Given the inherent complexity & ambiguity of the political realm, ideological uncertainty undermines political efficacy & interest, motivating individuals to disengage from participating in electoral politics

Ideological uncertainty and investment of the self in politics. Joseph A.Vitriola et al. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Volume 82, May 2019, Pages 85-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2019.01.005

Abstract: Ideological orientation may provide some citizens with an efficient heuristic for guiding their political judgment. Accordingly, one might expect that ideological uncertainty would lead individuals to engage more deeply with the political domain in order to acquire a sufficient level of subjective certainty that the ideological orientation they have adopted is the “right” one. Given the inherent complexity and ambiguity of the political realm, however, we propose that ideological uncertainty should instead undermine political efficacy and interest, thereby motivating individuals to disengage and withdrawal from participating in electoral politics. Using both correlational and experimental methods, we conduct four studies on both convenience and representative samples in the context of two electoral contexts to test this hypothesis. Study 1 (N = 343) and Study 2 (N = 1054) demonstrate that ideological uncertainty covaries with reduced levels of political engagement and participation in the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, respectively. Study 3 (N = 170) and Study 4 (N = 798) replicate and extend the results of Study 1 and 2 by experimentally manipulating ideological uncertainty using an original and innovative false-feedback paradigm. We demonstrate the causal effect of ideological uncertainty on political engagement (independent of demographic variables, political knowledge, and ideological extremity and conviction), and find that it is particularly pronounced among individuals who reflect on the meaning of their political judgment and behaviors for their political orientation. Implications for political choice and behavior are considered.

From 2015... Past research suggests moral behavior is highly inconsistent, which leaves little room for a personological approach to morality; authors reveal a surprisingly large degree of moral consistency

From 2015... A foundation beam for studying morality from a personological point of view: Are individual differences in moral behaviors and thoughts consistent? Peter Meindl et al. Journal of Research in Personality, Volume 59, December 2015, Pages 81-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2015.09.005

Highlights
•    Past research suggests moral behavior is highly inconsistent.
•    This leaves little room for a personological approach to morality.
•    We tested the consistency of real world morality via two experience sampling studies.
•    Results reveal a surprisingly large degree of moral consistency.
•    Personality appears to have the potential to profoundly impact moral life.

Abstract: Morality is a topic of burgeoning scientific interest, and the relevance of personological factors to moral behavior has interdisciplinary implications for the social sciences, public policy, and philosophy. However, relatively little research has investigated the role of personological factors in moral life, perhaps because of lingering skepticism about the robustness of moral traits. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether morality is consistent across many occasions of everyday life, implying that personological factors play an important role in moral behavior. A novel method of assessing moral behaviors was developed and employed in two experience sampling studies (4075 total observations). Results showed that moral behavior is consistent in many different ways, suggesting that personological factors substantially impact moral life.

Why would people vote to ban a product they regularly consume? This question is at the crux of the controversies over a variety of ballot initiatives restricting certain agricultural production practices

An Experiment on the Vote-Buy Gap with Application to Cage-Free Eggs. Andrew Paul, Jayson Lusk. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.02.005

Highlights
•    The vote-buy gap can be replicated in the lab.
•    Many people vote to ban a product they purchase.
•    The behavior is not driven by a sample selection effect.
•    Information asymmetry may be one driver of the effect.

Abstract: Why would people vote to ban a product they regularly consume? This question is at the crux of the controversies over a variety of ballot initiatives restricting certain agricultural production practices. This research moves the question to a controlled laboratory setting with real food and real money to explore the underlying causes of the so-called vote-buy gap. Respondents first made a shopping choice between snack options, some of which included eggs from caged hens as an ingredient. After selecting a snack, participants then voted on a proposition to ban snack options that utilized eggs from caged hens. We show that the vote-buy gap can be replicated in the lab: in the control condition, approximately 80% of the individuals who chose snacks with caged eggs when shopping subsequently voted to ban snacks with caged eggs. The finding rules out the suggestion that the vote-buy gap is an illusion or statistical artifact, as it can be re-created in an experimental lab setting at an individual level. A number of experimental treatments were conducted to test hypotheses related to the underlying causes of the vote-buy gap. We found qualified support for the hypothesis that the vote-buy gap is a result of information asymmetries, but little evidence that it results from public good or expressive voting phenomena.

Rolf Degen summarizing: 38% of subjects derived pleasure from purportedly grinding live bugs, some demanded even more than they had been granted

Psychopathy subfactors distinctively predispose to dispositional and state-level of sadistic pleasure.. Jill Lobbestael, Martijn van Teffelen, Roy F. Baumeister. Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbtep.2019.02.003

Highlights
•    Sadistic pleasure has devastating interpersonal and societal consequences.
•    The current knowledge on non-sexual, subclinical forms of sadistic pleasure is poor.
•    Coldheartedness showed the strongest relationship to sadistic pleasure.
•    Increased Coldheartedness related to more pleasure and less guilt after bug grinding.

Abstract
Background and objectives: Sadistic pleasure — the enjoyment of harm-infliction to others — can have devastating interpersonal and societal consequences. The current knowledge on non-sexual, subclinical forms of sadistic pleasure is poor. The present study therefore focussed on the personality correlates of sadistic pleasure and investigated the relationship between the different subcomponents of psychopathy and both dispositional and state-level sadistic pleasure.

Method: N = 120 males drawn from a community sample filled out questionnaires to assess their level of psychopathy and dispositional sadism. Then, participants engaged in a bug-grinder procedure in which they were led to believe that they were killing pill bugs. The positive affect they reported after ostensibly killing the bugs served as measures of sadistic pleasure. The bug-grinding task was repeated a second time after installing either a positive victim attitude combined with giving human names to the bugs, or a negative victim attitude combined with labeling the bugs with numbers.

Results: Although the Self-centred Impulsivity component of psychopathy had some relevance to sadism, it was the Coldheartedness subscale that showed the strongest relationship to sadistic pleasure. Specifically, increased Coldheartedness was uniquely related to more positive affect, along with less guilt after bug grinding.

Limitations: Drawbacks of the study include the unique reliance on a male, community sample, and the potential impact of demand characteristics, including a suggestion that the participant put at least some bugs into the grinder.

Conclusions: Our findings underscore the differential predictive value of psychopathy components for sadistic pleasure. Coldheartedness can be considered especially disturbing because of its unique relationship to harm-infliction of the most irreversible nature (i.e. killing), and gaining pleasure out of it.

Universal Basic Income: Would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households

Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries. Hilary W. Hoynes, Jesse Rothstein. NBER Working Paper No. 25538, February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25538

Abstract: We discuss the potential role of Universal Basic Incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well developed, if often incomplete, safety nets. We develop a framework for describing transfer programs, flexible enough to encompass most existing programs as well as UBIs, and use this framework to compare various UBIs to the existing constellation of programs in the United States. A UBI would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households. A UBI large enough to increase transfers to low-income families would be enormously expensive. We review the labor supply literature for evidence on the likely impacts of a UBI. We argue that the ongoing UBI pilot studies will do little to resolve the major outstanding questions.

Intergenerational Mobility in Africa: Upward mobility is higher & downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence (higher urbanization & employment in services & manufacturing)

Intergenerational Mobility in Africa. Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, Elias Papaioannou. NBER Working Paper No. 25534. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25534

We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.

Genetic predisposition for Alzheimer's Disease correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings

Understanding the Correlation between Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk, Wealth, and the Composition of Wealth Holdings. Su H. Shin, Dean R. Lillard, Jay Bhattacharya.
NBER Working Paper No. 25526. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25526

Abstract: We investigate how the genetic risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) relates to saving behavior. Using nationally representative data from the 1992-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we find that genetic predisposition for AD correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings. People with higher Alzheimer’s Disease polygenic risk score (PGS) hold roughly 9 percent more wealth in CDs (hands-off assets) and around 11 percent, 15 percent, and 7 percent less wealth in stocks, IRAs, and other financial assets (hands-on assets) respectively. We explore three hypotheses that could explain these correlations. We hypothesize that people with high risk of AD choose different portfolios because: (i) they know their polygenic risk of developing Alzheimer’s Disease and related dementia, (ii) they have lower cognitive capacity, and (iii) the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) process that generated the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS failed to fully account for the aging process. Our extended model results do not support the first two hypotheses. Consistent with the third hypothesis, the interaction between age and the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS explains the correlation between genetic traits and asset holdings

Arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels; greater effect is among the poor

Poor Sleep: Sunset Time and Human Capital Production. Maulik Jagnani. Jan 15 2019. https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ojttz8d9leco4n/jagnani_jmp.pdf

Abstract: This paper provides evidence that arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels. I show later sunset reduces children’s sleep: when the sun sets later, children go to bed later; by contrast, wake-up times do not respond to solar cues. Sleep-deprived students decrease study effort, consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of effort. Overall, school-age children exposed to later sunsets attain fewer years of education and  are less likely to complete primary and middle school. Later sunsets are also associated with fewer hours of sleep and lower wages among adults. The non-poor adjust their sleep schedules when the sun sets later; sunset-induced sleep deficits are most pronounced among the poor, especially in periods when households face severe financial constraints.

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I find that later sunset causes school-age children to begin sleep later, but does not affect wake-up times. An hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in sunset time reduces children’s sleep by 30 minutes. I also show that later sunset reduces students’ time spent on homework or studying, and time spent on formal and informal work by child laborers,while increasing time spent on indoor leisure for all children. This result is consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of study effort for students and work effort for child laborers.

The second part of the paper examines the consequent lifetime impacts of later sunset on stock indicators of children’s academic outcomes. I use nationally-representative data from the 2015 India Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate how children’s education outcomes co-vary with annual average sunset time across eastern and western locations within a district. I find that an hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in annual average sunset time reduces years of education by 0.8 years, and children in geographic locations with later sunset are less likely to complete primary and middle school.

Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters; ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived; overall, efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections

Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016. Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons. NBER Working Paper No. 25522. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25522

Abstract: U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.

Psychological Explanations of How Gender Relates to Perceptions and Outcomes at Trial: Verdicts tend to be harsher for male than female defendants

Psychological Explanations of How Gender Relates to Perceptions and Outcomes at Trial. Tyler N. Livingston, Peter O. Rerick, Monica K. Miller. Advances in Psychology and Law pp 137-173. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-11042-0_5

Abstract: Although the American legal system does not statutorily permit differential civil and criminal trial outcomes on the basis of gender, empirical observations of the effects of gender on trial outcomes are ample yet mixed. For several decades, legal actors have attempted to diminish the effects of gender in the courtroom through Supreme Court rulings, presidential policies, legislation, and modification of language in legal documents. Social scientific research suggests that implicit and explicit processes likely affect how the gender of legal actors (e.g., defendants, victims) relates to trial outcomes. This chapter first discusses a variety of laws and policies designed to curtail gender bias generally (e.g., in employment settings) and in the trial process specifically. Next, the chapter synthesizes empirical research that demonstrates the relationship between gender and trial process and outcomes. This synthesis of the psychological research includes specific emphasis on the gender of five primary legal actors: victims, defendants, attorneys, experts, and legal decision-makers. Then, the chapter offers psychological mechanisms that explain why the gender of legal actors (e.g., jurors, witnesses) might relate to trial outcomes. We include overarching theoretical psychological explanations for the observed effects of gender using the symbolic interaction framework and the influence of gender roles and stereotypes. Finally, we identify deficits in the existing research on the relationship between gender and the trial process, suggesting topics for future empirical examination.

About 40% of adults experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship; higher emotional intelligence helped, but little

Mating Performance: Exploring Emotional Intelligence, the Dark Triad, Jealousy and Attachment Effects. Menelaos Apostolou et al. Journal of Relationships Research, Volume 10, 019, e1, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-relationships-research/article/mating-performance-exploring-emotional-intelligence-the-dark-triad-jealousy-and-attachment-effects/F5103416EF564E2CB3C83C91BA5CFA6B

Abstract: A considerable proportion of the population in post-industrial societies experiences substantial difficulties in the domain of mating. The current research attempted to estimate the prevalence rate of poor mating performance and to identify some of its predictors. Two independent studies, which employed a total of 1,358 Greek-speaking men and women, found that about 40% of the participants experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship, or in both areas. Furthermore, emotional intelligence, Dark Triad traits, jealousy, and attachment style were found to be significant predictors of mating performance. In particular, higher emotional intelligence and narcissism were associated with higher performance in mating, while higher psychopathy, jealousy and an avoidant attachment style were associated with lower mating performance.

In old age, people from higher classes commit more crimes (tax & insurance fraud, theft at work, &c) than those of lower ones; not by need, but to maintain/expand the status already achieved

Alter(n) und Straffälligkeit: Handbuch für Wissenschaft und Praxis. Franziska Kunz, Thomas Görgen. January 2019, DOI: 10.5771/9783845276687-491

And a different world: The Crimes That Old Persons Commit. Oliver J. Keller, Jr., Clyde B. Vedder. The Gerontologist, Volume 8, Issue 1, Part 1, March 01 1968, Pages 43–50, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/8.1_Part_1.43

Check also Old Age and Crime. David O Moberg. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol 43, issue 3, 1953. https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4086&context=jclc

Detecting a Decline in Serial Homicide: The past decade had almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%)

Yaksic, Enzo, Clare Allely, Raneesha De Silva, Melissa Smith-Inglis, Daniel Konikoff, Kori Ryan, Dan Gordon, et al. 2019. “Detecting a Decline in Serial Homicide: Have We Banished the Devil from the Details?.” SocArXiv. February 11. doi:10.31235/osf.io/esyvg

Abstract

Objectives: The likelihood that serial murderers are responsible for most unresolved homicides and missing persons was examined by investigating the accounting of the phenomenon in the context of a declining prevalence.
Methods: A mixed methods approach was used, consisting of a review of a sample of unresolved homicides, a comparative analysis of the frequency of known serial homicide series and unresolved serial homicide series, and semi-structured interviews of experts.
Results: The past decade contained almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%). Only 282 (1.3%) strangled females made up the 22,444 unresolved homicides reviewed. Most expert respondents thought it unreasonable that any meaningful proportion of missing persons cases are victims of serial homicide.
Conclusions: Technology, shifts in offending behavior, proactive law enforcement action, and vigilance of society have transformed serial killing and aids in viewing offenders as people impacted by societal shifts and cultural norms. The absence of narrative details inhibited some aspects of the review. An exhaustive list of known unresolved serial homicide series remained elusive as some missing persons are never reported. Future research should incorporate those intending to murder serially, but whose efforts were stalled by arrest, imprisonment, or death.

Conspiracy Beliefs and Personaliy Traits: Agreeableness, openness to experience, & the remaining Big Five personality factors were not significantly associated with conspiracy beliefs

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Psychological Research on Conspiracy Beliefs: Field Characteristics, Measurement Instruments, and Associations With Personality Traits. Andreas Goreis, and Martin Voracek. Front. Psychol., February 11 2019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00205

Abstract: In the last decade, the number of investigations of the beliefs in conspiracy theories has begun to increase in the fields of social, differential, and experimental psychology. A considerable number of variables have been suggested as predictors of conspiracy beliefs, amongst them personality factors such as low agreeableness (as disagreeableness is associated with suspicion and antagonism) and high openness to experience (due to its positive association to seek out unusual and novel ideas). The association between agreeableness, openness to experience and conspiracy beliefs remains unclear in the literature. The present study reviews the literature of psychological studies investigating conspiracy beliefs. Additionally, the association between Big Five personality factors and conspiracy beliefs is analyzed meta-analytically using random-effects models. Ninety-six studies were identified for the systematic review. A comprehensive account of predictors, consequences, operationalization, questionnaires, and most prominent conspiracy theories is presented. For meta-analysis, 74 effect sizes from 13 studies were extracted. The psychological literature on predictors of conspiracy beliefs can be divided in approaches either with a pathological (e.g., paranoia) or socio-political focus (e.g., perceived powerlessness). Generally, there is a lack of theoretical frameworks in this young area of research. Meta-analysis revealed that agreeableness, openness to experience, and the remaining Big Five personality factors were not significantly associated with conspiracy beliefs if effect sizes are aggregated. Considerable heterogeneity in designs and operationalization characterizes the field. This article provides an overview of instrumentation, study designs, and current state of knowledge in an effort toward advancement and consensus in the study of conspiracy beliefs.

British colonial rule correlates positively with democracy levels at independence; changes in the international system during the Cold War eliminated the British advantage

British colonialism and democracy: Divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies. Alexander Lee, Jack Paine. Journal of Comparative Economics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.02.001

Highlights
•    British colonial rule correlates positively with democracy levels at independence.
•    British colonial rule is not strongly associated with democracy levels thirty years after independence.
•    Britain tailored decolonization policies to individual colonies’ democratic development.
•    Changes in the international system during the Cold War eliminated the British advantage.

Abstract: Did British colonial rule promote post-independence democracy? We provide evidence that the relationship follows a strong temporal pattern. Former British colonies were considerably more democratic than other countries immediately following independence, but subsequent democratic convergence has largely eliminated these differences in the post-Cold War period. Existing theories expounding superior British culture or alternative colonial institutions cannot account for divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies. To explain the time-varying pattern, we analyze European powers’ varying policy approaches to decolonization as well as changes in the international system. Britain more consistently treated competitive democratic elections as a prerequisite for gaining independence, leading to higher initial democracy levels. However, nascent democracies that lacked deep-rooted societal transformation faced challenges to democratic consolidation because of Cold War superpower competition. Later shifts in the international system toward promoting democracy further contributed to convergence by destabilizing colonially rooted dictatorships.