When Evolution Works Against the Future: Disgust's Contributions to the Acceptance of New Food Technologies. Aisha Egolf, Christina Hartmann, Michael Siegrist. Risk Analysis, Feb 13 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13279
Abstract: New food technologies have a high potential to transform the current resource‐consuming food system to a more efficient and sustainable one, but public acceptance of new food technologies is rather low. Such an avoidance might be maintained by a deeply preserved risk avoidance system called disgust. In an online survey, participants (N = 313) received information about a variety of new food technology applications (i.e., genetically modified meat/fish, edible nanotechnology coating film, nanotechnology food box, artificial meat/milk, and a synthetic food additive). Every new food technology application was rated according to the respondent's willingness to eat (WTE) it (i.e., acceptance), risk, benefit, and disgust perceptions. Furthermore, food disgust sensitivity was measured using the Food Disgust Scale. Overall, the WTE both gene‐technology applications and meat coated with an edible nanotechnology film were low and disgust responses toward all three applications were high. In full mediation models, food disgust sensitivity predicted the disgust response toward each new food technology application, which in turn influenced WTE them. Effects of disgust responses on the WTE a synthetic food additive were highest for and lowest for the edible nanotechnology coating film compared to the other technologies. Results indicate that direct disgust responses influence acceptance and risk and benefit perceptions of new food technologies. Beyond the discussion of this study, implications for future research and strategies to increase acceptance of new food technologies are discussed.
Thursday, February 14, 2019
Asexual women were less likely to report masturbating for sexual pleasure or fun than their sexual counterparts, & asexual men were less likely to report masturbating for sexual pleasure than sexual men
Sexual Fantasy and Masturbation Among Asexual Individuals: An In-Depth Exploration. Morag A. Yule, Lori A. Brotto, Boris B. Gorzalka. Archives of Sexual Behavior, January 2017, Volume 46, Issue 1, pp 311–328. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10508-016-0870-8
Abstract: Human asexuality is generally defined as a lack of sexual attraction. We used online questionnaires to investigate reasons for masturbation, and explored and compared the contents of sexual fantasies of asexual individuals (identified using the Asexual Identification Scale) with those of sexual individuals. A total of 351 asexual participants (292 women, 59 men) and 388 sexual participants (221 women, 167 men) participated. Asexual women were significantly less likely to masturbate than sexual women, sexual men, and asexual men. Asexual women were less likely to report masturbating for sexual pleasure or fun than their sexual counterparts, and asexual men were less likely to report masturbating for sexual pleasure than sexual men. Both asexual women and men were significantly more likely than sexual women and men to report that they had never had a sexual fantasy. Of those who have had a sexual fantasy, asexual women and men were significantly more likely to endorse the response “my fantasies do not involve other people” compared to sexual participants, and consistently scored each sexual fantasy on a questionnaire as being less sexually exciting than did sexual participants. When using an open-ended format, asexual participants were more likely to report having fantasies about sexual activities that did not involve themselves, and were less likely to fantasize about topics such as group sex, public sex, and having an affair. Interestingly, there was a large amount of overlap between sexual fantasies of asexual and sexual participants. Notably, both asexual and sexual participants (both men and women) were equally likely to fantasize about topics such as fetishes and BDSM.
h/t: Usman Muhammad
Abstract: Human asexuality is generally defined as a lack of sexual attraction. We used online questionnaires to investigate reasons for masturbation, and explored and compared the contents of sexual fantasies of asexual individuals (identified using the Asexual Identification Scale) with those of sexual individuals. A total of 351 asexual participants (292 women, 59 men) and 388 sexual participants (221 women, 167 men) participated. Asexual women were significantly less likely to masturbate than sexual women, sexual men, and asexual men. Asexual women were less likely to report masturbating for sexual pleasure or fun than their sexual counterparts, and asexual men were less likely to report masturbating for sexual pleasure than sexual men. Both asexual women and men were significantly more likely than sexual women and men to report that they had never had a sexual fantasy. Of those who have had a sexual fantasy, asexual women and men were significantly more likely to endorse the response “my fantasies do not involve other people” compared to sexual participants, and consistently scored each sexual fantasy on a questionnaire as being less sexually exciting than did sexual participants. When using an open-ended format, asexual participants were more likely to report having fantasies about sexual activities that did not involve themselves, and were less likely to fantasize about topics such as group sex, public sex, and having an affair. Interestingly, there was a large amount of overlap between sexual fantasies of asexual and sexual participants. Notably, both asexual and sexual participants (both men and women) were equally likely to fantasize about topics such as fetishes and BDSM.
h/t: Usman Muhammad
People use algorithmic advice more than human advice; appreciate algorithmic advice despite blindness to algorithm’s process; that appreciation holds even as people underweight advice more generally
Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment. Jennifer M.Logg, Julia A. Minson, Don A. Moore. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 151, March 2019, Pages 90-103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.12.005
Highlights
• We challenge prevailing idea that people prefer human to algorithmic judgment.
• In head-to-head comparisons, people use algorithmic advice more than human advice.
• We compare usage of advice using the continuous weighting of advice (WOA) measure.
• People appreciate algorithmic advice despite blindness to algorithm’s process.
• Algorithm appreciation holds even as people underweight advice more generally.
Abstract: Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think it comes from an algorithm than from a person. People showed this effect, what we call algorithm appreciation, when making numeric estimates about a visual stimulus (Experiment 1A) and forecasts about the popularity of songs and romantic attraction (Experiments 1B and 1C). Yet, researchers predicted the opposite result (Experiment 1D). Algorithm appreciation persisted when advice appeared jointly or separately (Experiment 2). However, algorithm appreciation waned when: people chose between an algorithm’s estimate and their own (versus an external advisor’s; Experiment 3) and they had expertise in forecasting (Experiment 4). Paradoxically, experienced professionals, who make forecasts on a regular basis, relied less on algorithmic advice than lay people did, which hurt their accuracy. These results shed light on the important question of when people rely on algorithmic advice over advice from people and have implications for the use of “big data” and algorithmic advice it generates.
Highlights
• We challenge prevailing idea that people prefer human to algorithmic judgment.
• In head-to-head comparisons, people use algorithmic advice more than human advice.
• We compare usage of advice using the continuous weighting of advice (WOA) measure.
• People appreciate algorithmic advice despite blindness to algorithm’s process.
• Algorithm appreciation holds even as people underweight advice more generally.
Abstract: Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think it comes from an algorithm than from a person. People showed this effect, what we call algorithm appreciation, when making numeric estimates about a visual stimulus (Experiment 1A) and forecasts about the popularity of songs and romantic attraction (Experiments 1B and 1C). Yet, researchers predicted the opposite result (Experiment 1D). Algorithm appreciation persisted when advice appeared jointly or separately (Experiment 2). However, algorithm appreciation waned when: people chose between an algorithm’s estimate and their own (versus an external advisor’s; Experiment 3) and they had expertise in forecasting (Experiment 4). Paradoxically, experienced professionals, who make forecasts on a regular basis, relied less on algorithmic advice than lay people did, which hurt their accuracy. These results shed light on the important question of when people rely on algorithmic advice over advice from people and have implications for the use of “big data” and algorithmic advice it generates.
Extramarital guys classified in four classes: Loyal, confiding, deceptive, & unfaithful; individuals differed significantly in ways that are consistent with the investment model and attachment theory
Rodriguez, L., DiBello, A., Øverup, C., & Lin, H. (2018). A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Extradyadic Involvement. Journal of Relationships Research, 9, E7. doi:10.1017/jrr.2018.6
Abstract: Extradyadic involvement — emotional, romantic, or sexual involvement with another person outside of one's romantic relationship — may have serious personal and relational consequences. The current research examines extradyadic involvement in two samples of individuals in relationships and identifies subgroups of people based on their engagement in different types of extradyadic behaviour. To assess involvement in such behaviour, we created a new behavioural inventory intended to broaden the conceptualisation of types of extradyadic behaviours. Subgroups of individuals who engage in these behaviours were extracted using latent class analysis. Study 1 assessed undergraduate students in relationships (N = 339), and results revealed four classes of individuals: loyal, confiding, deceptive, and unfaithful. Follow-up tests demonstrated that these classes of individuals differed significantly in ways that are consistent with the investment model and attachment theory. Study 2 (N = 202) replicated the four-class solution, as well as the group differences in relationship functioning and attachment orientations. Results suggest theoretically consistent typologies of extradyadic behaviour that may be useful in differentiating deceptive behaviour in close relationships in a more precise way.
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In contrast, a series of eight studies by DeWall and colleagues (2011) found no association between attachment anxiety and infidelity.Infidelitywasoperationalised in a variety of ways (e.g., attitudes toward infidelity, engagement in overt or physical extradyadic behaviours, interest in meeting alternative partners, a validated selfreport wherein participants rated how emotionally and physically intimate they had been with an alternative partner). This final method of operationalising infidelity most closely resembles the way the current study wished to define levels of extradyadic behaviour, but in DeWall et al. (2011), the ratings were summed to create a composite infidelity index after items showed high reliability. Considering the desire of anxiously attached individuals to feel close and connected to important others (e.g., DeWall et al., 2011), measuring a range of emotional extradyadic behaviours, and not just interest in or physical attraction to alternatives, may be more important for linking anxious attachment to infidelity. This may be why a robust set of studies supporting associations between avoidant attachment and infidelity (described below) did not find significant associations between anxious attachment and infidelity.
Research on attachment avoidance paints a clearerpicture, likely driven by avoidant individuals’ fear of intimacy and desire for more independence (Brennan et al., 1998). Avoidant individuals showed greater interest in alternatives and a greater propensity for infidelity — associations that were mediated by lower levels of relationship commitment (DeWall et al., 2011). Additional work has found associations between attachment avoidance and infidelity (Fish et al., 2012) and that avoidant individuals reported the highest number of extradyadic partners compared with both anxious and secure individuals (Allen & Baucom, 2004). Thus, greater attachment avoidance may be associated with a higher likelihood of engaging in behaviours of sexual infidelity, such as kissing, heavy petting and sexual intercourse, particularly in more casual situations (Feeney, Noller, & Patty, 1993; Fraley, Davis, & Shaver, 1998). Moreover, attachment avoidance might also be associated with the greater use of deceptive extradyadic behaviours, as avoidantly attached individualstendtodislikeconflict(Domingue&Mollen, 2009). Using deception may be a way to avoid potential conflict situations with partners and maintain emotional and general independence. In contrast, Russell et al.’s (2013) longitudinal studies on newlywed couples found no association between one’s own attachment avoidance and infidelity; however, in one of the two studies, a partner effect of attachment avoidance on infidelity emerged, where one was less likely to cheat if his or her partner was higher in avoidance. These studies, which ran for three to four years, asked both spouses to report on their own perpetrated infidelity or discovery of their partner’s infidelity at each time point, with the definition of infidelity being left open to each participant.
Abstract: Extradyadic involvement — emotional, romantic, or sexual involvement with another person outside of one's romantic relationship — may have serious personal and relational consequences. The current research examines extradyadic involvement in two samples of individuals in relationships and identifies subgroups of people based on their engagement in different types of extradyadic behaviour. To assess involvement in such behaviour, we created a new behavioural inventory intended to broaden the conceptualisation of types of extradyadic behaviours. Subgroups of individuals who engage in these behaviours were extracted using latent class analysis. Study 1 assessed undergraduate students in relationships (N = 339), and results revealed four classes of individuals: loyal, confiding, deceptive, and unfaithful. Follow-up tests demonstrated that these classes of individuals differed significantly in ways that are consistent with the investment model and attachment theory. Study 2 (N = 202) replicated the four-class solution, as well as the group differences in relationship functioning and attachment orientations. Results suggest theoretically consistent typologies of extradyadic behaviour that may be useful in differentiating deceptive behaviour in close relationships in a more precise way.
---
In contrast, a series of eight studies by DeWall and colleagues (2011) found no association between attachment anxiety and infidelity.Infidelitywasoperationalised in a variety of ways (e.g., attitudes toward infidelity, engagement in overt or physical extradyadic behaviours, interest in meeting alternative partners, a validated selfreport wherein participants rated how emotionally and physically intimate they had been with an alternative partner). This final method of operationalising infidelity most closely resembles the way the current study wished to define levels of extradyadic behaviour, but in DeWall et al. (2011), the ratings were summed to create a composite infidelity index after items showed high reliability. Considering the desire of anxiously attached individuals to feel close and connected to important others (e.g., DeWall et al., 2011), measuring a range of emotional extradyadic behaviours, and not just interest in or physical attraction to alternatives, may be more important for linking anxious attachment to infidelity. This may be why a robust set of studies supporting associations between avoidant attachment and infidelity (described below) did not find significant associations between anxious attachment and infidelity.
Research on attachment avoidance paints a clearerpicture, likely driven by avoidant individuals’ fear of intimacy and desire for more independence (Brennan et al., 1998). Avoidant individuals showed greater interest in alternatives and a greater propensity for infidelity — associations that were mediated by lower levels of relationship commitment (DeWall et al., 2011). Additional work has found associations between attachment avoidance and infidelity (Fish et al., 2012) and that avoidant individuals reported the highest number of extradyadic partners compared with both anxious and secure individuals (Allen & Baucom, 2004). Thus, greater attachment avoidance may be associated with a higher likelihood of engaging in behaviours of sexual infidelity, such as kissing, heavy petting and sexual intercourse, particularly in more casual situations (Feeney, Noller, & Patty, 1993; Fraley, Davis, & Shaver, 1998). Moreover, attachment avoidance might also be associated with the greater use of deceptive extradyadic behaviours, as avoidantly attached individualstendtodislikeconflict(Domingue&Mollen, 2009). Using deception may be a way to avoid potential conflict situations with partners and maintain emotional and general independence. In contrast, Russell et al.’s (2013) longitudinal studies on newlywed couples found no association between one’s own attachment avoidance and infidelity; however, in one of the two studies, a partner effect of attachment avoidance on infidelity emerged, where one was less likely to cheat if his or her partner was higher in avoidance. These studies, which ran for three to four years, asked both spouses to report on their own perpetrated infidelity or discovery of their partner’s infidelity at each time point, with the definition of infidelity being left open to each participant.
Men's relationship satisfaction, passionate love, & liking were more driven by touch, whereas those of women's were more driven by hearing; higher differential valuing predicted higher passionate love for both
Miron, A., Jiang, L., Weisensel, K., Patterson, M., & Rizo, F. (2018). Testing a Transactional Model of Romantic Sensory Interactions in Male and Female Romantic Intimates. Journal of Relationships Research 2018, 9, e2. doi:10.1017/jrr.2018.2
Abstract: We propose a transactional model of romantic sensory interactions, according to which male and female intimates adapt to the specific context of their romantic relationships by adopting different sensory domains of interactions with their partners. To test this model, we measured romantic couples’ orientations toward using sensory modalities of romantic relating, and the importance of these modalities (N = 137 couples). Although not all hypotheses were supported, the findings suggest that men's relationship satisfaction, passionate love, and liking were driven by a stronger orientation toward touch, whereas women's relationship satisfaction, passionate love, liking, and commitment were predicted by a stronger preference for hearing. Higher differential valuing of touch and bodily sensations predicted higher passionate love for both men and women, suggesting that these sensory modalities have similar functions for both genders — to maintain sexual desire and passionate love for the partner. These findings underscore the importance of romantic couples’ differential sensory orientations in maintaining satisfying relationships.
Abstract: We propose a transactional model of romantic sensory interactions, according to which male and female intimates adapt to the specific context of their romantic relationships by adopting different sensory domains of interactions with their partners. To test this model, we measured romantic couples’ orientations toward using sensory modalities of romantic relating, and the importance of these modalities (N = 137 couples). Although not all hypotheses were supported, the findings suggest that men's relationship satisfaction, passionate love, and liking were driven by a stronger orientation toward touch, whereas women's relationship satisfaction, passionate love, liking, and commitment were predicted by a stronger preference for hearing. Higher differential valuing of touch and bodily sensations predicted higher passionate love for both men and women, suggesting that these sensory modalities have similar functions for both genders — to maintain sexual desire and passionate love for the partner. These findings underscore the importance of romantic couples’ differential sensory orientations in maintaining satisfying relationships.
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Ratcliffe: Europe "has green taxes that, at best, can be described as foolish as they are having the opposite effect to how they were intended"
INEOS's Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Open Letter to the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Feb 2019, https://www.ineos.com/news/ineos-group/letter-to-the-european-commission-president-jean-claude-juncker
Dear President Juncker,
“Are you quite mad?” was the reaction of one well known CEO of a European chemicals company when INEOS publicly announced recently its huge €3 billion petrochemicals expansion in Antwerp in January of this year. The first of its kind for a generation.
Nobody but nobody in my business seriously invests in Europe. They haven’t for a generation. Everyone in my business does however invest in the USA, Middle East or China, or indeed, all three. The USA is in the middle of a $200 billion spending spree on 333 new chemical plants. China has spent that sum annually for many years, constructing its own chemical building blocks.
Europe, not so long ago the world leader in chemicals, has seen its market share in the last decade alone collapse from 30% world market share to 15%. This is an industry that employs over 1 million people in high quality jobs in Europe and five times that in indirect jobs. Worldwide, chemicals is an immense industry, considerably bigger than the automotive sector with revenues approaching $4 trillion.
Europe is no longer competitive. It has the worlds most expensive energy and labour laws that are uninviting for employers. Worst of all, it has green taxes that, at best, can be described as foolish as they are having the opposite effect to how they were intended.
Europe going it alone with green taxes prevents renewal as it frightens away investment into the open arms of the USA and China. It also pushes manufacturing to other parts of the world that care less for the environment. To get a sense of the importance of renewal a 70s car will emit 50 times the pollution of a modern day car. Chemical plants are not so different.
The USA is fully in the process of renewal. Immense building programmes are installing the world’s finest chemical technology which has a fraction of the emissions we saw a generation ago. Old units are being shut down. The USA doesn’t have green taxes but it does insist on the very highest environmental standards before it issues permits for new builds.So let’s step back. Europe remains with an industry built one or two generations ago with old environmental standards and has frightened away new investment for a generation with heavy green taxes. America has welcomed new investment but on condition that it has the highest possible environmental standards. It has created investment, new jobs and improved environmental emissions. Europe has done the opposite on all fronts. I know who looks smarter.
I have an intense interest in preserving the environment. I see wildlife being slaughtered in Africa, forests burning all over the world, fish stocks being decimated and I fully believe that we must arrest global warming.
But Europe ‘going it alone’ with green taxes as its main strategy has got it wrong.
As for the question posed to me at the outset, “Are we mad?”, the answer is no. INEOS is uniquely able to import huge quantities of cheap energy and feedstocks from the USA and we have no ‘market risk’ as all the product that we will produce will be consumed by our own INEOS businesses in Europe.
But don’t expect others to follow. They will be welcomed by the USA and China with a warm smile and a good strategy.
Europe, reminds me somewhat of the Charge of the Light Brigade, immortalised in Tennyson’s wonderful poem, full of valour and good intention but the outcome will not be pretty.
Yours Sincerely
Dear President Juncker,
“Are you quite mad?” was the reaction of one well known CEO of a European chemicals company when INEOS publicly announced recently its huge €3 billion petrochemicals expansion in Antwerp in January of this year. The first of its kind for a generation.
Nobody but nobody in my business seriously invests in Europe. They haven’t for a generation. Everyone in my business does however invest in the USA, Middle East or China, or indeed, all three. The USA is in the middle of a $200 billion spending spree on 333 new chemical plants. China has spent that sum annually for many years, constructing its own chemical building blocks.
Europe, not so long ago the world leader in chemicals, has seen its market share in the last decade alone collapse from 30% world market share to 15%. This is an industry that employs over 1 million people in high quality jobs in Europe and five times that in indirect jobs. Worldwide, chemicals is an immense industry, considerably bigger than the automotive sector with revenues approaching $4 trillion.
Europe is no longer competitive. It has the worlds most expensive energy and labour laws that are uninviting for employers. Worst of all, it has green taxes that, at best, can be described as foolish as they are having the opposite effect to how they were intended.
Europe going it alone with green taxes prevents renewal as it frightens away investment into the open arms of the USA and China. It also pushes manufacturing to other parts of the world that care less for the environment. To get a sense of the importance of renewal a 70s car will emit 50 times the pollution of a modern day car. Chemical plants are not so different.
The USA is fully in the process of renewal. Immense building programmes are installing the world’s finest chemical technology which has a fraction of the emissions we saw a generation ago. Old units are being shut down. The USA doesn’t have green taxes but it does insist on the very highest environmental standards before it issues permits for new builds.So let’s step back. Europe remains with an industry built one or two generations ago with old environmental standards and has frightened away new investment for a generation with heavy green taxes. America has welcomed new investment but on condition that it has the highest possible environmental standards. It has created investment, new jobs and improved environmental emissions. Europe has done the opposite on all fronts. I know who looks smarter.
I have an intense interest in preserving the environment. I see wildlife being slaughtered in Africa, forests burning all over the world, fish stocks being decimated and I fully believe that we must arrest global warming.
But Europe ‘going it alone’ with green taxes as its main strategy has got it wrong.
As for the question posed to me at the outset, “Are we mad?”, the answer is no. INEOS is uniquely able to import huge quantities of cheap energy and feedstocks from the USA and we have no ‘market risk’ as all the product that we will produce will be consumed by our own INEOS businesses in Europe.
But don’t expect others to follow. They will be welcomed by the USA and China with a warm smile and a good strategy.
Europe, reminds me somewhat of the Charge of the Light Brigade, immortalised in Tennyson’s wonderful poem, full of valour and good intention but the outcome will not be pretty.
Yours Sincerely
Violent video game engagement is not associated with adolescents' aggressive behaviour: No evidence for a critical tipping point relating violent game engagement to aggressive behaviour
Violent video game engagement is not associated with adolescents' aggressive behaviour: evidence from a registered report. Andrew K. Przybylski and Netta Weinstein. Royal Society Open Science, Volume 6, Issue 2. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.171474
Abstract: In this study, we investigated the extent to which adolescents who spend time playing violent video games exhibit higher levels of aggressive behaviour when compared with those who do not. A large sample of British adolescent participants (n = 1004) aged 14 and 15 years and an equal number of their carers were interviewed. Young people provided reports of their recent gaming experiences. Further, the violent contents of these games were coded using official EU and US ratings, and carers provided evaluations of their adolescents' aggressive behaviours in the past month. Following a preregistered analysis plan, multiple regression analyses tested the hypothesis that recent violent game play is linearly and positively related to carer assessments of aggressive behaviour. Results did not support this prediction, nor did they support the idea that the relationship between these factors follows a nonlinear parabolic function. There was no evidence for a critical tipping point relating violent game engagement to aggressive behaviour. Sensitivity and exploratory analyses indicated these null effects extended across multiple operationalizations of violent game engagement and when the focus was on another behavioural outcome, namely, prosocial behaviour. The discussion presents an interpretation of this pattern of effects in terms of both the ongoing scientific and policy debates around violent video games, and emerging standards for robust evidence-based policy concerning young people's technology use.
Abstract: In this study, we investigated the extent to which adolescents who spend time playing violent video games exhibit higher levels of aggressive behaviour when compared with those who do not. A large sample of British adolescent participants (n = 1004) aged 14 and 15 years and an equal number of their carers were interviewed. Young people provided reports of their recent gaming experiences. Further, the violent contents of these games were coded using official EU and US ratings, and carers provided evaluations of their adolescents' aggressive behaviours in the past month. Following a preregistered analysis plan, multiple regression analyses tested the hypothesis that recent violent game play is linearly and positively related to carer assessments of aggressive behaviour. Results did not support this prediction, nor did they support the idea that the relationship between these factors follows a nonlinear parabolic function. There was no evidence for a critical tipping point relating violent game engagement to aggressive behaviour. Sensitivity and exploratory analyses indicated these null effects extended across multiple operationalizations of violent game engagement and when the focus was on another behavioural outcome, namely, prosocial behaviour. The discussion presents an interpretation of this pattern of effects in terms of both the ongoing scientific and policy debates around violent video games, and emerging standards for robust evidence-based policy concerning young people's technology use.
Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of information? They view polls as more credible when majority opinion matched their opinion
All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling. Gabriel J. Madson. D. Sunshine Hillygus. Political Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-019-09532-1
Abstract: Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of information? Experts tend to evaluate the credibility of polls based on the survey methods used, vendor track record, and data transparency, but it is unclear if the public does the same. In two different experimental studies—one focusing on candidate evaluations in the 2016 U.S. election and one on a policy issue—we find a significant factor in respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll results themselves. Respondents viewed polls as more credible when majority opinion matched their opinion. Moreover, we find evidence of attitude polarization after viewing polling results, suggesting motivated reasoning in the evaluations of political polls. These findings indicate that evaluations of polls are biased by motivated reasoning and suggest that such biases could constrain the possible impact of polls on political decision making.
Keywords: Polling Poll evaluation Public opinion Motivated reasoning Cognitive bias
Abstract: Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of information? Experts tend to evaluate the credibility of polls based on the survey methods used, vendor track record, and data transparency, but it is unclear if the public does the same. In two different experimental studies—one focusing on candidate evaluations in the 2016 U.S. election and one on a policy issue—we find a significant factor in respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll results themselves. Respondents viewed polls as more credible when majority opinion matched their opinion. Moreover, we find evidence of attitude polarization after viewing polling results, suggesting motivated reasoning in the evaluations of political polls. These findings indicate that evaluations of polls are biased by motivated reasoning and suggest that such biases could constrain the possible impact of polls on political decision making.
Keywords: Polling Poll evaluation Public opinion Motivated reasoning Cognitive bias
Sex Differences in Human Olfaction: A Meta-Analysis
Sex Differences in Human Olfaction: A Meta-Analysis. Piotr Sorokowski, Maciej Karwowski, Michał Misiak, Michalina Konstancja Marczak, Martyna Dziekan, Thomas Hummel and Agnieszka Sorokowska. Front. Psychol., 13 February 2019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00242
Although the view that women's olfactory abilities outperform men's is taken for granted, some studies involving large samples suggested that male and female olfactory abilities are actually similar. To address this discrepancy, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing studies on olfaction, targeting possible sex differences. The analyzed sample comprised n = 8 848 (5 065 women and 3 783 men) for olfactory threshold (as measured with the Sniffin Sticks Test; SST), n = 8 067 (4 496 women and 3 571 men) for discrimination (SST), n = 13 670 (7 501 women and 6 169 men) for identification (SST), and a total sample of n = 7 154 (3 866 women and 3 288 men) for works using University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT). We conducted separate meta-analyses for each aspect of olfaction: identification, discrimination and threshold. The results of our meta-analysis indicate that women generally outperform men in olfactory abilities. What is more, they do so in every aspect of olfaction analyzed in the current study. However, the effect sizes were weak and ranged between g = 0.08 and g = 0.30. We discuss our findings in the context of factors that potentially shape sex differences in olfaction. Nevertheless, although our findings seem to confirm the “common knowledge” on female olfactory superiority, it needs to be emphasized that the effect sizes we observed were notably small.
Although the view that women's olfactory abilities outperform men's is taken for granted, some studies involving large samples suggested that male and female olfactory abilities are actually similar. To address this discrepancy, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing studies on olfaction, targeting possible sex differences. The analyzed sample comprised n = 8 848 (5 065 women and 3 783 men) for olfactory threshold (as measured with the Sniffin Sticks Test; SST), n = 8 067 (4 496 women and 3 571 men) for discrimination (SST), n = 13 670 (7 501 women and 6 169 men) for identification (SST), and a total sample of n = 7 154 (3 866 women and 3 288 men) for works using University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT). We conducted separate meta-analyses for each aspect of olfaction: identification, discrimination and threshold. The results of our meta-analysis indicate that women generally outperform men in olfactory abilities. What is more, they do so in every aspect of olfaction analyzed in the current study. However, the effect sizes were weak and ranged between g = 0.08 and g = 0.30. We discuss our findings in the context of factors that potentially shape sex differences in olfaction. Nevertheless, although our findings seem to confirm the “common knowledge” on female olfactory superiority, it needs to be emphasized that the effect sizes we observed were notably small.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
High occupational level is associated with poor response to the treatment of depression
High occupational level is associated with poor response to the treatment of depression: A replication study. Laura Mandelli et al. European Neuropsychopharmacology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroneuro.2019.01.107
Abstract
Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of disability and inability to work. There is evidence that occupational factors may precipitate a MDD episode and interfere with the recovery process. In a previous investigation, we found that those employed in high occupational levels had a worse outcome after treatment for depression (Mandelli et al., 2016). The aim of the present study was to further investigate response to treatments for depression according to occupational status on an independent sample of MDD patients.
Six hundred and forty-seven (647) subjects with a stable working occupation were taken from a larger independent sample of MDD patients evaluated for response and resistance to treatment for depression, after at least one adequate treatment trial. Three broad occupational categories were considered: ‘manager’, ‘white-collar’, ‘blue-collar’ and ‘self-employed’.
Managers had the highest rate of non-response and resistance to treatments. White-collar workers also had high non-response and resistance rates. At the opposite, Blue-collar workers had significantly lower rates of non-response and resistance. Self-employed were in between White- and Blue-collar workers and did not significantly differ from the other occupational categories.
The findings of this replication study substantially support our previous observations. MDD patients employed in high-middle occupations may have a less favorable outcome after standard treatments of depression. Working stressful condition and other psychosocial factors at work should be investigated more closely in relation to treatment outcomes in MDD.
Abstract
Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of disability and inability to work. There is evidence that occupational factors may precipitate a MDD episode and interfere with the recovery process. In a previous investigation, we found that those employed in high occupational levels had a worse outcome after treatment for depression (Mandelli et al., 2016). The aim of the present study was to further investigate response to treatments for depression according to occupational status on an independent sample of MDD patients.
Six hundred and forty-seven (647) subjects with a stable working occupation were taken from a larger independent sample of MDD patients evaluated for response and resistance to treatment for depression, after at least one adequate treatment trial. Three broad occupational categories were considered: ‘manager’, ‘white-collar’, ‘blue-collar’ and ‘self-employed’.
Managers had the highest rate of non-response and resistance to treatments. White-collar workers also had high non-response and resistance rates. At the opposite, Blue-collar workers had significantly lower rates of non-response and resistance. Self-employed were in between White- and Blue-collar workers and did not significantly differ from the other occupational categories.
The findings of this replication study substantially support our previous observations. MDD patients employed in high-middle occupations may have a less favorable outcome after standard treatments of depression. Working stressful condition and other psychosocial factors at work should be investigated more closely in relation to treatment outcomes in MDD.
Consumers tend to consume too rapidly, growing tired of initially well-liked stimuli such as a favorite snack/an enjoyable video game more quickly than they would if they slowed consumption
Galak, Jeffrey; Kruger, Justin; Loewenstein, George (2018): Too Much of a Good Thing: Insensitivity to Rate of Consumption Leads to Unforeseen Satiation. https://kilthub.cmu.edu/articles/Too_Much_of_a_Good_Thing_Insensitivity_to_Rate_of_Consumption_Leads_to_Unforeseen_Satiation/6708902/1
Abstract: Consumers are often able to choose how often to consume the things they enjoy. The research presented here suggests that consumers tend to consume too rapidly, growing tired of initially well-liked stimuli such as a favorite snack (Experiments 1 and 4) or an enjoyable video game (Experiments 2 and 3) more quickly than they would if they slowed consumption. The results also suggest that this because of an underestimation of the extent to which breaks reset adaptation. The results present a paradox: Participants who chose their own rate of consumption enjoyed the stimulus less than participants who had a slower rate of consumption chosen for them.
Abstract: Consumers are often able to choose how often to consume the things they enjoy. The research presented here suggests that consumers tend to consume too rapidly, growing tired of initially well-liked stimuli such as a favorite snack (Experiments 1 and 4) or an enjoyable video game (Experiments 2 and 3) more quickly than they would if they slowed consumption. The results also suggest that this because of an underestimation of the extent to which breaks reset adaptation. The results present a paradox: Participants who chose their own rate of consumption enjoyed the stimulus less than participants who had a slower rate of consumption chosen for them.
Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo: The returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk; & full repudiation is rare, the median haircut is below 50%
Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo. Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph TrebeschNBER Working Paper No. 25543, February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25543
Abstract: This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns averaged 7% annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of around 4% above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and with the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, we show that full repudiation is rare; the median haircut is below 50%.
Abstract: This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns averaged 7% annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of around 4% above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and with the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, we show that full repudiation is rare; the median haircut is below 50%.
Given the inherent complexity & ambiguity of the political realm, ideological uncertainty undermines political efficacy & interest, motivating individuals to disengage from participating in electoral politics
Ideological uncertainty and investment of the self in politics. Joseph A.Vitriola et al. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Volume 82, May 2019, Pages 85-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2019.01.005
Abstract: Ideological orientation may provide some citizens with an efficient heuristic for guiding their political judgment. Accordingly, one might expect that ideological uncertainty would lead individuals to engage more deeply with the political domain in order to acquire a sufficient level of subjective certainty that the ideological orientation they have adopted is the “right” one. Given the inherent complexity and ambiguity of the political realm, however, we propose that ideological uncertainty should instead undermine political efficacy and interest, thereby motivating individuals to disengage and withdrawal from participating in electoral politics. Using both correlational and experimental methods, we conduct four studies on both convenience and representative samples in the context of two electoral contexts to test this hypothesis. Study 1 (N = 343) and Study 2 (N = 1054) demonstrate that ideological uncertainty covaries with reduced levels of political engagement and participation in the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, respectively. Study 3 (N = 170) and Study 4 (N = 798) replicate and extend the results of Study 1 and 2 by experimentally manipulating ideological uncertainty using an original and innovative false-feedback paradigm. We demonstrate the causal effect of ideological uncertainty on political engagement (independent of demographic variables, political knowledge, and ideological extremity and conviction), and find that it is particularly pronounced among individuals who reflect on the meaning of their political judgment and behaviors for their political orientation. Implications for political choice and behavior are considered.
Abstract: Ideological orientation may provide some citizens with an efficient heuristic for guiding their political judgment. Accordingly, one might expect that ideological uncertainty would lead individuals to engage more deeply with the political domain in order to acquire a sufficient level of subjective certainty that the ideological orientation they have adopted is the “right” one. Given the inherent complexity and ambiguity of the political realm, however, we propose that ideological uncertainty should instead undermine political efficacy and interest, thereby motivating individuals to disengage and withdrawal from participating in electoral politics. Using both correlational and experimental methods, we conduct four studies on both convenience and representative samples in the context of two electoral contexts to test this hypothesis. Study 1 (N = 343) and Study 2 (N = 1054) demonstrate that ideological uncertainty covaries with reduced levels of political engagement and participation in the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, respectively. Study 3 (N = 170) and Study 4 (N = 798) replicate and extend the results of Study 1 and 2 by experimentally manipulating ideological uncertainty using an original and innovative false-feedback paradigm. We demonstrate the causal effect of ideological uncertainty on political engagement (independent of demographic variables, political knowledge, and ideological extremity and conviction), and find that it is particularly pronounced among individuals who reflect on the meaning of their political judgment and behaviors for their political orientation. Implications for political choice and behavior are considered.
From 2015... Past research suggests moral behavior is highly inconsistent, which leaves little room for a personological approach to morality; authors reveal a surprisingly large degree of moral consistency
From 2015... A foundation beam for studying morality from a personological point of view: Are individual differences in moral behaviors and thoughts consistent? Peter Meindl et al. Journal of Research in Personality, Volume 59, December 2015, Pages 81-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2015.09.005
Highlights
• Past research suggests moral behavior is highly inconsistent.
• This leaves little room for a personological approach to morality.
• We tested the consistency of real world morality via two experience sampling studies.
• Results reveal a surprisingly large degree of moral consistency.
• Personality appears to have the potential to profoundly impact moral life.
Abstract: Morality is a topic of burgeoning scientific interest, and the relevance of personological factors to moral behavior has interdisciplinary implications for the social sciences, public policy, and philosophy. However, relatively little research has investigated the role of personological factors in moral life, perhaps because of lingering skepticism about the robustness of moral traits. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether morality is consistent across many occasions of everyday life, implying that personological factors play an important role in moral behavior. A novel method of assessing moral behaviors was developed and employed in two experience sampling studies (4075 total observations). Results showed that moral behavior is consistent in many different ways, suggesting that personological factors substantially impact moral life.
Highlights
• Past research suggests moral behavior is highly inconsistent.
• This leaves little room for a personological approach to morality.
• We tested the consistency of real world morality via two experience sampling studies.
• Results reveal a surprisingly large degree of moral consistency.
• Personality appears to have the potential to profoundly impact moral life.
Abstract: Morality is a topic of burgeoning scientific interest, and the relevance of personological factors to moral behavior has interdisciplinary implications for the social sciences, public policy, and philosophy. However, relatively little research has investigated the role of personological factors in moral life, perhaps because of lingering skepticism about the robustness of moral traits. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether morality is consistent across many occasions of everyday life, implying that personological factors play an important role in moral behavior. A novel method of assessing moral behaviors was developed and employed in two experience sampling studies (4075 total observations). Results showed that moral behavior is consistent in many different ways, suggesting that personological factors substantially impact moral life.
Why would people vote to ban a product they regularly consume? This question is at the crux of the controversies over a variety of ballot initiatives restricting certain agricultural production practices
An Experiment on the Vote-Buy Gap with Application to Cage-Free Eggs. Andrew Paul, Jayson Lusk. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.02.005
Highlights
• The vote-buy gap can be replicated in the lab.
• Many people vote to ban a product they purchase.
• The behavior is not driven by a sample selection effect.
• Information asymmetry may be one driver of the effect.
Abstract: Why would people vote to ban a product they regularly consume? This question is at the crux of the controversies over a variety of ballot initiatives restricting certain agricultural production practices. This research moves the question to a controlled laboratory setting with real food and real money to explore the underlying causes of the so-called vote-buy gap. Respondents first made a shopping choice between snack options, some of which included eggs from caged hens as an ingredient. After selecting a snack, participants then voted on a proposition to ban snack options that utilized eggs from caged hens. We show that the vote-buy gap can be replicated in the lab: in the control condition, approximately 80% of the individuals who chose snacks with caged eggs when shopping subsequently voted to ban snacks with caged eggs. The finding rules out the suggestion that the vote-buy gap is an illusion or statistical artifact, as it can be re-created in an experimental lab setting at an individual level. A number of experimental treatments were conducted to test hypotheses related to the underlying causes of the vote-buy gap. We found qualified support for the hypothesis that the vote-buy gap is a result of information asymmetries, but little evidence that it results from public good or expressive voting phenomena.
Highlights
• The vote-buy gap can be replicated in the lab.
• Many people vote to ban a product they purchase.
• The behavior is not driven by a sample selection effect.
• Information asymmetry may be one driver of the effect.
Abstract: Why would people vote to ban a product they regularly consume? This question is at the crux of the controversies over a variety of ballot initiatives restricting certain agricultural production practices. This research moves the question to a controlled laboratory setting with real food and real money to explore the underlying causes of the so-called vote-buy gap. Respondents first made a shopping choice between snack options, some of which included eggs from caged hens as an ingredient. After selecting a snack, participants then voted on a proposition to ban snack options that utilized eggs from caged hens. We show that the vote-buy gap can be replicated in the lab: in the control condition, approximately 80% of the individuals who chose snacks with caged eggs when shopping subsequently voted to ban snacks with caged eggs. The finding rules out the suggestion that the vote-buy gap is an illusion or statistical artifact, as it can be re-created in an experimental lab setting at an individual level. A number of experimental treatments were conducted to test hypotheses related to the underlying causes of the vote-buy gap. We found qualified support for the hypothesis that the vote-buy gap is a result of information asymmetries, but little evidence that it results from public good or expressive voting phenomena.
Rolf Degen summarizing: 38% of subjects derived pleasure from purportedly grinding live bugs, some demanded even more than they had been granted
Psychopathy subfactors distinctively predispose to dispositional and state-level of sadistic pleasure.. Jill Lobbestael, Martijn van Teffelen, Roy F. Baumeister. Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbtep.2019.02.003
Highlights
• Sadistic pleasure has devastating interpersonal and societal consequences.
• The current knowledge on non-sexual, subclinical forms of sadistic pleasure is poor.
• Coldheartedness showed the strongest relationship to sadistic pleasure.
• Increased Coldheartedness related to more pleasure and less guilt after bug grinding.
Abstract
Background and objectives: Sadistic pleasure — the enjoyment of harm-infliction to others — can have devastating interpersonal and societal consequences. The current knowledge on non-sexual, subclinical forms of sadistic pleasure is poor. The present study therefore focussed on the personality correlates of sadistic pleasure and investigated the relationship between the different subcomponents of psychopathy and both dispositional and state-level sadistic pleasure.
Method: N = 120 males drawn from a community sample filled out questionnaires to assess their level of psychopathy and dispositional sadism. Then, participants engaged in a bug-grinder procedure in which they were led to believe that they were killing pill bugs. The positive affect they reported after ostensibly killing the bugs served as measures of sadistic pleasure. The bug-grinding task was repeated a second time after installing either a positive victim attitude combined with giving human names to the bugs, or a negative victim attitude combined with labeling the bugs with numbers.
Results: Although the Self-centred Impulsivity component of psychopathy had some relevance to sadism, it was the Coldheartedness subscale that showed the strongest relationship to sadistic pleasure. Specifically, increased Coldheartedness was uniquely related to more positive affect, along with less guilt after bug grinding.
Limitations: Drawbacks of the study include the unique reliance on a male, community sample, and the potential impact of demand characteristics, including a suggestion that the participant put at least some bugs into the grinder.
Conclusions: Our findings underscore the differential predictive value of psychopathy components for sadistic pleasure. Coldheartedness can be considered especially disturbing because of its unique relationship to harm-infliction of the most irreversible nature (i.e. killing), and gaining pleasure out of it.
Highlights
• Sadistic pleasure has devastating interpersonal and societal consequences.
• The current knowledge on non-sexual, subclinical forms of sadistic pleasure is poor.
• Coldheartedness showed the strongest relationship to sadistic pleasure.
• Increased Coldheartedness related to more pleasure and less guilt after bug grinding.
Abstract
Background and objectives: Sadistic pleasure — the enjoyment of harm-infliction to others — can have devastating interpersonal and societal consequences. The current knowledge on non-sexual, subclinical forms of sadistic pleasure is poor. The present study therefore focussed on the personality correlates of sadistic pleasure and investigated the relationship between the different subcomponents of psychopathy and both dispositional and state-level sadistic pleasure.
Method: N = 120 males drawn from a community sample filled out questionnaires to assess their level of psychopathy and dispositional sadism. Then, participants engaged in a bug-grinder procedure in which they were led to believe that they were killing pill bugs. The positive affect they reported after ostensibly killing the bugs served as measures of sadistic pleasure. The bug-grinding task was repeated a second time after installing either a positive victim attitude combined with giving human names to the bugs, or a negative victim attitude combined with labeling the bugs with numbers.
Results: Although the Self-centred Impulsivity component of psychopathy had some relevance to sadism, it was the Coldheartedness subscale that showed the strongest relationship to sadistic pleasure. Specifically, increased Coldheartedness was uniquely related to more positive affect, along with less guilt after bug grinding.
Limitations: Drawbacks of the study include the unique reliance on a male, community sample, and the potential impact of demand characteristics, including a suggestion that the participant put at least some bugs into the grinder.
Conclusions: Our findings underscore the differential predictive value of psychopathy components for sadistic pleasure. Coldheartedness can be considered especially disturbing because of its unique relationship to harm-infliction of the most irreversible nature (i.e. killing), and gaining pleasure out of it.
Monday, February 11, 2019
Universal Basic Income: Would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households
Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries. Hilary W. Hoynes, Jesse Rothstein. NBER Working Paper No. 25538, February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25538
Abstract: We discuss the potential role of Universal Basic Incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well developed, if often incomplete, safety nets. We develop a framework for describing transfer programs, flexible enough to encompass most existing programs as well as UBIs, and use this framework to compare various UBIs to the existing constellation of programs in the United States. A UBI would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households. A UBI large enough to increase transfers to low-income families would be enormously expensive. We review the labor supply literature for evidence on the likely impacts of a UBI. We argue that the ongoing UBI pilot studies will do little to resolve the major outstanding questions.
Abstract: We discuss the potential role of Universal Basic Incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well developed, if often incomplete, safety nets. We develop a framework for describing transfer programs, flexible enough to encompass most existing programs as well as UBIs, and use this framework to compare various UBIs to the existing constellation of programs in the United States. A UBI would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households. A UBI large enough to increase transfers to low-income families would be enormously expensive. We review the labor supply literature for evidence on the likely impacts of a UBI. We argue that the ongoing UBI pilot studies will do little to resolve the major outstanding questions.
Intergenerational Mobility in Africa: Upward mobility is higher & downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence (higher urbanization & employment in services & manufacturing)
Intergenerational Mobility in Africa. Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, Elias Papaioannou. NBER Working Paper No. 25534. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25534
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.
Genetic predisposition for Alzheimer's Disease correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings
Understanding the Correlation between Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk, Wealth, and the Composition of Wealth Holdings. Su H. Shin, Dean R. Lillard, Jay Bhattacharya.
NBER Working Paper No. 25526. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25526
Abstract: We investigate how the genetic risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) relates to saving behavior. Using nationally representative data from the 1992-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we find that genetic predisposition for AD correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings. People with higher Alzheimer’s Disease polygenic risk score (PGS) hold roughly 9 percent more wealth in CDs (hands-off assets) and around 11 percent, 15 percent, and 7 percent less wealth in stocks, IRAs, and other financial assets (hands-on assets) respectively. We explore three hypotheses that could explain these correlations. We hypothesize that people with high risk of AD choose different portfolios because: (i) they know their polygenic risk of developing Alzheimer’s Disease and related dementia, (ii) they have lower cognitive capacity, and (iii) the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) process that generated the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS failed to fully account for the aging process. Our extended model results do not support the first two hypotheses. Consistent with the third hypothesis, the interaction between age and the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS explains the correlation between genetic traits and asset holdings
NBER Working Paper No. 25526. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25526
Abstract: We investigate how the genetic risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) relates to saving behavior. Using nationally representative data from the 1992-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we find that genetic predisposition for AD correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings. People with higher Alzheimer’s Disease polygenic risk score (PGS) hold roughly 9 percent more wealth in CDs (hands-off assets) and around 11 percent, 15 percent, and 7 percent less wealth in stocks, IRAs, and other financial assets (hands-on assets) respectively. We explore three hypotheses that could explain these correlations. We hypothesize that people with high risk of AD choose different portfolios because: (i) they know their polygenic risk of developing Alzheimer’s Disease and related dementia, (ii) they have lower cognitive capacity, and (iii) the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) process that generated the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS failed to fully account for the aging process. Our extended model results do not support the first two hypotheses. Consistent with the third hypothesis, the interaction between age and the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS explains the correlation between genetic traits and asset holdings
Arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels; greater effect is among the poor
Poor Sleep: Sunset Time and Human Capital Production. Maulik Jagnani. Jan 15 2019. https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ojttz8d9leco4n/jagnani_jmp.pdf
Abstract: This paper provides evidence that arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels. I show later sunset reduces children’s sleep: when the sun sets later, children go to bed later; by contrast, wake-up times do not respond to solar cues. Sleep-deprived students decrease study effort, consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of effort. Overall, school-age children exposed to later sunsets attain fewer years of education and are less likely to complete primary and middle school. Later sunsets are also associated with fewer hours of sleep and lower wages among adults. The non-poor adjust their sleep schedules when the sun sets later; sunset-induced sleep deficits are most pronounced among the poor, especially in periods when households face severe financial constraints.
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I find that later sunset causes school-age children to begin sleep later, but does not affect wake-up times. An hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in sunset time reduces children’s sleep by 30 minutes. I also show that later sunset reduces students’ time spent on homework or studying, and time spent on formal and informal work by child laborers,while increasing time spent on indoor leisure for all children. This result is consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of study effort for students and work effort for child laborers.
The second part of the paper examines the consequent lifetime impacts of later sunset on stock indicators of children’s academic outcomes. I use nationally-representative data from the 2015 India Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate how children’s education outcomes co-vary with annual average sunset time across eastern and western locations within a district. I find that an hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in annual average sunset time reduces years of education by 0.8 years, and children in geographic locations with later sunset are less likely to complete primary and middle school.
Abstract: This paper provides evidence that arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels. I show later sunset reduces children’s sleep: when the sun sets later, children go to bed later; by contrast, wake-up times do not respond to solar cues. Sleep-deprived students decrease study effort, consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of effort. Overall, school-age children exposed to later sunsets attain fewer years of education and are less likely to complete primary and middle school. Later sunsets are also associated with fewer hours of sleep and lower wages among adults. The non-poor adjust their sleep schedules when the sun sets later; sunset-induced sleep deficits are most pronounced among the poor, especially in periods when households face severe financial constraints.
---
I find that later sunset causes school-age children to begin sleep later, but does not affect wake-up times. An hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in sunset time reduces children’s sleep by 30 minutes. I also show that later sunset reduces students’ time spent on homework or studying, and time spent on formal and informal work by child laborers,while increasing time spent on indoor leisure for all children. This result is consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of study effort for students and work effort for child laborers.
The second part of the paper examines the consequent lifetime impacts of later sunset on stock indicators of children’s academic outcomes. I use nationally-representative data from the 2015 India Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate how children’s education outcomes co-vary with annual average sunset time across eastern and western locations within a district. I find that an hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in annual average sunset time reduces years of education by 0.8 years, and children in geographic locations with later sunset are less likely to complete primary and middle school.
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters; ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived; overall, efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016. Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons. NBER Working Paper No. 25522. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25522
Abstract: U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.
Abstract: U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.
Psychological Explanations of How Gender Relates to Perceptions and Outcomes at Trial: Verdicts tend to be harsher for male than female defendants
Psychological Explanations of How Gender Relates to Perceptions and Outcomes at Trial. Tyler N. Livingston, Peter O. Rerick, Monica K. Miller. Advances in Psychology and Law pp 137-173. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-11042-0_5
Abstract: Although the American legal system does not statutorily permit differential civil and criminal trial outcomes on the basis of gender, empirical observations of the effects of gender on trial outcomes are ample yet mixed. For several decades, legal actors have attempted to diminish the effects of gender in the courtroom through Supreme Court rulings, presidential policies, legislation, and modification of language in legal documents. Social scientific research suggests that implicit and explicit processes likely affect how the gender of legal actors (e.g., defendants, victims) relates to trial outcomes. This chapter first discusses a variety of laws and policies designed to curtail gender bias generally (e.g., in employment settings) and in the trial process specifically. Next, the chapter synthesizes empirical research that demonstrates the relationship between gender and trial process and outcomes. This synthesis of the psychological research includes specific emphasis on the gender of five primary legal actors: victims, defendants, attorneys, experts, and legal decision-makers. Then, the chapter offers psychological mechanisms that explain why the gender of legal actors (e.g., jurors, witnesses) might relate to trial outcomes. We include overarching theoretical psychological explanations for the observed effects of gender using the symbolic interaction framework and the influence of gender roles and stereotypes. Finally, we identify deficits in the existing research on the relationship between gender and the trial process, suggesting topics for future empirical examination.
Abstract: Although the American legal system does not statutorily permit differential civil and criminal trial outcomes on the basis of gender, empirical observations of the effects of gender on trial outcomes are ample yet mixed. For several decades, legal actors have attempted to diminish the effects of gender in the courtroom through Supreme Court rulings, presidential policies, legislation, and modification of language in legal documents. Social scientific research suggests that implicit and explicit processes likely affect how the gender of legal actors (e.g., defendants, victims) relates to trial outcomes. This chapter first discusses a variety of laws and policies designed to curtail gender bias generally (e.g., in employment settings) and in the trial process specifically. Next, the chapter synthesizes empirical research that demonstrates the relationship between gender and trial process and outcomes. This synthesis of the psychological research includes specific emphasis on the gender of five primary legal actors: victims, defendants, attorneys, experts, and legal decision-makers. Then, the chapter offers psychological mechanisms that explain why the gender of legal actors (e.g., jurors, witnesses) might relate to trial outcomes. We include overarching theoretical psychological explanations for the observed effects of gender using the symbolic interaction framework and the influence of gender roles and stereotypes. Finally, we identify deficits in the existing research on the relationship between gender and the trial process, suggesting topics for future empirical examination.
About 40% of adults experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship; higher emotional intelligence helped, but little
Mating Performance: Exploring Emotional Intelligence, the Dark Triad, Jealousy and Attachment Effects. Menelaos Apostolou et al. Journal of Relationships Research, Volume 10, 019, e1, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-relationships-research/article/mating-performance-exploring-emotional-intelligence-the-dark-triad-jealousy-and-attachment-effects/F5103416EF564E2CB3C83C91BA5CFA6B
Abstract: A considerable proportion of the population in post-industrial societies experiences substantial difficulties in the domain of mating. The current research attempted to estimate the prevalence rate of poor mating performance and to identify some of its predictors. Two independent studies, which employed a total of 1,358 Greek-speaking men and women, found that about 40% of the participants experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship, or in both areas. Furthermore, emotional intelligence, Dark Triad traits, jealousy, and attachment style were found to be significant predictors of mating performance. In particular, higher emotional intelligence and narcissism were associated with higher performance in mating, while higher psychopathy, jealousy and an avoidant attachment style were associated with lower mating performance.
Abstract: A considerable proportion of the population in post-industrial societies experiences substantial difficulties in the domain of mating. The current research attempted to estimate the prevalence rate of poor mating performance and to identify some of its predictors. Two independent studies, which employed a total of 1,358 Greek-speaking men and women, found that about 40% of the participants experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship, or in both areas. Furthermore, emotional intelligence, Dark Triad traits, jealousy, and attachment style were found to be significant predictors of mating performance. In particular, higher emotional intelligence and narcissism were associated with higher performance in mating, while higher psychopathy, jealousy and an avoidant attachment style were associated with lower mating performance.
In old age, people from higher classes commit more crimes (tax & insurance fraud, theft at work, &c) than those of lower ones; not by need, but to maintain/expand the status already achieved
Alter(n) und Straffälligkeit: Handbuch für Wissenschaft und Praxis. Franziska Kunz, Thomas Görgen. January 2019, DOI: 10.5771/9783845276687-491
And a different world: The Crimes That Old Persons Commit. Oliver J. Keller, Jr., Clyde B. Vedder. The Gerontologist, Volume 8, Issue 1, Part 1, March 01 1968, Pages 43–50, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/8.1_Part_1.43
Check also Old Age and Crime. David O Moberg. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol 43, issue 3, 1953. https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4086&context=jclc
And a different world: The Crimes That Old Persons Commit. Oliver J. Keller, Jr., Clyde B. Vedder. The Gerontologist, Volume 8, Issue 1, Part 1, March 01 1968, Pages 43–50, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/8.1_Part_1.43
Check also Old Age and Crime. David O Moberg. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol 43, issue 3, 1953. https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4086&context=jclc
Detecting a Decline in Serial Homicide: The past decade had almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%)
Yaksic, Enzo, Clare Allely, Raneesha De Silva, Melissa Smith-Inglis, Daniel Konikoff, Kori Ryan, Dan Gordon, et al. 2019. “Detecting a Decline in Serial Homicide: Have We Banished the Devil from the Details?.” SocArXiv. February 11. doi:10.31235/osf.io/esyvg
Abstract
Objectives: The likelihood that serial murderers are responsible for most unresolved homicides and missing persons was examined by investigating the accounting of the phenomenon in the context of a declining prevalence.
Methods: A mixed methods approach was used, consisting of a review of a sample of unresolved homicides, a comparative analysis of the frequency of known serial homicide series and unresolved serial homicide series, and semi-structured interviews of experts.
Results: The past decade contained almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%). Only 282 (1.3%) strangled females made up the 22,444 unresolved homicides reviewed. Most expert respondents thought it unreasonable that any meaningful proportion of missing persons cases are victims of serial homicide.
Conclusions: Technology, shifts in offending behavior, proactive law enforcement action, and vigilance of society have transformed serial killing and aids in viewing offenders as people impacted by societal shifts and cultural norms. The absence of narrative details inhibited some aspects of the review. An exhaustive list of known unresolved serial homicide series remained elusive as some missing persons are never reported. Future research should incorporate those intending to murder serially, but whose efforts were stalled by arrest, imprisonment, or death.
Abstract
Objectives: The likelihood that serial murderers are responsible for most unresolved homicides and missing persons was examined by investigating the accounting of the phenomenon in the context of a declining prevalence.
Methods: A mixed methods approach was used, consisting of a review of a sample of unresolved homicides, a comparative analysis of the frequency of known serial homicide series and unresolved serial homicide series, and semi-structured interviews of experts.
Results: The past decade contained almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%). Only 282 (1.3%) strangled females made up the 22,444 unresolved homicides reviewed. Most expert respondents thought it unreasonable that any meaningful proportion of missing persons cases are victims of serial homicide.
Conclusions: Technology, shifts in offending behavior, proactive law enforcement action, and vigilance of society have transformed serial killing and aids in viewing offenders as people impacted by societal shifts and cultural norms. The absence of narrative details inhibited some aspects of the review. An exhaustive list of known unresolved serial homicide series remained elusive as some missing persons are never reported. Future research should incorporate those intending to murder serially, but whose efforts were stalled by arrest, imprisonment, or death.
Sunday, February 10, 2019
Conspiracy Beliefs and Personaliy Traits: Agreeableness, openness to experience, & the remaining Big Five personality factors were not significantly associated with conspiracy beliefs
A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Psychological Research on Conspiracy Beliefs: Field Characteristics, Measurement Instruments, and Associations With Personality Traits. Andreas Goreis, and Martin Voracek. Front. Psychol., February 11 2019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00205
Abstract: In the last decade, the number of investigations of the beliefs in conspiracy theories has begun to increase in the fields of social, differential, and experimental psychology. A considerable number of variables have been suggested as predictors of conspiracy beliefs, amongst them personality factors such as low agreeableness (as disagreeableness is associated with suspicion and antagonism) and high openness to experience (due to its positive association to seek out unusual and novel ideas). The association between agreeableness, openness to experience and conspiracy beliefs remains unclear in the literature. The present study reviews the literature of psychological studies investigating conspiracy beliefs. Additionally, the association between Big Five personality factors and conspiracy beliefs is analyzed meta-analytically using random-effects models. Ninety-six studies were identified for the systematic review. A comprehensive account of predictors, consequences, operationalization, questionnaires, and most prominent conspiracy theories is presented. For meta-analysis, 74 effect sizes from 13 studies were extracted. The psychological literature on predictors of conspiracy beliefs can be divided in approaches either with a pathological (e.g., paranoia) or socio-political focus (e.g., perceived powerlessness). Generally, there is a lack of theoretical frameworks in this young area of research. Meta-analysis revealed that agreeableness, openness to experience, and the remaining Big Five personality factors were not significantly associated with conspiracy beliefs if effect sizes are aggregated. Considerable heterogeneity in designs and operationalization characterizes the field. This article provides an overview of instrumentation, study designs, and current state of knowledge in an effort toward advancement and consensus in the study of conspiracy beliefs.
Abstract: In the last decade, the number of investigations of the beliefs in conspiracy theories has begun to increase in the fields of social, differential, and experimental psychology. A considerable number of variables have been suggested as predictors of conspiracy beliefs, amongst them personality factors such as low agreeableness (as disagreeableness is associated with suspicion and antagonism) and high openness to experience (due to its positive association to seek out unusual and novel ideas). The association between agreeableness, openness to experience and conspiracy beliefs remains unclear in the literature. The present study reviews the literature of psychological studies investigating conspiracy beliefs. Additionally, the association between Big Five personality factors and conspiracy beliefs is analyzed meta-analytically using random-effects models. Ninety-six studies were identified for the systematic review. A comprehensive account of predictors, consequences, operationalization, questionnaires, and most prominent conspiracy theories is presented. For meta-analysis, 74 effect sizes from 13 studies were extracted. The psychological literature on predictors of conspiracy beliefs can be divided in approaches either with a pathological (e.g., paranoia) or socio-political focus (e.g., perceived powerlessness). Generally, there is a lack of theoretical frameworks in this young area of research. Meta-analysis revealed that agreeableness, openness to experience, and the remaining Big Five personality factors were not significantly associated with conspiracy beliefs if effect sizes are aggregated. Considerable heterogeneity in designs and operationalization characterizes the field. This article provides an overview of instrumentation, study designs, and current state of knowledge in an effort toward advancement and consensus in the study of conspiracy beliefs.
British colonial rule correlates positively with democracy levels at independence; changes in the international system during the Cold War eliminated the British advantage
British colonialism and democracy: Divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies. Alexander Lee, Jack Paine. Journal of Comparative Economics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.02.001
Highlights
• British colonial rule correlates positively with democracy levels at independence.
• British colonial rule is not strongly associated with democracy levels thirty years after independence.
• Britain tailored decolonization policies to individual colonies’ democratic development.
• Changes in the international system during the Cold War eliminated the British advantage.
Abstract: Did British colonial rule promote post-independence democracy? We provide evidence that the relationship follows a strong temporal pattern. Former British colonies were considerably more democratic than other countries immediately following independence, but subsequent democratic convergence has largely eliminated these differences in the post-Cold War period. Existing theories expounding superior British culture or alternative colonial institutions cannot account for divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies. To explain the time-varying pattern, we analyze European powers’ varying policy approaches to decolonization as well as changes in the international system. Britain more consistently treated competitive democratic elections as a prerequisite for gaining independence, leading to higher initial democracy levels. However, nascent democracies that lacked deep-rooted societal transformation faced challenges to democratic consolidation because of Cold War superpower competition. Later shifts in the international system toward promoting democracy further contributed to convergence by destabilizing colonially rooted dictatorships.
Highlights
• British colonial rule correlates positively with democracy levels at independence.
• British colonial rule is not strongly associated with democracy levels thirty years after independence.
• Britain tailored decolonization policies to individual colonies’ democratic development.
• Changes in the international system during the Cold War eliminated the British advantage.
Abstract: Did British colonial rule promote post-independence democracy? We provide evidence that the relationship follows a strong temporal pattern. Former British colonies were considerably more democratic than other countries immediately following independence, but subsequent democratic convergence has largely eliminated these differences in the post-Cold War period. Existing theories expounding superior British culture or alternative colonial institutions cannot account for divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies. To explain the time-varying pattern, we analyze European powers’ varying policy approaches to decolonization as well as changes in the international system. Britain more consistently treated competitive democratic elections as a prerequisite for gaining independence, leading to higher initial democracy levels. However, nascent democracies that lacked deep-rooted societal transformation faced challenges to democratic consolidation because of Cold War superpower competition. Later shifts in the international system toward promoting democracy further contributed to convergence by destabilizing colonially rooted dictatorships.
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