Realism vs alarmism: Since the 1980s, there has been an ozone 'hole' over the tropics much larger than the Antarctic one; obviously, no harm has been reported related to this thinning despite affecting almost 50pct of the world's population

Observation of large and all-season ozone losses over the tropics featured. Qing-Bin Lua. AIP Advances 12, 075006 (Jul 5 2022); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0094629

Abstract: This paper reveals a large and all-season ozone hole in the lower stratosphere over the tropics (30°N–30°S) existing since the 1980s, where an O3 hole is defined as an area of O3 loss larger than 25% compared with the undisturbed atmosphere. The depth of this tropical O3 hole is comparable to that of the well-known springtime Antarctic O3 hole, whereas its area is about seven times that of the latter. Similar to the Antarctic O3 hole, approximately 80% of the normal O3 value is depleted at the center of the tropical O3 hole. The results strongly indicate that both Antarctic and tropical O3 holes must arise from an identical physical mechanism, for which the cosmic-ray-driven electron reaction model shows good agreement with observations. The whole-year large tropical O3 hole could cause a great global concern as it can lead to increases in ground-level ultraviolet radiation and affect 50% of the Earth’s surface area, which is home to approximately 50% of the world’s population. Moreover, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes is equivalent to the formation of three “temperature holes” observed in the stratosphere. These findings will have significances in understanding planetary physics, ozone depletion, climate change, and human health.

IV. DISCUSSION

The present finding of a tropical ozone hole is closest to the observation by Polvani et al.²⁶ of large O3 losses at the altitude of 18.5 km or 67/68 hPa over the tropics (30°S–30°N) from 1979 to 1997 with data from three independent datasets (TOST, BDBP, and GOZCARDS)^28–30 although they did not reveal the tropical O3 hole. Polvani et al.²⁶ also showed that global and tropical LST cooling had disappeared since 1997, while the tropical O3 concentration reached the minimum around 2005. When explaining their observed results, however, Polvani et al. argued for the low abundance of active chlorine and hence no local chemical O3 destruction in the tropical lower stratosphere. Instead, they argued that the observed tropical O3 and cooling trends were primarily driven by tropical upwelling caused by ODSs rather than greenhouse gases (GHGs) (mainly non-halogenated GHGs, as widely believed). As we have noted in the Introduction and will further discuss later, however, even a low level of active halogen can cause significant ozone depletion in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Interestingly, Polvani et al.²⁶ also performed simulations from a chemistry–climate model (CCM) with incrementally added single forcings (sea surface temperatures—SSTs, GHGs, ODSs, volcanic eruptions, and solar variations) to detail the contribution of each forcing to tropical ozone and LSTs. Although their simulated results showed that ODSs were the dominant forcing of tropical ozone loss over GHGs, it must be pointed out that their simulated values of sum ozone loss (−28 ± 13 ppbv per decade; see their Table 1) were about five times smaller than their observed results (∼−150 ppbv per decade for the 1980s and 1990s), even ignoring that not all individual ensemble members showed statistically significant trends (see their Table 2). Moreover, in contrast to their claim that tropical lower stratospheric ozone would be closely tied to tropical upwelling w*, their simulated value of the w* increase by ODSs is not dominant but very close to that by GHGs, each force contributing to an increment by ∼0.1 km yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹ at 85 hPa, namely, 0.04 ± 0.09 for SSTs, 0.10 ± 0.11 for SSTs + GHGs, and 0.21 ± 0.11 for SSTs + GHGs + ODSs (see their Table 1). The results of the latter were also consistent with their simulated results of tropical LST trends (see their Fig. 3).

The simulated results of CCMs by Randel and Thompson³⁷ and others³⁸ had some differences from but were overall similar to the above-mentioned CCM results by Polvani et al.²⁶ In most simulated results of CCMs, the strength of tropical upwelling was projected to increase from 1960 to 2100 by ∼2% per decade with the largest trends occurring in JJA, corresponding to tropical O3 reductions at 50 hPa of 0.15–0.35 ppmv (11–25 ppbv per decade).³⁸ This ozone loss trend resulting from CCM simulations is about 10 times less than the observations by Polvani et al.²⁶ and the present observations shown in Figs. 1–5. More crucially, the observed data have robustly shown that significant tropical ozone loss and LST cooling occurred in the 1980s and 1990s only, which is in drastic discrepancy from the simulated results of CCMs. Polvani et al.²⁶ were then led to the open question: How could ODSs affect the stratospheric circulation? They conceded that the underlying mechanism for ODSs being a key forcing for tropical lower stratospheric O3 and temperature trends remained largely unexplored. Knowing the wide belief in CCMs that the key drivers of tropical upwelling and thus tropical O3 or LST trends since 1960 are non-halogenated GHGs (mainly CO2), Polvani et al.²⁶ were forced to suggest that polar O3 depletion caused by ODSs would cause tropical upwelling and hence large tropical O3 losses. This explanation cannot be correct either, as the polar O3 hole is seasonal and appears only in the springtime, whereas the tropical O3 hole is all-season and has no changes in its central location over the seasons and over the decades since its appearance in the 1980s [Figs. 1–3 and 4(e)].

The present observed results in Figs. 1–6 and Figs. S1–S4 strongly indicate that, like the Antarctic O3 hole that was once incorrectly explained by the misconceived air transport mechanism (“dynamical theory”), the tropical O3 hole must not result from changes in normal atmospheric circulation patterns over the tropics since the 1960s or 1970s but result from an identical physical/chemical mechanism to that for the polar O3 hole. Obviously, the tropical O3 hole varies closely with the atmospheric level of CFCs [as seen in Fig. 4(b)], so it must originate from a CFC-related mechanism. The postulated stratospheric cooling and tropical upwelling effects of increasing non-halogenated GHGs have disappeared in observed O3 and temperature data for the Antarctic lower stratosphere^6–8 and for the tropical lower stratosphere.²⁶ It is obvious that the simulated results from CCMs^26,37,38 do not agree with the observed results shown in Figs. 4(b), 5(a), 5(b), and 6(f), which show that the negative O3 trends were about 10 times larger (−25 to −30% per decade) in the 1980s and 1990s and there have been no significant O3 or LST trends in the tropical/Antarctic since the mid-1990s. The latter are actually consistent with the observations summarized in the newest IPCC report (Chap. 2).³⁶ Moreover, the proposed enhanced tropical upwelling directly contradicts with the observed CFC depletion in the lower tropical stratosphere [Fig. 4(d)], as increased upward motion would transport CFC-rich air from the troposphere. Indeed, the observed data robustly show no shifts in the positions of both Antarctic and tropical O3 holes that have constantly been centered in the altitude region corresponding to the CR ionization peak since the 1960s/1980s and circularly symmetric O3 depletion cyclones are formed with the largest depletion at the centers [Figs. 1–3 and 4(e)]. These major features cannot be explained by tropical upwelling due to non-halogenated GHGs (mainly CO2) that have kept rising since the industrial revolution starting in 1760. All the observed data strongly indicate that tropical upwelling cannot be the major mechanism for the observed large, deep, and all-season tropical O3 hole. The simultaneous depletions of both CFCs and O3 in the lower tropical stratosphere are most likely due to a physical reaction mechanism that occurs locally. For the latter, the CRE mechanism, supported by the observed data in Figs. 1–6 and the substantial datasets obtained from both laboratory and atmospheric measurements,^{3–9,39–41} has provided the best and predictive model.

It is well known that the presence of PSCs is crucial for the formation of the Antarctic O3 hole.^42–45 It was proposed that on the surfaces of PSCs, chlorine reservoir molecules (HCl and ClONO2) are converted into photoactive forms (Cl2) that can then undergo photolysis to destroy O3. There are two types of PSCs, namely, Type I and Type II PSC. The composition of Type II PSC is water ice, while Type I PSC is composed of mixtures of nitric acid (HNO3), water vapor (H2O), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4). The temperatures required for the formation of Type I and II PSCs are 195 and 188 K, respectively. Thus, it is very likely that TSCs, at least Type I PSC-like TSCs, can also form in the tropical lower stratosphere over the seasons due to the observed low temperatures of 190–200 K [Figs. S4 and Fig. 4(f)]. CRs may also play a certain role in forming PSCs and PSC-like TSCs.^16,19 Note that the tropical lower stratosphere is very different from the polar lower stratosphere in both composition and climate. The former is rich in CFCs and other halogen-containing gases, whereas the latter are composed of inorganic chlorine species and lower-level CFCs. However, the CRE mechanism put forward two decades ago has proposed that O3-depleting reactions of both CFCs and inorganic halogen species can effectively occur on the surfaces of PSCs.^{3–9,39–41} Therefore, there are required and sufficient conditions for O3-depleting reactions occurring on the surfaces of proposed PSC-like TSCs in the tropical lower stratosphere. As noted in the Introduction, the constant co-presence of low-temperature TSCs and intense sunlight should lead to a unique active halogen evolution in the tropical lower stratosphere, in which halogen-catalyzed reactions are much more efficient for O3 destruction than those in the polar lower stratosphere.

The tropics (30°N–30°S) constitutes 50% of the Earth’s surface area, which is home to about 50% of the world’s population. O3 depletion in the tropics could cause a great global concern. In areas where O3 depletion is observed to be smaller in absolute O3 value, UV-B increases are more difficult to detect as the detection can be complicated by changes in cloudiness, local pollution, and other difficulties. However, it is generally agreed that the depletion of the O3 layer leads to an increase in ground-level UV radiation because ozone is an effective absorber of solar UV radiation. Exposure to enhanced UV-B levels could increase the incidence of skin cancer and cataracts in humans, weaken human immune systems, decrease agricultural productivity, and negatively affect sensitive aquatic organisms and ecosystems.⁴⁶ Indeed, there was a report called HIPERION published by the Ecuadorian Space Agency in 2008.⁴⁷ The study using ground measurements in Ecuador and satellite data for several countries over 28 years found that the UV radiation reaching equatorial latitudes was far greater than expected, with the UV index as high as 24 in Quito. This Ecuadorian report concluded that O3 depletion levels over equatorial regions are already endangering large populations in the regions. Further delicate studies of O3 depletion, UV radiation change, increased cancer risks, and other negative effects on health and ecosystems in the tropical regions will be of great interest and significance.

Another important result is that the global lower stratospheric temperature is essentially governed by the O3 layer, which is expected as ozone is the main and dominant molecule that absorbs solar radiation in the stratosphere. As a result, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes will play a major role in stratospheric cooling and regulating the global lower stratospheric temperature, as seen previously^6–9,26 and in the results shown in Fig. S4 and Figs. 4(f) and 6(e)–6(f). As seen in Fig. S4 and Fig. 4(f), this is equivalent to the formation of three “temperature holes” in the stratosphere, corresponding to the Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic O3 holes, respectively. This interesting result will be further explored in a subsequent paper.

Big meta-analysis: Religious people self-report higher well-being, specially in more religious societies

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being. Suzanne Hoogeveen et al. Religion, Brain & Behavior, Jul 6 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2070255

Abstract: The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β=0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β=0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates.

Keywords: Healthmany analystsopen sciencereligion

5. Summary

In the current project, 120 analysis teams were given a large cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535, 24 countries) in order to investigate two research questions: (1) “Do religious people self-report higher well-being?” and (2) “Does the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depend on perceived cultural norms of religion?.” In a two-stage procedure, the teams first proposed an analysis and then executed their planned analysis on the data.

Perhaps surprisingly in light of previous many-analysts projects, results were fairly consistent across teams. For research question 1 on the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being, all but three teams reported a positive effect size and confidence/credible intervals that exclude zero. For research question 2, the results were somewhat more variable: 95%$95\text{\%}$ of the teams reported a positive effect size for the moderating influence of cultural norms of religion on the association between religiosity and self-reported well-being, with 65%$65\text{\%}$ of the confidence/credible intervals excluding zero. While most teams used (multilevel) linear regression, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variable, the dependent variable, and the included covariates.

A further discussion of these results including limitations and broader implications, as well as a reflection on the many-analysts approach is covered in the closing article (Hoogeveen et al., 2022). There, we also address the commentaries written by some of the analysis teams.

Many-Analysts Religion Project: Reflection and conclusion

Many-analysts religion project: reflection and conclusion. Suzanne Hoogeveen et al. Religion, Brain & Behavior, Jul 5 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2070263

In the main article on the Many-Analysts Religion Project (MARP) the results of the 120 analysis teams were summarized by taking each team's reported effect size and subjective assessment of the relation between religiosity and well-being, and the moderating role of cultural norms on this relation (Hoogeveen et al., 2022). The many-analysts approach allowed us to appraise the uncertainty of the outcomes, which has been identified as one of the pillars of good statistical practice (Wagenmakers et al., 2021). A downside of this approach, however, is that a fine-grained consideration of the details and nuances of the results becomes difficult. Summaries of the individual approaches are documented in the teams' OSF project folders, but time and space did not permit the inclusion of details on each of the individual analysis pipelines in the main article.

However, we believe the scope of the project and the effort of the analysis teams justify highlighting some more in-depth observations. Here, we aim to address these supplementary findings, taking the points raised in the 17 commentaries written by various participating analysts as a guideline. We identified three overarching themes in the commentaries and our own experiences. First, there was a need for more focus on theoretical depth and specificity. We refer to this aspect as “zooming in.” Second, multiple commentaries reflected on the broader implications of our results, elaborating on robustness and (the limits of) generalizability. We refer to this aspect as “zooming out.” Third, several commentaries addressed the appropriateness of the analysts' chosen statistical models given the MARP data.

In the following sections, we will first zoom in and address the issue of theoretical specificity. We will then zoom out and discuss to what extent the MARP results are robust and can be generalized. Subsequently, we discuss some methodological concerns, mostly related to the structure of the data. Finally, we will reflect on our experience of organizing a many-analysts project and highlight some lessons learned.

5. Concluding remarks

The main finding of the MARP is that religiosity and well-being are positively associated. This relation was established in a strictly confirmatory manner and seems robust against a plethora of different analytic decisions and strategies. In addition, the positive relation between individual religiosity and well-being appears stronger when religion is perceived to be normative in a particular country than when it is perceived as less normative. This moderating effect of cultural norms of religion was found consistently in the same direction but appears less robust than the main association between religiosity and well-being.

Many-analysts approaches are relatively new to the social sciences and we hope that they will become more widely adopted in the coming years. We believe the two main merits of a many-analysts approach are that it provides (1) an indication of the robustness of the effect on interest, and (2) a concrete demonstration of the variety of theoretical angles and statistical strategies that may be added to researchers' toolboxes. We would recommend the many-analysts approach especially for much-debated research questions that are tested using a fairly straightforward design (e.g., simple associations or effects from an existing theory instead of complex cognitive models for a new hypothesis).

We consider the MARP a positive example of team science and would like to thank the analysis teams for their efforts. In fact, we are intrigued by the creative contributions of the teams exploring different aspects of religiosity and well-being beyond our imposed research questions. We hope the MARP can serve as an inspiration for future many-analysts projects.

Gossiping was more about celebrities and ingroup members (over strangers); more about negative events overall, and yet for ingroup members, more positive gossiping; for content, more about moral topics

How ‘who someone is’ and ‘what they did’ influences gossiping about them. Jeungmin Lee, Jerald D. Kralik, Jaehyung Kwon, Jaeseung Jeong. PLoS, July 6, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269812

Abstract: To understand, predict, and help correct each other’s actions we need to maintain accurate, up-to-date knowledge of people, and communication is a critical means by which we gather and disseminate this information. Yet the conditions under which we communication social information remain unclear. Testing hypotheses generated from our theoretical framework, we examined when and why social information is disseminated about an absent third party: i.e., gossiped. Gossip scenarios presented to participants (e.g., “Person-X cheated on their exam”) were based on three key factors: (1) target (ingroup, outgroup, or celebrity), (2) valence (positive or negative), and (3) content. We then asked them (a) whether they would spread the information, and (b) to rate it according to subjective valence, ordinariness, interest level, and emotion. For ratings, the scenarios participants chose to gossip were considered to have higher valence (whether positive or negative), to be rarer, more interesting, and more emotionally evocative; thus showing that the paradigm was meaningful to subjects. Indeed, for target, valence, and content, a repeated-measures ANOVA found significant effects for each factor independently, as well as their interactions. The results supported our hypotheses: e.g., for target, more gossiping about celebrities and ingroup members (over strangers); for valence, more about negative events overall, and yet for ingroup members, more positive gossiping; for content, more about moral topics, with yet all domains of social content communicated depending on the situation—context matters, influencing needs. The findings suggest that social knowledge sharing (i.e., gossip) involves sophisticated calculations that require our highest sociocognitive abilities, and provide specific hypotheses for future examination of neural mechanisms.

Discussion

In this study we sought to test the extent to which gossiping behavior could be understood using a model of social information communication [72, 73]. This model is not unlike others, investigating the fundamental motives behind gossip behaviors [e.g., 20, 24, 26, 28]; however, our model extends the existing ones, providing a more comprehensive sociocognitive-neuroeconomic account of social information communication that more closely models the human mind/brain, allowing us to understand and explain the findings under one consistent and detailed framework. To test the six model predictions, we first asked participants to read various gossip scenarios (e.g., Person-X cheated on the final exam), and then asked whether they would gossip this information to others. The scenarios varied the target person that the gossip is about (ingroup, celebrities, or outgroup), valence (whether positive or negative), and content (eight different domains).

Main findings

The target main effect (celebrities > ingroup >> outgroup) provides evidence for interest more generally [4, 9, 14–19], and relationship intimacy [2, 23, 34, 49–53] and social influence [24, 25, 27, 35–48] more specifically as important factors driving people to gossip. Since intimacy or closeness implies having more meaning and influence in an individual’s day-to-day life, and influence or status implies social attention, power, and influence, both factors support the notion that functional significance strongly drives gossiping.

For valence, we found negative events to be spread more than positive ones. Indeed, the functional role of negative gossiping–e.g., to punish the target, protect receivers, and potentially promote oneself [24, 25, 27, 35–48, 83, 90, 96]–appeared prominent and clear, especially given that we did not find evidence for negative gossiping being based simply on its intrigue or entertainment value (with ratings for ‘rarity’ comparable to positive scenarios and lower than positive scenarios for ‘interest level’).

Although, overall, negative valence promoted gossiping more than positively valenced scenarios, a persistent finding across the study nevertheless was that positively valenced scenarios perhaps rather surprisingly promoted gossip to a large degree: overall (i.e., not greatly lower than negative: 48.41% spreading for positive vs. 50.76% for negative), being higher than negative spreading for ingroup (target x valence), and being comparable to or even higher than negative spreading for specific content dimensions, even for celebrities and outgroup [61]. For example, the positive gossiping rate was especially high for care, fairness, and altruism for all target groups, indicating that these positive acts resonate perhaps universally: such kindness and regard for others permeates the social network. Our results (including the ratings scores for subjective valence, interest and emotion) thus join the others that have found positive events to also strongly drive gossip [8, 32, 57, 59–61]. Moreover, given that this occurred with all content domains (i.e., all showed significant positive gossiping), the results suggest that along with correction and ‘punishment’, positive feedback and information sharing comparably influence social behavior–not only for motives such as social bonding, but also for social control via strengthening and promoting it [26]. This is especially suggested given the high rates of positive gossiping across the moral domains. Indeed, rather surprisingly, we even found prosociality to produce more positive (care) than negative (harm) gossiping.

The results for content overall supported our hypothesis that, in general, moral dimensions would be spread most, and in particular, that prosociality (care/harm) and fairness (fairness/cheating) would be most spread. These align with previous findings that highlight the functional significance of gossip as it relates to cooperation, competition, and other moral dimensions, and we extend the findings to further dimensions of morality [25, 35–42, 64–66, 68]. Thus, almost diametrically opposed to the presumed trivial nature of gossip, we found the most impactful moral dimensions to be most spread, attesting to the importance of gossip on the regulation of societal members and the influence on future social interactions.

At the same time, scenarios representing all of the moral domains (and all content domains for that matter) were significantly spread at various rates, indicating the need to study these various domains and their differences more closely, with dominant paradigms that have focused on cooperation and competition, for example, useful in their own right, but not well representing other important social dimensions. For instance, the results for purity were particularly interesting, revealing that, on the one hand, the dimension appears to be universally meaningful (here: across all target groups), and yet, on the other hand, treated exceptionally, at least for perhaps particular targets (here: ingroup) and cultures (here: Korean). Indeed, gossip spreading about targets’ norm violation has been shown to depend on cultural context [63, 69]. Future research is therefore needed to clarify how and why individuals and societies respond the way they do to cases involving purity (e.g., gossiping vs. other means of communication, or perhaps even suppression)–and, in fact, for all individual dimensions of social interaction (i.e., moral and others). To be sure, our findings also point again to the significance of the relationships and interdependencies among the gossip parties themselves (i.e., gossiper-receiver, gossiper-target, and receiver-target) [20]. Moreover, we believe these questions are particularly ripe for additional modeling [97–100] and neural imaging studies [101–103] to help clarify the factors, their relationships, and the underlying mechanisms that drive the sociocognitive-neuroeconomic decisions involving social interaction and communication.

In addition to moral dimensions, we nonetheless also found that other types of knowledge may be highly valued under various circumstances; in other words, context is critical: for example, with more personal and day-to-day sociality (i.e., general social affairs and social-oriented) being more important with ingroup targets. Because this more seemingly mundane social information was differentially important for ingroup members, it suggests that its significance derives from the desire to be updated about the basic activities of those close to you [28]. From a sociocognitive perspective, it implies the need to maintain accurate knowledge of them: i.e., an accurate model of their minds, including their current knowledge, interests, intentions, activities, etc. [5, 72, 73, 92, 93]. Moreover, in doing this, a sense of solidarity and feelings of community among ingroup members also develops [23, 34, 46, 49–53].

A dominant finding in the two-way (target x valence) and three-way (content x valence x target) interactions was that spreading information about ingroup targets skewed positive, suggesting either that positive events were more meaningful and thus being spread more for ingroup targets [83, 90], or spreading negative information about them might be costlier [20]–and we found evidence for both–especially the latter. That is, for spreading negative information about ingroup members, the overall results suggest a general negativity-avoidance effect for ingroup targets. This result is in line with previous findings that people perceive a gossiper who shares favorable and therefore positive information about others more positively, which should be especially important among ingroup members [65, 104–107].

Multiple factors likely dampen negative gossiping of ingroup members, including potential repercussions, other means to communicate to the target, and perhaps more leeway with and empathy toward equal and equivalently lower status individuals [20, 21, 49, 108, 109]. Further empirical and computational research can help to delineate the potential influence of such factors on negative gossiping about ingroup members (including both the ‘ceiling’ and ‘floor’ components). In any case, this avoidance of negativity with ingroup members provides evidence for our predictions (Hypothesis 4b), and more specifically, that the net effect of the overall expected outcome influences the gossiper’s decision to gossip [20, 57].

Another dominant finding was that spreading information about celebrities generally skewed negative. This overall effect is likely at least partially due to the lowered risk of repercussions to the gossiper; but the evidence further suggests that the social status of celebrities is a major driving factor underlying the heightened negative gossiping, with the intention of lowering that of the celebrity (and thereby raising the gossiper’s own status, and perhaps the receivers’ as well), at least among those within the gossiper’s purview. This finding thus supports others showing that in an environment where vertical hierarchy exists, people with low status tend to gossip about high-status individuals with more power [28, 49]. Gossiping negatively about people with power (especially about moral contents) has been called a weapons-of-the-weak mechanism [110] or subordinate strategy [see 111] whereby low-status, relatively powerless individuals use gossip as a weapon to pressure more privileged individuals [26]. An examination of the results for the specific content domains further showed that for higher-status individuals (celebrities), loyalty and humility warrants action (i.e., gossiping), as do cases of trying to beat others in underhanded ways or otherwise cheating the system [83].

In contrast, the greater interest in altruism (over selfishness) and fairness (over cheating) for both ingroup and outgroup targets suggests that such selfless and fair acts are especially impressive when conducted by those of lesser status and means. Moreover, authority and positive competition with ingroup targets appear to generate action (receiving higher gossiping rates), suggesting that these topics are more relevant among relatively lower (compared to celebrities) and more equal status ingroup members, with positive competition suggesting scenarios of ambition or achievement resonate more. At the same time, selfish behavior of ingroup and outgroup people are relatively less spread, with such acts appearing to be more tolerated in those with less means and status. In sum, our results support our hypotheses and others findings that status is a major factor determining the extent of and types of gossip [28, 49]. Further empirical and computational work can extend our findings by delineating exactly how status interacts with other factors to promote social interactions, such as with social information spreading [e.g., 112]. In any case, the evidence for status considerations again attests to the importance of functional value driving gossiping behavior.

For outgroup targets, we generally found a relative lack of interest, with many results significantly weaker compared to ingroup and celebrities, and thus supporting our hypotheses (especially Hypothesis 1). Even this result may be a bit surprising if one generally construes the “outgroup” as outsiders, and thus potential threats, enemies, etc. However, comparable to the findings of others, we found that the usual use of the “outgroup” concept requires a more nuanced appreciation [113]. Those considered as viable threats likely evoke sufficient interest that warrants action, rather than generally being ignored. Yet it is also unfortunately probable that a relative lack of empathy can be seen with strangers in general, making it more difficult to care sufficiently in their affairs [114, 115].

At the same time, however, even for outgroup members (i.e., complete strangers), some content domains were generally important in our study, including a heightened rate of information spreading for both care and harm (i.e., the prosociality domain), fair and cheating (i.e., the fairness domain), and altruism and selfishness (i.e., the social-oriented domain). This heightened spreading for all three target groups indicates a strong interest in prosociality, fairness, and social-orientation that is worthy of disseminating to others regardless of the actor involved–i.e., prominent universals for all members of society. These results are in line with others that show that stories of strangers can also elicit interest and therefore produce gossip if the events can offer useful life lessons and strategies [4, 28].

Study limitations

There are some study limitations that should be considered. First, we did not test our hypotheses in a more natural context where gossip triads are interacting freely in spontaneous situations. The clear advantage of field studies using various methods such as eavesdropping [6, 8, 116], daily diary surveys [117], and experience sampling methods [59] is that a potentially rich set of observational data that reflects real-life gossiping behavior can be collected [see 59, 96]. And there are indeed cases where behavior observed in the laboratory may not appear outside it [118, 119], requiring all laboratory studies to consider the ecological validity. Here, we took several steps to minimize the gap between the natural and laboratory settings. First, we note that much of the information people learn about others (including ingroup members) these days comes from texts read on electronic devices (phones, computers). Second, prior to the experiment we asked participants to submit the names of their closest friends (i.e., ingroup) so that the ingroup scenarios would feel like actually receiving information about them. We also chose well-known Korean celebrities, and used foreign names as strangers for the outgroup. Third, we also gave participants thorough instruction to assume that every piece of information provided during the task is real; and we received several comments during the post-experiment verbal interview directly stating that the scenarios felt realistic, even being “shocked” by some of the extreme cases (e.g., with harm or degradation contents). Fourth, and importantly, our experiment was also designed to address ecological validity directly by asking participants to rate each scenario according to subjective valence, ordinariness, interest level, and emotion (after they chose whether to gossip or not). The scenarios participants chose to gossip were considered to have higher valence (whether positive or negative), to be rarer, more interesting, and more emotionally evocative—thus showing that they were meaningful to the participants. Fifth, and finally, the fact that many of our results match those of other studies helps to support the validity of our experimental paradigm.

Indeed, experimental paradigms such as ours help complement others by enabling clearer and more precise testing of relevant factors. Nonetheless, it is clear that future research is needed to further validate our findings, not only with methodologies described above, but others as well, such as curating and examining natural interactions on social media (such as Facebook or Twitter).

A second limitation is that the behavioral-based study is nevertheless limited in the precision it can achieve, not enabling tests of more detailed processes in our theoretical framework. Future research can hopefully utilize our framework and test paradigm to examine, for example, the neural processes underlying the gossip decision (such as the benefits vs. costs computations in the brain that drive gossiping). A few studies have investigated neural activity during gossip [101–103], but many unknown factors remain. Third, it is clear that many more factors remain to be examined, such as how the choice of receiver influences the gossip decision, as the possible gossiper may keep quiet [20] or selectively expose the target information [49, 120] depending on the receiver’s identity. Other factors include more specific detail about the target and event content, especially to better characterize the more nuanced context effects.