Sunday, November 7, 2021

We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.40% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 2 C, and a mean cost of 3.67% of GDP associated with global warming of 4 C

Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. R. Warren, C. Hope, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, D. P. Van Vuuren & K. Jenkins. Climatic Change volume 168, Article number: 24. Oct 22 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03198-7

Abstract: We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.

Discussion and conclusions

Analysis with a simple probabilistic integrated assessment model PAGE09 indicates the mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of the different scenarios and their uncertainty ranges. These are 0.29% of GDP (5–95% range 0.09–0.60%) from constraining warming to 1.5 °C with 66% probability, 0.40% of GDP (5–95% range 0.12–0.91%) from constraining it to 2 °C with 66% probability and 3.67% of GDP (5–95% range 0.64–10.77%) from allowing emissions to rise along a no-policy baseline, leading to a mean GMT rise of 4 °C in 2100. Warming associated with the NDCs allows mean global aggregate damages in 2100 to reach 1.70% of GDP (5–95% range 0.31–5.99%). The net present value of global aggregate damages for 2008–2200 is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~1.5 °C global warming (5–95% range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (5–95% range $15–140 trillion). Correspondingly, the mean net present value of avoided damages that would otherwise accrue by 2200, associated with limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 4 °C, is estimated as 543 trillion US$ (2010), as compared with 531 trillion due to limiting warming to 2 °C.

However, these damages are likely conservative because the damage functions described in Section 2.1 are based on literature published before 2009, mostly matching the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC 2007). The overall assessment of risk from climate change with global warming finds greater risks for the same level of warming than in 2009 (IPCC 20142018; Zommers et al. 2020). For example, between 2014 and 2018, the assessed levels of concern ‘increased for four of the five Reasons for Concern’ for global warming of 2 °C (IPCC 2018). Also, apart from the discontinuity sector, the damage functions in PAGE09 depend only on the climate in a particular year, so any dynamic damages, where damage accumulates due to indirect consequences of climate change in earlier years, is not yet included (Burke et al. 2015).

A further contribution to the potential for damages to be underestimated here is that damages associated with arctic feedbacks leading to the release of CO2 and CH4 from permafrost are excluded from this analysis. In parallel with our work, independent updates to the PAGE09 model were made. This includes the development of PAGE-ICE(Yumashev et al. 2019) to reflect non-linear transitions in arctic feedbacks (permafrost and albedo effect), the calibration of equilibrium climate sensitivity values to match IPCC AR5 and other earth system science models, changes in the treatment of regional cooling by sulphate aerosols, a revised carbon cycle consistent with recent literature (Joos et al. 2013) and the use of a fat-tailed distribution for sea level rise to represent possible contributions to sea level rise from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The damage functions were also upgraded in PAGE-ICE to reflect a recent macro-econometric analysis of the effect of historic temperature shocks on economic growth in multiple countries (Burke et al. 2015).

PAGE-ICE was subsequently used to estimate aggregate economic damages under different combinations of socioeconomic and climate change futures (Chen et al. 2020). Comparing the SSP2-based projections emerging from PAGE-ICE(Chen et al. 2020) vs PAGE09 reported here is interesting (Tables S4, S5, S7). At global warming of 2.5C in 2100, PAGE09 projects mean damages of 1.08% GDP (5-95% range 0.22–3.37), while PAGE-ICE projects damages of 6% GDP already at 2.7 °C (Chen et al. 2020)(Table S4). Similarly, PAGE09 estimates the mean NPV of damages in 2200 for warming of 2.5 °C at US$148 trillion (5-95% range $20–470), whereas at 2.7 °C, Chen et al. (2020) report US$569 trillion (5–95% range − 119–1722) including only damages to 2100 (Table S5). Inconsistencies notwithstanding, this represents a four-fold increase in damages comparable with the threefold increase emerging from the independent study of Hänsel et al. (2020).

The relatively small differences produced in PAGE09 between the damages associated with 1.5 rather than 2 °C global warming might be due to the PAGE09 damage function not yet well capturing the findings of IPCC (2018), and also the limited coverage of the effects of extreme weather events which will play an important role in determining aggregate damage. Nevertheless, these small increases represent a 41% increase in damages for the 2 °C scenarios with respect to the 1.5 °C scenario, increasing further to a 66% increase in Chen et al.(2020). Hence, the use of PAGE-ICE increases both the absolute damages avoided by limiting warming to lower temperatures and also increases the relative (percentage) increase.

Arent et al. (2014) review global aggregate damage estimates originating from various integrated assessment models, including various versions of FUND, DICE and PAGE and generally find aggregate damage estimates of between 1 and 3% of global GDP for global warming of 3 °C, while a more recent review (Tol 2018) finds similar values. A study with the integrated model DICE2016R2, which includes a blanket 25% uplift to damages to account for discontinuities (Nordhaus and Sztorc 2013), produces a year 2100 damage estimates of 2.0% of income at 3 °C and 7.9% of global income at a global temperature rise of 6 °C (Nordhaus 2018). This is similar to the PAGE09 mean estimate of 1.7% income at 3C warming (Table S1). It should be noted that the calibration of DICE2016R2 included output from PAGE09 as one of its calibration points (Nordhaus 2018), while an uncertainty analysis performed with DICE2016R2’s baseline scenario yielded damage ranges (within one standard deviation) of approximately 1.5–6% GDP for warming of 3.3–4.8 °C (see Fig. 7A, B in Nordhaus 2018).

More recently, further updates were made to the DICE2016R2 model (Hänsel et al. 2020), including changes to the carbon cycle, making it consistent with the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C warming (Rogelj et al. 2018), a recalibration to update the treatment of energy balance, the use of emerging literature to recalibrate the temperature-damage relationship, use of an exogenous pathway for non-CO2 forcing, the availability of negative emission technologies and the technologically feasible speed of decarbonisation. The utilised damage-temperature relationship (Howard and Sterner 2017) indicates damages of 6.69% of global GDP for a 3 °C global temperature rise while noting that there is empirical evidence for even larger damages (Burke et al. 2015)—increasing the damages by a factor of 3. DICE2016R2 now finds an optimal limit to global warming of 1.77 °C in 2100, producing a mean social cost of carbon dioxide in 2020 of 119US$/tCO2 (including all model updates) (Table S6) as compared with mean values of 30–43 $/tCO2 for 1.5–2 °C warming in 2100 here (Table 5 and Table S6), representing an approximately three-fold increase.

Both these comparisons indicate how recent updates in the understanding of the earth’s climate system and in the observation and projection of risks associated with global warming have had a profound effect on the estimates of associated economic damages. Updates to integrated assessment models have often lagged behind increases in scientific understanding, leading to these damages being underestimated in the past, as noted previously (Warren et al. 2006; Warren et al. 2010; Van Vuuren et al. 2011).

While Hänsel et al. (2020) and Chen et al. (2020) address many of the issues raised in those earlier publications, neither PAGE09 nor PAGE-ICE ‘explicitly model other known climatic tipping elements such as Amazon rainforest, boreal forest, coral reefs and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as ocean acidification and climate-induced large-scale migration and conflict’ (Yumashev et al. 2019), while Hänsel et al. 2020 note that excluded factors include ‘tipping points, relative scarcity of non-market goods, and climate-induced migration’. Projected risks to biodiversity will interact, via loss of ecosystem services, with the projected risks estimated here, creating a risk cascade (Warren 2011). Such systemic linkages, and their consequences, are difficult to quantify. Hence, the projections provided here are likely conservative and in particular will not reflect the findings of IPCC (2018), which outline important reductions in climate change damages associated with limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C, for example, in terms of reduced damages on ecosystems, terrestrial and marine biodiversity and ocean acidification. This, together with ongoing improvements of understanding of climate change science and climate change-related risks, means that estimates of aggregate economic damages associated with climate change inevitably continue to fall short of a complete representation within integrated assessment models, and hence, even these latest projections probably still lead to underestimates of global aggregate economic damage associated with climate change that would be expected to actually occur.

Saturday, November 6, 2021

Using hand-collected data on birthplaces of US-born CEOs, we provide robust evidence that CEOs born in frontier counties with a higher level of individualistic culture promote innovation performance

Gao, Lei and Han, Jianlei and Pan, Zheyao and Zhang, Huixuan, Individualistic CEO and Corporate Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Frontier Culture (October 27, 2021). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3950964

Abstract: This paper examines the relation between CEO’s individualistic cultural background and corporate innovation. Using hand-collected data on birthplaces of US-born CEOs, we provide robust evidence that CEOs born in frontier counties with a higher level of individualistic culture promote innovation performance. Firms led by such CEOs increase both quantity and quality of innovation outputs, measured by the number of patents, citation-weighted patents and the market value of patents. Besides innovation performance, we further show that CEO’s individualistic background causes a change in the innovation style, leading the firm to focus more on breakthrough innovation. Our extended analysis suggests that CEOs’ individualistic background promotes corporate innovation through building an innovation-orientated corporate culture and accumulating human capital by increasing the inflow of inventors.

Keywords: Innovation; Culture; Individualism; Frontier History

JEL Classification: G30; O31; O32; M14; N9


Therapists play a crucial role in cocreating new adaptive meanings and expectations that mobilize clients toward an increased sense of agency and mastery; these tasks depend on the persuasive, partially placebo, power of the psychotherapist

Vaz, A., & Sousa, D. (2021). Persuasiveness: An underappreciated characteristic of effective therapists. Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice, Nov 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/cns0000309

Abstract: Psychotherapy has been conceptualized as a process of social influence (Frank & Frank, 1991; Wampold, 2018). Therapists play a crucial role in cocreating new adaptive meanings and expectations that mobilize clients toward an increased sense of agency and mastery. We argue that these tasks depend on the persuasive power of the psychotherapist. The goal of this article is to provide a brief overview on the literature and research on therapist’s persuasiveness and theoretical contributions for future directions. We define therapist’s persuasiveness as the major verbal and nonverbal therapist skills that facilitate positive treatment expectations and credibility. Accumulated research on the placebo effect, client’s expectancies, charisma, and therapist’s interpersonal skills gives new empirical depth to the construct of therapeutic persuasiveness. In light of these findings, we discuss implications and provide recommendations for therapist training and future research.

Persuasiveness: An underappreciated characteristic of effective therapists


Children’s intelligence relative to their peers remains associated with social class, but the association may have weakened recently, mainly because the average intelligence in the highest-status classes may have moved closer to the mean

Filial Intelligence and Family Social Class, 1947 to 2012. Lindsay Paterson. Sociological Science October 20, 2021. DOI 10.15195/v8.a16

Abstract: Intelligence, or cognitive ability, is a key variable in reproducing social inequality. On the one hand, it is associated with the social class in which a child grows up. On the other, it is a predictor of educational attainment, labor-market experiences, social mobility, health and well-being, and length of life. Therefore measured intelligence is important to our understanding of how inequality operates and is reproduced. The present analysis uses social surveys of children aged 10 to 11 years in Britain between 1947 and 2012 to assess whether the social-class distribution of intelligence has changed. The main conclusions are that, although children’s intelligence relative to their peers remains associated with social class, the association may have weakened recently, mainly because the average intelligence in the highest-status classes may have moved closer to the mean.


Memories of fiction can be considered similar to other forms of autobiographical remembering thanks to their unique property of being able to be repeatedly reexperienced in their original form

Yang, B. W., Deffler, S. A., & Marsh, E. J. (2021). A comparison of memories of fiction and autobiographical memories. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, Nov 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001125

Abstract: People consume, remember, and discuss not only memories of lived experiences, but also events from works of fiction, such as books, movies, and TV shows. We argue that these memories of fiction represent an important category of event memory, best understood within an autobiographical memory framework. How do fictional events yield psychological realities even when they are known to be invented? We explored this question in three studies by comparing the memory content, phenomenological qualities, and functional roles of naturally occurring personal memories to memories of fiction. In Studies 1 and 2, we characterized the subjective experience of memories of fiction by adapting established measures of autobiographical remembering, such as the Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire (Rubin et al., 2003), Centrality of Event Scale (Berntsen & Rubin, 2006), and items from the Thinking About Life Experiences Scale (Bluck et al., 2005; Pillemer et al., 2015). In Study 3, we investigated similarities and differences in personal memories and memories of fiction for events from childhood or the recent past. In doing so, we observed the impact of a unique property of memories of fiction: their ability to be repeatedly reexperienced in their original form. Taken together, we argue that memories of fiction can be considered similar to other forms of autobiographical remembering and describe a theoretical framework for understanding memories of fiction in the context of other event memories. 


Providing slides to students impacts negatively on their academic performance; & adversely impacts on free attendance to class

Impact of the provision of PowerPoint slides on learning. Samuel P. León, Inmaculada García-Martínez. Computers & Education, Volume 173, November 2021, 104283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2021.104283

Highlights

• First within-subject study design to analyse this topic.

• Providing slides to students impacts negatively on their academic performance.

• The slide availability adversely impacts on the students' free attendance to class.

• Students' academic engagement and study strategies modulated student performance.

• The slides are a supplement created by teachers for teaching.

Abstract: PowerPoint is a basic tool for university teaching. Teachers use it extensively for presenting material. At times, it is used as a guide for organizing lessons, at other times it is used with the intention of summarizing essential curricular content. The way in which PowerPoint is used and the form it takes differs between faculties. The present article aims to evaluate the impact of the provision of slides on student academic performance and attendance (regardless of test scores). For this purpose, a quasi-experimental study was carried out with two intrasubject manipulated learning situations in which copies of slides created by teachers were, or were not, made available to students prior to class sessions. Additionally, student academic engagement and study strategies were assessed using two scales in order to analyse whether these variables modified the relationship between access to slides and academic performance. Outcomes revealed that access to slides developed by teachers had a negative impact on student performance and attendance to classes. Student academic engagement and study strategies were found to modify the relationship between academic performance and access to slides.

Keywords: PowerPointAccess to learningEngagementInstructor-provided slides


Friday, November 5, 2021

Resilients maintained higher levels of mental health and recovered faster when faced with specific adversities (unemployment, disability, divorce, and widowhood)

Unraveling Resilience: Personality Predicts Exposure and Reaction to Stressful Life Events. Eva Asselmann, Theo A. Klimstra, Jaap J. A. Denissen. Personality Science, 2021, Vol. 2, Article e6055, Nov 4 2021, https://doi.org/10.5964/ps.6055

Abstract: Resilience is a key construct in psychology, which describes the maintenance of comparatively good mental health despite of environmental adversities or successful recovery from such adversities. Furthermore, it labels a specific personality type, characterized by high levels across the Big Five. However, whether the resilient type predicts less unfavorable mental health changes around environmental adversities remains unresolved. In a nationally representative sample from the Netherlands (LISS panel, N = 12,551), we longitudinally examined whether changes of internalizing symptoms around four stressful life events (unemployment, disability, divorce, and widowhood) differed between resilients and non-resilients. Internalizing symptoms increased before but decreased after each event, indicating recovery. Compared to non-resilients, resilients experienced a weaker symptom increase before the onset of unemployment and a stronger symptom rebound after the onset of disability. Thus, resilients maintained higher levels of mental health and recovered faster when faced with specific adversities, which underscores the importance of personality types in resilience.

Keywords: Big Five, personality type, longitudinal, adjustment, mental health, psychopathology, internalizing, substance use.


News producers’ incentive to invest in news quality increases with the private knowledge of the topic; hence, when information is most needed, the generated news tends to be of lesser quality; & competition does not necessarily improve news quality

Four Things Nobody Tells you About Online News: a Model for the New News Market. Melika Liporace. Bocconi University, October 2021. https://melikaliporace.github.io/research/Liporace_OnlineNewsMarket.pdf

Abstract: Social media create a new type of incentives for news producers. Consumers share content, influence the visibility of articles and determine the advertisement revenues ensuing. I study the new incentives created by sharing and evaluate the potential quality of ad-funded online news. Producers rely on a subset of rational and unbiased consumers to spread news articles. The resulting news has low precision and ambiguous welfare effects. Producers’ incentive to invest in news quality increases with the private knowledge of the topic; hence, when information is most needed, the generated news tends to be of lesser quality. Competition does not necessarily improve news quality – it does so only if the sharing network is sufficiently dense. While ad-funded online news occasionally helps consumers take better decisions, it creates welfare mostly through entertainment. Some interventions, such as flagging wrong articles, substantially improve the outcome; other approaches, such as quality certification, do not.

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The tragedy of journalists and editors...

Thursday, November 4, 2021

Four patterns of dark personalities: The troublemaker, the self-absorbed, the manipulator, and the exploiter

Into the heart of darkness: A person-centered exploration of the Dark Triad. Matthew J.W.McLarnon. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 186, Part A, February 2022, 111354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.111354

Highlights

• Past person-centered Dark Triad research has mostly found ordered profiles.

• This study uses advanced factor analyses to identify an optimal measurement model.

• Person-centered analyses using optimal factor scores show profiles that are unique.

• Thus, person-centered approaches may be viable for continuing Dark Triad research.

• Future research should, however, use advanced factor models of the Dark Triad.

Abstract: Previous research has sought to leverage person-centered methods (i.e., latent profile analysis; LPA) to examine the Dark Triad, which has aimed to illuminate subgroups of individuals who demonstrate distinct patterns of the Dark Triad variables. However, past research has predominantly concluded that variable-centered analyses may be better suited for the Dark Triad. Yet, other research has described how advanced factor analyses can more comprehensively identify the complex and nuanced multidimensionality and sources of variance underlying the Dark Triad. This study applies these modern factor analysis methods, namely bifactor exploratory structural equation modeling (B-ESEM), which subsequently facilitates the more effective extraction of unique, configurationally-distinct profiles of the Dark Triad. In particular, across two large datasets (n = 13,271 and 1042), results showed evidence for four distinct profiles and highlight relations with several theoretically interesting covariates, thereby providing evidence of construct validity of the Dark Triad profiles. Person-centered approaches may, therefore, be viable for future Dark Triad research. However, it is recommended that factor scores from the B-ESEM, if identified as optimal, be used as input for the person-centered analyses.


Sin good purchases are highly concentrated with 10% of households paying more than 80% of taxes on alcohol and cigarettes; the two most taxed clusters comprise 8% of households, pay 68% of sin taxes, are older, less educated, and lower income

 Who Pays Sin Taxes? Understanding the Overlapping Burdens of Corrective Taxes. Christopher Conlon, Nirupama L. Rao & Yinan Wang. NBER Working Paper 29393, October 2021. https://www.nber.org/papers/w29393

Abstract: We find that sin good purchases are highly concentrated with 10% of households paying more than 80% of taxes on alcohol and cigarettes. Total sin tax burdens are poorly explained by demographics (including income), but are well explained by eight household clusters defined by purchasing patterns. The two most taxed clusters comprise 8% of households, pay 68% of sin taxes, are older, less educated, and lower income. Taxes on sugary beverages broaden the tax base but add to the burdens of heavily taxed households. Efforts to increase sin taxes should consider the heavy burdens borne by few households. 



Men with larger neck musculature are rated as stronger, more masculine, and higher in fighting ability and short-term attractiveness

Caton, Neil R., and David M. G. Lewis. 2021. “Intersexual and Intrasexual Selection for Neck Musculature in Men: Attractiveness, Dominance, and Actual Fighting Success.” PsyArXiv. November 3. doi:10.31234/osf.io/yez3t.   

Abstract: Countless organisms are equipped with physiological armor that reduce damage from opponents. Because humans have sustained a long evolutionary history of hand-to-hand combat, selection would have been placed on morphological structures which reduce rotational acceleration to the head and increase the likelihood of victory. Grounded in over 60 years of sports performance theory and recent theoretical work in evolutionary biology, geometric morphometric analyses revealed that larger neck musculature in professional combatants (N = 715) was associated with greater real-world fighting success, after for adjusting for allometry (Study 1). Because sexual dimorphism emerges from selection on morphological structures that improve men’s fighting success, we then discovered that the human neck is the most sexually dimorphic feature of human anatomy when compared to 91 other anatomical features (N = 6,068; Study 2). This male-biased sexual dimorphism held after controlling for these 91 allometric measurements, and held across every world region (Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and North, Central, and South America). Because human psychological systems consequently evolved to attend to men’s secondary sexual characteristics, we discovered that men (N = 564 stimuli) with larger neck musculature (Study 3: geometric morphometrics; Study 4: physiological neck strength; Study 5: photorealistic stimuli) are rated (N = 772 raters) as stronger, more masculine, and higher in fighting ability and short-term attractiveness, after accounting for allometry. Combined, our research introduced a new secondary sexual characteristic to the biological, anthropological, and psychological sciences: the human neck.


Despite chimpanzee mothers continuing to care for and transport dead infants for days, weeks, or even longer, chimpanzees find the smell of decaying corpses aversive

Putrescine-- a chemical cue of death—is aversive to chimpanzees. James R. Anderson, Hanling Yeow, Satoshi Hirata. Behavioural Processes, November 3 2021, 104538. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.beproc.2021.104538

Highlights

• In chimpanzees and other primates, mothers often carry their dead infants.

• It is unclear whether chimpanzees find the smell from decaying corpses aversive.

• We presented chimpanzees with a dead bird, a glove, and putrescine, ammonia, or water.

• Chimpanzees showed most avoidance in the putrescine condition.

• The odour of putrescine—associated with decaying corpses—is aversive to chimpanzees.

Abstract: As in many other species of nonhuman primates, chimpanzee mothers with a dead infant may continue to care for and transport the infant for days, weeks, or even longer. The bereaved females do this despite what humans perceive as the foul odour from the putrefying corpse. Putrescine is a major contributor to the “smell of death,” and it elicits behaviours aimed at getting rid of the source of the smell, or escape responses in mammals including humans. However, it has never been shown that the odour of putrescine is aversive to chimpanzees. To address this question, we visually presented six adult chimpanzees with the corpse of a small bird, or a stuffed glove, in association with putrescine, ammonia, or water, and recorded the chimpanzees’ reactions. The apes spent significantly less time near the object when it was paired with putrescine than the other substances, although they showed no signs of increased arousal or anxiety. We interpret the findings as evidence of an aversion to the smell of death in chimpanzees, discuss the implications for understanding the continued maternal-like behaviour of bereaved female chimpanzees, and suggest future research directions for the field of comparative evolutionary thanatology.

Keywords: death, mother-infant bond, olfactionPan troglodtyesthanatology


Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Whereas conscientiousness was more strongly associated with academic than job performance, extraversion & neuroticism were less strongly associated with academic performance

Big five personality traits and performance: A quantitative synthesis of 50+ meta-analyses. Ethan Zell,Tara L. Lesick. Journal of Personality, October 23 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12683

Abstract

Objective: The connection between personality traits and performance has fascinated scholars in a variety of disciplines for over a century. The present research synthesizes results from 54 meta-analyses (k = 2028, N = 554,778) to examine the association of Big Five traits with overall performance.

Method: Quantitative aggregation procedures were used to assess the association of Big Five traits with performance, both overall and in specific performance categories.

Results: Whereas conscientiousness yielded the strongest effect (ρ = 0.19), the remaining Big Five traits yielded comparable effects (ρ = 0.10, 0.10, −0.12, and 0.13 for extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, and openness). These associations varied dramatically by performance category. Whereas conscientiousness was more strongly associated with academic than job performance (0.28 vs 0.20), extraversion (−0.01 vs 0.14) and neuroticism (−0.03 vs −0.15) were less strongly associated with academic performance. Finally, associations of personality with specific performance outcomes largely replicated across independent meta-analyses.

Conclusions: Our comprehensive synthesis demonstrates that Big Five traits have robust associations with performance and documents how these associations fluctuate across personality and performance dimensions.


Sexual desire functions as a mechanism encouraging investment in partners who are perceived to be worth pursuing and retaining

Sexual Desire Mediates the Relationship-Promoting Effects of Perceived Partner Mate Value. Gurit E. Birnbaum, Yaniv Kanat-Maymon, Erica B. Slotter & Laura B. Luchies. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Nov 2 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02060-2

Abstract: Although sexual desire for one's partner is theorized to serve as a gut-level indicator of partner mate value that motivates investment in valued partners, there is scant empirical evidence to support this hypothesis. Five studies addressed this possibility, examining whether experiencing sexual desire encouraged the enactment of relationship-promoting behaviors and whether perceptions of partner mate value motivated this proposed process. In a pilot study and Study 1, participants relived an activity they experienced with their partner, which was either sexual or non-sexual. Then, participants rated their desire to engage in sex and other non-sexual relationship-promoting activities with their partner (pilot study) and their partner's responsiveness to personal disclosures. Participants’ enacted responsiveness was also evaluated by judges (Study 1). Results showed that experiences of desire enhanced relationship-promoting tendencies. Using experimental, daily experiences, and longitudinal methods, Studies 2–4 extended these findings, indicating that both manipulated and perceived partner mate value predicted desire, which, in turn, was associated with engagement in relationship-promoting behaviors. These findings demonstrate that sexual desire functions as a mechanism encouraging investment in partners who are perceived to be worth pursuing and retaining.


Blacks and Hispanics are significantly less likely than whites to describe themselves as “anti-racist,” and only the “very liberal” are more likely than other political orientations to identify with the label

Who Identifies as Anti-Racist? Racial Identity, Color-Blindness, and Generic Liberalism. Samuel L. Perry, Kenneth E. Frantz, Joshua B. Grubbs. Socius, November 2, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231211052945

Abstract: Although decades old, the terms “anti-racism/antiracism” and “anti-racist/antiracist” have grown in usage by scholars, authors, and activists to convey the necessity of active opposition to racial injustice. But as the terms have become more mainstream, researchers have yet to examine the social and ideological correlates of actually describing oneself as “anti-racist.” Drawing on nationally representative survey data fielded at the height of national interest in “antiracist/anti-racist” language, the authors find that Blacks and Hispanics are significantly less likely than whites to describe themselves as “anti-racist,” and only the “very liberal” are more likely than other political orientations to identify with the label. Considering ideological correlates, progressive racial ideology is the strongest predictor of identifying as “anti-racist.” However, the second strongest correlate is describing oneself as “color-blind.” Analyses of quadratic terms suggests that this correlation is curvilinear for nonwhites but more linear for whites. Although originally conveying more radical and subversive ideals, those currently most likely to self-describe as “anti-racist” are white progressives with what we call “generically liberal” racial views.

Keywords: antiracist, antiracism, whiteness, color-blindness, liberals

Although the past decade has witnessed a traceable explosion of interest in “anti-racism/antiracism” or “anti-racist/antiracist” language coinciding with the proliferation of anti-racist books, campaigns, and curricula, social scientists had yet to examine the social and ideological correlates and antecedents of actually identifying with the label “anti-racist.” Using nationally representative data fielded at the height of interest in anti-racist/anti-racism terms, we find that whites are the group most likely to identify with the label, as opposed to Blacks or Hispanics. Moreover, only the “very liberal” were more likely than other Americans to identify with the term. But although progressive racial views are strongly associated with self-describing as “anti-racist,” among the strongest predictors was also identifying as “‘colorblind’ when it comes to race.” In fact, color-blindness was an even stronger predictor of identifying as “anti-racist” than willingness to confront a racist friend or a rejection of old-fashioned racism. When we analyzed nonlinearity with quadratic terms, we found that the association between color-blindness and identifying as “anti-racist” was curvilinear for nonwhites (those who strongly reject or strongly affirm color-blindness are more likely to self-describe as “anti-racist”) yet still largely linear and positive for whites. Our findings thus paint a picture of progressive whites (not minorities) self-describing as “anti-racist,” particularly those characterized by a more “generic liberalism” on racial issues (i.e., a liberalism that affirms any racial attitudes that seem liberal, rather than explicitly race critical or radical).

Findings from this study extend our understanding of the current racial landscape in the United States in several key ways. First, they fill an important gap in showing that as “anti-racism” and “anti-racist” language has proliferated in the past decade (see Figures 1 and 2), there is evidence that white Americans (the targets of anti-racist books, campaigns, and curricula) are indeed the ones heeding the call. However, there is less evidence that such efforts are either influencing critically engaged whites or attracting them. Rather the whites who self-describe as “anti-racist” may be more likely to self-identify as “very liberal,” but their liberalism is of a more generic variety. They support progressive racial policies (on surveys), oppose old-fashioned racism, and would confront a friend who told a racist joke. Yet they are also strongly more likely than other Americans to identify with color-blindness, suggesting that such Americans, characterized by what we call “generic liberalism,” simply affirm any views that sound racially progressive. Although color-blindness is most often contrasted with anti-racist ideals and praxis as antagonists (e.g., Bonilla-Silva 2018Mueller 2020), white Americans who affirm an “anti-racist” identity may simply see color-blindness as an ideal they wish to affirm rather than a construct that critical race or whiteness scholars identify as problematic and insufficient to address racial injustice.

Another key finding that became apparent when trends were plotted out is that Americans on the whole—even those who rejected progressive racial views, would not confront a racist friend, or held old-fashioned racist views—would describe themselves as “anti-racist.” Perhaps even more than the connection with color-blindness, this suggests that most Americans, even those who hold racist views, want to reject identification with overt racism or explicit racists. Thus, the term “anti-racist” may ultimately lend itself to being co-opted by whites who simply wish to maintain a view of themselves as decent people. To be sure, it may be possible that respondents were reading “anti-racist” as simply someone who is against racism. (In that case, who would not be against racists or racism in general?) Yet the fact that Black and Hispanic respondents, who would almost certainly be against racists or racism, were less likely than whites to describe themselves as “anti-racist” suggests that the terminology did in fact resonate in ways that we would predict if respondents were somewhat aware of how the language has been deployed in popular culture, books, campaigns, and curricula.

Unlike Croll’s (2007) analysis, which demonstrated that white racial identity was associated with more conservative and more progressive racial attitudes in a U-shaped fashion, we found that nonwhites who either strongly rejected or strongly affirmed color-blind identity were more likely to identify as “anti-racist.” This pattern suggests that the survey is capturing different ways of relating to “anti-racist” identity for nonwhites. There are some who fully embrace the more race-critical and subversive implications of anti-racist identity and thus reject color-blindness as insufficient and antithetical to racial justice. And there are others who (like whites) affirm color-blindness as they also affirm anti-racist identity, reflecting a more generically liberal interpretation of the latter. Future studies should further explore this dynamic with large enough sample sizes of nonwhites to sufficiently disaggregate racial categories to discern different patterns for Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and perhaps other nonwhite racial groups as well.

On the topic of future studies, several limitations of this study are worth addressing to chart a path for future research. First, as acknowledged earlier, concepts such as “anti-racist” and “color-blind” can be vague depending on each respondent’s level of familiarity with thinking and literature on racial issues. Future studies would ideally incorporate qualitative interview data that would allow research participants to unpack such concepts in their own words and analyze patterns of meaning both within and across racial and ethnic groups.

Second, though the survey placed “anti-racist” in quotation marks to indicate an identity or label rather than a general disposition (someone who dislikes racists), and authors still frequently use the hyphenated term “anti-racist” (e.g., Jewell 2020Oluo 2019), Figure 1 shows that the term that has grown the most in usage over the past decade is “antiracist” without the hyphen. This may more aptly convey the idea of a formal identity (see Bonilla-Silva 2018 or Kendi 2019). Future surveys on this topic should thus use the unhyphenated version to test for a difference.

Third, the survey did not ask about respondents’ level of exposure to anti-racist books, campaigns, or curricula where they would learn how the language of “anti-racism” or “color-blindness” is often used in such circles. Although we did take educational attainment into account, future studies would ideally include more pointed measures inquiring about Americans’ relative exposure to race literature.

Finally, one potential limitation has to do with the unique timing of the survey, just before a presidential election and during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Racial rhetoric and attitudes were already intensified following George Floyd’s murder in May 2020 (Williams 2021), and these tensions could have potentially been exacerbated or uniquely shaped because of a racially polarizing election and collective anxiety over the pandemic, which studies have also shown was interpreted through a racial lens (Perry 2022Perry et al. 2021). Thus, future studies in years ahead may uncover somewhat different effects simply by the timing.

In this same vein, it is worth speculating about the future of “anti-racist/antiracist” language and identity as the growth of such writing, campaigns, and curricula continues. On one hand, studies have shown that there has been some white backlash to anti-racist movements such as Black Lives Matter since the summer of 2020 (Williams 2021), suggesting that the initial momentum that compelled liberal whites to embrace anti-racist ideals and praxis may have either faded in response to Joe Biden’s election or because even liberal whites began to feel uncomfortable with the slogans of “abolish the police” or “reparations” (Crabtree 2020Johnson 2020Pew Research Center 2020). Thus, data that might track identification with anti-racism/antiracism over time might find a peak in 2020, followed by an ebb like we document in Figure 2. Another possibility is that the term “anti-racist/antiracist” simply takes on the color-blind liberalism of white Americans and essentially becomes the same as being “nonracist” (Bonilla-Silva 2018:15). Ultimately, data tracking such trends are necessary to map identification with these terms onto current events over time.

Individuals can purposely change their vocal behaviour in attempt to sound more attractive and to facilitate courtship success; women do better at this

Vocal modulation in human mating and competition. Susan M. Hughes and David A. Puts. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. November 1 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0388

Abstract: The human voice is dynamic, and people modulate their voices across different social interactions. This article presents a review of the literature examining natural vocal modulation in social contexts relevant to human mating and intrasexual competition. Altering acoustic parameters during speech, particularly pitch, in response to mating and competitive contexts can influence social perception and indicate certain qualities of the speaker. For instance, a lowered voice pitch is often used to exert dominance, display status and compete with rivals. Changes in voice can also serve as a salient medium for signalling a person's attraction to another, and there is evidence to support the notion that attraction and/or romantic interest can be distinguished through vocal tones alone. Individuals can purposely change their vocal behaviour in attempt to sound more attractive and to facilitate courtship success. Several findings also point to the effectiveness of vocal change as a mechanism for communicating relationship status. As future studies continue to explore vocal modulation in the arena of human mating, we will gain a better understanding of how and why vocal modulation varies across social contexts and its impact on receiver psychology.


Conscientious individuals were more likely to maintain social distance and less likely to contract COVID-19; Agreeable individuals were more likely to comply with social distancing requirements yet more likely to contract COVID-19

Personality and early susceptibility to COVID-19 in the United Kingdom, Satoshi Kanazawa. Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology, October 27 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/casp.2578

Abstract: This paper takes advantage of a unique dataset with a prospectively longitudinal, nationally representative sample (n = 5,178) that began in 1958 and has information on COVID-19 health status in 2020 to examine the effect of Big Five personality traits on compliance with social distancing requirements and contraction of COVID-19. The results show some consistency with epidemiological recommendations (Conscientious individuals were more likely to maintain social distance and less likely to contract COVID-19; men were less likely to comply and more likely to contract) but more inconsistency (Agreeable individuals were more likely to comply with social distancing requirements yet more likely to contract COVID-19; Open and Neurotic individuals were no less likely to comply yet more likely to contract COVID-19). The results highlight the importance of Big Five personality factors for behaviour in the global pandemic and may call into question the universal effectiveness of social distancing requirements for all individuals. However, the small number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the early months of the pandemic requires caution in interpretation of the results. 

3 DISCUSSION

To the best of my knowledge, this is the first study to examine the effect of Big Five personality factors on the actual contraction of COVID-19, rather than compliance with various government mandates (social distancing, handwashing, etc.) or attitudes towards COVID-19. It is also the first study of personality and COVID-19 conducted in the United Kingdom. Taking advantage of an ongoing, prospectively longitudinal study with a large, nationally representative sample in the United Kingdom, with information on the respondents for their entire lives (62 years), I examined the association between Big Five personality factors (measured 11 years prior) and compliance with the government mandate on social distancing as well as actual COVID-19 health status and symptoms.

The analyses of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) data replicated earlier findings on the positive effect of Conscientiousness and Agreeableness on compliance (Abdelrahman, in press; Blagov, 2021; de F Carvalho et al., 2020; Götz et al., 2021; Zajenkowski et al., 2020), but did not replicate the earlier findings of a positive effect of Neuroticism (Abdelrahman, in press; Blagov, 2021; Götz et al., 2021) or a negative effect of Extraversion (de F Carvalho et al., 2020; Götz et al., 2021). In fact, Extraversion was the only Big Five factor that was not significantly associated with any of the dependent measures examined here.

Just as any study that uses a longitudinal cohort dataset, sample attrition and selection bias are potential problems in the current study. For example, NCDS respondents who participated in the May 2020 COVID-19 survey were healthier at Sweep 9 in 2013 than those who did not. On self-perceived health (1 = poor, 2 = fair, 3 = average, 4 = good, 5 = excellent), 4.4% of those who participated in the 2020 survey rated themselves “excellent” compared with 3.6% of those who did not, and .9% of those who participated in the 2020 survey rated themselves as “poor” compared with 2.9% of those who did not. The mean self-perceived health was significantly higher among the 2020 participants than non-participants (3.51 vs. 3.16, t = −15.848, p < .001). Thus, it is possible that some of the Sweep 9 participants who did not participate in the COVID-19 survey may have suffered (or even died) from COVID-19. However, this particular problem is not specific to the COVID-19 survey. NCDS respondents who participated in Sweep 9 survey in 2013 were healthier at Sweep 8 in 2009 than those who did not, and the difference was greater in 2013, when there was no global pandemic; 18.4% of those who participated in Sweep 9 rated their health “excellent” compared with 1.0% of those who did not, and the mean self-perceived health was significantly higher among the Sweep 9 participants than non-participants (3.53 vs. 3.16, t = −11.537, p < .001). So non-random sample attrition by health appears to be constant and not specific to the times of global pandemics. However, the fact that the NCDS sample consists entirely of a single age group (age 62 in 2020) may potentially limit the generalizability of my findings to younger or older populations.

Perhaps the most striking finding in the analyses presented above was that many of them were seemingly inconsistent with the public health recommendations from epidemiologists and the legal requirements imposed by the government throughout the world (including the United Kingdom). Citizens in all nations were and still are required to maintain social distance in order to prevent the spread of the coronavirus and reduce the risk of infection. Some of the results above were consistent with this recommendation and requirement. More Conscientious individuals were more likely to comply with the requirement to maintain social distance, and they were less likely to contract COVID-19 and suffer from fewer COVID-19 symptoms. Similarly, men were significantly less likely to comply and significantly more likely to contract (albeit with no more symptoms). In sharp contrast, however, more Agreeable individuals were more likely to comply with social distancing requirements yet at the same time more likely to contract COVID-19 and suffer from a larger number of COVID-19 symptoms. In addition, more Open and more Neurotic individuals were no less likely to comply with the social distancing requirements, yet they were more likely to contract COVID-19 and suffer from a larger number of COVID-19 symptoms. The results suggested that the public health recommendations may not be universally effective for all individuals at all times and may instead need to be tailored for different individuals of varied personality types.

However, the very small number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the NCDS data (n = 19; .4%) during the early months of the pandemic in May 2020 (although the total of “confirmed” and “medically advised” cases was much larger; n = 296, 5.7%) requires caution in interpreting the results of the current analyses. More research and attempts at replication are clearly necessary to examine the effect of personality factors on COVID-19 contraction further, particularly in later months of the pandemic, to capture a larger number of confirmed cases in a nationally representative sample. Towards this end, CLS began Wave 2 of the COVID-19 survey in September 2020, and Wave 3 in January 2021.

Compared to heterosexuals, lesbians were more likely to report having sex 0–1 times per month & were less likely to report having sex greater than once per month; the authors reject the label “lesbian bed death”

Debunking Lesbian Bed Death: Using Coarsened Exact Matching to Compare Sexual Practices and Satisfaction of Lesbian and Heterosexual Women. David A. Frederick, Brian Joseph Gillespie, Janet Lever, Vincent Berardi & Justin R. Garcia. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Nov 1 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02096-4

Abstract: The current study examined the prevalence and correlates of over 50 sexual practices in a national survey of heterosexual and lesbian women in relationships. Coarsened exact matching was used to create comparable samples of heterosexual (n = 2510) and lesbian (n = 283) women on six demographic factors, including relationship length. Heterosexual and lesbian women were equally likely to be sexually satisfied (66% heterosexual women vs. 68% lesbian women). Compared to heterosexuals, lesbians were more likely to report having sex 0–1 times per month (11% vs. 23%) and were less likely to report having sex greater than once per month (89% vs. 77%). Among women who had been in relationships for longer than 5 years, heterosexual women were less likely than lesbian women to report having sex 0–1 times per month (15%; 42%). This steeper drop in sexual frequency among lesbian women than heterosexual women has pejoratively been labeled lesbian bed death. Rather than accept the label “lesbian bed death” as characterizing these sexual relationships, we turn our attention to what we call lesbian bed intimacies: the myriad ways that lesbian women incorporate behaviors promoting emotional connection, romance, and mood setting, as well as relying on a wide variety of specific sexual acts (e.g., use of sex toys) and sexual communication. Compared to heterosexual women, lesbian women were more likely to usually to always receive oral sex during sex in the past month (28%; 47%) and to use sex toys in the past year (40%; 62%). In their last sexual encounter, lesbian women were more likely to say “I love you” (67%; 80%), have sex longer than 30 min (48%; 72%), and engage in gentle kissing (80%; 92%). These intimacies likely help explain why sexual satisfaction was similar in these groups despite notable differences in sexual frequency.