populations. When competing males are parasitized, sexually successful male fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) sire more parasite-resistant offspring, while the opposite holds true for winners of contests between unparasitized males [24] (Table 1). Along these lines, a recent meta-analysis [50] used 459 effect sizes from 65 experimental studies in which researchers manipulated the presence or strength of sexual selection, encompassing both intrasexual selection and mate choice, and then measured some aspect of fitness. The results indicate that sexual selection tends to increase population fitness, particularly when populations are exposed to novel environmental conditions.
However, in contrast to Prokop and colleagues’ meta-analysis [6], fitness traits related to immunocompetence were an exception: sexual selection covaried with weaker immunity.
Concluding Remarks
Few studies evaluate the critical predictions of benefit models of mate choice. Those that do suggest that good genes have an important role in adapting to novel environments, but that they may be more important in terms of glimpses we have suggests that good genes provide an important, if circumscribed, contribution to chooser fitness.
We can begin to tease apart the selective forces shaping mating preferences, but tests of good genes hypotheses must assess meaningful measures of offspring viability. Assessing offspring viability is conceptually straightforward, if not always easy in wild populations. This can be done by using molecular markers to reconstruct pedigrees and correlating preferred trait expression with survivorship to maturity [36], or by examining proxy measures of viability, such as juvenile growth rate or size [39]. This approach does not rule out the possibility of differential allocation. If choosers invest more in the offspring of attractive partners even at the expense of their own lifetime reproductive success, then mates may not be providing a net increase in average offspring viability [51,52]. Artificial insemination or, in externally fertilizing species, in vitro assays [8] can control for differential allocation.
A counterintuitive point about ‘good genes’ and ‘genetic quality’ is that, by definition, they are difficult, if not impossible, to infer from courter genotypic data alone. Notably, a gene favored by selection (e.g., a gene that buffers oxidative stress and helps produce attractive offspring) can carry a higher genetic load with respect to other components of viability [53,54]. An allele that is ‘good’ with respect to courter function may be in linkage disequilibrium with alleles that reduce (or increase) offspring viability. Again, direct measures of fitness are required to measure ‘good genes’. A major challenge to testing for good genes is that these effects are predicted to be weak [6,55] and, therefore, require large sample sizes. For large, long-lived animals with small populations (e.g., nonhuman primates), longitudinal samples across generations provide a feasible, if slow, approach to detecting viability consequences of mate choice. Simply measuring correlations between ornament elaboration and other courter phenotypes does not distinguish among models of signal evolution through mate choice.
‘Good genes’ is appealing because it assigns utilitarian explanations to seemingly extravagant traits and the desires that shape them. There is allure to the idea that mating preferences can increase population mean fitness and local adaptation. A loose construction of ‘good genes’ and ‘genetic quality’ remains the default explanation for mating preferences and sexual dimorphisms outside the immediate field of sexual selection and in the popular literature. We suggest that the persistence of this default view comes from a sloppy conception of these terms that leads to insufficient empirical tests of adaptive hypotheses.
Unfortunately, ‘good genes’ especially lends itself to what Bateson [56], writing about the term ‘mate selection,’ termed ‘unconscious punning’. The term conjures up so much more than ‘breeding value for viability.’ There is a precise technical term, coined by Galton in 1883 [57], which means ‘good genes’ or ‘true genes’ in Greek. Eugenics is tainted forever by the policies it incited, but we remain entranced by the intuition that Beauty marches in lockstep with Truth. Thus, evidence for ‘good genes’ and ‘genetic quality’ in the vernacular sense, is conflated with support for precise evolutionary models. We would hesitate to study the foraging ecology of koalas exclusively by grinding up eucalyptus leaves, but this is all too often the logic we invoke to study mate choice [46]. A perspective centered on choosers, rather than on the signatures that their choices leave on courters, is essential for understanding mate choice and its consequences.
The harsher grading policies in STEM courses disproportionately affect women; restrictions on grading policies that equalize average grades across classes helps to close the STEM gender gap as well as increasing overall enrollment
Equilibrium Grade Inflation with Implications for Female Interest in STEM Majors. Thomas Ahn, Peter Arcidiacono, Amy Hopson, James R. Thomas. NBER Working Paper No. 26556. December 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26556
Abstract: Substantial earnings differences exist across majors with the majors that pay well also having lower grades and higher workloads. We show that the harsher grading policies in STEM courses disproportionately affect women. To show this, we estimate a model of student demand courses and optimal effort choices of students conditional on the chosen courses. Instructor grading policies are treated as equilibrium objects that in part depend on student demand for courses. Restrictions on grading policies that equalize average grades across classes helps to close the STEM gender gap as well as increasing overall enrollment in STEM classes.
5.3 Grade estimates
The estimated αs, the department-specific ability weights, are given in Table 6. These are calculated by taking the reduced-form θs, undoing the normalization on the γs, and subtracting off the part of the reduced form that θs that reflect the study time (taken from ψ). The departments are sorted such that those with the lowest female estimate are listed first. Note that in all departments the female estimate is negative. This occurs because females study substantially more than males yet receive only slightly higher grades. Given that sorting into universities takes place on both cognitive and non-cognitive skills and that women have a comparative advantage in non-cognitive skills, males at UK have higher cognitive skills than their female counterpart even though in the population cognitive skills are similar between men and women. Negative estimates are also found for Hispanics. While Hispanics have higher grades than African Americans, our estimates of the study costs suggested that they also studied substantially more. Given the very high estimate of Hispanic study time we would have expected Hispanics to perform even better in the classroom than they actually did if their baseline abilities were similar to African Americans. With the estimates of the grading equation, we can reported expected grades for an average student. We do this for freshmen, separately by gender, both unconditionally and conditional on taking courses in that department in the semester we study. Results are presented in Table 7. Three patterns stand out. First, there is positive selection into STEM courses: generally those who take STEM classes are expected to perform better than the average student. This is the not the case for many departments. Indeed, the second pattern is that negative selection is more likely to occur in departments with higher grades. Finally, women are disproportionately represented in departments that give higher grades for the average student. Of the seven departments that give the highest grades for the average student (female or male), all have a larger fraction female than the overall population. In contrast, of the five departments that give the lowest grades (STEM and Economics), females are under-represented relative to the overall population in all but one (Biology).
Abstract: Substantial earnings differences exist across majors with the majors that pay well also having lower grades and higher workloads. We show that the harsher grading policies in STEM courses disproportionately affect women. To show this, we estimate a model of student demand courses and optimal effort choices of students conditional on the chosen courses. Instructor grading policies are treated as equilibrium objects that in part depend on student demand for courses. Restrictions on grading policies that equalize average grades across classes helps to close the STEM gender gap as well as increasing overall enrollment in STEM classes.
5.3 Grade estimates
The estimated αs, the department-specific ability weights, are given in Table 6. These are calculated by taking the reduced-form θs, undoing the normalization on the γs, and subtracting off the part of the reduced form that θs that reflect the study time (taken from ψ). The departments are sorted such that those with the lowest female estimate are listed first. Note that in all departments the female estimate is negative. This occurs because females study substantially more than males yet receive only slightly higher grades. Given that sorting into universities takes place on both cognitive and non-cognitive skills and that women have a comparative advantage in non-cognitive skills, males at UK have higher cognitive skills than their female counterpart even though in the population cognitive skills are similar between men and women. Negative estimates are also found for Hispanics. While Hispanics have higher grades than African Americans, our estimates of the study costs suggested that they also studied substantially more. Given the very high estimate of Hispanic study time we would have expected Hispanics to perform even better in the classroom than they actually did if their baseline abilities were similar to African Americans. With the estimates of the grading equation, we can reported expected grades for an average student. We do this for freshmen, separately by gender, both unconditionally and conditional on taking courses in that department in the semester we study. Results are presented in Table 7. Three patterns stand out. First, there is positive selection into STEM courses: generally those who take STEM classes are expected to perform better than the average student. This is the not the case for many departments. Indeed, the second pattern is that negative selection is more likely to occur in departments with higher grades. Finally, women are disproportionately represented in departments that give higher grades for the average student. Of the seven departments that give the highest grades for the average student (female or male), all have a larger fraction female than the overall population. In contrast, of the five departments that give the lowest grades (STEM and Economics), females are under-represented relative to the overall population in all but one (Biology).
Wealth Taxation in the United States: The effect of the Swiss tax and Warren tax on wealth inequality is miniscule, lowering the Gini coefficient by at most 0.0005 Gini points
Wealth Taxation in the United States. Edward N. Wolff. NBER Working
Paper No. 26544. December 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26544
Abstract: The paper analyzes the fiscal effects of a Swiss-type tax on household wealth, with a $120,000 exemption and marginal tax rates running from 0.05 to 0.3 percent on $2,400,000 or more of wealth. It also considers a wealth tax proposed by Senator Elizabeth Warren with a $50,000,000 exemption, a two percent tax on wealth above that and a one percent surcharge on wealth above $1,000,000,000. Based on the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances, the Swiss tax would yield $189.3 billion and the Warren tax $303.4 billion. Only 0.07 percent of households would pay the Warren tax, compared to 44.3 percent for the Swiss tax. The Swiss tax would have a very small effect on income inequality, lowering the post-tax Gini coefficient by 0.004 Gini points. The effect of the Swiss tax and Warren tax on wealth inequality is miniscule, lowering the Gini coefficient by at most 0.0005 Gini points.
Abstract: The paper analyzes the fiscal effects of a Swiss-type tax on household wealth, with a $120,000 exemption and marginal tax rates running from 0.05 to 0.3 percent on $2,400,000 or more of wealth. It also considers a wealth tax proposed by Senator Elizabeth Warren with a $50,000,000 exemption, a two percent tax on wealth above that and a one percent surcharge on wealth above $1,000,000,000. Based on the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances, the Swiss tax would yield $189.3 billion and the Warren tax $303.4 billion. Only 0.07 percent of households would pay the Warren tax, compared to 44.3 percent for the Swiss tax. The Swiss tax would have a very small effect on income inequality, lowering the post-tax Gini coefficient by 0.004 Gini points. The effect of the Swiss tax and Warren tax on wealth inequality is miniscule, lowering the Gini coefficient by at most 0.0005 Gini points.
The (In)accuracy of Forecast Revisions in a Football Score Prediction Game: Better go with your gut instinct
Going with your Gut: The (In)accuracy of Forecast Revisions in a Football Score Prediction Game. Carl Singleton, James Reade, Alasdair Brown. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, December 16 2019, 101502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.101502
Highlights
• Judgement revisions led to worse performance in a football score prediction game
• This is robust to the average forecasting ability of individuals playing the game
• Revisions to the forecast number of goals scored in matches are generally excessive
Abstract: This paper studies 150 individuals who each chose to forecast the outcome of 380 fixed events, namely all football matches during the 2017/18 season of the English Premier League. The focus is on whether revisions to these forecasts before the matches began improved the likelihood of predicting correct scorelines and results. Against what theory might expect, we show how these revisions tended towards significantly worse forecasting performance, suggesting that individuals should have stuck with their initial judgements, or their ‘gut instincts’. This result is robust to both differences in the average forecasting ability of individuals and the predictability of matches. We find evidence this is because revisions to the forecast number of goals scored in football matches are generally excessive, especially when these forecasts were increased rather than decreased.
6 Summary and further discussion
In this paper, we have analysed the forecasting performance of individuals who each applied
their judgement to predict the outcomes of many fixed events. The context of this analysis was
the scoreline outcomes of professional football matches. We found that when individuals made
revisions their likelihood of predicting a correct scoreline, which they achieved around 9% of
the time when never making a revision, significantly decreased. The same applied for forecast
revisions to the result outcomes of matches. Not only were these findings robust to unobserved
individual forecasting ability and the predictability of events, but also there is evidence that
performance would have improved had initial judgements been followed.
As already mentioned, these results have some similarities with those found previously in
the behavioural forecasting literature. One explanation could be that game players anchor their
beliefs, expectations and, consequently, their forecasts on past or initial values. However, this
behaviour would not be consistent with our finding that on average forecasters made revisions
which not only improved on their goals scored forecast errors but which were also excessive.
There are several areas for further research, which could be explored with extensions of
the dataset used here. First, it appears to be a relatively open question as to how sources of
bias among sports forecasters interact with how they make revisions, such as the well-known
favourite-longshot bias. Second, players of the forecasting game studied here do reveal which EPL
team they have the greatest affinity for, though we are yet to observe this information ourselves. It
is an interesting question as to whether any wishful-thinking by the players manifests itself more
greatly before or after they revise their forecasts. Third, an aspect which could be studied from
these current data is whether players improve their forecasts over time, and if they learn how to
play more to the rules of the game itself, which should lead them to favour more conservative goals
forecasts. Fourth, these results concern a selective random sample of players who “completed”
the game. These are likely to be individuals who extract significant utility from making forecasts
of football match scorelines, who are thus more likely to return to their initial forecasts and make
revisions. It would be interesting whether more casual forecasters are better at sticking with their
gut instincts or better off from doing so. Finally, our results suggested an innovation to the game
which could improve the crowd’s forecasting accuracy and which could be easily tested: before
making forecasts, some of the game players could be informed that sticking with their initial
judgement, or gut instinct, is likely to improve their chances of picking a correct score.
Highlights
• Judgement revisions led to worse performance in a football score prediction game
• This is robust to the average forecasting ability of individuals playing the game
• Revisions to the forecast number of goals scored in matches are generally excessive
Abstract: This paper studies 150 individuals who each chose to forecast the outcome of 380 fixed events, namely all football matches during the 2017/18 season of the English Premier League. The focus is on whether revisions to these forecasts before the matches began improved the likelihood of predicting correct scorelines and results. Against what theory might expect, we show how these revisions tended towards significantly worse forecasting performance, suggesting that individuals should have stuck with their initial judgements, or their ‘gut instincts’. This result is robust to both differences in the average forecasting ability of individuals and the predictability of matches. We find evidence this is because revisions to the forecast number of goals scored in football matches are generally excessive, especially when these forecasts were increased rather than decreased.
6 Summary and further discussion
In this paper, we have analysed the forecasting performance of individuals who each applied
their judgement to predict the outcomes of many fixed events. The context of this analysis was
the scoreline outcomes of professional football matches. We found that when individuals made
revisions their likelihood of predicting a correct scoreline, which they achieved around 9% of
the time when never making a revision, significantly decreased. The same applied for forecast
revisions to the result outcomes of matches. Not only were these findings robust to unobserved
individual forecasting ability and the predictability of events, but also there is evidence that
performance would have improved had initial judgements been followed.
As already mentioned, these results have some similarities with those found previously in
the behavioural forecasting literature. One explanation could be that game players anchor their
beliefs, expectations and, consequently, their forecasts on past or initial values. However, this
behaviour would not be consistent with our finding that on average forecasters made revisions
which not only improved on their goals scored forecast errors but which were also excessive.
There are several areas for further research, which could be explored with extensions of
the dataset used here. First, it appears to be a relatively open question as to how sources of
bias among sports forecasters interact with how they make revisions, such as the well-known
favourite-longshot bias. Second, players of the forecasting game studied here do reveal which EPL
team they have the greatest affinity for, though we are yet to observe this information ourselves. It
is an interesting question as to whether any wishful-thinking by the players manifests itself more
greatly before or after they revise their forecasts. Third, an aspect which could be studied from
these current data is whether players improve their forecasts over time, and if they learn how to
play more to the rules of the game itself, which should lead them to favour more conservative goals
forecasts. Fourth, these results concern a selective random sample of players who “completed”
the game. These are likely to be individuals who extract significant utility from making forecasts
of football match scorelines, who are thus more likely to return to their initial forecasts and make
revisions. It would be interesting whether more casual forecasters are better at sticking with their
gut instincts or better off from doing so. Finally, our results suggested an innovation to the game
which could improve the crowd’s forecasting accuracy and which could be easily tested: before
making forecasts, some of the game players could be informed that sticking with their initial
judgement, or gut instinct, is likely to improve their chances of picking a correct score.
Replication of the "Asch Effect" in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Evidence for the Moderating Role of Group Similarity in Conformity
Replication of the "Asch Effect" in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Evidence for the Moderating Role of Group Similarity in Conformity. Muamer Ušto, Saša Drače, Nina Hadžiahmetović. Psychological Topics , Vol 28, No 3 (2019). www.pt.ffri.hr/index.php/pt/article/view/507
Abstract: In the present study, we tried to replicate a classic Asch effect in the cultural context of BosniaHerzegovina and to explore the potential impact of group similarity on conformity. To answer these questions Bosniak (Muslim) students (N = 95) performed classic Asch's line judgment task in the presence of five confederates (the majority) who were ostensibly either of a similar ethnic origin (ingroup), different ethnic origin (out-group) or no salient ethnic origin. The task involved choosing one of three comparison lines that was equal in length to a test line. Each participant went through 18 test trials including 12 critical trials in which confederates provided an obviously wrong answer. In line with past research, the results revealed a clear-cut and powerful "Asch effect" wherein participants followed the majority in 35.4% of critical trials. More importantly, this effect was moderated by group similarity. Thus, in comparison to no salient group identity condition, conformity was maximized in the in-group majority condition and minimized in the out-group majority condition. Taken together, our results support the universal finding of "Asch effect" and provide clear evidence that similarity with the majority plays an important role in the conformity phenomenon.
Keywords: conformity; Asch effect; self-categorization theory; group similarity
Discussion
In line with prior findings (e.g., Nicholson et al., 1985) we replicated the Asch
conformity effect. More than sixty years after Asch originally showed that American
students' judgments in an objective perception task were affected by the erroneous
estimates given by unanimous majority group, Bosnian students were similarly
influenced under the same experimental circumstances. Interestingly, the conformity
in our sample even exceeded the usual level found in other replications of the Asch
experiment (20-30%, cf. Nicholson et al., 1985; Ross, Bierbrauer, & Hoffman, 1976;
Walker & Andrade, 1996). As we can see in Table 1, participants generally followed
the majority in 4 out of 12 critical trials (33.3%). However, when we look only at the
standard condition, where ethnic identity was not salient, we can see that the number
of errors was even bigger, approaching the conformity level obtained by Asch in
similar condition. One reason for these findings could be in cross-cultural differences
on the dimension of individualism-collectivism (Bond & Smith, 1996). In general,
individualistic cultures tend to prioritize independence and uniqueness as cultural
values. Collectivistic cultures, on the other hand, tend to see people as connected
with others and embedded in a broader social context. As such, they tend to
emphasize interdependence, family relationships, and social conformity. Given that
Bosnia and Herzegovina is closer to collectivistic values (probably due to
communism residues) than North America and Western European countries, this
could explain higher levels of conformity in our sample.
Despite this converging evidence in favour of conformity phenomenon, some
authors (e.g., Friend, Rafferty, & Barmel, 1990) pointed out that most people are not
conformists, but that only some individuals tend to conform due to individual
differences in personality. Therefore, it is possible that those conformist personalities
tend to maximize conformity rate, which may also explain the results in our study. If
this hypothesis is true, then the Asch effect should occur only for participants having
conformity disposition, but not for the rest of them: a hypothesis which was
disconfirmed by our results. Indeed, the follow-up analysis conducted without
participants who conformed on each stimulus revealed the overall level of
conformity of 36.29%. Moreover, the fact that 59.2% of subjects conformed at least
at one critical trial indicates that the majority of people exposed to the influence of
others tend to display conformist behaviour. Thus, the results we observed point to
conformity as a rather global phenomenon, which could not be attributed to the
idiosyncratic features of our subjects.
Besides the cross-cultural replication, another important aspect of our study is
that it showed that the Asch effect was clearly moderated by group similarity.
Consistent with the assumption of the SCT (Turner, 1991; Turner et al., 1987),
participants exposed to the in-group majority showed the increase in conformity in
comparison to the standard condition in which group identity was not salient. On the
opposite, when the majority was presented as the out-group, the conformity effect
significantly dropped. Thus, we replicated and extended past research (Abrahams et
al., 1990), showing that self-categorization could play a determining role in
conformity even in more minimal conditions, in which salient in- and out-group
characteristics (i.e., ethnicity) were completely irrelevant for the task at hand. As
such our findings could not be accounted for by the potential differences in objective
informational value (i.e., competence) but rather by the perception of similarity with
the majority. In addition, it should be noted that by including in- and out-groups,
which reflect prototypical ethnic divisions of Bosnian society, we created conditions
that enhanced the ecological validity of the present study. From this point, our
findings could have interesting implications for the understanding of social influence
processes in real life. Indeed, after showing how similarity with particular ethnic
group moderates conformity in clearly unambiguous task, we can easily anticipate
the power of self-categorization process in situations where people have to deal with
more complex and uncertain social reality involving real group interests such as,
support of political decision or voting in the context in which group membership is
highly salient.
Abstract: In the present study, we tried to replicate a classic Asch effect in the cultural context of BosniaHerzegovina and to explore the potential impact of group similarity on conformity. To answer these questions Bosniak (Muslim) students (N = 95) performed classic Asch's line judgment task in the presence of five confederates (the majority) who were ostensibly either of a similar ethnic origin (ingroup), different ethnic origin (out-group) or no salient ethnic origin. The task involved choosing one of three comparison lines that was equal in length to a test line. Each participant went through 18 test trials including 12 critical trials in which confederates provided an obviously wrong answer. In line with past research, the results revealed a clear-cut and powerful "Asch effect" wherein participants followed the majority in 35.4% of critical trials. More importantly, this effect was moderated by group similarity. Thus, in comparison to no salient group identity condition, conformity was maximized in the in-group majority condition and minimized in the out-group majority condition. Taken together, our results support the universal finding of "Asch effect" and provide clear evidence that similarity with the majority plays an important role in the conformity phenomenon.
Keywords: conformity; Asch effect; self-categorization theory; group similarity
Discussion
In line with prior findings (e.g., Nicholson et al., 1985) we replicated the Asch
conformity effect. More than sixty years after Asch originally showed that American
students' judgments in an objective perception task were affected by the erroneous
estimates given by unanimous majority group, Bosnian students were similarly
influenced under the same experimental circumstances. Interestingly, the conformity
in our sample even exceeded the usual level found in other replications of the Asch
experiment (20-30%, cf. Nicholson et al., 1985; Ross, Bierbrauer, & Hoffman, 1976;
Walker & Andrade, 1996). As we can see in Table 1, participants generally followed
the majority in 4 out of 12 critical trials (33.3%). However, when we look only at the
standard condition, where ethnic identity was not salient, we can see that the number
of errors was even bigger, approaching the conformity level obtained by Asch in
similar condition. One reason for these findings could be in cross-cultural differences
on the dimension of individualism-collectivism (Bond & Smith, 1996). In general,
individualistic cultures tend to prioritize independence and uniqueness as cultural
values. Collectivistic cultures, on the other hand, tend to see people as connected
with others and embedded in a broader social context. As such, they tend to
emphasize interdependence, family relationships, and social conformity. Given that
Bosnia and Herzegovina is closer to collectivistic values (probably due to
communism residues) than North America and Western European countries, this
could explain higher levels of conformity in our sample.
Despite this converging evidence in favour of conformity phenomenon, some
authors (e.g., Friend, Rafferty, & Barmel, 1990) pointed out that most people are not
conformists, but that only some individuals tend to conform due to individual
differences in personality. Therefore, it is possible that those conformist personalities
tend to maximize conformity rate, which may also explain the results in our study. If
this hypothesis is true, then the Asch effect should occur only for participants having
conformity disposition, but not for the rest of them: a hypothesis which was
disconfirmed by our results. Indeed, the follow-up analysis conducted without
participants who conformed on each stimulus revealed the overall level of
conformity of 36.29%. Moreover, the fact that 59.2% of subjects conformed at least
at one critical trial indicates that the majority of people exposed to the influence of
others tend to display conformist behaviour. Thus, the results we observed point to
conformity as a rather global phenomenon, which could not be attributed to the
idiosyncratic features of our subjects.
Besides the cross-cultural replication, another important aspect of our study is
that it showed that the Asch effect was clearly moderated by group similarity.
Consistent with the assumption of the SCT (Turner, 1991; Turner et al., 1987),
participants exposed to the in-group majority showed the increase in conformity in
comparison to the standard condition in which group identity was not salient. On the
opposite, when the majority was presented as the out-group, the conformity effect
significantly dropped. Thus, we replicated and extended past research (Abrahams et
al., 1990), showing that self-categorization could play a determining role in
conformity even in more minimal conditions, in which salient in- and out-group
characteristics (i.e., ethnicity) were completely irrelevant for the task at hand. As
such our findings could not be accounted for by the potential differences in objective
informational value (i.e., competence) but rather by the perception of similarity with
the majority. In addition, it should be noted that by including in- and out-groups,
which reflect prototypical ethnic divisions of Bosnian society, we created conditions
that enhanced the ecological validity of the present study. From this point, our
findings could have interesting implications for the understanding of social influence
processes in real life. Indeed, after showing how similarity with particular ethnic
group moderates conformity in clearly unambiguous task, we can easily anticipate
the power of self-categorization process in situations where people have to deal with
more complex and uncertain social reality involving real group interests such as,
support of political decision or voting in the context in which group membership is
highly salient.
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Perception of the bodily cues, interoceptive sensibility (but not interoceptive accuracy), has a significant positive impact on subjective well‐being; a clear exception is gastric sensitivity
Do body‐related sensations make feel us better? Subjective well‐being is associated only with the subjective aspect of interoception. Eszter Ferentzi Áron Horváth Ferenc Köteles. Psychophysiology, 2019;e13319, January 10 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/psyp.13319
Abstract: According to the proposition of several theoretical accounts, the perception of the bodily cues, interoceptive accuracy and interoceptive sensibility, has a significant positive impact on subjective well‐being. Others assume a negative association; however, empirical evidence is scarce. In this study, 142 young adults completed questionnaires assessing subjective well‐being, interoceptive sensibility, and subjective somatic symptoms and participated in measurements of proprioceptive accuracy (reproduction of the angle of the elbow joint), gastric sensitivity (water load test), and heartbeat tracking ability (Schandry task). Subjective well‐being showed weak to medium positive associations with interoceptive sensibility and weak negative associations with symptom reports. No associations with measures of interoceptive accuracy were found. Gastric sensitivity as opposed to heartbeat perception and proprioceptive accuracy moderated the association between interoceptive sensibility and well‐being. Thus, subjective well‐being is associated only with the self‐reported (perceived) aspect of interoception but not related to the sensory measures of interoceptive accuracy.
IAc =interoceptive accuracy
4 | DISCUSSION
In a cross‐sectional study with the participation of young healthy adults, subjective well‐being showed weak‐ to medium‐level associations with interoceptive sensibility even after controlling for gender and negative body‐related sensations (i.e., perceived symptoms). However, no associations with interoceptive accuracy (as assessed by heartbeat tracking ability, gastric sensitivity, and the proprioceptive error with respect to the elbow joint) were found. Moreover, an interaction between interoceptive sensibility and gastric sensitivity was revealed.
The positive association between subjective well‐being and interoceptive sensibility (i.e., the subjective or perceived aspect of interoception) replicates the findings of previous studies (Hanley et al., 2017; Tihanyi, Böőr, et al., 2016; Tihanyi, Sági, Csala, Tolnai, & Köteles, 2016). One explanation is that better psychological functioning and lower levels of perceived stress enable healthy individuals to allocate more attentional resources to various stimuli, including information originating in the body (Köteles et al., 2013). The finding that body‐mind interventions have a positive impact on interoceptive sensibility (Bornemann, Herbert, Mehling, & Singer, 2015; Fissler et al., 2016; Mehling et al., 2013; Rani & Rao, 1994) also supports this idea. It is also possible, however, that a more positive cognitive‐emotional condition simply biases self‐reports in a positive direction (Ferentzi, Drew, et al., 2018). Finally, in accordance with the tenets of body‐mind theorists, paying more attention to the body (i.e., gut feelings, emotions) may also lead to better functioning and improved well‐being (Bakal, 1999; Daubenmier, 2005; Farb et al., 2015; Mehling et al., 2009, 2011). This association might be behaviorally mediated; for example, more focus on body sensations might enable the individual to recognize symptoms of diseases and seek medical help earlier or change potentially risky behaviors in their early phase (Bakal, 1999; Fogel, 2013). However, interoception is a special perceptual process where raw sensory input plays a less salient role in shaping the conscious content than in the case of exteroception (Ádám, 1998). In other words, nonpathological interoceptive sensory information is usually ambiguous, thus its perception of being heavily influenced by top‐down factors such as expectations, previous experiences, environmental cues (Brown, 2004; Friston, 2005; Friston, Kilner, & Harrison, 2006; Pennebaker, 1982). In conclusion, the aforementioned top‐down factors will play a substantial role in the behaviors improving mental and physical health. The strength of the association (interoceptive sensibility explained approximately only 6%–8% of the variance of well‐being) appears realistic; as both constructs are influenced by a number of various factors, a substantially stronger association would be spurious.
Body‐focused attention does not necessarily improve the accuracy of detection of body signals (Ceunen et al., 2013; Silvia & Gendolla, 2001); in other words, there is a considerable dissociation between perceived and actual body‐related events (Ainley & Tsakiris, 2013; Ferentzi et al., 2017; Pennebaker, 1982). For example, subjective somatic symptoms were not related to either indicator of IAc in the current study, which basically reflects the often‐reported independence of symptom reports and body events (van den Bergh, Witthöft, Petersen, & Brown, 2017). Similarly, power posing (i.e., voluntarily adopting powerful postures to improve performance) evoked self‐reported changes in mood but did not influence hormone levels and behavior in risky situations (Ranehill et al., 2015). Although interoceptive sensibility was weakly associated with the cardiac indicators of IAc in our study, IAc did not contribute to subjective well‐ being after controlling for gender, BMI, and resting HR in the regression analysis, and no interaction between interoceptive sensibility and cardioception was revealed. Taking into consideration that the regression analyses were also controlled for somatic symptoms (i.e., sensations from the body that are negative by definition), it can be concluded that the accuracy of detection of interoceptive changes does not have a direct positive or negative impact on well‐being.
The only interaction we found (i.e., gastric sensitivity moderates the association between interoceptive sensibility and well‐being) only partially supports the adaptivity hypothesis, as the contribution of interoceptive sensibility to well‐being is positive only for low and medium levels of gastric sensitivity. According to our result, the interaction between gastric sensitivity and interoceptive sensibility contributes to a higher level of well‐being in the two following cases: firstly, if low to medium gastric sensitivity is accompanied by high interoceptive sensibility, and, secondly, if high gastric sensitivity is accompanied by low interoceptive sensibility. We can only speculate about the interpretation of this result as well as why it was found for gastric sensitivity only. First of all, gastric fullness above a certain level is an unpleasant feeling, which leads to terminating the ongoing food and drink intake. This feeling occurs on a regular basis for everyone, whereas heart‐related and conscious proprioceptive experiences are less frequent under everyday circumstances. Concerning the interpretation of the interaction, high gastric sensitivity can turn the positive association between well‐being and interoceptive sensibility into negative because increased body focus might amplify the unpleasantness of the feeling of distension. This is in accordance with the view that bottom‐up and top‐down processes occur and interact with each other at almost every level of the interoceptive sensory system (Smith & Lane, 2015). Thus, making bodily sensations more conscious might not be beneficial in all cases; it is also an open question, however, whether our finding represents clinical relevance. We would also like to emphasize that this interpretation is speculation only, and the result needs to be confirmed by the replication of the study.
One of the limitations of the current study is that its conclusions are valid for healthy individuals only; atypical interoception may lead to issues in psychological development and represent a general susceptibility to psychopathology (Murphy, Brewer, Catmur, & Bird, 2017). Extremely low and high levels of interoceptive accuracy with respect to one single modality might also have modality‐specific pathological consequences. However, interoceptive accuracy is not a unitary construct (i.e., various interoceptive modalities are independent of each other with respect to IAc; Ferentzi, Bogdány, et al., 2018). This also implies that differences in the accuracy of detection of various bodily cues and modalities within the normal domain can even compete with each other, providing a complex body sensation (Smith & Lane, 2015). Thus, sensitivity with respect to a single channel does not necessarily influence everyday psychological functioning. Interoceptive sensibility, on the other hand, represents a more unitary (i.e., integrated) construct, therefore it may impact self‐reported characteristics such as well‐being.
Issues related to the sensory measurements of interoception have to be mentioned among the limitations of the current study. As IAc is not generalizable across modalities, the current study assessed three interoceptive channels. However, other modalities might be more relevant concerning subjective mental well‐being, such as breathing, the change of heart rate (rather than its actual state), sweating, or the sensation of body temperature change. The context and the interpretation of the bodily cues were also not investigated here, although both might influence self‐rated well‐being. Moreover, the Schandry task has received several criticisms recently and is not considered a reliable indicator of cardioceptive accuracy by some authors (Brener & Ring, 2016; Ring & Brener, 2018). Finally, participants were not screened for mental disorders and chronic conditions that might impact their performance. These issues and the characteristics of the sample (young adult with a relatively high subjective well‐being score) limit the external validity of the findings. In summary, subjective well‐being of healthy young adults is associated with the subjective (perceived) aspect of interoception but not related to interoceptive accuracy. Thus, the level of well‐being depends more on our subjective bodily report than on the actual accuracy of our bodily sensations.
Abstract: According to the proposition of several theoretical accounts, the perception of the bodily cues, interoceptive accuracy and interoceptive sensibility, has a significant positive impact on subjective well‐being. Others assume a negative association; however, empirical evidence is scarce. In this study, 142 young adults completed questionnaires assessing subjective well‐being, interoceptive sensibility, and subjective somatic symptoms and participated in measurements of proprioceptive accuracy (reproduction of the angle of the elbow joint), gastric sensitivity (water load test), and heartbeat tracking ability (Schandry task). Subjective well‐being showed weak to medium positive associations with interoceptive sensibility and weak negative associations with symptom reports. No associations with measures of interoceptive accuracy were found. Gastric sensitivity as opposed to heartbeat perception and proprioceptive accuracy moderated the association between interoceptive sensibility and well‐being. Thus, subjective well‐being is associated only with the self‐reported (perceived) aspect of interoception but not related to the sensory measures of interoceptive accuracy.
IAc =interoceptive accuracy
4 | DISCUSSION
In a cross‐sectional study with the participation of young healthy adults, subjective well‐being showed weak‐ to medium‐level associations with interoceptive sensibility even after controlling for gender and negative body‐related sensations (i.e., perceived symptoms). However, no associations with interoceptive accuracy (as assessed by heartbeat tracking ability, gastric sensitivity, and the proprioceptive error with respect to the elbow joint) were found. Moreover, an interaction between interoceptive sensibility and gastric sensitivity was revealed.
The positive association between subjective well‐being and interoceptive sensibility (i.e., the subjective or perceived aspect of interoception) replicates the findings of previous studies (Hanley et al., 2017; Tihanyi, Böőr, et al., 2016; Tihanyi, Sági, Csala, Tolnai, & Köteles, 2016). One explanation is that better psychological functioning and lower levels of perceived stress enable healthy individuals to allocate more attentional resources to various stimuli, including information originating in the body (Köteles et al., 2013). The finding that body‐mind interventions have a positive impact on interoceptive sensibility (Bornemann, Herbert, Mehling, & Singer, 2015; Fissler et al., 2016; Mehling et al., 2013; Rani & Rao, 1994) also supports this idea. It is also possible, however, that a more positive cognitive‐emotional condition simply biases self‐reports in a positive direction (Ferentzi, Drew, et al., 2018). Finally, in accordance with the tenets of body‐mind theorists, paying more attention to the body (i.e., gut feelings, emotions) may also lead to better functioning and improved well‐being (Bakal, 1999; Daubenmier, 2005; Farb et al., 2015; Mehling et al., 2009, 2011). This association might be behaviorally mediated; for example, more focus on body sensations might enable the individual to recognize symptoms of diseases and seek medical help earlier or change potentially risky behaviors in their early phase (Bakal, 1999; Fogel, 2013). However, interoception is a special perceptual process where raw sensory input plays a less salient role in shaping the conscious content than in the case of exteroception (Ádám, 1998). In other words, nonpathological interoceptive sensory information is usually ambiguous, thus its perception of being heavily influenced by top‐down factors such as expectations, previous experiences, environmental cues (Brown, 2004; Friston, 2005; Friston, Kilner, & Harrison, 2006; Pennebaker, 1982). In conclusion, the aforementioned top‐down factors will play a substantial role in the behaviors improving mental and physical health. The strength of the association (interoceptive sensibility explained approximately only 6%–8% of the variance of well‐being) appears realistic; as both constructs are influenced by a number of various factors, a substantially stronger association would be spurious.
Body‐focused attention does not necessarily improve the accuracy of detection of body signals (Ceunen et al., 2013; Silvia & Gendolla, 2001); in other words, there is a considerable dissociation between perceived and actual body‐related events (Ainley & Tsakiris, 2013; Ferentzi et al., 2017; Pennebaker, 1982). For example, subjective somatic symptoms were not related to either indicator of IAc in the current study, which basically reflects the often‐reported independence of symptom reports and body events (van den Bergh, Witthöft, Petersen, & Brown, 2017). Similarly, power posing (i.e., voluntarily adopting powerful postures to improve performance) evoked self‐reported changes in mood but did not influence hormone levels and behavior in risky situations (Ranehill et al., 2015). Although interoceptive sensibility was weakly associated with the cardiac indicators of IAc in our study, IAc did not contribute to subjective well‐ being after controlling for gender, BMI, and resting HR in the regression analysis, and no interaction between interoceptive sensibility and cardioception was revealed. Taking into consideration that the regression analyses were also controlled for somatic symptoms (i.e., sensations from the body that are negative by definition), it can be concluded that the accuracy of detection of interoceptive changes does not have a direct positive or negative impact on well‐being.
The only interaction we found (i.e., gastric sensitivity moderates the association between interoceptive sensibility and well‐being) only partially supports the adaptivity hypothesis, as the contribution of interoceptive sensibility to well‐being is positive only for low and medium levels of gastric sensitivity. According to our result, the interaction between gastric sensitivity and interoceptive sensibility contributes to a higher level of well‐being in the two following cases: firstly, if low to medium gastric sensitivity is accompanied by high interoceptive sensibility, and, secondly, if high gastric sensitivity is accompanied by low interoceptive sensibility. We can only speculate about the interpretation of this result as well as why it was found for gastric sensitivity only. First of all, gastric fullness above a certain level is an unpleasant feeling, which leads to terminating the ongoing food and drink intake. This feeling occurs on a regular basis for everyone, whereas heart‐related and conscious proprioceptive experiences are less frequent under everyday circumstances. Concerning the interpretation of the interaction, high gastric sensitivity can turn the positive association between well‐being and interoceptive sensibility into negative because increased body focus might amplify the unpleasantness of the feeling of distension. This is in accordance with the view that bottom‐up and top‐down processes occur and interact with each other at almost every level of the interoceptive sensory system (Smith & Lane, 2015). Thus, making bodily sensations more conscious might not be beneficial in all cases; it is also an open question, however, whether our finding represents clinical relevance. We would also like to emphasize that this interpretation is speculation only, and the result needs to be confirmed by the replication of the study.
One of the limitations of the current study is that its conclusions are valid for healthy individuals only; atypical interoception may lead to issues in psychological development and represent a general susceptibility to psychopathology (Murphy, Brewer, Catmur, & Bird, 2017). Extremely low and high levels of interoceptive accuracy with respect to one single modality might also have modality‐specific pathological consequences. However, interoceptive accuracy is not a unitary construct (i.e., various interoceptive modalities are independent of each other with respect to IAc; Ferentzi, Bogdány, et al., 2018). This also implies that differences in the accuracy of detection of various bodily cues and modalities within the normal domain can even compete with each other, providing a complex body sensation (Smith & Lane, 2015). Thus, sensitivity with respect to a single channel does not necessarily influence everyday psychological functioning. Interoceptive sensibility, on the other hand, represents a more unitary (i.e., integrated) construct, therefore it may impact self‐reported characteristics such as well‐being.
Issues related to the sensory measurements of interoception have to be mentioned among the limitations of the current study. As IAc is not generalizable across modalities, the current study assessed three interoceptive channels. However, other modalities might be more relevant concerning subjective mental well‐being, such as breathing, the change of heart rate (rather than its actual state), sweating, or the sensation of body temperature change. The context and the interpretation of the bodily cues were also not investigated here, although both might influence self‐rated well‐being. Moreover, the Schandry task has received several criticisms recently and is not considered a reliable indicator of cardioceptive accuracy by some authors (Brener & Ring, 2016; Ring & Brener, 2018). Finally, participants were not screened for mental disorders and chronic conditions that might impact their performance. These issues and the characteristics of the sample (young adult with a relatively high subjective well‐being score) limit the external validity of the findings. In summary, subjective well‐being of healthy young adults is associated with the subjective (perceived) aspect of interoception but not related to interoceptive accuracy. Thus, the level of well‐being depends more on our subjective bodily report than on the actual accuracy of our bodily sensations.
The climate crisis is not just about the environment, but about human rights, justice, & political will; colonial, racist, & patriarchal systems of oppression have created & fueled it; they must be dismantled
Why We Strike Again. Greta Thunberg, Luisa Neubauer, Angela Valenzuela. Project Syndicate, Nov 29, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-strikes-un-conference-madrid-by-greta-thunberg-et-al-2019-11
Excerpts (emphasis not in the original piece):
After a year of strikes, our voices are being heard. We are being invited to speak in the corridors of power.
With public opinion shifting, world leaders, too, say that they have heard us. They say that they agree with our demand for urgent action to tackle the climate crisis. But they do nothing. As they head to Madrid for the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP25) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, we call out this hypocrisy.
That action must be powerful and wide-ranging. After all, the climate crisis is not just about the environment. It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will. Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it. We need to dismantle them all. Our political leaders can no longer shirk their responsibilities.
Check also: Greta Thunberg's zeal, as the press summarized her speech at the UN Climate Summit, Sep 23, 2019 https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/09/greta-thunberg-as-press-summarized-her.html
Excerpts (emphasis not in the original piece):
After a year of strikes, our voices are being heard. We are being invited to speak in the corridors of power.
With public opinion shifting, world leaders, too, say that they have heard us. They say that they agree with our demand for urgent action to tackle the climate crisis. But they do nothing. As they head to Madrid for the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP25) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, we call out this hypocrisy.
That action must be powerful and wide-ranging. After all, the climate crisis is not just about the environment. It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will. Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it. We need to dismantle them all. Our political leaders can no longer shirk their responsibilities.
Check also: Greta Thunberg's zeal, as the press summarized her speech at the UN Climate Summit, Sep 23, 2019 https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/09/greta-thunberg-as-press-summarized-her.html
Check also We cannot legislate and spend our way out of catastrophic global warming. Jasper Bernes. Commune, Spring 2019. https://communemag.com/between-the-devil-and-the-green-new-deal/
Disentangling physics from the norms of patriarchal white supremacy must begin with an honest accounting of the roots of the Western scientific project in the project of slavery
Making Black Women Scientists under White Empiricism: The Racialization of Epistemology in Physics. Chanda Prescod-Weinstein. Signs, 2020, vol. 45, no. 2. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1086/704991
[...] White empiricism is the phenomenon through which only white people (particularly white men) are read has having a fundamental capacity for objectivity and Black people (particularly Black women) are produced as an ontological other. This phenomenon is stabilized through the production and retention of what Joseph Martin calls prestige asymmetry, which explains how social resources in physics are distributed based on prestige. In American society, Black women are on the losing end of an ontic prestige asymmetry whereby different scientists “garner unequal public approbation” in their everyday lives due to ascribed identities such as gender and race (Martin 2017, 475). White empiricism is one of the mechanisms by which this asymmetry follows Black women physicists into their professional lives. Because white empiricism contravenes core tenets of modern physics (e.g., covariance and relativity), it negatively impacts scientific outcomes and harms the people who are othered. [...]
Excerpts of section "Prestige asymmetry and the manufacture of white empiricism"
A scientist using white empiricism as an analytic framework might assume that there is no dynamic relationship between the underrepresentation of Black women and knowledge production in physics, choosing to ignore evidence that the culture of physics limits participation via racist and sexist gatekeeping. Yet Helen Longino (1990) has persuasively argued that, even in the physical sciences, science is social knowledge. Janice Moulton’s “The Adversary Method” (1983) represents one analysis that shows how culture and knowledge production can come into conflict with concrete epistemic implications. Moulton succinctly notes in a section title that in philosophy there is an “unhappy conflation of aggression with success,” and Traweek observes the same among American high energy physicists (Moulton 1983, 149; Traweek 1992, 130). Making aggressive behavior a requirement for academic success is especially harmful to Black women, since Black women are demonized for engaging in behaviors that even hint at aggression (HarrisPerry 2011, 89).
Disentangling physics from the norms of patriarchal white supremacy must begin with an honest accounting of the roots of the Western scientific project in the project of slavery. Slavery is rarely the starting point for discussions of what many of us would call the post–Enlightenment era development of science, which Jonathan Marks helpfully defines as “the production of convincing knowledge in modern society” (2009, 2), but in order to understand the epistemic dismissal of Black women, we must begin with slavery. Science, mathematics, and slavery were intimately connected: whether it was the early evolution of insurance and actuarial science to calculate the value of jettisoned cargo—brutally murdered people—or efforts to minimize the bow wave—the wake—of ships, to make them faster, to speed the movement of kidnapped Africans from the torturous Middle Passage to a tortured lifetime and usually death in the bondage of chattel slavery (Sharpe 2016, 35). Even a century and a half after the end of slavery and with Black intellectuals making inroads in white-dominant academia, they continue to face epistemic injustice, epistemic marginalization, presumed incompetence, and the cognitive dissonance of consciously recognizing the white supremacy that pervades the scientific culture of “no culture” (Traweek 1992, 162).
[...] White empiricism is the phenomenon through which only white people (particularly white men) are read has having a fundamental capacity for objectivity and Black people (particularly Black women) are produced as an ontological other. This phenomenon is stabilized through the production and retention of what Joseph Martin calls prestige asymmetry, which explains how social resources in physics are distributed based on prestige. In American society, Black women are on the losing end of an ontic prestige asymmetry whereby different scientists “garner unequal public approbation” in their everyday lives due to ascribed identities such as gender and race (Martin 2017, 475). White empiricism is one of the mechanisms by which this asymmetry follows Black women physicists into their professional lives. Because white empiricism contravenes core tenets of modern physics (e.g., covariance and relativity), it negatively impacts scientific outcomes and harms the people who are othered. [...]
Excerpts of section "Prestige asymmetry and the manufacture of white empiricism"
A scientist using white empiricism as an analytic framework might assume that there is no dynamic relationship between the underrepresentation of Black women and knowledge production in physics, choosing to ignore evidence that the culture of physics limits participation via racist and sexist gatekeeping. Yet Helen Longino (1990) has persuasively argued that, even in the physical sciences, science is social knowledge. Janice Moulton’s “The Adversary Method” (1983) represents one analysis that shows how culture and knowledge production can come into conflict with concrete epistemic implications. Moulton succinctly notes in a section title that in philosophy there is an “unhappy conflation of aggression with success,” and Traweek observes the same among American high energy physicists (Moulton 1983, 149; Traweek 1992, 130). Making aggressive behavior a requirement for academic success is especially harmful to Black women, since Black women are demonized for engaging in behaviors that even hint at aggression (HarrisPerry 2011, 89).
Disentangling physics from the norms of patriarchal white supremacy must begin with an honest accounting of the roots of the Western scientific project in the project of slavery. Slavery is rarely the starting point for discussions of what many of us would call the post–Enlightenment era development of science, which Jonathan Marks helpfully defines as “the production of convincing knowledge in modern society” (2009, 2), but in order to understand the epistemic dismissal of Black women, we must begin with slavery. Science, mathematics, and slavery were intimately connected: whether it was the early evolution of insurance and actuarial science to calculate the value of jettisoned cargo—brutally murdered people—or efforts to minimize the bow wave—the wake—of ships, to make them faster, to speed the movement of kidnapped Africans from the torturous Middle Passage to a tortured lifetime and usually death in the bondage of chattel slavery (Sharpe 2016, 35). Even a century and a half after the end of slavery and with Black intellectuals making inroads in white-dominant academia, they continue to face epistemic injustice, epistemic marginalization, presumed incompetence, and the cognitive dissonance of consciously recognizing the white supremacy that pervades the scientific culture of “no culture” (Traweek 1992, 162).
From 2018... Those in the low opposite-sex exposure condition rated subsequent individual voices of the opposite sex as significantly more attractive than those who were in the high opposite-sex exposure condition
Hearing Sex at the Cocktail Party: Biased Sex Ratios Influence Vocal Attractiveness. John. G. Neuhoff ORCID Icon &Taylor N. Sikich. Auditory Perception & Cognition, Volume 1, 2018 - Issue 1-2, Sep 25 2018. https://doi.org/10.1080/25742442.2018.1518949
ABSTRACT: Visual exposure to unbalanced sex ratios influences perceived facial attractiveness for opposite-sex faces. When opposite-sex faces are scarce they are rated as more attractive than when they are plentiful. The current work examines a vocal-auditory analog of this effect. Participants were assigned to either a high or low opposite-sex vocal exposure condition and reported summary statistics by estimating the percentage of male and female voices in an array of simultaneous talkers. Participants then rated the attractiveness of individual opposite-sex voices. Those in the low opposite-sex exposure condition rated subsequent individual voices of the opposite sex as significantly more attractive than those who were in the high opposite-sex exposure condition. The findings demonstrate that a core visuo-perceptual aspect of mate selection preference also occurs in the auditory domain. The results are consistent with the idea that the attractiveness of opposite-sex partners is an honest signal of fitness and involves multimodal processes that are quickly modulated by the perceived availability of opposite-sex partners in a local environment.
KEYWORDS: Sex ratio, ensemble coding, summary statistics, vocal attractiveness, mate selection
Discussion
Simultaneously sounding voices have historically been treated as “background” stimuli in auditory perception research (Brungart & Simpson, 2007; Brungart, Simpson, Ericson, & Scott, 2001; Cox, Alexander, & Rivera, 1991; Darwin, 2008). However, the current results confirm that when directed to attend to multiple simultaneous voices, listeners can use ensemble coding to extract summary statistics and scale the percentage of male and female voices in the array (Neuhoff, 2017). Moreover, when listeners hear a low percentage of opposite-sex voices, subsequent individual opposite sex voices are perceived as more attractive than when they hear a high percentage of opposite-sex voices.
Sex Ratios and Vocal Attractiveness
The effect of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness is consistent with previous work that examines the relationship between sex ratios and mate selection behavior. Favorable sex ratios (a larger choice of potential opposite-sex mates and fewer same-sex rivals) are associated with choosier mate selection behaviors and raised standards of attractiveness in a potential mate (Hahn et al., 2014; Munro et al., 2014; Watkins et al., 2012). From a theoretical perspective, modulating mate selection preferences and behaviors based on the perception of unbalanced sex ratios makes evolutionary sense. Sociosexual behaviors in populations with biased sex ratios skew toward the preferences of the minority sex, which can be more selective because they face less competition from same-sex rivals (Moss & Maner, 2016; Pedersen, 1991; Pollet & Nettle, 2008; Schmitt, 2005). Lowering attractiveness standards in the face of unfavorable sex ratios is a behavior that expands the pool of potential mates (Watkins et al., 2012). The current findings for unbalanced vocal sex ratios are consistent with research on sex ratios and facial attractiveness and provide converging support for a reliable relationship between vocal and visual attractiveness (Abend et al. 2015; Puts et al., 2016).
This suggests that observers use multimodal sources of information when evaluating potential opposite-sex partners and that the process may involve a high degree of automaticity. For example, Mileva, Tompkinson, Watt, and Burton (2018) showed that impression formation involves a mandatory and immediate integration of both vocal and facial information. Future work might examine the degree to which the perception of summary statistics from voices and the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on attractiveness involve automatic processes. In the current work, listeners accurately scaled sex ratios after exposures of only 1500 ms and showed effects of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness after cumulative exposure of only 1.2 min (48 trials × 1500 ms). We also found a main effect for the number of voices presented in the exposure phase. Listeners presented with 5 simultaneous voices perceived subsequent individual voices to be more attractive than those first presented with 10 simultaneous voices. Although we did not specifically ask our participants to report the number of voices in the exposure stimuli, the results are consistent with the overarching hypothesis that standards of attractiveness will be lowered (i.e., voices will be rated as more attractive) when the number of potential opposite-sex partners is diminished.
Finally, we found a main effect for participant sex that indicated men found female voices more attractive than women found male voices. This finding could simply be a function of the relative attractiveness between male and female voices in our study.
Ericson, & Scott, 2001; Cox, Alexander, & Rivera, 1991; Darwin, 2008). However, the current results confirm that when directed to attend to multiple simultaneous voices, listeners can use ensemble coding to extract summary statistics and scale the percentage of male and female voices in the array (Neuhoff, 2017). Moreover, when listeners hear a low percentage of opposite-sex voices, subsequent individual opposite sex voices are perceived as more attractive than when they hear a high percentage of opposite-sex voices. Sex Ratios and Vocal Attractiveness The effect of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness is consistent with previous work that examines the relationship between sex ratios and mate selection behavior. Favorable sex ratios (a larger choice of potential opposite-sex mates and fewer same-sex rivals) are associated with choosier mate selection behaviors and raised standards of attractiveness in a potential mate (Hahn et al., 2014; Munro et al., 2014; Watkins et al., 2012). From a theoretical perspective, modulating mate selection preferences and behaviors based on the perception of unbalanced sex ratios makes evolutionary sense. Sociosexual behaviors in populations with biased sex ratios skew toward the preferences of the minority sex, which can be more selective because they face less competition from same-sex rivals (Moss & Maner, 2016; Pedersen, 1991; Pollet & Nettle, 2008; Schmitt, 2005). Lowering attractiveness standards in the face of unfavorable sex ratios is a behavior that expands the pool of potential mates (Watkins et al., 2012).
The current findings for unbalanced vocal sex ratios are consistent with research on sex ratios and facial attractiveness and provide converging support for a reliable relationship between vocal and visual attractiveness (Abend et al. 2015; Puts et al., 2016). This suggests that observers use multimodal sources of information when evaluating potential opposite-sex partners and that the process may involve a high degree of automaticity. For example, Mileva, Tompkinson, Watt, and Burton (2018) showed that impression formation involves a mandatory and immediate integration of both vocal and facial information. Future work might examine the degree to which the perception of summary statistics from voices and the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on attractiveness involve automatic processes. In the current work, listeners accurately scaled sex ratios after exposures of only 1500 ms and showed effects of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness after cumulative exposure of only 1.2 min (48 trials × 1500 ms). We also found a main effect for the number of voices presented in the exposure phase. Listeners presented with 5 simultaneous voices perceived subsequent individual voices to be more attractive than those first presented with 10 simultaneous voices. Although we did not specifically ask our participants to report the number of voices in the exposure stimuli, the results are consistent with the overarching hypothesis that standards of attractiveness will be lowered (i.e., voices will be rated as more attractive) when the number of potential opposite-sex partners is diminished.
Finally, we found a main effect for participant sex that indicated men found female voices more attractive than women found male voices. This finding could simply be a function of the relative attractiveness between male and female voices in our study. However, it is also a finding that occurs consistently when men and women are asked to give opposite-sex attractiveness ratings (Gladue & Delaney, 1990; Hahn et al., 2014; Johnco et al., 2010) and is consistent with a higher priority in men than in women for physical attractiveness as an important criterion for mate selection (Boxer et al., 2015; Buss, 1989; Buss & Barnes, 1986).
Effect Sizes
We found very large effects sizes between conditions when listeners were asked to judge the percentage of males and females in our multiple voice exposure stimuli. The effect size for the linear trend for perceived sex ratio as a function of actual sex ratio was ηp 2 = .42 (equivalent to Cohen’s d = 1.7). Neuhoff (2017) also found large effect sizes when participants were asked to scale vocal sex ratios that ranged from 0% to 100%. The size of the effect speaks to the robust ability of listeners to scale sex ratios of multiple simultaneous voices.
However, even effect sizes this large likely underestimate the true effect size that might occur in more natural environments. Under natural listening conditions, multiple simultaneous talkers emanate from separate locations in space (rather than centrally from headphones or loudspeakers). Spatial separation of talkers reduces auditory cognitive load and affords a better assessment of target speech among multiple talkers (Andeol, Suied, Scannella, & Dehais, 2017; Bronkhorst, 2000; Shinn-Cunningham, Ihlefeld, Satyavarta, & Larson, 2005). Thus, spatial separation might also afford more accurate estimates of sex ratios. In a similar light, it may also be the case that durations of exposure to multiple voices longer than 1500 ms would provide a better assessment of vocal sex ratios.
In contrast to the large effect sizes for scaling sex ratios, the effect size for the difference in attractiveness ratings between high and low opposite sex exposure conditions was comparatively small (ηp 2 = .02, equivalent to Cohen’s d = .29). Our design had sufficient power to detect this effect size, and it may be that the factors of increased spatial separation and stimulus duration that would occur in a natural environment would also increase the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on attractiveness. The fact that exposure and attractiveness ratings occurred in temporally separate blocks may also contribute to the smaller observed effect size.
However, effect sizes need not be large to be important from an evolutionary perspective. On the contrary, small but reliable effect sizes can be instrumental in explaining how our evolutionary history shaped current perceptual and cognitive abilities (Voyer, Voyer, & Bryden, 1995; Weiss, Kemmler, Deisenhammer, Fleischhacker, & Delazer, 2003; Zilles et al., 2016). For example, in evolutionary psychology, finding sex differences can be critically important evidence that supports a behavioral adaptation. Yet, a meta-analysis of 286 studies on sex differences in spatial perception showed a mean effect size of only d = .37 (ηp 2 = .03; Voyer et al., 1995). Although such small effect sizes are not helpful in predicting the behavior of any particular individual based on sex, they are indicative of differential challenges faced by men and women over the course of evolutionary history. The effect size in our results is also similar to that found for the effect of biased sex ratios on facial attractiveness (ηp 2 = .02, Hahn et al., 2014).
Limitations and Future Research
Our sample included only heterosexual participants. Thus, it is an open question as to how exposure to unbalanced sex ratios might influence participants of other sexual orientations or how participant sexual orientation might interact with the orientation of the to-be-judged talker. Although our results do not speak to these questions, there is considerable evidence to suggest that sexual orientation is likely an important factor in these kinds of investigations and could be a fruitful avenue for further research (Hancock & Pool, 2017; Munson, 2007; Rule, 2017; Valentova, Roberts, & Havlicek, 2013).
The online nature of our data collection introduced variability that might not have been present under more controlled laboratory conditions. For example, participants listened to the stimuli as compressed mp3 files on their own devices at different levels with varying amounts of background noise in each unique listening environment. Nonetheless, all these factors introduce variability that makes it less likely to reject the null hypothesis. Finding significant results in the face of this increased variability speaks to the robust nature of the effects and increases the external validity of the findings.
Online data collection also resulted in a more diverse sample than what we would expect to obtain in typical undergraduate samples. While this is a desirable characteristic of samples, the mean age of our participants (39 years) was considerably older than that of the talkers whose voices were rated for attractiveness (20 years). Although this poses no threat to internal validity (all participants rated voices of the same age), it would be interesting to examine how participant and talker age interact in future studies of sex ratios and attractiveness.
ABSTRACT: Visual exposure to unbalanced sex ratios influences perceived facial attractiveness for opposite-sex faces. When opposite-sex faces are scarce they are rated as more attractive than when they are plentiful. The current work examines a vocal-auditory analog of this effect. Participants were assigned to either a high or low opposite-sex vocal exposure condition and reported summary statistics by estimating the percentage of male and female voices in an array of simultaneous talkers. Participants then rated the attractiveness of individual opposite-sex voices. Those in the low opposite-sex exposure condition rated subsequent individual voices of the opposite sex as significantly more attractive than those who were in the high opposite-sex exposure condition. The findings demonstrate that a core visuo-perceptual aspect of mate selection preference also occurs in the auditory domain. The results are consistent with the idea that the attractiveness of opposite-sex partners is an honest signal of fitness and involves multimodal processes that are quickly modulated by the perceived availability of opposite-sex partners in a local environment.
KEYWORDS: Sex ratio, ensemble coding, summary statistics, vocal attractiveness, mate selection
Discussion
Simultaneously sounding voices have historically been treated as “background” stimuli in auditory perception research (Brungart & Simpson, 2007; Brungart, Simpson, Ericson, & Scott, 2001; Cox, Alexander, & Rivera, 1991; Darwin, 2008). However, the current results confirm that when directed to attend to multiple simultaneous voices, listeners can use ensemble coding to extract summary statistics and scale the percentage of male and female voices in the array (Neuhoff, 2017). Moreover, when listeners hear a low percentage of opposite-sex voices, subsequent individual opposite sex voices are perceived as more attractive than when they hear a high percentage of opposite-sex voices.
Sex Ratios and Vocal Attractiveness
The effect of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness is consistent with previous work that examines the relationship between sex ratios and mate selection behavior. Favorable sex ratios (a larger choice of potential opposite-sex mates and fewer same-sex rivals) are associated with choosier mate selection behaviors and raised standards of attractiveness in a potential mate (Hahn et al., 2014; Munro et al., 2014; Watkins et al., 2012). From a theoretical perspective, modulating mate selection preferences and behaviors based on the perception of unbalanced sex ratios makes evolutionary sense. Sociosexual behaviors in populations with biased sex ratios skew toward the preferences of the minority sex, which can be more selective because they face less competition from same-sex rivals (Moss & Maner, 2016; Pedersen, 1991; Pollet & Nettle, 2008; Schmitt, 2005). Lowering attractiveness standards in the face of unfavorable sex ratios is a behavior that expands the pool of potential mates (Watkins et al., 2012). The current findings for unbalanced vocal sex ratios are consistent with research on sex ratios and facial attractiveness and provide converging support for a reliable relationship between vocal and visual attractiveness (Abend et al. 2015; Puts et al., 2016).
This suggests that observers use multimodal sources of information when evaluating potential opposite-sex partners and that the process may involve a high degree of automaticity. For example, Mileva, Tompkinson, Watt, and Burton (2018) showed that impression formation involves a mandatory and immediate integration of both vocal and facial information. Future work might examine the degree to which the perception of summary statistics from voices and the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on attractiveness involve automatic processes. In the current work, listeners accurately scaled sex ratios after exposures of only 1500 ms and showed effects of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness after cumulative exposure of only 1.2 min (48 trials × 1500 ms). We also found a main effect for the number of voices presented in the exposure phase. Listeners presented with 5 simultaneous voices perceived subsequent individual voices to be more attractive than those first presented with 10 simultaneous voices. Although we did not specifically ask our participants to report the number of voices in the exposure stimuli, the results are consistent with the overarching hypothesis that standards of attractiveness will be lowered (i.e., voices will be rated as more attractive) when the number of potential opposite-sex partners is diminished.
Finally, we found a main effect for participant sex that indicated men found female voices more attractive than women found male voices. This finding could simply be a function of the relative attractiveness between male and female voices in our study.
Ericson, & Scott, 2001; Cox, Alexander, & Rivera, 1991; Darwin, 2008). However, the current results confirm that when directed to attend to multiple simultaneous voices, listeners can use ensemble coding to extract summary statistics and scale the percentage of male and female voices in the array (Neuhoff, 2017). Moreover, when listeners hear a low percentage of opposite-sex voices, subsequent individual opposite sex voices are perceived as more attractive than when they hear a high percentage of opposite-sex voices. Sex Ratios and Vocal Attractiveness The effect of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness is consistent with previous work that examines the relationship between sex ratios and mate selection behavior. Favorable sex ratios (a larger choice of potential opposite-sex mates and fewer same-sex rivals) are associated with choosier mate selection behaviors and raised standards of attractiveness in a potential mate (Hahn et al., 2014; Munro et al., 2014; Watkins et al., 2012). From a theoretical perspective, modulating mate selection preferences and behaviors based on the perception of unbalanced sex ratios makes evolutionary sense. Sociosexual behaviors in populations with biased sex ratios skew toward the preferences of the minority sex, which can be more selective because they face less competition from same-sex rivals (Moss & Maner, 2016; Pedersen, 1991; Pollet & Nettle, 2008; Schmitt, 2005). Lowering attractiveness standards in the face of unfavorable sex ratios is a behavior that expands the pool of potential mates (Watkins et al., 2012).
The current findings for unbalanced vocal sex ratios are consistent with research on sex ratios and facial attractiveness and provide converging support for a reliable relationship between vocal and visual attractiveness (Abend et al. 2015; Puts et al., 2016). This suggests that observers use multimodal sources of information when evaluating potential opposite-sex partners and that the process may involve a high degree of automaticity. For example, Mileva, Tompkinson, Watt, and Burton (2018) showed that impression formation involves a mandatory and immediate integration of both vocal and facial information. Future work might examine the degree to which the perception of summary statistics from voices and the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on attractiveness involve automatic processes. In the current work, listeners accurately scaled sex ratios after exposures of only 1500 ms and showed effects of unbalanced sex ratios on perceived attractiveness after cumulative exposure of only 1.2 min (48 trials × 1500 ms). We also found a main effect for the number of voices presented in the exposure phase. Listeners presented with 5 simultaneous voices perceived subsequent individual voices to be more attractive than those first presented with 10 simultaneous voices. Although we did not specifically ask our participants to report the number of voices in the exposure stimuli, the results are consistent with the overarching hypothesis that standards of attractiveness will be lowered (i.e., voices will be rated as more attractive) when the number of potential opposite-sex partners is diminished.
Finally, we found a main effect for participant sex that indicated men found female voices more attractive than women found male voices. This finding could simply be a function of the relative attractiveness between male and female voices in our study. However, it is also a finding that occurs consistently when men and women are asked to give opposite-sex attractiveness ratings (Gladue & Delaney, 1990; Hahn et al., 2014; Johnco et al., 2010) and is consistent with a higher priority in men than in women for physical attractiveness as an important criterion for mate selection (Boxer et al., 2015; Buss, 1989; Buss & Barnes, 1986).
Effect Sizes
We found very large effects sizes between conditions when listeners were asked to judge the percentage of males and females in our multiple voice exposure stimuli. The effect size for the linear trend for perceived sex ratio as a function of actual sex ratio was ηp 2 = .42 (equivalent to Cohen’s d = 1.7). Neuhoff (2017) also found large effect sizes when participants were asked to scale vocal sex ratios that ranged from 0% to 100%. The size of the effect speaks to the robust ability of listeners to scale sex ratios of multiple simultaneous voices.
However, even effect sizes this large likely underestimate the true effect size that might occur in more natural environments. Under natural listening conditions, multiple simultaneous talkers emanate from separate locations in space (rather than centrally from headphones or loudspeakers). Spatial separation of talkers reduces auditory cognitive load and affords a better assessment of target speech among multiple talkers (Andeol, Suied, Scannella, & Dehais, 2017; Bronkhorst, 2000; Shinn-Cunningham, Ihlefeld, Satyavarta, & Larson, 2005). Thus, spatial separation might also afford more accurate estimates of sex ratios. In a similar light, it may also be the case that durations of exposure to multiple voices longer than 1500 ms would provide a better assessment of vocal sex ratios.
In contrast to the large effect sizes for scaling sex ratios, the effect size for the difference in attractiveness ratings between high and low opposite sex exposure conditions was comparatively small (ηp 2 = .02, equivalent to Cohen’s d = .29). Our design had sufficient power to detect this effect size, and it may be that the factors of increased spatial separation and stimulus duration that would occur in a natural environment would also increase the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on attractiveness. The fact that exposure and attractiveness ratings occurred in temporally separate blocks may also contribute to the smaller observed effect size.
However, effect sizes need not be large to be important from an evolutionary perspective. On the contrary, small but reliable effect sizes can be instrumental in explaining how our evolutionary history shaped current perceptual and cognitive abilities (Voyer, Voyer, & Bryden, 1995; Weiss, Kemmler, Deisenhammer, Fleischhacker, & Delazer, 2003; Zilles et al., 2016). For example, in evolutionary psychology, finding sex differences can be critically important evidence that supports a behavioral adaptation. Yet, a meta-analysis of 286 studies on sex differences in spatial perception showed a mean effect size of only d = .37 (ηp 2 = .03; Voyer et al., 1995). Although such small effect sizes are not helpful in predicting the behavior of any particular individual based on sex, they are indicative of differential challenges faced by men and women over the course of evolutionary history. The effect size in our results is also similar to that found for the effect of biased sex ratios on facial attractiveness (ηp 2 = .02, Hahn et al., 2014).
Limitations and Future Research
Our sample included only heterosexual participants. Thus, it is an open question as to how exposure to unbalanced sex ratios might influence participants of other sexual orientations or how participant sexual orientation might interact with the orientation of the to-be-judged talker. Although our results do not speak to these questions, there is considerable evidence to suggest that sexual orientation is likely an important factor in these kinds of investigations and could be a fruitful avenue for further research (Hancock & Pool, 2017; Munson, 2007; Rule, 2017; Valentova, Roberts, & Havlicek, 2013).
The online nature of our data collection introduced variability that might not have been present under more controlled laboratory conditions. For example, participants listened to the stimuli as compressed mp3 files on their own devices at different levels with varying amounts of background noise in each unique listening environment. Nonetheless, all these factors introduce variability that makes it less likely to reject the null hypothesis. Finding significant results in the face of this increased variability speaks to the robust nature of the effects and increases the external validity of the findings.
Online data collection also resulted in a more diverse sample than what we would expect to obtain in typical undergraduate samples. While this is a desirable characteristic of samples, the mean age of our participants (39 years) was considerably older than that of the talkers whose voices were rated for attractiveness (20 years). Although this poses no threat to internal validity (all participants rated voices of the same age), it would be interesting to examine how participant and talker age interact in future studies of sex ratios and attractiveness.
Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they?
Overprecision Increases Subsequent Surprise. Derek Schatz, Don A. Moore. bioRxiv, December 13, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1101/2019.12.13.875203
Abstract: Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.
Abstract: Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.
GENERAL DISCUSSION
Our results show that ex-ante confidence and ex-post surprise are inextricably
linked. Our primary finding is that when people are correct, greater ex-ante confidence
produces less ex-post surprise, whereas when they are incorrect, greater ex-ante confidence
produces more ex-post surprise. We examine the psychology underlying these relationships and identify moderators that can either suppress or enhance their strength. Studies 1 and 2
establish the link between confidence and surprise, highlighting that correctness is a
powerful moderator of the relationship. Studies 2 and 3 employ exogenous manipulations
of confidence; their results replicate the correlational results of Study 1. Study 2 finds more
powerful confidence-correctness interaction effects on surprise for epistemic questions than
for aleatory, consistent with the notion that feeling personally accountable for knowing or
not knowing the answer increases the intensity of emotional reactions to being right or
wrong. Study 3 finds that people are more surprised about being wrong than they expect to
be.
What of the utility of surprise? If surprise reflects prediction error, individuals
should seek to maximize accuracy and minimize surprise (Ely, Frankel, & Kamenica, 2015).
This implies that surprise should lead people to reduce their subsequent confidence. Our
results suggest that surprise does not always play this functional role, or that it is difficult to
measure consistently. Future research should examine the conditions under which surprise
has a corrective effect on subsequent confidence. How quickly does this effect decay and
what possible moderators could increase the calibrating power and longevity of feedback on
subsequent confidence? Could incorrect answers in epistemic domains more central to
one’s self-concept ‘stick’ for a longer period of time, forcing one’s re-evaluation of their
believed expertise? Or could the opposite be the case, where the incorrect answer is
considered anomalous and the sense of expertise persists?
We aspired to measure the effects of overprecision on surprise. In recording
participants’ ex-ante confidence, their correctness, and their ex-post surprise, we document
consistent evidence suggesting that people expect to be correct. If they go into a decision with confidence, they are more surprised to be incorrect, and less surprised when correct.
We believe these results do more than underscore precision in judgment. Rather, this
research approaches the topic with a new paradigm that serves to reveal another layer in the
scientific understanding of the psychology of confidence and precision in judgment.
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Negative relationship between managers' skill diversity & performance: Having common ground in the boardroom (directors sharing skills in order to be able to communicate effectively) seems important
Director skill sets. Renée B. Adams, Ali C. Akyol, Patrick Verwijmeren. Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 130, Issue 3, December 2018, Pages 641-662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.04.010
Abstract: Directors are not one-dimensional. We characterize their skill sets by exploiting Regulation S-K's 2009 requirement that U.S. firms must disclose the experience, qualifications, attributes, or skills that led the nominating committee to choose an individual as a director. We then examine how skills cluster on and across boards. Factor analysis indicates that the main dimension along which boards vary is in the diversity of skills of their directors. We find that firm performance increases when director skill sets exhibit more commonality.
Abstract: Directors are not one-dimensional. We characterize their skill sets by exploiting Regulation S-K's 2009 requirement that U.S. firms must disclose the experience, qualifications, attributes, or skills that led the nominating committee to choose an individual as a director. We then examine how skills cluster on and across boards. Factor analysis indicates that the main dimension along which boards vary is in the diversity of skills of their directors. We find that firm performance increases when director skill sets exhibit more commonality.
4. Skill diversity and firm performance
Our factor analysis indicates that the diversity of skills on a board is the primary
dimension among which boards of directors vary. Organizational research emphasizes that
diversity of skills might be beneficial in decision-making as it brings greater resources to
problem-solving and could lead to a more complete analysis of an issue (Milliken and
Martins, 1996; O’Reilly and Williams, 1998). However, different personal and professional
backgrounds may lead to different ways in which team members interpret information and to
multiple representations of a problem (Beers et al., 2006; Hambrick, 2007).
Misunderstandings and disagreement can then threaten effective decision-making processes
within multidisciplinary teams. For example, Garlappi, Giammarino, and Lazrak (2017) show
that when directors have heterogeneous priors, boards may underinvest in multi-stage
projects because they anticipate future disagreement. In their model, security issuance can help alleviate the underinvestment problem. Changing board composition may also work.
Murray (1989), Knight et al. (1999), Pelled, Eisenhardt, and Xin (1999), and Simons, Pelled,
and Smith (1999) argue that having common ground among group members can overcome
some of the problems of heterogeneous teams.
Since there may be advantages and disadvantages to having more diversity of skills
on a team, it is an empirical question how director skill diversity relates to performance on
average.
4.1. The relationship between the factors and firm performance
We examine the relation between firm performance and the first factor from both our
ML and IPF factor analysis in Table 5. We regress our proxy for Tobin’s Q on our factors
and a set of controls that are common to governance performance regressions (e.g., Yermack,
1996; Adams and Ferreira, 2009; Faleye, Hoitash, and Hoitash, 2018). As governance
controls we include variables that plausibly relate to both performance and skills. For
example, we expect the number of skills to be positively related to board size and board
independence. As the number of committees increases, firms might also add more directors
with relevant skills to their board. 6 As the diversity literature argues (e.g., Milliken and
Martins, 1996), skill diversity may affect communication, so we include the logarithm of the
number of board meetings.
As firm-level controls, we include the logarithm of assets as a proxy for firm size, the
number of segments as a proxy for diversification, capital expenditures, ROA, volatility, and
the natural logarithm of firm age. We provide the exact definitions of the control variables in
Appendix A. All models include two-digit SIC code industry effects and year fixed effects and the standard errors are corrected for potential heteroskedasticity and clustering at the firm
level.
[ please insert Table 5 here ]
Column 1 of Table 5 shows that the ML diversity of skills factor is negatively related
to the firm’s Tobin’s Q. This relation is robust to controlling for other firm characteristics, as
can be seen in Column 2, and to the use of the IPF factor method, as can be seen in Columns
3 and 4. The coefficients on the firm-level controls are generally consistent with previous
literature. The negative coefficient on board meetings is consistent with Vafeas (1999), for
example.
4.2. Measuring the diversity of skills
Factor analysis is sometimes unappealing because it is difficult to assess the economic
magnitudes of coefficients on factors. It is also difficult to make the arguments necessary for
instrument validity in an instrumental variable (IV) analysis when the endogenous variable is
a factor. Thus, we examine whether the factor has a more intuitive counterpart in the data. An
obvious choice is to simply count the number of skills that are represented on a board. The
typical firm has ten different skills on the board in a given year. In unreported results, we
show that the correlations between the number of skills and the ML and IPF factors are 0.921
and 0.967, respectively. Columns 5 and 6 of Table 5 confirm our finding from the factor
analysis that the number of skills and Tobin’s Q are negatively related. Thus, the number of
skills seems to capture the essential meaning of the factor.7 4.3. Potential reverse causality
While the results from Table 5 suggest that there is a negative correlation between
skill diversity and firm performance, we cannot immediately give this relationship a causal
interpretation because of potential endogeneity problems due to reverse causality. It is
plausible, for example, that underperforming firms look for more skill diversity on their
boards to get different advice. Another potential concern is that underperforming firms
engage in window dressing by making their directors appear more talented than they really
are. These arguments would predict a negative relationship between performance and skills.
On the other hand, it is also possible that poorly performing firms have other concerns and
pay less attention to the new regulation as a result. This argument would predict a positive
relationship between performance and skills. Without a better understanding of how directors
match to firms, it is difficult to sign the bias in the ordinary least squares (OLS) results. We
attempt to formally address this concern in our set-up using an instrumental variable analysis.
We use two instruments whose summary statistics are provided in Appendix D. Since
both instruments are time-invariant, we conduct our IV analysis for the 2010 cross-section
only.
For our first instrument, we exploit the fact that the amendments to Regulation S-K
include a requirement in Item 407(c)(vi) for firms to disclose how they consider diversity in
the director nomination process. Item 407(c) does not specify the type of diversity the
regulation pertains to.
8
Since it was bundled with Item 401(e) concerning disclosure of
director skills, it is plausible that firms interpreted 407(c) as pressure to increase skill diversity on the board. If so, we might expect firms with more time to incorporate Regulation
S-K’s requirements to attempt to increase diversity by appointing new directors to the board.
Fig. 3 provides some evidence consistent with our expectations: the proportion of firms
appointing new directors in a given proxy month is higher the later the month occurs relative
to the passage of Regulation S-K. Thus, we define our instrument to be the number of days
between the day the 2009 amendments to Regulation S-K were passed and the filing of the
firm’s proxy statement in 2010. Based on the evidence in Fig. 3, we expect this instrument to
be correlated with the number of skills on the board.
[ please insert Figure 3 here ]
On the other hand, we believe it is unlikely that the number of days between
Regulation S-K and the proxy filing is correlated with firm performance in 2010, as long as
the proxy filing date does not change in response to poor performance. We collect proxy
filing dates for 2009 and 2010 from the SEC’s Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and
Retrieval system (EDGAR) and examine whether there were any changes in the dates. Fig. 4
shows the distribution of changes between the two years. As is evident from the figure, most
changes occur in the -1, 0, +1, day range, which is reasonable if annual meetings are held
close to or on the weekend and firms send their proxy statements out a fixed number of days
before the meeting.9
[ please insert Figure 4 here]
The second instrument is a dummy if a firm is within 70 miles (roughly an hour’s
travel distance away) of an airport hub—an airport that handles over 1% of annual passenger
boardings according to the Federal Aviation Authority
(http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/categories/). The
rationale for this instrument is that firms are less constrained in choosing directors when it is
easy for them to attend board meetings and this may lead to an increase in skills on the board.
Of course, distance to the airport may be directly correlated with firm performance because it
may affect firms’ transportation networks. But we believe that to a large extent this effect
should be controlled for by other variables in our regression, for example, firm size,
diversification (i.e., the number of segments), and industry.
Column 7 of Table 5 shows the results of the second stage of the IV regression of the
specification in Column 6. We report the coefficient on the instruments from the first-stage
regression at the bottom of the table. The first-stage coefficients on our instruments have the
expected signs and are statistically significant. However, the Kleibergen-Paap Wald statistic
(7.98) is mid-way between the Stock-Yogo cutoffs for 25% (7.25) and 20% (8.75) maximal
IV size, which suggests the magnitudes of our second-stage coefficients are still biased.10
To gain confidence that the bias does not affect the sign of the coefficient on the
number of skills, we substitute the instruments for the number of skills in the Tobin’s Q
regression in Column 6 of Table 5. Under the assumption that the instruments are exogenous,
the coefficients on the instruments in this reduced form are consistent estimates of the
population coefficient on the number of skills multiplied by the coefficients on the
instruments in the first-stage regression. The coefficients on both instruments in the reduced
form are negative. Since the coefficients on the instruments in the first stage are both positive, we infer that under our assumptions the ―true‖ coefficient on the number of skills is
indeed negative.
In the second-stage IV regression, the coefficient on the number of skills is negative.
The coefficient is also more negative than in the OLS regressions. This suggests that the bias
is positive [see the expression for the OLS bias in, e.g., Adams, Almeida, and Ferreira
(2009)], i.e., poorly performing firms appear to focus on skills rather than seek out greater
skill diversity for their directors. Because the coefficients on the number of skills are negative
in both OLS and IV specifications, we interpret our results as suggestive of a negative causal
effect of skill diversity on performance.
From Column 7, a one standard deviation increase in the number of skills (2.928) is
associated with a 32.26% reduction in Tobin’s Q at the mean. This is clearly too large and
confirms our suspicion that the IV results may be consistent but not unbiased. The economic
magnitude of skills in Column 6 is -2.44%. Since the IV results are more negative than the
OLS results, one way to interpret the economic magnitudes is to take -2.44% as an upper
bound for the effect of the number of skills on performance. Since this effect is arguably
already economically significant, our results suggest that skill diversity is economically
important.
5. Common ground in director skills
We document that diversity is the main dimension along which boards vary with
respect to skill. An important question is what drives the negative relationship between skill
diversity and performance. A potential explanation for this finding is the importance of
having common ground in the boardroom, i.e., the need for directors to share skills in order to
be able to communicate effectively. We examine this potential mechanism in two ways.
Detecting smugglers... Identifying strategies and behaviours in individuals in possession of illicit objects: Lie detection accuracy rate was poor (48% in Experiment 1 and 39.2% in Experiment 2)
Detecting smugglers: Identifying strategies and behaviours in individuals in possession of illicit objects. Samantha Mann Haneen Deeb Aldert Vrij Lorraine Hope Lavinia Pontigia. Applied Cognitive Psychology, December 13 2019. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3622
Summary: Behaviour Detection Officers’ task is to spot potential criminals in public spaces, but scientific research concerning what to look for is scarce. In two experiments, 52 (Experiment 1A) and 60 (Experiment 2A) participants carried out a mission involving a ferry‐crossing. Half were asked to smuggle an object; the other half were non‐smugglers. In Experiment 2A, two confederates appeared to approach as if looking for someone on the ferry. Smugglers, more than non‐smugglers, reported afterwards to have felt nervous, self‐conscious and conspicuous and to attempt behavioural control during the ferry‐crossing. The secretly videotaped ferry‐crossings were shown to 104 (Experiment 1B) and 120 (Experiment 2B) observers, tasked to identify the smugglers. Although they reported paying attention mostly to signs of nervousness, lie detection accuracy rate was poor (48% in Experiment 1 and 39.2% in Experiment 2), because their perceptions of nervousness did not match the experiences of nervousness reported by the (non)smugglers.
Summary: Behaviour Detection Officers’ task is to spot potential criminals in public spaces, but scientific research concerning what to look for is scarce. In two experiments, 52 (Experiment 1A) and 60 (Experiment 2A) participants carried out a mission involving a ferry‐crossing. Half were asked to smuggle an object; the other half were non‐smugglers. In Experiment 2A, two confederates appeared to approach as if looking for someone on the ferry. Smugglers, more than non‐smugglers, reported afterwards to have felt nervous, self‐conscious and conspicuous and to attempt behavioural control during the ferry‐crossing. The secretly videotaped ferry‐crossings were shown to 104 (Experiment 1B) and 120 (Experiment 2B) observers, tasked to identify the smugglers. Although they reported paying attention mostly to signs of nervousness, lie detection accuracy rate was poor (48% in Experiment 1 and 39.2% in Experiment 2), because their perceptions of nervousness did not match the experiences of nervousness reported by the (non)smugglers.
Rolf Degen summarizing: Personality has a strong impact on happiness, with low neuroticism and high extraversion particularly advantageous, while modesty avails to nothing
Anglim, Jeromy, Sharon Horwood, Luke Smillie, Rosario J. Marrero, and Joshua K. Wood. 2019. “Predicting Psychological and Subjective Well-being from Personality: A Meta-analysis.” PsyArXiv. December 14. doi:10.1037/bul0000226
Abstract: This study reports the most comprehensive assessment to date of the relations that the domains and facets of Big Five and HEXACO personality have with self-reported subjective well- being (SWB: life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect) and psychological well-being (PWB: positive relations, autonomy, environmental mastery, purpose in life, self-acceptance, and personal growth). It presents a meta-analysis (n = 334,567, k = 462) of the correlations of Big Five and HEXACO personality domains with the dimensions of SWB and PWB. It provides the first meta-analysis of personality and well-being to examine (a) HEXACO personality, (b) PWB dimensions, and (c) a broad range of established Big Five measures. It also provides the first robust synthesis of facet-level correlations and incremental prediction by facets over domains in relation to SWB and PWB using four large datasets comprising data from prominent, long-form hierarchical personality frameworks: NEO PI-R (n = 1,673), IPIP-NEO (n = 903), HEXACO PI- R (n = 465), and Big Five Aspect Scales (n = 706). Meta-analytic results highlighted the importance of Big Five neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. The pattern of correlations between Big Five personality and SWB was similar across personality measures (e.g., BFI, NEO, IPIP, BFAS, Adjectives). In the HEXACO model, extraversion was the strongest well- being correlate. Facet-level analyses provided a richer description of the relationship between personality and well-being, and clarified differences between the two trait frameworks. Prediction by facets was typically around 20% better than domains, and this incremental prediction was larger for some well-being dimensions than others.
See https://osf.io/42rsy/ for Data and R scripts for the meta-analysis and facet-level data analyses of the above paper.
Abstract: This study reports the most comprehensive assessment to date of the relations that the domains and facets of Big Five and HEXACO personality have with self-reported subjective well- being (SWB: life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect) and psychological well-being (PWB: positive relations, autonomy, environmental mastery, purpose in life, self-acceptance, and personal growth). It presents a meta-analysis (n = 334,567, k = 462) of the correlations of Big Five and HEXACO personality domains with the dimensions of SWB and PWB. It provides the first meta-analysis of personality and well-being to examine (a) HEXACO personality, (b) PWB dimensions, and (c) a broad range of established Big Five measures. It also provides the first robust synthesis of facet-level correlations and incremental prediction by facets over domains in relation to SWB and PWB using four large datasets comprising data from prominent, long-form hierarchical personality frameworks: NEO PI-R (n = 1,673), IPIP-NEO (n = 903), HEXACO PI- R (n = 465), and Big Five Aspect Scales (n = 706). Meta-analytic results highlighted the importance of Big Five neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. The pattern of correlations between Big Five personality and SWB was similar across personality measures (e.g., BFI, NEO, IPIP, BFAS, Adjectives). In the HEXACO model, extraversion was the strongest well- being correlate. Facet-level analyses provided a richer description of the relationship between personality and well-being, and clarified differences between the two trait frameworks. Prediction by facets was typically around 20% better than domains, and this incremental prediction was larger for some well-being dimensions than others.
See https://osf.io/42rsy/ for Data and R scripts for the meta-analysis and facet-level data analyses of the above paper.
Laypeople appear to believe that part of what brings happiness is living a moral life; but adherence to deontological vs. utilitarian ethical principles does not seem to relate to one’s overall happiness
Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results. Justin F. Landy et al. http://www.socialjudgments.com/docs/Crowdsourcing_Hypothesis_Tests_Manuscript_Oct_31_2019.pdf
Abstract: To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
Keywords: Crowdsourcing, scientific transparency, stimulus sampling, forecasting, conceptual replications, research robustness
Hypothesis 5: The tendency to make deontological judgments is positively correlated with
happiness.
In order to bridge the normative-descriptive divide between the fields of
philosophical ethics (how should people morally behave) and moral psychology (how and why
do people morally behave) cognitive science must map out how variation in moral cognitions are
systematically related to variances in outcomes related to human flourishing. The goal of this
original research was to contribute to this endeavor by examining how the tendency to make
utilitarian versus deontological moral judgments (Bentham 1970/1823; Kahane, 2015; Kant,
1993/1785; Mill, 1861) relates to personal happiness and well-being (Kahneman, Diener, &
Schwarz, 1999; Ryff, 1989; Waterman, 1993). The idea that happiness and morality are tightly
intertwined has a long history in philosophy (see, e.g., Annas, 1993; Aristotle, 340 BCE/2002;
Foot, 2001; Kraut, 1979), and recent empirical work suggests that people consider moral
goodness to be an element of what “happiness” consists of (Phillips, Freitas, Mott, Gruber, &
Knobe, 2017; Phillips, Nyholm, & Liao, 2014). However, prior work has not examined the
relationship (if any) between specific moral orientations and happiness.
Hypothesis 5 posits that people who are more inclined to base their moral judgments on
the violation of rules, duties, and obligations (deontological judgments) versus material
outcomes (utilitarian judgments) are also more likely to experience happiness in their lives. This
prediction is based on philosophical and scientific evidence that has demonstrated shared
psychological and neurological mechanisms between these dimensions (e.g., Everett, Pizarro, &
Crockett, 2016; Greene, 2013; Lieberman, 2013; Phillips et al., 2017; Singer, 2005). To test this
hypothesis, Sowden and Hall (2015) asked participants to judge several morally questionable
behaviors that pitted utilitarian and deontological considerations against one another (Greene et
al. 2001) and compared an index of those judgments to how they responded to measures of
subjective well-being (Diener et al., 1985; Watson et al., 1988) and eudaimonic happiness
(Waterman et al., 2010). The crowdsourced project posed the research question to independent
researchers, who separately designed studies relating moral judgments to individual happiness.
Results from Hyp 5
Hypothesis 5: Deontological judgments predict happiness. Although the original pattern of results once again directly replicated using the original materials, the hypothesis that individuals who tend to make deontological (vs. utilitarian) judgments report different levels of personal happiness was not supported overall by the crowdsourced conceptual replications. Although a statistically significant directional effect in support of H5 was reported in the Main Studies, the aggregated estimate was close to zero, and the effect did not reach statistical significance in the Replication Studies. Overall, the Bayesian analysis found strong evidence against this original prediction. There has not previously been a systematic review or metaanalysis of the relationship between moral stance and happiness, though prior research has linked both processes to emotional and intuitive responding (e.g., Everett et al., 2016; Greene, 2013; Lieberman, 2013; Phillips et al., 2017; Singer, 2005). These results fail to find support for an association between deontological moral judgments and hedonic happiness that has been suggested – although not empirically confirmed – by this prior work. Although laypeople appear to believe that part of what brings happiness is living a moral life (Phillips et al., 2017; Phillips et al., 2014), adherence to deontological vs. utilitarian ethical principles does not seem to relate to one’s overall happiness.
Abstract: To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
Keywords: Crowdsourcing, scientific transparency, stimulus sampling, forecasting, conceptual replications, research robustness
Hypothesis 5: The tendency to make deontological judgments is positively correlated with
happiness.
In order to bridge the normative-descriptive divide between the fields of
philosophical ethics (how should people morally behave) and moral psychology (how and why
do people morally behave) cognitive science must map out how variation in moral cognitions are
systematically related to variances in outcomes related to human flourishing. The goal of this
original research was to contribute to this endeavor by examining how the tendency to make
utilitarian versus deontological moral judgments (Bentham 1970/1823; Kahane, 2015; Kant,
1993/1785; Mill, 1861) relates to personal happiness and well-being (Kahneman, Diener, &
Schwarz, 1999; Ryff, 1989; Waterman, 1993). The idea that happiness and morality are tightly
intertwined has a long history in philosophy (see, e.g., Annas, 1993; Aristotle, 340 BCE/2002;
Foot, 2001; Kraut, 1979), and recent empirical work suggests that people consider moral
goodness to be an element of what “happiness” consists of (Phillips, Freitas, Mott, Gruber, &
Knobe, 2017; Phillips, Nyholm, & Liao, 2014). However, prior work has not examined the
relationship (if any) between specific moral orientations and happiness.
Hypothesis 5 posits that people who are more inclined to base their moral judgments on
the violation of rules, duties, and obligations (deontological judgments) versus material
outcomes (utilitarian judgments) are also more likely to experience happiness in their lives. This
prediction is based on philosophical and scientific evidence that has demonstrated shared
psychological and neurological mechanisms between these dimensions (e.g., Everett, Pizarro, &
Crockett, 2016; Greene, 2013; Lieberman, 2013; Phillips et al., 2017; Singer, 2005). To test this
hypothesis, Sowden and Hall (2015) asked participants to judge several morally questionable
behaviors that pitted utilitarian and deontological considerations against one another (Greene et
al. 2001) and compared an index of those judgments to how they responded to measures of
subjective well-being (Diener et al., 1985; Watson et al., 1988) and eudaimonic happiness
(Waterman et al., 2010). The crowdsourced project posed the research question to independent
researchers, who separately designed studies relating moral judgments to individual happiness.
Results from Hyp 5
Hypothesis 5: Deontological judgments predict happiness. Although the original pattern of results once again directly replicated using the original materials, the hypothesis that individuals who tend to make deontological (vs. utilitarian) judgments report different levels of personal happiness was not supported overall by the crowdsourced conceptual replications. Although a statistically significant directional effect in support of H5 was reported in the Main Studies, the aggregated estimate was close to zero, and the effect did not reach statistical significance in the Replication Studies. Overall, the Bayesian analysis found strong evidence against this original prediction. There has not previously been a systematic review or metaanalysis of the relationship between moral stance and happiness, though prior research has linked both processes to emotional and intuitive responding (e.g., Everett et al., 2016; Greene, 2013; Lieberman, 2013; Phillips et al., 2017; Singer, 2005). These results fail to find support for an association between deontological moral judgments and hedonic happiness that has been suggested – although not empirically confirmed – by this prior work. Although laypeople appear to believe that part of what brings happiness is living a moral life (Phillips et al., 2017; Phillips et al., 2014), adherence to deontological vs. utilitarian ethical principles does not seem to relate to one’s overall happiness.
Conservative candidates that were male benefitted more from an attractive partner than their liberal counterparts but female candidates were penalized regardless of political ideology
Does an attractive partner make you a better leader? Only if you are a male! Ipek Kocoglu, Murad A. Mithanib. The Leadership Quarterly, December 9 2019, 101339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2019.101339
Abstract: We integrate the research on evolutionary leadership with the evolutionary psychology of mate choice to argue that a facially attractive partner signals unobservable leadership qualities of their mate, and thus, partner's attractiveness spills over to their mate's perceived leadership. Study 1 found that while partner's attractiveness enhanced the perceived leadership of male CEOs, female CEOs' leadership was downgraded in the presence of an attractive partner. Study 2 validated that the leadership penalty for female CEOs increased when they were seen with more attractive males than with less attractive males. Study 3 found that conservative candidates that were male benefitted more from an attractive partner than their liberal counterparts but female candidates were penalized regardless of political ideology. Our findings suggest that indirect cues that emanate from the partner are critical for leadership assessment. They invoke attributions that enhance the perceived leadership of males but disapprove of females as leaders.
Keywords: Facial attractivenessSpilloverEvolutionary leadershipEvolutionary psychologyMate-choice copying
Abstract: We integrate the research on evolutionary leadership with the evolutionary psychology of mate choice to argue that a facially attractive partner signals unobservable leadership qualities of their mate, and thus, partner's attractiveness spills over to their mate's perceived leadership. Study 1 found that while partner's attractiveness enhanced the perceived leadership of male CEOs, female CEOs' leadership was downgraded in the presence of an attractive partner. Study 2 validated that the leadership penalty for female CEOs increased when they were seen with more attractive males than with less attractive males. Study 3 found that conservative candidates that were male benefitted more from an attractive partner than their liberal counterparts but female candidates were penalized regardless of political ideology. Our findings suggest that indirect cues that emanate from the partner are critical for leadership assessment. They invoke attributions that enhance the perceived leadership of males but disapprove of females as leaders.
Keywords: Facial attractivenessSpilloverEvolutionary leadershipEvolutionary psychologyMate-choice copying
‘Aesthetic fidelity’ effect: The more intensive use of highly aesthetic products may lead to the acquisition of product-specific usage skills that form the basis for a cognitive lock-in
The aesthetic fidelity effect. Annika Wiecek, Daniel Wentzel, Jan R. Landwehr. International Journal of Research in Marketing, Volume 36, Issue 4, December 2019, Pages 542-557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2019.03.002
Abstract: Product aesthetics is a powerful means for achieving competitive advantage. Yet most studies to date have focused on the role of aesthetics in shaping pre-purchase preferences and have failed to consider how product aesthetics affects post-purchase processes and consumers' usage behavior. This research focuses on the relationship between aesthetics and usage behavior in the context of durable products. Studies 1A to 1C provide evidence of a positive effect of product aesthetics on usage intensity using market data from the car and the fashion industries. Study 2 corroborates these findings and shows that the more intensive use of highly aesthetic products may lead to the acquisition of product-specific usage skills that form the basis for a cognitive lock-in. Hence, consumers are less likely to switch away from products with appealing designs, an effect that is labeled as the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect. Study 3 addresses an alternative explanation for the ‘aesthetic fidelity effect’ based on mood and motivation but finds that the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect is indeed determined by usage intensity. Finally, Study 4 identifies a boundary condition of the positive effect of product aesthetics on product usage, showing that it is limited to durable products. In sum, this research demonstrates that the effects of product aesthetics extend beyond the pre-consumption stage and have an enduring impact on people's consumption experiences.
Keywords: AestheticsProduct designProduct usageConsumption intensitySkill acquisitionCognitive lock-in
1. Introduction
In many product categories, the aesthetics of a product's design is a crucial determinant of consumer choice. Consumer responses to products such as Apple's iPhone, Porsche's 911, and Vitra's Lounge Chair may not only be determined by the superior quality of these products but also by their iconic and highly aesthetic designs. Against this background, examining when and why consumers are affected by aesthetic designs has emerged as a fertile area of research. Simply put, consumers show a greater preference for products that are aesthetically appealing (Bloch, 1995; Cox & Cox, 2002; Hoegg, Alba, & Dahl, 2010; Landwehr, Wentzel, & Herrmann, 2012; Reimann, Zaichkowsky, Neuhaus, Bender, & Weber, 2010) and the appeal of a product's design is also predictive of a product's success in the marketplace (Landwehr, Labroo, & Herrmann, 2011; Landwehr, Wentzel, & Herrmann, 2013; Liu, Li, Chen, & Balachander, 2017).
However, while the effects of product aesthetics on pre-purchase preferences and consumer choice are well-documented in the literature, existing research has largely failed to consider how product aesthetics affects actual usage behavior1 (for a recent exception, see Wu, Samper, Morales, & Fitzsimons, 2017). For instance, assuming that a consumer buys an iPhone because of its appealing design, will she also use the phone on a more frequent basis to experience the aesthetic pleasure provided by the design? And how will this increased usage affect her preferences and her willingness to switch to a competitive smartphone?
In this research, we focus on durable products (i.e., products that can be used multiple times and are not destroyed during consumption) and argue that the aesthetic appeal of a product's design may be related to usage behavior and product preferences. Specifically, we postulate that consumers will use products with aesthetically appealing designs more intensively compared to products with less appealing designs. This increased usage intensity, in turn, may lead to the acquisition of product-specific usage skills (Anderson, 1983) that form the basis for a cognitive lock-in where consumers are less likely to switch away from a product they can already operate efficiently (Johnson, Bellman, & Lohse, 2003; Murray & Häubl, 2007). In sum, we argue that product designs may not only serve as a source of aesthetic pleasure but may also bond a consumer to a product by triggering greater usage intensity and efficiency, an effect we label as the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect.
In identifying the effect of product aesthetics on usage intensity, skill acquisition, and subsequent choice behavior, this research makes several important contributions to the literature. First, we show that product aesthetics affects consumers beyond the pre-consumption phase and may cause consumers to use products for longer periods of time and to become more efficient at using them. Importantly, these findings are not only supported by three controlled experiments but also by the analysis of three datasets from the car and fashion industries that provide insights into real usage behavior. Hence, this research extends the literature by showing that the link between product aesthetics and usage behavior is not only of theoretical interest but is also relevant for understanding and predicting how products are used in real life.
Second, our findings extend current theorizing on the relationship between aesthetics and usage behavior. As such, a recent study by Wu et al. (2017) found that product aesthetics may lead to reduced consumption enjoyment and may inhibit actual consumption, a finding which seems to contradict our key proposition that product aesthetics may intensify consumption. Of note, however, is the fact that Wu et al. (2017) focused on non-durable products that are typically destroyed during consumption (e.g., napkins, toilet paper). As consumers appreciate the effort that is necessary for creating beautiful products, they may lament seeing them getting destroyed during the consumption process and may thus tend to use them to a lesser extent. In our research, we build on these findings and examine the effects of product aesthetics on the usage of both durable and non-durable products. Specifically, we demonstrate that a product's durability (i.e., the extent to which a product is affected or destroyed during consumption) moderates the effect of aesthetics on usage intensity. That is, our findings show that product aesthetics intensify product usage when the product is durable in nature but inhibit product usage when the product is non-durable. Hence, our findings contribute to the literature by providing a more fine-grained analysis of the link between product aesthetics and usage behavior.
Third, we extend current theorizing on skill acquisition and the lock-in phenomenon. While existing studies have mainly focused on the process and the consequences of skill acquisition (Billeter, Kalra, & Loewenstein, 2010; Lakshmanan & Krishnan, 2011; Lakshmanan, Lindsey, & Krishnan, 2010; Murray & Häubl, 2007), there has been relatively little research on the determinants of this learning process. In this respect, our research shows that the aesthetic appeal of a product may motivate consumers to engage with a product more intensively and to develop product-specific usage skills, thus broadening our understanding of how consumers acquire skills in the marketplace.
The remainder of this article is structured as follows. In the theoretical section, we review literature streams on product aesthetics, hedonic consumption, and skill acquisition and develop our hypotheses. In the empirical section, we report the results of six studies. Studies 1A to 1C rely on the analysis of real market data from the car and fashion industries and find that products with more aesthetic designs are used for longer periods of time. Building on these findings, Studies 2 to 4 are designed as laboratory experiments. Study 2 provides further evidence for an ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect and also reveals the underlying cognitive process. Study 3 addresses a potential alternative explanation for the aesthetic fidelity effect. Finally, Study 4 identifies an important boundary condition to the positive effect of product aesthetics on product use, namely a product's durability. Last, we provide theoretical and managerial implications in the general discussion.
Abstract: Product aesthetics is a powerful means for achieving competitive advantage. Yet most studies to date have focused on the role of aesthetics in shaping pre-purchase preferences and have failed to consider how product aesthetics affects post-purchase processes and consumers' usage behavior. This research focuses on the relationship between aesthetics and usage behavior in the context of durable products. Studies 1A to 1C provide evidence of a positive effect of product aesthetics on usage intensity using market data from the car and the fashion industries. Study 2 corroborates these findings and shows that the more intensive use of highly aesthetic products may lead to the acquisition of product-specific usage skills that form the basis for a cognitive lock-in. Hence, consumers are less likely to switch away from products with appealing designs, an effect that is labeled as the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect. Study 3 addresses an alternative explanation for the ‘aesthetic fidelity effect’ based on mood and motivation but finds that the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect is indeed determined by usage intensity. Finally, Study 4 identifies a boundary condition of the positive effect of product aesthetics on product usage, showing that it is limited to durable products. In sum, this research demonstrates that the effects of product aesthetics extend beyond the pre-consumption stage and have an enduring impact on people's consumption experiences.
Keywords: AestheticsProduct designProduct usageConsumption intensitySkill acquisitionCognitive lock-in
1. Introduction
In many product categories, the aesthetics of a product's design is a crucial determinant of consumer choice. Consumer responses to products such as Apple's iPhone, Porsche's 911, and Vitra's Lounge Chair may not only be determined by the superior quality of these products but also by their iconic and highly aesthetic designs. Against this background, examining when and why consumers are affected by aesthetic designs has emerged as a fertile area of research. Simply put, consumers show a greater preference for products that are aesthetically appealing (Bloch, 1995; Cox & Cox, 2002; Hoegg, Alba, & Dahl, 2010; Landwehr, Wentzel, & Herrmann, 2012; Reimann, Zaichkowsky, Neuhaus, Bender, & Weber, 2010) and the appeal of a product's design is also predictive of a product's success in the marketplace (Landwehr, Labroo, & Herrmann, 2011; Landwehr, Wentzel, & Herrmann, 2013; Liu, Li, Chen, & Balachander, 2017).
However, while the effects of product aesthetics on pre-purchase preferences and consumer choice are well-documented in the literature, existing research has largely failed to consider how product aesthetics affects actual usage behavior1 (for a recent exception, see Wu, Samper, Morales, & Fitzsimons, 2017). For instance, assuming that a consumer buys an iPhone because of its appealing design, will she also use the phone on a more frequent basis to experience the aesthetic pleasure provided by the design? And how will this increased usage affect her preferences and her willingness to switch to a competitive smartphone?
In this research, we focus on durable products (i.e., products that can be used multiple times and are not destroyed during consumption) and argue that the aesthetic appeal of a product's design may be related to usage behavior and product preferences. Specifically, we postulate that consumers will use products with aesthetically appealing designs more intensively compared to products with less appealing designs. This increased usage intensity, in turn, may lead to the acquisition of product-specific usage skills (Anderson, 1983) that form the basis for a cognitive lock-in where consumers are less likely to switch away from a product they can already operate efficiently (Johnson, Bellman, & Lohse, 2003; Murray & Häubl, 2007). In sum, we argue that product designs may not only serve as a source of aesthetic pleasure but may also bond a consumer to a product by triggering greater usage intensity and efficiency, an effect we label as the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect.
In identifying the effect of product aesthetics on usage intensity, skill acquisition, and subsequent choice behavior, this research makes several important contributions to the literature. First, we show that product aesthetics affects consumers beyond the pre-consumption phase and may cause consumers to use products for longer periods of time and to become more efficient at using them. Importantly, these findings are not only supported by three controlled experiments but also by the analysis of three datasets from the car and fashion industries that provide insights into real usage behavior. Hence, this research extends the literature by showing that the link between product aesthetics and usage behavior is not only of theoretical interest but is also relevant for understanding and predicting how products are used in real life.
Second, our findings extend current theorizing on the relationship between aesthetics and usage behavior. As such, a recent study by Wu et al. (2017) found that product aesthetics may lead to reduced consumption enjoyment and may inhibit actual consumption, a finding which seems to contradict our key proposition that product aesthetics may intensify consumption. Of note, however, is the fact that Wu et al. (2017) focused on non-durable products that are typically destroyed during consumption (e.g., napkins, toilet paper). As consumers appreciate the effort that is necessary for creating beautiful products, they may lament seeing them getting destroyed during the consumption process and may thus tend to use them to a lesser extent. In our research, we build on these findings and examine the effects of product aesthetics on the usage of both durable and non-durable products. Specifically, we demonstrate that a product's durability (i.e., the extent to which a product is affected or destroyed during consumption) moderates the effect of aesthetics on usage intensity. That is, our findings show that product aesthetics intensify product usage when the product is durable in nature but inhibit product usage when the product is non-durable. Hence, our findings contribute to the literature by providing a more fine-grained analysis of the link between product aesthetics and usage behavior.
Third, we extend current theorizing on skill acquisition and the lock-in phenomenon. While existing studies have mainly focused on the process and the consequences of skill acquisition (Billeter, Kalra, & Loewenstein, 2010; Lakshmanan & Krishnan, 2011; Lakshmanan, Lindsey, & Krishnan, 2010; Murray & Häubl, 2007), there has been relatively little research on the determinants of this learning process. In this respect, our research shows that the aesthetic appeal of a product may motivate consumers to engage with a product more intensively and to develop product-specific usage skills, thus broadening our understanding of how consumers acquire skills in the marketplace.
The remainder of this article is structured as follows. In the theoretical section, we review literature streams on product aesthetics, hedonic consumption, and skill acquisition and develop our hypotheses. In the empirical section, we report the results of six studies. Studies 1A to 1C rely on the analysis of real market data from the car and fashion industries and find that products with more aesthetic designs are used for longer periods of time. Building on these findings, Studies 2 to 4 are designed as laboratory experiments. Study 2 provides further evidence for an ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect and also reveals the underlying cognitive process. Study 3 addresses a potential alternative explanation for the aesthetic fidelity effect. Finally, Study 4 identifies an important boundary condition to the positive effect of product aesthetics on product use, namely a product's durability. Last, we provide theoretical and managerial implications in the general discussion.
Friday, December 13, 2019
More religious individuals reported higher emotional empathy & were perceived as more empathic by others; the effect was observed specifically for other-oriented feelings of compassion & sympathy
Łowicki, P., & Zajenkowski, M. (2019). Religiousness is associated with higher empathic concern—Evidence from self- and other-ratings. Psychology of Religion and Spirituality, Dec 2019. https://doi.org/10.1037/rel0000299
Abstract: Several empirical investigations have demonstrated a positive association between religiosity and emotional empathy. However, most of these studies relied on self-report measures, and therefore were criticized for reflecting a self-delusion of believers rather than the actual relationship between the two constructs. The current research addressed this methodological limitation by conducting a simultaneous examination of both self- and other-reports on empathy and religiousness. We recruited 236 adult participants and 223 of their close acquaintances (e.g., partners, close friends, or parents). It was found that more religious individuals reported higher emotional empathy and were also perceived as more empathic by others. This effect was observed specifically for other-oriented feelings of compassion and sympathy and remained significant controlling for gender, age, and social desirability. The study contributes to the knowledge on social correlates of religiousness by demonstrating that its relationship with empathy is not spurious but possibly reflects a true phenomenon that can be observed by both participants themselves and by other people
Abstract: Several empirical investigations have demonstrated a positive association between religiosity and emotional empathy. However, most of these studies relied on self-report measures, and therefore were criticized for reflecting a self-delusion of believers rather than the actual relationship between the two constructs. The current research addressed this methodological limitation by conducting a simultaneous examination of both self- and other-reports on empathy and religiousness. We recruited 236 adult participants and 223 of their close acquaintances (e.g., partners, close friends, or parents). It was found that more religious individuals reported higher emotional empathy and were also perceived as more empathic by others. This effect was observed specifically for other-oriented feelings of compassion and sympathy and remained significant controlling for gender, age, and social desirability. The study contributes to the knowledge on social correlates of religiousness by demonstrating that its relationship with empathy is not spurious but possibly reflects a true phenomenon that can be observed by both participants themselves and by other people
Check also The Interplay Between Cognitive Intelligence, Ability Emotional Intelligence, and Religiosity. Paweł Łowicki, Marcin Zajenkowski, Dimitri Van der Linden. Journal of Religion and Health, November 2019. DOI: 10.1007/s10943-019-00953-0
Abstract: The negative association between cognitive intelligence (CI) and religiosity has been widely studied and is now well documented. In contrast, the role of emotional intelligence (EI) in this context has been poorly investigated thus far. Some available data indicate that EI, unlike CI, correlates positively with religiosity. To date, however, no study has explored the relationship between religiosity and both intelligences simultaneously. In current studies (Ns = 301 and 200), we examined the interplay between all three constructs. The results showed that CI was positively correlated with ability EI and negatively with some measures of religiosity. EI, on the other hand, revealed no direct, significant relationship with religiosity. However, when combined into a single regression model with CI, EI became a significant positive predictor of religiosity. Moreover, Study 2 revealed that the link between EI and religiosity was mediated by empathy. Interestingly, we also found a reciprocal suppression between CI and EI, since both predictors increased their influence on religiosity when analyzed together. Although the suppression was present in both studies, it was observed for different religiosity measures in each case, indicating that this effect is probably dependent on various factors, such as sample structure or type of religiosity.
Interaction, self-presentation, and entertainment on social network sites were associated with better well-being, whereas consuming their content was associated with poorer well-being
Digital Communication Media Use and Psychological Well-Being: A Meta-Analysis. Dong Liu, Roy F Baumeister, Chia-chen Yang, Baijing Hu. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, Volume 24, Issue 5, September 2019, Pages 259–273, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcmc/zmz013 > expression of concern Oct 2021 https://academic.oup.com/jcmc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jcmc/zmab018/6408679
Abstract: The puzzle of whether digital media are improving or harming psychological well-being has been plaguing researchers and the public for decades. Derived from media richness theory, this study proposed that phone calls and texting improve well-being, while use of social network sites (SNSs), instant messaging (IM), and online gaming may displace other social contacts and, thereby, impair well-being. To test this hypothesis, a meta-analysis of 124 studies was conducted. The results showed that phone calls and texting were positively correlated with well-being, whereas online gaming was negatively associated with well-being. Furthermore, the relationship between digital media use and well-being was also contingent upon the way the technology was used. A series of meta-analyses of different types of SNS use and well-being was used to elucidate this point: interaction, self-presentation, and entertainment on SNSs were associated with better well-being, whereas consuming SNSs’ content was associated with poorer well-being.
As one would assume for such a complex variable as well-being, the effects of digital communication were rather small. Three of the effects were nearly identical in size (phoning, texting, and online gaming). SNS usage had a smaller effect size, which was about the same as that of IM, but given the vastly greater number of published studies, the SNS usage effect was significant, unlike the IM effect.
Given the larger amount of data available on SNS usage, as well as the multifunctional complexity of the medium, we performed a second set of analyses that broke SNS usage down into multiple categories. The global weak effect is a bit misleading, because different SNS activities have quite different relationships to well-being (and all but one was larger than the combined overall effect). Interactions and online entertainment had significant, positive links to well-being. Self-presentation also correlated positively with well-being, but the effect was very small. The largest effect we found in our entire meta-analysis was the negative correlation between well-being and SNS content consumption.
Further analyses suggested that the global effects of SNS use (already small) may have been artificially inflated by publication biases. Meanwhile, the effects of telephone calls may have been understated by publication biases. The other effects were apparently not affected by a publication bias, nor did we find any evidence of p-hacking.
Positive links to well-being were found for the media designed for direct communication, which can include not just verbal content, but also affective communication. Phone calls allow people to talk one-to-one, and phoning is often used to connect with close relationship partners. Callers know not only what the other party says, but can also glean emotional information from the tone of voice and other cues. Although texting lacks the voice tone channel for communicating emotion, a deficit that has, to some extent, been rectified by the proliferation and widespread use of emotion symbols (emojis) and some acronyms (e.g., “lol” for “laughing out loud”), most people still use it to communicate with close relationship partners because of its privacy feature. People who use these media frequently may tend to have closer relationships than those who do not, and so their well-being is better. These results fit the stimulation hypothesis proposed by Kraut et al. (1998), which says that digital communication can strengthen social connections to important people in one’s life. As the first and most obvious example, telephone calls enable people to stay in regular contact with loved ones while traveling far from them.
IM resembles texting but typically uses a computer keyboard, so longer messages are practical. It too may be used for communicating with close others, but it may also be useful for discussions in business and research. Again, people who use it more may have more and better social bonds than other people. The size of the effect was consistent with this analysis, but it was not significant. More research is needed.
Online gaming is not something done primarily with intimate partners. It can be done as a solitary activity or in interaction with a great many people, mostly including strangers and mere acquaintances. We found a significant, negative relationship between online gaming and well-being, consistent with the displacement hypothesis. Spending considerable time playing online games may replace interacting with significant others, thereby being either a result or cause of deficiencies in close relationships.
As we noted, there were far more studies examining the effects of SNSs than any of the other digital media, in terms of well-being. Although there was an overall weak, positive effect, which indeed may have been inflated by a publication bias (so that the overall true effect may be zero), further analyses suggest the overall effect or lack thereof may be misleading. Breaking down SNS usage into different activities revealed multiple effects in different directions. Interacting with others via SNSs was positively associated with well-being, consistent with the view that digital communication can link to happiness by virtue of connecting with other people. Likewise, online entertainment was positively related to well-being. This might also reflect social bonds, insofar as people may watch entertainment with others or, at least, share favorite videos with them. To be sure, it may also be that entertainment directly enhances well-being, because entertainment is designed to be fun. If the entertainment value were the main reason for the positive correlation, however, then presumably playing games would also raise well-being but, as we saw, online gaming was negatively related to well-being.
We found a weak but still significant relationship between SNS self-presentation and well-being, such that posting more information about oneself was associated with greater happiness and self-esteem. Self-presentation is designed for social interaction, but posting content is not itself directly interactive. Still, the positive link to well-being is unsurprising. People probably post more positive than negative information about themselves, so posting more information may boost positive feelings about oneself, and people who already have positive views of themself may be more likely than others to present such information online.
In contrast to these positive effects, SNS content consumption had a negative relationship to well-being; indeed, this was the largest single effect we found. Content consumption, also known as browsing, refers to reading what other people post (but not interacting with them). It is, therefore, highly relevant to what Kraut et al. (1998) identified as displacement. The browsing individual spends time reading about other people online, and this may replace time spent actually interacting with significant other people. Moreover, as we noted, browsing may cause negative feelings because the content posted by others is positively skewed, so that social comparison will make readers feel relatively negative about their own lives (Yang, 2016).
Besides, the classifications of media types in the literature reviewed were quite coarse; even breaking SNSs into types of behavior may be insufficiently granular. The media which form the basis of the classifications could be explicitly treated as multidimensional or as composites of behavioral features. In the future, for any medium, research could ask how much interpersonal communication was occurring, how interactive the communication was, how much information about the parties was revealed, how positive the experience was, and so forth.
Last, we note that digital media usage is highly complex, and so generalizations should be tempered with the recognition of many exceptions. To conclude that “phone calls make people happy,” even if broadly correct, would mislead if it failed to acknowledge that undoubtedly many people occasionally make or receive deeply upsetting phone calls. Our effects were generally small, but the effect sizes probably reflect the mixed natures of the effects, rather than the weaknesses of the medium. That is, a weak net impact of phoning on happiness is probably a result of some calls bringing joy while a few others caused anger or sorrow. Presumably there are far more pleasant than unpleasant phone calls, but the bad ones may have stronger effects, consistent with the general pattern that negative events have more psychological impacts than positive ones (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer, & Vohs, 2001).
Abstract: The puzzle of whether digital media are improving or harming psychological well-being has been plaguing researchers and the public for decades. Derived from media richness theory, this study proposed that phone calls and texting improve well-being, while use of social network sites (SNSs), instant messaging (IM), and online gaming may displace other social contacts and, thereby, impair well-being. To test this hypothesis, a meta-analysis of 124 studies was conducted. The results showed that phone calls and texting were positively correlated with well-being, whereas online gaming was negatively associated with well-being. Furthermore, the relationship between digital media use and well-being was also contingent upon the way the technology was used. A series of meta-analyses of different types of SNS use and well-being was used to elucidate this point: interaction, self-presentation, and entertainment on SNSs were associated with better well-being, whereas consuming SNSs’ content was associated with poorer well-being.
Discussion
Our results provided some support for all three theoretical positions. Both the stimulation and displacement patterns were found, consistent with the original proposals by Kraut et al. (1998). Moreover, the patterns differed according to the digital medium, consistent with Daft and Lengel’s (1986) media richness theory. Not all results were as predicted. We begin with a summary of the findings, and then elaborate upon their theoretical implications.Main findings: Digital media and well-being
Across multiple studies, the more often people made and received telephone calls, the better their overall well-being. Texting was also positively correlated with well-being. In contrast, SNS usage and online gaming were negatively related to well-being. IM showed a weak positive correlation with well-being, but it fell short of significance, so no conclusions can be drawn. Recent literature has suggested that mobile IM is a convenient tool for people to instantly address close ties (Cui, 2016). But the literature we analyzed involved studies with traditional IM, rather than mobile messaging.As one would assume for such a complex variable as well-being, the effects of digital communication were rather small. Three of the effects were nearly identical in size (phoning, texting, and online gaming). SNS usage had a smaller effect size, which was about the same as that of IM, but given the vastly greater number of published studies, the SNS usage effect was significant, unlike the IM effect.
Given the larger amount of data available on SNS usage, as well as the multifunctional complexity of the medium, we performed a second set of analyses that broke SNS usage down into multiple categories. The global weak effect is a bit misleading, because different SNS activities have quite different relationships to well-being (and all but one was larger than the combined overall effect). Interactions and online entertainment had significant, positive links to well-being. Self-presentation also correlated positively with well-being, but the effect was very small. The largest effect we found in our entire meta-analysis was the negative correlation between well-being and SNS content consumption.
Further analyses suggested that the global effects of SNS use (already small) may have been artificially inflated by publication biases. Meanwhile, the effects of telephone calls may have been understated by publication biases. The other effects were apparently not affected by a publication bias, nor did we find any evidence of p-hacking.
Implications
Rather than drawing a sweeping conclusion that digital media are generally good or bad for well-being, our results suggest a more nuanced view. They seem most consistent with the reasoning that digital media enhance well-being when they facilitate social interactions with important relationship partners, but detract from well-being when they displace such interactions.Positive links to well-being were found for the media designed for direct communication, which can include not just verbal content, but also affective communication. Phone calls allow people to talk one-to-one, and phoning is often used to connect with close relationship partners. Callers know not only what the other party says, but can also glean emotional information from the tone of voice and other cues. Although texting lacks the voice tone channel for communicating emotion, a deficit that has, to some extent, been rectified by the proliferation and widespread use of emotion symbols (emojis) and some acronyms (e.g., “lol” for “laughing out loud”), most people still use it to communicate with close relationship partners because of its privacy feature. People who use these media frequently may tend to have closer relationships than those who do not, and so their well-being is better. These results fit the stimulation hypothesis proposed by Kraut et al. (1998), which says that digital communication can strengthen social connections to important people in one’s life. As the first and most obvious example, telephone calls enable people to stay in regular contact with loved ones while traveling far from them.
IM resembles texting but typically uses a computer keyboard, so longer messages are practical. It too may be used for communicating with close others, but it may also be useful for discussions in business and research. Again, people who use it more may have more and better social bonds than other people. The size of the effect was consistent with this analysis, but it was not significant. More research is needed.
Online gaming is not something done primarily with intimate partners. It can be done as a solitary activity or in interaction with a great many people, mostly including strangers and mere acquaintances. We found a significant, negative relationship between online gaming and well-being, consistent with the displacement hypothesis. Spending considerable time playing online games may replace interacting with significant others, thereby being either a result or cause of deficiencies in close relationships.
As we noted, there were far more studies examining the effects of SNSs than any of the other digital media, in terms of well-being. Although there was an overall weak, positive effect, which indeed may have been inflated by a publication bias (so that the overall true effect may be zero), further analyses suggest the overall effect or lack thereof may be misleading. Breaking down SNS usage into different activities revealed multiple effects in different directions. Interacting with others via SNSs was positively associated with well-being, consistent with the view that digital communication can link to happiness by virtue of connecting with other people. Likewise, online entertainment was positively related to well-being. This might also reflect social bonds, insofar as people may watch entertainment with others or, at least, share favorite videos with them. To be sure, it may also be that entertainment directly enhances well-being, because entertainment is designed to be fun. If the entertainment value were the main reason for the positive correlation, however, then presumably playing games would also raise well-being but, as we saw, online gaming was negatively related to well-being.
We found a weak but still significant relationship between SNS self-presentation and well-being, such that posting more information about oneself was associated with greater happiness and self-esteem. Self-presentation is designed for social interaction, but posting content is not itself directly interactive. Still, the positive link to well-being is unsurprising. People probably post more positive than negative information about themselves, so posting more information may boost positive feelings about oneself, and people who already have positive views of themself may be more likely than others to present such information online.
In contrast to these positive effects, SNS content consumption had a negative relationship to well-being; indeed, this was the largest single effect we found. Content consumption, also known as browsing, refers to reading what other people post (but not interacting with them). It is, therefore, highly relevant to what Kraut et al. (1998) identified as displacement. The browsing individual spends time reading about other people online, and this may replace time spent actually interacting with significant other people. Moreover, as we noted, browsing may cause negative feelings because the content posted by others is positively skewed, so that social comparison will make readers feel relatively negative about their own lives (Yang, 2016).
Limitations and future directions
As with any literature review, our conclusions were constrained by the nature of the available evidence. Most obviously, our conclusions are correlational and preclude causal inferences. Digital communication may cause changes in well-being, or different levels of well-being may cause people to change their use of digital media. It may be, as Kraut et al. (1998) hypothesized, that spending time on digital media (especially gaming and browsing) replaces meaningful interactions with significant others, thereby causing a drop in well-being. Alternatively, unhappy people may be more likely than happy ones to spend time browsing and gaming. What limited evidence is available regarding longitudinal patterns suggests bidirectional causality (e.g., Kross et al., 2013), which we think should probably be the default assumption for now. Dienlin, Masur, and Trepte (2017) suggested that the effects of digital media use may not manifest immediately, and may emerge several weeks or months later. The extreme imbalance in the literature in terms of study designs calls for more longitudinal or experimental studies in the future.Besides, the classifications of media types in the literature reviewed were quite coarse; even breaking SNSs into types of behavior may be insufficiently granular. The media which form the basis of the classifications could be explicitly treated as multidimensional or as composites of behavioral features. In the future, for any medium, research could ask how much interpersonal communication was occurring, how interactive the communication was, how much information about the parties was revealed, how positive the experience was, and so forth.
Last, we note that digital media usage is highly complex, and so generalizations should be tempered with the recognition of many exceptions. To conclude that “phone calls make people happy,” even if broadly correct, would mislead if it failed to acknowledge that undoubtedly many people occasionally make or receive deeply upsetting phone calls. Our effects were generally small, but the effect sizes probably reflect the mixed natures of the effects, rather than the weaknesses of the medium. That is, a weak net impact of phoning on happiness is probably a result of some calls bringing joy while a few others caused anger or sorrow. Presumably there are far more pleasant than unpleasant phone calls, but the bad ones may have stronger effects, consistent with the general pattern that negative events have more psychological impacts than positive ones (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer, & Vohs, 2001).
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