Friday, January 4, 2019

Pattern Analysis of World Conflicts over the past 600 years: War is a statistical phenomenon related to the network structure of the human society

Pattern Analysis of World Conflicts over the past 600 years. Gianluca Martelloni, Francesca Di Patti, Ugo Bardi. arXiv, Dec 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.08071

Abstract: We analyze the database prepared by Brecke (Brecke 2011) for violent conflict, covering some 600 years of human history. After normalizing the data for the global human population, we find that the number of casualties tends to follow a power law over the whole data series for the period considered, with no evidence of periodicity. We also observe that the number of conflicts, again normalized for the human population, show a decreasing trend as a function of time. Our result agree with previous analyses on this subject and tend to support the idea that war is a statistical phenomenon related to the network structure of the human society.